Winning would be economically expensive. But losing Taiwan and it's silicon industry to China, or to rigors of war, would be economically incomprehensible.

@burtonporter8437

Жыл бұрын

I don’t think losing the industry would be nearly as consequential as the implications that China can do whatever it wants without consequence- ala hitler 2.0

@MrAjmay1

Жыл бұрын

Yep. That's the size of it. It's weighing "horrible" against "unthinkable".

@coreytaylor5386

Жыл бұрын

yeah, wether we like it or not, the fate of the US's future is directly tied to Taiwan staying independent

@Mediiiicc

Жыл бұрын

Samsung and TSMC are building fabs in the US, Intel is expanding too. Losing Taiwan would suck for sure but it wouldn't be as detrimental as you might think (in regards to microchip manufacturing).

@vueport99

Жыл бұрын

@@Mediiiicc the 'freedom of navigation' loss will be a bigger impact long term.

We overestimate enemy capabilities in these scenarios. But it's better to expect the worst just in case things dont play out

@chieftain5571

24 күн бұрын

If they have enough numbers, the US' slight, gee whiz gadget advance won't matter. The only reason why Putin and his collection of third rate, junk, is still around is because he has a shitload of it.

The best strategy to prevent a war is to make it perfectly clear that the enemy could not possibly win...

Yeah...Forcing CCP to reconsider its unification strategy!!! That's the key takeaway, great work Alex

Unsurprisingly there seems to be little discussion of submarines despite their great importance in this theater.

@cheeseninja1115

Жыл бұрын

that seems to be a running trend with these wargames. Everyone talks about the surface and air war, but the underwater domain seems to be absent. Probably has to do with most nations keeping submarine capabilities close to their chest so wargamers cannot properly account for them

@gunningopher

Жыл бұрын

The report itself said that submarines were a key asset to "victory", but suffered significant losses as well. I think this video was focused on the air power aspect, and chose not to cover the sub-surface, space, cyber and land domains.

@JMurph2015

Жыл бұрын

The report itself made more mention of them, but Sandboxx was calling out the slightly more interesting finding since the gist from the report on subs was basically "submarines will continue to do submarine things".

@tsubadaikhan6332

Жыл бұрын

Taiwan's current Submarine Fleet consists of 4 boats, 2 of which practically date back to WW2. The West has refused to sell Taiwan Subs for fear of upsetting China, which now seems Ludacris. Just 6 German built Type 214's with a Crew of 27 men each operated from Taiwan would give China serious headaches at no Cost to the West, and hold China up until Big Guns arrive. The 214's were designed for the shallow Baltic Sea, so they'd be perfect for this role. Ridiculously short-sighted that we can't get these to Taiwan.

@adrien5834

Жыл бұрын

@@tsubadaikhan6332 *ludicrous

The modern Chinese military is largely untested. Even so, a real danger would be underestimating them. We really don't know how capable they are. If a war for Taiwan starts, they could put up a hell of a fight. Or they could turn out like Russia in Ukrane. Either way, I really don't want to find out.

@suberchen3604

Жыл бұрын

You mean, China should create wars all over the world like the US and build up its military? In addition, the United States has not faced a real adversary for decades, its weapons have not been tested to a high degree, and it has been killing small countries. Has the United States ever had any experience when facing a real powerful adversary?

@chikinhsieh1503

Жыл бұрын

We won't able to find out. Because by then the earth will be destroyed, all will cook

@TheWhiteWolf2077

Жыл бұрын

China wants to rule the world in every way so. It's inevitable.

@spvlinn9009

Жыл бұрын

Brained washed by the medium.

@r.d.9399

Жыл бұрын

We should destroy the entire country. Every single piece of infrastructure. Our being soft on countries needs to end when we're at war. Dictatorships don't respect anything except power!

Congratulations. Your channel is one I make sure I watch every episode you put you. Thank you for your hard work.

Your sound quality is 5 x 5. Love your shows. Keep them coming. OohRah, GitSum. SemperFi!!! 🇺🇸👍🏻

I've heard the new 6th Gen US fighter may be larger and more along the size of a bomber to give it much larger ranges. I think this was a major factor in the helicopter choice the Army made to replace the Black Hawks. They picked the one with the longest range. US military is making a shift to a Pacific theater war.

@maclain728

Жыл бұрын

Are you talking about NGAD? If so that’s 6th gen, not 5th

@MauricioBarragan

Жыл бұрын

@@maclain728 facts.

@secretbassrigs

Жыл бұрын

The scenarios do not consider China Itself being targeted in counterattacks. cowards lose wars.

@secretbassrigs

Жыл бұрын

And Chinese tech is based on Russian Tech. We all have seen how badly Russia's Tech performed in Ukraine.

@BaldHeadedManc

Жыл бұрын

The new 5th gen fighter? The one that was developed in the 1990's..? 😂💀

I'd sure like to hear more about the use of submarine forces in this conflict. It seems to me that conventional ballistic missiles and torpedoes launched from US submarines would be a significant factor in repelling a Chinese naval expeditionary force. While China does have a comprehensive submarine force, it is generally accepted to be significantly inferior to the US submarine force.

@louisquatorze9280

Жыл бұрын

excellent point

@thomasbarrack1384

Жыл бұрын

Only problem with the use of ballistic missiles is that they are meant to target stationary targets, generally speaking very very far away

@Jsiori

Жыл бұрын

On top of this, people always forget about Taiwan's own submarine program which started in 2017 that the allies are helping it build, which would also be on par or better than Chinese subs. I suspect China would have a real difficult time in the Taiwan straight.

