Getting interesting, and well worth the wait! Looking forward to next installment. Thanks for giving up your time to do these, much appreciated. Enjoy the rest of the w/e. Good luck on the rest of your selections.
@Amy-Ca15 күн бұрын
excellent very explanatory video, can you create one like it for the wnba in the regular season????
@rjvaughn21 күн бұрын
Have you posted your code anywhere? github?
@RaiSantosDev29 күн бұрын
Pretty cool! I'm starting a data analysis project on the NBA right now and this video was really helpful. Subscribed to your channel too
@KerrySportsAnalyst28 күн бұрын
Hi Rai! I'm glad you found this video helpful. Thanks for the sub! Cheers!
@ConnorRudden-ug5pt29 күн бұрын
Hey Kerry, first off I wanna say I’m loving the content. Been making a lot of money betting some of the plays your model has predicted and I wanna say thanks. I’m a positive EV bettor and I use an algorithm to scan the market and find lines where sportsbooks are messing up (getting a play at +180 on fanduel, when every other book in the world has the same bet at +130). Always looking for new ways to beat the books, as I’m sure you are as well. as you know, sportsbooks are billion dollar companies and have models and algorithms of their own and have paid oddsmakers who’s full time job is to accurately set and price lines. So my question is, what makes your model more accurate than a billion dollar company’s whos full time job is setting lines? Now I know, especially during playoffs, that the “true line” can be moved based on the public opinion and supply and demand to balance money on both sides of the bet (ex: Tatum’s point line opens at 26.5 and come gametime has moved to 28.5 because casual bettors love rooting for star player overs so his line gets artificially driven up to balance out the money on both sides) and we can take advantage of that, but was wondering if there’s anything you do that the sportsbooks aren’t ? Thanks Kerry and keep the videos coming my man 💰
@zacharyschneiderman6381Ай бұрын
When are you next posting for the upcoming games?
@KerrySportsAnalystАй бұрын
Hi Zachary! I'll be posting a new video later today, around 6pm EDT. My day job 🙂is keeping me busy. Cheers!
@TonitacoАй бұрын
I get a HTTP Error for too many requests in cell 2 no matter how I adjust the sleep time
@KerrySportsAnalyst28 күн бұрын
Hi Tonitaco! I just ran the same code on my computer. I did not get that error. Have you tried waiting for 1 hour and then running the code again?
@Tonitaco28 күн бұрын
@@KerrySportsAnalyst Ahh I see. Just a case of me being overly anxious. This works for me! Thank you!
@ConnorRudden-ug5ptАй бұрын
The model doesnt account for injuries does it? I feel Like it would be better than 18-20 if you didn’t include games where star players have been injured
@KerrySportsAnalystАй бұрын
Hi Connor! Yes, that is correct. That sounds like a great idea. At least, I should not make those games best bets. Cheers!
@zacharyschneiderman6381Ай бұрын
I absolutely love your content!
@KerrySportsAnalystАй бұрын
Hi Zach! I'm glad you like the videos. I plan on posting NBA videos until the champion is crowned. Cheers!
@mdelair93Ай бұрын
I was hoping you’d do something for NBA or MLB after watching your NFL videos. Thanks for sharing!
@KerrySportsAnalystАй бұрын
Hey there MD! I had to do March Madness and NBA. Looking forward to upgrading my NFL analysis. Cheers!
@BRflaNkАй бұрын
You brought together two of the things I love most: Sports and coding. I'm about to do it for the NFL
@KerrySportsAnalystАй бұрын
Hi BR! You speak my language. I love coding, sports, and analytics. Cheers!
@CobbtradesАй бұрын
good stuff, you can also do the following team_df = team_df.astype({'G': int, 'OPts': int, 'DPts': int, 'ORtg': float, 'DRtg': float, 'Pace': float}) intead of writing in line by line :-)
@KerrySportsAnalystАй бұрын
Hi Cobb! Wow! That certainly makes sense and is much cleaner. Thanks for sharing! Btw, I'm still planning on posting a video on an NBA ML model. It will probably be posted in a couple weeks. Cheers!
@Cobbtrades23 күн бұрын
When is part 2 coming? Thanks
@waterbottle37Ай бұрын
Love the straight forward and detailed explanation of your python code, so helpful
@KerrySportsAnalystАй бұрын
Hi Water! I'm glad you like the video. I try to explain code in the easiest way possible. Especially the tricky parts. Cheers!
@charlesdunn4149Ай бұрын
Nice quick explanation good job best of luck looking forward to Sunday
@KerrySportsAnalystАй бұрын
Hi Charles! Thanks for the compliment. I intentionally meant for it to be quick. Looking forward to making the model video. Cheers!
@zacharyschneiderman6381Ай бұрын
I absolutely love these videos Please keep them up!
@KerrySportsAnalystАй бұрын
Hi Zachary! I'm glad you like the videos. I will absolutely keep them going. Cheers!
@EpicChickens1916Ай бұрын
Great video! Do you have a link to a copy of the Excel sheet?
@KerrySportsAnalystАй бұрын
Hi Epic! I'm glad you liked the video. I will post this on Google docs and provide a link in the description. I'll let you know when it is available in the comments here. Cheers!
@tomkmb4120Ай бұрын
Nice video Kerry - some real interesting matchups in these opening rounds - the play in matchups had a great intensity too
@KerrySportsAnalystАй бұрын
Hi Tom! I'm glad you like the video. I agree, there are some really intriguing matchups in the first round. I would rather see the top players in the playoffs. But with some of them out (Giannis, Butler, etc.) these series take on a whole new outlook. Can't wait to see these games. Cheers!
