KZread timestamps by Les 00:50 see also TWiV 940: Eddie Holmes in on viral origins www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-940/ 01:16 Summarize evidence for wild animal market spillover 04:13 Market was sparse when he visited before SARS2 so lots of cases clustering around there is significant 04:57 Could lab workers brought it to the market? 15:03 Wildlife trade for exotic luxury food and fur is massive in Asia TWiV1016 says $7-$70 Billion in China alone so hard to stop 15:54 2 SARS2 lineages (B has the D614G change) 21:40 Claims that Lab workers may have got early SARS-2 24:51 Closest Sarbecoviruses discovered in nature Hard to find the exact ancestor 34:15 Bird Flu 35:52 What we need for a flu spillover 36:09 China's CDC grew after SARS1 37:46 worked to stop a bird flu outbreak by vaccinating 13 billion chickens didn't work for SARS2 39:30 Humans encroaching on animal habitats cause spillover 41:56 Farmed animals 2019 Swine flu Humans spillback to animals 44:39 other Eddie Holmes Lab work 45:24 How To support Microbe tv 46:48 New logo Audio podcast timestamps by Jolene

@martinpollard8846

11 ай бұрын

thanks LF for the stamps, sometimes i'm time poor and cant get thru the lot

@seekingfortruth_

11 ай бұрын

Thank you!

@dahawk8574

11 ай бұрын

Let's not overlook 25:24 - Banal

@lesfaby8997

11 ай бұрын

@@dahawk8574 if they took an oral sample, they would get bit. So, they sample from the other end. See TWiV 809 www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-809/ for the most detail on what they found.

@davecarstairs-wilmington3929

10 ай бұрын

Oh dear. This is now a propaganda video as proven by the recent emails, showing Eddie Holmes’ real views. This is very embarrassing and further discredits Earth’s Virologist.

My guess is: History will have a harsh verdict over this conversation

@Sceince01

3 ай бұрын

It already has as more data confirms and now more and more evidence has piled up in favor of natural spill over and lesser and lesser for lab leak.

Holmes has a very interesting take on the most recent reports about patient zero coming from the lab 22:46. He seems to be saying that the new evidence is so compelling that it must be unreliable because if it were reliable this debate would have been over long ago. Unless, of course, there was a coordinated cover up.

@Sceince01

11 ай бұрын

No this is not what he said . He said if it was true . Also because we knew about a scientists who reportedly fell ill but but did not have COVID. This was discussed on TWIV 2 years back . Suddenly sone body says they had COVID - turns out not true

Less than 2 minutes in I already have a question. Regarding the clustering/heatmaps of early cases in Wuhan. Isn't there a sampling bias at play there? They primarily looked for cases around the market. And illnesses with symptoms similar to Covid-19 but not confirmed with a biological test were back-classified as Covid-19 if the person had been in/near the market. There could be many cases that were not associated with the market that they simply didn't record, because of their methodology.

@barryth

11 ай бұрын

ALSO why didn't the market visitors and shop keepers all get sick? As the guest says it was people living in an area surrounding the market.

@celeritasc9207

11 ай бұрын

The conversation was somewhat problematic. I am on the fence, the paper outlining that there were two separate starts, the A & B strains with the B strain starting first makes 2 random starts in the Wuhan Market less likely if it was a lab leak. However, there are papers that contradict what Eddie Holmes claims in some areas. There was definitely an attempt to suppress the lab leak theory by both the science community and the government. And here again the scientist says some untruths. It is not necessarily true that it started in the market and all original cases are associated with the Wuhan market as Eddie claims. The NIH paper “The 50 days of Covid-19: A Detailed Chronological Timeline and Extensive Review of Literature Documenting the Pandemic” (PMC7378494) states that an article in the Lancet, state the first case reported on December 1st was not associated with the Wuhan Market. The Lancet paper “Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan China published Feb 15, 2020 indicates there was an original cluster of 41 patients associated with the market and an additional 13 patients that were not associated with the market. Eddie seemed to downplay the research that was being done in the lab with respect to Genetic Engineering and the Furin Cleavage Site. Furin cleavage sites are very, very, very rare. NIH Project 2R01AI110964-06 that funded the WIV research discusses the use of humanized mice (modified with human ACE-2 receptors in their lung tissue) and infectious clone technology (weasel words to avoid gain of function) with respect to the S proteins. It is the S1/S2 proteins that are the furin cleavage site. This is direct evidence the lab was creating a virus with a furin cleavage site that could infect humans by the ACE 2 receptors in their cells. Eddie also discusses that prior to the genetic sequence database being taken down made a positive identification as a racoon dog as the source but they took it away from him prior to him being able to publish. The reason provided - so he couldn’t scoop them. If that is so, why didn’t they publish. It is nonsensical. It is like the recent CIA agent that is claiming he has positive evidence of reverse engineering on alien spacecraft - except, wait for it - he hasn’t personally seen it. Also, later Eddie started talking about other potential sources other than racoon dogs as if he didn’t believe himself. I am on the fence and open to either, I really want to know. But this conversation appears to be further suppression rather than open discussion. As soon as I see untruths, I can’t trust the scientist and it really pains me because I am pro-science.

@bwhitmicro1058

11 ай бұрын

They didn't just look at cases around the market they looked at all of the cases (around 160) that were reported in Dec 2019. Many of those were linked to the market or lived in the community surrounding the market. This was data that was not gathered by the researchers, but by the WHO. They then mapped the cases in more detail using the geographic information they had on where the cases resided in the city. Plus you would not have expected ALL the visitors or workers in the market to get ill. Also, swabs of the market found SAR-CoV-2 localized in cages where mammals were known to be housed.

@brendanmay9585

10 ай бұрын

@@bwhitmicro1058 localized in cages - that is not correct. Nowhere does it say in cages. It only showed co-occurence of animal DNA and SARS-COV-2, but everywhere where they found SARS-CoV-2, they also found human DNA.

@brendanmay9585

10 ай бұрын

@@bwhitmicro1058 not all, but given the highly infectious nature it is weird that so few workers from the market were infected

How do you know that the information on the first cases is acccurate?

This must now be humiliating. I’m saddened to think that a man with such a fantastic career has openly trashed his own reputation in this way. And two people at the same time. I’m surprised this hasn’t been taken down. Though I’ve downloaded it to keep it secure.

@RationalMind

10 ай бұрын

Why would this be humiliating? Are you suggesting that some new evidence has recently come to light that has disproved something Eddie hung his hat on in this interview?

@davecarstairs-wilmington3929

10 ай бұрын

@@RationalMind yes. His emails. It’s over for both men in this video.

@RationalMind

10 ай бұрын

@@davecarstairs-wilmington3929 Oh dear. What was in his emails?

@Sceince007

3 ай бұрын

@@davecarstairs-wilmington3929 well why did republicans show a few emails and not all ? Why did they hide more important emails . Also emails clearly exonerate them not the other way around . Just because you are to dim to understand does not mean they did something wrong . Now that there is overwhelming evidence that the lab is virus is natural don’t you think it’s pretty cheap to blame real life super heroes eg Dr Fauci who is credited with saving over 5 million lives in USA and Europe from COVID and hundreds thousands of lives before throughout the world?

@bojandolinar1535

2 күн бұрын

Australian Academy of Sciences posted this regarding this so called "loss of reputation": "It is easy to sow doubt - to take sentences from here and there in email streams and compare early thinking with later conclusions - and presume any change is due to some unspecified pressure rather than a change in the weight or direction of evidence, or even argument"

I was at ASM but sadly couldn’t make the session. Thanks for the recording

This is a quote from an Eddie Holmes email on Feb 10, 2020. Referring to SARS CoV 2 he writes: "Seems to have been pre-adapted for human spread from the get go." Does that sound like natural origin?

@Sceince01

2 ай бұрын

Actually the common theme among lab leakers and antivaxers is lack of attention to detail , cherry picking and mentioning half the facts to send people in the wrong direction . He actually describes in detail and shows it was somewhat ready for humans , he actually names the mutation that happened about 6 weeks ( approx ) after the first known pts that truly adapted it to humans . Also it has been shown multiple times in multiple studies that when you grow the virus on culture ( in lab ) it actually looses the adaptability to infect humans - does it sound like lab leaked ? Now that the facts are opposite to waft you thought will you respect the fact or like typical antivaxer and lab leaker - absolutely ha..te the facts ?

@bojandolinar1535

2 күн бұрын

Not really conclusive, but it's more likely it refers to natural origin. And by Feb 6 Holmes was already leaning towards the natural origin, based on the same emails.

"adding a layer of complexity is really" a bad counter argument to convince any lab leakers, heck, it is an argument from authority and really does not help the discussion.

