Rate cuts commence in June 2024, taking 6-8 months to complete. A potential crash, if any, might occur by March 2025. The soft landing narrative is gaining traction, making this big recession everyone is calling for less likely. With $1 million from a business sale, I'm seeking profitable investment opportunities for the next 3 years.

@Suleferdinand

2 ай бұрын

The financial market is a reliable choice. Diversify your portfolio with I-bonds, stocks (ETFs, REITs, dividend-paying stocks), and bitcoin. Given your budget, I recommend hiring a fiduciary to ensure you receive professional insights for a fee.

@KarenLavia

2 ай бұрын

Due to my demanding job, I lack the time to thoroughly assess my investments and analyze individual stocks. Consequently, for the past seven years, I have enlisted the services of a fiduciary who actively manages my portfolio to adapt to the current market conditions. This strategy has allowed me to navigate the financial landscape successfully, making informed decisions on when to buy and sell. Perhaps you should consider a similar approach.

@EdwinSolomon-zs3nz

2 ай бұрын

this is definitely considerable! think you could suggest any professional/advisors i can get on the phone with? i'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation

@KarenLavia

2 ай бұрын

My CFA ’Melissa Terri Swayne’ , a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.

@EddyAgnes-vy4kp

2 ай бұрын

Appreciate this recommendation, hopefully I can get some insight to where the market is headed and strategies to beat the downtrend with when I hear back from Melissa.

Interesting how over 2% inflation has been a concern when central banks and the Fed begin to hike interest rates. I consider the rising interest rate to be a very serious issue since it will undoubtedly cause more investors to withdraw their money from the stock market. But then I'm still aware of certain investors that continue to earn over $365,000. Wish I could accomplish that.

@Christian67337

2 ай бұрын

Very possible! Particularly in the current market. There are several opportunities to generate excellent returns, but such intricate transactions can only be carried out by seasoned market professionals.

@Alden457

2 ай бұрын

AGREED! Over 3 years now, I've made over 1.7 million by simply following a coach's advice. I was on the sidelines for a while watching, trying to determine the best time to get in, before I came across a coach, recommended by my wife. I was reluctant at first but I went ahead and contacted the coach. Best decision yet

@Damon4324

2 ай бұрын

This sounds interesting. My portfolio is in the red. Can you recommend your analyst, please?

@Alden457

2 ай бұрын

Credits goes to Aileen Gertrude Tippy, one of the finest portfolio managers in the field. She's widely recognized; you should take a look at her work.

@Damon4324

2 ай бұрын

Thanks for the advice. The search for your coach was simple. I investigated her well before using her services.

I see the rising interest rate as a very big problem, as more investors will definitely pull out more money from the Stock market. This might have worked when I was still invest-ing with a couple thousand dollars, but it is more difficult now to decide whether to pull out more than $365k from my port-folio. I know some inves-tors still make that despite the strong bear market. In wish I could pull that feat

@carssimplified2195

2 ай бұрын

You have a very valid point, I started investing on my own and for a long time, the market was really ripping me off. I decided to hire a broker, even though I was skeptical at first, and I beat the market by more than 9%. I thought it was a fluke until it happened two years in a row, and so I’ve been sticking to investing via an analyst.

@carssimplified2195

2 ай бұрын

Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’AILEEN GERTRUDE TIPPY” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive.She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.

@ace9840

2 ай бұрын

The way I look at it I'd rather be out a year early than a day do late. 2008 was a great example of why. And this time period seems just like that on but worse.

I was advised to diversify my portfolio among several assets such as stocks and bonds since this can protect my portfolio for retirement. I'm seeking to invest $200K across markets but don't know where to start.

@yeslahykcim

Ай бұрын

the strategies are quite rigorous for the regular-Joe. As a matter of fact, they are mostly successfully carried out by pros who have had a great deal of skillset/knowledge to pull such trades off.

