A channel that Separates Investment Facts from Financial Fiction:
By analysing the financial scenes from movies and series like Billions, Succession, or The Big Short to figure out what's right, what's wrong, and what can be improved.
By conducting Due Diligence on asset classes, products and startups using footage from clips and movies to make it tangible
Because you can entertain yourself into becoming a more empowered investor!
InvestOrama is created by George Aliferis, CAIA, a reformed sales in derivatives and alternative products for investment banks. George is optimistic about investing but believes there's a gap between the resources people need to make educated financial decisions and the way investment products are marketed.
His mission is to support the true democratisation of finance, empowering people to make smart, informed investment decisions.
Пікірлер
SPOILER ALERT!! SHE IS A VEGAN(in the show at least)
Still fall short from billions and the MC she just never did have any moments of greatness. Only luck and hand out opportunities. Man i love when she got fired in the last episode. Remove her and this show will go sky rocket.
I think she'll be back in season 3 though. She's interesting because she's bad!
@@InvestOrama hahaha Rishi is a way better character than her. Yeah i agree these some kind of a masochistic enticement in this series for some people hahahhaha
Maybe Rishi needs a spinoff
Not a good explainer at all man. C’mon.
Oh no... What should I improve
No worries, you're explanations are based on the assumption that your viewers have specific trading/market knowledge- Perhaps give more anecdotes so non-finance people can grasp more easily.
@rahimzayd that's excellent feedback and I'm aware of it but have not figured out a way to do it (nor spend time to think about it) but I definitely want to so something that works for beginners
I've a question; where can you get this data on avionics and rental car fleet movements? Isn't that data encrypted for privacy reasons?
Well, I've got a video that answers that... kzread.info/dash/bejne/rKWYytt-ZZTWqZM.html (check out Brightdata)
The more I listen to this the more I sense retail trading is super unethical at its core... and it is only legal because of the power of those who run it. So many companies (and therefore people) depend on bets, how a trader convinces a seller... or am I missing something? I know I sound so naive lol but I am still amazed that wars and trade are still accepted.
Retail trading... do you mean what's happening on Gamestop?
@@InvestOrama I mean retail trading in general, the whole speculation scheme.
@@gabrielafanelli3453 speculation is a game, and there are rules, so I don't think it's unethical but I think it's stupid, you're much better off investing and trade as little as possible
It's on half a billion
Yes
I think u Missing key dialogues
What do you mean?
good at clickbait, bad at math
Best skill combo to become a successful youtuber!
How to win in 2024!
Oh shit! Nicole's options are in the money lol
Oh yes! Well done Harper She's had some good ideas on real estate too
Very interesting! What's your background?
I used to do Harper's job... pretty much the same thing at DB, but not as successful!
You don't need a family office to chill and invest, check out my friends at wealthyhood.com/
Is this really S3E12???
Did I get it wrong?
Yes
✅
@@InvestOrama thanks, I have been looking for this pitch
All i'm hearing is how the ordinary person is getting f'd
That's definitely a possibility - although this is a bit like Gamestop where the little guys are taking on the big ones
If she thinks housing market will struggle, housebuilders not the only option here. Housebuilders about new homes so its also highly correlated to employment, debt rates and policies (such as FTB). In the show, the research chap says the bank is confident on housing market so they could simply design a total swap (derivative) on UK annual residential returns(IPD). It might cost them a bit, but thats the insurance for a possible payout.. To create such SWAP you also need to have opposite party who thinks completely opposite (C:
Good idea - the problem is that this index is not treadeable. You can't just find another counterparty, you need a market makers. For property there was one attempt at creating a market on the actual property prices by creating future, but it failed (the futures are still there but the volume is 0).
If you enjoyed this video - please share it! So many people are confused and will be fooled by the IRR!
Thanks man, i have a question how to tackle such sales persons: "what should be my counter?"
That is the trillion dollar "democrtization of alternatives" question! I think the first answer is "do not be sold to" these are complex, strategic investments that require due diligence. You could also ask questions: is this an IRR? If yes, what is the TPVI (or other ratio) and dig into the real performance? If you are an individual investor going through an advisor, you should also know the incentives and sales commissions: for Blackstone's BREIT it's 3% upfront - so of course they are going to push it!
@@InvestOrama great answer, stay connected man need to know more Ratios and 2-20 standards are just numbers now, returns demand higher fees 😸
@@shubhomar1615 If you want to go deeper, I have not one but two podcasts on this topic kzread.info/dash/bejne/iX-HudSjo9a5cbA.html kzread.info/dash/bejne/k2R1yZh9YMjYgJM.html
@@InvestOrama glad to know.. see you there then
Enjoy
Stellar again George!
⭐️🙏🐜
Did Rishi just mentally (or randomly) price such a complicated option? Its most likely a one-touch option. How did he come up with 4bps? Also why was he so reluctant to show Harper a price? Would such a trade be difficult to square off? I guess its hard to find someone else to take the opposite end of that trade but surely he could square off the risk using the underlying directly right? Appreciate any responses!
