At this moment, things appear to be odd. Inflation is reducing the value of the US dollar, but it is strengthening in comparison to other currencies and commodities like real estate and gold. People are switching to the dollar because they believe it is safer. I worry that the rising cost of living may cause the value of my retirement savings to decline. We could put our cash anywhere else.

@JoeGerald213

Күн бұрын

Having a mentor is my personal recommendation. It seems like a good bet if you have limited market knowledge, but I'm not sure where you'll find an experienced one.

@LuizRubico-w5n

Күн бұрын

I concur. In light of individual experience working with a financial adviser, I presently have $1m in a very much enhanced portfolio that has encountered dramatic development. It's not just a matter of having money to invest in stocks. you also need to be knowledgeable, persistent, and have strong hands to support your investment

@HardyThomasD.

Күн бұрын

Please who's this advisor that guides you?

@LuizRubico-w5n

Күн бұрын

Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've been stuck with *KAREN* *MARIE* *GENDRON* for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive.

@HardyThomasD.

Күн бұрын

Thanks for this. I just googled her name and found her webpage. I'm really impressed with her credentials and I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get.

I recently sold my condo for $400k and i want to invest the money in the stock market. However, it appears the market is at an all-time high. Should I invest elsewhere or wait for a market correction?

@PapiChulo-t1s

4 сағат бұрын

The stock market is risky But staying on the sidelines is riskier. Missing the next bull run will be far more costly to your long-term wealth than getting in at the "right price". Consult a financial advisor if you're unsure how to proceed.

@SlowrideHome91

4 сағат бұрын

You're right, I and a few Neighbours in Bel-Air Area work with an advisor who prefers we DCA across other prospective sectors. Instead of a lump sum purchase, Following this, my portfolio grew 37% in the last quarter

@JIANHENGLUG

4 сағат бұрын

Mind if I look up your advisr please? I've worked in real estate for over 25 years and have neglected a major stock portfolio. This served me well when I was flipping and renting houses, however I need a different plan now

@SlowrideHome91

4 сағат бұрын

I've stuck with the popularly ‘’Jennifer Leigh Hickman” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look her up.

@JIANHENGLUG

4 сағат бұрын

thank you for putting this out, it has rekindled the fire to my goal... was able to spot Jennifer after inputting her full name on the web, she seems highly professional with over a decades of experience.

I was advised to diversify my portfolio among several assets such as stocks and bonds since this can protect my inherited portfolio of about $2.5m. I’m used to just buying and holding assets which doesn’t seem applicable to the current rollercoaster market plus inflation is catching up with my portfolio. I’m really worried about survival after retirement.

@berniceburgos-

4 күн бұрын

True, I mostly just buy and hold stocks, but my portfolio has been mostly in the red for quite awhile now. Unfortunately to be able to make good gains, you’ll need to be consistent and restructure your portfolio frequently.

@tatianastarcic

4 күн бұрын

In my opinion, it was much easier investing back in the 60s but it’s a lot trickier now, those making consistent profit in these times are professionals reason I’ve been using an advisor for the past 5 years to consistently build my portfolio in preparations for retirement.

@Michaelparker12

4 күн бұрын

My partner’s been considering going the same route, could you share more info please on the advisor that guides you?

@tatianastarcic

4 күн бұрын

Well, there are a few out there who know what they are doing. I tried a few in the past years, but I’ve been with Melissa Terri Swayne for the last five years or so, and her returns have been pretty much amazing.

@BridgetMiller-

4 күн бұрын

I greatly appreciate it. I'm fortunate to have come upon your message because investing greatly fascinates me. I'll look Melissa up and send her a message. You've truly motivated me. God's blessings on you.

Take away from this video: nobody can predict the future. One thing I feel sure of is this “study” will not age well.

@dominic8218

5 күн бұрын

Absolutely spot on!

@PB4Y2

5 күн бұрын

My question: How accurate have Vanguard's (or anyone else's) market predictions been in the past. I'll bet, not very good.

@silentnot4812

5 күн бұрын

@@PB4Y2I remember Vanguard/Bogle saying we would have slow growth over the next decade back in 2015 or earlier. That was totally wrong.