@Jadechurch-ql3do

Ай бұрын

Even with the right strategies and appropriate assets, investment returns can differ among investors. Recognizing the vital role of experience in investment success is crucial. Personally, I understood this significance and sought guidance from a market analyst, significantly growing my account to nearly a million. Strategically withdrawing profits just before the market correction, I'm now seizing buying opportunities once again.

@Tonyham198

Ай бұрын

Please can you leave the info of your lnvestment advsor here? I’m in dire need for one

@Jadechurch-ql3do

Ай бұрын

Laila artine kassardjian' is the licensed coach I use. Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment

@BerryRyan-gl3sm

Ай бұрын

Thank you for this Pointer. It was easy to find your handler, She seems very proficient and flexible. I booked a call session with her.

The fin-Market;s have underperformed the U.S. economy as fear of inflation hammers the prices of stock;s and bonds. My portfoliio of $750k is down to $592k any recommendation;s to scale up my return;s during this crash will be highly appreciated.

@JanineJ.Cromwell

2 ай бұрын

The strategies are quite rigorous for the regular-Joe. As a matter of fact, they are mostly successfully carried out by pros who have had a great deal of skillset/knowledge to pull such trades off.

@DeannaMurray-zv

2 ай бұрын

Smart, If i wanted to do the same with my retirement funds too, how do i get started trading?

@JimmyA.Alvarez

2 ай бұрын

I'm grateful for this advice. Finding your coach wasn't too hard. I researched her well before arranging to speak with her on the phone. Considering her resume, she appears competent.

@BeverleeR.Ziegler

Ай бұрын

Since meeting Expert Jennifer, I now agree that with an expert managing your portfolio, the rate of profit is high, with less risk.

@WyattSmith-v

Ай бұрын

I even thought I'm the only one she has helped walk through the fears and falls of copy trading.....

Do you think it's a good time to consider selling some stocks, or is it better to hold onto them for the long term? I’m considering rebalancing my $2M portfolios, So I'm curious about the best strategies to invest this year.

@WestonScally7614

2 ай бұрын

I guess it's important to reassess your investment strategies based on current market conditions. You should also consider a market expert to guide you.

@SaintYvess

2 ай бұрын

Accurate asset allocation is crucial, and some people utilize hedging tactics or devote a portion of their portfolio to defensive assets in anticipation of market downturns. Expert advice is essential for attaining this. This strategy has helped me maintain financial security for the past five years, earning approximately $1.5 million in returns on assets.

@JordanReam8186

2 ай бұрын

Accurate asset allocation is crucial, and some people utilize hedging tactics or devote a portion of their portfolio to defensive assets in anticipation of market downturns. Expert advice is essential for attaining this. This strategy has helped me maintain financial security for the past five years, earning approximately $1.5 million in returns on assets.

@Powerz00

2 ай бұрын

Opting for an inves-tment advisr is currently the optimal approach for navigating the stock market, particularly for those nearing retirement. I've been consulting with a coach for a while, and my portfolio has surged by 85% since 2022

@Christine-wp2bw

2 ай бұрын

Please can you leave the info of your lnvestment advsor here? I’m in dire need for one

Market declines, soaring inflation, a significant increase in interest rates by the Fed, and rising Treasury yields all point to additional losses for portfolios this quarter. How can I profit from the present market turbulence? I'm still debating whether to sell my $125k ETF/Growth Stock portfolio.

@tmer831

2 ай бұрын

Concentrate on two main objectives. First, keep yourself safe by knowing when to sell stocks in order to limit losses and maximize gains. Second, get ready to benefit from market changes. I advise consulting a coach or other professional for advice.

@WillieNickell

2 ай бұрын

I agree, before the pandemic got real serious, I used to handle all my investment and I was pretty good at it, fast forward to post-pandemic and my-portfolio is steady in the red with profit rate down to the lowest, that's when I touched-base with a coach I saw featured on businessweek, who restructured my portfolio and over the last couple months, I've made over $700k from initially $120K

@SteveDutton-v

2 ай бұрын

How can I participate in this? I sincerely aspire to establish a secure financial future and am eager to participate. Who is the driving force behind your success?

