Recessions are an unavoidable part of the economic cycle; all you can do is prepare for them and plan accordingly. I graduated into a slump (2009). My first job after graduating from college was as an aerial acrobat on cruise ships. Today, I work as a VP for a global corporation, own three rental properties, invest in stocks and businesses, run my own company, and have increased my net worth by $500k in the last four years.

@berniceburgos-

13 күн бұрын

It's a delicate season now, so you can do little or nothing on your own. Hence I will suggest you get yourself a professional that can provide you with entry and exit points on the securities you focus on.

@Jersderakerguoe

13 күн бұрын

It's often true that people underestimate the importance of financial advisors until they feel the negative effects of emotional decision-making. I remember a few summers ago, after a tough divorce, when I needed a boost for my struggling business. I researched and found a licensed advisor who diligently helped grow my reserves despite inflation. Consequently, my reserves increased from $275k to around $750k.

@Hectorkante

13 күн бұрын

incredible, a fantastic start to financial independence! How can I contact your FA.

@Jersderakerguoe

13 күн бұрын

Finding financial advisors like Melissa Terri Swayne who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.

@jones9-

13 күн бұрын

I just checked her out on google and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.

Transfer of wealth usually occur during market crash, so the more stocks drop, the more I buy, in the meanwhile I'm just focused on making better investments and earning more as recession fear increases, apparently there are strategies to 3x gains in this present market cos I read of someone that pulled a profit of $350k within 6months, and it would really help if you could make a video covering these strategies.

@PatrickFitzgerald-cx6io

19 күн бұрын

Understanding personal finances and investing will most likely lead to greater financial independence. By being knowledgeable about money and investing, individuals can make informed decisions about how to save, spend, and invest their money or you could hire a financial expert.

@KaurKhangura

19 күн бұрын

Yeah, financial advisors could make a lot of difference, particularly in a market such as this. Stocks are pretty unstable at the moment, but if you do the right math, you should be just fine. Bloomberg and other finance media have been recording cases of folks gaining over 250k just in a matter of weeks/couple months, so I think there are a lot of wealth transfer in this downtime if you know where to look. I have been using an FA since 2020, and I return at least $30k ROI, and this does not include capital gain.

@foden700

19 күн бұрын

Would you mind telling me how to contact this specific coach using their service? You seem to have the solution, as opposed to the rest of us.

@KaurKhangura

19 күн бұрын

I've shuffled through investment coaches and yes, they can be positively impactful to an individual's portfolio, but do your due diligence to find a coach with grit, one that withstood the 08' crash. For me, ‘’Marisa Michelle Litwinsky’’ turned out to be better and smarter than all the advisors I ever worked with till date, I’ve never met anyone with as much conviction.

@foden700

19 күн бұрын

Thanks, I just googled her and I'm really impressed with her credentials; I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get.

Recession is often the result of external factors, and it appears that the United States is losing its grip as a federal reserve currency. With a decreasing ability to control inflation and a reduction in stocks and oil trading, it seems that a new multilateral world order is on the horizon.

@YearousMona

3 ай бұрын

The pathway to substantial returns doesn't solely rely on stocks with significant movements. Instead, it revolves around effectively managing risk relative to reward. By appropriately sizing your positions and capitalising on your advantage repeatedly, you can progressively work towards achieving your financial goals. This principle applies across various investment approaches, whether it be long-term investing or day trading.

@thomasbetts01

3 ай бұрын

Amazing! I hope it's okay to inquire if you're still collaborating with the same fiduciary and how I can get in touch with them?

@derrickholfman

3 ай бұрын

Wonderful! I hope it's acceptable to ask whether you and the fiduciary are still working together, as well as how I might contact them.

@thomasbetts01

3 ай бұрын

@@derrickholfman Selecting an advisor at the right time is a very personal choice. I seek advice from Vivian Carol Gioia in order to reach my development objectives and steer clear of blunders; she is highly qualified and her website is freely accessible.

@thomasbetts01

3 ай бұрын

The decision on when to pick an Adviser is a very personal one. I take guidance from Vivian Carol Gioia to meet my growth goals and avoid mistakes, she's well-qualified and her page can be easily found on the net.

