Utah 2C Climate Outlook: NCA5 Update

Ғылым және технология

In the NCA5 we see a much larger change in the projections for Utah than other states in the region. In this video, we investigate the ominous high-change blob centered over Utah in the updated national climate assessment, and present the tipping point type risks unfolding around the Great Salt Lake.
I heard from many people on the ground regarding my NCA4 Utah video. The feedback was overwhelming- people did not think the NCA4 projections were bad enough to account for the change they were already experiencing. This feedback was consistent and unique to Utah- leading me to believe something is seriously going on there. The community feedback is very important to our understanding- please let me know if you think the NCA5 projections are more in-line with your perceived rate of change.
Here's a link to the NCA5:
nca2023.globalchange.gov/
To Dustin's Toolset:
public.tableau.com/app/profil...
And to the paper I used for images and information regarding the Great Salt Lake, with appreciation to Abbot, Baxter, Busche, and Freitas for their important work:
www.researchgate.net/publicat...
Discord link:
/ discord

Пікірлер: 39

  • @BenHuttash
    @BenHuttash18 күн бұрын

    I think there is huge utility in religious people talking about climate change in America. We have so many people going to churches that are run by people who possess no context to the culture of those who wrote the religious texts that they don’t even know it was written by people. Think of the lost oral tradition of the christians, They don’t even know what that is, maybe the catholics have it, I don’t know. Literal interpretation of text they think god wrote themselve is all they got. I personally am an atheist, my family was all raised southern baptist and as it turns out the only god I could believe in is the watchmaker god and that doesn’t exist in my family’s tradition. We need people like you bridging the gab between god and science to show that we humans can impact “creation.” Thank you for what you do. I think it is very important.

  • @AmericanResiliency

    @AmericanResiliency

    18 күн бұрын

    @BenHuttash appreciate your kind words. This is info where everyone deserves access, it matters to reach out

  • @koicaine1230
    @koicaine123018 күн бұрын

    Thank you for being an amazing human ❤ it's so refreshing to see people from different beliefs and backgrounds uniting for the greater good of everyone ❤ I never share my religious beliefs because I don't want to be Pigeonholed by them but I'll share it here: Pantheism ❤ beautiful song ❤

  • @AmericanResiliency

    @AmericanResiliency

    17 күн бұрын

    @koicaine1230 it feels like we gotta bring our all to this moment. Thank you for sharing

  • @JEffinger
    @JEffinger18 күн бұрын

    Lots of arsenic and other heavy metals blowing off that dry lake bed. Not a great time for people.

  • @AmericanResiliency

    @AmericanResiliency

    18 күн бұрын

    @JEffinger definitely a "happening now" problem

  • @UnknownPascal-sc2nk

    @UnknownPascal-sc2nk

    18 күн бұрын

    Not to mention other animals

  • @AmericanResiliency

    @AmericanResiliency

    18 күн бұрын

    @@UnknownPascal-sc2nk especially when we see the potential for more rain coming to the northwest corner- the corner that will be most poisoned by the dry lakebed, when there could be refugia forming there.

  • @kenmcclow8963
    @kenmcclow896318 күн бұрын

    The good thing about the increase in rainfall in the mountains between Provo and Price is a lot of that will end up in the Green River, or Price River and then the Colorado. There are some pretty big dry washes that mean that there have been some epic rain events in the past, that hopefully the engineers have taken into account. I went through there on Hwy 6 a couple times as a shortcut between I-15, or 89 and I-70, and I could see weather closing it, but so many trucks use it, I feel it would get a speedy repair like the road into Jackson Wyoming did when it failed at the beginning of tourist season

  • @AmericanResiliency

    @AmericanResiliency

    17 күн бұрын

    @kenmcclow8963 the ability of storms to go "next level" as of late is always a surprise. The northwest corner of my state got 14 inches in a day last week- totally weird! These kinds of infrastructure issues, I agree there'll be pressure to get them fixed quick, but I like to keep an eye on vulnerabilities, think of ways around them. I like that water system thinking!