@WillieNickell

2 ай бұрын

Finding financial advisors like ‘Vivian Carol Gioia’ who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.

@SteveDutton-v

2 ай бұрын

Well-done. Vivian Carol Gioia appears to be highly knowledgeable and very qualified, came across her consulting page just after inputting her full name on the web. In fact, Ive seen commentaries about advisors, but not one looks this phenomenal.

Interest should stay up for longer.

@gordongekko2781

2 ай бұрын

Interest rates will have to stay up. Cutting rates now would clearly reignite inflation.

@Aviator526

2 ай бұрын

And possibly increase

I stand on the fact that recession is pushed by Uncle Joe and his crew, even though i own a $230,000 portfolio, high inflation is stressing me about retirement. Looking for short term profitable investment opportunities to supplement my monthly income.

@Angelavaldess

2 ай бұрын

@@DanielPanuzi Speaking from personal experience, I would say engage professional guidance. Not sure where you get an experienced one, but if your knowledge of the market is limited, it seems like a good bet.

@Angelavaldess

2 ай бұрын

@@DanielPanuzi Starting early is the best way to build wealth, investing remains a priority. I learnt this when I got disabled from an accident, I had to reach out to a financial planner who devised a plan for me to live off dividends from my investments. I earn enough from home and live comfortably with her help.

@ericmendels

2 ай бұрын

@@Angelavaldess Glad to have stumbled on this comment, Please who is the consultant that assist you and if you don't mind, how do I get in touch with them?

@ericmendels

2 ай бұрын

@@Angelavaldess Hi, can you recommend a trusted fellow i can reach out to? I think that is the right thing to do.

@Angelavaldess

2 ай бұрын

@@ericmendels Sure, the likes of the popular lady Alicia Estela Cabouli does a good job. Just look up the name, you’d find details on the web to set up an appointment as she offers free consultations from first timers like yourself.

The FED missed an opportunity. They should have raised rates. It would have cooled the huge speculative bubble in equities. Instead we face a Volcker scenario with no way out since it will explode US debt and lock in massive budget deficits long term.

@jonathantaylor6926

3 ай бұрын

They should have raised rates.... in 2012.

@billm7035

3 ай бұрын

Exactly

@ace9840

3 ай бұрын

Volcker had the room to take interest rates to a high of 20% to stop runaway inflation for one reason .. we had a National debt of less than $1 Trillion Dollars. Today that debt is $35+ Trillion and rising by $1 trillion every 3 months. They could sell all the U.S. gold, 8000+ metric tons and couldn’t even pay the interest on the debt for a year. They’re long past the fixing this by decades and they know it. It’s not my opinion it’s histories.

@droghtak

3 ай бұрын

I agree, due to the high debt level cutting rates sooner could prove why worse than in the '70s

@davebellamy4867

3 ай бұрын

They need to run the deficits up and up to the sky. There's a lot of profit in war.

March was pushed out to June, June will be pushed out to the fall. Next thing you know it’s 2025 and no rate cuts.

@ronie6773

2 ай бұрын

I hope so! Then the real estate market can cool down and I can buy a condo in florida

@herp_derpingson

2 ай бұрын

They will cut it after the elections.

@scottpoll1401

2 ай бұрын

I also can’t watch business news anymore, that’s all they talk about, rate cuts, rate cutes! Ugh it’s not happening yet

@thelonelydonutgirl8931

2 ай бұрын

Well..thats good for the world..until those early rate tightening effects sufficiently digest to the entire economic system and fully cool down the sticky inflation..let patience runs till 2025..

@vladimirofsvalbard9477

2 ай бұрын

No way the market lasts that long lol

Absolutely love it!!! I'll have to be financially stable in every sense before purchasing my first supercar. The best thing to do with your money is to invest rightly because money left saving will end up with no returns

@georgeearling905

2 ай бұрын

No doubt being financially free and able to afford these luxuries cannot be overemphasized, making smart plans and setting up diversified investment portfolios is quite essential.

