Why I Bought Inflation Linked Bonds

The UK economy is in a state of low growth and high inflation, in other words stagflation. This is why I decided to buy an inflation linked bond. So in this video, I’ll share my experience of how and why I did that and what I hope the reward will be.
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Timestamps
00:00 Introduction
00:31 Stagflation
03:42 Stagflation Investing
04:18 UK Inflation Linked Gilts “Linkers”
10:09 My Return Guess
12:04 Buying A Linker Isn't Easy!
Where Else You Can Find Me
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DISCLAIMER
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Пікірлер: 140

  • @festerarl6653
    @festerarl6653 Жыл бұрын

    In my humble opinion this is one of your best ever video explainers. It's short, sharp and practical giving the viewer lots of useful information. I watched this twice to make sure I captured all of the points. Great work Ramin.

  • @Pensioncraft

    @Pensioncraft

    Жыл бұрын

    Thanks @Festerarl

  • @kevinu.k.7042
    @kevinu.k.7042 Жыл бұрын

    As always easy to understand and most educational. Great graphics and production too. Thank you.

  • @Pensioncraft

    @Pensioncraft

    Жыл бұрын

    Thank you @Kevin U.K.

  • @keithhalliday4700
    @keithhalliday4700 Жыл бұрын

    Thank you Ramin. As always, an excellent well research video. I learned a great deal from it.

  • @Pensioncraft

    @Pensioncraft

    Жыл бұрын

    Thank you @Keith Halliday

  • @mihail4391
    @mihail4391 Жыл бұрын

    The Lade got shocked when heard she’s being recorded, but she’s coped well I think. Thanks Romin

  • @shellyperera2010
    @shellyperera2010 Жыл бұрын

    Excellent video. Thank you. I had no idea what these were and now I do! 😊

  • @Pensioncraft

    @Pensioncraft

    Жыл бұрын

    Glad you liekd it @Shelly perera

  • @tonyrobbinis
    @tonyrobbinis Жыл бұрын

    Always giving relief information. Thanks for this amazing video

  • @Pensioncraft

    @Pensioncraft

    Жыл бұрын

    You're Welcome @Tony Robbins

  • @amirsharifi1083
    @amirsharifi1083 Жыл бұрын

    Thanks for your informative video .

  • @Pensioncraft

    @Pensioncraft

    Жыл бұрын

    You're wlcome @Amir Sharifi

  • @roberthuntley1090
    @roberthuntley1090 Жыл бұрын

    I've got something similar, aka "Granny Bonds", but they changed from RPI to CPI the last time I rolled them over for an extra 5 year period. Unfortunately, they are not sold anymore.

  • @ThorRavnsborg
    @ThorRavnsborg Жыл бұрын

    I personally think inflation is likely to come down quite rapidly later this year or during 2024. When trying to predict inflation I prefer to strictly look at the money supply growth rate (in UK that would be the M4 growth rate data published by Bank of England ) which I believe tends to lead inflation with a lag of 12-24 months. I disregard everything else as noise. Among others I follow Steve Hanke (a professor of applied economics at the Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore) which takes the same approach so I will point to him for more research on this topic. According to the data I have been able to source the UK M4 growth rate rose dramatically in 2020 and it peaked between June 2020 and February 2021 where readings hovered at elevated levels between 12.1% and 13.6% YoY for those 8 months. However, it has been on a downward slope since. It has been consistently back below 5.5% YoY since March 2022 and the latest Feb 2023 figure was a reading of a meagre 0.9% (which is the lowest since early 2019). My understanding is that the money supply growth rate needs to be somewhere around 5.5% in order to maintain a long term 2% inflation target (quoting Mr. Hanke from memory). We have been below that figure for the past year and with figures dropping increasingly lower I believe we will see significantly lower inflation figures within the next 12 months. We might even overshoot and get deflation if this trend continues in the months ahead. That (admittedly bold) prediction might give me some appetite for bonds but not the inflation linked ones at the moment. I think we are already too late for that party this time around (I'm not ruling out that inflation could spike up again at a later point in time of course). Btw. I also think we are headed into a more severe recession which is going to cool the hot labour market despite demographics but of course that is just my best guess which I will willingly highlight is less educated than yours🙂

  • @ianjackson8371

    @ianjackson8371

    Жыл бұрын

    Excellent analysis. I would also throw in declining bank deposits and a steeply inverted US yield curve in the mixer. Then again I think the central banks will restart QE when the brown stuff hits.