@Littleprinceleon

10 ай бұрын

I think he was referring Occam's razor 😊

@brendanmay9585

10 ай бұрын

@@Littleprinceleon any regular TWIV listener will know that Occam's razer is not a good mental model for medical research.

@sciencefliestothemoon2305

9 ай бұрын

@@Littleprinceleon That is even worse, especially with infectious diseases.

@Sceince01

3 ай бұрын

Its not argument from authority it’s an argument appealing to the common sense . When did a lab leaker for lab leak had common sense ?

Lab or market. When dors China receive a massive fine for the choas they caused and when do they start paying for the medical bills for the world associated with Covid?

I'm really struggling to make sense of any of this. I hear here about the cluster of cases around the market in December 2019. Then I read Schellenberger, Taibbi and Gutentag's article 'First People Sickened By COVID-19 Were Chinese Scientists At Wuhan Institute Of Virology, Say US Government Sources' (these cases were late November 2019). What is the source for the information about the early cases? Is it possible that the CCP provided this information to make the market look like the source? I sure don't trust anything that the CCP says.

@hardtakeoff

10 ай бұрын

And you trust the United States government?

@hardtakeoff

10 ай бұрын

I have the sense that the dude hosting this has a vested interested in it not being a lab leak or engineered virus.

@joefrancis759

10 ай бұрын

Have those guys come up with anything better than anonymous "US Government Sources" yet? They sound not unlike a lot of the Russiagate reporting they criticized so heavily.

@Sceince01

3 ай бұрын

Proven false . It was another dumb attempt

@patrickg3618

3 ай бұрын

@@Sceince01 June 20, 2023: Wall Street Journal: "U.S.-Funded Scientist Among Three Chinese Researchers Who Fell Ill Amid Early Covid-19 Outbreak. Identification of three who worked at Wuhan Institute of Virology fuels suspicion for proponents of lab-leak theory:

I am confused to who was the first known infected person and why is that so hard to get information on. Sorry if I am missing something.

@soar2779

11 ай бұрын

Patient zero worked in the lab I believe his name is Ben Whu. It was absolutely gain of function. NIH funded this. There is a paper trail with Ben's signature on some of the docs for the money.

@personzorz

11 ай бұрын

​@@soar2779incorrect. The first known patients were hospitalized out in the population. You are referring to some extraordinarily crappy information that a few people, just like most of the population, had generic respiratory crud a few months earlier

@maytreesf2309

11 ай бұрын

Ben Hu has denied he was even sick. Also he worked in Bioinformatics, not anything remotely related, and says he and the accused other tested negative for antibodies in March 2020. Plus now the IC report makes clear that sick WIV worked didn’t have symptoms in Dec 2019 that was necessarily anything other than the typical allergies, cold or flu. Plus the supposed dead wife is apparently not a thing either.

@sammavitae114

11 ай бұрын

@@soar2779Well what about the US marine who attended the military games in October 2019. China claims she was patient zero. See how easy it is to make up shit.

@MarcosElMalo2

11 ай бұрын

@@soar2779stop spreading lies.

Hi Eddie Holmes, Would you be willing to debate RFK on Joe Rohan’s podcast?

@Costa_Conn

11 ай бұрын

LOL Eddy is a scientist, and science is not debated in some sort of public arena. Consensus comes from publication of alternative theories and the consideration by individual scientists of the veracity of evidence. Debates are based on rhetoric, not empirical evidence. Try explaining why the methodological flaws in a meta-analysis to the public in a 'debate' mediated by self-acknowledged idiot, Joe Rogan. Add to that RFK Jr doesn't understand the science, hence a debate would be totally pointless.

@caliguy1260

4 ай бұрын

Who is Joe Rohan?

Why does Eddie have so much faith in the location of patient zero as provided by the Chinese?

@sam-gb8pb

11 ай бұрын

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

@adriandmochowski9391

11 ай бұрын

$$$

@Sceince01

2 күн бұрын

Because facts speak for themselves . The first cases were not picked up by government but by a simple doctor working in hospital who was then clever enough to compare it with SARS 1 , government got involved two days after .

@Sceince01

2 күн бұрын

@@adriandmochowski9391 no not every body is like your parents , stop projecting .

Dr. Raceniello needs to interview (1) Dr. Robert Redfield, MD, virologist and former CDC director, (2) Dr. George Fu Gao, virologist and immunologist and former director the Chinese CDCP, who are among scientists who have said things that keep the "lab leak" possibility alive. This talk with Dr. Holmes is fine, but we have enough of interviews of like-minded people. It's about time to hear contrarian opinions.

@deeder001

11 ай бұрын

Dr. Redfield simply stated early in the pandemic - same as everyone else - that lab leak is one possibility that warrants full consideration, could not be ruled out yet. What has he said since then?

@thaominhtruong6038

11 ай бұрын

@@deeder001 Interview Dr. Redfield, and we will all find out what else he has to say, what his thinkings were behind that statement. We don't know for sure that, that statement was the only thing that he said re. this subject. I think, if my memory serves me correctly, that he even accused Dr. A. Fauci and other scientists dealing with the pandemic, "sidelined" him or "cancelled" him, or something like that, when he expressed his opinions to them. Let's hear him clarifying all those things. Who knows, he may vindicate himself, or may end up embarrassing himself. We got nothing to lose in hearing him talk. On the hand, living in an eco-chamber like-minded views is bad. Group thinking is bad.

@Costa_Conn

11 ай бұрын

To quote Gao (April 2023), who believes we will never know the answer to SARS CoV-2 origin, "The whole area is too sensitive. There is too much politicisation. We must focus on science”. Unfortunately at the beginning of the pandemic, some politicians chose to give their opinions without any consideration of the science.

@vapulate3096

11 ай бұрын

Did you want to share specific rebuttals of the scientific evidence supporting the animal origin? Dr. Holmes listed several lines of evidence in support of this.

@Grendel-td5nf

10 ай бұрын

@@Costa_Connoddly, some scientists gave an opinion not based on evidence too. Hint: it was Fauci.

Great to see Eddie back on the podcast.

@Marc-io8qm

10 ай бұрын

He is covering his arse. The virus was manufactured.

Jumping from one animal to another is according to UCDavis biology is such a rare event, but jumping twice 2 times in the same place next to the Wuhan’s Institute is some how the most plausible?

@DavidvanDeijk

11 ай бұрын

Yes, both lineages are very infectious for humans. The wildlife that was sold there might be the group of animals in which the mutation occurred.

@delfadavi5784

11 ай бұрын

@@DavidvanDeijk even in the conversation the admissions that it more often moves from human to animal. An asymptomatic infection could pass the virus from human to the animals in the wet market even if they found any evidence it came from the wet market.

@barbaradowell1285

11 ай бұрын

@@DavidvanDeijk There's no evidence of any live wildlife sold in Huanan Market during last months of 2019 being infected by the SARS2 virus responsible for Covid-19. Neither is there any evidence of a SARS2 infection in any wild or farmed population of these mammals elsewhere in China - then or now. An experimental infection of Raccoon-dog (Freuling et al 2020) provides the ONLY evidence that this mammal species - THE top candidate for intermediate host animal - can be infected by and spread the SARS2 virus. However, the strain used in that experiment was NOT the original (aka ancestral) strain, and instead was a mutated, more infectious strain known as D614G (as mentioned by Dr. Holmes) which evolved 2 full months AFTER the ancestral strain (D614) was estimated to have first "jumped" into the human population. Furthermore, experimentally infected Raccoon-dogs were found to be UNABLE to spread live SARS2 virus via their breath - only via their nasal secretions, so they are a poor candidate for being the host which spread into humans one of the most infectious respiratory viruses known. It's unknown whether Raccoon-dog could be infected by the ancestral (D614) strain of SARS2, and also unknown whether they could effectively spread the D614 strain - if infected - to others of its kind in a wild population - or to a human. All of the Raccoon-dog sold in the Wuhan wet markets for 31 months through end of November 2019 were "wild-caught"; there's no evidence of any live, farm-raised Raccoon-dog being sold in Huanan Market over that period.

@Littleprinceleon

10 ай бұрын

Coronaviruses are known to be very promiscuous 😊

@delfadavi5784

10 ай бұрын

@@Littleprinceleon yes. Each animal appears to have unique viruses which occasionally can jump species. According to UCDavis. It is a rare event they say. Yet other than Covid 19, SARS1, and MERS they don’t kill.

I think that the most convincing evidence, so far is the spot map showing the location of where the cases live, shop and attend recreational centres. At the centre of this map is the wet market. I have also seen a similar maps which show the locations of where those that work in the lab live, shop and attend recreational centres. There is very little overlap between the two sets of maps. The case for the virus spreading from the wet market is overwhelming. The counter argument that the virus was from the lab is very weak. If it had occurred in the lab and was carried from the lab to the market, why are there not more cases centred around the lab?