@sebastiaanthijn7982

2 ай бұрын

you don't need that much, as long as you have 250k to 350k in cash, and earn at least 40k plus is fine. It not like you are going to pay the car off, get the car, drive it for a year or two then get something else. You don't need millions of manov to oniov nico thinnc.

@cherylhills3227

2 ай бұрын

Most people miss it but the secret to retiring comfortably is finding a way to make returns while your money works for you. My Dad, as i remember started saving for retirement quite late but I know he was making more than 10k returns from his investments monthly and it was completely passive

@ericbergman7546

2 ай бұрын

I started investing on my own, but I lost a lot of money. I was able to pull out about 200,578 after the 2020 crash. I invested the money using an analyst, and in seven months, I raked in almost 673,000

@V.stones

2 ай бұрын

@@ericbergman7546 Please could you guide me on how to get in touch with your consultant? My funds are being eroded by inflation and seek a more lucrative investment strategy to effectively utilize before I consider retirement.

Its crazy that just the INTEREST is a trillion dollars a year

@TrevForPresident

3 ай бұрын

The "it's not a household" crowd ignores we have to service the debt. It's also funny to measure the debt to GDP when revenues are a fraction of that.

@bdek68

3 ай бұрын

And growing every day.

@mt8474

3 ай бұрын

Yup and Governments have no desire to reduce their spending or even consider balancing the budget. Currency devaluation will be the hidden tax they are willing to pass on to their Citizens.

@Bunny.8i

2 ай бұрын

No it's not. It's about $400B

@bdek68

2 ай бұрын

@@Bunny.8iyour way off. It’s pushing 1 trillion

The US government cannot afford the current interest rates on its government debt. If US interest rates stay that high for a while it will be the mother of all debt crises.

@sunilpatel3739

3 ай бұрын

The Fed is independent from the US government and will stick to it's goal of reaching 2% inflation and near full employment. Based on past history the Fed lowers rates a significant amount AFTER a financial crisis or unemployment spike of some kind.

@prolific1518

3 ай бұрын

​@@sunilpatel3739🤣🤣🤣 Political Reserve is independent in name only buddy

@H1labs

3 ай бұрын

@@prolific1518your a nobody who’s trying to make big claims 🤡

@medielijah

3 ай бұрын

​@@sunilpatel3739😂😂😂😂😂😂 clown. Are you actually serious? 😂😂😂😂

@ace9840

3 ай бұрын

@@sunilpatel3739 Why 2% inflation rate? My goal has always been a 0% or negative inflation rate. Who in their right mind wants to pay more for the same things every year.

Why is there the expectation that interest rates will go down? Interest rates now are near their long term average of 5.42 percent from 1971 until 2023. With interest rates near zero for so long the Fed did not have "any bullets in its guns" to use to further lower interest rates to stimulate the economy. Now it has the ability to stimulate the economy but probably will not waste lowering interest rates unless growth falls and unemployment rises. Folks need to get used to long term interest rates in the 4% to 6% range. Addicting people to near zero interest rates for so many years was an aberration and morally questionable.

@pokergeniusordonkey6517

2 ай бұрын

Correct. Near zero rates is complete insanity. There must be some cost to money, or every stupid speculative nonsense idea and terrible government policy moves forward. Every great entrepreneur understands risk and knows how to be cautious. Near zero rates allows terrible entrepreneurs to do all kinds of ridiculous things, like buying up dozens of condos to use as AirB&Bs. Good business people focus on increasing sales. Terrible business people throw money at everything.

@427vot

2 ай бұрын

Agreed. Fed should hold the rate. The housing market is way too hot and still not cooling. This important sector is currently priced out of reach for most of us. Hold the rate!