  • @goober-ll1wx

    @goober-ll1wx

    Жыл бұрын

    The idea to me is to buy linkers as inflation starts to pop up, not after a record pace hiking cycle...

  • @tycoonlion8592
    @tycoonlion85923 ай бұрын

    Great Video, Thanks

  • @Pensioncraft

    @Pensioncraft

    3 ай бұрын

    Glad you liked it @tycoonlion8592

  • @drdrm46tube
    @drdrm46tube Жыл бұрын

    Best to buy outside an ISA as tax saving in ISA is negligible even for higher rate tax payers.. Use the ISA wrapper for something else. TR26, T29 and even TR31 are also worth considering for holding to redemption. The link to RPI continues until at least 2030 or thereabouts after which I think the link is changed to CPI-H

  • @Eddie.Mootsen
    @Eddie.Mootsen Жыл бұрын

    Guessed linker return 7.6% but you'd get 4.2% yield on a 1yr guilt so excess return is (probably) going to be iro 3.4% - for me questionable if that excess return outweighs the risk - linkers will tank if there is a rapid disinflation in Uk which is conceivable as consumer spending power dries up completely. You pays your money you takes your chances ;-)

  • @dorian1712
    @dorian1712 Жыл бұрын

    Nice explanation, this video got me hooked so I did some research myself on this gilt. Very quick question. The price it was reportedly bought for is £148.42. But searching this gilt on London Stock Exchange returns a current price of £99.61, and never shows a price that high. I am clearly missing something, has anyone got any clue where you can see the reported price?

  • @festerarl6653
    @festerarl66539 ай бұрын

    3rd time I've visited this video to make sure I'm doing things right!

  • @Tim_gaylor
    @Tim_gaylor Жыл бұрын

    Useful to know that I can invest in GILTS and use this as a vehicle to mitigate tax. Thanks for the video

  • @Pensioncraft

    @Pensioncraft

    Жыл бұрын

    You're welcome @Minutes of Money

  • @David-ue4hh
    @David-ue4hh Жыл бұрын

    Interested to learn the tax treatment of govt stock, if held outside a tax-wrapper. Excellent content, as always!

  • @robmcdonald9477

    @robmcdonald9477

    Жыл бұрын

    As I understand it coupon is subject to income tax outside of an ISA but the capital gain is tax free for uk gilts.

  • @lozaboza6935
    @lozaboza6935 Жыл бұрын

    Well played Ramin, looks like you are making money after yesterday's announcement!

  • @alexm7310
    @alexm7310 Жыл бұрын

    Brilliant... love her response to being famous!

  • @Pensioncraft

    @Pensioncraft

    Жыл бұрын

    Thanks @Alex M

  • @robmcdonald9477
    @robmcdonald9477 Жыл бұрын

    Excellent video, but no mention of the risks with linkers in that if the inflation expectations change suddenly (such as big uplift in BoE % rate or aggressive QT) you can lose money on this gilt.

  • @mutton_man
    @mutton_man Жыл бұрын

    Would a short dated inflation linked gilt fund provide similar returns?

  • @giovannitardini5248
    @giovannitardini5248 Жыл бұрын

    In your return calculation you assume that the linker has redemption date in one and half year, but TR24 redemption date is March 2024

  • @r101e6
    @r101e6 Жыл бұрын

    As someone else has pointed out, the price to buy this bond on H-L is circa £101. Two questions: 1. Why is the actual purchase price not shown? 2. Why can you not buy these online? Great video as always

  • @markukblackmore

    @markukblackmore

    Жыл бұрын

    I’ll have a guess at the second question. And it is just a guess, so I apologise if this isn’t helpful … typically a purchase requires an in person call when there isn’t an application programming interface to the upstream system handling the sale. It can also be when the success rate of the process is low enough that it is less hassle for a person to mediate the process. Also there might be some regulatory reason such as the need to check something about the purchaser using a number of other systems that are also themselves not fully automated.

  • @brightbluesmurf
    @brightbluesmurf Жыл бұрын

    I've been looking at TR28 treasury could see a capital gain in future as rates comeback down?

