Will DOLLAR, GOLD & BONDS End The Bull Run In EQUITIES ? (Intermarket Analysis)
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Only few genuine teachers of market available here on KZread. And I am proud that I find you way early in my Investment and Trading journey. I follow and Trust very few on Market analysis and commentary and you are one of them. I really don't mind that you have reduced the number of videos as you have taught all of us enough to make our own decisions very wisely. Thank you from bottom of my heart
@TradeWithTrend
Ай бұрын
So nice of you Jayshit. Thanks
@learner44
Ай бұрын
Other than raunak sirs channel whose KZread channel you have found useful. Thanks!
@JayshitLadani
Ай бұрын
There's Basant maheshwari for fundamental side of the market and business. He usually updates on daily market commentary and life lessons.
Thanks for knowledge sharing consistently 👍
Wonderful observation sir. Thanks will read intermarket analysis, ❤❤
Great analysis but I do have own doubts- we have seen risk on assets consolidation before Jan 2020 before the brutal crash. Elliott wave final wave 5 targets are achieved and we are not very far from 4 year down cycles. All of this is telling me that we might see a brutal short term correction however the long term trend may remain intact.
KZread not giving notification these days, of the only channel that I want from it. Can't thank u enough for the kind of guidance and Learning that u put out continously time after time for everyone to learn freely. Huge respect 🙌
@TradeWithTrend
Ай бұрын
Thanks so much.
No body knows what will happen, but the analysis makes so much sense. (As always)
@TradeWithTrend
Ай бұрын
Thanks Sumit
Contrarian view , appreciated !
Fantastic video ST, thanks a lot. I have transitioned into an independent trader but missing your regular market insights in the positional channel membership. Learned a lot when I was there! Market has shown a promising reversal today. Weekends are always good to brush up the concepts and now added John Murphy’s book in my todo list as well.
@TradeWithTrend
Ай бұрын
Thanks so much Amitanshu Its a brilliant book. Do read it.
Thanks. You again motivated to read that Murphy book. Only error I see in ur analysis is at 6:16. Stocks can remain under Distribution for a few months
@TradeWithTrend
Ай бұрын
That's not an error Dotbasing. What you've expressed is your opinion. What I've expressed is mine. In Market, there is no right or wrong. There are only probabilities and how one can position.
Thanks a lot for this video btw.. The timing of it couldn't have been more correct.. i had these exact same doubts running in my mind. Much appreciated.
@TradeWithTrend
Ай бұрын
Thanks so much
Sir could you confirm if my understanding of the relationship between gold and DXY is correct? If the DXY continues to rise, and the fear of war or conflict diminishes, then eventually gold should trend lower. This is because gold and the dollar typically have an inverse relationship. The funds exiting gold would not necessarily flow into equities, but rather into money markets.
@TradeWithTrend
Ай бұрын
Broadly Yes. In this cycle, even if DXY falls a lot, Gold will move up over a period of time. This is because apart from War, there are many global macro factors that will keep Gold afloat.
Your stochastic swing strategy still gives phenomenal results. Thank you!
Content is Gold ❤
NSE par trade ho rhe sab symbols ka agar ATH ya ATL dhoondne ho toh kahan milega? 52 week high low ki value toh milti hai with dates but ath ATL ka data nahin mil rha
Thanks for sharing your insight
@TradeWithTrend
Ай бұрын
Glad it was helpful!
Thank you sir for the video update🙏🙏
@TradeWithTrend
Ай бұрын
Most Welcome Divyanshu
Thanks for your guidance. Really appreciate it!!! Can you show how to draw a stage Breakout in the next Q&A. I get confused on how many minor pivot points to be taken out and the time frame to be used for the same. I think Positional will need daily time frame stage breakout and swing will need 1 hour time frame stage break out before initiation of the trade. Can you please explain the same or clarify if my understanding is correct.
@TradeWithTrend
Ай бұрын
Will do so Riddhi
Spectacular video as usual. Thanks a lot
@TradeWithTrend
Ай бұрын
Thanks again!