@djedd23

11 ай бұрын

Yes and the important thing is that cannot simply be explained away by ascertainment bias.

@stevebryan2446

11 ай бұрын

The first covid patients were scientists at the lab...

@danmatera1885

11 ай бұрын

This doesn't prove anything and also assumes that lab worker traffic is legitimate data coming from a country that is extremely controlling/manipulative of the narratives it spreads internally & externally. The nuances of viral spread are complex, most of the spread is from a minority of infected persons. It is very plausible that an infected lab worker infected someone else, etc. and the first superspreader event occurred at a crowded & highly trafficked market. Saying "the majority of evidence supports natural origin" is fine so long as you understand that the total amount of evidence is minimal and of low quality.

@sam-gb8pb

11 ай бұрын

There is not even a slightest hint it derives from a zoonotic trail, no evidence supports your blatant lie. Edward Holmes is a liar who claimed he 'forgot' about his work in WIV. WHY ARE YOU LYING?

I don't have a dog in this fight, as I have bigger fish to fry. But in an effort to be as objective as I possibly I can, it sure seems like Dr. Homes is doing exactly what the other side is doing. He points to a bunch of circumstantial evidence that he thinks is more persuasive than the other side's circumstantial evidence. You can tell from his tone/demeanor/passion that he's biased on this topic and such bias is likely clouding his objectivity. The big question is: would he change his position if the other side's circumstantial evidence was overwhelmingly more compelling and persuasive than his? I can't predict the future or read his mind. But I'm thinking the answer is no.

@Adiyasa2011

11 ай бұрын

Well formulated opinion! I agree

@TheHunterGracchus

11 ай бұрын

Of course the evidence is circumstantial, but that’s all that exists. Of course he would change his mind if better evidence for the the lab leak hypothesis turned up. At this point, the evidence for a lab leak is extremely weak.

@robinhood4640

11 ай бұрын

They are all the same. Here are some plausible eventualities, that could prove the opposing opinions to be not true. What more proof do you need?

@djedd23

11 ай бұрын

I don’t think you would feel that way if you properly understood the totality of evidence

@jakemarlow8998

11 ай бұрын

@@djedd23 That's funny because that's exactly what each side of any issue always says.

I'm takin my Raccoon dog to the shelter straight away.

So happy to watch your newest podcast. Thank you Thank you❤

Unfortunately people are invested in their preferred outcomes, and not the science. Not the truth. I have no opinion until solid evidence is released. I follow science.

@PK779able

11 ай бұрын

Epidemiologist Professor Raina MacIntyre discusses the unfortunate tendency of some to dismiss the potential for lab accidents and how she considers that is seen in some of the discussions on SARS-COV-2 origins where there remains a lack of clear evidence.

@vin5388

11 ай бұрын

Thank goodness people don’t forget to apply critical thinking in other important aspects of American life and issues ….otherwise we’d have a real S#%ts%%w on our hands !

@PhilipHuffupski

10 ай бұрын

The lab leak is an intellectual exercise that insists on a human cause which, statistically, is a magnitude less likely to have happened.

@Sceince007

3 ай бұрын

@@PK779able yeah sounds too desperate. Purposefully ignore wealth of evidence in favor of natural organ and forcefully and desperately try to connect dots that actually don’t connect . Does any body really fall for BS ?

Yes! Waited with bated breath for the Eddie Holmes interview. Will be sharing the hell out of this video.

@con53nie6

11 ай бұрын

Why.? He just laughs and dismisses the lab leak like its a conspiracy. He is not a good person. Furin cleavage site was being worked on in bio 4 labs. But he reckons there must be a middle animal. Instead of addressing the lab leak theory.

@patriciagiles5833

11 ай бұрын

@@con53nie6 Why share you ask? Well, because Holmes brings the scientific data. Sorry, I didn't run it by you first, though. And no, Holmes didn't entirely dismiss the lab leak hypothesis. That's what you heard listening with prejudice. It is, however, absurd for lab leakers to insist there's no other explanation when there happens to be no reliable evidence for the lab leak, only speculation and political posturing. "Furin cleavage site being worked on in 4 bio labs" does not satisfy the test for causality. "He's not a good person" is ad hominem.

@petercollingwood522

10 ай бұрын

Why? It's whitewashing bullshit.

@davecarstairs-wilmington3929

10 ай бұрын

@@con53nie6 yes, patented by moderna, on public record, in 2016. Eddie is completely sunk and he knows it.

@stevenponte6655

10 ай бұрын

@@con53nie6 I thought sars covid only requires BSL level 3.

The chances of a double cross over event are infinitesimal compared to the simple hypothesis of an earlier singular infection event.

@Littleprinceleon

10 ай бұрын

Cross over? Genetic x-over is entirely different event. You mean spill over: and where are the calculations for those chances you're talking about?

@NapoleonGelignite

10 ай бұрын

@@Littleprinceleon - a species jump is ‘rare’. So this hypothetical double, simultaneous species jump is rare to the power of rare. Seems vanishingly improbable.

Was there not evidence of much earlier circulation, as in September of 2019? Its difficult to rely on the early data.

@gribbler1695

11 ай бұрын

Nothing confirmed.

@sam-gb8pb

11 ай бұрын

Yes, database at WIV taken offline in September 2019 and PCR testing equipment ordered, plenty of evidence of competitors at Military Games getting ill. It was floating around for months and further mutations in December 2019 and January 2020 led to the hospitals unable to cope. There is plenty of evidence of cases from 2019 in China long before the cover up story of the wet market was invented on 31 Dec 2019. You don't arrest and silence eight doctors if a natural event took place and deny human transmission for a further 3 weeks unless you have a lot to cover up and deny.

@gribbler1695

11 ай бұрын

@@sam-gb8pb You don't understand how the CCP operates.

@Sceince01

2 ай бұрын

No just some worried Canadian soldiers .

Thank you for doing these!

Who documented the first detected cases surrounding the market? How would you cover-up a lab leak knowing past origins of a spillover?

@Costa_Conn

11 ай бұрын

It was published by Chinese MDs. Something like 40 of the first 70 hospitalized cases lived or worked around the wet market.

@Sceince007

3 ай бұрын

They just showed up at various hospitals.

When was this recorded?

@gribbler1695

11 ай бұрын

18 June 2023.

How about talking to a “Lab Leaker” Vincent for a bit of balance

@PK779able

11 ай бұрын

Even someone who is agnostic like Jesse Bloom or David Relman would add some balance.

@personzorz

11 ай бұрын

Should be debate flat earthers too

@alexdevcamp

11 ай бұрын

​@@personzorzyes, you should. If you don't debate these people out in the open, they will continue to convince people in their own echo chambers

@cedcol356

11 ай бұрын

Also debate some holocaust deniers and tin hat wearers

Well the first cases WERE "near" the lab-- in fact they were actual lab workers! Not to mention the literal mountain of unusual and suspicious behavior and activity in and around that lab in late 2019/early 2020, although some seem to conveniently forget (not without the help of the censors it must be noted). It's really shocking that at this late stage in the pandemic that some still cling to the natural origins hypothesis, despite no real evidence for it, compared to the massive amount of evidence supporting the lab origin. This channel has been losing quite a lot of credibility recently, and that's really a shame.

@Sceince007

3 ай бұрын

There is zero evidence for lab leak and overwhelming evidence for natural . That’s why only the clueless or the liars go for lab leak . For example you had to resort to lying - which lab worker ?

I love how he was ticked pink at the end when Vincent recapped his Holmes’ lab papers

Given the inpoverished data, anyone who exhibits a high degree of certainty is highly suspicious. 😊

@Sceince01

3 ай бұрын

Also any body who spews nonsense after nonsense in an uneducated manner ( with no ability to qualify obviously dumb conclusions ) should be dismissed as too ign..rant .

@Sceince01

3 ай бұрын

1: how did it leak twice ? 2: if it leaked how did it end up at animal markets both times and different animal markets 3: why did the earliest 19 cases cluster around west side of market - where the suspect animals were kept 4: why is it that the lab workers families are not among the earliest cases ? 5: if it was being worked in lab how did the furin cleavage sites survive in culture when over 3 years it’s been shown again and again that they don’t in cell culture + other changes ? 6: what was the nearest virus that the lab had that changed ? Where is your evidence that they had it ? 7: why did the initial cases not occur at 10 other more crowded places in city ? 8: why did the initial cases occur where they were supposed to if it’s animal spill over A or B

@brendanmay9585

3 ай бұрын

@@Sceince01 we've discussed this. Your claims are unsupported. who was not allowed into china for an entire year, and you're claiming they tested the workers? Where did you get that from. Obviously not the WHO report itself. Because if you read that, you will clearly see that the WHO itself says there was no ability to collect data.