  • @jmitterii2
    @jmitterii2 Жыл бұрын

    Here in the USA, I bought I-Series Savings Bonds start of 2022 January. Had them over a year now. Started at 7.2% then May 2022 9.68% then November 6.8%, new rate comes out start of May. So far so good on those... limit per year is $10K. And you must be US citizen or LLC of the USA. Anyway, I haven't bought any new ones this year in 2023 fresh limit for another $10K... instead just decided to ladder brokered CD's some are making 4.75% to 5.15%. And one of my broker is recently paying 4.1% sweep which is really nice. My CS puts I've sold and eventually close for profits... the cash raised selling put writes adds to that interest. Problem with US Inflation Series savings bonds is that the fixed rate past several years has been 0%. So the fixed rate is 0% with inflation portion variable. And you lock in that fixed 0% portion. So eventually when the rate is too low, I'm probably going to redeem them and do something else with the money.

  • @jmitterii2

    @jmitterii2

    Жыл бұрын

    All those bonds you spoke about sound confusing as all get out. USA the Inflation Series Savings bonds is easy.... you buy them directly from the US Treasury website. Lock up is 1 year, after which you can redeem them. They're not trade-able. Accrue interest every quarter and compound interest semi-annually. If you redeem before 5 years of purchase calendar, you give up the last 3 months of interest accrued as a penalty. After 5 years, you get full interest, no give up of last 3 months of interest accrued. And they quit paying out after 30 years. Also they're state income tax exempt. Only taxable Federal income tax. Which is nice for me, as my state Idaho has a little over 6.3% income tax. And you can redeem them piecemeal. You can buy an actual printed savings bonds, but the calendar year limit becomes much lower. I think printed savings bonds becomes $5K instead of $10K for electronic purchased. And it's sort of pointless to have the paper printed I-Series Bond because they're not transferable. You can sell them. They're attached to the original buyer of the bond, and redeemed upon demand (after a year lock up from purchase date) for principle and interest owed... minus the last quarter interest if redeemed before 5 years of purchase date. And you can buy thru the year toward the $10K limit... so whatever amount $25 increments or higher every week, month, or random purchases until calendar year reach of $10K. Redeeming comes from the website as if you're logging on to any broker website, in this case treasury direct website... and select the bonds you bought and how much of it you'd like to redeem. Redemptions can be piecemeal too... only need to pull out $500 or $2K or whatever... then that's okay. Even if you bought in different times and allotments. Interest will calculate based on first in first out basis. And it's similar in that you don't know what rate you'll get every May and November as it's based on CPI data. The fixed portion pays the going interest rate at the time, and stays fixed for the life of the bond 30 years. Fixed portion never changes... so some lucky folks who bought some of these things and held them back in 1990's or early 2000's had a big combined rate... about 1% to 2% fixed and when it was 9.68% inflation rate portion were making 10% to 11% returns for 6 months. The ones I bought in 2022 fixed rate was 0%. So they suck for long term holdings if and when inflation goes down.

  • @amrelhady3634
    @amrelhady3634 Жыл бұрын

    Thank you great video. Just curious, did you mainly buy in your ISA to avoid tax on coupons ? The bulk of the gain is in capital, wouldn't it have been better to utilise the ISA investment in something else with high return?

  • @Applepie409

    @Applepie409

    Жыл бұрын

    Takin stated there was no capital gains to pay on guilts and he also put it in an isa. I hope I did not misunderstand.

  • @amrelhady3634

    @amrelhady3634

    Жыл бұрын

    @@Applepie409 yes that's correct, the main benefit ISA gives here is no tax on coupons, that's why I was curious as the coupon returns in this case are negligible.

  • @Harry-oc2lt
    @Harry-oc2lt Жыл бұрын

    Thanks Ramin. Would buying U.K. Inflation-Linked Gilt Index Fund be a way to try to follow along with this theory?

  • @festerarl6653

    @festerarl6653

    Жыл бұрын

    As a lay person, for me the problem with an index linked bond 'fund' is that it typically holds loads of different bonds with different payouts and importantly durations. You really have to delve deeper into the actual holdings to decide if it's worth it. I dont have the skill to do that with confidence, but with a single bond it's far more transparent. That's my thinking anyway!

  • @ukecando
    @ukecando Жыл бұрын

    What are people's views on the pros/cons of buying an index tracker e.g. iShares Index Linked Gilt Index, instead of an individual bond? thanks

  • @stevo728822

    @stevo728822

    Жыл бұрын

    They plummeted in value and offered no protection against inflation.