*Successful people don't become that way overnight. What most people see as wealth, a great career, purpose is the result of hard work. 🤑🤑*

@oliverreyes2396

3 ай бұрын

Well I must say people are scared because there are so many unprofessional brokers out there.

@VegaJordi-fr7su

3 ай бұрын

I think I'm blessed if not I wouldn't have met someone who is as spectacular as expert Faith Reece

@AntoniaLopez-jj5tw

3 ай бұрын

Wow.... She has really made good name for herself, she's also my account manager

@MarthaJames-jk8qx

3 ай бұрын

Since meeting Expert Faith, I now agree that with an expert managing your portfolio, the rate of profit is high, with less risk.

@CollinsAdamski

3 ай бұрын

I agree with you. I'm not here to converse for her but to testify just for what I'm sure of, she's trust worthy and best option ever seen..

Calling a recession these days seems to be held back by politics. Nobody wants to be in charge when it hits.

@deseosuho

5 ай бұрын

Yeah - it actually seems plausible that enough massaging of data and gaslighting might push the day of reckoning past November. Looking at all the trends and FRED data, Q2-Q3 2024 seems the most likely point for that unemployment spike that accompanies every recession, but it hasn't cracked yet, so hard to tell.

@DrDime_

5 ай бұрын

Bingo. Current administration is probably the most criminal of all time. They are doing something behind the scenes. Most likely illegal. To make sure it happens after they lose the election. Because they will lose and they know it.

@calstanke6170

5 ай бұрын

If trump wins they are going to dump the economy on his watch.

@XIIchiron78

5 ай бұрын

Funny part is that the longer we string it out by playing various games the worse it'll eventually be because our options will be exhausted with no fix to the underlying problems.

@aleaiactaest8354

5 ай бұрын

Just run a 7-8% budget deficit and economy keeps chucking along...🚞

You've been predicting an imminent recession for like 3 years (at least).

@BradleyBishop

4 ай бұрын

I think the video is sound. Generally speaking, however, I think you're right. We've been hearing "recession" (except it's not -white house) for a good number of years. 2008 was bad. Name brand restaurants closing up on the side of the road bad (McDonald's, KFC, Waffle House, etc.). You could pull off an exit and find that there's literally no place to grab a sandwich. I hadn't seen that before in my lifetime. What we're in right now is different. Never before had the government shut down everything for a year plus. (and, if we learned anything from that: never again). At the same time you have job opening signs everywhere but no one seems to want to work. Inflation is bad - we all see that (except the white house), but that's what you get for paying people to be home and do nothing for several years - the loss in the value of currency. At the same time, interest rates have gone up, we've experienced supply change issues, some of this is best seen at the car dealers with the roller coaster they're on: - everyone stay home (car sales go down) - car production goes down - dwindling / almost no cars on the lot - dealers take advantage (not saying they're wrong) and start adding dealer markups to the tune of $5-10+K. - car lots start filling back up. - car sales are down further - car lots are overflowing and now dealers are paying interest on cars they can't sell - somewhere in there manufacturers raised MSRP - "because" (I get keeping with inflation but a good number of them are well over that figure) It's pretty well screwed now. With higher interest rates people can't afford the car hey once could and now that car is $30K more. Same bit with housing. If you were thinking about buying, now it's rougher because the interest rates are up. All of that should put a drag on the economy... Still... I see people eating out, regularly, and doing things and I think this may be part of the COVID nonsense. Essentially I think people are in the "I've already hunkered down for 1+ years (depending on where you live). I'm done with that." I just think we're in unprecedented waters right now and it's not quite like the clockwork picture painted in the video or what people normally expect.

Eric is one of the analyst that I have been following for sometime and who has not changed his tune about recession. It takes a lot of conviction to stick with your analysis, and for Eric this comes easy as he is thorough and deeply analytical. Deep respect.

@deseosuho

5 ай бұрын

He made a "recession somewhere between June 2023 and June 2024" call on Adam Taggart's show in May 2023, I believe. And that prediction still seems plausible to me.

@bc41

5 ай бұрын

so I am a layman and don't know economic. but reading the graph, isn't it saying we are already in a recession? and start to recover? even it doesn't tell the magnitude. what am I readying wrong?

