The current estimates of Covid-19 deaths using Excess Mortality place the true death toll between 12-22 million, much higher than the current 5.5 million official death toll. I've added links to all the references, as well as links to the Excess Mortality dashboards and source code repositories used to build them.

@mikebarker9187

2 жыл бұрын

and what are these deaths from? are you asserting that Covid from and Covid with and Covid virus and no other societal / governmental effects are the sole causes?

@ProfGregTuckerKellogg

2 жыл бұрын

@@mikebarker9187 In countries with careful tracking of causes of death (e.g., the US and UK), the vast maority of excess deaths have been from Covid. I'm not aware of any evidence to suggest it would be diferent elsewhere.

@sebastianbalbo1906

2 жыл бұрын

BULLSHIT epic bullshit

@MrEkzotic

2 жыл бұрын

@@ProfGregTuckerKellogg The "fhack-scenes" are responsible for the spike in deaths of people between the ages of 25 and 45.

@readhistory2023

2 жыл бұрын

I don't know a single person who died from CV. I know several that died after the shot

Did anyone put the obvious question why is it that the gap between official C-19 deaths and overall excess deaths doubled or even trippled since spring 2021 (after the vaccination campaign had been launched)?

@jacksteel6590

11 ай бұрын

I couldn't agree more with you. And that is the tip of the iceberg of things that just don't add-up regarding the "narrative". Zombies.

@jwilson2500

10 ай бұрын

This guy apparently thinks all excess mortality must of course be due to covid...

Very informative video. Its a shame so many people invest so much in downplaying the seriousness of covid, when in reality its even worse than the official statistics seem to show. Thanks for breaking it down and explaining it

Complex and fascinating. What beggars belief is that some people cannot correctly understand uk death certificates.

I wish more people can understand that, I’m sick of hearing”they just blame Covid” and over reporting!

@gottagowork

Жыл бұрын

I think most of us do. Under-reporting was a given and warned about in the beginning. We're just not very vocal about it compared to the you-know-who.

@Captain_Dirk

11 ай бұрын

Take your pick I'd say. You can either choose to believe that it was under reported from the get go and that this is now proven by the excess deaths numbers. Or you can choose to believe it was over-reported, over-reacted to and that all the mayhem that the lockdowns, vaccines, layoffs, etc... caused, are contributed to covid, which again leads to over-reporting on covid deaths. No problem in substantiating both beliefs.

I do have questions. 1. If age is the most significant predictor, would we not expect C19 death rates to be lower in countries where the population is mostly young? 2. With lockdowns and the the harm that it causes to poorer countries possibly lead to increased deaths from other causes. Malnutrition, decreased access to care due to lack of funds, and other issues? Delayed diagnosis and treatment? 3 Lock downs have also led to supply chain problems, medicine, supplies. Sadly that would affect poorer countries. We both know that we were going to get what we needed/wanted first. Vaccination is the best example. We are trying to vaccinate small children when a large part of the worlds most vulnerable never even had the option. Could this have led to Increased death? 4 Lockdowns also led delays in supply of fuel so that nations that rely largely on this, did not receive fuel in a timely fashion. I am sure there are many things I am not thinking of that could be added to the list. Could the inability to acquire basic necessities (water, power) have exacerbated this? It is obvious that we in developed nations were going get what we want, and the others would have to wait until we took care of ourselves first. I would bet that this played a large roll in high rates of excess mortality. I would love to hear your comments?

@ronocf8290

2 жыл бұрын

Excellent questions, I’d like to see the response

@jackiejones1673

2 жыл бұрын

@@ronocf8290 you'll not see it on this channel. this guy is blind.

@gottagowork

Жыл бұрын

"countries where the population is mostly young" Examples of such countries; comparable western, rich, developed countries of similar capabilities? The current life expectancy for Denmark in 2022 is 81.26 years - did well during Covid. Life expectancy in the UK is the average is 80.8 years - did poorly during Covid. Americans are expected to live 76.4 years, down from a peak of 78.8 years in 2019 - did worst in the developed world during Covid. The current life expectancy for Japan in 2023 is 85.03 years - did good in the developed world during Covid. Also on Japan: Japan has the highest old-age dependency ratio of all OECD countries. On youngest, I can only find highly under-developed countries. I wonder why. They are also most under-reported. I wonder why. Low reporting doesn't automatically mean they have the highest amounts of deaths. "lockdowns and the the harm that it causes to poorer countries possibly lead to increased deaths from other causes" Or more likely, they *have* to go back to work just in order to survive due no safety net, catch Covid, and die earlier because health care is not properly scaled and face severe consequences even earlier than wealthy countries.

Excess deaths are a very important number. Why do you assume they are all due to COVID? Have lockdowns not had an effect on people with mental health issues, which can be seen in the increase in things like opioid deaths? Another key piece of data is the age of people in the excess death category. How many years of life, based on actuarial tables were these people robbed of?