@Sceince01

3 ай бұрын

@@brendanmay9585 o see that you ate trying to be very dishonest . In my reply when you mentioned that I clearly told you I had mentioned that from my memory from 2021 when I had read that report . So I corrected it and told you that the samples were tested by Chinese authorities and WHO team only verified it without inspection . They did not find any reason to doubt it . You have not been able to answer any of my questions and purposefully ignoring them shows you we not just dumb but dishonest as well . Am I right about you ? Have you been able to answer any of questions? Which one of my questions have you answered ?

I’m here for the monster truck rally and I’m not disappointed. 😂

I wonder if he bought a new boat with his Fauci cash? 😂😂

Didn’t Eddie Holmes play a part in the Proximal Origins paper??

Zoonotic spillover is a perfect example of “When you hear hoof beats, think horses not zebras.” Lab-leak theorists can quite rightly argue that that doesn’t apply in the Serengeti, but such gotcha reasoning is sophomoric and delivered so often with arrogance, ridicule and suspicion. Thank you Eddie and Vincent for your calm, solid reasoning backed up by good science. The puzzle may never be completed but the many pieces you put together fall into place nicely without being forced. Speaking of stripes, nice socks, Eddie! 🐎 🦓

@PK779able

11 ай бұрын

As was noted in the Atlantic. There are dueling coincidences. Outbreak in Wuhan when WIV sampled SARS-related bat coronaviruses in Yunnan and Laos. Versus many early cases being linked to the market. The problem David Relman notes is the early case data is "hopelessly impoverished". A lot of missing early cases. While David Bahry has set out how market link was often required for early diagnosis. So the market coincidence isn't determinative. The argument there were two spillovers in the market also seems to rest on a single lineage A sample found on a glove (PPE?) tested on 1 January 2020. Gao et al (2023) consider the market a superspreader (Beijing and Singapore had superspreader events at wet markets too). A clear answer seems elusive.

@sciencefliestothemoon2305

11 ай бұрын

@@PK779able the market or even a person at the market as a superspreader makes sense. Throughout the beginning of the pandemic superspreader events were an important driver of infection.

@austinwoodall5423

11 ай бұрын

Have we ever seen a bat with covid19? Can bats even be infected with sars cov 2? Where are the bat infectivity studies? We know mice can carry the virus and we know humans can carry the virus. Hell, we know deer can carry the virus. You're adding a "layer of complexity" by assuming an as yet unknown "intermediate host." That's absurd. Where do we know there are modified bat-borne coronaviruses, humans, and another known carrier (mice)? The god damn lab. Your explanation is that peasants gathered hundreds of different live species, one of which carried a special virus that could infect an intermediate host, but not humans, then that virus mutated within that mythical host to infect humans but not the original carrier, bats. It is absolutely ridiculous to think a virus could evolve like that without large populations of similar species. That kind of mutation would require 10s of thousands of same species hosts interacting with 10s of thousands of intermediate hosts. Like is the case in humans and mice who quite often cohabitate. Bats and civets literally never cohabitate, especially not in the population sizes required to achieve what you propose. The "natural origin" theory is not even worth considering for sars cov 2. Contrast this with sars and mers. Within a couple months, we found the host populations and those populations came in close, prolonged contact with humans. Ridiculous.

@romanpolanski4928

11 ай бұрын

@@sciencefliestothemoon2305 No one disputes the role in the wet market in propagating the virus. However, that occurred in January 2020, whereas the infection at the WIV was in November 2019.

So Eddie starts off the conversation by mis-representing the distance of the WIV from the market. There are two locations for the WIV, one many kilometers away, and one a few kilometers away. Suggesting that there is only the remote location is a mis-representation. Not a compelling start to the argument.

@adriandmochowski9391

11 ай бұрын

There are plenty of half-truths there. Like claiming that animals were removed from the market before investigation, and that's why animal intermediary host was not found. This kind of assumes that: - there was only one individual animal infected, - no other animals of this species were infected ever, - virus mutated in this single animal to be highly infectious in humans. It happened just like that - by pure magic. If you don't believe it, you're anti-science.

@Marco-it2mr

10 ай бұрын

"There are two locations for the WIV, one many kilometers away, and one a few kilometers away. " Nope. All locations of the WIV are more than 10 km distance from the Huanan market. Perhaps you mistake it with the Wuhan CDC.

@zstopperuno

10 ай бұрын

@@Marco-it2mr The WIV location closest to the market is about 12.6 km away and the more remote location is about 29 km away. So I maintain my contention that it is intellectually dishonest to, as Eddie did, try to create the impression that there is only the one WIV location 29 km away. This kind of misrepresenting makes me question everything he has to say.

This guy is full of speculation- because there was a superspreading event at one of the busiest & most crowded markets in that region of china does not prove animal spillover. Also, not adressing the fact that WiV & the other labs in the region have not released the sequences of viruses they were working on. I have no problem with the natural origins hypothesis, but pretending it is anything beyond a hypothesis demonstrates a bias or lack of criticial thinking.

@Sceince007

3 ай бұрын

You definitely have the problem with natural origin because you are ignoring all the clear evidence . Which virus were they working on ? How did you tell yourself that two lineages do not matter ? How did the virus leak twice within a month and made a straight line ( each time ) to different wet market and avoided 10 more crowded areas ? At this time only the most clueless think virus was lab leaked

@Sceince01

3 ай бұрын

1: how did it leak twice ? 2: if it leaked how did it end up at animal markets both times and different animal markets 3: why did the earliest 19 cases cluster around west side of market - where the suspect animals were kept 4: why is it that the lab workers families are not among the earliest cases ? 5: if it was being worked in lab how did the furin cleavage sites survive in culture when over 3 years it’s been shown again and again that they don’t in cell culture + other changes ? 6: what was the nearest virus that the lab had that changed ? Where is your evidence that they had it ? 7: why did the initial cases not occur at 10 other more crowded places in city ? 8: why did the initial cases occur where they were supposed to if it’s animal spill over

@bojandolinar1535

2 күн бұрын

​@@Sceince01 I was not aware of point 5, this is interesting. Could you provide some source? To me it's also weird why they would choose this virus for passages. They usually do that with viruses that they already know posses a certain trait.

@Sceince01

2 күн бұрын

@@bojandolinar1535 going to sleep after a long drive but those are not hard to find even on google. If by tomorrow evening you have not found please do let me know so I can site . Also interesting is the fact that no virologist would know that making a certain change would have desired effect . Also the virus adapted ( the best mutations to adapt to human ) to humans a month after the both leaks . Also interesting is the fact that lineage A which is older ( genetically ) showed up later ( meaning they’re had been multiple jumps to humans of both lineages until they reached large city and spread ) .

he said the first cases were reported in Dec 2019; but the first case was reported on Nov 1, 2019.

@brendanmay9585

10 ай бұрын

Do you have a source?

@MessiahNonEst

10 ай бұрын

@@brendanmay9585On PLOS... Dating first cases of COVID-19 David L. Roberts, Jeremy S. Rossman, Ivan Jarić

I’m shocked these two guys can keep a straight face for this entire conversation.

@Sceince01

10 ай бұрын

Yup what wise they are presenting facts something g you seem to be totally allergic to. Try watching it again when you are in your senses .

@Brian-dg3gh

10 ай бұрын

@@Sceince01 I notice you’re yet to mention any of these facts specifically.

@Sceince01

10 ай бұрын

@@Brian-dg3gh 1: what a coincidence the lab to search corona viruses was built in an area where the corona virus is likely to be found but still in a city large enough where they could get virologists to work . 2: market is not even the 10 most crowded place in Wuhan . So why the earliest 172 cases were not located in more crowded area ( which would be more consistent with lab leak ) 3: why were early cases not located in areas where lab people lived ? 4: why were all early cases both market related and market unrelated were located in the market ? 5: which lineage was lab leaked ? Lineage A or lineage. - B ( since there were two lineages at the very start ) 6: two lineages is very consistent with natural ( zoonotic infection ) 7 none of the lab personnel tested positive for COVID 8 none of the bats in lab tested positive for COVID 9 WIV did not have SARS-COV-2 virus as they tried to publish all they had . 10: the nearest match WIV had was 96.2 % match and the best oft the best virologist will need 99.7% match most will need 99.9% match in 30k nucleotide virus . 10: 180 Canadian athletes among 9000 from 100 countries none had COVID as there is no flow chain from any of them . Also I total Wuhan cases are well documented .