@MrAjmay1

Жыл бұрын

The games predict that USN attack subs (SSN - LA/Seawolf/Virginia classes), have a DEVASTATING effect on PLA-N operations, but also suffer major losses (a dozen or so subs, depending on scenario, are lost). This is consistent with prior World Wars, when subs (on all sides) "punched FAR above their weight" in terms of damage to shipping. They're just lethal as hell... but China would understandably do everything in their considerable power to ensure that many WILL be sunk. This kind of industrial-scale war hasn't been seen in 3/4 a century...

@MK0272

Жыл бұрын

This sort of scenario seems tailor made for the converted Ohio class SSGNs with their 168 Tomahawks apiece. It would be nice to see the rest of the Ohios retained and converted as the Columbia class subs come on line. I know the new Virginias are supposed to have 40 vertical launch tubes, but there's no such thing as too much firepower.

Great delivery, informative and also a clear speaker for us guys with bad hearing.

As a US Army Brat, I lived on Taiwan back in 1954-56. I went on to become a US Merchant Marine officer and returned to Taiwan on a regular basis for almost 30 years. I say this because this specific conflict has been a concern since I can remember. I would like to commend Alex on a well documented video. His efforts mean so much to many people to keep up with what is going on there. I know there were certain points that were not mentioned. I can only hope that the people in charge know what they are doing.

@danhtran6401

Жыл бұрын

That only means China ain't going to do shit...

@bryanjackson8917

Жыл бұрын

I have seen some previous war game scenarios where the initial attack by China would be simultaneously made on Japan and Guam. However, an attack on Guam would definitely bring NATO countries into the conflict almost immediately, as Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, NATO's founding document, says that any attack on a NATO member in Europe or North America “shall be considered an attack against them all”, and Guam is part of the US, a member of NATO. So unless a war game scenario considers and factors this into its calculations and equations, it cannot at all be considered to be realistic. So the question is, did any of the CSIS war game scenarios do so? Also, to think that a US President would order the US Navy to sail one let alone two aircraft carriers into the strait of Taiwan as a 'show of force' or for any reason other than to help recover Chinese bodies from the sea is rather ludicrous and absurd. So any war game scenarios that factor this into the equation are not to be taken too seriously.

@drummerdoingstuff5020

Жыл бұрын

@@bryanjackson8917 how old are you? Did you serve in WW2??

@bryanjackson8917

Жыл бұрын

@@drummerdoingstuff5020 Why would any of that matter?

@samuellowekey9271

Жыл бұрын

It seems to me all these war game scenarios play out with the assumption that China strikes the first blows. But if a guy says he's going to shoot me, pulls out a pistol, loads it, then chambers a round, i would take that as my cue to shoot him first.

Echo is still there and I don't care; the content is so good that the sound quality is part of your brand now!

@atomicswoosh

Жыл бұрын

I second this, the content far outweighs sound quality. Just give me that sweet sweet analysis!

Yes, please make the A I videos you mentioned in this presentation. Thanks and keep up the meaningful, timely, accurate, and important good work videos.

Like many or most of your presentations I found myself staying up all night thinking about what you're talking about. It's all about education and good information that keeps me up at night.

It was a hypothesis in the 90s that we would lose at least one carrier. Another great video Alex!

@secretbassrigs

Жыл бұрын

in reality, China already tried to invade Taiwan two pervious times, and failed.

Another missile that would be vital would be the aim-260 ! If you can I would also like to see a video on them

An excellent presentation ! Thanks, Alex.

Thanks for all you do.

Sun Tzu said the best war was the one you won without ever having to fight

Being prepared means being prepared for losses. That's how it was explained to me by a US Navy officer, on the front line, stationed nearest to the Taiwan Strait. Only sending missal destroyers into the strait may be a better option as a show of force though. Less targets, easier to defend since they won't have to defend the carriers as well. The US really needs 30 additional missal destroyers in the region, or some lower cost BMD's. With drone swarm attacks/missal barrage that will certainly be the strategy against any carrier fleet, it's long past time the US field sea based, dedicated missal defense platforms in large numbers. Maybe THAAD has already been integrated into US AEGIS fleet defense. Would actually love to see a video on what we know about the layered missal fleet defense. Cool shit, keep it up dude!

@phantom0456

Жыл бұрын

Missal Wyldough!

@raygunreagan2274

Жыл бұрын

Why would they use thaad when they already have sm3 sm6 and sm2 literally no point

@keirfarnum6811

Жыл бұрын

It’s spelled “missile.” Spellcheck dude. It’s free.

@mrspaceman2764

Жыл бұрын

@@keirfarnum6811 It was actually spellcheck's lack of options. I typed missel and missal was the option. Both public school and spellcheck failed me. Or maybe I didn't really give either the chance they disserved. Either way, you've given me a lot to think about. Thanks for taking the time...Dude! 🙏

@mrspaceman2764

Жыл бұрын

​@@raygunreagan2274 Exactly the question I was asking. I would love to see this channel do a video specifically on layered missal defense for carrier groups, specifically with regard to the defense of Taiwan. Why not cover Taiwan with THAAD, then position the carrier group just south of the island? We've sold them the Patriot system, then another round just recently for the upgraded version. If being overwhelmed is the risk, comprehensive mitigation seems in order. Maybe the distance is too short for THAAD to protect the island effectively but in defense of a carrier group a couple hundred miles off shore, that's in range for cross strait air defense is another story. If the SM's were enough, why are we still talking about being overwhelmed? Granted, we may not be able to fully mitigate the risk since China has the home field advantage logistically but I'm guessing THAAD coverage in Taiwan would be cheaper than building more missal destroyers and would send Beijing yet another clear message.