@jenniferhunter4074

2 жыл бұрын

Think of it this way. We can predict birthrates and deaths for a given population. This is why so many people wring their hands with greying populations such as Japan. Here's the problem. The predicted death rate number is substantially lower than what we are seeing in reality. Usually, the model is very accurate. It's like expecting the bill for a car repair to be 100 dollars but now, the mechanic sent you a bill and it's 10,000 dollars. What happened? Understand this, actuarial science is very very robust. This is how they figure out how much to charge you for your life insurance policy, what to charge you for car insurance, and even how much to insure a hand model's hands. (yes, they can figure out how much it would cost to insure a person who hand models things like lotion or jewelry for commercials. ) An actuary can calculate how much of a population will die from an opioid epidemic. In fact, they have this as just one variable when they are calculating death rates for a given population. So the question comes back to ... The actuary stated that given X poplation, we should see 100 deaths per 50,000 for 2019. Then, we look at the death certificates issued and the number is 1000. That's a significant difference. It's not 101 or 98. That's 10 times what was predicted. What happened? Remember, this thing has to be a global event because excess death is every where. Even if opioid deaths increased in Kentucky, USA, why are we seeing excess death in Scotland, UK or Utter Pradesh, India? Is opioid addiction occurring globally? What happened? I don't recall volcanos exploding or massive earthquakes or tsunamis or even food production diseases such as potato blight. What kind of thing could potentially impact numerous parts of the world that have varying standards of living, cultures, norms? the answer is simple... either aliens or covid19 or possible a god event. I know that aliens didn't come .. that we know of. Likewise, no rapture or god events have been publicized. However, we have had a lot of "covid19" news stories and personal stories from survivors or first hand accounts of medical staff. Even if one county in the US had a meth run or some kool-aid mass suicide, it doesn't impact the global death rates that we are seeing. That's why Covid19 is being blamed. It's the best explanation given the data. I mean, heart disease rates, obesity rates, birth rates.. all of these are modeled and measured routinely. We even have things such as maternal mortality rates or infant mortality rates. These things are already counted into the expected mortality rate. That's why people are looking so hard at that hard excess death rate. It's not a fuzzy number like "this many people said they had precisely 100 cans of diet soda in the last ten years". It's not like people come back from the dead. Death is a hard number. (We can also see this in other things. For example, Prof Greg mentioned cellphones. But funerary services will also show this increase. Purchases of goods will also show this (via a drop). Even if every government and every person had their mind wiped, the evidence of all these little interactions will reveal the crime. This is how we figured out how dangerous the black death was. None of us personally experienced it in our life times or our grandparents lifetimes. We just had writings and the curious case of graves.)

@jackiejones1673

2 жыл бұрын

because he is blind. my friend fell down the stairs and quick test was positive then 3 pcrs negative and he was counted as covid death.

[T]here is something “mysterious” going on in Africa that is puzzling scientists, said Wafaa El-Sadr, chair of global health at Columbia University. “Africa doesn’t have the vaccines and the resources to fight COVID-19 that they have in Europe and the U.S., but somehow they seem to be doing better,” she said…. Fewer than 6% of people in Africa are vaccinated. For months, the WHO has described Africa as “one of the least affected regions in the world” in its weekly pandemic reports.

@Marrow614

2 жыл бұрын

Young population 😵‍💫

@CuchulainAD

2 жыл бұрын

Shh the idiots here don't want to hear that ...

Thanks for another excellent video

Very informative video. Thank you for making this.

Interesting discussion. But, Michael Osterholm of CIDRAP reports that in the case of EBOLA, many of the excess deaths were actually because medical care was not available for non-EBOLA illnesses. He has stated that the number of EBOLA deaths was less than deaths caused by medical care being available. Early in this pandemic, it was reported that hospitalization was way down for stroke and heart attacks. Therefore I would suggest that one cannot always claim the excess deaths were COVID deaths.

@morgantaylor517

2 жыл бұрын

I'd also like to know their vaccination status. How do we know some were not from the vaccine? I'm sure they have that data but it's considered irrelevant which is absurd. We have a never before used experimental injection being implemented on the ENTIRE population during the times the excess deaths occurred. There are TWO rather than one new variable to consider.

Excellent video. I have shared a five minute snippet of this relating to India ( since this is a topic particularly close to my heart and relevant to my audience) on my social media channels ( TT, IG, FB , YT, Twitter) with full credits given in title and description . I hope this meets your approval . Thank you for all the effort you have put into this. Following you on twitter now 🤓

@ProfGregTuckerKellogg

2 жыл бұрын

On FB and twitter you can, I think, simply share with a starting time

@ProfGregTuckerKellogg

2 жыл бұрын

It's quite likely that KZread will flag it as a copyright violation

Another valuable insight. I hope you never tire of countering disinformation around COVID.

Appreciate this, thanks Prof.

Thanks. Really well explained.

Thankyou, some want to wish it away, but wishing doesn't cut it.

Thank you Greg, for taking the time to make sure a comprehensive video. I am often unsure which number I should trust. This is very helpful!

@ProfGregTuckerKellogg

2 жыл бұрын

Thanks, Karen!

Great video, even in the US I think the number is underreported- there are many people who’ve died in the field or we could not resuscitate in the ED where we did not list Covid as cause of death due to lack of objective data ( CT scan or PCR) even though we suspected it given the history of presenting illness

@marktn9851

2 жыл бұрын

300% increase in other death causes from cardiac, kidney n other related illnesses in both US n New Zealand in 2020 is not bcoz of vaccination simply bcoz there’s no funding for such data analysis, and hence, no evident.

Interestingly, the UK deaths within 28 days metric that was diverging quite markedly in January (calling its utility into question) has somewhat reconverged with deaths by death certificate. E.g. 10th Jan (the most recent available death cert figure was 278 for the 28 day metric and 225 for death cert. Still much wider than earlier in the pandemic but not totally off either.

Just clicked on this video after reading the title, and expecting you to reference the Nature Briefing article on this topic, from a week or two ago. It was called “The true death toll of COVID-19: millions more than official counts”, I think. Now I will check the description (and then watch the video), to see if I’m right.

@LeanAndMean44

2 жыл бұрын

I was right, it is Reference number 9.

@wyqtor

2 жыл бұрын

Bazillions more than the official counts... yea right. And he has the gall to accuse Dr. Campbell of disinformation.