@charlesdunn4149Ай бұрын
Great info thanks for the mini Python classes, keep them coming!
@KerrySportsAnalystАй бұрын
Hi Charles! You're very welcome! I'm glad you're getting some Python tips from these videos. I'm learning new ways to do things in Python all the time. Cheers!
@CobbtradesАй бұрын
2014 Charlotte was CHA not CHO but lot easier than the method I used thanks!
@KerrySportsAnalystАй бұрын
Hey Cobb! Ah, that's when they were the Bobcats. Thanks for the correction. Glad you got something from the video. Cheers!
@CobbtradesАй бұрын
@@KerrySportsAnalystr u going to do machine learning too or just trends on all sports?
@KerrySportsAnalystАй бұрын
@@Cobbtrades I'm working on a ML model right now. I've created several machine learning sports models, I just haven't published any yet. I'll let you know when I post the video. Stay tuned!
@CobbtradesАй бұрын
@@KerrySportsAnalyst I have a MLB one that's doing pretty good but could probably be better
@kenm4390Ай бұрын
Awesome stuff
@KerrySportsAnalystАй бұрын
Hi Ken! I'm glad you liked the video. Cheers!
@tomkmb4120Ай бұрын
Hey Kerry, just found your channel and I'm loving watching all of your videos. I've been learning Python as a hobby for a couple years but have a love for learning about sports data - so this channel is a god send for me currently. Not sure how much you're interested in the NBA but it would be cool to see something like scraping some NBA player data and then maybe querying to see who would be the top candidates for the various individual awards like MIP, 6MOY based on certain criteria etc - see if there are any outliers etc
@KerrySportsAnalystАй бұрын
Hey Tom! I'm glad you enjoy the videos. We are in the same boat. I love data and sports! Ironically, I am preparing to record a video on scraping NBA data today! So your request is very timely. With regards to player data, I have a scraper for that too. I'll need to run the code to make sure it still functions correctly. I recently read an article that claimed that the PIE statistic is very predictive of the season MVP award. We'll have to take a look at that. I'll come back here and let you know when today's video is available. Stay tuned!
@KerrySportsAnalystАй бұрын
Hi Tom! I just posted a video titled "Scraping NBA Data... With Python!". I'll be posting another video soon on stats that can be used to help predict NBA game outcomes. Cheers!
@KerrySportsAnalystАй бұрын
Happy Eclipse/Championship day everyone! I can't believe we are having a total solar eclipse *and* the NCAA Championship game ON. THE. SAME. DAY! Cheers!
@jayschaap46272 ай бұрын
Is there a kenpom formula for game total points
@CoryM-vq6rc2 ай бұрын
Hello Kerry, I've enjoyed your recent videos on the KenPom Prediction Model. I'm seeing different results...on AL vs Connecticut, updated KenPom: Alabama 125.8, 102.6, 14.21, 72.8 PointDiff =1.9981 Win 57.2%, you show 23.1% Connecticut 126.7, 91.5, 11.31, 65 PointDiff = -1.9981 Win 42.8%, you show 76.9% Has the formula changed? I'm using the same one from your video on N.C. State vs UNC. Thanks!
@KerrySportsAnalyst2 ай бұрын
Hi Cory! I'm glad you've enjoyed the videos. With regards to your calculations, it looks like the third numbers are off. The third number (AdjEM) is just the first number (AdjO) minus the second number (AdjD). In other words, AdjEM = AdjO - AdjD. So those numbers should be 23.27 for Alabama and 35.21 for Connecticut. While I did modify the formulas slightly, the win probabilities should be within 1% of numbers in this video. Let me know if this works out. Cheers!
@CoryM-vq6rc2 ай бұрын
@@KerrySportsAnalyst Got it, thanks! I was incorrectly using the AdjEM for the Strength of Schedule. Thanks again! Cheers!
@terencewinters21542 ай бұрын
Sorry to see a good thing coming to a close . However there's an 11 year old girl inn Raleigh who has beaten you chat gpt musks Grok and 25 or 30 million others at 109 and at 99.9% tile. That's what 10, ooo years of eyeballing for sorting evolution will do . Still enjoyed your process.
@KerrySportsAnalyst2 ай бұрын
Hi Terence! It's been fun! I appreciate your comments and insight. I have no doubt an 11 year old can beat the entire field. I already have some ideas for next year. Looking forward to it. Cheers!
@terencewinters21542 ай бұрын
@@KerrySportsAnalyst it will be hard for us hunters to catch up with the gatherers . As a former teacher and mailman I can tell you in general they're better at the sort.
@antoniofelton85692 ай бұрын
Championship will be Nc state n uconn
@KerrySportsAnalyst2 ай бұрын
Hi Antonio! One question though, who on NC State is going to guard Edey? They don't want Burns to pick up fouls, right? Cheers!
@terencewinters21542 ай бұрын
5 of the 8 have oers over 120 . State Clemson tenn. Do not . But tenn der has steadily improved. Uconn showing an oer of 127 . Is a new high . Offenses are soaring. Some defenses have not improved . You have some good brackets beating ai selections.
@KerrySportsAnalyst2 ай бұрын
Hi Terence! Those are great observations. You're convincing me that great offenses are taking charge in the tournament. Tennessee has the best defense still alive in the tournament. We'll see how well they do against Purdue's #3 offense. Can't wait to see these games. I truly appreciate your support and comments! Cheers!