@Mrwatson185

5 ай бұрын

Dude is consistently wrong I gotta give credit to his ability to find another correlation to predict the next recession. Michael Burry would be proud..

@DirkAndDestroy

5 ай бұрын

Has he predicted anything correctly yet?

@Youknowwhatscoming

5 ай бұрын

@@Mrwatson185just becos ponzi scheme is still going on and beyond his control doesn’t mean he is wrong. He doesn’t control govt or fed. But this Ponzi scheme will end.

A 6-minute _Masterpiece!_ Compelling. Intuitive. Engaging. Graphically brilliant.

@charged-proton

5 ай бұрын

This man has been predicting a recession for 2 years now while we keep blowing past GDP and unemployment estimates. Just because someone presents something with pretty charts doesn't make it correct. It's just wishful bear porn.

@user-hc4hk5bs8l

5 ай бұрын

Yeah I love how he used the thumbnail with the current year and the zig zags with black and red! No one is doing that thumbnail graph these days! Stoked for the 2025 version!

I'm considering a review of my $1million portfolio allocations, particularly in light of the pause in interest rate hikes. I'm eyeing some high-risk, high-reward opportunities. Crypto and emerging markets seem intriguing. Anyone else exploring these?

@PotBellyPete69

4 ай бұрын

Accurate asset allocation is crucial, and some individuals use hedging strategies or allocate part of their portfolio to defensive assets for market downturns. Expert guidance is vital for achieving this. This approach has helped me stay financially secure for over five years, yielding nearly $1M in returns on investments.

@judynewsom1902

4 ай бұрын

How can I reach this adviser of yours? because I'm seeking for a more effective investment approach on my portfolio.

@DanielPanuzi

4 ай бұрын

Please can you leave the info of your lnvestment advsor here? I’m in dire need for one

@PotBellyPete69

4 ай бұрын

“Vivian Louise Dehoff’’ You can easily look her up, she has years of financiaI market experience.

@PotBellyPete69

4 ай бұрын

Her name is ''Vivian Louise Dehoff'. One of the finest portfolio managers in the field. She's widely recognized; you should take a look at her work.

With the current amount of government spending it is difficult to fall into a recession, once that stops, a recession will occur. If the government does not stop spending and going into debt, a default or hyperinflation is inevitable.

@Fe22234

5 ай бұрын

Private investment has also increased we have record investment in manufacturing right now in the United States.

@bannistervoid

5 ай бұрын

Excellent point sir. Your second sentence is dead on and I agree 100%. The only problem I see with your first sentence is that the Fed has raised interest rates so fast that the effects of this have yet to truly hit home with corporate earnings. By the time the economic indicators contract (which should happen sometime this spring/summer) it will be too late for the Fed to react. It's no coincidence that in reality every recession starts when rates start FALLING, contrary to what everyone thinks and what's supposed to happen. Bond yields have plummeted in the last 2 months, which I believe is a warning sign of a bear market but is being interpreted as the exact opposite. The only tool left for the Fed will be another round of stimulus which will send the M2 skyrocketing and will trigger the type of inflation we saw in the 70's. So to summarize, the hyperinflation you refer to as "inevitable" may be much closer than we think. Inflation is the killer of capitalism, just look at Argentina, Venezuela, Greece, and the Weimar republic of Germany in the 1920's. The only way to avoid this is for the Fed to cut off the spending and let the stock market regulate itself by crashing like it was supposed to in 2008 and 2020.

@jamesallen7543

5 ай бұрын

There are multiple economies in Europe that are spending more as a % of GDP than the US is, and they’re already in recession.

I feel investors should be focusing on under-the-radar stocks, and considering the current rollercoaster nature of the stock market, Because 35% of my $270k portfolio comprises of plummeting stocks which were once revered and i don't know where to go here out of devastation.

@dianarabbanii2

4 ай бұрын

Safest approach is to diversify investments. By spreading investments across different asset classes, like bonds, real estate, and international stocks, they can reduce the impact of a market meltdown. its important to seek the guidance of an expert

@EmiliaAbelard

4 ай бұрын

A lot of folks downplay the role of advlsors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to $850k.