Thanks, very informative. Would it be possible in the future to cover “base rate fallacy”? I’ve seen some good examples on Twtr.

@ProfGregTuckerKellogg

2 жыл бұрын

great idea

O yes ,if we add all the other deaths caused by the lack of preparation,lack of analysis , information,lack of medicine,bad previsión ,not enough personnel at hospital,And so much more it is true that it's been very deadly

Bom dia from Brazil. Thank you for this informative video. As always, clear and concise and unlike Dr. Campbell you didn't use word "profound " so he always does. One word you also didn't pronounce is "China" . Any reason?

@ProfGregTuckerKellogg

2 жыл бұрын

I think i mentioned that China doesn't provide all-cause mortality data. to the world mortality dataset. I suspect they track deaths quite carefully, but given their relative lack of transparency it's hard to estimate their true excess death toll.

@Lrover16

2 жыл бұрын

@@ProfGregTuckerKellogg my apologies if you did...I will nèed to view it again. Brazil is definitely not reporting the COVID-19 deaths accurately, btw. Only 0.3% sequencing for the omicron variant. Can't correlate that to excess deaths but it does show the likelyhood that death are higher.

@Lrover16

2 жыл бұрын

Ok I heard it. Sorry again.

Thanks 🙂

10:05 VIDEO STARTS With respect, Prof. Greg seems to "bury the lead" under 10 minutes of "footnotes." Thank you Prof. Greg for your patience and care in bringing us along this informative ride, but maybe (without implying the fix is in) intrigue the kids with a postcard of our destination at the outset ? B-)

does excess death similar to the term of collateral damage?

Mexico officially states 309k for COVID. Wonder what it really is.

@Marco-it2mr

2 жыл бұрын

Excess deaths in Mexico for the period March 30, 2020 to January 2nd, 2022 stands at over 613,000 according to the Economist. Official COVID deaths for that period are 295,000, so about a factor two difference. Notably, for Russia the difference is substantially worse: 1.1 million excess deaths, with some 300,000 official COVID deaths. Notably, India is not on their list, but estimates from others suggest a factor 5-7 difference between official COVID death toll and excess mortality...

Apart from the swipe about misinformation at the start 🙂, that was very clear and informative - thanks. The Indian paper in particular was actually quite moving to be honest, and in general I think you make it clear that the video's proposition - that these deaths are underreported to a very large extent globally - is now accepted generally. The hard part comes next: what does this mean for policy? Are you aware of any work going on to agree standards for reporting deaths? And if excess deaths can be agreed as the standard, a 'certified' methodology to measure it?

@ProfGregTuckerKellogg

2 жыл бұрын

Actuarial science is pretty mature for counting deaths in general, so it's really a matter of implementation. The 10 Indian states that the study used from the national civil registry had been recording deaths systematically for at least a certain time (I think it was 13 months) before the start of the pandemic. India is, as I understand it, moving to get the other states on board. Once there is adequate counting of deaths in general, then the methodologies for estimating excess deaths are good and getting better. But there's not a "certified" method. In fact, the ONS in the UK is going to count excess deaths in 2022 using an average of prior years that *includes* 2021!! I think this is a mistake, but that's their choice instead of extrapolating models from 2019 forward.

@laurencehogg6010

2 жыл бұрын

@@ProfGregTuckerKellogg Thanks for taking the time to reply in such detail. The lessons learned log from this pandemic will be a mile long, but for me this one - some standard, hopefully a global one if that's possible - would be close to the top of the list (along with a proper health economic view of the opportunity cost of lockdowns). I think the lack of this kind of standard has contributed to some countries pause in developing policy based on another country's recent experience.

Excellent resource. It would be great if the public had enough required math to get a sense why these heuristics work. 3Blue1Brown should do a prerequisite video for this!

@ProfGregTuckerKellogg

2 жыл бұрын

As an educator, I quite often make the mistake of assuming students have more depth in math and statistics than they do. Even when I don't make _that_ mistake, I often make the mistake of assuming that their mathematical reasoning skills are high, and that a non-technical explanation will make intuitive sense. I am frequently corrected by my students 😳

Still watching the excess deaths these days ????

@damiaanspatrick2050

Жыл бұрын

Yes and they are high. 🤔

Great video!

I think it would be helpful if you not only had the references by name and relevant information about the source in the description, but also the links (like in the first reference). Not because I don’t trust you, but surely someone will watch this video who doesn’t trust you, and it will easier for that person to fact-check you, if you follow my suggestion. If I hadn’t already read the very comprehensive nature article about this topic (your reference number 9), i would also fact-check you by looking at your references. But as the nature article has very similar conclusions to this video, I won’t do it this time.

@ProfGregTuckerKellogg

2 жыл бұрын

Done. I've also added links to the dashboards and code/data sources when available.

I know in rhe UK the excess death was 127000 compared to "deaths with covid" figure of 170000. Given the complexities of comorbidities a discrepancy is not surprising but I wonder if that is a typical of developed nations.

@alaindumas1824

2 жыл бұрын

This question was evaluated for the year 2020 by Islam, Shkolnikov, Acosta et al in the BMJ: "in both the US and the UK (that is, England, Wales, Northern Ireland, and Scotland combined) the estimated excess deaths were more than 30% higher than the reported number of covid-19 deaths, and they were more than 50% higher in some other countries, including Spain, Poland, Hungary, Greece, Lithuania, Slovakia, Estonia, and South Korea. However, New Zealand, Norway, Denmark, Israel, France, Germany, Belgium, and Switzerland had a higher number of reported covid-19 deaths than estimated excess deaths."