@Sceince007

3 ай бұрын

@@Brian-dg3gh if I mention given how obviously ignorant you are would you understand it ? When you made the original comment without sorting evidence Todd you not look like an ignorant clown who made this post simply because he is a. Ignora..mus? Regardless here are the facts you are welcome to challenge 1: what a coincidence the lab to search corona viruses was built in an area where the corona virus is likely to be found but still in a city large enough where they could get virologists to work . 2: market is not even the 10 most crowded place in Wuhan . So why the earliest 172 cases were not located in more crowded area ( which would be more consistent with lab leak ) 3: why were early cases not located in areas where lab people lived ? 4: why were all early cases both market related and market unrelated were located in the market ? 5: which lineage was lab leaked ? Lineage A or lineage. - B ( since there were two lineages at the very start ) 6: two lineages is very consistent with natural ( zoonotic infection ) 7 none of the lab personnel tested positive for COVID 8 none of the bats in lab tested positive for COVID 9 WIV did not have SARS-COV-2 virus as they tried to publish all they had . 10: the nearest match WIV had was 96.2 % match and the best oft the best virologist will need 99.7% match most will need 99.9% match in 30k nucleotide virus .

@Sceince007

3 ай бұрын

@@Brian-dg3gh you ask as if facts matter to you . 1: how did it leak twice ? A and B 2: if it leaked how did it end up at animal markets both times and different animal markets 3: why did the earliest 19 cases cluster around west side of market - where the suspect animals were kept 4: why is it that the lab workers families are not among the earliest cases ? 5: if it was being worked in lab how did the furin cleavage sites survive in culture when over 3 years it’s been shown again and again that they don’t in cell culture + other changes ? 6: what was the nearest virus that the lab had that changed ? Where is your evidence that they had it ? 7: why did the initial cases not occur at 10 other more crowded places in city ? 8: why did the initial cases occur where they were supposed to if it’s animal spill over Let’s see if yoh can handle them

Credit to Vincent for even taking this on. Now Dr. Hotez needs to engage RFK Jr.

@Benson_Bear

11 ай бұрын

That's a much harder sell. Professor Racaniello has a sympatico fellow on for a chat. The other thing would be deeply confrontational and the chance for a slip-up on Hotez's part is something he would be quite rightly fearful of. His supporters also should realize this. It is a risky endeavour. I agree though it probably should be done, all things considered. But Hotez has to be very carefully prepped for the specific circumstances (not knowledge, but techniques to expect from Rogan and Kennedy)

@Ramiiam

11 ай бұрын

@@Benson_Bear You don't get to champion authoritarian policies and then refuse to debate. Hotez has been called out. Let's see what he is made of, and how his ideas fare.

@TheHunterGracchus

11 ай бұрын

@@Ramiiam He’s under no obligation to debate or even engage with a crackpot. He deserves a great deal of credit for going as far as engaging with Joe Rogan.

@Ramiiam

11 ай бұрын

@@TheHunterGracchus Glad we have you to tell us who are the crackpots and which arguments are beyond the pale.

@TheHunterGracchus

11 ай бұрын

@@Ramiiam You don’t need me. RFK Jr. is a well known crackpot. The Salon editor who ran his tripe in 2005 called it “the worst mistake of my career” and added, "I probably should have been fired….” Dan Wilson did a great series on his nonsense.

People don't really have a good idea how parts of Chinese cities could feel so underdeveloped and so underregulated. Even in the biggest and richest cities, there are plenty of places that you just don't want to go to because... how dirty and messy they are.

@Patrick_Ross

11 ай бұрын

One could hope wet markets in China are now being severely regulated but I wouldn’t count on it. There’s also the problem of wet markets in other Asian countries being breeding grounds for the next pandemic.

@aanderson2880

10 ай бұрын

Oh, for a minute I thought you were talking about Mission St. Im sorry for the poor all over the world,

I don't think enough weight is given to incentives here. Scientists are still human and the incentives for them are strongly in favor of natural spillover. I believe a more open mind would be kept if the negative implications of a lab leak weren't so dire for the scientists/governments involved. If solid evidence comes out that patients zero were actually lab workers then we can all agree it was a lab leak?

@peterginsburg2465

11 ай бұрын

The thing is, two lineages emerged from the Huanan Seafood market. That's the scientific clincher.

@Sceince007

3 ай бұрын

And so far why do you think proponents of the lab leak have had to lie and make up pt zero ? Aren’t they they the same people who desperately want to ignore facts

The most amazing “highly accurate PCR test”

@markhammerschmidt5315

11 ай бұрын

And you are a leading expert in the field? Or just a poorly informed pleb that gets their information from social media?

Why wasn’t Eddie Holmes’s biography of his time working for the NIH during the time they were working on gain of function?

@PK779able

11 ай бұрын

Not sure although Holmes did work with Wuhan Institute of Virology in 2018 identifying SARS-related coronaviruses in Southern China. Contrast his certitude on SARS-CoV-2 origins with the more measured approach of Jesse Bloom, David Relman or Francois Balloux.

@skepticalbadger

11 ай бұрын

​@@PK779ableBeing strict on the evidence isn't the same thing as supporting the lab leak. Balloux tries to be so open minded that he "rated the 'WiFi causes brain cancer'" claim as devoid of supporting evidence, rather than totally bonkers'. It's admirable in a way, but unhelpful when conveying the general probability for the public. You won't get these men to say that a lab leak is more plausible - they merely insist on saying that, in the absence of hard evidence, it's AS plausible. A position that most professionals disagree with because they are happy with the provisional conclusion of zoonotic origin and recognised that the hard evidence is lost forever.

@delfadavi5784

11 ай бұрын

@@skepticalbadger 96% similar to another virus isn’t close at all when there are only 30k bases. Humans are closer to chimpanzees than the bat virus is to its human relative.

What if the cases by the lab were suppressed / covered up?

@zstopperuno

11 ай бұрын

That kind of thing doesn't happen in China.

@TheCommono

10 ай бұрын

What if this was a stupid question? Oh wait - it is!

@Sceince01

10 ай бұрын

Cases could be covered up ? But then what happened to the chain that flowed from those lab cases ? Also two separate lab leaks at bsl 4 with lineage A and then again with B ? It makes zero sense .

@Sceince01

10 ай бұрын

@@TheCommono yup

Yes, there were two early lineages sampled re: having d614g or not and their eventual divergence was significant. But back during the time they were actually infecting animals and human animals around the market they were almost genetically identical. Calling them two separate lineages makes sense now but back then they were just one step away from each other and calling them two different spreading incidents, despite one only happening after the other, seems not fully supported by the facts.

@peterginsburg2465

11 ай бұрын

The molecular biology "is" the facts. Mutational analysis is as scientific and factual as you can get. Eddy Holmes explained it pretty well. Did you not listen to it or do you not understand what he said?

@Superkuh2

11 ай бұрын

@@peterginsburg2465 Maybe that is true but the information in this lecture is not sufficient. Can you show me the genetic differences between A and B lineages of SARS2 (sars-cov-2) in samples taken in Dec 2019 and Jan 2020? As far as I know the only difference back then was the single D614G mutation. And while the accumulated difference after that are significant, back then the difference was not large enough to call it two different emergences.

@peterginsburg2465

11 ай бұрын

You have a computer, you can look it up. Nothing I say is going to change your mind.

@Sceince007

3 ай бұрын

@@Superkuh2the dg614 happened a few months after . Mutations are two types . Consider a growing tree one branch grows and then other branches from that branch and also at the same time another branch grows from the main trunk . The two branches from main trunk are lineage A and B and very unlikely to happen in same animal . It shows at least two jumps before getting to humans . Also sars-cov-2 virus grown in culture easily looses furin sites. So it could not have come from lab .

The Chinese get low marks. They screwed the crime scene -- except for the drain which speaks volumes.

The assertion that the A and B lineage split and two seperate jumps can only occur due different people handling the animals in the wet market. The reservoir population could be an indvidual co-infected by both A and B strains? How is this the only plausible explanation in the context of the wet market envronment but a lab worker adapting coronavirus to human tissue culture under BSL-2 and exposed to many cell culture adapted variants is an implausible one?

@Sceince007

10 ай бұрын

What’s the chance that same person gets infected twice in BSL lab ? Lol you actually have to consider the odds there ( honestly ) After that what’s the chance that person infects people with A in one place and B in quite a different place ? Why did one not dominate the other ax would actually happen? Yup no body with common sense is going to fall for the comedy you posted but I do see that one joker did like your comedy. There is no dearth of jokers I suppose 😀

Unconvincing

@peterginsburg2465

11 ай бұрын

If you knew the biology, virology, and molecular biology on the subject, you'd be convinced. But, few have "any" knowledge of the subjects.