Last week I asked a question on how confusing these intermarket relationships are developing at present! This week you have come up with the right video to give me the confidence in my understanding. Its coin toss at this point But atleast I am on the right track with my learnings Thanks teacher 🙏🏻
@TradeWithTrend
Ай бұрын
Happy to help Dr. Ravi. Thanks
Please correct my understanding.Yeilds raising means bond prices are falling right. This means selloff in bonds and money might be moving out from bonds because of fed commentory. This money might be coming temporarily to safe assets until a clear picture is established from fed. Once it is established (cuts), money might be moving to equity
@TradeWithTrend
Ай бұрын
Hi Pavan Rising yields means Bonds are offering more returns. It means existing Bond holders are owned more payments. If perceived risk increases in the system, Investors pull money out of Equities and park it in Bonds as Interest offered can rise and is at least stable.
@adityaparihar3170
Ай бұрын
If bond yields increase, US has to pay more interest on the treasuries which foreign institutional buyers hold. Since the US debt is already at historical levels, from where will they fund this incremental interest ? By printing more dollars? This will further worsen the situation. In that case why will foreign institutional buyers aka central banks keep holding on to the bonds ( which is getting riskier by day). US treasuries would likely be dumped in favour of gold which is the only tier 1 asset for central banks apart from USD as of now.
@anandradhakrishnan1302
Ай бұрын
@@adityaparihar3170exactly. They are printing more dollars and keeping up the show. Sooner or later the dollar will collapse. National currencies can then be pegged only against gold, not even silver. The country with largest gold reserves will be the next superpower. Exactly the reason why China is stockpiling gold like crazy. Gold will run up to 13000 year end and ten years we may be seeing even 30000-50000
Sir thank you very much👍 🙏
I remember you suggesting gold long term structure and bought into gold etf back then thanks . Just one question analyst are saying silver will be more bullish than gold in the coming years due industrial applications as well is it true .
@TradeWithTrend
Ай бұрын
Gold is Gold. Returns plus stability.
@arshad1504
Ай бұрын
@@TradeWithTrend THANK YOU SIR
@angelparikh4247
Ай бұрын
Not everyone can afford Gold when it's price rises too much but still more people, some with less money also, want to join price rise, they choose silver over gold. It is like penny stocks and large caps. Penny stocks move fast when bull market, large caps rise but less than penny stocks.
Great work as always. Thanks much for your contribution!
@TradeWithTrend
Ай бұрын
Thanks again!
@jishnuprasad9217
Ай бұрын
Since you encourage sharing personal stocks, here my current portfolio (all med to long term) Bepl, federal Bank, fresh trop, gppl, Karnataka Bank, nalco, saint gobain, sarla poly, sotl, tgvsl. Any suggestions will be much appreciated!
Thank you ST❤
@TradeWithTrend
Ай бұрын
Thanks Cibi
Hi ST I have one doubt regarding volume. Some daily green candle with little weak on upar side and high volume, when analysing in small TF sometime 5 or 15 minutes it's shows red candle with high volume on downside. Does it misguide on daily TF or over analysis. How to interpret it?? Opposite example of above. Laurus lab in last 52 week weekly TF shows significant high volume on red candle while on daily TF it almost inverse.
@TradeWithTrend
Ай бұрын
Just stick to higher TF Ashish. Study volume on one TF. Daily or Weekly.
Thank you for this lovely episode explaining the macro economical view and the book recommendations 🤗
@TradeWithTrend
Ай бұрын
Thanks Zekk
Pure Gold, Raunak sir, I been with you since long and learnt a lot from a wonderful teacher. Each and every word shared here by you is jus like a precious GEM and only experienced can teach us. God bless you always.
@TradeWithTrend
Ай бұрын
Many many thanks Ravi
Thank you sir 🙏🏻
@TradeWithTrend
Ай бұрын
Most welcome Rahul
Knowledgeable vedio sir
Hat's off to your consistency and dedication 🎉. Very nice explanation sir..🙏👍👏
Thanks a lot Sir for the market update
@TradeWithTrend
Ай бұрын
Most Welcome Saurabh
Hi Sir, Greetings! Excellent analysis as always. I will suggest everyone to go through - Intermarket Analysis and Sector Rotation chapter by School of stocks (Fyers) for more understanding of the subject. Based on my research, I have found the following to hold true: Strong inverse correlation between DXY and EEM Strong direct correlation between OIL and EEM (except from Feb 2021 to May 2022 when Oil was increasing with DXY) Mild direct correlation between Gold and EEM Mild direct correlation between BTC and EEM/SPX Lite direct correlation between DXY and 10Y US Bond Yield Strong direct correlation between 10Y US 10YGerman Bond Yield We are in a precarious situation at the moment and my best guess is that DXY and bond yields can rise for some time now while all other asset classes take a breather. How DXY behaves between 107 and 108 is what will determine the further course of action. Thanks for bringing this topic in the discussion. Warm Regards, Mohit G.