@williamverhoef4349

2 жыл бұрын

@@alaindumas1824 Also Australia, the reason being that the lock-downs prevented deaths from both COVID-19 and Influenza.

@gottagowork

Жыл бұрын

​@@alaindumas1824 Belgium accounted for expected under-counts by deliberately treating all suspected deaths as Covid deaths, and was afaik the only country to do so. New Zealand, Norway, and Denmark took it seriously and shut down completely initially in order to prepare with PPE, followed by a more targeted approach after. Keep in mind "expected deaths" include expected flu and deaths from other infectious diseases that was completely suppressed. New Zealand is the only one still in negative excess deaths. But eventually, those "scheduled" to die during Covid if we had normal times, will die soon enough from Covid or other infectious diseases when they come back.

How can you attribute all excess deaths to this one cause?

Excess death is a statistic that encapsulates all-cause mortality and I'm not sure what is driving your initial assumptions, and therefore confirmation bias, by attributing ALL CAUSE mortality to a single cause of death. Furthermore, to make this video without discussing how you control for other variables that are concurrently contributing to the aggregate data, something that epidemiologists that specialize in meta-analysis discuss emphatically, is completely disingenuous. Furthermore, the limitations of basing conclusions solely on historical data and projecting outward, or modeling (something also called naive forecasting), has noted limitations. Was it not the result of erroneous models that got us to shut down the world economy for naught two years ago? Finally, hypothesis testing much . . . why leave that out of your discussion? I think one of my favorite quotes about statistics, often attributed to Mark Twain, is, "There are lies, there are damn lies, and then there are statistics. Trust in the scientific method people and not leading youtube videos that are meant to direct you to a pre-determined conclusion (the antithesis of science).

@Marco-it2mr

2 жыл бұрын

"Was it not the result of erroneous models that got us to shut down the world economy for naught two years ago? " No. It was the result of quite GOOD models that told us what would happen if we didn't do anything...we then did a lot, and presto, disingenuous people acted as if that meant the models were erroneous.

@morgantaylor517

2 жыл бұрын

@@Marco-it2mr Hogwash!!! All our interventions didn't prevent 40 to 50% higher all cause mortality in the world's most developed nations, instead they faired worse. I'm not taking it on faith that they can't count in Africa. If people were dropping like flies it would have been seen and reported on. The fact is viruses CANNOT continue to replicate exponentially because they'd run out of people to kill and that's just not what happens.

@Marco-it2mr

2 жыл бұрын

@@morgantaylor517 Western countries fared 'worse', because they were much better at record keeping. Excess mortality statistics show that a lot of countries did really, really bad...and yet had few COVID deaths. At least Peru accepted that its official COVID death statistics were wrong, and that excess mortality was a much better indicator. Immediately brought them to the top of the mortality list, but they didn't 'care' - reality is reality. You also ignore that Africa has an on average much younger population. And finally, those exponential models accurately modelled the first phase of the spread. They were not extrapolated further than was possible.

@morgantaylor517

2 жыл бұрын

@@Marco-it2mr So what you're saying is whether a person lived in Peru, Sweden, Zambia, Vietnam or USA the outcomes are roughly all the SAME, all cause mortality increased 40 to 50%. It will be interesting to see in the next two years how Australia and New Zealand pan out because they closed their borders and being islands were able to keep Covid at bay. Now they're all vaxxed up, letting people in and cases are climbing. I'm hoping they keep very granular data and are transparent with it.

@Marco-it2mr

2 жыл бұрын

@@morgantaylor517 No, that's not what I am saying. The US did not see a similar increase in mortality as Peru, for example. We know from numerous countries that vaccinations have decreased the mortality. We can see the same with Australia and New Zealand, which do not see a major increase in all-cause mortality.

Thank you for another informative video. Without vaccinations and modern medical interventions such as in much of Africa the death toll will likely be frightening. The exact number of Covid deaths will likely never be known but as you clearly indicate excess mortality will be our best measure.

@Mario-forall

2 жыл бұрын

Death rate is *LIKELY* lower in Africa. Lower obesity and younger population, remember?

@LeanAndMean44

2 жыл бұрын

@@Mario-forall isn’t that only South Africa?

@Mario-forall

2 жыл бұрын

@@LeanAndMean44 Dr. John Campbell interviewed doctors from Uganda, Kenya and Ethiopia and they all report similar results.

@barryhamm3414

2 жыл бұрын

@@Mario-forall Without reliable data how do you know this?

@Mario-forall

2 жыл бұрын

@@barryhamm3414 which part are you questioning? The lower death rate or the younger, less obese population? Also what would you consider reliable data or sources?

This is clearly one of the most important aspects of the pandemic. I am struggling to understand something quite basic however (and I am sure it's my ignorance) that Prof Greg 's alludes to at 12.15 onwards. Basically how can we be sure excess deaths (however accurately modelled) are due to COVID infection as opposed to effects such as lack of treatment for other conditions due to lockdowns and restrictions etc. higher suicide rates due to stress etc.? I should make clear that I am not challenging the view that COVID was the primary driver for mortality and am strongly pro-vaccination and totally respect the expertise of specialists like Prof Greg . Rather I want to be clear about what the science tells us. These issues are somewhat subtle and complex.

@katzensindweich3505

2 жыл бұрын

You need the cause of death which unfortunately is only available with some delay and in often sloppy quality. You are right we need to be thorough and that is why we need specific studies to complement our knowledge.