@dantheman6607

4 күн бұрын

Maybe only time can tell but I can see this happening

@peteturner8493

4 күн бұрын

Yes can only agree with you, would add most experts get it wrong, no such thing as a free lunch when trading and the stock market takes no prisoners!

Go back to 2014 and check what their projections were for this last decade. Those guys are constantly wrong. Zero to two percent is silly. The country has lots of room to grow and it’s going to grow at a much higher rate than that over next ten years

@tdgdbs1

4 күн бұрын

Visit any university's engineering department, you won't see many US born and raised students. You can't grow without grey matter, so sad the US born and raised kids are partying at the liberal arts departments.

@warumnicht8222

2 күн бұрын

@@tdgdbs1 as long as these non-US born an raised kids stay in the USA after completing their degrees, I see no problem.

The stock market is a way to hedge against inflation. Most notably amidst recession, investors need to understand where and how to allocate funds to hedge against inflation and still make profits.

@Elkemartin213

2 күн бұрын

in my opinion, the impact of the rise or fall of the U.S. dollar on investments is multi-faceted but learning how to grow your money has never been easier than now that you can explore and experience a truly diverse marketplace passively by using a well-performing portfolio-advisor.

@Greghilton3

2 күн бұрын

I agree Such considerations can certainly have a role when I think about whether I ought to buy into a share. But I never purchase purely on that basis, i always have to seek the advice of my financial planner who has helped me gain $985k in a well-diversified portfolio that has experienced exponential growth

Vanguard gets to pretend they are bringing some logic and reasoning to their position. People actually get paid for that? Nobody can predict the future. How many times have we heard over the years that future returns were pulled forward and so future returns would be low. It’s laughable

@darrenhere5856

4 күн бұрын

so true.... "experts"... what would we do without them....

@Dave-sw2dm

4 күн бұрын

Could they be trying to persuade investors into the areas they are in which would help their portfolios?

@Yt-user65000

3 күн бұрын

They’re not fortune tellers bro, they’re economists. Projections about financial conditions are not black magic dude. Maybe try to understand the reasons for the outlook & use it with your other market insights to make reasonable returns.

@michaelt2974

3 күн бұрын

Agree. But it’s just that nobody is ever held accountable for bad calls years later. It just seems like a younger person with a decade or more to go before retirement would be better off just investing as much as possible in SPY and QQQ and tune out market noise. Otherwise you could get bogged down by all the “market analysis” possibly leading to too much trading or other mistakes

“They’re saying g the economy will either be better, or it will be worse” So helpful

@morebaloney1539

4 күн бұрын

Net inflation

@vincentyeo88

2 күн бұрын

They didn't have a big crystal ball to be seen as believable. 😔🤣

Biggest lesson i learnt in 2024 in the stock market is that nobody knows what is going to happen next, so practice some humility and follow a strategy with a long term edge.

@johnlennon232

10 сағат бұрын

Nobody knows anything; You need to create your own process, manage risk, and stick to the plan, through thick or thin, While also continuously learning from mistakes and improving.

@williamyejun8508

10 сағат бұрын

Uncertainty... it took me 5 years to stop trying to predict what bout to happen in market based on charts studying, cause you never know. not having a mentor cost me 5 years of pain I learn to go we’re the market is wanting to go and keep it simple with discipline.

@checkforme234

10 сағат бұрын

Could you kindly elaborate on the advisor's background and qualifications?

@williamyejun8508

10 сағат бұрын

Just research the name Rachel Sarah Parrish . You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.

@checkforme234

10 сағат бұрын

I searched for her name on the internet, found her page, and reached out via email to schedule a conversation. Thank you.

When was the last time vanguard made a market prediction? How is their track record.

So it might go up and it might go down. Nobody knows is the truth. 🙈

@parasitius

4 күн бұрын

I think you're totally overlooking the value in this by trying to cheaply/lazily summarize the "future". Imagine you look at these factors carefully and observe in the coming months and years that ONE of the scenarios is, to the best of your judgement, actually beginning to play out..... hence you can invest accordingly.

@dominic8218

4 күн бұрын

@@parasitius you obviously still believe in Santa. 🎅🏼. 🤞🏼

time in the market and diversification trumps market performance. Vanguard is always clear about this point.