@KerrySportsAnalyst2 ай бұрын
Hi Terence! Did you say that ChatGPT has a bracket on ESPN? Can you tell me how to find the AI brackets? I'm very curious to see their picks. Thanks!
@terencewinters21542 ай бұрын
@@KerrySportsAnalyst just Google chat gpt bracket you tube . And same for Ai grok . They have busted brackets too.
@terencewinters21542 ай бұрын
@@KerrySportsAnalyst my thinking now is the original historical minimums you originally highlighted are higher for offense now and defense minimums are higher . Bama for example Illinois another bother over 100 .
@terencewinters21542 ай бұрын
@@KerrySportsAnalyst my theory on states recent success is a little different having little to do with direct data . And more to do with uniqueness of lefthanded chirality or see cube roots . Dj burnes lefty center provides a weird inside spin and passing ability few teams can cope with . Even his own mates have had to adjust but think of a conch shell twist doing opposite of normal path integral. Tenn. A few years ago experimented with 9 lefties OK success but not major. Only like 12 % of pop is lefty . Now there are some drawbacks such as higher frequency of accidents and injury but for example who has most nba rings . 2 lefties Russell and Jackson.
@J916O2 ай бұрын
Win percentage/probability. is that the percentage they would cover the spread or just win in general?
@KerrySportsAnalyst2 ай бұрын
Hi J9160! The probabilities in this video are for just winning the games. Check out my new video titled "A KenPom Betting Model" to see how to get spreads and totals from the KenPom stats. Cheers! kzread.info/dash/bejne/q3yZubt9fNCtn9Y.html
@joaoclaudiovieira45492 ай бұрын
Great analysis as always. Cheers and BOL!
@KerrySportsAnalyst2 ай бұрын
Hi Joao! Thank you for the kind words. I'm glad you enjoyed the video. Cheers!
@aragorn3182 ай бұрын
KenPom prediction is just the same thing as picking the higher ranked teams in all cases.
@joinjen38542 ай бұрын
Nope. Kp predicted upsets already. You are not paying attention.
@aragorn3182 ай бұрын
@@joinjen3854 there's not a lot of those
@ryanhemesath66862 ай бұрын
Except they missed on auburn Kentucky st Mary’s… ok.
@KerrySportsAnalyst2 ай бұрын
Hi Aragorn! You are correct when it comes to the picks in this video (for the Sweet 16). However, in the first two rounds, KenPom predicted 5 lower seeds to win. It got 3 out of those 5 picks correct. I think this also points to how closely the selection committee aligns with the KenPom stats. Where the KenPom stats were different, KenPom got 3 of 5 correct. Cheers!
@sack58272 ай бұрын
This is cool and all, but who will cover spreads?
@KerrySportsAnalyst2 ай бұрын
Hi Sack! Check out my new video titled "A KenPom Betting Model". It shows how to get the spreads, the totals, and the team totals using KenPom stats. Cheers!
@terencewinters21542 ай бұрын
Good job stats updated . The eyeball test can detect occasionally a chalk mismatch or a hotness factor. ( though I know stats people deny the later exist ) the eyeball may also be reflecting a jaundiced recency bias so check your self . 😊 Clemson shouldn't have beaten baylor by chalk but they did -defense and late game composure prevailed.
@KerrySportsAnalyst2 ай бұрын
Hey Terence! I absolutely agree with you. While I present the data and the stats in my videos, I also look at experience, head coach, and recent wins against other tournament teams before making final decisions. Experience is huge! Cheers!
@bigmombo39892 ай бұрын
Baylor choked that one away. Clemson tried to lose, but Baylor wouldn't let them. That being said, glad to be playing Clemson, rather than Baylor.
@terencewinters21542 ай бұрын
@@bigmombo3989 sorry I didn't see it but tigers from portal played more composed than bears from portal . Wildcats will be tested for a half but data says its a 10 plus win.
@user-of7jx8fn8q2 ай бұрын
Been an unusually chalk march madness so far, so if you made your bracket based off kenpom you're probably doing pretty well
@KerrySportsAnalyst2 ай бұрын
Hi User! I totally agree. Chalk makes KenPom look good. But KenPom did get 2 of 3 upsets correct though. Cheers! ❌(11) New Mexico over (6) Clemson ✅(10) Colorado over (7) Florida ✅(5) Gonzaga over (4) Kansas
@user-of7jx8fn8q2 ай бұрын
@@KerrySportsAnalyst Yeah fair call. I took all 3 of those upsets in my brackets as well. Colorado was a sweat. Got Zags upsetting Purdue now
@ryanhemesath66862 ай бұрын
Auburn? Lol.
@KerrySportsAnalyst2 ай бұрын
@@ryanhemesath6686 Hi Ryan! Good point. When it comes to predictive models, when the stats used are much better for one team (Auburn) versus another team (Yale), the model will definitely pick the better team. But in a single elimination tournament, wild upsets will happen, for sure. Cheers!
@terencewinters21542 ай бұрын
I think Kerry's error here is that offenses have gotten stronger correspondingly defenses weaker . I think D weakness stretches the contender pool to those who have 98 or under and offense of 118 or better. With a single outlier . ( ? ) otherwise Kerry has really done the stat work. 4 of 6 teams he listed as contender don't fit even his parameters . Normalization - requires some adjustments that even Ken pom doesn't use .