@ProfGregTuckerKellogg

2 жыл бұрын

They are subtle issues and it's a good question. On its own, excess deaths don't tell us the cause of death, although it's helpful, I think, to know that Covid deaths and excess deaths track closely in countries that do tracking well. In those countries we can also track other causes of death. Suicides, for example, declined in the US in 2020. In many countries tracking of death in general is quite sporadic, and some countries, such as Russia, seem to have narrowed the definition of Covid deaths to give the appearance of beating it. Specific, meaningful comparisons between countries can help address the question. I'm going to do another video on an example of that comparing deaths in Sweden and Denmark, which are comparable in many ways, but had very different initial apporoaches to lockdown.

@katzensindweich3505

2 жыл бұрын

@@ProfGregTuckerKellogg I agree 100% and look forward to your talk!

@dorkangel1076

2 жыл бұрын

I did wonder this myself however I think the point at the end kind of covered that in that countries where covid death tracking was most accurate were those that most closely matched the excess death predictions whereas the poorer countries where it wasn't, were quite far out. This seems to be more about the global totals rather individual countries like say the UK or the US. In the UK, deaths were counted in 3 ways. 1) Deaths within 28 days of a positive test, 2) deaths where covid was listed as a cause on the death cert and 3) Excess deaths above the 5 year average. Each of those had people making excuses about the totals. For 1) it was whatabout people being hit by a bus or being shot then having their death recorded as a covid death. Realistically how many people is that going to be? That's a 28 day window out of a lifetime. For 3) it was whatabout all the deaths caused by lockdowns. This is where your questions seem to land. Globally you can't compare as different countries had vastly different measures in place at differing times. Did those poorer countries even have lockdowns? Some countries had their medical centres over-run with patients and some didn't? Going local with the UK again, it goes both ways. For some, lockdown sucked big time but for others it was a benefit with more time spent with families and much less time spent commuting. Did the stress increase, decrease or just move to other people? The preventative measures also worked against other things. EG. flu deaths were much lower as were deaths due to commuting. I'm pretty sure emergency surgeries went ahead so its more missed or delayed diagnosis. I wonder if that will show up more in excess deaths over the next few years rather than now? With 2) we seem to have the most accurate count and it shows that in the uk, method 1) actually under-counted deaths by 20k (over 10%) and it showed that covid killed quite a few people outside that 28 day window too. It also gives a pretty good indication that the excess deaths were covid related. The excuses here focused on the 17k who had no other conditions when covid killed them and implied that the rest don't really count as they were older and/or weren't in perfect health. Those are just my thoughts, but it is an interesting question and I would be interested to see what Prof Greg says if he responds.

@martifingers

2 жыл бұрын

@@dorkangel1076 Hi Dork Angel. Thanks for the thoughtful reply - Prof Greg has already responded too as you can see. I totally get your overall argument although surely method 1 would inevitably include some deaths that would have occurred anyway in those people at risk with serious co-morbidities for example. My intuition is that methods 2 and 3 would confirm that this was a relatively small percentage... do you agree?

excess death non covid realated are also up everywhere, mostly of course in the 65 to 80 year group in Europe and those in long term care. it could be different for the US because of a different demoghraphic health/BMI wise. inveatigations have started in various European countries if those deaths could have been realated to covid mandates in various forms, all the way from DO's, suicides, untreated cancers and heart disease all the way to vaccine injuries. ICU nurse, the Netherlands

I would love to know if Dr. John Campbell answered your questions?

@ProfGregTuckerKellogg

2 жыл бұрын

Nope. I doubt he will.

@Doeyhead

2 жыл бұрын

Dr. Campbell is a charlatan at this point. I can see that a lot of us used to watch him...when he realized how much money is to be made by peddling ivermectin he was a goner.

what happened to your newest video prof?

@ProfGregTuckerKellogg

2 жыл бұрын

I replaced it when the first comment pointed out some *great* information that I had missed. The new version is up, and includes that information.

@archiebunkers7881

2 жыл бұрын

@@ProfGregTuckerKellogg thank you

I wonder if the “misinformation” extends to the New Zealand study showing the total deaths from all causes going up and down, matching the vaccinations, with a short lag. This was observed over several cycles. Curiouser and curiouser…. And another thing to throw a spanner in the works - the nature of variation: are the excess deaths outside the 2 sigma or perhaps even 3 sigma limits?

@ProfGregTuckerKellogg

2 жыл бұрын

New Zealand has had very few excess deaths. Most other countries have experienced excess deaths that are very far outside expected varation. The bootstrapping methods used by several of the excess death estimates make this clear.

@Marco-it2mr

2 жыл бұрын

What study was that? When I compare all cause mortality with the vaccination statistics, there is no correlation whatsoever. Especially when you go back a little further, the by far strongest correlation is "winter = more deaths".

@williamverhoef4349

2 жыл бұрын

But NZ has not had excess deaths during the pandemic have. In fact, deaths been less than the average for the 5 years before the pandemic. This is because lockdowns prevented deaths from both COVID-19 and influenza. And they have very accurate death statistics. Deaths per million from COVID-19 for NZ: 11 (compared with USA: 2,801 and the UK: 2,322).

Imagine retired nurse Campbell trying to understand this...

@barryhamm3414

2 жыл бұрын

I've given up on John Campbell, he is far too often either cherry-picking his data to support rapidly reached erroneous conclusions or else is reaching conclusions that simply are unsupported.

@williamverhoef4349

2 жыл бұрын

@@barryhamm3414 Because of his deficient knowledge base, John Campbell is forced to rely on his gut to do his thinking rather than his brain.

@barryhamm3414

2 жыл бұрын

@Will R Thomson I believe that this is an anti-anti-science channel.

