So well explained. This should be on the school curriculum. Thanks

@HeresyFinancial

3 жыл бұрын

Thank you Mydan

@angrydads6796

2 жыл бұрын

Absolutely. He needs to start a school /501c and bring financial education to all.

Really well explained! Subscribed on your channel! Thanks man!

Right on. So glad I found this channel 👍🏼

Awesome channel, great content as usual. Keep it up!

@HeresyFinancial

3 жыл бұрын

Thank you

Excellent breakdown. Thanks

Very informative that was a very intelligent show right there I am extremely impressed the best explanation for our economic system I've ever heard

Joe, You are so knowledgeable! Where were you when I had much more money! I honestly am a layman and unable to keep up, but slowly learning! Glad this is a video, I need to revisit this again for it all to sink in! Lol! I look forward to all your vids! Thanks for all you do for us!! Much appreciated!

Once again, well done, Sir! Thank you for your contribution to society :)

@HeresyFinancial

3 жыл бұрын

My pleasure

Thanks for your insights!

Take a look at a sheet of plywood new at the store to see inflation.

@Inventive15

2 жыл бұрын

~$100 now

Avg wages from 1930-1935 went from about $4800 to $480 per year, a factor of 10. The 2007/08 bailout era financial crisis was only $60Billion and the one that's right around the corner is $525Billion. Thanks to minimum wage average wages can only drop from $59,428 to $14,500(Federal min wage). Up to a 75% drop instead of a 90% drop. However, in California it can drop from $87,404 avg to 32K, up to a 63% drop. So in reality we're probably facing a 40-60% drop in prices followed by 12-24% inflation afterwards.

Wow. Incredible video.

@HeresyFinancial

3 жыл бұрын

Thanks Brad

Assets prices drop first, then Goods & services, lastly wages

Thanks! Go gold!

Joe, if we all get the same amount of money, but prices go down, where do you think this "same amount" of money comes from? (Min 11:30)

I recall in July I though to my self that when the cares act ended at the end of July that it would inflate the price of Precious Metals going into August, but that I felt a dip in the prices in September/October due to stimulus speaking events.

You seem to be saying (1) during inflation, hold assets (gold being an option), (2) during a deflation hold cash, but if you happen to be holding assets, then gold is preferred (because gold is unlikely to go bankrupt). Unfortunately, whether we end up with option #1 or #2 depends on federal bank(s) and government(s), and on the "management" they impose. Debt is effectively reduced by inflation, but CPI-indexed payments are reduced by deflation. So it seems there is an incentive for each... dunno.

We are entering a period of deflation, which will be used to bring in a cashless society, which then goes to negative interest rates. So if you plan on buying gold get it some time early next year or late this year. The central bankers plan to yo-yo inflation/deflation during this crisis, it slaughters a lot of people financially. Best bet is to get out of debt, keep a modest amount of money in the bank, don't get greedy, have some gold, avoid risky investments. This isn't the time to go out and buy a Ferrari on credit.

@KASPA-KEY

3 жыл бұрын

Yes I think they will yo yo but I'm betting they can create the inflation they need and they will probably over shoot. The last time there was a dramatic rate raise was with Volker who raised the prime rate to 21.5% in 1981 to fight inflation. I'm pretty sure they can't do that today ha ha. They need to inflate away all the debt in the system. The Fed's 2% inflation rate target is just an excuse. Trillions of dollars in national debt would explode if rates moved substantially higher. The Fed is actually stuck between a rock and the printing press. The US government will feel the most pain as it is the largest borrower. They will do whatever it takes. The deflationary forces will be strong and then the Fed will come to the rescue. They need to have deflationary spiral "emergencies" so the Fed can save everyone. It would not be politically palpable otherwise. Bubble popping is built into the system. Don't worry, the Fed will save us is the new mantra on Wall Street.

@bradvincent2586

3 жыл бұрын

I think this is very possible. But we also have to recognize it’s very possible the bankers lose. There’s always hope

@KASPA-KEY

3 жыл бұрын

@@bradvincent2586 Unfortunately big banks always come out on top with the regulators, no matter what the law says. Does anyone actually believe the banks will pay for the recent illegal money laundering. They might get a slap on the wrist. Banks have the home team home court advantage. There is a revolving door between JP Morgan and Washington. Take the bribes out of politics and you might have some hope. Bernie was right on that point. Cheers,

@bradvincent2586

3 жыл бұрын

Crappy Coin Oh I should have clarified. Yeah I think it’s highly unlikely the bankers and the Federal Reserve would suffer anything significant. By them losing, I meant it’s possible the common man wins and deflation will occur.