Matatan.⭐🤔⭐. Ribirin HS, Excellent videos well done, keep making great job like this one, Be safe fellas,

I love this chanel, I look for new videos every morning, again at lunch and in the arvo . Great work, love from Manly beach Australia

I'm glad to see the rest of the channel brought up to speed with the quality of your research and reporting. Hell yeah brother.

You bring up a good point about how long it would take the US to recover from that fight. Could you possibly do a video on how the recovery might play out and what could be done to expedite the restoration of forces? One possibility I heard suggested was industrial conscription - essentially drafting people with certain skills (welders, pipefitters, electricians, etc) and putting them to work in defense industries.

@The136th

Жыл бұрын

The issues is not workforce is the lack of proper infrastructure and factories in the USA, that thing takes 10yr to build

@joelrunyan1608

Жыл бұрын

If we wiped out china's military? We wouldn't need to replace the stuff we lost

@joelrunyan1608

Жыл бұрын

@@The136th no. It doesn't. Not if the government directs it

@vueport99

Жыл бұрын

@@The136th it won't take 10 years as long as there's the will to do it. However, it will be disruptive to civilian businesses. Don't forget it took them literally days to come up with the bunker-buster bombs during the Iraqi war!

@rich24h

Жыл бұрын

That's precisely what will happen US industry will turn to the war effort, these scenarios dont take this into consideration, also the US's ability to place a physical and business embargo on China.

Great video Alex, very insightful. Regarding the aircraft on allied bases; I wonder if there's a way to protect aircraft on the tarmac with an underground bunker/hangar. I think about Pearl Harbor and how many aircraft we lost before they could get off the ground.

@foxglow6798

8 ай бұрын

The inherent problem with subterranean or embedded hangars are that you don't even need to destroy the planes anymore, you can just destroy the entrance and the job is done.

Sounds JUST fine !!! THANKS !!!

Excellent presentation of the CSIS war game scenarios. Visual presentation synchronized perfectly with your narration. Sound check A-OK. Good job.

Love the video! As once being a key part of the battlefield, it's always the little things that matter. So slow is smooth, and smooth is fast. Keep up the great work!

I have few suggestions. Just know I love the content you give.

I like the depth you went into with the war game scenarios, Although the different outcomes would not be insignificant, I think we should also look at Iran and Russia wanting to hit us if we are focused on China and Taiwan. Plus North Korea might think this is an opportune time to land a punch to the U.S, Have you found any alternate scenarios that include dealing with those fronts? Great presentation Alex.

@9393timm

Жыл бұрын

Russia has its hands full and Iran would have to deal with the 6th Fleet.. I don't doubt for a moment N Korea would want in with China giving them some cover.. One important factor not discussed is amphibious vehicles landing on Taiwan would be met with intense fire from shore and not easy to overcome at all

@xtreme7584

Жыл бұрын

China vs taiwan + us N.k. vs s.k. japan Iran will only support Russia is battered when that time comes.

@HamsterDesertEagle

Жыл бұрын

Well we’d have EU and Canada, japan, South Korea and maybe others. So bring it!

@youarebeingtrolled6954

Жыл бұрын

Bring it? There wont be a world left to bring😂

@NeostormXLMAX

7 ай бұрын

@@HamsterDesertEaglesouth korea would be destroyed or devastated from a north korean attack the war games dont even consider south korea to be a player

Those jets look so cool. Puts a smile on my face just watching them. Great presentation my man ;)

I’m curious how useful these war games are since cyber warfare would be a significant factor and the capabilities and vulnerabilities of their effects are not only closely held secrets but their level of efficacy is also not known.

@njpme

Жыл бұрын

We thought it would have done more in the Ukraine-Russia war, but it hasn't really materialized like that

@willstikken5619

Жыл бұрын

I do not know much about the Chinese susceptibility to cyber warefare but I do know people generally sim-understand what the term means. On the battle field it is likely to be a non-issue rather than a series threat. When it comes to inconveniencing and disillusioning the us population for the duration of the war it is likely to be very effective.

@DOSFS

Жыл бұрын

dIt will, but hardware also importance. Most of military hardware is compartmentalized and has redundancies so it wouldn't be like in movie that one hack and then entire force is died, that is fantasy. Both side will cyberattack each others and defend the attack. Even if cyberattack is that effective, They will just adapt to the threat and just keep fighting.

@KKH808

Жыл бұрын

The cyber attacks will probably be more effective against our power grid and industries rather than the military.

@voidremoved

Жыл бұрын

China and Russia can crush you easy. If they wanted to but they are super nice and patient and waiting for you to wake up. Free Assange and etc

The US didn't know anything how Chinese air defence can detect stealth fighter and destroyed it

The sound is great now!

It would be nice if they upgraded the B-1 fleet the B-1R as a super cruise long range Missile Truck with the Prat & Whitney F-119 engines like they were planning on doing back in 2005.

@stupidburp

Жыл бұрын

Could also become relatively low observable without sacrificing top speed by using modern design features. Serpentine engine intakes, jigsaw panel edges, and chines along the nose would help a huge amount without the need for extra maintenance or exotic materials. Doesn’t need to be fully stealthy like the B-21. Just sneaky enough to get safely within 100-150 miles or so and drop missile spam. Could launch from further out for some types of missiles of course.

@jeffbenton6183

Жыл бұрын

@@stupidburp It already has some of those. Serpentine intakes are part of the reason why the B-1B has a top speed of around Mach 1.2, whereas the original B-1A had a top speed of Mach 2.2. In spite of how huge it is, the B-1B has a fighter-sized RCS.