@KerrySportsAnalyst2 ай бұрын
Hi Terence! Thanks for your comment. It is very insightful. It would take a season or two for the stats to "catch up" to what is happening. With regards to 4 of 6 teams not fitting my parameters, I'm pretty sure they did when I made this video. Since KenPom stats are updated after each day, the stats might be different now. Cheers!
@terencewinters21542 ай бұрын
@@KerrySportsAnalyst Kerry don't take offense I think what you did is FABULOUS !!! HOWEVER I DID CHECK ON THIS YEARS # OF TEAMS SCORING 80 + POINTS VS LAST YEAR IT WAS LIKE 46 TO 23. REASONS BEING 1. Portal proven scorers . 2. More mature decision makers 3. Greater emphasis on 3 ball. As part of my "renormalization " of the data set YOU selected I just temporized to first 118 adjo then 120 adjo and upped the adjd to 98 . So my bracket picks are like 40 for 52 and yesterday's 8/8 . I think we are beating chat gpt and musks Grok and vegas models . So keep it up. My problem with the historical data set is this. Each game is an anomaly and each years data reflective of that year's set of anomalies. Yet there are strong threads of consistent outliers such as aztecs D . Does defense win championships ? And were a houston to win would it be more so for its adjd ? 🤔
@charlesdunn41492 ай бұрын
Great info Kerry, Appreciate your time & work
@KerrySportsAnalyst2 ай бұрын
Hi Charles! Thank you. I appreciate your support. Cheers!
@joinjen38542 ай бұрын
#4 Kansas lost to the Zags, like kenpom said.
@ZBatt12 ай бұрын
Man KenPom is so wrong 😂
@KerrySportsAnalyst2 ай бұрын
Hi ZBatt! Check out my new video. Here are the KenPom records for the first four days of the tournament. Day 1: 12 - 4 Day 2: 9 - 7 Day 3: 7 - 1 Day 4: 6 - 2 That is an overall 70.8% win rate. Cheers!
@gagemoore58642 ай бұрын
Hey thanks for making an update video there is a lot of good data in here however I do have a suggestion. While I personally loved seeing the graph of upset seeds vs the high seeds and don’t necessarily want to see that disappear I’m wondering if you would consider showing historical data for the current matchups. For example you talked about 14 vs 6 having no wins and that being a bad sign for Oakland but it is actually 14 vs 11. I would love to see a chart for the historical results of those matchups as well. Again, thanks for putting out another video for this tournament. Looking forward to future updates.
@KerrySportsAnalyst2 ай бұрын
Hey Gage! Thanks for the advice. I think that's a great idea and I will definitely put that in my next video. Oops, I misspoke about Oakland. My slides are correct though. Cheers!
@alancoonfare89312 ай бұрын
U guys suck at picking. Why do we listen tp your 'expertise"
@cd2_2 ай бұрын
So aren’t you just going to end up with a chalk bracket from elite eight on if you’re just basing off kenpom efficiency?
@brothgarabernathy45682 ай бұрын
With this iteration of the spreadsheet there is still potential for randomization to happen but as with any multi draw scenario the more you draw the more likely the higher probabilities are to be selected.
@KerrySportsAnalyst2 ай бұрын
Hi cd2! I really like broths reply. I couldn't have said it better. Cheers!
@zacharysmith76212 ай бұрын
For round 1, Kentucky fits the AdjO >120.7(88% win) and the AdjD >102.6(90% lose). Curious to hear your thoughts on their matchup round 1?
@KerrySportsAnalyst2 ай бұрын
Hi Zachary! I totally understand the confusion here. These are conflicting stats. When this happens, I resort to the matchup. According to the KenPom prediction formula, Kentucky has an 86.2% chance of defeating Oakland. So I am picking Kentucky. Hope this helps!
@Priust1892 ай бұрын
Can anyone not pick Connecticut
@KerrySportsAnalyst2 ай бұрын
Hi Priust! It's hard to not go with the heavy favorite to win it all. However, I am picking multiple champions since I'm entering 25 brackets in the ESPN Challenge. Cheers!
@experiencethebestdogsirl87892 ай бұрын
Another great video!
@KerrySportsAnalyst2 ай бұрын
Hi Experience! Thank you. I appreciate your comment. Cheers!
@jackwaserman92352 ай бұрын
WHY NOT DO AN UPDATED BRACKET PREDICTION FOR EACH GAME?
@KerrySportsAnalyst2 ай бұрын
Hi Jack! Do you mean after every game? I plan on posting videos after each round to see how our brackets are doing. Looking forward to it. Cheers!
@themaverickfan2 ай бұрын
How did you find that dataset?
@paulo91532 ай бұрын
you have to pay for it
@KerrySportsAnalyst2 ай бұрын
Hi MaverickFan! While I do not necessarily recommend paying for data, the annual subscription fee for KenPom is aroud $22. Also, you can see the pre-tourney data for 2024 before the games start today (3/21/2024). Cheers!
@kellyallen85282 ай бұрын
Iowa St, Kentucky, Tennessee, and UNC all day
@KerrySportsAnalyst2 ай бұрын
Hi Kelly! I like each of those picks! My only concern is that Kentucky's defense is not too good. But they certainly have a chance. Cheers!
@kellyallen85282 ай бұрын
@@KerrySportsAnalyst have a $10 parlay in that final four to win a tab over $10k. Maybe I'll get lucky and FAU/Auburn will knock out UConn for me!