  • @desiguy995
    @desiguy995 Жыл бұрын

    in US series i inflation bonds are yielding 8%. do we have any such bonds in UK?

  • @nickwoolley733
    @nickwoolley733 Жыл бұрын

    What about using the iShares GBP Index-Linked Gilts UCITS ETF?

  • @SlobberySlob

    @SlobberySlob

    Жыл бұрын

    no control over duration. If long bonds sell off then it will drop.

  • @stevo728822

    @stevo728822

    Жыл бұрын

    @@SlobberySlob But why would long bonds sell off? Yet to hear a decent reason.

  • @Dosh__
    @Dosh__ Жыл бұрын

    What about Vanguard U.K. Inflation-Linked Gilt Index Fund instead?

  • @andrewsymonds592
    @andrewsymonds592 Жыл бұрын

    Great video as usual Ramin .... I bought some INXG 6 months ago thinking to gain from the inflation proofing and checked they had quite a lot of gilts maturing in 23/24 to tap into the rise. Also considering how rate hiking might slow down. However this is down about 5% from purchase. Which is fine given they are down about 30% on a year, maybe I was a wee bit early. If an individual linker is attractive now why are the ETF's not reflecting it?

  • @alexandralyansberg9127

    @alexandralyansberg9127

    Жыл бұрын

    I would be interested to know this too. Thank you

  • @magnets1000

    @magnets1000

    Жыл бұрын

    I've been researching and found the ishares UK real estate ETF (UKRE) which is 70% REIT/30% index linked gilts and they have shorter duration than the gilts in INXG. I assume prices are falling because people are not expecting inflation to stay high or last for very long. If inflation falls any time soon down to 2% or lower, then these bonds will not be very attractive

  • @user-vx7zu8iw1e
    @user-vx7zu8iw1e Жыл бұрын

    Hi! I got 50% of my pension fund in a longdated index linked fund. I lost 38% 😢. I can withdraw my pension starting next March. I suppose it is too late to sell? What do you think I should do? Is there any hope for the fund to regain value? No idea. Please help😅

  • @andyyu5957
    @andyyu5957 Жыл бұрын

    I moved about half of my pension into index linked funds in 2019. It seems that I have made the right call on inflation, but these funds dropped by more than 25% so I am still worse off than if they were left in stocks and shares tracker funds. I wonder what I am doing wrong.

  • @chrish2389

    @chrish2389

    Жыл бұрын

    Sounds like you didn’t take on to account the duration of the bond fund you bought. Short duration linkers have a payout that is more highly correlated to the rate of inflation, whereas for long duration linkers only the real yield matters really, as the uplift due to high current inflation isn’t enough to compensate you for the loss due to rising real yields. Most bond funds are very long duration unfortunately.

  • @user-fo2un9td9z
    @user-fo2un9td9z Жыл бұрын

    Great video! Question: You say "I bought the bond when it had an uplift of about 50%" at 11:30. Is that uplift something that is published for a given bond on a given day or does it need to be calculated?

  • @Pensioncraft

    @Pensioncraft

    11 ай бұрын

    It's based on the RPI index published by the ONS with a 3m lag i.e. you look up RPI 3m before the date of each cash flow. Then the uplift is compared to RPI on the date the bond was issued. You also interpolate for the day in the month so the calculation is a bit fiddly. Thanks, Ramin.

  • @user-fo2un9td9z

    @user-fo2un9td9z

    11 ай бұрын

    @@Pensioncraft ​Thanks! And one can note that inflation has proven to be sticky indeed, with RPI still at 10.7% right now. So this was a good investment... Any reason why one wouldn't buy a longer dated one as well, if one thinks inflation will be stickier for longer (and is prepared to hold it to maturity)?

  • @NedFlanders39
    @NedFlanders39 Жыл бұрын

    Hey Ramin, what are your thoughts on fixing your mortgage for 2 years or going on a tracker during this period?

  • @n.h187

    @n.h187

    Жыл бұрын

    Fix, interest rates won't be coming down anytime soon, they'll probably increase 2 or 3 more times before just keeping steady for 18 months.

  • @george6977

    @george6977

    Жыл бұрын

    Consider, what it when your 2 year fixed rate expires financial institutions are reluctant to lend to you because there is a credit crunch or we are in a deep recession, or house prices have fallen, they think you may lose your job or get divorced? You may be unable to remortgage so have to accept an uncompetitive rate from your existing provider.