All good questions. One hypothesis is that the series is not realistic, he should dive in his models before giving a price. But I prefer to think it's real and find an explanation for that, so there you go: He's reluctant because the option is so out there that the model gives it a probability close to 0, but that means it's going to be hard to hedge. The price from the models is pretty much 0, so he just adds a few bps to make one and that's why he also moves it from 5 to 4 (a 25% discount) without checking the models (I'm trying hard to make it work)
@@InvestOrama Wow yea thats a great explanation and it really makes sense. When Rishi said 'i cant price that without losing money', my guess is that he would find it hard to be delta neutral (square off the position) as its hard to find another party to take the opposing side of such a punty trade, especially of that size (half a bil). I guess hedging that position (although it is so far out of the money, the delta is tiny) would require dabbling in the underlying, resulting in costs. Also, i doubt he has the limits to hold such a huge position in his book.
As a fan of Limitless, I stumbled onto your channel. I have been looking for this kind of information. I'm hooked and I am about to subscribe. Thanks.
Glad you're here. Did you see the other video on limitless (fund management)
Excellent video.
Thanks. What should I cover next?
@@InvestOrama I think sequence of returns or different measures of risk and how that is marketed or used by firms.
@@jacobtrevorbush excellent choice! There's actual an answer on my other channel from Prof. Phalippou but it deserves to be expanded kzread.info/dash/bejne/gGmtw5Nyo8a9fpc.html
Hi, I just wanted to say that I love your work, even though I don't (want to) understand it. Me, I'm a trader on short timeframes, so my Edge lies elsewhere, but I always watch your content. Actually, since I watch almost no videos about investing, per se, especially ratios and the like, I appreciate the few I watch all the more. The value here is the institutional angle, not the retail, since I need to understand how firms think to trade with, or against, them ... much like market makers. Cheers.
Much appreciated - I'm trying to find the right mix of entertainment and information. PE is becoming relevant for many of us
What ratio do you recommend we should look at? what do you recommend?
That's a topic of the next video, the short answer is that PE performance is very complicated to assess TPVI, MOIC, Modified IRR, PME... you can use a combination of those but they've all been criticized and now there's a new one DARC!!! So maybe don't look at past performance too much?
Thank you
Full conversation if you have time kzread.info/dash/bejne/kWl-zaSOla-1fLQ.htmlsi=QgSGCBTyE1kFmwkx
Om shanti 🙏
⭐
Doesn’t his argument against Buffett apply to Simons on the other side of the pendulum? Like it’s easier to achieve 66% when it’s smaller?? Impossible when it’s big easier when it’s small ?
Yes indeed but tha'st also what makes Simons so special. Who else is smart enough to limit the fund size? Here's a follow up video kzread.infoA8rffDegBLI?feature=share
Nancy Pelosi needs to be in the goat conversation 😂
Haha yes but I wanted to wait a bit after Simons passing to announce that 'actually...'
Rip James Harris Simons, you will be missed
Nobody can compare
4:43 its true that you can grow big quickly because the odds of a catastrophic event in a short time are low. But HIGH over a long time. That's why people build quickly then descale their aggressiveness.
💰💪
4:32 its far easier to get huge returns with a small account. Big accounts move the market and it means you will only get a small fraction of what;s possible starting off. Or at least that;s what the financial Establishment tells us. (In fairness that's my own personal view too) I vaguely remember Eddie made about 6m USD over about a week with a 50k or so investment. He then went into a completely different world, basically fund management and finally looked to do a grand mergers and acquisition deal with de Niro's character. Finally he decided he wanted to become US president.
Yeah I don't think the movie is very consistent with the figures, but it was useful for the point I was trying to make
@@InvestOrama Must admit Limitless is one of only a few film DVDs I've ever bought apart from martial arts ones. That and another trading film called Pi (Warchowski brothers of Matrix fame). Limitless really inspired me to say "my brain is gonna help me make money quick" : D Before trading I was really into IQ tests so Limitless sort of "double resonated" with me.
very underrated interesting video
Glad you think so! I guess asset management is not a very exciting topic
SEC not FBI
Actually the FBI went for Steve Cohen (and the SEC as well I think)
fuck bitcoin!
Damn. Thanks for the breakdown.
Glad you liked you'll find a few more on this channel
Not to mention the bid ask spread makes it pretty hard to get exact prices even if the price you pay for the put equated the price you sold the call for. Maybe go down a strike or 2 to add a net credit for safety? Because who cares how much you limit upside if the goal is to sell ATM @ 40
Yes good idea. Although here the real problem is liquidity, there's another video about that kzread.info/dash/bejne/hoWhqNF8csjAfqg.html
@@InvestOrama Agreed. I’m no expert but if you have THAT big of a liquidity gap you might as well be screwed. I mean what would you do? Fire sell it all for half the price and have a bunch of actual zero cost or net credit collars to compensate for the loss? But also the options liquidity is about the same as the shares so would be hard to get that filled too.