One of the most dangerous thinking or saying in financial history is “This time is different!” Vanguard when Jack Bogle was in charge ascribed to the opposite thinking, “Stay the course!” Today’s Vanguard has charted a different course.

@Moving.To.Charleston

4 күн бұрын

Interesting, I feel like we don't really have another choice but to "stay the course"...

@kevinderrick8895

4 күн бұрын

​@@Moving.To.Charleston- you do have another choice. Protect yourself from the most bubbled up market since 1929. You can still get 5% in short t bills and money market funds. The market today is like a casino. You might make 10x your money or you might lose it.

@Moving.To.Charleston

4 күн бұрын

@@kevinderrick8895 Hey Kevin, yes the 5% accounts are decent but it doesn't increase the value of my assets and still looses it's purchasing power. For example, investing in Google even in this inflated price, it will eventually increase more than the inflation rate. It is still better a performance of 5% return that is currently offered in high yield savings acct/t-bills/etc.

@don951

4 күн бұрын

@@kevinderrick8895 You don't lose it unless you sell. The stock market ALWAYS goes up over time.

@tombkk1322

4 күн бұрын

@@kevinderrick8895How long can we get 5% in these things?

Every single day, new bear content. Every single day, my portfolio is going up. I've been watching bear content for a year. Glad I never acted on it but rather I listened to my FA Abby Joseph Cohen or I would have missed out on huge, enormous gains. In Chinese, the word CRISIS is written using two different characters put together: one that means 'Danger' and one that means 'Opportunity'.

@MeckesGladden

4 күн бұрын

I know this FA, Abby Joseph Cohen Services but only by her reputation of being a former employee at Goldman Sachs; even though she's now involved in managing portfolios and providing investmnt guidance to clients. I have been trying to get in contact since I watched her interview on WSJ last month

@MeckesGladden

4 күн бұрын

How can i reach her, if you don't mind me asking?

@CartmellBuri

4 күн бұрын

Abby Joseph Cohen hooked me up with a late-stage fund that got me in on private shares of some hot companies before they hit the market or blew up. Those investments totally paid off when the companies went public and their stocks shot up. Now, I’m stoked because I’m heading into retirement with almost a million bucks in my portfolio.

@CartmellBuri

4 күн бұрын

I hope she gets more of the recognition she deserves.

@BruceWoolems

4 күн бұрын

​@@MeckesGladden Well her name is 'ABBY JOSEPH COHEN SERVICES'. Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.

Thanks Azul 📈 07:51 Vanguard predicts a 30-40% chance of negative impact on the stock market due to demographic changes, but also sees a 45-55% chance of GDP growth greater than 2.3%.

Fewer workers paying into social security. Definitely not a good thing.

@DMUSA536

4 күн бұрын

Not to mention past Presidents “borrowing” from it

The main focus for markets now is Nvidia, which has powered a large chunk of the S&P 500’s recent earnings. Nvidia’s stock, up more than 90% this year, rose 2.5% in New York on Monday, sending the Nasdaq 100 index to another record high. I'm still looking for companies to make additions to my $350K portfolio, to boost performance. Here for ideas...

@ritalorrigan

3 күн бұрын

I think the next big thing will be A.I. For enduring growth akin to META, it's vital to avoid impulsive decisions driven by short-term fluctuations. Prioritize patience and a long-term perspective most importantly consider financial advisory for informed buying and selling decisions.

@KevinClarke9

3 күн бұрын

A lot of folks downplay the role of advlsors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to $850K

@ScottArmstrong12

3 күн бұрын

This is definitely considerable! think you could suggest any professional/advisors i can get on the phone with? i'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation

@KevinClarke9

3 күн бұрын

Carol Vivian Constable is the licensed advisor I use. Just search the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.

@ScottArmstrong12

3 күн бұрын

I searched for her name on the internet, found her page, and reached out via email to schedule a conversation. Thank you.

The change of backgrounds is a good professional look !

I am 55, and my entire life I have been hearing the next decade won't be great. It's always fine. I have always averaged more than 10% every decade even with huge crashes. It comes way down and then goes way, way, way up.