  • @Cheekilyabsent
    @Cheekilyabsent Жыл бұрын

    Hi, I love your channel. You make sense and are easy to understand… But you don’t seem to use a lot of Australian data, as in you’ll throw up data against France, the US etc, but Aus doesn’t get a look-in really. If I joined your community, would the information be applicable to me as a principally Australian investor?

  • @Pensioncraft

    @Pensioncraft

    Жыл бұрын

    Hi Laura thanks! We have some Australian members in the community because I think the investment principles we encourage are universal. You can always try it out - there's no obligation to keep your membership beyond a month if you go for the monthly premium option. Thanks, Ramin.

  • @MrPhantomPete
    @MrPhantomPete Жыл бұрын

    Inflation linked bonds are interest rate sensitive instruments. If interest rates rise, then the value of the bond falls despite inflation remaining high. You will need to hold the bond to maturity in order to avoid losing money in such a situation. Speaking from experience buying Australian ILBs via Vanguard two years ago.

  • @paul_k_7351
    @paul_k_7351 Жыл бұрын

    Hi Ramin thanks for this video - presumably the expected rate of inflation is priced into the bond already, and if you are earning a return better than the BOE then that’s because you expect the actual rate will be less than the one priced in? Is that how it works?

  • @robmcdonald9477

    @robmcdonald9477

    Жыл бұрын

    The price of the Bond reflects demand for it. If inflation expectations are 9% the price of the bond as determined by the market will factor that in. If you buy it on that expectation and suddenly the inflation expectation drops unexpectedly you will lose money on the linker. I dipped my toe in an inflation linked ETF back in 2021, it's still under the water.

  • @paul_k_7351

    @paul_k_7351

    Жыл бұрын

    @@robmcdonald9477 Thanks Rob - presumably you mean if the inflation expectation rises unexpectedly you will lose money on the linker in the same way that you will lose money on the capital value of a bond if interest rates go up?

  • @stevo728822
    @stevo728822 Жыл бұрын

    So why does the Hargreaves Lansdown site show the yield for this ( TREASURY 0.125% 22/03/2024 INDEX-LINKED GILT ) as 0.125% and the price is only £101 ?? There's no reference to the RPI added.

  • @jam99

    @jam99

    Жыл бұрын

    Research clean price vs dirty price. Doesn’t really matter since you decide to take the gamble and decide to commit x amount of money. Specify purchase by the amount of money, not the number of bonds.

  • @dorian1712

    @dorian1712

    Жыл бұрын

    @@jam99 Where can you see the dirty price please? Or the price you pay is not displayed anywhere and have to calculate it by yourself?

  • @richardwein8846
    @richardwein8846 Жыл бұрын

    Thanks for this video. It was very informative up to a point. However it didn't address what seems to me to be a very important problem, and one which has so far deterred me from buying linkers. If I'm not mistaken, you're buying the linker at a market price, and not necessarily at the price that would give you the desired returns of RPI + coupon. Did you check that you were buying at a price that would give you the those returns, and if so how did you do that?

  • @richardwein8846

    @richardwein8846

    Жыл бұрын

    Well, I watched again. You mentioned that the current uplift is about 50%, which is about right (I checked). But you didn't say anything about what price you paid. Now that I've checked the current market price, which is about£100, I'm even more confused. If the face value is £100, and it's already had an uplift of 50%, then its redemption value in 2024 should be over £150. So how can it be selling today at about £100? Something doesn't add up. What am I missing?

  • @richardwein8846

    @richardwein8846

    Жыл бұрын

    In case anyone is following my mini-thread (I doubt it)... I eventually found the answer. The market price that's normally quoted is the "clean price", which doesn't include uplift. Currently the clean price and dirty price (with uplift) are 98.72 and 150.41 respectively. These seem to be mid-market prices, as the bid and offer prices are currently being quoted as 97.30 and 99.80. (Seems like rather a large spread!) I hope that helps someone.

  • @richardwein8846

    @richardwein8846

    Жыл бұрын

    Final comment. I just went ahead and bought some of this index linked bond in my Interactive Investor ISA. Thank you, PensionCraft, for suggesting it.