@alexanderscott9001

Жыл бұрын

I remember them considering the B-1 for that. But seems like they shifted to the F-15EX instead to be the missle truck. A combination of both with F-22's and F-35's conducting anti-air and being quarterbacks ..wouldn't want to be on the receiving end of that.

Ukraine standing alone was supposed to fall in weeks. The Friction of War is unpredictable and generally favors the defender. Even more so when you have to cross a 100 mile strait. Don't count Taiwan out, even if alone.

@LordMarksman14

Жыл бұрын

Ukraine is still standing only because of US and NATO support. Despite that Ukraine is already in ruins.

@mojothemigo

Жыл бұрын

@@LordMarksman14 Taiwan will get even more then Ukraine as it is more economically important and if Ukraine is still pissed and willing to fight then I am sure Taiwan will be as well

@tomk3732

Жыл бұрын

Ukraine did fall alone within 6 weeks - this is when their artillery ammo stopped coming form stores as it was gone. But whole NATO sent 1000s of armored vehicles and 10,000s of missiles. Ukraine also decided not to have any economy and is simply living on handouts - even food. So all of its men can be conscripted.

@GowthamNatarajanAI

Жыл бұрын

@@tomk3732 NATO did not send a many armored vehicle till now. And with Ukraine having a upper hand now, in the long term Ukraine will recover.

@buildmotosykletist1987

Жыл бұрын

@@LordMarksman14 : You should talk with the Russian bikers I chat with. Russia is in ruins, they are really hurting inside Russia now.

Well done!

Awesome Reporting!

Thanks for all the work you do in creating these videos mate! 🇦🇺

Always mindblowing and engaging Alex. Please keep making these for as long as you can.

@NazriB

Жыл бұрын

Lies again? Apex Predator True Anal

What about using some simple foam around where your voice is projected could keep the echo at bay.

Hey Alex, thank you for the all of your videos in your coverage, I really appreciate it. For your microphone try like a truckers Bluetooth you know like blue tiger blue tiger has a lot of products that are good. I use the advantage it’s supposed to be more of a military grade construction but it’s got a noise canceling mic it’s like the one I have is like half of a headset which means it’s one ear phone and then it’s a boom mic that’s adjustable, but I’ve spoken to people in the midst of being at 70 mile an hour winds up in the plateau of Hermiston. You know if you could hear me just picture perfect anyway, I would try that you’re certain eat your recent changes OK but it still needs a little bit to be desired anyway, just thought I’d let you know. Thank you.

A strange game. The only winning move is not to play.

This would depend a LOT on Chinese maritime ISR capabilities... but what about decoy carriers? Even decoy carrier strike groups? Container ships larger than carriers have been built for decades. For a tiny fraction of the cost of building a carrier, seems like you could modify several container ships to match carrier speed and radar, IR, and emissions signature. Option One would be to include 4-6 of these in each actual CSG, which would greatly dilute the incoming strike. If you want to get fancy, load the decoys with a bunch of VLS cells, altho that adds to cost. Option Two would be to generate entire fake CSG's, with cheap decoy (autonomous) escorts. Picture a Chinese strike commander trying to decide among like 5 widely separated task forces, only 1-2 of which can be real. If the Chinese can persistently surveil all of these for many hours, eventually they'll see which groups are launching/recovering aircraft and which aren't... but constantly surveiling multiple task groups for 10-20 hours would be HARD, especially if the missiles are already flying.

@peterstanton1580

Жыл бұрын

Good idea. An old cruise ship is the same size as a carrier.

@youarebeingtrolled6954

Жыл бұрын

No one gonna fall for that 😂😂

@peterstanton1580

Жыл бұрын

@@youarebeingtrolled6954 How do you know? It is easy to put EM devices on a container ship to mimic a carrier. You need an outdated X band radar emitter, fake radio chatter, and perhaps a helo to simulate flight operations. Hey troll. Why do you think there are SO MANY friendly fire incidents in modern war? Beyond visual range, even modern tech cannot verify identity with certainty. You cannot be sure unless you have "eyes on" the target. I laugh in your general direction. 😂

@doujinflip

10 ай бұрын

Subsonic ASMs with multiple cross-referenced sensors might not, but an expensive hypersonic missile going too fast with a tiny onboard package likely would not know the difference between a flattop and a similarly-shaped container carrier.

@NeostormXLMAX

7 ай бұрын

More like china will simply fund oppositions and rig elections in taiwan or blockade them lmao

Would love a video on your production processes.

Great assessment!!

Here is a good quote from Forbes: "Lost carriers could not be replaced because the current shipyard capacity is sufficient only to *maintain* the current carrier force".

@vueport99

Жыл бұрын

unless Korea / Japan's industrial complex who has a vested interest in that region are called upon to help!

@rich24h

Жыл бұрын

That makes no sense carriers are built and set out to sea, this idea that a ship yard can do maintenance makes no sense at all. That's like saying tanks cant be replaced because the factories are only capable of doing maintenance a war with china will be on par with WWII and the effort it took to fight it.

@scottsmith7051

Жыл бұрын

CURRENT, is the key word.

@mojothemigo

Жыл бұрын

Forbes is shite. Remember them quoting the Secretary of the Air Force comparing the F-35 to a Ferrari and insisting that meant the AF admitting it was a failure? They might be right on this specific issue, but they are not a legit site for info

@spiffyracc

Жыл бұрын

We can get by with fewer carriers in a world where both Russia and China have just taken massive military losses.