@123svx

2 ай бұрын

​@@pokergeniusordonkey6517Spot on about throwing money around. We're in a state of reckless speculation fueled by cheap money. Note how Wall Street rallies after every FOMC meeting. Inasnity

@smdutt

2 ай бұрын

Questionable? Question asked and answered: it was incredibly dumb and short-sighted. Now we’re all paying the price for it now with inflation and the out of control housing market. Fully agree with you.

@rokyericksonroks

2 ай бұрын

They raise “until they break something”. Powell has piled on 500+ basis points and cannot get UE rate above four, never mind five, percent. He should be raising here.

Whoever is doing your charts for you, needs a raise asap!!

@rudra..._

2 ай бұрын

Hands down the best segment in this video.

@smdutt

2 ай бұрын

Way to fuel inflation further! But yes, agreed. 😂

@MattSkibz

2 ай бұрын

just a flat document image put in 3d space in after effects, and a virtual camera

America is currently plagued by the hydra-headed evil duo of inflation and recession. The worst part about this recession is that consumers are racking up credit card debt. In April alone, credit card debt went up 20% while rates have doubled in a year. Inflation is so high that consumers are literally taking debt for basic life necessities. Collapse has indeed begun..

Zero rates are how they handle catastrophes. Amazing that's become the expectation.

@tHebUm18

3 ай бұрын

That's literally been the idea for like a century now...?

@amsd1231

2 ай бұрын

​@@tHebUm18 The fuk are you on about? It has never hit 0% in its history until recently.

@PB111627

2 ай бұрын

Because it works!

@amsd1231

2 ай бұрын

@@tHebUm18 Fed rate has never hit 0% until recently. It has never been the case for century.

@goodwinphotoartgiclee9514

2 ай бұрын

No they don’t. There has never been a zero interest rate before Covid.

There is no reason to cut interest rates just yet. Based on the performance of inflation in the 70s and 80s, cutting interest rates too early could cause inflation to go right the way back up if we haven’t gotten to a low enough point yet. It’s worth the wait, based on the historical data.

@walternate2914

3 ай бұрын

Well… there is a reason. It’s an election year. Also the interest alone is one trillion dollars per year. The US way over did it with spending during Covid and cannot afford the interest on their spending

@trousersnake1486

3 ай бұрын

They have to cut. They have debt coming due that they will have to refi at much higher rates. We already pay over a trillion just in interest payments. If they don't cut before they refinance, it's over. Regardless it's over, they are just delaying the inevitable.

@davebellamy4867

3 ай бұрын

Central bankers' power comes from inflation.

@davebellamy4867

3 ай бұрын

1:55 The economy is not thriving. There are huge layoffs in industry every month. It's not an economic boom. It's a speculative hyperbubble, period. Industry has left the western shores.

@tann_man

2 ай бұрын

This analysis ignores global economic conditions. Our economies are globally synchronized. Asia and Europe are already in recession and facing currency crises. Rates WILL be coming down and that's not a good thing, its because they have no other choice. The fed will choose 4%+ inflation if it means preventing a global depression and a global monetary liquidity crunch.

Talking about the 1970s they had to put the rate at 14%. So we can’t compare to that. They need to raise the current rate much much higher and let it sit until it comes down.

@Dontcallmefred

3 ай бұрын

Yes but the public debt wasn’t this high in the 70s

@ace9840

3 ай бұрын

@@Dontcallmefred Thats why they could take interest rates that high, which actually reached 20%. You can do when you have less than a $1 Trillion in debt bit not when you have $35 Trillion in debt and now growing at $1 Trillion every three months.

@petermarshall6577

3 ай бұрын

The Fed has skewed the inflation metrics so much it isn't an accurate gage of real inflation, its just become FED SPEAK.

@davebellamy4867

3 ай бұрын

Double figure rates would bankrupt virtually every western government, business and household. It may happen. The central banks may be intending to do this to bring in the new CBDC systems. It would be the biggest wealth transfer to the governing elite in history by a factor of 100 and the public will lap it up and happily forego all their property for "security."