@naomigonzales9663

4 ай бұрын

How can I participate in this? I sincerely aspire to establish a secure financlal future and am eager to participate. Who is the driving force behind your success?

@EmiliaAbelard

4 ай бұрын

Marina Carolina Nice is the licensed fiduciary I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment..

@scottjuarez9549

4 ай бұрын

She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran an online search on her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.

Hit 200k today. Thank you for all the knowledge and nuggets you had thrown my way over the last months. Started with 14k in last month 2023.

@Lizparzen

5 ай бұрын

I'm 37 and have been looking for ways to be successful, please how??

@Austin1Reed

5 ай бұрын

Woah for real? I'm so excited. Rebecca Hickman strategy has normalised winning trades for me also. and it's a huge milestone for me looking back to how it all started

@Brayan.769

5 ай бұрын

she's mostly on Telegrams, using the user name

@Markiplier987

5 ай бұрын

You work for 40yrs to have $1m in your retirement, Meanwhile some people are putting just $10k in a meme coin for just few months sometimes lesser and now they are multi millionaires. I pray that anyone who reads this will be successful in life ✊🏻❤

You’re only the second source I’ve found relating LEI indicators to recessions. I’ve always wondered why no one else talks about it as an indicator. Great video!

@mateostyle

5 ай бұрын

Found it - was “Pit Bull” by Martin Schwartz read about 10 years ago (to put it in perspective how long it’s been since I ran across the 2nd source discussing the LEI!). Was one of the biggest nuggets from the book I took and has helped immensely. Began moving out of long positions earlier in the year and trade only very short term when there is a very compelling TA chart.

@vishnu2699

5 ай бұрын

Because everyone is still in Vegas, on a cruise, in the Hawaii, Caribbean etc with a 2-3% mortgage rate. So this time it is different.

@AyeBeeG

5 ай бұрын

@@vishnu2699or they’re up 200% in 6 months on their crypto portfolio

@wayward03

5 ай бұрын

​@@vishnu2699That's probably very true, however CC debt is through the roof, most likely because people can't use their home as a piggy bank via cash out refis. And car repos are going nuts, also lending evidence to a recession coming.

I'm getting back into the stock market after staying on the sidelines for some years. Right now i have $2 million from the sale of my airbnb properties and i am thinking about doing a 70/30 stocks bond ratio. What are your thoughts on that?

@roberttaylor662

5 ай бұрын

While 2 million $$ might seem a lot, one wrong move could significantly erode it. Therefore, be super careful how and where you invest. Best to diversify while keeping 70-80% of it in safe investments. Also with your budget i'd suggest you consider financial advisory.

@dogmom-pt5we

5 ай бұрын

Had a good run during my first year in the fin-market, I assumed I had a hang on it. However, things changed during the pandemic, and I needed to diversify into safe assets, so I approached a coach who devised a structure that matched my annual goal of 45%

@arthurworld9768

5 ай бұрын

@@dogmom-pt5we Who is the coach that advises you? I'm in urgent need of one; my stock portfolio is still in the red, even though there was an early boost this year.

@dogmom-pt5we

5 ай бұрын

Monica Amanda McClure is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.

@arthurworld9768

5 ай бұрын

Thanks for sharing. I curiously searched for her full name and her website popped up after scrolling a bit. I looked through her credentials and did my due diligence before contacting her. Once again many thanks.

I was advised to diversify my portfolio among several assets such as stocks and bonds since this can protect my portfolio for retirement. I'm seeking to invest $200K across markets but don't know where to start.

@Tonyham198

5 ай бұрын

The professionals presently control the market since they not only have the essential business strategy but also have access to inside information that the general public is not aware of.

@yeslahykcim

5 ай бұрын

I agree, having a brokerage advisor for investing is genius! Amidst the financial crisis in 2008, I was really having investing nightmare prior touching base with a advisor. In a nutshell, i've accrued over $2m with the help of my advisor from an initial $350k investment.

@Jadechurch-ql3do

5 ай бұрын

Please can you leave the info of your lnvestment advsor here? I’m in dire need for one

@yeslahykcim

5 ай бұрын

“Leila Simoes Pinto’’ You can easily look her up, she has years of financiaI market experience.

