What is Monte Carlo Simulation?

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Monte Carlo Simulation, also known as the Monte Carlo Method or a multiple probability simulation, is a mathematical technique, which is used to estimate the possible outcomes of an uncertain event. Watch master inventor Martin Keen explain how Monte Carlo Simulation may be your closest thing to a time machine - or more simply - how it may be a way to look into the future for making business decisions.
#AI #Software #ITModernization #MonteCarloSimulation #lightboard #IBM

Пікірлер: 70

  • @jaylee7672
    @jaylee7672 Жыл бұрын

    This guy just casually writing backwards on a piece of glass

  • @tsunningwah3471

    @tsunningwah3471

    Жыл бұрын

    no lol

  • @rahmatsheikh2909

    @rahmatsheikh2909

    Жыл бұрын

    You are seeing mirror flip of actual footage

  • @Woodward06

    @Woodward06

    11 ай бұрын

    Made it look easy

  • @hamishlivo

    @hamishlivo

    10 ай бұрын

    And he's left handed! He's just like Leonardo da Vinci 😂 Or the video is mirror flipped

  • @ariannalynntomilson8155

    @ariannalynntomilson8155

    10 ай бұрын

    I was thinking about this the whole time…

  • @aliampolizzi
    @aliampolizzi Жыл бұрын

    So there's much more to this man than beer, interesting.

  • @intothemultiverse1033
    @intothemultiverse1033 Жыл бұрын

    He’s really good at writing backwards

  • @IBMTechnology

    @IBMTechnology

    Жыл бұрын

    Search on "lightboard videos".

  • @tornghost

    @tornghost

    Ай бұрын

    I expect he writes the right way round and they just mirror the video, but I would love your take to be true!

  • @glitcharcing
    @glitcharcing Жыл бұрын

    Impeccable explanation, thank you.

  • @vipighuynh
    @vipighuynh Жыл бұрын

    Great content! Also this is the first time I have seen someone writing in reversal in front of a screen, which is amazing!

  • @linnil

    @linnil

    Жыл бұрын

    or they just inverted the video lol

  • @joedoe4249

    @joedoe4249

    Жыл бұрын

    Lol yeah they use a mirror

  • @CMF412

    @CMF412

    Жыл бұрын

    I get what you mean. I came to the comments to type the same thing.

  • @UnL1k3

    @UnL1k3

    3 ай бұрын

    Video is inverted: 1. For one, most people wear their watch on the left hand. 2. Assuming that is an apple watch, the knob is in the opposite side indicating an inverted video.

  • @JalanJalanAjah
    @JalanJalanAjah Жыл бұрын

    Thank you so much ❤️ I need this!

  • @rafaeldavidloaizabigott8975
    @rafaeldavidloaizabigott8975 Жыл бұрын

    Thanks for sharing this content!

  • @angelmeza6601
    @angelmeza6601 Жыл бұрын

    awesome explanation!!!

  • @ramkyadi
    @ramkyadi Жыл бұрын

    Thats a nice & crisp way of explaining to the point, thanks. But i was searching for a simulation, where it should optimize & estimate the better Sequence of different model mix Feed in a manufacturing line (single piece flow) but each model has different Process completion Cycle times from Feed to Final stage. It would be great help, if you can suggest a better way of handling this problem ?!

  • @amaarmarco530

    @amaarmarco530

    7 ай бұрын

    1-Separate every manufacturing Cycle for Every product-component 2-Build a Time series for Every INDIVIDUAL Component -(be careful of dependant variables time sequence) 3-Build a Time series for CURRENT Combination of ALL components till end product is produced (Be CAREFUL with dependant variables time sequence ) 4-Upload all data And time sequences into a Computer , Buy a Manufacturing Simulation program , upload all data, Run Simulation on ALL possible combination to final production 5-Upload all result to a Statistical-Calculator 6-Choose the one with the LEAST Time sequence of production 😃🐇🐰

  • @HauerPower11
    @HauerPower11 Жыл бұрын

    Could Monte carlo simulation be used to predict fatigue life of parts based upon historical data?