Nobody knows nothing. Know your risk tolerance. Set your asset allocation. Rebalance.

Vanguard has been saying the same thing for 5 years. They still think bonds and international should be a big part of a portfolio. The culture at Vanguard is so conservative. The reps there say that I should be happy with a 6% gain a year. Went over to Fidelity and I am getting 20% a year

@crosslink1493

4 күн бұрын

I've had some Vangaurd funds for years and they've done well (I do the buying/selling myself), but I know what you mean by them pushing conservative investing. If I wanted that I could just go into my local Chase bank branch that has a JP Morgan Wealth Management office and get a conservative investment portfolio (most banks with investment divisions push quite conservative investments).

@randallschroederrandy2303

4 күн бұрын

More money has been lost reaching for yield than at the end of a gun

@jjred233

4 күн бұрын

I am watching this video for entertainment. I not sure why people read investment advise or ask advice from a brokerage business. Its a business that pushes investments options. I don't get it. I invest in Vanguard but never look at the advice. I got over 20% return a year in Vanguard.

Money printing will not stop. This will affect dollar value and inflation. The next 10 years might be rough. Either Democrats or Republicans. A weaker dollar = a better stock market and a better economy.

@don951

4 күн бұрын

They have stopped the printing press, and nobody seemed to like it. The Fed has been tightening liquidity for awhile, yet everyone still complains. People will just always complain. And, rarely know enough to make an informed opinion.

Nice background and lighting. Videos becoming more and more professional 🎉

@Omikoshi78

4 күн бұрын

This the Azul after dark theme 😂

Great video Azul. I love your experience and perspective on opinions coming for international companies like Vanguard. I think you are spot on.

do you have a link to share for the vanguard forecast that you're basing this off of?

Its interesting to compare what they said 10 years ago and compare - they where pessimistic too - and we had a huge growth on average over the last decade

Fear, uncertainty and doubt - ain't nothing changed

It’s like my advisor always says..You will certainly make money, or not.. Advisors are all the same..They are like weather forecasters..They only know for sure, yesterday’s weather..

Why would Vanguard announce this doom and gloom prediction?! Are they trying to make this happen?

@7:50 "Either gonna do better or its gonna do worse" WOW! This is some great insight here!

To clarify, Vanguard is forecasting that returns in the relative near future will be less than historical returns due to the market out performing the past decade. By definition, this is reversion to the mean and is simply a forecast. Right or wrong, I believe it's useful to guide or at least inform current investment decisions.

Great backdrop Azul and good information as always… now let’s take a walk!

Fewer workers mean wages will have to go up in many sectors, which will drive profits down and negatively effect stock returns. That’s my prediction. I think smaller companies will do better in this period as being nimble will be a larger advantage than it used to be. I also think that companies will start to trim fat off in managerial positions. We’ve seen the tech companies start and I think it’s the start of a longer term trend where higher interest rates mean companies have to be leaner and many redundant and non productive positions will be phased out. This might be enough to keep returns within historical trends.

Thanks, does Vanguard consider this return includes the dividend in the S&P?

Nice job Azul. Like the digs too.

Why would the number economy in the world underperform the rest of the world. Vanguard has been talking down the performance of domestic stocks and talking up international stocks for at least twenty years.

@tombkk1322

4 күн бұрын

Exactly

I feel these next four years we will see positive growth in US stocks

@ktech2762

5 күн бұрын

More immigrants are eager to come in and try the American dream. Have no fear.

I call horse-hockey on those predictions. In fact, I am betting 100% in the other direction. Never bet against the American economy.

What did they say in their report 10 years ago?

I think they're undervaluing other technical breakthroughs which will likely come in addition to AI, in the areas of computing, energy, medicine, materials, space.

How will this affect the metals market?

Most important look for companies funamentally sound, good management and offering product or services which has good demand very high level but you will never go wrong in investment. Even they get corrected bounce back fast

Thank you, Azul. You should also include the historical margin of error for all past predictions by Vanguard on the overall market outlook and use this to determine how likely Vanguard may be in being wrong. I understand that historical performance is no indication of future performance, butt some of us take brokerage assessments of this type with more than just a grain of salt, we should also know how wrong they have been in the past with their future predictions. Bless you and keep up the great work!