@williamverhoef4349

2 жыл бұрын

@Will R ThomsonNope. A correction of John Campbell numerous errors and misunderstandings channel ;)

@williamverhoef4349

2 жыл бұрын

@Will R Thomson "why no ripping into Dr been or Dr Kory, why just Dr Campbell?" Because they are obvious and long term problems, while John Campbell was previously a well-regarded science educator who only became a problem a year into the pandemic. And because he has ignored many attempts to educate him about his misunderstandings via private emails, including ejecting someone as a regular guest on his video because she dared to correct him. "I'm a fan of getting multiple sources" But you need to far more discriminating. I also use multiple sources, but I'm not going to follow someone like John Campbell who seems to know less than I do and understand even less. I'm not kidding. I look for reliable sources of information.

My personal observations of the disease does not marry with the general narrative. I keep getting told that statistically only a fraction of a percent of people die. Well I think the situation is vastly more complicated than that. Out of all the people I know who have had it, one got damaged lungs and spent time in ICU, one was left with debilitating asthma, two others had their first heart attacks within months of recovering (both under 40, one under 30), one woman recovered, then relapsed, then ended up spending two weeks in hospital, and is now infirm, several still dont have a sense of smell (which incidentally doubles your chances of dying statistically), and another mate still has a hacking cough and wheezes, and he caught it over a year ago. Out of everyone I know, there are only a few people who caught it, recovered, and we absolutely find afterwards. Now a lot of the side effects of this disease are things that reduce your overall health, diminish your life expectancy, and increase you risks of other diseases. I think this is the "new normal". I predict an ongoing issue with excess deaths because this disease kicks the crap out of the human body, and some people are catching it every 3 months.

@jwilson2500

10 ай бұрын

Yeah and it's sneaky, it waited until a year into the pandemic to really get hard to count

Prof Greg, JC is back at it with ivermectin, look at his latest upload titled "Ivermectin trial, Oxford University". I am sure he is leaving something out there too.

@williamverhoef4349

2 жыл бұрын

"[John Campbell] is back at it with ivermectin" I thought he'd put that one to rest after the exposure of his numerous errors and misunderstandings on KZread by Dr. Greg, Dr. Oliver, Dr. Wilson, and Dr. Yu.

@ProfGregTuckerKellogg

2 жыл бұрын

I just put out a video about it. Honestly that's flat out the laziest misinformation I've ever responded to

Blaming a virus for the outcomes more dependent on the response to the virus is not the same thing. There was a choice in behaviour or Governments and Individuals. Excess deaths are not because of the physiology change caused by live virus. Evidence has proven that the spike protein has a significant impact as does economic changes involving shutting businesses. One long term proof of that is that Economic downturns have always resulted in increased mortality.

@hervebuzot2547

9 ай бұрын

correct. It has to be multifactorial. Needs deep study. Also need to watch mRMNA tech impact

Is that deaths from COVID underestimated? Or deaths from lockdowns impacts?

3.2 million deaths in India still looks low compared to the US On a per capita basis. Perhaps India could provide some help to the US.

@alaindumas1824

2 жыл бұрын

India's numbers are worse than US ones if we take into account the age pyramid. Only 6% of Indians are 60 or older, as opposed to more than 23% in the US.

IT IS COMPLICATED ! 5M vs. 20M near end of 2021 so 0.1% of global pop./ year. Pop.(7.9B) growth rate currently declining through 1%/ year. EVERY death is tragic when near&dear, but most covid kills are a small fraction of a lifetime. Defining the opportunity costs of the pandemic response seems impossible, but so too what the toll could have been if society had not reacted at all (just let it "burn through"). Some experts say we've been VERY LUCKY this go around and hopefully humanity can learn some healthy lessons before the planet's immune system takes us on again ! B-)

What a long way of saying very little. All he does is to assume all excess deaths are due to covid infection. This is quite an assumption, given the radical changes introduced along with the pandemic.

@jwilson2500

10 ай бұрын

Yeah! That was my point also. That is pretty shoddy science...unless that assumption is backed up somewhere. Did he cite something? You've got an issue with the timing to explain, why one year "free"? What about lockdown effects, those may have taken time to manifest, how do you rule those out? Etc

The excess deaths all over the world.

People are all up in here like this is controversial. It’s been long said that a lot of the world was under testing and counting. This was trumps argument when he was criticized for doing worse than other countries. It was probably true then as it is now.

Vaccines???

Models and estimates.

Whatever diff trackers used for every country the bottom line is more daily covid deaths with high percentage occurs everyday even when large populations were fully vaccinated.

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Three of the most significant events in the last two years are COVID, mass vaccinations, and the massive economic shutdowns (including suspension of hospital preventative care). To ignore the latter two as potential causes of excess deaths is completely unrealistic. It is also well known that COVID deaths have an average of four comorbidities, and that many deaths in the US over-count COVID due to conflating deaths with COVID with deaths caused by COVID. Your analysis is very much lacking nuance.

@ProfGregTuckerKellogg

2 жыл бұрын

Over half of American adults have at least one co-morbidity, and yet live long and productive lives. It's important to understand co-morbidities, for sure. But the deaths of people who died from Covid with co-morbidities are still deaths from Covid. They shouldn't be counted differently. When you write that it is well known "that many deaths in the US over-count COVID due to conflating deaths with COVID with deaths caused by COVID", you are basically making it up. I would say that your argument is "lacking nuance", but it's also lacking basic decency.

@wyqtor

2 жыл бұрын

And the fact that the average age of people dying from COVID is actually HIGHER than the life expectancy (at least in the UK).

@Dragonslairminis

2 жыл бұрын

@@wyqtor you realise that the reason why life expectancy is so low is because of infant deaths right? Your life expectancy at 0 is lower than your life expectancy at 60 right?