@chrisfecteau63342 ай бұрын
no computer needed - Samford sends kansas... home....time to comb your hairpiece mcneese over Zags... james madison over wisconsin... Grand Canyon sends St Marys home...
@KerrySportsAnalyst2 ай бұрын
Hi Chris! I literally laughed out loud when I read your comment about combing my hairpiece. It might sound odd, but I appreciate that kind of humor. But as David Letterman once said, "if this was a hairpiece, why would I pick this one?" Lol. Cheers!
@chrisramsden31142 ай бұрын
This aged well
@chrisfecteau63342 ай бұрын
funny how refs just wouldnt believe in calling the game as it played ....instead by god we cant let samford beat kansas
@chrisramsden31142 ай бұрын
@@chrisfecteau6334 i think i missed that play . Was dealing w a contrversial fantasy football trade.
@chrisfecteau63342 ай бұрын
must have missed most of 2nd half....oh well...refs dictate another one...
@kingtaj2 ай бұрын
This is exactly what I was looking for, thanks for the analysis. It would be really interesting to do a similar analysis for upsets looking for statistical significance of the kenpom "four factors".
@KerrySportsAnalyst2 ай бұрын
Hi King! I'm glad you like the video. I agree. I just posted a video on how to find upsets. It uses randomization of KenPom probabilities to pick a few upsets. We'll see how it works. Cheers!
@johnplegend7862 ай бұрын
Does the Kenpom formula adjust odds for style intricacies? As a for instance, take the Bama vs St Mary’s potential matchup. They have totally different tempos and play styles. Does Kenpom take that into account for the formula? Or is it just taking point spreads implied by adj em and basing probabilities on that?
@KerrySportsAnalyst2 ай бұрын
Hi John! Yes, the adjusted tempo (AdjT) is included in the prediction formula. In fact, it is essential to determine how many possessions each team will have during a game. It then uses AdjO to predict the number of points each team will score. I'll try to discuss this in my next video. Cheers!
@ryankniz2 ай бұрын
Something isn’t right. Using the methodology you outlined in the previous video(and at the top of this video to show the contenders), Tennessee should beat Purdue. What am I missing?
@KerrySportsAnalyst2 ай бұрын
Hi Ryan! According to the video "Picking the Overall Champion" Purdue does not belong to the list of contenders. However, in a head-to-head matchup, Purdue is favored to beat Tennessee 57% to 43%. These are not necessarily conflicting since Purdue could beat Tennessee and then lose in the Final Four. However, since I am participating in the ESPN Challenge, I'm going to pick Purdue to be a champion in 1 or 2 brackets and Tennessee to be champion in 1 bracket. Trying to spread out my picks. Cheers!
Пікірлер
Getting interesting, and well worth the wait! Looking forward to next installment. Thanks for giving up your time to do these, much appreciated. Enjoy the rest of the w/e. Good luck on the rest of your selections.
excellent very explanatory video, can you create one like it for the wnba in the regular season????
Have you posted your code anywhere? github?
Pretty cool! I'm starting a data analysis project on the NBA right now and this video was really helpful. Subscribed to your channel too
Hi Rai! I'm glad you found this video helpful. Thanks for the sub! Cheers!
Hey Kerry, first off I wanna say I’m loving the content. Been making a lot of money betting some of the plays your model has predicted and I wanna say thanks. I’m a positive EV bettor and I use an algorithm to scan the market and find lines where sportsbooks are messing up (getting a play at +180 on fanduel, when every other book in the world has the same bet at +130). Always looking for new ways to beat the books, as I’m sure you are as well. as you know, sportsbooks are billion dollar companies and have models and algorithms of their own and have paid oddsmakers who’s full time job is to accurately set and price lines. So my question is, what makes your model more accurate than a billion dollar company’s whos full time job is setting lines? Now I know, especially during playoffs, that the “true line” can be moved based on the public opinion and supply and demand to balance money on both sides of the bet (ex: Tatum’s point line opens at 26.5 and come gametime has moved to 28.5 because casual bettors love rooting for star player overs so his line gets artificially driven up to balance out the money on both sides) and we can take advantage of that, but was wondering if there’s anything you do that the sportsbooks aren’t ? Thanks Kerry and keep the videos coming my man 💰
When are you next posting for the upcoming games?
Hi Zachary! I'll be posting a new video later today, around 6pm EDT. My day job 🙂is keeping me busy. Cheers!
I get a HTTP Error for too many requests in cell 2 no matter how I adjust the sleep time
Hi Tonitaco! I just ran the same code on my computer. I did not get that error. Have you tried waiting for 1 hour and then running the code again?
@@KerrySportsAnalyst Ahh I see. Just a case of me being overly anxious. This works for me! Thank you!
The model doesnt account for injuries does it? I feel Like it would be better than 18-20 if you didn’t include games where star players have been injured
Hi Connor! Yes, that is correct. That sounds like a great idea. At least, I should not make those games best bets. Cheers!
I absolutely love your content!
Hi Zach! I'm glad you like the videos. I plan on posting NBA videos until the champion is crowned. Cheers!
I was hoping you’d do something for NBA or MLB after watching your NFL videos. Thanks for sharing!
Hey there MD! I had to do March Madness and NBA. Looking forward to upgrading my NFL analysis. Cheers!