@samjordan8800

3 жыл бұрын

@Fuzzy Camel Now is the time to go shopping on credit - but only if you are buying hard assets that cashflow, or gold! Imagine paying 29% interest on $100,000 in credit buy buying $100,000 in gold and silver eagles or maple leaf coins? How do you pay the loan back? By borrowing a second $100,000! (Just kidding!) But the reality is, you could take the $100k and buy cashflowing assets like apartment buildings, do a little AirBNB and increase the cashflow, take the cashflow above the debt service on the apartment building(s) and use it to buy gold and silver every month.

Very good

Gold is both an inflationary and deflationary asset. The reason for this is that in an inflationary environment, gold will preserve its purchasing power vis a vis the currency debasement. In a deflationary environment, gold will appreciate in anticipation of central bank stimulus to escape recession and debt traps

What happens to personal loan ininflation as well as deflation..kindly answer

Hi, would you please explain how the presidential elections results could effect gold price in case of each president based on each’s economic and fiscal plan. ?

its a simple answer to the question. you simply ignore it, park your gold aside for a month. deflation never lasted long at all. ever in history. name one country that ever collapsed from deflation. Crickets crickets

the real issue may be that although there is no limit in the amount of money created there is NO LIMIT on how much of that money single people or institutions can accumulate. those few(the rich) will NOT SPEND that money. it gets spent on scarce assets and stocks. this is DEFLATIONARY for the main street economy.

Great explanatory video.... however you are half incorrect about gold in a deflationary period. As asset prices such as homes and equities tank, people would flood into gold. As you correctly stated to preserve their purchasing power. So gold would go down much less than other assets, or more likely significantly rise in a deflationary period, due to extreme demand.

@davezedude4271

2 жыл бұрын

This is Jeff Snyder analysis as well

@ryaniam22

Жыл бұрын

I think gold and silver will still drop but if they drop 20% while home prices and stocks drop 75% then you just had a huge swing in wealth ahead of anyone hold those other assets.

Watching the "How to Buy Gold" video from your Ultimate Guide. A lot of useful info here. Thx!

@SunandSnowGardening

3 жыл бұрын

A podcast would be great, BTW, because you can listen while you're doing other stuff or supposed to be sleeping.

@HeresyFinancial

3 жыл бұрын

Glad to hear it, thank you! I am planning on launching a podcast at some point in the future 👍🏼

You gotta watch Steven Van Metre about deflation. He has a good thesis. Apparently QE is deflationary

@erikkaareson6493

3 жыл бұрын

Absolutely he is really good. 🙂👍

@0mar9

3 жыл бұрын

And also listen to Lacy Hunt and Jeff Snider to learn how the system really works

@drx1xym154

3 жыл бұрын

I think there are 3 things that point to deflation - despite, "QE infinity". 1) way too much debt, many firms are less interested in accumulating more debt. Can this be inflated away? It is already more than the USA's GDP, by some measures. 2) COVID lock down - both decreases the amount people and companies want to borrow - also the amount banks want to lend. 3) COVID lock down part II -- accelerated the technological push for deflation - people are not traveling as much for work or vacation - some tech stocks will do very well - travel type stocks will not (well once the crazies are wiped out, financially).

Gold and Silver are insurance - also no third party risk, if it is your own possession. Also both could do better in terms of purchasing power - if/when manipulation ends (mostly for silver). So what happens IF the USD or new "digital" dollar becomes gold backed? Would that drive up prices like crazy? It could.

In deflation gold will go down nominally but less than other assets because it rivals the dollar as a safe haven. Something like, and what happened in March actually, is that the S&P dropped 30% or something while gold dropped only 15%. So you can actually buy more assets with your gold, the purchasing power has actually risen and not stayed the same.....however it has nominally dropped in value. It's a hedge for both deflation and inflation in this way. u can get rich holding gold....as rich as u can in the market. There are elongated periods of time when one vastly outperforms the other. Like look at the 70s....if you held gold vs US dollars or stocks you got rich. Or in the late 2000s to the peak in 2011 you got rich. There are other times you can just outperform too.

Looking bearish now

Coming back to this video as gold breaks out and the dollar seems to be showing signs of strength even if momentarily. Looks to be a shift into the dollar while gold is at all time highs.

so is NOW a good time to buy gold or are you saying it DOES NOT MATTER RIght Now

Deflation and US national debt don't mix...unfortunately.