@tombkk1322

4 күн бұрын

So true.

I feel like I have heard Vanguard say this for several years in a row now. Is this a "even a broken clock is right twice a day" situation?

So Vanguard can see the future? What do they need customers for then?

Thanks for sharing

This is an outdated Vanguard report from March. New one was released in May. Their estimated inflation range at 1.5-2.5% is too low. I disagree with the emerging market estimate as it is not aligned with exchange rate impacts. Look at study from strong dollar impact.

In 30 years, I managed my portfolio, including 3 shares of Berkshire Hathaway Class A stock (BRK:A) bought at around $17,000 in the mid-90s. Liquidating some for new Gen. Stocks, I hesitantly invested in NVDA in 2021, alongside BTC and SOL, yielding over 200%. Market insights from YT 'gurus' are lacking, despite my 20 years of experience with Series 6 & 7. Professionals are crucial in investing; unseen market trends require trained eyes. I gained over 350% in semiconductor stocks under my estate planner (FA) through alternative investing, enjoying travel and liquidity perks.

@clementdan9417

Күн бұрын

this is inspiring . and your gains are impressive . who is this planner you speak of , and how I reach out?

@patrickjones1392

Күн бұрын

I am glad my story inspires you. My CFA ’monica Mary strigle ’ , a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.

@clementdan9417

Күн бұрын

appreciate the share , I looked up her full name online and found her page. I emailed and made an appointment to talk with her; hopefully, she gets back to me.

@richarddamien4654

Күн бұрын

thanks for the recommendation, I set up a call. I am keen on getting to talk to her particularly. Ldy looks really great though even with the exams and other stuff.

Reversion to the mean. Of course the next decade can’t be like this last decade but a slow next decade will set up for another great decade in the future.

@frawdulent

4 күн бұрын

He’s preaching to an older audience who won’t be around in 20 years.

I am guilty of listening to Market predictors. "Stay the course". Jack Bogel's recommendation. I would be rich if I listened to Jack. Some past predictions 2023: the recession is imminent, the semiconductor industry has a large inventory High interest rates are going to destroy the economy big Tech has no room to run. Realistically anything can happen

Are these the same experts that missed the growth stocks in the last 10 years and advised holding 20-50% in bonds?

@tombkk1322

4 күн бұрын

Very good point. Are they being held accountable for their bad forecasting 10 years ago? It seems they only put out negative information. Maybe this is a way to cover their asses if they’re wrong.

Was Vanguard correct in its forecast from 2014?

2008 after GFC it was predicted that avg. returns would be lower also. With that said, I am in the bear camp in the medium terms Long term I dunno

I miss the "Walk and Talk" videos. Still great content, but something about being outside made them less rigid feeling. Maybe a combination of venues? Thanks for your work!

this same report in 2014 said the same thing about the next 10 years at that time. Take it for what it's worth

Boomers hit peak 65 early in 2024 and are retiring en masse, we own half the wealth in this country, $68 trillion and rising, as we retire many will be selling stock investments to cover expenses + rising expenses, this is going to get tricky when net selling forces stock markets to drop which in turn forces selling of more shares to cover expenses, instead of stocks going exponentially up stocks may start going exponentially down. I have very little in stocks, mostly in bonds, cd's, closed end preferred funds, money market. If interest rates go up I will buy more bonds otherwise I will let my bonds mature over net 15 years.

@mkeller8114

4 күн бұрын

You will lose money to inflation with that strategy. At least 60-70% must be stocks no matter the age.

@miken7629

4 күн бұрын

@@mkeller8114 Won't buy stocks because I am old fashion and believe PE more than 15 is overpriced, just can't do it. I do buy some dividend stocks during a pull back. My plan to deal with expenses doubling every 12 years is to live on 50% income and reinvest 50% income.

No one cares about what they have to say. All analysts have missed this last run by massive amounts. The biggest myth is that any of these folks have a clue. The 500 biggest companies, on average, will always do well with low risk of them failing.

Spend your money wisely and enjoy life. Time keeps on ticking ticking into the future!

@shayscott7498

4 күн бұрын

Yup, I want to fly like an eagle!