  • @jam99
    @jam99 Жыл бұрын

    Ramin, just when I think I understand linkers, I have another question. You mention TR24. This matures March 2024 according to its info. Why do you talk about redemption about Oct 2024? (Great demo on the phone by the way; I am not sure any other YTer has done this. Fleshing out real examples of bond investing is really useful - just look at how many people in the comments are not even aware of dirty vs clean pricing.)

  • @djpuplex
    @djpuplex Жыл бұрын

    I think that cow has already been linked. I think the stair case down of interest will begin soon. I sold my TIPS a few months ago.

  • @RangerMH1
    @RangerMH1 Жыл бұрын

    How about long Treasury bonds? Is it still a buy?

  • @Pensioncraft

    @Pensioncraft

    Жыл бұрын

    Hi @RangerMH1 I still own mine in my fun portfolio as the reasons why I bought are still intact - I think US nominal growth will surprise on the downside. Thanks, Ramin.

  • @goober-ll1wx
    @goober-ll1wx Жыл бұрын

    Why would you buy inflation protected bonds after the fact? we must be much closer to the end of the hiking cycle now, the the coupon on this will fall away rapidly as inflation drops, you can get 6% on a 5 year gilt, seems like a much better option to me right now.

  • @Stain3610
    @Stain36106 ай бұрын

    Hi Ramin, we're nearly a year since this vid, would you offer an update on how this particular investment is working out, did you achieve expected returns? Thanks

  • @Pensioncraft

    @Pensioncraft

    6 ай бұрын

    Hi @Stain3610 I did a live stream update here kzread.info/dash/bejne/qXeK3KevqtqpcZs.html

  • @mjlivie
    @mjlivie Жыл бұрын

    an example of what you could lose if it goes pear shaped and what can make that happen is absent,

  • @ianjackson8371
    @ianjackson8371 Жыл бұрын

    National Savings no longer issue index linked saving certificates, they just allow existing investors to roll them over at maturity but now at CPI rather than RPI but 10% isn't to be sniffed at.

  • @jam99

    @jam99

    Жыл бұрын

    When was the last time these were available? Was it something like 9yrs ago?

  • @macman6421

    @macman6421

    Жыл бұрын

    @@jam99 The last ones that were sold were in 2011. I still have £240K worth, with a few still at RPI. Until recently they have not performed very well but at least the gains are tax free.

  • @george6977

    @george6977

    Жыл бұрын

    Thanks, I didn't know that.

  • @jam99

    @jam99

    Жыл бұрын

    @@macman6421 Was there an annual purchase limit on them back then? Were you buying for quite a few years? Excellent gains you are making now; has it made up for the years of low RPI? Was average about 4.5% annual from 2011? I remember early on the interest was RPI+x% where x will have made them very reasonable for such a low risk investment. They must have the highest gain to risk ratio of anything right now.

  • @macman6421

    @macman6421

    Жыл бұрын

    @@jam99 There were 3 and 5 year issues. You could put £15K into each issue. I seem to remember that there were normally 2 lots of issue per year making a maximum total of £60K per year. I started buying them in 2007. The original ones were something like RPI + 1.35% but later they were changed to RPI + 0.01% and then CPI + 0.01%. If the inflation rate return is limited to a minimum of 0% so that inflation goes negative their value doesn't go down. We have had very low inflation up to recent times and I don't think the average return since 2011 will be as much as 4.5%, I will have to check that out.

  • @simony2801
    @simony2801 Жыл бұрын

    Supply chain issues and a tight labour market with not enough workers for the jobs. Could it be the land of milk and honey caused by brexit.

  • @stevegeek

    @stevegeek

    Жыл бұрын

    For sure it is, but no one is allowed to say it these days (especially if you’re a politician it seems). What a mess.

  • @rjedwards158
    @rjedwards158 Жыл бұрын

    On HL the price of the bons is £101.31. Where did the payment price of £145 come from? 11.37 on the video

  • @fredwobus

    @fredwobus

    Жыл бұрын

    This was an illustration price. A fictional bond that started out out at £100 would have been £145 at that time he bought. The bind you looked at most likely didn't start at 100, so buy the time you looked its price wasn't uplifted to 145, that why you saw a different price

  • @jam99

    @jam99

    Жыл бұрын

    @@fredwobus Dont think so. Research dirty price vs clean price.