@@legoman6124 you didn't watch the other video? That's where you get the answer from an expert... There's a solution
Tldr Liquidity is fragmented but you can harness it with algorithmic trading
Agreed. I didn't watch the episode but hedging a blackswan event is very different from making a play post black swan event. Assuming they are hedging an unforeseen event, then some of these plays make sense, for example the buying long dated vix, since it'll be cheaper, subject to less decay pressumably, and roll those positions forward until the event pays off. But by definition a black swan event is one you cannot foresee. So these plays will have a huge premiums if they are making trade post event, in which case none of these plays will make too much sense as much of the event must have been priced in. Huge risk and costs. It's not like she has the ability to tell when the event will happen😂
You are right, but here let's assume that they reacted quickly and it's just as the event is about to happen or right after. As for the VIX, like I said in the video, I don't think it can help. I've got a video about it here kzread.info/dash/bejne/nISexKqhdKradbg.html
@@InvestOrama Got it. Long term Vix future is almost always trading in backwardation. Thanks!
@@FarEastAlpaca yeah it's a tricky beast!
this is seriously a brilliant channel. and the editing is superb. well done!
🤜🤛
I think it's a very fair assessment. I also thought his going for the mafia person to ask for money is bit weird given he can quintiple is money so quickly but personally I think its just a sales pitch depending on his perception of the mafia guy's intelligence. When the mafia guy says he must have a "fix" he changed his tactics for the sales pitch and saying he has a insider person. Also I want to point out three more scenes in the film. I am going by chronological order. 1) Just before the business card scene he was explaining to bunch of people about gepolitics and history. That felt like George Soros/Ray Dalio style of macro investing. Finding commonality throughout different historical period. 2) During trading scene he was asked why he was buying a particular stock when the CEO got indicted he replied that a major government deal the company have due to bribes is still on. This seems like very close to "insider trading" probably a reference to Steve Cohen. Also this refers to his threatning of the Robert De Niro character at the end of the movie. He clearly loves informational asymmetry. 3) Also he was helping the Robert De Niro chaacter with Merger deal which seems to me another such a different style of investing. More like lawyer thing rather than investor. I guess the film tried to potray that not only he is charismatic person but he is adept with so many different style of investing and can process and aquire knowledge in unprecedented level. Honestly speaking rather than one throwaway line of "pattern recognition" there wasn't much discussion about quant. But maybe his brain can process so many different kind of data like a supercomputer on alternative data.
Excellent analysis
Why couldn’t you just buy an in the money put, at say 45. The cost to buy a put at 45 is 3.95, which nets you a 41.05, higher than the goal of 40. Buy that, then dump the shares down to 41.05, then exercise all of your puts This is much better than being left selling naked calls
Is that what you see on screen put 45 at 3.95? I don't remember. You may have cracked the code
I put some money in masterworks…1.5 year later 1) all except one art piece prices dropped losing 20% of my investment. 2) the communication has been poor, in fact they don’t actually seemed to know in their email to me all the art pieces I’ve owned through them. 3) they don’t have a forum for investor to discuss or feedback the experience , making it feel more like a scam 4) my money is stuck and I’d better off investing it somewhere else. I hope in 5 years time they prove me wrong
Thank you for this video.
🤽♀️
Terrible list wow
What's yours?
Have I got it wrong?
From data analyst background can I end up to senior roles in hedge fund ? Thanks ❤....I didn't know this Netflix show existed. Thank you
It's hard to get into a hedge fund, but the data roles are increasing in areas like alternative data sourcing and processing for example
GFY
Y?
Is this movie any good?
It's ok not great. Here's my review kzread.info/dash/bejne/nKuLk9miiKfcmqg.html
If he were doing it as part of a long term hedge against Fiat?
Here he doesn't hold any crypto so it can't be a hedge. Also how do you hedge AGAINST fiat?
@@InvestOrama They never explicitly mention that he doesn't hold crypto and wherever they do bring it up, he seems to be active in the space (especially after this point/scene). Aside from when he's trying to take out an enemy, he's also someone who seems to constantly learn from his shortcomings, holding crypto would be a logical asset to hold should he need to flee as seen, I think, twice in the series. The more probable deduction would be that he holds it. As portion of holding a long term portfolio, a hedge for fiat that's also a form of currency (yet also more efficient in storing value) would be crypto.
@@Nkunzi808 Good point! The series don't make it obvious but that may be the case. There's also crypto in series 7 i think
Isn't what harper did illegal? All calls on the trade floor are recorded as well..
Illegal? Not sure? Because she's helping the client instead of the bank, that's not a problem in common law. Non-compliant 1000% sure
@@InvestOrama great way to ruin all your political capital in the work place
absolutely@@anoriginalnick I can only think of one reason to do it: if you're about to go to work FOR the client
@@InvestOrama haha true. The dream is to get poached awayyy
@@anoriginalnick Not happening for Harper in S2... but there's S3 coming, so maybe?
Good format, I like the consulting point of view. Informative, thanks.
🤩
Interesting analysis, thank you.
Much appreciated
Why that annoying background music
Because I messed it up? When I edit it doesn't sound so loud, sorry
🎺
heyy ... can u explain the scene on the trading of orange juice futures in the movie "trading places" kzread.info/dash/bejne/hICttbqNeaW5Y8Y.html