This is exactly what I hoped would be covered. Super interesting thanks guys!!

In order to understand the timing of the virus, you need to be aware of the trends in classical music in 2019 in particular, the trends in the opera houses. I know this sounds nutty, but bear with me. In 2019 the opera companies in Europe mostly, but also in the United States were all getting ready to produce Puccini‘s last opera, which is called _Turandot._ Actually, he left it unfinished, but several lesser composers have written endings for it. La Scala was getting ready to do it. Also I think the Deutsche Oper in Berlin; Covent Garden; Paris Opera; in the United States, the Metropolitan Opera was getting ready; also the Lyric Opera of Chicago and the San Francisco Opera, and even some of the small opera companies like Regina Opera in Brooklyn, which does grand opera on a small scale. The opera world is very trendy: everyone looks to see what everyone else is doing and tries to get on the biggest bandwagon. A few years back, it was the composer Meyerbeer; before that, the world rediscovered Donizetti’s more obscure pieces (such as _Poliuto.)_ Now this opera _Turandot_ is very offensive to Chinese nationals in China because it is set in Beijing, or rather, in Puccini's fantasy of what Bejing ("Pekino") was like, and it depicts them as bloodthirsty savages ruled by a sadistic tyrant. Being aware of this makes it obvious what happened: the Chinese government unleashed the virus at the end of 2019 in order to prevent the opera houses from performing this opera. And look at how well it worked! Even now that the world is getting over the pandemic and the theaters are reopening, the companies are still not going back to _Turandot._ They are doing other, easier works by Puccini such as _La Bohème_ and _Madame Butterfly._ This is why the pathology of the virus is so mild relative to what it might’ve been: Xi wasn’t trying to kill a lot of people, only to make enough people sick to shut down the opera houses and stop them from performing _Turandot._ It will be objected that the Chinese have made their peace with _Turandot:_ after all, it was performed in Beijing a few years ago. But it’s one thing to stage the opera in your own country with musicians and performers you can control, where it will make you appear sophisticated and open minded. Having it a popular world-wide trend is a different matter.

@marg716

11 ай бұрын

You had me at “I know this sounds nutty, but bear with me.” And now I have read more about Puccini than I ever would have without your comment. Thank you for that. 👏👏👏

@joefrancis759

10 ай бұрын

nicely done!

Furin is found in chimeric mice and mole rats; is it not? Chimeric mice and Mole rats are used in research labs; there you have a clue about the lab origin. The ACE2 from Palm Civet may have been added to SARS COV1( RatG13?) by somebody who then created SARS Cov2, of course.

@peterginsburg2465

11 ай бұрын

What's a chimeric mouse? You have no idea what you're talking about.

@Marco-it2mr

11 ай бұрын

Furin is found in all vertebrates, AFAIK. And ACE2 is not present in SARS-CoV2 - ACE2 is a receptor.

@sam-gb8pb

11 ай бұрын

@@peterginsburg2465 Humanized lungs, you sound like Fauci.

@peterginsburg2465

11 ай бұрын

@@sam-gb8pb How can you tell. You never heard me speak.

@Littleprinceleon

10 ай бұрын

What the heck does RaTG13 has to do with original SARS?

We need a smoking gun. Just saying the other side is wrong,without any evidence, is just wishful thinking!

What a great episode. I especially like the explanation of how pandemic occurs when there are spillovers going on all the time. All in all - A plus!

Not scientifically supperted and false, need to show proof!!!!!!

What a great podcast!

First! For comments, not views. Thanks, Vincent & Eddie for this.

This was a great interview ... mainly because it confirmed my bias! But seriously, as awesome as science is, people cannot forget that it's usually just a bunch of theories - most of which are in conflict.

@PK779able

11 ай бұрын

They should really have someone who is agnostic - Jesse Bloom or David Relman on. Holmes continues to make overconfident statements based on fragmentary and biased early case data.

@mikerothenberg163

11 ай бұрын

@@PK779able very strongly so.

Love the Rational review of the origins - I am still concerned about the potential of Gain of Function studies combined with a Lab Leak for future Pandemic potential and would love to see WHO try and increase regulation around this

@peterginsburg2465

11 ай бұрын

There are regulations for possible risky experiments. That was discussed in last weeks TWiV.

@ColonelFredPuntridge

11 ай бұрын

If you're gonna worry about something connected to this, worry not about a lab leak, but about the possibility that some suicidal apocalypse-minded weirdo with too much money might engineer a worse form of the virus. More and more variants are showing up with non-functional mutant ORF8. (This was written up in a popular article in _The Atlantic_ recently.) That means a bad-guy could replace ORF8 with any gene he wants and still get infectious, viable virus, which would cause all the symptoms of COVID _and_ cause infected cells to make the protein whose gene he inserted in place of ORF8. This is not new: someone engineered a variant of the first SARS virus which includes a gene for Green Fluorescent Protein, which, in addition to causing the ordinary symptoms, also makes infected cells glow green under UV light. That's not particularly scary, but in SARS-CoV-2, ORF8 is long enough to encode a protein with more than 120 amino acids. It's depressingly easy to imagine proteins that size or smaller which you would NOT want your cells making! Toxic molecules, or, antigenic molecules which would cause dreadful autoimmune diseases. The sci-fi story-plot of a genetically engineered pathogen is as old as the sci-fi genre itself (remember Frank Herbert's novel _The White Plague_ ???) but now we have a simple flow-chart recipe. _That_ is something to worry about.

@ColonelFredPuntridge

11 ай бұрын

@@ElectronDonor Real life has become so terrifying and so surprising that there is no longer any point in writing fiction.

@georgeharrison6022

11 ай бұрын

Why not leave it to the CDC. why bring the WHO into this

@ColonelFredPuntridge

11 ай бұрын

@@georgeharrison6022 WHO has greater international clout

Eddie Holmes is a guy who initially believed it came from the lab and then reversed his position without any explanation. I give Eddie Homes and Vincent Racaniello a grade of A for their ability to deliver a bunch of utter BULLSHIT couched in very persuasive scientific jargon.

@peterginsburg2465

11 ай бұрын

When did Eddie Holmes believe it came from the lab? If you don't understand the jargon, then you have no comprehension of what was discussed in the episode. If you don't understand, how can you conclude they're talking BS. Learn some virology and microbiology then you'll understand.

@sam-gb8pb

11 ай бұрын

@@peterginsburg2465 Why are you continually spreading false information? Eddie did state it is unnatural before he changed his mind, the leaked emails from Fauci are conclusive proof, there is no debate on this, same with Kristian Anderson and many others, all silenced by Fauci, Daszak etc.

@zstopperuno

11 ай бұрын

Holmes contacted Fauci in late Jan 2019 and expressed the view that the virus appeared to have been laboratory manipulated. FOIA requests on Fauci's email establish this as a fact.

This episode serves as an exceptional lesson on virus evolution, providing valuable insights into the essence of scientific investigations. It allows individuals who may lean towards supporting conspiracy theories to broaden their understanding and gain knowledge from the content presented. Hopefully, watching and engaging with this episode will enable them to learn and appreciate the significance of scientific inquiry.

@youtune1323

11 ай бұрын

Thanks for your condescension.

I almost think you cannot do enough of these analyses. Eventually, the truth and sanity will get out, but it will take a saturation effort. I mean, RFK Jr is tireless, so must science be. Thanks very much!

@jerryhenderson8923

10 ай бұрын

What might be the bias of people who work in research facilities to protect research facilities?

@briancase6180

10 ай бұрын

@@jerryhenderson8923 of course they have biases. That's why you get information from a spectrum of experts. RFK Jr is NOT an expert. The sources available here ARE experts. I think your point, though valid in a way, is irrelevant here. Just consider the range of experts that have appeared on TWiV since the beginning of the pandemic. You cannot filter that many for fidelity to a point of view. And in fact, there has been a range of opinions and findings here.

Didn't the meta data also show the presence of Panda? Just as well the curation of the 'messy' data was undertaken before being supplied. Dr Holmes seems to have a lot of faith in the information provided.

It was a frozen fish "wet" market.

the missing link😂😂😂

Loved this program!

Excellent interview!!!

Just brilliant!

No biaz

Vincent , you have got dark hair ! 33:10

Thank you. Just wonderful to hear two sensible scientists discussing this divisive subject matter.