  • @dorian1712

    @dorian1712

    Жыл бұрын

    @@jam99 Where can you see the dirty price please? Or the price you pay is not displayed anywhere and have to calculate it by yourself?

  • @jam99

    @jam99

    Жыл бұрын

    @@dorian1712 Not sure, Dorian, sorry. I have seen it quoted on some websites but can't find those right now.

  • @flashpadxxx
    @flashpadxxx Жыл бұрын

    If i look at inflation linked Bonds ETF from US and europe the value of the ETF sharply dropped from 2021 to now? Why is that? I thought they rise when inflation rises ?

  • @MagicNash89
    @MagicNash89 Жыл бұрын

    Is this for your main portfolio or your fun portfolio?

  • @jam99

    @jam99

    Жыл бұрын

    Fun!

  • @talexe
    @talexe Жыл бұрын

    Why not something like the Vanguard UK Inflation Linked Gilt Index Fund? Or at least - is that something that an everyday investor should consider?

  • @EnglishroG

    @EnglishroG

    Жыл бұрын

    Be careful - I invested in that a few years ago and am now down by an eye-watering 27%.

  • @drdrm46tube

    @drdrm46tube

    Жыл бұрын

    Because you only get guaranteed returns if the index linked gilts are held to redemption - in funds is someone sells units the underlying gilts have to sold at current market price producing a loss if interest rates are rising.

  • @jam99

    @jam99

    Жыл бұрын

    @@drdrm46tube Well, except that there is no guarantee with linkers! :)

  • @dorian1712

    @dorian1712

    Жыл бұрын

    If interest rates go up, the bond prices automatically go down. You can't fully benefit from the full capital return at redemption because the fund keeps buying new bonds that would drop in price due to high interest rates.

  • @ml267
    @ml267 Жыл бұрын

    Vanguard has a UK inflation linked gilt index fund. Why not invest through that? It is classed as a level 6 risk which seems high for a bond?

  • @SlobberySlob

    @SlobberySlob

    Жыл бұрын

    You have no control over the duration.

  • @dorian1712

    @dorian1712

    Жыл бұрын

    If interest rates go up, the bond prices automatically go down. You can't fully benefit from the full capital return at redemption because the fund keeps buying new bonds that would drop in price due to high interest rates.

  • @ElChirimolla

    @ElChirimolla

    Жыл бұрын

    Because of duration risk.

  • @stevo728822

    @stevo728822

    Жыл бұрын

    @@SlobberySlob Why does duration matter? Inflation acts on all assets at the same time.

  • @coderider3022

    @coderider3022

    5 ай бұрын

    Price movements based on the change in inflation in short term, not so much the duration.

  • @dachanist
    @dachanist Жыл бұрын

    Real Estate in an immigration positive area is a better investment than inflation linked bonds.

  • @alexlau9779
    @alexlau9779 Жыл бұрын

    Have I missed this opportunity already? The value of bonds these days seem very close to 100 so there doesn't seem to be much for an uplift opportunity.

  • @georgeholloway3981
    @georgeholloway3981 Жыл бұрын

    I would really like to hear your view as to why you think inflation will remain high! Or more specifically to the current situation, how and why do you think stagflation comes about?

  • @coderider3022
    @coderider30226 ай бұрын

    14:05 worlds most nervous laugh.

  • @littletommyl
    @littletommyl Жыл бұрын

    Excellent content, does look like a bit of a faf, i wonder if a high dividend stock etf, ftse 100, world equity fund would have the same inflation hedge effect? (Possible content idea)

  • @MagicNash89

    @MagicNash89

    Жыл бұрын

    In stagflation stocks will go down, so supposedly their nominal value will go down too. With linkers nominal value is safe, i assume.

  • @jam99

    @jam99

    Жыл бұрын

    @@MagicNash89 Deflation?

  • @MagicNash89

    @MagicNash89

    Жыл бұрын

    @@jam99 Where? If we get deflation it most likely means we are getting a recession - that ftse 100 and those high dividend stocks are still gonna sink.

  • @shamusj
    @shamusj4 ай бұрын

    Hi Ramin, your bond should have matured now (if not soon). Will you provide the result?

  • @Pensioncraft

    @Pensioncraft

    4 ай бұрын

    Hi @shamusj yes that's right it just matured. For members of our community I'm covering it for our weekly Explainer video. This is useful I think because people can see the nitty gritty of linkers and how they work. That's really why I bought it. I don't think I'll do a KZread video but I'll certainly discuss that with Laura as a possible future video. Thanks, Ramin.