You brought together two of the things I love most: Sports and coding. I'm about to do it for the NFL
Hi BR! You speak my language. I love coding, sports, and analytics. Cheers!
good stuff, you can also do the following team_df = team_df.astype({'G': int, 'OPts': int, 'DPts': int, 'ORtg': float, 'DRtg': float, 'Pace': float}) intead of writing in line by line :-)
Hi Cobb! Wow! That certainly makes sense and is much cleaner. Thanks for sharing! Btw, I'm still planning on posting a video on an NBA ML model. It will probably be posted in a couple weeks. Cheers!
When is part 2 coming? Thanks
Love the straight forward and detailed explanation of your python code, so helpful
Hi Water! I'm glad you like the video. I try to explain code in the easiest way possible. Especially the tricky parts. Cheers!
Nice quick explanation good job best of luck looking forward to Sunday
Hi Charles! Thanks for the compliment. I intentionally meant for it to be quick. Looking forward to making the model video. Cheers!
I absolutely love these videos Please keep them up!
Hi Zachary! I'm glad you like the videos. I will absolutely keep them going. Cheers!
Great video! Do you have a link to a copy of the Excel sheet?
Hi Epic! I'm glad you liked the video. I will post this on Google docs and provide a link in the description. I'll let you know when it is available in the comments here. Cheers!
Nice video Kerry - some real interesting matchups in these opening rounds - the play in matchups had a great intensity too
Hi Tom! I'm glad you like the video. I agree, there are some really intriguing matchups in the first round. I would rather see the top players in the playoffs. But with some of them out (Giannis, Butler, etc.) these series take on a whole new outlook. Can't wait to see these games. Cheers!
Great info thanks for the mini Python classes, keep them coming!
Hi Charles! You're very welcome! I'm glad you're getting some Python tips from these videos. I'm learning new ways to do things in Python all the time. Cheers!
2014 Charlotte was CHA not CHO but lot easier than the method I used thanks!
Hey Cobb! Ah, that's when they were the Bobcats. Thanks for the correction. Glad you got something from the video. Cheers!
@@KerrySportsAnalystr u going to do machine learning too or just trends on all sports?
@@Cobbtrades I'm working on a ML model right now. I've created several machine learning sports models, I just haven't published any yet. I'll let you know when I post the video. Stay tuned!
@@KerrySportsAnalyst I have a MLB one that's doing pretty good but could probably be better
Awesome stuff
Hi Ken! I'm glad you liked the video. Cheers!
Hey Kerry, just found your channel and I'm loving watching all of your videos. I've been learning Python as a hobby for a couple years but have a love for learning about sports data - so this channel is a god send for me currently. Not sure how much you're interested in the NBA but it would be cool to see something like scraping some NBA player data and then maybe querying to see who would be the top candidates for the various individual awards like MIP, 6MOY based on certain criteria etc - see if there are any outliers etc
Hey Tom! I'm glad you enjoy the videos. We are in the same boat. I love data and sports! Ironically, I am preparing to record a video on scraping NBA data today! So your request is very timely. With regards to player data, I have a scraper for that too. I'll need to run the code to make sure it still functions correctly. I recently read an article that claimed that the PIE statistic is very predictive of the season MVP award. We'll have to take a look at that. I'll come back here and let you know when today's video is available. Stay tuned!
Hi Tom! I just posted a video titled "Scraping NBA Data... With Python!". I'll be posting another video soon on stats that can be used to help predict NBA game outcomes. Cheers!
Happy Eclipse/Championship day everyone! I can't believe we are having a total solar eclipse *and* the NCAA Championship game ON. THE. SAME. DAY! Cheers!
Is there a kenpom formula for game total points
Hello Kerry, I've enjoyed your recent videos on the KenPom Prediction Model. I'm seeing different results...on AL vs Connecticut, updated KenPom: Alabama 125.8, 102.6, 14.21, 72.8 PointDiff =1.9981 Win 57.2%, you show 23.1% Connecticut 126.7, 91.5, 11.31, 65 PointDiff = -1.9981 Win 42.8%, you show 76.9% Has the formula changed? I'm using the same one from your video on N.C. State vs UNC. Thanks!
Hi Cory! I'm glad you've enjoyed the videos. With regards to your calculations, it looks like the third numbers are off. The third number (AdjEM) is just the first number (AdjO) minus the second number (AdjD). In other words, AdjEM = AdjO - AdjD. So those numbers should be 23.27 for Alabama and 35.21 for Connecticut. While I did modify the formulas slightly, the win probabilities should be within 1% of numbers in this video. Let me know if this works out. Cheers!
@@KerrySportsAnalyst Got it, thanks! I was incorrectly using the AdjEM for the Strength of Schedule. Thanks again! Cheers!
Sorry to see a good thing coming to a close . However there's an 11 year old girl inn Raleigh who has beaten you chat gpt musks Grok and 25 or 30 million others at 109 and at 99.9% tile. That's what 10, ooo years of eyeballing for sorting evolution will do . Still enjoyed your process.
Hi Terence! It's been fun! I appreciate your comments and insight. I have no doubt an 11 year old can beat the entire field. I already have some ideas for next year. Looking forward to it. Cheers!
@@KerrySportsAnalyst it will be hard for us hunters to catch up with the gatherers . As a former teacher and mailman I can tell you in general they're better at the sort.
Championship will be Nc state n uconn
Hi Antonio! One question though, who on NC State is going to guard Edey? They don't want Burns to pick up fouls, right? Cheers!
5 of the 8 have oers over 120 . State Clemson tenn. Do not . But tenn der has steadily improved. Uconn showing an oer of 127 . Is a new high . Offenses are soaring. Some defenses have not improved . You have some good brackets beating ai selections.