IIUC there is or was a WIV vivisection facility less than 200 yards from the wet market. The WIV contracted out some functions and procedures to less hardened facilities such as this. Is this not true? The latest reporting from Taibi, Schellenberger, et al is that there were cases of infection a few months earlier among WIV staff, than any detected in the general civilian population. Is this not correct? They claim to have identified patient zero. Are they mistaken? No host reservoir for sars2 has been found, after three years of searching high and low. The fact that several mammalian species can contract sars2 from humans, and have since become reservoir species means little. Cats, deer, and several species have been shown to be vulnerable to infection from humans. The critical unanswered question is where is the host animal reservoir before the outbreak in Wuhan, or contemporary with it? It is undisputed that the WIV was vivisecting horse shoe bats through contracted labs. It is undisputed that the WIV redesigned their owned facilities to accommodate a bat vivarium, after they violated the terms of their partnership with the French who oversaw the construction of the WIV level 4 facility. It is undisputed that the WIV was engaged in gain of function research on corona viruses collected from horse shoe bats in the wild. These correlations do not constitute proof of anything causal, but they cannot be dismissed as nothing either, regardless of how the host and guest feel about them. These are uncomfortable correlations. But to dismiss them on the basis of feelings of discomfort is not a rigorous stance to take. No one claims to have ever seen bats for sale at the wet market in Wuhan. There are no horseshoe bat caves in Hubei Province, and there is no culinary tradition of eating bats in that province. But, the WIV did have over 3,000 samples of virus collected from all over SE Asia in their freezers, including corona virus samples from Horse shoe bat caves 600km from Wuhan. So, how likely is it that some wild animal could have come into contact with a horse shoe bat carrying a virus and subsequently been transported over 600km to be sold for food in a wet market in Wuhan? It is possible, but logistically highly improbable. Presumably, the wet market would have record of all of the vendors who sold out of that wet market, and those vendors would have records of who they purchased wholesale from. To imagine that the CCP investigators did not scour such records is incredible; almost as incredible as the argument that the animals were cleared out of the wet market a full month before it was closed due to incompetence. That chain of events is difficult to ascribe to ordinary incompetence. It is extraordinary. What explains the peculiar furin cleavage site mechanism of infection for sars2? That is not such a great mechanism for civets or raccoon dogs, is it? But for human beings it is a huge vulnerability that these other animals do not share. Why would this characteristic have developed in sars2. It certainly did not in sars1, or any other zoonotic virus ever discovered. This virus is very peculiar and unique in this regard. PCR tests of surface samples taken months later are utterly meaningless. It is highly unlikely that we will ever know the origins of sars2. But, we are all on notice that there are peculiarities in China that make it a virological engine of innovation. We engage with the CCP on a broad scale in commerce, particularly agriculture, at our risk. Caveat Emptor. Climate Change is not a driver here, unbridled and self regulating finance capitalism is the driver. Who owns the largest factory pig farming corporation in the USA? Smithfield was acquired by a Chinese agricultural concern a few years ago. Factory farming is a huge vector just waiting to be exploited. Why are level 4 biolabs constructed in major population centers to begin with? Why aren't such facilities built in sparsely populated hinterlands? Does anyone actually believe that such labs can never leak? Far better to build them in Mongolia or a one stoplight town in North Dakota than in Wuhan or in Chapel Hill, or Fort Dietrich or Toronto.

@personzorz

11 ай бұрын

This reporting that you are referring to is garbage

@kkjhn41

11 ай бұрын

Matt Taibbi and Michael Schellenberger are they not correct, are they mistaken? Are you joking?

@ivermec-tin666

11 ай бұрын

@@kkjhn41 Imagine that these two questions are serious. Sometimes journalists get it right. Sometimes ventriloquist dummies convey wisdom. Now, try again.

@WillNewcomb

11 ай бұрын

No! The WIV is 17 miles away (Snopes). The nearby facility is NOT part of WIV. "The Wuhan Institute of Virology is not 400 meters away from the Huanan seafood market. It is roughly 26,912 meters (or about 17 miles) away. The confusion stems from a so-called "scientific paper" (self-published in February 2020 on the academic networking site Research Gate with no peer review) that asserted with deeply flawed reasoning that "Wuhan Disease Prevention and Control Center" was involved in bat coronavirus research. The authors of that paper pointed to a building identified on Google Maps as the "Wuhan Jianghan Disease Prevention and Control Center" in close proximity to the market as a potential lab-derived source of the COVID-19 pandemic."

@PK779able

11 ай бұрын

1. Remember scientists commute - Wuhan Institute of Virology was serviced by Line 2 of the Metro System which runs through Hankou station, a 15 minute walk to the Huanan seafood market. 2. The index case is unknown. 3. There were early superspreader events in wet markets at Beijing and Singapore (Xinfadi and Jurong). 4. The closest matches to SARS-CoV-2 are found in Yunnan and Laos. Both areas the Wuhan Institute of Virology sampled. 5. The NIH terminated WIV's subaward last year for continued refusal to share their SARS-related bat coronavirus records.

Thank you very informative

….because even Wikipedia is disclosing that Holme’s work has been funded by NIH and Wellcome Trust….thanks for the balanced reporting here Eddie. will Vincent have on Jeffrey Sach’s also?

@Sceince01

3 ай бұрын

He is not creating facts only reporting . Did you want him to lie ?

Here's my summary of Eddie's argument: An un-specified species of animal through the illegal wildlife trade infected people at a single one of the thousands of wetmarkets in China, co-incidentally the one in geographic proximity to a lab that was working with SARS-type coronaviruses, and then all evidence of the virus in that species vanished without a trace. In support of his argument Eddie explains that SARS-1 played out in a similar fashion, except in that case an intermediary host species was identified, and there were multiple points of outbreak, and there was geographic proximity to where these viruses reside in bats, and there was no nearby lab working with SARS-type coronaviruses. Does this sound like a scientific rationale to anyone?

@petercollingwood522

10 ай бұрын

Sounds like an absolute crock.

@Marco-it2mr

10 ай бұрын

"except in that case an intermediary host species was identified," Nope, it was inferred, because a significant proportion (some 33%) of the known first cases were animal traders or food handlers, and later(!) several infected species were found, with a larger proportion of palm civets. But that was in May 2003, well after it had all started. Note that a later paper pointed out no intermediary was necessary, all the building blocks for SARS1 were present in bats. "and there were multiple points of outbreak" First discovered in Guangdong - rather important, as I will get back to. Importantly, SARS1 is significantly less infectious than SARS-CoV2, meaning it can go 'unnoticed' for a much longer time, and thus also can lead to apparent 'multiple points of outbreak'. You do not consider a new virus until you have several ill people with rather special symptoms, and/or several patients who are connected. For SARS-CoV2, the main warning sign was the symptoms *looking like SARS.* That is, there was an early warning sign, meaning those early cases were actually also really detected earlier. That said, it is interesting how you ignore the two lineages for SARS-CoV2. "and there was geographic proximity to where these viruses reside in bats," Ehm....the bats containing these SARS-like viruses were found in Yunnan, the outbreak was primarily discovered in Gaungdong. You might want to grab a map and see the distance between these two locations: some 1,000 km. Why no outbreak first in Yunnan? Note, there are quite reasonable explanations for this, and some hints can be found in how Omicron developed out of the original Wuhan strain. "Does this sound like a scientific rationale to anyone?" See above, why did SARS1 start in Gaungdong, not Yunnan?

@zstopperuno

10 ай бұрын

@@Marco-it2mr Was there a lab in Guangzhou that was working with SARS-type coronaviruses?

@Marco-it2mr

10 ай бұрын

@@zstopperuno No, there was not.

@Sceince01

2 ай бұрын

Typical lab leaker with complete misrepresentation of facts . How likely is that a virus that can not grow in cultures ( in labs ) and maintain the ability to infect humans leaked twice ( lineage A and B ) and went straight to a different market each time ignoring all the other busier places in the city ? This is just one point so far . I have not had lab leaked make sense of anything at all . Why is inability to think critically so common among lab leakers ?

Highly doubt it, I don't think so, probably not, could of happened, I don't believe 🤔 Doesn't sound like you have actual evidence just feelings.

@Sceince007

3 ай бұрын

Thank you for admission that you are dumb to understand a thing they said

Strewpzzz! What do you know about Peter Daszak?

very informative. thanks.

He is very sure it is not from the lab but has no evidence it came from the market.

@peterginsburg2465

11 ай бұрын

Apparently, you didn't listen to the episode.

Bravo Eddie!!! So clear! A pleasure to listen to! 🎶

Wonder WHO the Expert WAS

The market is most likely because it's too coincidental. Ok.

Seven months later, with all the information that’s come out in the interim, how’s this holding up? It’s not a matter of these two “should” have know better, but they actually did know better. Disingenuous stooges. I once had respect for Vincent Racaniello. No more. You shall know them by their fruits. Can’t imagine this comment will last long before being deleted to support the illusion of unanimity…

@Sceince007

3 ай бұрын

Is it not even more clear that virus is zoonotic ? Why is that those going with lab leak have to resort to lying and doing away with integrity to site that ? Where is your evidence for what you are saying or are you all those cheapsters Eddie mentions ?