  • @lilbykings
    @lilbykings Жыл бұрын

    Thank you ❤

  • @dennis_doom
    @dennis_doom Жыл бұрын

    Great video. I'm wondering if this can be applied to time series forecasting based on historical data. For example forecast the demand of a product based on the price, number of units sold in a specific month etc. ¿Does anyone knows?

  • @DMH69

    @DMH69

    Жыл бұрын

    Isn't that how we predict inflation and deflation. GDP is based on this aspect.

  • @DMH69

    @DMH69

    Жыл бұрын

    Thank you for posing this question, developed my understanding of Monte Carlo better.

  • @amaarmarco530

    @amaarmarco530

    7 ай бұрын

    YES , It Can Do that , But it needs some initial variables to work with ,Some variables that are important to that are ,variables related to Game theory (other players in market) , Need or Demand metric (simply how needed or demanded the product) , local(individual) economical chain , And maybe another one or two variables, a Combination of Higher Values of 1st Variable And 2nd variable Will produce More elasticity in Demand (negative elasticity ), a Combination of Higher Values of 2nd variable , lower 2nd variables and Higher 3rd variable , The Less elasticity will be (Stable equilibrium), a combination between High 1st variable , High 2nd And 3rd variable , Will produce a Result of a Mid elasticity level of demand (Semi Stable equilibrium ), You Can introduce new variables to the mix , And The smarter you are observing levering-variables (High-weighted-variables) the More Accurate your model will be 🐇🐰🐰

  • @LiamRohan_

    @LiamRohan_

    Ай бұрын

    @@amaarmarco530 how would you generate the initial variables and weights in the simulation itself, is that even possible?

  • @ValFolarin
    @ValFolarin7 ай бұрын

    You should have used the dice example to example the three items of interest at the end

  • @cxtpace
    @cxtpace2 ай бұрын

    very interesting! what is the software to use for the simulation?

  • @venu2827
    @venu2827 Жыл бұрын

    Very nice

  • @CMF412
    @CMF412 Жыл бұрын

    This guy is a pro at writing backwards legibly.

  • @miraculixxs
    @miraculixxs11 ай бұрын

    Wont you just get back to the input prob distributions?

  • @shivayshakti6575
    @shivayshakti657511 ай бұрын

    Thanks super awesome, can we apply it to our own life!

  • @antwanwimberly1729
    @antwanwimberly1729 Жыл бұрын

    Neumont College of Computer Science checkin in

  • @AleemAhmed
    @AleemAhmed Жыл бұрын

    Wonderfully Explained. Looking for more great content from your side.

  • @amielhernandez
    @amielhernandez Жыл бұрын

    Please create a video tutorial about coagulation and how to simulate

  • @raychard123
    @raychard1235 ай бұрын

    Lol love the interactiveness you had with the video. I just want to know how the hell did you write backwards?! That's crazy impressive haha

  • @JonathanCutrell

    @JonathanCutrell

    4 ай бұрын

    This is exactly what I was wondering about!

  • @xodls8507
    @xodls85076 ай бұрын

    Dammmmmmmm you saved me.......... thank you so much!!! I was searching the whole internet to prepare for my school project about this... thanks..... This helped me the most

  • @dadisochitengwa1280
    @dadisochitengwa1280 Жыл бұрын

    You had me at wordle

  • @jasperb6191
    @jasperb6191 Жыл бұрын

    Hey isnt this the guy who brews beer?? This is Martin from The Homebrew Challenge!

  • @Nowuries01

    @Nowuries01

    11 ай бұрын

    Imagine my surprise when I'm trying to research this very technical subject and come upon my favorite KZread brewer!

  • @sirk3v
    @sirk3v Жыл бұрын

    is this the same principle underlying how neural nets are able to predict things?

  • @guilhermebiem582

    @guilhermebiem582

    Ай бұрын

    No. But monte carlo can be used in conjunction with neural networks in some specific settings

  • @bourne3106
    @bourne3106 Жыл бұрын

    So that’s how they predict the weather !