@gormenfreeman499

3 ай бұрын

People don’t realize how much GDP per capita china co tributes the standard of living of Americans and many other people around the world. The chinese communist party destroyed their economy. Now there is too much money chasing fewer hair dryers, clothes, food, electronics, furniture, building materials etc that much less of is coming from China now.

The rising interest rate can surely control inflation, but won't prevent erosion of the eroding purchasing power of the US dollar. I have learnt my lesson this time. The banks can't be making money off my money, while inflation eats into it. I have set aside 650k to invest in the stock market now, since that keeps up with inflation, but I don't know how to get started.

it is interesting how we are starting to see more discussion of using the 1970 inflation metrics, because, by those measures, inflation is still wildly out of control.

Nobody gets it, massive uncontrolled government spending is the problem. Billions upon billions of $$$ on non-essential "pet projects". Something you failed to mention.

@ma2i485

2 ай бұрын

Im not suprised he didn't mention it, nobody bothers to talk about the madness in the fiscal spending.

"When the economy is doing too well, prices go up" No. Prices tend to naturally go down in a thriving economy, via technological progress and mass production that easily scales to the demand, which can only grow so much per unit of time. An iPhone 3G now costs a few bucks, imagine how much would a Snickers bar cost before the industrialization of food. Prices go up when the government throws freshly printed cash at the economy, at a much higher rate than its output, causing more units of currency chasing the same amount of goods and services. Inflation is NOT a natural symptom of ANY thriving economy. It's the product of Keynesian economies on overdrive, where economic growth is driven by national debt and inflation of the money supply.

@jonathantaylor6926

3 ай бұрын

Great point. Most people don't realize how deflationary technology is. Today one farmer can generate the output of 50 of his 1920 farmer peers.. yet food cost are up.

@ace9840

3 ай бұрын

Agree … Keynesian economics or another way of saying it is MMT (Modern Monetary Theory) aka .. Printing currency out of thin air.

@donnaaskew3684

3 ай бұрын

@will4417 NAILED IT!!! Thank you.

@kaputasri

2 ай бұрын

Bingo, you are smarter than these so called PhD s working at the fed.

@Zigggy

2 ай бұрын

Great point

Yup. We’ll know the system is truly corrupt if they lower rates soon.

@bdek68

3 ай бұрын

I think we already know it but yes I’m sure they will lower rates regardless of how high inflation gets

@MyExcellentOpinion

3 ай бұрын

Agreed The Fed is supposed to be completely separate from the president. I remember the fed saying they were going to raise rates in 2019 like they should have and then Trump blasted him and then he didn't raise rates like he should have so we wouldn't be in the mess we are in now.

@TheBoomtown4

3 ай бұрын

@@MyExcellentOpinion yep.

@lawngnome2758

2 ай бұрын

​​​@@MyExcellentOpinionthink that all had to do with covid. The Democrats wanted to do lockdowns. Trump wanted to stay open. I think he got tipped off that the Dems also wanted to do stimulus checks so he wanted to beat them to it. Then Dems gave more anyway and made the pandemic last three years. It's during this type of political warfare when interest rate were brought back down and that caused inflation so rapidly.

@tann_man

2 ай бұрын

is the USD continually debased? Is your value continually siphoned from you via the cantillion effect? yes. Should we be forced to use "money" that intentionally melts away in our hands? no. But lower rates doesn't mean corruption. It means the global monetary system is in crisis and more USD needs to be printed to meet global demand else the world economy falls apart like its starting to. The fed is a reactive agency. Inflation spiked so they reacted by raising rates but high rates causes banking, economic, and monetary problems, these problems are piling up and soon the entire globe will be in recession, the fed will react to this crisis by lowering rates, they'd much rather have your currency melt just a little bit quicker than have a quarter of the world unemployed and the global economy fall apart. They're stuck between a rock and a hard place and as time goes on and with each business cycle more credit is created and the space between is shrinking

5:04 Core inflation high is really bad. It's just not come down significantly. Basically energy prices corrected since mid 2022 and it appears they are now in a new uptrend, that can easily send headline CPI back higher than the nearly 4% core number.