@Sceince007

3 ай бұрын

To us it does not matter when the clueless and the ignorant don’t respect him . D PO call when they have zero evidence for the BS they odd . It just makes us laugh at their ignorance 😃

28:00 "I think bat viruses don't normally have intermediate hosts". Wha? Maybe you meant "furin cleavage sites", Eddie? Please slow down.

@roncarlin3209

11 ай бұрын

20:55 You've nailed it Eddie, OZ had very few cases of the deadly variants before Omicron, because international isolation was effective. Dan Andrews, however, still thinks he saved Melbourne with his draconian lockdowns, which actually had no effect.

@Sceince01

11 ай бұрын

@@roncarlin3209 lol so you wish Australia should have allowed more to die ? Are you not done making absolutely ridiculous and dumb posts ?

but wait... I thought they never found the "market" animal that supposedly tested positive... (I believe the intermediate animal was a lab rat)

Bayesian probability suggests the lab is the answer, not nature.

I do not think the warp speed helped the mafia to produce the poke. I think they had it ready in advance.

Amazing adaptation picking up HIV gene

@ninjafun4347

11 ай бұрын

Wander who the EXPERT IS

@FerventRebutter

11 ай бұрын

@@ninjafun4347 The genes that are located in eukaryotes, prokaryotes and viruses alike, correct? The spike glycoprotein's four motifs that I presume you are referring to share far greater homology with eukaryotes than viruses. Motifs 3 and 4 were highly dissimilar to HIV-1 when compared to mammals. I'm more than willing to engage with someone with an alternative view of the virus's aetiology, I'm no fan of cencorship, but not something so readily confutable.

17:15 Both lineages A and B being found in the market supports the origin being from outside, surely? Multiple zoonotic spillovers? Nah. Unlikely that 2 WIV employees carrying separate lineages went to the market? It's not unusual for coworkers to shop at the same places. And the spread to the market may not have been WIV staff, but could have been their family members, or hospital contacts. This is all just too murky, we will never know. It's time to stop the debate, it's leading nowhere.

@personzorz

11 ай бұрын

If you actually read the papers in question, you will see that given the epidemiological properties of this virus the odds of two long enough chains to generate the differences without any intermediate lineages is extremely low, while this is precisely the sort of thing that happened with SARS classic

@roncarlin3209

11 ай бұрын

​@@sallybrookner4158Nah. The split more likely happened before it reached the market. Zoonotic spillovers are NOT rare, that is conceded, but the mutation from zoonotic infection to human-to-human spread after infection is extremely rare, and extremely unlikely. No, the probability favors origin from outside the market, I'm afraid.

@personzorz

11 ай бұрын

@@roncarlin3209 Mutations were not required for the jump from animal to human, that's the point. It was already capable, by chance

@Sceince01

11 ай бұрын

It’s not murky at all unless you purposefully and disingenuously manage to confuse yourself . If one person got infected from 1 lineage what made them not take pre cautions and infect a second person with another lineage two weeks later. You are funny

@Sceince01

11 ай бұрын

@@roncarlin3209outside the market and that’s why it spread to market ? That’ clearly is the most illogical Al explanation yet . Outside market that’s why but market related and unrelated cases occurred around market. You must have explained to yourself clearly why it did not occur at 10 most crowded places ? Also why did it not occur near where lab workers worked ? Or did you not think it through ?

Hope Eddie didnt have anything sticking to his fingers when we went to the market himself and saw the racoon dogs and civets.

Thè most likely hypothesis is now lab leak (unnoticed because there were only 3 patients), followed by a visit of a c19+ WIV employee to the Hunan seafood market, where there were enough people to push R0 > 1, which made the market the epicentre of the exponentail outbreak, but not proven to be patient 0. Eddie is being totally misled by the presence of raccoon dogs, because of his fixation with SARS1. We've now reached the point where we will never know the truth, so it's time to stop the debate.

@personzorz

11 ай бұрын

Reconsider your information sources

@Sceince01

11 ай бұрын

It is still the least likely hypothesis not the most likely . 1: those three patients were discussed on COVID 2 years back . They just had a viral illness not COVID . Also you for got about the two lineages - which lineage did they spread ? If they were that infectious why did it spread to market and even unrelated market cases to be around market but not to hospital ? What happened to the other lineage , lineage A ?

@PK779able

11 ай бұрын

Holmes relies on what David Relman describes as "hopelessly impoverished" early case data. The reality is the index case is unknown, there is a clear ascertainment bias in the retrospectively recorded cases and the evidence for lineage A in the market rests on N = 1 sample on a glove out of 1380 samples tested on 1 Jan 2020. It's very weak evidence. The location in Wuhan, sampling history (Yunnan and Laos), research proposals (spillover studies on SARS-related bat coronaviruses and adding an FCS) is consistent with lab origin.

@PK779able

11 ай бұрын

​@@Sceince01the location, sampling history (nearest relatives are in Yunnan and Laos where WIV sampled), research proposals (spillover studies on SARS-related bat coronaviruses, hACE2 binding with synthetic recombinant bat coronaviruses, adding furin cleavage sites to novel SrCVs), refusal to share these records with WHO or the NIH who terminated their sub award last year for this refusal. All consistent with lab origin. The evidence for zoonotic spillover rests on what David Relman described as "hopelessly impoverished" early case data. A lot of potential missing early cases. The evidence for lineage A in the market is based on N =1 sample from a glove tested on 1 January 2020 out of 1380 environmental samples. All the early market cases were lineage B. It's fairly tenuous evidence. That said, a definitive answer is unlikely unless a whistleblower emerges as with Sverdlovsk.

@Sceince01

11 ай бұрын

@@PK779able o it’s not consistent with lab origins as the evidence of lineage in market is not important but just mere presence of it ? Which later spread to Africa ) goes against lab origins Ali v with how early cases were centered around market

"...simple theory should tell you, that...the first case should be near the lab.. " Not so simple isn't it?

@barbaradowell1285

11 ай бұрын

No, it's not...because you need to account for the 1 to 5 day delay from when you inhaled enough virus to cause infection, and when your symptoms actually appear (and you are infectious). You also need to realize that a large proportion, perhaps 40%, of infected humans were asymptomatic after becoming infected. Plus, lab workers at WIV had buses to take them to residential apartment complexes in downtown Wuhan; and they could also take one rail transport line from the distant WIV facility to a station located only a few blocks from the infamous Huanan Seafood Market. And it is distinctly possible that the Lab Leak did't happen at WIV, and occurred instead at the Wuhan Office of China's CDC - which is located a few blocks from Huanan Market. The Wuhan CCDC also collected and performed research on bat coronaviruses. It's noteworthy that the Wuhan CCDC moved their entire office/lab to their new location near Huanan Market - completing that move on 7 Dec 2019!

@peterginsburg2465

11 ай бұрын

@@barbaradowell1285 And Bigfoot also needs to be considered as a superspreader.

@samstamos427

11 ай бұрын

@@barbaradowell1285 wow, interesting..

Regarding humans infecting pigs, er... so what, it's not pigs we have a problem with in terms of hospital capacity during a pandemic what's with the anthropomorphism 'wearing masks' nonsense are you plugging the film Babe?

Always the same people with the same opinion, bring in someone with a diverse view, sorry, but not convincing at all.

great explanation of the origins

isn’t this guy a co-author the Proximal Origin Paper? one has to wonder about the massive deception and conflicts-of-interest.

@jarrettthomas4865

10 ай бұрын

Yea he’s definitely with the $cience

Great interview! First thought, "oh no not another SARS-CoV-2 show" but this is clear, interesting and another warning call for the next pandemic.

No doubt your BEST podcast ever. Thank you 😊

4kms from lab to market.

@Marco-it2mr

10 ай бұрын

Which lab? Not the WIV - that's more like 16 km away.

@christianpatton142

10 ай бұрын

@@Marco-it2mr well this guy is saying 35km? So who is right?

@Marco-it2mr

10 ай бұрын

@@christianpatton142 Well, both are right, actually. The WIV has two locations. The BSL4 is, AFAIK, at the larger distance, the distance I gave is for the other (and oldest) location.

@MessiahNonEst

10 ай бұрын

900 Miles to the nearest horseshoe bat colony in Yunnan. But hey if you're a bat that's got a date with a Pangolin, a snake and a coondog an 1800 mile round trip in a night is well worth it, that kind of how's your father is to great an opportunity to pass by.

@Marco-it2mr

10 ай бұрын

@@MessiahNonEst SARS1 was first found some 600 miles away from the caves where these bats are found...