@codeblue11

5 ай бұрын

Thank you for this Pointer. It was easy to find your handler, She seems very proficient and flexible. I booked a call session with her.

David Rosenberg, ‘just because it’s December and hasn’t snowed, doesn’t mean winter has been called off’

I want to start investing but don't know where to begin. Any advice or contacts for help?

@alicedaniels

5 ай бұрын

It's wise to seek professional guidance when building a strong financial portfolio due to its complexity

@charlottescott6315

5 ай бұрын

Talking to financial advisors like Nancy Hall to reshape your portfolio is a smart move.

@richardchristian4556

5 ай бұрын

Certainly! I diversified my $25,000 portfolio across different markets.

@richardchristian4556

5 ай бұрын

I made a net profit of around $115k by investing in high dividend yield stocks, ETFs, and equity

@kadirneval8273

5 ай бұрын

The reality is that you cannot do it without a tried-and-true trader like Nancy Hall

Great analysis. Thank you for sharing. Happy New Year.

Hope your health is doing well man. Good to see you keep producing content. All else is secondary

@EPBResearch

5 ай бұрын

Soldiering through 🫡

Eric, keep on fighting brother! Sending all the positive vibes over to you. We need you to keep making these amazing videos on macro economics for many, many years!

@tapeworm5506

5 ай бұрын

No one positive from him. He always talk about recession and u think he is positive??

@thomasmaxon8911

5 ай бұрын

@@tapeworm5506 he's battling cancer right now. nice one, tape worm...

Thank you Eric! You explain complex theories and make it understandable.

I really appreciate the dedication in each video you post. To be successful in markets, traders should understand the crossover between asset classes & liquidity flow. Olivia Maria Lucas focuses on Multi-asset trading, a single strategy to manage risk, profit, and the code or the actual decision-making across multi-asset classes. Her skills set is top notch

@rebeccamoore8366

5 ай бұрын

I'm surprised that this name is being mentioned here, I stumbled upon one of her clients testimonies on CNBC news last week...

@charliehunnam5187

5 ай бұрын

I remain eternally grateful to Olivia Maria Lucas for her efforts that got me to this point, finally payed off my mortgage and all my debts, what more could I've asked for. God bless you Olivia.

@madhav411

5 ай бұрын

She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran an online search on her name and came across her contact webpage; thank you for sharing.

@manuellanthaler2001

5 ай бұрын

This is a bot and its obvious asf

Excellent as always. Thank you for the analysis!

I will be forever grateful to you, you changed my entire life and I will continue to preach on your behalf for the whole world to hear you saved me from huge financial debt with just a small investment, thank you Veronica Hoy.

@Alexmateo-hq3hl

4 ай бұрын

I'm surprised that you just mentioned Veronica Hoy here. I met her at a conference in 2018 and we have been working together ever since.

@RICARICADO231

4 ай бұрын

The very first time we tried, we invested $1400 and after a week, we received $5230. That really helped us a lot to pay up our bills.

@GeorgeHenderson-tp9mk

4 ай бұрын

What impresses me most about Veronica Hoy is how well she explains basic concept of winning before actually letting you use her trade signals. This goes a long way to ensure winning trades.

@Abigailzhao34432

4 ай бұрын

You trade with Veronica Hoy too? Wow that woman has been a blessing to me and my family.

@ibrahimamad2123

4 ай бұрын

I'm new at this, please how can I reach her?

Concerns about a potential recession and the Fed's talk of interest rate hikes have left me uneasy. I'm unsure about my $440K portfolio strategy, considering the uncertainty of a recession and the possibility that interest rates may not rise significantly

@TheJackCain-84

4 ай бұрын

I completely understand your concerns. But In this current unstable markets, It is advisable to diversify while retaining 70-80% in secure investments. looking at your budget, you should consider financial advisory.

@martingiavarini

4 ай бұрын

I agree. This is why having the right plan is invaluable, my $510k portfolio is well-matched for every season of the market and recently hit 100% rise fromm early last year. I and my CFP are working on a more figures ballpark goal this 2024

@LisaEgan78

4 ай бұрын

Mind if I ask you to recommend this particular coach you using their service?