Good video - when are you gonna do the exact same video for the Australian economy/inflation environment?

Problem is that Powell is trying to appease the stock market at the same time, so in his talks he does the walking on egg shells narrative. The Fed shouldn't be trying to appease investors minds that's not the job of the Fed, but its obviously the case.

@tann_man

2 ай бұрын

no he's trying to appease global monetary markets. If USD doesn't print to meet global demand for safety and liquidity then you have a liquidity crunch and the entire global monetary system falls apart like its starting to.

Thank you for going over the history of inflation and the causes of inflation. Very helpful!

It's really too bad that JP doesn't jawbone Congress to reduce spending, to reduce the need to inject more money (via debt) into the economy.

Compare to the 1970, the US is printing a crazy amount of money undermining the high rates that history might not be a good indicator.

@tHebUm18

3 ай бұрын

The US money supply has literally been shrinking since like mid-2022 AKA the US is doing the opposite of printing money. Quantitative tightening. Quit listening to idiots that say the US is printing money.

@moonahmed7834

2 ай бұрын

They aren’t printing you have to look at m2 charts showing the fed basically burning their balance sheets.

@tonycamaj4560

2 ай бұрын

​@@tHebUm18could we be seeing the after effects of many years of excessive printing and QE NOW?

@tHebUm18

2 ай бұрын

@@tonycamaj4560 Kind of irrelevant to my comment--it is factually false that we've been printing more money than has been being taken out of circulation for a year and a half now. In fact, if you look at the charts, with all the QT the US money supply is nearly back to pre-pandemic levels (factoring in interim economic growth). Pretty sure economists are putting more of the blame on the supply chain issues reducing quantity of goods to consume causing the booming inflation than the money supply, but the money supply was definitely a contributing factor in keeping demand high despite the economic damage of the pandemic--but, also, it was a factor in keeping the poor/unemployed able to feed themselves so you win some, you lose some; it's hard to target aid in a once-in-a-century crisis.

Gary Stevenson has a much better take on inflation IMO. The general public didnt spend more when governments around the world were putting that money out. It was a hold over because those people were furloughed or laid off entirely. All of that money eventually ends up in the hands of the businesses and business owners - and because the govts didnt put out a profiteering tax to withdraw it from circulation, the rich got a massive wealth injection from those govts effectively. Its greedflation. The wealthy can spend more, and so they raise prices while those of us at the bottom end of the scale can't really afford those increases.

@Newarkguy38

3 ай бұрын

You are crazy Americans are broke and maxed out on mortgages, credit cards and insanely high apr cars. It’s so bad that people are buying groceries on buy now pay later. Interest rates need to stay where they are and loans not given to these psychopaths with 100000s+ debt. People are so crazy some will take loans out on a credit card to throw it at bitcoin or sport gambling to try to ink out a profit. No loans are immoral and Americans need to be held accountable.

@peterbardsley2636

3 ай бұрын

Yep and when they drop rates we're going to see a massive increase in house and asset prices. The whole cycle will start again.

@raulreveles9722

3 ай бұрын

They sure are buying a lot of food and renting a lot of homes, If G.S. were correct you would think luxury items would go up in price not common items. The "rich" don't buy things when they are over-priced that's how we got rich in the first place.

@tann_man

2 ай бұрын

@@peterbardsley2636 opposite. Fed is reactionary. They only drop rates in a crisis. crisis first begins -> rates are cut -> crisis worsens -> asset prices tank -> rate cut even more -> crisis resolves -> asset prices rise -> inflation comes back -> rates rise -> asset prices rise even more -> inflation even higher -> rates go higher -> lag effect kicks in and inflation cools -> crisis first beings. repeat.