  • @johnterpack3940
    @johnterpack3940 Жыл бұрын

    How do you title a video "what is..." without ever demonstrating What Is the thing you're talking about? I didn't click to find out who uses Monte Carlo simulations. I clicked to understand how I might use one. There was zero instructive information in this video.

  • @spyhunter0066
    @spyhunter00668 ай бұрын

    We use it in nuclear physics in particle collisions. You can use it in math to estimate integrals, and so on.

  • @ranmouri9544

    @ranmouri9544

    4 ай бұрын

    Hello, I'm just curious how exactly does monte carlo work in particle collisions?

  • @amolk7184
    @amolk7184 Жыл бұрын

    Sounds like kalman filter with random inputs

  • @xianggu1874
    @xianggu18743 ай бұрын

    Is Monte Carlo Simulation same as Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation?

  • @guilhermebiem582

    @guilhermebiem582

    Ай бұрын

    Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) are a set of Monte Carlo techniques for effective sampling that are useful when the distribution is maybe high dimensional, unormalized (so you know that it is proportional to some quantity, but you don't know what exactly) or maybe just difficult to sample from for other reasons. The way these generally work are that when you have a sample with high probability, you will try to sample something close to that. In the example of tossing two dice (not a great example in this case because dice are discrete), the value with highest probability is 7, so when you simulate a seven, you are likely to get other values with high probability that are close to it next, like 6. The values that you're least likely to sample are the low probability ones, like 1 and 12. A few examples of MCMC algorithms are Metropolis-Hastings (probably the most general one), Gibbs, Langevin Monte Carlo and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. The video does a very poor job in explaining what Monte Carlo is btw

  • @xodls8507
    @xodls85076 ай бұрын

    아저씨 사랑해요..........ㅜㅜㅜㅜㅜㅜㅜㅜㅜㅜㅜㅜㅜㅜㅜㅜㅜㅜㅜㅜㅜㅜㅜㅜㅜ

  • @rejebeek2926
    @rejebeek2926 Жыл бұрын

    how is he writing the letters. its bothering me trying to figure out

  • @IBMTechnology

    @IBMTechnology

    Жыл бұрын

    Search on "lightboard videos".

  • @emont
    @emont5 ай бұрын

    With numeric methods and a 69 inputs of last lotto sequence this piece of technique can predict at least 3 numbers from lotto

  • @christian.hayden
    @christian.hayden Жыл бұрын

    Como el copi la explicación

  • @jamaisnunca
    @jamaisnunca Жыл бұрын

    Wow, I'm trying to code my neural network right now but monte carlo seems like the next path of evolution

  • @maddulamanohar2888
    @maddulamanohar2888 Жыл бұрын

    Random sampling

  • @alejandroarostegui4537
    @alejandroarostegui4537Ай бұрын

    So Monte Carlo simulation is what ancestors knew as Astrology = Data Science

  • @maviskim393
    @maviskim393 Жыл бұрын

    I am a beginner, and cannot understand a thing

  • @shenqinbin-studio
    @shenqinbin-studio Жыл бұрын

    全天候海洋监听系统 (SOSUS)

  • @manikroy7768
    @manikroy7768 Жыл бұрын

    No.

  • @cypheru5
    @cypheru5 Жыл бұрын

    What does 6*6*1000 give you? That number doesn't do anything. This video teaches nothing.

  • @asutepung5516

    @asutepung5516

    Жыл бұрын

    Kinda does buddy, I’m doing the CFA level 1 and it did help. Cheer up 🎉

  • @willyh.r.1216
    @willyh.r.1216Ай бұрын

    Can we predict the future? Of course NOT, otherwise models become helpless and many people getting richer quicker. So, it's boring.

  • @guilhermebiem582
    @guilhermebiem582Ай бұрын

    weird and somewhat misguiding

  • @derrickmcadoo3804
    @derrickmcadoo38044 ай бұрын

    Lame.