@martingiavarini

4 ай бұрын

'Carol Vivian Constable, a highly respected figure in her field. I suggest delving deeper into her credentials, as she possesses extensive experience and serves as a valuable resource for individuals seeking guidance in navigating the financial market.

@LisaEgan78

4 ай бұрын

She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran an online search on her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.

I think the problem with trying to predict a recession through indicators and data is to liken a recession to a thing rather than a circumstance. Every recession had a unique cause. A recession is like an economy telling a crazy story to its buddies at the bar. They are closer to case studies than they are some data point. The reason I'm skeptical of this analysis is because the worst seems honestly behind us. Inflation is down from its highs, unemployment is low, some of the biggest bank failures ever didnt lead to a contagion. I will be willing to change my mind if I am wrong.

I love this! Investors were and still are so hype that the stock market ended on a positive note. However all we did was go in a circle over the last 2 years. We have yet to crack 4818.62 on the S&P 500 index. On top of that the stock market is not the economy so the dynamics will always tell a different story. Not to mentioned the fed funds rate has been held steady at 5.50%. The lag effect has yet to kick in. Just like Eric mentioned the yield curve inversion of the 10yr &3mo have been inverted for quite some time. Historically the inversion has a 70% success ratio, but it might have changed. Honestly I really like this indicator that eric mentioned. People get far too bullish as soon as we get a little movement in a positive direction without considering where we are in the tightening cycle. We still have to go through interest rate cuts. while the economy reacts to everything else happening. Not to mention geopolitical tensions, and an unsustainable pile of debt. Of course we never know exactly how things will play out. but I'm excited to see what happens over the next 5 years. Great video!

@JetAngkasa76

4 ай бұрын

its not the ppl, the media kept pushing the narrative and in denial with catchphrase "its diferent this time". With us election around the corner, history show(not always) when near election maket tends to bullish. edit : Either way it goes, we should be prepared, as the quote says: 'When there's blood on the street, it's time to buy.' Statistics also show that we have more billionaires after COVID than before COVID. So, take it as an opportunity rather than being afraid of it. It's where money is made

Once again, you are amazingly clear and succinct.

man I love EPB research . daaam your content is awesome love you love you

Thank you! So informative. It definetly feels like we are in a recession.

Thank you for standing your ground and showing more supporting evidence. History will tell who was correct, but you certainly came prepared.

Dude, one of thr best videos I watched, well explained. Subscribed!!!

I just sold a property in Portland and I'm thinking to put the cash in stocks, I know everyone is saying its ripe enough, but Is this a good time to buy stocks? How long until a full recovery? How are other people in the same market raking in over $200k gains with months, I'm really just confused at this point.

@NoahAnderson3000

5 ай бұрын

You see in the stock market, bigger risk begets bigger results that can work in the bulls' favor. I think investors who are wary of the changing market trends should seek out bear/bull mrkt directions from certified strategists.

@CarterHall-re5fu

5 ай бұрын

You're right mate! I’ve been using a fin-market expert for two years now and I own a 7figure portfolio from investing in stocks. Currently, my portfolio is worth over $1m

@CarterHall-re5fu

5 ай бұрын

Finding financial advisors like Nycole Christina Vannata'' who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.

@JanAlston-kd6yl

5 ай бұрын

Thank you for this amazing tip. I just looked the name up, wrote her and scheduled a call.

@paulchase451

4 ай бұрын

no buy the sip when the recession hits

Grate content and graphics. What software do you use to make the animations?

Thanks for restarting your videos!

Excellent work Erick. You are the Best!!

The one factor that has changed significantly since 2007 is the size of USG deficits. Could borrowing 5-15% of GDP each year prevent a recession? What effects does it have on economic activity? We have never seen such deficits in the US over such a long period of time.

Awesome informative video. Straight to the point, no fluff, great content.

Love all your videos and this is no exception, please keep it up!

Loved the charts and visualization. Very well made.

I'm wondering how many recessions this indicator actually predicted vs how many would have predicted in hindsight. I searched for its history and it's easy to find. Also, a technical recession already happened.