JOE - Could you do a video on your opinions about the Crypto world? I have been studying Crypto for a long time now but far from a Pro, as much as I know I am Always interested in opinions from people like yourself. Do you own Crypto? If so what types? Like a lot of people do you consider Bitcoin (the Father of Crypto) the "Digital Gold"? Do you think Crypto has a bright or dim future? Has the Crypto Bubble already popped? I believe I have seen all your videos on Crypto, would an updated and more in depth video be possible? From my perspective there seems to be a lot of subtle talk and changes going on behind the scenes that a small percentage are paying attention to... Apologies for the long comment, ty for reading.... Your thoughts? Thx again...

@HeresyFinancial

3 жыл бұрын

I will do another video at some point. Have in the past, but need an update. Short answer: I like bitcoin, not crypto. It's an asymmetric bet. There is a small chance that bitcoin becomes money in the future. If it were money today, it would be $300k - $400k. If it does not become money, it is going to zero. There is no other use or function. In my opinion, it is worth "Stacking Sats" (dollar cost averaging) with very small % to take advantage of the current volatility and bet on the upside, however unlikely it is.

So in deflationary situation cash is way better than anything else.?

@11:22 deflation puts gold on sale

Inflation isn't coming until the FED goes from "lending powers" to "spending power". QE is NOT money printing (see St. Louis FED link below). We are about to have a massive deflationary event. The FED, through QE, creates reserves on behalf of the banks in exchange for debt. Member banks use their own liquidity to buy debt. That debt is then "sold" to the FED but instead of giving the "money" to the banks, they place it in reserves on behalf of the bank. Those reserves are NOT legal tender. They cannot be spent! Even when corporate bonds wind up on the FED's balance sheet, they still have to be serviced! It's not like the FED forgives the debt. So this idea that corporations or the government is getting money created out of thin air is ridiculous. Reserves are created out of thin air. Money is lent into existence. Even those credit facilities are loans using special purpose vehicles designed to bypass primary dealers. The FED does not have the power to spend directly into the economy. Powell mentioned this the other day. The FED can only create reserves to be lent against. If there is no lending, in excess of repayment, there is no money being created. Money is destroyed when loans are repaid. In a debt based economy, debt must expand beyond repayment for "growth" to occur. When we borrow, money is created in the economy, when the government borrows, they do so from existing dollars, thereby shrinking the amount of liquidity in the system. That is deflationary. QE is deflationary (see the link below from the St. Louis Fed). Bank lending standards are at ’08 levels despite what may hear in the news. //fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRTSCILM

Artificially controlled deflation & inflation may only have temp effects on suppression... may not entirely fall under traditional measurements. Perhaps diff discussion as GOLD & silver are connected to world currencies within their own controlled environments separate from western reserve banking system. But who really knows.

Joe is awesome and we need to clone him for our kids schools !

RE: 2:39 - In my view, gold did not drop 2% yesterday in real terms. If the dollar strengthens as much as gold weakens, that's fine with me as my buying power is preserved which is my entire motivation for investing in physical metals. In fact it's better because my tax liability is reduced as the dollar strengthens and the value of my assets (gold, stocks, real estate, etc) decrease.

The answer really depends on whether it's coming from an investor or a prepper.

One flaw with this logic is investors and traders buy low and sell high. If I sell (2) oz. Of gold today at 2k and the price drops to 1k tomorrow I re-buy (4) oz for the same money and ride it back up.. Why hold it on the way down if you are already holding appreciated assets?

Joi think we will have deflation for a year or a year and a half then inflation will Run up like we havent seen since the eighties. I think gold will be around a thousand an ounce and then with inflation you will see that gold can make money for you . What do you think?

Gold price is subject to the supply and demand for gold Same for wheat coffee and beans They largely are priced independently No?

There will be a massive deflation and the reaction to the deflation will the trigger the hyperinflation. The reaction to the dropping prices and the debt wrapped up in the system will cause a massive over reaction. That over reaction will make gold 🚀 to the 🌓. Along with silver.

@curtisdopson7463

2 жыл бұрын

interesting concept, but how would 'massive deflation' trigger hyp inflation? If prices went down 20% for assets, people would buy lots, and things may go up a bit...to sustain inflation, but how HYPER ?

The main engine driving inflation is population growth.

Interesting thou gold went up during the gfc

Watching this mid december, $1823

If deflation is so powerful, why not just hold cash?

Then if I think it’s going to be deflation I should sell my gold and with the cash I can buy more gold than I have now

In a deflationary setting, money/capital is not employed to serve the economy. Therefore, it is flowing in hard assets like gold. At least this is what I start to understand (check out Jeff Snyder)

Wait, so if I anticipate deflation, I should keep fiat money in my savings account?

