What To Expect From The First Presidential Debate | 538 Politics Podcast

This Thursday, President Biden and former President Donald Trump will go head-to-head in the earliest presidential debate ever. It is also the first contest between a president and former president in over a century and the first debate not run by the Commission on Presidential Debates since 1988.
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew discusses whether historical expectations for presidential debates will apply in this unique situation. They also dissect some questionable uses of polling and preview a couple of high-profile primary races in New York and Colorado.
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Пікірлер: 67

  • @MrDowntemp0
    @MrDowntemp0Ай бұрын

    At the very least, an explanation as to why full episodes and videos aren't available here would be nice rather than constantly ignoring the complaints.

  • @mrwho995
    @mrwho995Ай бұрын

    It's just not the same without video

  • @prettyhatemachine101
    @prettyhatemachine101Ай бұрын

    I think no more video is my fault y'all, I kept lusting after Galen and Elliott in the comments and now I've ruined it for all of us!

  • @Flow86767

    @Flow86767

    Ай бұрын

    Lol

  • @jackkazinsky290
    @jackkazinsky290Ай бұрын

    again no video, please upload with the video, content is much more engaging

  • @WackadoodleMalarkey

    @WackadoodleMalarkey

    Ай бұрын

    At least give us the dancing fox animation

  • @CaiRobinson
    @CaiRobinsonАй бұрын

    really enjoying these, thanks for uploading them

  • @nomenclature9373
    @nomenclature9373Ай бұрын

    I will be watching while enjoying pizza, crudites and a mango smoothie.

  • @retireearly7223

    @retireearly7223

    Ай бұрын

    Is that you, Dr Oz?

  • @valdomero738

    @valdomero738

    Ай бұрын

    Based

  • @WackadoodleMalarkey

    @WackadoodleMalarkey

    Ай бұрын

    I'll be breaking a 48 hour fast with whiskey

  • @CB38096
    @CB38096Ай бұрын

    The first debate is going to have clips going around the internet all summer

  • @michaeldfarmer
    @michaeldfarmerАй бұрын

    I agree with Mary. People who say they will probably vote for a particular candidate will probably vote for that particular candidate.

  • @e-manr.486
    @e-manr.486Ай бұрын

    You guys should experiment with doing a live reaction to the debate on KZread on Thursday😉

  • @shaynedonnelly9596
    @shaynedonnelly9596Ай бұрын

    Wish we had video. It helps some of us to be able to read lips.

  • @darynvoss7883
    @darynvoss7883Ай бұрын

    You discuss the apparent disparity between how much experts say the debates can change the polling (3%) versus 17% of people saying the presidential debate has _ever_ changed their vote. These two stats are compatible. Firstly, the average voter in the USA is about 50 years old and has seen about 8 presidential elections as an adult. If they say that the debates affected them _ever_, it could be one time in eight. Secondly, the number of voters who switch their voting intention because of a particular debate is going to be greater than the expected poll change. 3% could change from Trump to Biden, 4% could change from Biden to Trump, that would be 7% of the population changed their voting intention but the overall poll change is 1%.

  • @vanadyan1674
    @vanadyan1674Ай бұрын

    I expect it to be simultaneously the best comedy and the best tragedy on television that night.

  • @MeItsLiterallyMe
    @MeItsLiterallyMeАй бұрын

    Well I'm never swimming in fresh water again

  • @obibon4548

    @obibon4548

    Ай бұрын

    😂

  • @georgeharris6851

    @georgeharris6851

    Ай бұрын

    On the bright side, a snake with a fish in their mouth is kind of stuck, and can't bite you.

  • @porecemusnox8805

    @porecemusnox8805

    Ай бұрын

    @@georgeharris6851 Catfishs have some nasty spines ... the snake was wielding a weapon!

  • @georgeharris6851

    @georgeharris6851

    Ай бұрын

    @@porecemusnox8805 I've skinned catfish, and I've seen a copperhead eating a fish. The snake is very vulnerable at that time, and I'd rather deal with a snake with a fish in its mouth, than one ready to bite.

  • @porecemusnox8805

    @porecemusnox8805

    Ай бұрын

    @@georgeharris6851 I agree. I'd like to avoid close proximity to Cottonmouths or Coppers, too. That being said, my comment was not meant to be taken seriously. 🙂

  • @georgeharris6851
    @georgeharris6851Ай бұрын

    Could it be that right now, a lot of the polling is a referendum on the incumbent, especially President. And as the election draws closer. Then it becomes a true horse race between the two candidates?