Amazing analysis
@TradeWithTrend
Ай бұрын
Thanks so much
Sir if you see the market, commodities, currency, crude, etc everything is at an all time high and nothing is correlated at this point of time, so should we wait for a fall or else we should make some new position ? Is it a potential crash indication ?
@TradeWithTrend
Ай бұрын
Mark out pivots and trail.
Thank u Raunak for your guidance &🎉 analysis.
@TradeWithTrend
Ай бұрын
Always welcome Anita
As always.... Fabulous video
@TradeWithTrend
Ай бұрын
Thanks again!
Great quality video. Thank you sir❤
@TradeWithTrend
Ай бұрын
Most welcome
Excellent analysis as usual 🙏
@TradeWithTrend
Ай бұрын
Thanks so much
Sir please teach us how to calculate market breadth
amazing analysis. Thank you for such a wonderful video in simple to understand language. Nobody does that every one is giving nifty and bnf analysis for fno.
@TradeWithTrend
Ай бұрын
Most Welcome Santanu
Really useful video Boss👏👏👏
@TradeWithTrend
Ай бұрын
Thanks so much
Great
Hi Raunak Sir .. Thanks for the informative video . How durable is the structure for those stocks whihc have moved in last 10-15 days . Surprisingly DMART , INFOEDGE .. are examples ! How durable is the movement of those stocks which were the ones which have moved last ? Any views & also betweeen Large , mid and small caps ?
@TradeWithTrend
Ай бұрын
Ones that have broken out late but are out performing currently are setting up for medium term.
@hyperretail
Ай бұрын
@@TradeWithTrendthanks for confirming. Appreciate your kind guidance as always
Hello sir! I was riding the trend in the GOLD with 20% of Portfolio allocation, and Silver with 3% allocation... But the Last hour of late night selling in Both GOLD, and Silver is worrying me... GOLD is down 4% from Days high (all time high also)... So what should I do sir? Book partial profit... update! last Friday night both US markets nasdaq and GOLD/silver falling simultaneously why this is happening? When this inverse correlation back again?
@TradeWithTrend
Ай бұрын
If yours is a long term position, then you shouldn't be In a hurry to do anything. Too much of short term optimism is there in Gold. Never this easy.
Thank you Raunak, wonderful analysis, very crisp and clear, thank you for taking time and explaining in details, this also builds confidence with the existing position and good to know me in right track
@TradeWithTrend
Ай бұрын
Thanks Chethan Better to mark out trailing levels on Stocks
@chethanvishal2818
Ай бұрын
@@TradeWithTrend Yes, i have done, this fy i have made open risk sheet in excel so every week end i put SL or TSL and see what would be my risk if everythings hits on a bad day, based on that i plan, which is helping me a lot mentally, so that i am prepared what would be my gain or loss in advance so i am not surprised or sad when in case that happens. as of now my open risk is postive 1% if tomorrow all SLs and TSLs hits
@chethanvishal2818
Ай бұрын
@@TradeWithTrend thank you Raunak, Now I have made a open risk sheet for all my holding whch i update mostly on weekends or may be the evening after marrket close, this is just cheat or trick my mind, since i already aware how much i will lose or make and mentally prepared. it also helps me whether i can take any more new positions or not, At present with all SLs or TSLs hit i am about 1% positive.
Fantastic super analysis really liked it very much , so simple to understand. As always u make look life so very simple.
@TradeWithTrend
Ай бұрын
Thanks a ton Nirav
This is such a Brillant video for those who understand that intermarket analysis is peppered with probabilistic outcome that triggers at the levels that Raunak sir discussed - There are no certainties only possibilities.