@tredegar4163

2 жыл бұрын

Short answer yes, cash is the best asset to be in during heavy deflation. However in deflation remember the Fed will move heaven and earth to reverse it, so it depends on how much faith you put in deflation being able to overcome the Fed. Personally I believe a government is always capable of screwing up their country.

Your analogy is correct but it might take one or two generations to reach that equilibrium. I don't think anybody will see it that way. 10 or 20 years in our short life time is significant.

@yovanismaya1317

Жыл бұрын

28-34

Gold has always done well in a deflationary environment,due to money printing, 2008 house prices massive deflation, they always print money in that environment.Gold flew up in that period?

watching in 2022 gold crash we down to 1700 a oz

Gold will explode at start of deflationary cycle, as the price of stocks, price of property, price of treasuries, go down hard and people look for somewhere to hide, then much of that price rise at start will hold for much of the spiral. Great video, as always, many thanks

Gold and silver pullback should be short lived then to the moon

Are you involved in the creation of the new Quantum Financial System?

@stevenhill4122

3 жыл бұрын

😉😆😀😁

How do you save more than you earn ;)

@HeresyFinancial

3 жыл бұрын

Hahaha that's the question. It's a lot harder when cost of living goes up more than wages

I would disagree with you on this point. Historically, everyone owned and used gold as a monetary instrument. Today, everyone has fiat, very few have gold. If a hyperinflation or deflationary crisis hit, MANY would pile into gold and silver (and BTC). This would drive demand, gold prices would skyrocket. In the past, you would be correct but not in today's environment. Early buyers and hoarders of gold and silver will be richly rewarded. You saw a glimpse of this in the 1970's crisis. Not only will their buying power go up, but their gold would see a substantial net gain as the dollar unwinds.

If inflation is so craxy why are yields dropping and bonds are going up? Think about it they are sniffing out deflation in the next 6 months

Peter Schiff won't like you. 😙

Yeah, I hear you about deflation and that is the classic description, but... We've never had negative interest rates before.... the yield curve seems to no longer matter. According to Lynette Zang, the coming reset will force all of us into a digital currency where there is no CASH...no privacy. So, with all your credits (money) in a bank, all the government has to do is increase inflation to get people to spend, because they see the value of their credits going down in their account. So, I think they've figured out a way around deflation.....just sayin'

Technology is not deflation, you can't compare something that didn't exist before. If you built a car like they did in the 1950's, hand made no computers it would cast over 1/2 million. Yet the average joe could afford it. That's not the case today this is the true inflation.

The question is Joe! Do you still see the gold price target by election at $2,500.00, or have you changed your tune! Cheers!

@HeresyFinancial

3 жыл бұрын

Price target stands, but the date is likely too soon. End of year more likely

@bluefish225

3 жыл бұрын

Heresy Financial I can respect that

@bluefish225

3 жыл бұрын

Heresy Financial Same for Silver?

The problem you people think "the money printing" is real but it isn't. Fed liabilities are not legal tender and that's the key

Stock market capitalism demands inflation of profits. 😎

@drx1xym154

3 жыл бұрын

It is actually, private, central fractional reserve banks (The Fed, The ECB, The BoJ, etc...) that drive the inflation and free currency creation - causing the debt. And at some point, it becomes unsustainable.

if gold were $2000, then falls to $1000, wouldn't you be better holding cash?

Ok bought your gold thing presentation. Added some info for me. I have found SD bullion least expensive with excellent service for smaller buyers. An expert like Schiff should not be selling or recommending Gold certificates stored at the Perth mint which is UNALLOCATED. His funds charge a high front load...I thought those were extinct. Be careful who you endorse for the little guy.

@HeresyFinancial

3 жыл бұрын

I did not recommend or even allude to certificates at Perth Mint. I made a point to emphasize the importance of storage being allocated. And there are no loads on the class A shares that you can get at any discount broker.

@gma8763

3 жыл бұрын

@@HeresyFinancial Schiff does

Nope, that's the best thing if you if you have money saved.

@glennataylor

2 жыл бұрын

OK, sorry, I was misunderstanding the begging. Everything you said is spot on, so deflation benefits the lower class and inflation, or money printing, increases inflation which hurts them. It's just so idiotic.

Cash beats everything in your deflation scenario, yet you don't point that out?

Buy bitcoin avoid inflation

He sounds like he knows what he’s talking about, but

Wahhh?

ok guys. put your hands up on ayes , we see nothing . sleep. dreem. enjoy. he is kidding.

I don't believe deflation helps the poor because the poor are the ones investigating and making loans. Deflation helps the rich and inflation helps the rich unfortunately

@xxxxxxxxxx02

10 ай бұрын

Specially when the poor loose their job.