@MrEkzotic

2 жыл бұрын

@@ProfGregTuckerKellogg The fact that the CDC and the FDA are fighting tooth and nail against releasing data on "fhack-scene" effectiveness, is telling. Is mass "fhack-cination" a contributing factor in the excess deaths of younger people? It's possible. Take a look at the death rates of those aged 25 to 45 in Switzerland and Iceland; compare those with the rates in US and Canada.

@gottagowork

Жыл бұрын

"mass vaccinations" We had mass vaccinations here for sure. But no mandates. Not even for mask wearing except on public transport during the worst of it. Most just chose to wear a mask anyway. With a responsible population who couldn't care less about Qanon nonsense and idiotic party politics (do you have any idea how ridiculously insane US "politics" looks to the rest of the world right now?), we kept our excess deaths at a negative. "massive economic shutdowns" Here? Not really. Shutdowns lasted two months before we started to soften restrictions. Obviously certain well know avenues of spread would be kept shut or restricted/limited use. So yeah, a few select sectors got hit hard. Others, not so much. GDP not impacted too much from the pandemic shutdown itself, some unfortunate side effects have hurt more. I'm also in a very wealthy country and I'm fully aware our luxury of having a good socioeconomic security net doesn't apply everywhere. "suspension of hospital preventative care" Not here. People took it serious and did their due diligence wrt following the guidelines on protection and social distancing and so on. So there was very little spread. So that shutdown only lasted two months for health care to acquire PPE (stockpiling for the next one could be an idea). When restrictions loosened up, hospitals got busy for sure, but afaik there was no need for ICU conversions or shutting down parts of health care just to cope. Meanwhile, in Florida - "let's throw Covid parties to see how many we can infect, that'll show the fake news for sure" - boom! Covid explosion. And that was while the r0 was only around 2.5 and should have been fully manageable. And from then on, it just got worse and worse and worse. And *that* is the reason suspension of hospital preventative care took place. Not because of lockdowns. Because stupid decisions caused too much stress on the system. You got your freedom nonsense (we're more free here btw), and now you complain about the result? "many deaths in the US over-count COVID" After this video, this silliness again? IHME report October 15, 2021 (title: "Estimation of total and excess mortality due to COVID-19") indicates several US states in the 1.25-2.00 range, most in the 1.00-1.10 and 1.10-1.25 range, and only a select few in the 1.00 spot (accurate). And that's on *under* reporting. But it has improved since then. Historically, this under reporting always happen, was expected, was warned about in advance, and afaik only Belgium tried to actively counter it by assigning all suspect deaths as Covid deaths rather than some confirmation required. Peru did an adjustment to reporting system too, but for other reasons. The document is only an estimate and may not reflect reality, but using the "deliberate overcount" at this point is beyond silly. Regardless of what you think, Arizona is at +32.7% cumulative all-cause excess mortality ranking in percent (age-adjusted, US Std. Pop 2000). Source: usmortality. Using worldometers, import data to a spreadsheet from US so you get the states and combine it with an import for the world. Now sort by Deaths/1M Pop. Not good, eh?

Thanks for the video. In general, it's helpful to look at various models and theorize about the true death toll surrounding covid and our reaction to covid. For the latter, you give a bit of an out to arguing against the strong bias that dominates the rest of the video. That's a clickbaity thumbnail. Just throwing a number range in there that you cannot support in the actual video. Cannot help but feel that you are capitalizing on the fear with tactics like this. I would rather not see that kind of thing and it's especially strange when compared to your rival Campbell. Because he does not use clickbait thumbnails. You could argue that he doesn't have to, because he already got a large subscriber base. Using a bunch of different models and always picking the one that supports your bias. Or just extrapolating from other countries...? I cannot imagine that works. We were told we cannot even predict the outcome of the same covid variant between one country and the next. Which, of course, turned out to be nonsense. Omicron is completely within the expectation that was set in early December of last year. Russia does not have a large population, compared to how big it is. You didn't claim that the population density is average, but you left it as an open question and if someone doesn't know and doesn't check they might easily feel that your made-up number from the thumbnail can be largely attributed to Russia. Not so sure that better quality in tracking official covid deaths almost perfectly accounts for excess deaths. Aside from you giving no examples where this is the case, assuming that it is true, there are still factors that can influence this to turn out very differently in other places. With lockdowns, some all-cause deaths were avoided and others took their place. Without lockdowns, this can go either way, based on other conditions. Overall, in the general public, there is not enough discussion on how our reaction to covid will cause long-term damage that is not a direct cause of the disease itself. We focus on the short-term effects, which are deaths, most visible and countable. I know it sounds harsh, but deaths are not the deciding factor. Our future is more important. The future of the human race is with future generations, not the current ones. We need to find out how to separate the cost of covid and the cost of our reaction to it or we are bound to make the same mistakes. Conflating those numbers, again. Creating more fear through higher numbers. Placing more trust on short-term solutions. It will never end.

@ProfGregTuckerKellogg

2 жыл бұрын

The numbers in the thumbnail correspond directly to the first estimates in the first figure in the video, which is from reference 9: Adam D. The pandemic’s true death toll: millions more than official counts. Nature. 2022;601(7893):312-315. doi:10.1038/d41586-022-00104-8. Those numbers are chosen because they are the two models that provide estimates for countries not participating in the World Mortality dataset. You write "Not so sure that better quality in tracking official covid deaths almost perfectly accounts for excess deaths.". That is covered in extensive detail in Figure 4 of Reference 1 Karlinsky A, Kobak D. Tracking excess mortality across countries during the COVID-19 pandemic with the World Mortality Dataset. Elife. 2021;10:e69336. You can find the link in the description. The video was long enough, so I left out the figure for brevity.