@TradeWithTrend
Ай бұрын
Thanks Tarun
Awesome analysis teacher. Thanks for sharing. Have a great weekend. :)
@TradeWithTrend
Ай бұрын
Thanks Jack
I Am Always Waiting For Your Video
@TradeWithTrend
Ай бұрын
Thanks Avijit
Thankyou for your book recommendations sir, i read almost all the books recommended by you and learnt a lot ,today i get one more. we all are fortunate to have teachers like you in this financial journey......THANKYOU YOU🙏🙏🙏🙏
Never seen such a crystal clear multi asset analysis that a layman like me could understand in 1st go. Thank you Raunak for simplifying it so much.
@TradeWithTrend
Ай бұрын
Glad it was helpful!
Timely video sir❤
@TradeWithTrend
Ай бұрын
Thanks a ton
I was adding to Relinfra slowly from the past few weeks (along with 6 other stocks) in my portfolio and it suddenly hit LC.. and the next day it gaps down... I had to cut it with a 25% loss. This was by far the largest loss I've taken in my portfolio in the past 2 years. If I look back I haven't found a mistake as the structure was good ( compared to Nifty 50)
@TradeWithTrend
Ай бұрын
Where was the stock w.r.t ATH?
@NavinPrasad06
Ай бұрын
I lost in RelInfra as well. But point is it reversed from same point where it turned back previously. I feel it'll turn around again just a patience is needed for this reversal. Although court orders something can't predicted. This was my 12% of portfolio avg at 264.
Great video 👌🏻 do you invest in u.s stocks or just india?
@TradeWithTrend
Ай бұрын
Only some ETFs
Hi, as you said that all the assets classes are fighting for MONEY (and i think real estate is also a very important asset class right now, which is also rising and a lot of money is pumped into it).. and apparently everything seems to be rising as of now.. So where is this MONEY coming from ? Interest rates haven't been cut yet and i dont see it happening in the next 3-4 months also.. So, my question is where is the money coming in from ? Under what situation can all of these rise i.e Equity, Gold, Bonds, BTC and Real estate ( u said it has happened in past well, so why did it happen that that as well and more importantly how did it play out i.e which asset class gave in first.
@TradeWithTrend
Ай бұрын
Read John Murphys book. This is a detailed subject. Difficult to explain in comments.
This man deserves more likes, subscribers and appreciation for his work.
@TradeWithTrend
Ай бұрын
Hardly matters.
Amazing video, these terms always seem to confuse me a lot but i have a better understanding of them now. I had one question, i've had some great swing trades over the past few months, some i've even held and converted into positional trades, but i've realised that even when i identify very good structures for a swing trade, 80% of the time i'm very hesitant to take them because in the back of my mind i always feel like we will have a correction. But now i look back on all the potential structures i identified over the past few months and can't help but feel some FOMO. The positional side of my portfolio doesn't have this issue because i'm very much prepared to take some drawdown. I'm really confused as to what to do. Even right now i have some great structures in my watchlist that i'm very hesitant to initiate trades in. Also PS: Do you have a take on the chemical sector? I've had a bunch of chemical stocks on my watchlist since the past year and they seem to be getting ready for big moves, some have already given solid moves
@TradeWithTrend
Ай бұрын
From the way I see it, you look like a positional trader to me. This is where you would do better and react less. Try and explore this more. Chem sector is shaping up well.
@anshdeo
Ай бұрын
@@TradeWithTrend Thank you, that is surprisingly good advice, appreciate you.
Just how do i get in touch with you? Tried everything.
@TradeWithTrend
Ай бұрын
Post your query here Ravi
XAGUSD did reverse yesterday from it's medium term highs Good to be seen as a level for fresh entry.
@TradeWithTrend
Ай бұрын
Needs to form a proper base. Too many are too bullish in the short term.
Thanks for the updates Sir. Summer is getting intensed day by day. Hope Tiger and your birds are doing good. ❤
@TradeWithTrend
Ай бұрын
Thanks Animesh. All are doing well.