Hi Terence! Those are great observations. You're convincing me that great offenses are taking charge in the tournament. Tennessee has the best defense still alive in the tournament. We'll see how well they do against Purdue's #3 offense. Can't wait to see these games. I truly appreciate your support and comments! Cheers!
Hi Terence! Did you say that ChatGPT has a bracket on ESPN? Can you tell me how to find the AI brackets? I'm very curious to see their picks. Thanks!
@@KerrySportsAnalyst just Google chat gpt bracket you tube . And same for Ai grok . They have busted brackets too.
@@KerrySportsAnalyst my thinking now is the original historical minimums you originally highlighted are higher for offense now and defense minimums are higher . Bama for example Illinois another bother over 100 .
@@KerrySportsAnalyst my theory on states recent success is a little different having little to do with direct data . And more to do with uniqueness of lefthanded chirality or see cube roots . Dj burnes lefty center provides a weird inside spin and passing ability few teams can cope with . Even his own mates have had to adjust but think of a conch shell twist doing opposite of normal path integral. Tenn. A few years ago experimented with 9 lefties OK success but not major. Only like 12 % of pop is lefty . Now there are some drawbacks such as higher frequency of accidents and injury but for example who has most nba rings . 2 lefties Russell and Jackson.
Win percentage/probability. is that the percentage they would cover the spread or just win in general?
Hi J9160! The probabilities in this video are for just winning the games. Check out my new video titled "A KenPom Betting Model" to see how to get spreads and totals from the KenPom stats. Cheers! kzread.info/dash/bejne/q3yZubt9fNCtn9Y.html
Great analysis as always. Cheers and BOL!
Hi Joao! Thank you for the kind words. I'm glad you enjoyed the video. Cheers!
KenPom prediction is just the same thing as picking the higher ranked teams in all cases.
Nope. Kp predicted upsets already. You are not paying attention.
@@joinjen3854 there's not a lot of those
Except they missed on auburn Kentucky st Mary’s… ok.
Hi Aragorn! You are correct when it comes to the picks in this video (for the Sweet 16). However, in the first two rounds, KenPom predicted 5 lower seeds to win. It got 3 out of those 5 picks correct. I think this also points to how closely the selection committee aligns with the KenPom stats. Where the KenPom stats were different, KenPom got 3 of 5 correct. Cheers!
This is cool and all, but who will cover spreads?
Hi Sack! Check out my new video titled "A KenPom Betting Model". It shows how to get the spreads, the totals, and the team totals using KenPom stats. Cheers!
Good job stats updated . The eyeball test can detect occasionally a chalk mismatch or a hotness factor. ( though I know stats people deny the later exist ) the eyeball may also be reflecting a jaundiced recency bias so check your self . 😊 Clemson shouldn't have beaten baylor by chalk but they did -defense and late game composure prevailed.
Hey Terence! I absolutely agree with you. While I present the data and the stats in my videos, I also look at experience, head coach, and recent wins against other tournament teams before making final decisions. Experience is huge! Cheers!
Baylor choked that one away. Clemson tried to lose, but Baylor wouldn't let them. That being said, glad to be playing Clemson, rather than Baylor.
@@bigmombo3989 sorry I didn't see it but tigers from portal played more composed than bears from portal . Wildcats will be tested for a half but data says its a 10 plus win.
Been an unusually chalk march madness so far, so if you made your bracket based off kenpom you're probably doing pretty well
Hi User! I totally agree. Chalk makes KenPom look good. But KenPom did get 2 of 3 upsets correct though. Cheers! ❌(11) New Mexico over (6) Clemson ✅(10) Colorado over (7) Florida ✅(5) Gonzaga over (4) Kansas
@@KerrySportsAnalyst Yeah fair call. I took all 3 of those upsets in my brackets as well. Colorado was a sweat. Got Zags upsetting Purdue now
Auburn? Lol.
@@ryanhemesath6686 Hi Ryan! Good point. When it comes to predictive models, when the stats used are much better for one team (Auburn) versus another team (Yale), the model will definitely pick the better team. But in a single elimination tournament, wild upsets will happen, for sure. Cheers!
I think Kerry's error here is that offenses have gotten stronger correspondingly defenses weaker . I think D weakness stretches the contender pool to those who have 98 or under and offense of 118 or better. With a single outlier . ( ? ) otherwise Kerry has really done the stat work. 4 of 6 teams he listed as contender don't fit even his parameters . Normalization - requires some adjustments that even Ken pom doesn't use .
Hi Terence! Thanks for your comment. It is very insightful. It would take a season or two for the stats to "catch up" to what is happening. With regards to 4 of 6 teams not fitting my parameters, I'm pretty sure they did when I made this video. Since KenPom stats are updated after each day, the stats might be different now. Cheers!
@@KerrySportsAnalyst Kerry don't take offense I think what you did is FABULOUS !!! HOWEVER I DID CHECK ON THIS YEARS # OF TEAMS SCORING 80 + POINTS VS LAST YEAR IT WAS LIKE 46 TO 23. REASONS BEING 1. Portal proven scorers . 2. More mature decision makers 3. Greater emphasis on 3 ball. As part of my "renormalization " of the data set YOU selected I just temporized to first 118 adjo then 120 adjo and upped the adjd to 98 . So my bracket picks are like 40 for 52 and yesterday's 8/8 . I think we are beating chat gpt and musks Grok and vegas models . So keep it up. My problem with the historical data set is this. Each game is an anomaly and each years data reflective of that year's set of anomalies. Yet there are strong threads of consistent outliers such as aztecs D . Does defense win championships ? And were a houston to win would it be more so for its adjd ? 🤔
Great info Kerry, Appreciate your time & work
Hi Charles! Thank you. I appreciate your support. Cheers!