@tombkk1322

4 күн бұрын

Good point!

Maybe just want more people into higher cost funds since s&p and total us have gotten so cheap to own.

Biggest lesson i learnt in 2023 in the stock market is that nobody knows what is going to happen next, so practice some humility and follow a strategy with a long term edge.

@Bunnydrille

4 күн бұрын

Nobody knows anything; You need to create your own process, manage risk, and stick to the plan, through thick or thin, While also continuously learning from mistakes and improving.

@Cottoncandyh

4 күн бұрын

Uncertainty... it took me 5 years to stop trying to predict what bout to happen in market based on charts studying, cause you never know. not having a mentor cost me 5 years of pain I learn to go we’re the market is wanting to go and keep it simple with discipline.

@JesseMayhill

4 күн бұрын

Could you kindly elaborate on the advisor's background and qualifications?

@Cottoncandyh

4 күн бұрын

Melissa Elise Robinson. She's well established in that area. Look name up

@JesseMayhill

4 күн бұрын

Thanks a lot for this recommendation. I just looked her website up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me

The way I see it stocks are being sold at high PE's based on future earnings. So you have already seen a lot of the profits. If the market tanks and you can start buying at fair PE's then returns would be closer to historic levels. But paying top dollar today based on future earnings then ya, your buying high and that's eating into future returns. As far as REITS, IMO sure REATS as a whole will feel pressure (malls,SFR,etc) but will something like O (Reality Income) be limited to 5-6% if you picked it up in the last year at a 25% discounted price at a fair FFO? Anyway, I'm not a financial guy but IMO it really comes down to what were you able to buy at.

might as well get past the next recession and reset on this kind of analysis then, because market is likely to be down 50% or more in the next recession. then we can look at valuations

Genuinely don’t care if the market fell 50% tomorrow. I’m in for the long and I’d just buy more. Markets fall and come back. Just stay the course.

Ai means way less workers full stop

Oh I didn't know Vanguard had a crystal ball, lol!

Investment managers, broker strategists whoever they are, have never ever reviewed or assessed what they said even a year ago.

As an Engineer with 30+ year experience in Software and Systems, I can tell you that this same prediction was made decades ago with the personal computer and then the Internet. All this wonderful productivity would bolster business and leave humankind with much more leisure time. Well, what happened since the 1980's? There were some noted productivity gains, but the future did not quite evolve as the "experts" of the time predicted. There is much more to expect from technology than "productivity". Safety, security, accuracy, and new applications are paramount to productivity.

Time in market > timing the market

I have been expecting the economy to fall off the Cliff since 2011 every single year. Eventually, I'm going to be right. I think the only thing that makes sense is to diversify. Nobody really knows what's going to happen.

Azul thanks for all of your videos sir; greatly appreciate your efforts in educating the public with the topic of money and investing. Personally, I am more of an energy and commodities type of investor (sectors that I follow closely), especially the precious metals which have had a huge run these last few years and are poised to continue their run based on my research and understanding. Are you able to do a video on the topic? Agree with me or not I am super curious on your opinion as I sincerely feel you are trying to help peopl le and 0:43 that topic could benefit many. Thanks Azul and maybe I will get to you in 5 years when the wife and I are 62 to prep to step off the hamster wheel 🎉 at 62 and 1 day 😉. Thanks again.

Someone should figure out how to use AI to filter all the scammy bot comments out of the comment section.

Thank you for breaking down the Vanguard study for us. I invest with Schwab intelligent portfolios so I’m hoping they read the report too.

Vanguard can kiss my assertion! Vanguard in and of itself has a certain gravitational pull on the market...must be nice! If Vanguard had a track record of nailing these predictions they would be the only game in town...they aren't.

@randallschroederrandy2303

4 күн бұрын

One quarter there was 100 billion invested in mutual funds 80% went to Vanguard

Just continue to save and invest. The good news is that you won't have to wait 10 years to see of your investments are moving in the direction you'd like.

Old geezer here. Now in my 6th decade of investing. This MAY be true! But, there is a long history of predictions and forecasts being wrong.

Their predictions are quite different from just Q1. AI's impact on the markets is just too uncertain to predict so it's safer to drop expectations.