I’d definitely like to hear about those video processing AIs you listed

Excellent report.

@Sandboxx Good summary of the CSIS report's discussion of the long-range bomber fleet and the JASSM-ER and LRASM, it would have been good for you to talk more about the report's other major air power-relevant recommendation: building way more hardened aircraft shelters in Japan and Guam and also dispersing US aircraft in Japan to civilian airports. Even if the JASSM-ER can be effective against naval targets, you still don't want to lose hundreds of fighter aircraft on the ground to PLA cluster munitions. Perhaps you should do another video just on that.

I think some of the most important air platforms that are often overlooked are the rapid dragon development and also the Sky Warden. Between those two systems in good numbers and a handful of 5th gens you could absolutely level pretty much any opposing force you want. I really want to see the Air Force go balls out and order like 5,000 Sky Wardens 😂 just to see our adversaries just shit themselves

@rationalpear1816

Жыл бұрын

Hence my belief the b-21 is a stupid thing to built. the money would be much better spent on building up missile inventories and drones for air and sea.

@briana5444

Жыл бұрын

@@rationalpear1816 I would disagree, the platform itself is incredibly important for a spearhead and it’ll also double as essentially an ISR and AWACS platform. Also over the long run these will be cheaper than B-2s

@rationalpear1816

Жыл бұрын

@@briana5444 ok. Put the electronic tech and upgraded radar absorbing coatings on a convention aircraft. Tip of the spear? Isn’t that what F-22/F-35 are for? They go in first to clear air defense and enemy aircraft. They could also escort heavy convention bombers loaded with cruise missiles as mentioned in vid. What’s the mission that only a stealth bomber can accomplish and how likely is that mission going to be necessary? If I can buy 300-400 cruise missiles for the cost of 1 b-21. Give me the missiles every time.

@JMurph2015

Жыл бұрын

@@rationalpear1816 The B-21 is the future crown jewel of the USAF. In some medium future 6.5gen war, the only human pilots in an entire formation will probably be sitting in a B-21 cruising at ~60,000 ft. The fighters will be AI powered pitbulls that can pull 25g's without breaking a sweat, the forward ISR will be provided by high-flying, ultra-stealthy RQ-180's, and the majority of the ordinance (except maybe especially sensitive stuff like nukes) will be carried by stealthy, attritable strike aircraft. This is pure speculation of course, and I'm not privy to anything non-public on that, but it's pretty clear that is the direction warfare is going. Reliable long range strike in highly contested airspace is something that will be critical for a long time in the future. None of Rapid Dragon, Sky Warden, or Valkyrie actually achieve that. Valkyrie isn't as stealthy as the B-21 and would very likely get shot down in missions that look something like "fly directly over their fleet and drop JDAMs on the ships". Rapid Dragon is not very economical in a protracted war because its munitions are very expensive (JASSM-ER's are a couple million USD a piece). Lastly, from what I understand, the B-21's will be cheaper per unit to start than the B-2s ever were.

@rationalpear1816

Жыл бұрын

@@JMurph2015 seems kind of like you are making my case. Lots and lots (aka attritable) stealth drones. still don’t see the need for a stealth bomber. I mean what are bombers for? What’s their mission? To destroy targets on the ground with a massive amount of explosives. Stand off weapons and stealth drones can fulfill that mission for a lot less cost than losing a single b-21. Why do you need stealth? Well, you have to go into well defend airspace to drop your bombs, but we don’t need to fly into defended airspace to blow shit up. And in the infinitesimal possibility that we have to, we have f-22/f-35 to clear a path for a less stealthy bomb. It seems like the war games prove that in a near peer/peer conflict, the absolute number of missiles and drones is what is necessary. I just don’t see what the b-21 is supposed to do that is not possible any other way. It’s being built to fight the last war if not a few wars ago.

Anti-satellite and cyber warfare would play a big role here.

@brittgayle467

Жыл бұрын

Exactly! I wonder how well the US Navy could function without satellites

@cgpxae2119

Жыл бұрын

@@brittgayle467 or the Chinese navy

@simonlee7077

Жыл бұрын

@@cgpxae2119 If you knock out the appropriate Chinese satellites, their ASBMs can't actually target anything beyond the coast such as Guam. Unless they send a spy plane to discover the location of the carrier, which of course is not happening since the navy would never allow that to happen

I like to hear how the B2 would be used to deliver anti-ship missiles.

Coming from a Vietnam war era veteran who has served as an Army Paratrooper, and a US Marine, I think we should avoid going to war with China. Remember the Vietnam war scenario? Remember the Korea war scenario?

A year ago I would have thought that the anticipated failure of mission and losses to the PLA would have been enough of a deterrent for this to be an unlikely event. Recent European events have tempered that optimism. Whatever ends up happening, our advance notice will be a PLAN blockade of Taiwan.

@jacobnugent8159

Жыл бұрын

Unstable regimes make incredibly stupid decisions

@doujinflip

Жыл бұрын

We can also react quicker, owing to our much larger logistics network and practice moving materiel with it. If anyone's giving advance notice of a serious mobilization, it'd be the PLA.

@stupidburp

Жыл бұрын

The CCP is fully willing to accept massive losses in resources and manpower to achieve a political objective. The continued existence of the Republic of China in Taiwan represents an existential threat to them because they have a legitimate claim on all of China as a continuation of the previous government that the CCP rebelled against.