#4 Kansas lost to the Zags, like kenpom said.
Man KenPom is so wrong 😂
Hi ZBatt! Check out my new video. Here are the KenPom records for the first four days of the tournament. Day 1: 12 - 4 Day 2: 9 - 7 Day 3: 7 - 1 Day 4: 6 - 2 That is an overall 70.8% win rate. Cheers!
Hey thanks for making an update video there is a lot of good data in here however I do have a suggestion. While I personally loved seeing the graph of upset seeds vs the high seeds and don’t necessarily want to see that disappear I’m wondering if you would consider showing historical data for the current matchups. For example you talked about 14 vs 6 having no wins and that being a bad sign for Oakland but it is actually 14 vs 11. I would love to see a chart for the historical results of those matchups as well. Again, thanks for putting out another video for this tournament. Looking forward to future updates.
Hey Gage! Thanks for the advice. I think that's a great idea and I will definitely put that in my next video. Oops, I misspoke about Oakland. My slides are correct though. Cheers!
U guys suck at picking. Why do we listen tp your 'expertise"
So aren’t you just going to end up with a chalk bracket from elite eight on if you’re just basing off kenpom efficiency?
With this iteration of the spreadsheet there is still potential for randomization to happen but as with any multi draw scenario the more you draw the more likely the higher probabilities are to be selected.
Hi cd2! I really like broths reply. I couldn't have said it better. Cheers!
For round 1, Kentucky fits the AdjO >120.7(88% win) and the AdjD >102.6(90% lose). Curious to hear your thoughts on their matchup round 1?
Hi Zachary! I totally understand the confusion here. These are conflicting stats. When this happens, I resort to the matchup. According to the KenPom prediction formula, Kentucky has an 86.2% chance of defeating Oakland. So I am picking Kentucky. Hope this helps!
Can anyone not pick Connecticut
Hi Priust! It's hard to not go with the heavy favorite to win it all. However, I am picking multiple champions since I'm entering 25 brackets in the ESPN Challenge. Cheers!
Another great video!
Hi Experience! Thank you. I appreciate your comment. Cheers!
WHY NOT DO AN UPDATED BRACKET PREDICTION FOR EACH GAME?
Hi Jack! Do you mean after every game? I plan on posting videos after each round to see how our brackets are doing. Looking forward to it. Cheers!
How did you find that dataset?
you have to pay for it
Hi MaverickFan! While I do not necessarily recommend paying for data, the annual subscription fee for KenPom is aroud $22. Also, you can see the pre-tourney data for 2024 before the games start today (3/21/2024). Cheers!
Iowa St, Kentucky, Tennessee, and UNC all day
Hi Kelly! I like each of those picks! My only concern is that Kentucky's defense is not too good. But they certainly have a chance. Cheers!
@@KerrySportsAnalyst have a $10 parlay in that final four to win a tab over $10k. Maybe I'll get lucky and FAU/Auburn will knock out UConn for me!
no computer needed - Samford sends kansas... home....time to comb your hairpiece mcneese over Zags... james madison over wisconsin... Grand Canyon sends St Marys home...
Hi Chris! I literally laughed out loud when I read your comment about combing my hairpiece. It might sound odd, but I appreciate that kind of humor. But as David Letterman once said, "if this was a hairpiece, why would I pick this one?" Lol. Cheers!
This aged well
funny how refs just wouldnt believe in calling the game as it played ....instead by god we cant let samford beat kansas
@@chrisfecteau6334 i think i missed that play . Was dealing w a contrversial fantasy football trade.
must have missed most of 2nd half....oh well...refs dictate another one...
This is exactly what I was looking for, thanks for the analysis. It would be really interesting to do a similar analysis for upsets looking for statistical significance of the kenpom "four factors".
Hi King! I'm glad you like the video. I agree. I just posted a video on how to find upsets. It uses randomization of KenPom probabilities to pick a few upsets. We'll see how it works. Cheers!
Does the Kenpom formula adjust odds for style intricacies? As a for instance, take the Bama vs St Mary’s potential matchup. They have totally different tempos and play styles. Does Kenpom take that into account for the formula? Or is it just taking point spreads implied by adj em and basing probabilities on that?
Hi John! Yes, the adjusted tempo (AdjT) is included in the prediction formula. In fact, it is essential to determine how many possessions each team will have during a game. It then uses AdjO to predict the number of points each team will score. I'll try to discuss this in my next video. Cheers!
Something isn’t right. Using the methodology you outlined in the previous video(and at the top of this video to show the contenders), Tennessee should beat Purdue. What am I missing?
Hi Ryan! According to the video "Picking the Overall Champion" Purdue does not belong to the list of contenders. However, in a head-to-head matchup, Purdue is favored to beat Tennessee 57% to 43%. These are not necessarily conflicting since Purdue could beat Tennessee and then lose in the Final Four. However, since I am participating in the ESPN Challenge, I'm going to pick Purdue to be a champion in 1 or 2 brackets and Tennessee to be champion in 1 bracket. Trying to spread out my picks. Cheers!