@beachdancer

2 жыл бұрын

"Freedom of information revelation" "Miracle in Japan" I classify those as Click-bait titles

@Brax1982

2 жыл бұрын

@@beachdancer I did not say "titles", I said "thumbnails". Besides, it no longer says "Miracle in Japan". But I agree, Campbell has strong IVM bias. Still, I consider that theoretical death numbers are more of a questionable clickbait, especially with that gesture next to it. There may be a source, but it is only one of many. Just because one paper says something it doesn't mean that's reality.

@ProfGregTuckerKellogg

2 жыл бұрын

@@Brax1982 All estimates of excess deaths agree that the true death toll is far higher than the official death toll. There is of course a wide range of estimates, but the low end is about 2.5 times higher than the offiical estimate. I kind of agree with you about the gesture. I wanted to have my face in the thumbnail, because it's a story about humanity. I tried a bunch of different ones. Every shot with me looking at the camera looked wrong: either happy, or judgmental, or just _wrong_ in some other way. I think a viewer unfamiliar with excess deaths (that's the viewer this video is for) should be startled, even shocked, by the realisation that deaths have been so vastly underreported. So I ended up choosing a photo that doesn't have me looking at the camera and that expresses some level of negative realisation. I'm not 100% comfortable with it, but more comfortable with it than any of the alternatives I was able to come up with.

@Brax1982

2 жыл бұрын

​@@ProfGregTuckerKellogg Thank you for the response. This is all very interesting, but there are a lot of factors. Would have to read up on how this all is supposed to work. It just seems like most of it will end up to be incomplete and inexact, more based on estimates than anything else. Since it won't change how I view all of this, in general...probably not worth it. That said, I am particularly not sure what to make of The Economist. That model seems wonky to me. The World Mortality Data Set, which it is partially built on, already raises questions. In Germany, the most dangerous thing we faced in all of 2020 was apparently a heat wave. I didn't know about that. I guess this was also affected by lockdown prior and than too much exposure all at once. And, of course, it was regional. And I was very busy that year. I did not check on covid news very much, having the luxury of remote office. I was recently looking at similar graphs for Russia, but don't remember where from. There, the gray line seemed to be all the way at the bottom pretty much aka they probably didn't report any deaths, it seemed to me. But here - in some of that data, not sure it was The Economist - there is a genuine curve. I wonder if that is the same graph and it was curve generated through an algorithm or if it was different data. I guess we might have to wait another half a year for them to update the models. Because these only go to around mid-June 2021 aka almost no Delta. Which means...this does not even include Delta? These figures are going to get worse?

Bollox

A view endorsed by Dr. Campbell on Utube.

That was great, until the last few seconds, which bordered on Marxist rhetoric. Edit: To clarify that, many, as I, would disagree that there is inequity involved here. Many of the countries you regard as "victims of equity" have enormous natural resources, making them, at least, potentially very wealthy countries. Many of them have chosen NOT to develop those resources with the help of the developed nations. I object to arbitrarily throwing billions (if not more) dollars of overworked, underpaid, tax payers hard earned. But mostly, by making those statements, you run the risk of having a narrative, just like Campbell, more naively altruistic for sure, but a narrative none-the-less, which is always a dead set indicator that the presentation has been designed to draw a picture supporting that narrative. The only true conclusion to this presentation should be that countries like South Africa are grossly under reporting the effects of covid, and that those pointing to South Africa (and India, Japan, etc.) as evidence that omicron is mild, are way off the mark.

@joefrancis759

2 жыл бұрын

if you don't like the 'equity' framing, consider whether a pandemic running rampant someplace isn't equal to (or even far greater) than the threat of Daesh or al Quaeda, then decide how you feel about overworked, underpayed [sic], tax payers funding overseas protection of 'US interests' vis-a-vis COVID.

@MrEkzotic

2 жыл бұрын

I agree 100%. Basically, their narrative is, "it's the white man's fault."

@gottagowork

Жыл бұрын

"Marxist rhetoric." Lolwut? Vietnam is communist "dictatorship" (there are some nuances to this you probably wouldn't understand, but still), well into the "marxist rhetoric". They have a well established socialist economy, have handled Covid exceptionally well (more strict and longer lasting lockdowns, but with groceries delivered on the door when you couldn't leave house), have very good workers rights and unions, and a fast growing economy despite being bombed to the stone age by you-know-who. Sure, they have issues with corruption. But hey, at least they didn't legalize political corruption like you-know-who - the only country to do so. Being largely socialist doesn't mean capitalism doesn't exist at all, it means they have to follow certain regulations and that working class still owns the means of production. Or at the very least, there is a sense of democracy at the workplace. And they did so without selling their soul to exploitative capitalist countries. "overworked, underpaid, tax payers hard earned." US billionaires are not overworked, underpaid, or even pay taxes. Maybe the US could work on that?

This is horrible misinformation

10 minutes in and yet not one actual excess death actual statistic for genuine nations. If you were paid for this by the word you would easily be a millionaire. How about getting to the point. What actually are the excess deaths period?

@Tufrmone

2 жыл бұрын

16 minutes and still no idea what the excess deaths in UK - US - Europe are. What are the actual numbers?

@ProfGregTuckerKellogg

2 жыл бұрын

As i mentioned, the excess deaths in the UK and the US are pretty much as reported by the UK and the US. In the UK, the lower end of the estimate today is about 112K. The upper end is about 137K.

@damiaanspatrick2050

Жыл бұрын

What about excess deaths of the last months?

@gottagowork

Жыл бұрын

@@damiaanspatrick2050 What about excess deaths post Spanish flu pandemic?