  • @TofuMrMonster
    @TofuMrMonster11 күн бұрын

    Just got back to Salt Lake from a work trip to Moab and it was 108F yesterday :(

  • @AmericanResiliency

    @AmericanResiliency

    11 күн бұрын

    Moab is such a special place and the heat there is already over the top. My family went to Moab the summer we moved to California for work. A friend had given us like 5lbs of these awesome gummi bears that we left in the car, and they all melted into a giant blob when we went hiking. We were back before 10am and it was already that hot. To be fair, the kids loved taking a knife to the resulting gummi blob. But my point is, Moab does not need more heat.

  • @fadedrose100
    @fadedrose10018 күн бұрын

    I'd like to make a positive comment about SLC mass transit. Many years ago I wanted to travel from Montana to the desert of California. I didn't actually own a motorized vehicle at the time and I took it as a challenge to get there without flying or asking anyone for help. I made it there successfully and was delivered to the door step I was headed for by a regional California small bus transit driver. In the process I passed through Salt Lake City. Apparently, in preparation for the Olympics, they did a lot of work to improve and interconnect their mass transit system. Even though I didn't have a bike with me at the time, I rode in the dedicated bike car on the train to see what it was like. I lived car free for many years in a big city and they crammed the bike passengers into the same small space where people in wheelchairs and overflow standing passengers were and people had to pass through getting on and off the train. The dedicated bike car in SLC was heavenly!!! Easy access to get bikes into racks on one side and places to sit on the other side and there were many people using it, probably for their morning commute. Sure beats trying to drive on the freeways there! Also I found their schedules online were easy to use and times were coordinated with other mass transit like city busses.

  • @AmericanResiliency

    @AmericanResiliency

    18 күн бұрын

    @fadedrose100 SLC is a great city. We were looking at moving there for my husband's work about five years ago. He's had a tremendous regard for the place for decades, and I was also really impressed when we visited. These projections for SLC kinda suck but they're survivable. SLC is very friendly but that doesn't mean they aren't alarmingly tough. If they could get the lake under stewardship, this would be an important population center to hold. Other places, I wouldn't believe people could rise to the challenge. But in this case, the water is there, it's available in the larger regional system. They need a big behavioral change, a cultural change. I'm not counting them out til its done. If anyone could do it, these are the people that could.

  • @fadedrose100

    @fadedrose100

    18 күн бұрын

    @@AmericanResiliency I totally agree. They have made being organized a priority since the very beginning. If they set their mind to it they could overcome any obstacle. Unfortunately I don't see the cultural resistance changing any time in the near future. The first settlers to arrive in the valley immediately organized into work parties to dig canals to bring water down from the mountains. The men took turns working on it along with making a place to live. "Make the desert bloom like a rose." Many people believe that God led the chosen people to this land for a reason, that it will be a place protected in times of trouble and are going there to create a place where they feel safe. That includes growing their own food. Telling them there's water in the mountain lakes but you can't have it is not going to go over well!

  • @AmericanResiliency

    @AmericanResiliency

    18 күн бұрын

    @@fadedrose100 I wonder if more messaging that speaks to these deep cultural realities would help inspire change. I mean, the climate outlook for that part of the state is pretty good, and in an increasingly dangerous world. They were led to a good land, a land with potential for lasting prosperity! They could still grow food and put more water into the lake if they cut way down on beef. The families that settled here endured much more severe hardships than that, and they did it due to their belief in the potential for a good future.

  • @fadedrose100

    @fadedrose100

    18 күн бұрын

    @@AmericanResiliency You have such a good heart!!!! I've been outside mulching the potatoes and thinking about what message might be helpful and I'm sorry to say I'm pretty pessimistic. Telling them they have a good land would not be helpful in my opinion. Even mainstream LDS are afraid of the hoards flowing out of the cities like Vegas and coming for their 300 years of rice. If they could they would stay far under the radar and not call attention to themselves. Some out of state scientists pointing out it's a good place would not be welcome. The Zion curtain is really a thing. Many people would feel sad for the loss of bird habitat but they wouldn't let Grandpa's cherry tree die to save them. Manifest destiny is also still a thing. As far as toxins in the air. Many people might think things along the lines of God works in mysterious ways and will protect those who are righteous. And that all kinds of bad things will happen in the last days. The only thing I can think of is if the Prophet started saying that climate change is a real thing and explaining how it's impacting LDS people around the world that might have some impact. Many men and now women, served on missions in other countries and care very much about the people where they served. People are willing to conserve but they see it as a temporary situation and the water will come back. The message about the issues needs to come from church leaders, not politicians and scientists.