This video is GOLD! Eric is certainly one of the best in the field.

Solid data driven analysis and perspectives. Rare find. I appreciate the confirmation bias, subscribed.

great graphics, brilliant content ... as always

Great info as always. Question I have is has there every been such a 'printing of money' as in recent years? Could the 'new' money be raising the economy in such a manner that it prevents a recession as predicted by the CBLI? At the costs of elevated prices, high stock markets and realty to account for the 'new' 6 trillion infusion?

wow cool, what strategy do you use? if I use the unfilled order strategy taught in the nfc community.

Excellent insight! Keep up with the good work!

Very high quality content and well explained. Thank you

Thanks for using a dark background.

@trappart9209

5 ай бұрын

Fr at night it is the best

Fantastic job breaking down complex issues into easily digestible statistics and facts.

Great info. Thank you!

These will thought of and produced videos are worth waiting for ❤

Really enjoy your videos! After researching the LEI, one criticism is that is weighs goods much more than services, when services make up 85% of the US economy. How would you respond to this criticism? Thanks!

Excellent! Is it maybe a couple more weeks for the December plot?

Nice to see EPB on my Home Screen again!!

Well done video. Concise data driven analysis Thanks

I found really good information. Thank you!

love this, thank you.

Does this mean that is it good to bus stocks now? Or prepare to buy them foe few months or year?

When you are talking about economy, it is slim to impossible to predict a recession and how deep it will be. I agree that all indicator pointing to a recession at the end of Q2-Q3 this year, but that can change.

The avg. American is having a tough time, I know I am not alone. There are others in same position as me. By certain statistics: 22% of americans have no retirement savings. 64% are worried that they will not have money in latter years while 47% of adults who are not yet retired think they have to work part-time in retirement. How can I best grow the 120k I have saved so far for retirement which has 0:02 depleted over the years?

@_davidturner

5 ай бұрын

Think about actions you’re taking that might be harming you such as carrying over credit card debt each month.

@Javier_Rodri

5 ай бұрын

I agree with the reply above. I also think you should think about steps you can take to start. Start somewhere. Anything is better than being frozen even.

@benalfredo

5 ай бұрын

Make sure u use a professional planner, personally i use monica mary strigle and we've made a large 0:02 profit in the past 7 months

Very nice video, thank you. But please fix your audio. It's distorted.

i did not know about gdi, thank you for informeing me.

What’s the general rule for stocks in recessions? Do you sell before-hand or just leave it alone? (More specifically for nvidia stock)

Nice work!

As someone young and new in the economy and stock market, the video is very good and informative, but i still to some degree struggle to conclude, so the indicators point to a recession sometime in 2024, if rules are followed?

This has been my view too. I'm still in equities until that yeild curve inversion starts to get close to reverting. There will be trouble soon after. I'd say we see the start of it by the summer when some of those larger rate hikes hit their 18 month mark.

@Ganzieddongs

5 ай бұрын

My question to you is why does reverting of yield curve is trouble?

@Earthium

4 ай бұрын

Same I didn't know about this indicator I was looking off the inverted yield curve. It looks like when the yield starts normalizing then things fall into a recession. As much as people have been demanding fed cuts, it's almost always during fed cuts when the market drops. Been saving money the past year putting it in CDs, been rather nice. Probably buy my first house if a crash happens put like 50% down.

Thank you for this video

It looks like there have been several recent LEI increases. Any thoughts on whether “this time is different “ in this case?

What do you think on the Private credit sector? Do you think it will be the domino that tilts the stock market?

I appreciate the video and think that it is well done, but an upgraded mic would do you well my friend

Excellent video. The swinging narrative on recession possibilities is somehow driven solely by equities lol

The stock market has been one of the only major (+) components of the LEI. Stocks always are last to display recession signals. Perfect track record. Is this time different..?

Excellent information !!!

It’s interesting that, based on the past conference board leading index values, we should have already been in a recession by now.

Would appreciate if you were to link the chart you talk about.

that was the best macro video i've seen in... ever?

Love this channel.

is there a M/W/D chart for this on trading view or similar?

He’s back!