@Bk6346

Жыл бұрын

After Ukraine doubt China will invade Taiwan, it would be too costly or bloody. They may have a limited war, blockade or harass Taiwan like they did in the 1950’s or 60’s when they fired artillery at each other. This likely would not trigger a war between China against USA or Japan. Just like China had skirmishes with India and Soviet Union in the past or North Korea killed an pair US Army Officers in 1976 there were a few punches thrown but no one wanted a full scale war. No one wants a nuclear war.

@johnedwards2759

Жыл бұрын

80 per cent of China's oil comes from the Middle East and passes thru the Straits of Malacca. America simply sinks all Chinese oil tankers with their subs. Or parks an aircraft carrier off the Straits of Hormuz with 50 destroyers and 50 fast attack subs to guard it and sinks every Chinese oil tanker that goes by. Or simply sinks every Chinese tanker with B-2 Spirit stealth bomber. China shuts down. Begs for peace.

I wonder if they have large simulations AI controlled ships/fighters that simulate millions of battles and reduce the outcomes to a readable data set. That would be pretty neat and kind of fun to just watch a couple of them play out in a 3D rendering

I have a question about China's hypersonic antiship missiles. Have they ever been tested against a moving target in the Pacific? How is the PLA even sure they will work? If someone has a video of this weapons test (even a Xinhua video), can you please share or send me a link? Thanks.

I think you've got the best accent I've ever heard, I hope that some professors in the San Francisco Bay area talk the same way

Totally enjoy your wonderful program.

the battle in outer space would probably be involved in this scenario as well. GPS satellites would be vulnerable. who has the best satellite destroying ability would probably not be know until the battle starts. neither side wants to reveal their secrets ahead of time.

@kennethng8346

Жыл бұрын

Personally I would be curious if American GPS systems have the ability to use multiple SATNAV systems in case one of them is jammed.

@vannan6844

Жыл бұрын

Kessler Syndrome would (I hope) be an effective deterrent that terrible idea. We all heavily rely on our in orbit infrastructure and threatening that would yank the world decades back into the past

@maciek_k.cichon

Жыл бұрын

I thing there would be a possibility, that the Chinese would use GPS themselves. It's too useful tool to be destroyed imo.

@ms3862

Жыл бұрын

That would be a mistake. Attacking space would almost certainly result in instant nuclear war

@stupidburp

Жыл бұрын

It doesn’t matter which side has better anti sat missiles. Either side is capable of destroying all militarily useful satellites in orbit in a short period of time. There is no practical defense against this. It is probable that the large numbers of destroyed satellites would create enough orbital debris to endanger all other satellites and space stations. The ISS would likely need to be evacuated. Satellites operated by other countries would likely receive damage and could potentially create further debris.

GOd bless America from phillipens

Yet, so correct!

Great job, Alex, really great and deeply appreciated that you take the time to put this together for us. I've downloaded your primary source, and I'm reading it. (At least until Perun drops his next video...) Would you consider a video where you take the base scenario result and flesh it out for us? Move some counters on the map, draw some weapon system radii, move a (fictionally named) supercarrier to 100 miles NE and then show us Chinese ordinance coming in until we lose it. On page 93, they've got 36,000 troops occupying 2,600 sq km, is that a few percent of Taiwan or is that most of the flat plain on one side of the island? The time and resources on your part would be immense, and it would be crucial to stay on your message of deterrence and avoiding this horror, but you might be able to make it vivid for us.

@edwardklein5770

Жыл бұрын

That sounds like a job for @TheOperationsRoom

This is the only channel I follow and get excited for the next video

I would have guessed that American submarines would be more important.

@doujinflip

10 ай бұрын

Within the Strait perhaps as minelayers, because otherwise the waters are too shallow to hide in for direct engagements

GOOD ADVICE AND COMMENTAY AT THE END.

Man o man that YF-23 was beautiful! A shame it didn’t make it to full scale production…Alex didn’t factor in the new raider bomber in this clash. I wonder how much of a help they would be?

As someone who doesn't know a lot about military strategy and capabilities I always find these videos very interesting. But also sad. The conclusion is usually that the best way to win a war like this is to prevent it from happening at all. Which requires technological and numerical advantages. Of course both sides recognize this. Which means the financial and personal loss in such a conflict would be very large as both sides amass larger and larger military forces. Is war inevitable? Hopefully not. But either way the amount of time and money lost to prevent it is incredible. And that money could do so much to help people at home. It's a shame that this type of military industrial complex is necessary to avoid conflict. And hopefully the massive amount of firepower never needs to be used and lives don't need to be lost.

I see your video shows the use of Nukes against a U.S. Naval strike group. Is this part of the wargame scenario? If so the outcome would be much different. Scorched Earth policy would be the outcome.

Your mic sounds great Alex.

I’d definitely watch a video on the AI-assisted parts of your video production process

My big problem with the analysis is assuming Chinese competence. Everyone thought Russia was going to just overrun Ukraine in weeks if now days. China has many of the same problems as Russia in terms of training, and they use many of the same systems. I don’t want to underestimate China, but I feel that over estimating China leaves the US paralyzed for no reason.

@Pyromanemac

Жыл бұрын

It also assumes their economy and population holds up looking enough that they'll be ready for a real conflict

@luigimrlgaming9484

Жыл бұрын

Chinas problem won’t be competence but experience. They will perform poorly at first but will gradually become better. They also have a much larger Economy so it is 10 times a bigger threat. China is the last military capable of potentially posing a significant problem.

@mikeharvey9184

Жыл бұрын

@@luigimrlgaming9484 I was going to reply something similar... but how long to get the needed experience? If most of your troops are decimated in the Straits within the first few months before they ever fire a shot, there may not be enough troops left to get experience.

