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Could also add point on market share for Uber here as well. Not all of the population will use only Uber.

@Norainjoe

Жыл бұрын

this was the big gap in the answer

Pretty comprehensive approach - Only thing which was missed imo is Competition. The question was "Uber" Drivers - There are other competitors like Lyft. So the actual number will be lesser.

not really great assumptions. 475K rides pr hour? why is everyone moving every hour?

The 50% of population (leaving out 60 yrs) needs to be applied to SF's population. SF's total population is 1M. So I'm wondering whether subtracting 1M from 3.5M is correct. It should have been 0.5M subtracted from the 3.5M leaving 3M for South Bay. The final number won't be affected much though.

Watching this helps me understand just how much an algorithm reflects the thinking and personality of the person writing it

Another possibility: do segmentation before TAM sizing based on age distribution. Because, you can assume more young people to live in SF while more family people (aged 40-60) could live elsewhere.

Thanks for the example! I like when you imagined the rate of South Bay rides/hour might be lower due to it being less densely populated (therefore requiring more drivers per rider there)

would you factor in Covid exodus approximation from Bay area (Tech workers) into the target rider population (Demand) to calculate the Drivers (Supply)

feedback could include some other ideas of approaching this estimate, such as a % of vehicles on the road that are uber vehicles, or using published trips data from Uber to work backwards and estimate # of trips. I don't think we are necessarily looking for a number, but more on the approach to get to that estimate.

The data I would like to have access is 1. Age group of population 2.Number of people owning a car I would have given answer in terms of ranges and best & worst case scenarios.

Really helpful

The SF population of 1 million should have been substracted from 7.5 million. Correct me if I am wrong.

this is so gooddddd

As an ex-Uber driver, my answer would be. When it's peak hours and there's a red color on the Uber apps heat map. Drivers should be a lot. I Thank you...

Few more thing I would do. Anything wrong? Are we including Uber Eats delivery drivers or just Uber Rides? According to me "peak" hours would last for 2-3 hours not just 1 hour. So after calculating the no of rides, I will split them equally across 2-3 hours.

awesome

cant it be the no. of uber app installations in that area to make it simple?

A 1:1 ratio for teh nuber of ride to no of riders is a bad assumption. A rider would be taking at least 3-4 rides a week (depeding on the age group breakdown) . Taking a monthly rides approach is a better idea here imo.

Anybody know what software she Shalong was using to type down the points?

@SharadKandoi

2 жыл бұрын

google docs

I would rather leverage the data from the Uber itself, to understand the patterns and perform a predictive analysis. Because I feel these numbers from the data will be more accurate compared to the assumptions made with outside number. This would be my approach as a product manager.

@tryexponent

Жыл бұрын

Hi Imraan! Thanks for sharing your approach!

Could someone please help to explain why assuming age distribution to be normal would yield a 3.5m for people aged between 18-60 from the total 7m population? Thanks!

@suchitrapalat

2 жыл бұрын

Ages 18-60 would roughly be population set of 40 yrs which is half of the total population with 80 yrs life expectancy ( if normal distribution is considered). So it would be half of 7M which is 3.5M

@JupiterChamsae991102

2 жыл бұрын

@@suchitrapalat I turned on the subtitles and saw she actually said uniform distribution...

Would it help to consider number of total peak hours, and competitor market share/uber market share?

@tryexponent

Жыл бұрын

Hi Bhavya! It would be helpful provided that you have other pieces of information to help with your estimation e.g. total drivers in the market x uber market share = uber drivers. Hope this helps!

Can someone answer where she got the number 8 from?

Curious if the question is shared ahead of the interviews?

@sid4752

2 жыл бұрын

Commenting to follow.

@obinnaea2

2 жыл бұрын

Definitely not

I think that the assumptions were not reasonable and open to debate. Assuming a data point doest mean that one has to make it super broad. I would have done a normal distribution of the age groups and then for each segment assign a % of users who would use uber on a Friday evening.

When asked this question in an interview, I could either solve it in 10 minutes like she did with so many assumptions OR I could go into detailed user groups (like students, workers, special events/concerts) and consider trips per hour divide them into casual users/power users and do a weighted average --> This would take about 30-40 minutes. Isn't this type of a detailed approach better for interviews?

@srijitjain1458

10 ай бұрын

You will mostly get 5-7 mins for a question like this in an interview. Also its not about getting to right answer but to see if you think on your feet.

Does someone know the real number?

The age range is wrong, she’s saying no under 18 just for corporate. In reality a lot of rides for under 18 year olds.

She removed the population under 18 and over 60 coz they cannot be drivers but then used the # 3.5M for calculating riders. She got confused on the actors here

@j10001

2 жыл бұрын

I think she was saying they cannot ride alone (under 18) or won’t use an app (over 69) - so riders either way

she forgot to tweak the number of people take rides per hour during covid time. since most of them would do WFH and not take uber ,hence 200k people will take ride per hour during covid.

@dhruvmatta2012

2 жыл бұрын

I believe her assumption was "pre-covid times" so that would not be a factor in this case.

@arti8950

2 жыл бұрын

@@dhruvmatta2012 maybe.

Uber corrupção

Little surprising that she said people age 60+ are too old to be familiar with the technology. The way she phrased that plus her assumption around that statement is somewhat offensive.

I must say that's a lot of assumptions that you made. I don't think that's how it works though. Nothing personal.

@pranamdaga8716

2 жыл бұрын

Assumptions is exactly how estimation questions work

@rutherfordbond2879

2 жыл бұрын

@@pranamdaga8716 Assumptions must be made on relevant data sets. Like the data set of car owners in the Bay area.

@vanshpandita3968

2 жыл бұрын

@@rutherfordbond2879 But in an interviews one does not have the access to that information, it is purely based on the information that the interviewer gives to you. If you can estimate & come up with a good guess you would be more than qualified to do the job.