So i have a bit of money that i want to invest. should i invest all in my selected etfs or invest about 50% and keep the rest as a cash reserve for a possible recession

It also predicts that the market will continue to go up. Assuming you can't predict bottoms and tops this seems to support investing.

Why does the recent drop is not that sharp and seems flat? Past drops look sharp with sharp recovery. What is the reason for that?

Good video. I would suggest not changing the colour coding between slides, as GDI/GDP switch colours at approx 5:42 mark, which can be confusing if the viewer does not look at the legend again.

Even if there are perturbations in the market this year I believe some stocks will still come out as winners. I think it's important to stick to stocks that are immune to economic policies. I'm looking at NVIDIA. I profited more than 200% last year. Maybe there are other recommendations?

You need to put out a video every week. Great content

most concise yet useful youtube video on finance I've ever seen without any filler to try and stuff more ads into a longer form video. Really well done. Thanks a lot!

But if I'm reading the chart at 1:16 correctly: every time the blue line dips into the red, the gray areas are showing that the economy is already in a recession. But that doesn't seem to be the case right now. Does that mean we are in the clear, that its going to happen any day now or that it could still be another year before the economy really takes a hit??

Interesting that LEI and yield curve have never failed calling a recession - while at the same time on 12/28/2023 a breadth thrust occurred ( sp500 summation cycles from

@dawnfire82

4 ай бұрын

Stock market numbers reflect price. Just because prices are high does not mean the underlying economy is healthy. It can equally mean a weak dollar. Likewise, pointing to higher stock prices in an inflationary economy like it's a good thing is stupid.

@growproteas1148

4 ай бұрын

@@dawnfire82 I guess you have no idea what a breadth thrust means...good luck shorting

where can I find the actual monthly data CB LEI for each of the 10 indicators? Thank you.

@maciej1904

4 ай бұрын

Just Google it. LEI US conference economic board.

@maciej1904

4 ай бұрын

Just Google it...

great job with this presentation

Whats the chart type @2.32 .. Possible to code that in Python

I think some people are still unsure about “ this time is different“ Due to the large amount of money printing. How could we possibly take into account this unprecedented money printing into these indicators and come up with something that should apply even with our current governments money supply?

Great video !!!

The Conference Board US leading indicators latest release is no longer focasting a recession in 2024, care to explain?

@financialarchives8069

3 ай бұрын

No recession then, nothing to explain.

This is not a hate comment or anything, but can anyone explain why just combining indicators that all have false signals built into one suddenly makes it super accurate? wouldn't their false indicators still be feeding into the combined analysis? That's a genuine question here, I hope someone with a big brain can help me out.

@mattc1817

5 ай бұрын

They all have "occasional" false signals. However, they are not likely to all have false signals all at the same time. It's basically taking all signals and averaging together, lessening the impact of a false signal from one or two of the indicators. It's a similar philosophy to repeating an experiment 1000 times and taking the average of the result. You may have some outliers, but by averaging it all it gives you a decent idea of what will happen. My potential criticism and question though, based on light research, is that this index seems to place alot of weight on goods as opposed to services, where services make up a much bigger portion of the US economy. But perhaps it still works.

@frannybap99

5 ай бұрын

@@mattc1817 thanks, I tend to never try and predict the stock market but it's entertaining enough these indicators. Just seen too many videos that get predictions horribly wrong even though they seem to have data to back up. Market will always suprise.

I think Near Term Forward Spread is simpler, and with as good a track record, while also tending to lead more.

Not 100% but I do think this time COULD be different for one simple factor, federal spending and stimulus over the past 3 years has been extraordinary, and the FED/TRES are very proactive and dealing with issues like SVB fail which things like SVB fail would typically be a catalyst for a recession.

I take reaffirment from my position we are in a 70s Carter Stagflation/deathspiral. 2-3 years of no capital growth. The stockmarket looks great cause its not a physical product. The hope is the rally up after pays off or the informational currency will evaporate given too long a delay. I feel a strong amount of risk to over exsposure to any stocks in general a broad and wide with other securities approach ect.

Please keep the legend visible when you focus on specific parts of the graph. It would really help us with squirrel brains that can’t remember which was blue and which was red. Great video tho