  • @mitchellmartin4580

    @mitchellmartin4580

    Ай бұрын

    Possibly. Really hard to say what's influencing peoples' responses to polls.

  • @BrightyLighty_
    @BrightyLighty_Ай бұрын

    where video?

  • @jannichi6431
    @jannichi6431Ай бұрын

    Is You Tube monitoring its 3rd partiers? Commercials galore now chopping up into 2 minutes...GREEDY...comments and quality interrupted.😡

  • @JKDC97
    @JKDC97Ай бұрын

    The little comical preview at the beginning of each episode (or now podcast?) is completely ununegaging and ineffective now that theres no accompanying video. Might as well just scrap it because its complerely pointless.

  • @funkycold50
    @funkycold50Ай бұрын

    This episode was a cope fest 😂

  • @jl8942
    @jl8942Ай бұрын

    I am not developmentally stunted, so the lack of video doesn't bother me😊

  • @CoolDogsify
    @CoolDogsifyАй бұрын

    It's clear that 538 is not paying their Video Editor enough money.

  • @steveyoung9687

    @steveyoung9687

    Ай бұрын

    Probably laid them off. ABC has killed 538.

  • @WackadoodleMalarkey

    @WackadoodleMalarkey

    Ай бұрын

    $5.38/hr

  • @steveyoung9687
    @steveyoung9687Ай бұрын

    No video? I guess you're done with video. I'm unsubscribing, thanks for the good content in prior years.

  • @bmeht

    @bmeht

    Ай бұрын

    It's ok they're kinda useless anyway

  • @valdomero738

    @valdomero738

    Ай бұрын

    Girl, same.

  • @emmanuelwinner4149
    @emmanuelwinner4149Ай бұрын

    Expect Dementia Don to poop his pants and run away.

  • @davidsommerfeldt9588

    @davidsommerfeldt9588

    Ай бұрын

    Ok, don’t let me down!!!!!

  • @nomenclature9373

    @nomenclature9373

    Ай бұрын

    Welp, they do have a couple of breaks built in.

  • @IbrahimaKone-g5r
    @IbrahimaKone-g5rАй бұрын

    ;j'aime

  • @kennethcrowe7961
    @kennethcrowe7961Ай бұрын

    Spin lie spin lie

  • @amyw6922
    @amyw6922Ай бұрын

    Just remember a vote for a Third Party candidate is in effect a vote for Trump and autocracy

  • @stevenwiederholt7000
    @stevenwiederholt7000Ай бұрын

    Can we expect an apology when none/little of this happens?

  • @andrewschneck4404
    @andrewschneck4404Ай бұрын

    It will be a complete s#!tshow

  • @vladsaveluc2659
    @vladsaveluc2659Ай бұрын

    I expect CNN to be in Biden's pocket and give him the questions in advance

  • @rentslave
    @rentslaveАй бұрын

    The White House physician will be arrested for malpractice.

  • @brianlynch6935

    @brianlynch6935

    Ай бұрын

    You know Trump is going to lose 🤣🤣🤣

  • @nuqwestr
    @nuqwestrАй бұрын

    Biden falls down at the podium. That would be a debate point for Trump people would consider.

  • @bmeht
    @bmehtАй бұрын

    BOOOOOOO!!

  • @Handlethis342
    @Handlethis342Ай бұрын

    Never thought I'd see the President of the United States debate a convicted felon.

  • @dadejazzba402

    @dadejazzba402

    Ай бұрын

    Watch that flip...lol

  • @Handlethis342

    @Handlethis342

    Ай бұрын

    @@dadejazzba402 conspiracy theories are snuggle blankets for adults

  • @reubenhandel210
    @reubenhandel210Ай бұрын

    We expect bias from CNN

  • @alexamerling79
    @alexamerling79Ай бұрын

    For all those who wondered what they would have done in Nazi Germany, we are about to find out...

  • @josearroyo9350
    @josearroyo9350Ай бұрын

    Biden needs to take a drug test prior to the debate!!!!!!!

  • @mickael486

    @mickael486

    Ай бұрын

    don't be foolish with your confirmation bias bs.

  • @brianlynch6935

    @brianlynch6935

    Ай бұрын

    MAGA needs excuses 🤣🤣🤣

  • @nomenclature9373

    @nomenclature9373

    Ай бұрын

    So does DT. The debate pre-show should be mouth swabs, blood draws.

  • @patriciatollison8655
    @patriciatollison8655Ай бұрын

    They don't want their faces revealed.