  • @AmericanResiliency

    @AmericanResiliency

    18 күн бұрын

    @@fadedrose100 I think the international humanitarian appeal is powerful, but I don't know that it'll move high-level leadership. And we absolutely need leadership from the top of the LDS hierarchy if this type of behavior change is going to happen. This is what I think could drive it. And I don't know that it will, but it could- it's just a chance. LDS church leaders are smart about the bottom line. If they see that it makes sense for their long-term interests to drive change, if it makes financial sense to drive change, change will happen. I used to go to a popular LDS lunch spot in Mesa AZ when I was studying at ASU. It was like a salad bar- they had all those elaborate salads! I would hear LDS guys talking about business all the time there. I heard lots of indications that LDS people in business were climate-aware, but that they saw it as a tomorrow problem. Things have changed really fast. We didn't know this was going to be such a serious today problem even five years ago. A lot of climate-aware people in leadership are still planning on a 2C = 2050 timeline. Helping people access this information a way they can hear is more important than ever- even if it's just to help get people out of the most dangerous areas before our first 2C summer comes. I heard from 3 more households just these past 2 days. People getting out of AZ, getting out of south Texas, because they got the message.

  • @davidwatson7604
    @davidwatson760418 күн бұрын

    Utah's turn to get weird.

  • @AmericanResiliency

    @AmericanResiliency

    18 күн бұрын

    @davidwatson7604 this is a particularly hard outlook for the weirdest parts of Utah- feel bad for Moab

  • @RieCherie
    @RieCherie18 күн бұрын

    Cloud of Doritos ❤

  • @AmericanResiliency

    @AmericanResiliency

    18 күн бұрын

    Was so happy when I found that pic!

  • @mrbeansification

    @mrbeansification

    11 күн бұрын

    ​@@AmericanResiliency I audibly snickered when I saw that photo, and then when you said cloud of doritos I lost it! That really is one happy looking bird!

  • @AmericanResiliency

    @AmericanResiliency

    11 күн бұрын

    @@mrbeansification great username!

  • @Corrie-fd9ww
    @Corrie-fd9ww18 күн бұрын

    Omg i can’t with the bebe birb walking through a cloud of Dorito’s 🤣🤣🤣🤣🥺🥺🥺🥺 (Totally uncool comment to boost the algo but oh well. Here at AR we are proud weirdos 🤷🏻‍♀️)

  • @AmericanResiliency

    @AmericanResiliency

    18 күн бұрын

    @Corrie-fd9ww it's an amazing shot they got! That bird looks so happy, and it's such a clear shot in a really dynamic situation.

  • @Corrie-fd9ww

    @Corrie-fd9ww

    18 күн бұрын

    If I could get as amped as that lil birb eating tiny weird fly thingies I’d be there too 🤣🤣

  • @cathmires8990
    @cathmires899018 күн бұрын

    Need to talk about the geoengineering going on in our skies.

  • @AmericanResiliency

    @AmericanResiliency

    18 күн бұрын

    @cathmires8990 I would love to do a video about geoengineering and all the crap that people are pulling now. I should be brave and do it.

  • @RieCherie

    @RieCherie

    18 күн бұрын

    Yes, you already are brave! So you should do it. I would love to hear your input.

  • @Petunia3001

    @Petunia3001

    16 күн бұрын

    @@AmericanResiliencyI would include myself amongst those that would be interested and grateful for your thoughts on this.

  • @bonnieprather610
    @bonnieprather61018 күн бұрын

    Dr. Schoerning, seems you should be warning the people of Utah to maybe just leave the state, like you did for Oregon.

  • @AmericanResiliency

    @AmericanResiliency

    18 күн бұрын

    @bonnieprather610, I have a complex reaction to your comment, I don't think it reflects how I intended the Oregon message to be received. But, you put stuff out there, people are going to interpret it for themselves. And I try to make the evidence clearly available, people have a right to look at the evidence and draw their own conclusions. If I were in SLC, based on the climate outlook, I might stay. Looks like it'll suck, but many people are very deeply rooted there, and I think they would find the projected conditions survivable. However, if they don't get the lake under stewardship, their window closes. Right now, they're not doing the work. Only rapid behavior change, culture change, would save the potential in the area.

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