@kokofan50

Жыл бұрын

@@luigimrlgaming9484 being inexperienced is being incompetent. Also, China is heavily dependent on trade through the area this war would be happening in, so their economy would quickly collapse

@luigimrlgaming9484

Жыл бұрын

@@kokofan50 They hope to screw everyone else over by stopping the Taiwan trade of microchips so that it’s still more equal just lower. They might be incompetent but mostly a big unknown

Alex, I suspect that GPS could/would be taken out by the Chinese. Do we have scenarios to use our weapons in that circumstance?

I do not put much stock in war games. If you remember the first gulf war, the loses predicted were far higher than what actually happened. As a fellow military guy, you know the military plans for the worse and ends up out performing what they had gamed. China has not tested their tec in a real battle. I think they would fair much worse than predicted.

@redneckurbantransplant5931

Жыл бұрын

@426firefly Yes missiles will be used. No questioning that. China has a much different view on weapons. They think good enough is great, just build a lot of them. The west has a different philosophy, near perfection. Less is more. A few years ago an Arleigh Burke class destroyer shot down a US satellite traveling at 15 thousand miles per hour. One shot, one kill.. Our way of testing is much more in-depth than China. Take the J-20 stealth jet China is testing now. Japan was able to track and target with no problem. The US stealth is much more advanced than what china has. Low band radar can tip off a China made system but cannot get a lock with a narrow band radar lock. China's tech is just way behind what we are fielding today and what is to come. China is not stupid, they will not chance a war knowing they will not fair well in a fight with the west. They will poke at us but never pick a fight.

When I read the title I immediately said, "YES!" I don't know if your titular assertion is correct but I want any excuse for more aircraft. We need a new century series of jets!

Yes please do video on the AI programs you use and how you use them. Thanks

Great insight

That was a great, and informative segment very detailed, and concise. But I have one question. What about the American submarine fleet. Are they just going to take the war off?

The interesting thing about wargames is that they always involve giving our people, knowing what they know about our methods and practices, the enemies tools, based on the assumption that their tools are the equivalent to ours. This is the safest option, but rarely turns out to be the reality. And what we would do with their tools is not necessarily what they would do with their tools. Our people, who are almost always more experienced and better equipped to succeed coming from a merit based society, as opposed to a clan or loyalty based one, can almost always do more with their tools than they can. That said, I would concur with the assessment that spamming the PLAN with JASSAM/LRASM swarms as quickly as possible until they lack the ability to support a landing is the appropriate strategy. Naval vessels on both sides inherently suffer from limits to their missile magazines, which can render a warship largely toothless and forced to retire to a friendly port after a single pitched engagement, even if they escape undamaged. This is why carrier battle groups are so vulnerable. Fortunately, so are theirs, so it comes down to who can overwhelm who's defenses first. Our bombers can deliver more, but they have multitudes of land based systems and loads of strategic depth. I believe that is why it is better to keep our carriers back under the defensive umbrella of the Japanese and Philippine archipelagos until the bulk of the Chinese missile forces are depleted or destroyed, and let our bombers and submarines do the bulk of the damage. Carrier based planes can still contribute greatly early on by protecting said bombers and contributing to the defense of Japanese and Philippine airspace, but by forcing the Chinese to contend with both land and sea based defenses from both the north and south of their intended operating area, we give both our land and sea based forces the best chance of survival. This, unfortunately, may mean that Taiwan itself is more exposed to the wrath of the PLAAF for a longer period of time, but the more China loses and the less it has to show for it could bring them to their senses sooner.

this is the second video where the intro mentions audio issues. ive yet to hear any. however, this only my third video on this channel. the other that mentioned audio was 9 months old.

I would love to see a video of how many different missiles and possible totals the US has stockpiled! I love your videos, thank you!

Just curious, did the wargames take into account drones, both kamikaze/suicide drones and armed? May not be effective against larger ships, but I have to imagine against landing craft suicide drones or drones armed with the newer laser guided versions of Hydra rockets or Hellfires would be somewhat effective. Look at Ukraine... cheap drones have had a waaaay larger impact than anyone expected.

@trumptookthevaccine1679

Жыл бұрын

Isn’t that just a cruise missile?

@1968gadgetyo

Жыл бұрын

Recoverable drones are good for recon. Commercial drones have range limit. And I doubt dropping a hand grenade on a 30 knots destroyer is going to work. Missiles are basically cheaper and heavier kamikaze.

@user-gc1hg9sp9k

Жыл бұрын

if Drone is take into account then china would have the upper hand, why? because china is the largest drone manufacture on earth, Even DJI itself are China company. So in the event of war china could bombard taiwan with massive amount of drone like Russia did with sharir drone

It would be interesting to see if the Switchblade 600 (at about $10K a piece) launched from Taiwan's shores could target the shaft of the propellor of the Chinese Ships. The Taiwanese Strait is only about 100 miles and the Switchblade 600 Non loiter range is 50 miles. I realize you don't typically send an anti-tank missle to target ships, but all you really have to do is keep the ships from reaching their destination, not necessarily destroy them.

@user-gc1hg9sp9k

Жыл бұрын

Untill you realized that china have the similar switchblade drone and could mass produce it more and cheaper than US

@user-gc1hg9sp9k

Жыл бұрын

Remember that 90 percent of drone are made in china, DJI the largest drone company are a Chinese company

@calvinblue894

Жыл бұрын

You want to fight drones with the KING OF DRONES

@whysoserious7553

Жыл бұрын

@@user-gc1hg9sp9k ya with US and western technology

@aarona222

Жыл бұрын

@Calvin Blue The U.S. will have to use drones. China will not spare their drones just because We don't deploy them.