  • @shamusj

    @shamusj

    4 ай бұрын

    Awesome, I'll sign up very soon to check it out!@@Pensioncraft

  • @chrisyking
    @chrisyking Жыл бұрын

    Where did you get the code 'TR24' from?

  • @chewbaccassecretlovechild2607

    @chewbaccassecretlovechild2607

    3 ай бұрын

    I will explain what is happening in the world. Well, economic development has been based on the 2 1 theory. If you are familiar with diatamini theory, study ! The general accepted equation of the 3 dimension triage is flawed. I strongly advise that you study economics. Not the ridiculous apistles of the top pompous universities. We are on the verge of a complete collapse. The dollar won't be the accepted monies for much longer. Why would it ! They can freeze the dollar, just like Russia is experiencing. As a society we are very divided and we are heading for serious problems. Cash is trash ! Remember that ❤

  • @AmandaRae757
    @AmandaRae757 Жыл бұрын

    Understanding personal finances and investing will most likely lead to greater financial independence. By being knowledgeable about money and investing, individuals can make informed decisions about how to save, spend, and invest their money. A trader made over $350k in this recession influenced market

  • @M0ns1gn0r
    @M0ns1gn0r Жыл бұрын

    Why do they make it so difficult to buy that bond?

  • @MagicNash89

    @MagicNash89

    Жыл бұрын

    I assume because its a GOVERNMENT bond, anywhere governments suck at modern IT solutions with rare exceptions.

  • @Uneducatedopinion57

    @Uneducatedopinion57

    Жыл бұрын

    It’s cause it requires large amount of capital , may have low liquidity and individual bonds are very risky subject to interest and default risk

  • @SlobberySlob

    @SlobberySlob

    Жыл бұрын

    Because its government. If there is deflation i.e. -2% RPI the bond index will go down so its not risk free, as you pay the dirty price - the inflation to date to the seller of the bond based on the ref index. You will then get whatever the inflation rate is on top at redemption

  • @helixvonsmelix
    @helixvonsmelix Жыл бұрын

    why this over a Sterling Short-Term Money Market Fund - GB00BGB6GZ57 ?

  • @MagicNash89

    @MagicNash89

    Жыл бұрын

    I assume because Ramin expects inflation to stay high and thus get a better return from a linker

  • @kaushmaisuria
    @kaushmaisuria Жыл бұрын

    Lack luster UK growth is IMHO due to Brexit, which none of the other G7 countries are affected by.

  • @Uneducatedopinion57

    @Uneducatedopinion57

    Жыл бұрын

    Great insight 👍🏽

  • @jayfreedom
    @jayfreedom Жыл бұрын

    UK destroyed by Brexit. smh.

  • @andyyu5957

    @andyyu5957

    Жыл бұрын

    This is only part of the reason and a lazy stock response. How about: - Bank of England printing money like no tomorrow during covid - The printed money being p1ssed up the wall (handed to any Tom, Dick and Harry who claim they have a business, paying millions to sit at home on "furlough", only 2 full time staff working in anti fraud) - the self inflicted sanctions on Russia (i.e. instead of buying oil and gas directly from Russia, now paying even more with middlemen from Turkey, etc. and oil companies making an absolute fortune) - all coal power stations closed down thanks to "net zero", all revenue from North Sea gas field p1ssed up the wall over the years, no new nuclear stations being built, so now completely dependent on natural gas but no storage facilities available (meanwhile China building hundreds of coal fired power stations every year and laughing their heads off at woke people blocking roads, etc.) - the drop in GBP brought about by the "mini budget" cobbled together by a bunch of clowns who did their sums on the back of a bus ticket Need I say more?

  • @linux2005

    @linux2005

    Жыл бұрын

    And what do you think are the reasons that practically every other developed country is facing super high inflation? Fear not chicken little the sky will not fall down, Brexit is just one many facets to a perfect storm.. on the plus side the UK has now joined the Asia-Pacific CPTPP the first European country to do so with the trade bloc worth over 15% of global GDP and projected to have some of the largest economic growth over the coming decades, something it would never of been allowed to do being governed under the constraints of the EU

  • @gandreas5936

    @gandreas5936

    11 ай бұрын

    We're doing better than Germany