Good analysis sir, as always 🎉👏
@TradeWithTrend
Ай бұрын
Thanks Monnappa
@monnappatm8844
Ай бұрын
@@TradeWithTrend sir, I had sent an email to you, plz check 🙏
Thank you sir for making the video on this hot topic. This was necessary to calm the mind and remove all the nonsense that's going on social media :-)
@TradeWithTrend
Ай бұрын
You are very welcome Soham
Great video While doing weekend scanning, was able to see many stocks in good structures like Zaggle, IFB, Netweb among others. Which are young trends, Q4 earnings outlook is great and pulling back on low volumes. Again if the market breaks nothing will hold. But like Jim Roppel says, good companies don’t stop working during market corrections and the spring keeps coiling inside. thanks to your teachings I am more than happy To sit thru market correction, keep watchlist ready and buy stocks when they break out
@TradeWithTrend
Ай бұрын
Excellent !! Very well summarised.
Respected Raunak sir, Last five minutes where you have explained about Index trading has helped me a lot Raunak sir. Your Analysis was perfect I was able to cut down 99% of my positions in Nifty 50 and book profits. Your words are GOLDEN Raunak sir in one of the older videos you have said that we should protect the capital so that when we get better opputunities we can buy them again. Raunak sir you are a great Guru for all of us. Your videos are extremely important to us. Jai jagannath
@TradeWithTrend
Ай бұрын
Thanks so much
sirji great🙏🙏🙏
@TradeWithTrend
Ай бұрын
Thanks Ram
Agree that Asset classes has negative correlation, When all are positive when on an uptrend, Won't it do the same thing when a trend reversal happens. But we cannot rule out the money flow concept, It cannot be kept idle. It should go to some asset pocket. I totally agree that sharp correction towards 50DMA will only bring bearish reversal, but we are not seeing that, morefully stocks are consolidating at the higher range. Thats the symptoms for resuming uptrend on breakout. Lets wait and watch, As for as India is concerned Post election will have an impact. So far market defies the concept of retracement. Elliots theory not comes into play at all.
@TradeWithTrend
Ай бұрын
I hope you didn't conclude that I'm bearish on equities.
Sir Is distribution happening? Operator keep price high Selling to retailers and then market fall
@TradeWithTrend
Ай бұрын
Operator ?
🙏
@TradeWithTrend
Ай бұрын
Thanks so much
Please use white background...
Just a request, please don't use Bonds and Bond Yields loosely. They have inverse correlation with each other.
@TradeWithTrend
Ай бұрын
I don't spoon feed. This much people should know. Isn't it ?
No video on Saturday? Hope everything is okay sir?
@TradeWithTrend
Ай бұрын
Will be out in couple of hours
Fabulous analysis in simple word Thanks ST 🎉
@TradeWithTrend
Ай бұрын
Thanks so much Prathamesh
Did you booked any profits from positions
@TradeWithTrend
Ай бұрын
Hi Vasu, None of my stocks have hit trailing levels. I exit only when pivot is violated or when trend ends.
Still to this day I don't understand why people are investing on bitcoin is there a probability it can be a possible currency accepted by major country what is your take on this, why are big people investigating in bitcoin.
@TradeWithTrend
Ай бұрын
It's a speculative asset that speculators love. Will be used for pump and dump always. It's similar to Options for retailers.
@rjun212
Ай бұрын
Overall, the trust in the US dollar is eroding. This is because of the massive debt hanging above the U.S and the sanctions US placed on Russia. Historically, gold was the best hedge for these situations but it's a physical asset. BTC being a digital asset provides an easier hedge. Also the crypto ecosystem is developing really well which means that the btc and other cryptos can be used for real world applications. I am not a crypto enthusiast but reading about the sector and seeing the developments is improving my trust in this sector.
@shobhavs613
Ай бұрын
But sir stil why are the banks and big fund houses are investing
@MarvinPastor-tb9dj
Ай бұрын
I think we have to adapt the changes in terms of currency
Med plus health services, I M+capitals, ISMT LTD , DC Info tech & Communication datamatics global Trident Tech labs Bharat Wire Ropes Asian Granito India Mahalaxmi Rubtech
You don't give the quick money talk in your video, that's why you do not get huge views or likes. My thought is premium products always have a limited customer base
@TradeWithTrend
Ай бұрын
Thanks. I'm least bothered about views or likes