In October 2023, on CNBC, Vanguard heads said 2024 would be "below average"

No other channel like this one. So you have an advantage over most people

If you wanna make the universe laugh just give your predictions for tomorrow

So, how do those of us near retirement with all of our assets in traditional IRAs keep our retirement assets safe?

@don951

4 күн бұрын

Tune out the noise and stick to your plan.

Azul… didn’t they pretty much say the exact same thing in 2014 or so?

While I rather enjoy your optimism about a "good" outcome for AI I have to say that what is being sold is that it will result in more productivity from the same number of workers, the reality that I am seeing is a large number of positions being eliminated to accomplish the same amount of work. The costs of employees is the second largest for an employer and reducing costs is the current corporate guiding light. It may well result in better company profits, but I fear it remains a distinct threat to many individual workers.

10 year outlook is not worth much in my opinion.

Historically, if US funds are not doing well, the rest of the world is not either. Are they saying this is going to change, then why?

3%? I think I did 10% just in the month of june

vanguard has been saying this same thing for a while now, that the next decade of equity returns will be lower and that international equities will outperform. Still waiting for them to be right.... A broken clock is right twice a day I figure, so it's bound to happen eventually. I will say, I don't think vanguard has totally taken into account the impact that diminished equity returns would have on tax receipts and how, as a result, the government won't allow equity values to fall. Any fall in equities will be met with a swift fiscal and monetary policy response, at the expense of the lower and middle classes that rely on the value of the currency. Just my 2 cents, time will tell...

In summary. No one knows. As Warren Buffett says - "Don't bet against the US economy". On population and worker decline. This isn't true. Immigrants are making up the difference, causing a population increase. All of this confirms the need to diversify and make sure you have income streams that don't require selling the principle of stock investments.

@EarthSurfer

4 күн бұрын

The USA was built by immigrants, and they remain vital to our future growth and success. Birthrates for the USA are below what is needed to sustain our population, and immigration is necessary to fill the jobs and pay my future Social Security 😆. (This is to just expound on @richardcarlin1332 statement.)

I sold all my NVDA stocks about 4 months ago thinking it topped out and wanted to lower my risk level. Cost me about $300k in gains. I’m ok with my decision. It treated me well. Put a good portion in Fidelity Contra and still getting nice gains. I got away from dealing with Vanguard.

Can't predict tomorrow, let alone the next 10 years.

7 Trillion dollars of assets under management. I always wonder why these predictions are always so conservative.

Azul is just the messenger here,BUT (and this is a big BUT) repeating this, I’ll call it a “conspiracy theory” really makes him look bad. Nothing is pointing to a slowdown. I believe Vanguard is looking to make some money on people reshuffling there portfolios based on this information they are spewing. Of course the market (at sometime) will correct/pullback (usually after 6 bull markets) I’m staying in all equities (almost 62), extremely heavy in tech and I’m retiring in 62 days.

Just like the weather forecast.....nobody knows for sure...even AI doesn't......

No mention of crypto… seems neglectful

So the market is expecting a 4-6% return. Add to that, the positive impact of AI, and we're all good. The future will bring big changes, but we will figure it out.

Ol Buffet said no one knows what the market will do

the US-economy is a consumer-driven economy. Question: where is the money for this consume coming from? helicopter money? housing bubble? give credit witout liabilities - and sell these to ... to whom, btw? Japan? Germany? China? - they are all going under. ... maybe one start thinking about the "why" - to then come to the conclusion. // ps: and besides the e/a ratio: who shall buy the stocks to make them rise in the next 10 years? the pensioners who were workers & doers in the "good times" will sell them for financing their living - and who shall buy these then?

Inflation better come down to 2% if market returns are going to be 4-5%

Things get worse because the government won't be able to borrow like it does now in the future.

Azul sounds like he's in a bunker. Vanguard's low growth projection isn't shocking considering Vanguard and Blackrock heavily support growth crushing DEI over MEI. High developed market growth than the US doesn't make any sense, given the reliance on US for that growth. Prime example: the USA is Germany's largest trade partner now.

If you are already retired, you just care if your bonds continue to pay interest and your stocks continue to pay dividends. You need an income to live on, but you don't need to die rich.