I wonder if they factored in "Quicksink" basically a naval based jdam bow breaker.

The echo is from your room. Put up some sound panels, and it will go away.

Park the carriers on the eastern coast of Taiwan. If the DF-21s can hit them, so be it. This wargame seems to have the default scenario be "America gives China a Pearl Harbor opportunity for some reason and then stuff happens"

Alex, or anyone who might know...were American and Japanese subs figured into the scenarios? I'd like to think that would have made a big difference in stopping Chinese surface ships...especially since Chinese subs are still a ways behind in stealth and overall technology. ( from reports I've seen) great vid bro!!

@jascrandom9855

Жыл бұрын

Yes, they where.

@Bk6346

Жыл бұрын

But the Chinese would be hunting USA subs. Taiwan is only a 100 miles from mainland China. Not a particularly large area to hide and the Taiwan Strait is not that deep. You can bet China has the South China Seas monitored and no USA submarine can go undetected.

@jimkluska253

Жыл бұрын

@@Bk6346 with their cold war era sub technology?

@julwiezdeghorz5089

Жыл бұрын

One thing China have is the home court advantage. Us submarine will be more usefull than US airfroces which will have to fly thousands of miles after US airbases in S.Korea,Japan and Guam were destroyed by China's salvos of ballistic missiles.

@Bk6346

Жыл бұрын

@@jimkluska253 Strange that USA submarines are invisible and undetectable while Chinese submarines are inferior and easily detectable. During world war 2 the Germans lost 785 of their 1100 u-boats while the US Navy lost 52 submarines which was nearly 20% of their 263 submarines. In the case of war you can bet the enemy would be looking for the US submarines and some of them will be destroyed.

This one video that I have greatly anticipated, my friend. Thank you very much for taking the time to research, assemble and present this extremely thoughtful information. I pray that this never materializes. But I find myself more concerned about the unfolding of a world war than at any other point in my lifetime. Thanks again, my friend. May you and your family enjoy a safe and blessed weekend. May God be pleased to watch over and keep the great Republic that is the United States of America. 🇺🇸🦅🇺🇸🦅🇺🇸🦅🇺🇸🦅🇺🇸🦅🇺🇸🦅🇺🇸

can you show Super A 10S. and what about the super F4 🥳😎🤙🏼

Important to remember Taiwan also has a rugged interior mountain chain with it's own airfields.

@doujinflip

10 ай бұрын

The airfields might be so useful for that long, but the mountains are a great place to base an occupation-defeating insurgency and Taiwan built a substantial tunnel network in it already.

We'll soon have a new weapon in our arsenal, the quicksink bomb. This add-on kit to a Joint Direct Attack Munition turns a GPS guided bomb into a bomb that can seek out moving ships. An infrared nose attachment tracks the heat of a ship and causes the bomb to plunge under and explode beneath the ship's keel. This cracks the ship in half.

I seen the f35b all blacked out training in ma and it was doing some insane maneuvers

The upshot is, don't do it. But the OBVIOUS answer is GO for it and do the mop up with low cost crap. The stupidity of governments and regimes is obvious, too.

Another problem with such a conflict would be the loss of TSMC in Taiwan. They make so many processors for many companies that the world would be without for a long time. This might also hinder replacing all the assets lost in such a conflict.

@jonathanbaum3499

Жыл бұрын

It's one of the reasons they are building a factory in Texas.

@videogamez3238

Жыл бұрын

china cant even run their own chip companies, what makes you think theyll be able to use TSMCs stuff in any way lmao

@Michael-wo6ld

Жыл бұрын

@@videogamez3238 I'm sure there are special forces teams with standing orders to burn tsmc to the ground before letting china take it, but that wouldn't help everyone who uses their chips much, would it?

@richhead1999

Жыл бұрын

@@videogamez3238 who cares about China. The rest of the world uses chips using TSMC's fabs.

@videogamez3238

Жыл бұрын

@@richhead1999 no shit

God I hope this doesn’t have to happen

@jerrybond1757

Жыл бұрын

Let the games begin.

@jerrybond1757

Жыл бұрын

Let the games begin.

@1968gadgetyo

Жыл бұрын

Unless you are Lockheed or Boeing. US will take a hit, but China will not invade US soil. So the Military Defense Industry will be safe....Except for the US and Taiwan troops .

@GlitchNectar

Жыл бұрын

@@1968gadgetyo the repercussions on the world will go far beyond any war though. Would be an economic catastrophe

I dare Taiwan to declare independence. You might say that Taiwan is already independent, sure, they are so independent that they can't call themselves Taiwanese in the Olympics.

High endurance swarm drones will be the game changer. 👌

Every time I see the YF-23 I get a little sad. Some other allied nation should really foot the bill to bring that thing back.

@amaneyugihanako-kunofthesi8849

Жыл бұрын

Sadly, if it will be brought back, it will be a relic amongst Sixth-Generation Fighters coming up on the scene. You should also know that the earliest Raptors are now getting retired, one is now slated to become a museum piece just recently last year

Excellent video & explanation 👏. Keep in mind that, at least the military/DoD, war games are meant to find the best way to win the war/conflict. Also estimates of the enemy strength may be unrealistic, since their true status is kept secret & not shared. Even if the planners suspect the estimates are inflated, it would be wise to assume that they are as claimed. This helps to avoid nasty surprises & being overly optimistic about victory.

@jarednovel

Жыл бұрын

China will ensure that all carriers and islands like Guam are totally wiped out to deny the US the use of those facilities