Until the Federal Government stops spending and creating money faster than the higher interest rates are pulling it out of the economy, inflation is going to continue to be flat. Either rates need to go higher or deficit spending has got to go down. Prepare for no cuts this year.

@tann_man

2 ай бұрын

prepare for cuts. The global monetary system is falling apart. Fed will need to cut to save the world from a potential depression.

@Agent.R.

2 ай бұрын

@@tann_man You're probably right that they will be forced to cut soon, so be prepared for the rate of inflation to increase again. In fact it will probably go nuts as the Feebs decide they need to stimulate the economy again.

Thanks for a great video, would massive layoff cause the interest rate to go down? There has been a lot of recent reports indicating the Tech industry is going thru layoffs.

A really good assessment of the current state of affairs. Completely agree. The question is, when will JP break it to the market that rates are Not coming down this year?

Odd making this video without having watched the meeting itself lol

One item I buy at my local grocery store increased in price by 21% last week. Up over 100% in last 2 yrs. Of course I did not buy. Inflation is way higher than these nuts admitted. IMHO

Balanced and thoughtful analysis. Well done.

@msg7007

3 ай бұрын

Yup. Loved it!

With all debts mathematically impossible to repay, does that not make the currency worthless.

This will age badly

Great video, very well done!

To combat the negative effect of inflation, it’s a good idea to diversify your portfolio across different asset classes, such as stocks, bonds, and real estate, since this can help protect your portfolio against inflation. I’ve heard testimonies of people accruing over $550k during recessions

@user-fb2hk7vu3q

3 ай бұрын

In my opinion I feel for a successful long term strategy you have to really seek guidance from a well inclined expert truly they're the ones making the best from this current situation

@rineleff2009

3 ай бұрын

I wholeheartedly concur, which is why I appreciate giving an investment coach the power of decision-making. Given their specialized expertise and education, as well as the fact that each and every one of their skills is centered on harnessing risk for its asymmetrical potential and controlling it as a buffer against certain unfavorable developments, it is practically impossible for them to underperform. I have made over $745k working with an investment coach for more than two years. FACTS!

@filipxavier1041

3 ай бұрын

That's fascinating. Honestly as a newbie i wish i could experience this, If you don't mind me asking How can I contact your Asset-coach as my portfolio is dwindling?

@rineleff2009

3 ай бұрын

Well, ‘Wendy Birkett” is the licensed fiduciary I use. Just research the name. You'd find necessary website to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment..

@filipxavier1041

3 ай бұрын

thanks for putting this out, it has truly rekindled the fire to my goal...

"We want to see more data". Shelter is a lagging indicator (C) Sasha. If the interest rate is reduced, then shelter will come down, thus effecting the whole CPI rate.

@spiceyfrenchtoast9421

3 ай бұрын

Not necessarily

@spiceyfrenchtoast9421

3 ай бұрын

Wall Street is hoovering up homes pretty fast

but have we ever been doing too well?? it's such a scam.

@NewMoneyYouTube

2 ай бұрын

‘Too well’ as in the conditions allow inflation to occur easily

They just borrowed another $1.2 trillion and it was $1 Trillion a hundred days before. There borrowing more each time because the interest payments are compounding. As soon as the deficit hits $50 Trillion there repayments will be $216 billion dollars per hour . . . W T F !

Beautiful Video! I learned a great deal from this. Based on the data presented, it appears as though interest rates won’t be coming down any time soon. Too much USD in the system. Especially with countries moving away from the USD. will make it all the more complicated especially down the road.

Excellent vid.. keep up the good work lad

Great charts. Crystal clear commentary.👍👍👍

@NewMoneyYouTube

2 ай бұрын

Thank you!

Absolutely correct in your analysis, it's weird how people don't look at the big picture. Disregard FOMO, stay strong, keep a bit of cash, when reality hits people stocks will go on sale! #thisisnottimingthemarket

@e2rqey

3 ай бұрын

That quote from Warren Buffet blew my mind as a kid and was really a lightbulb moment for me. The whole _"the stock market is the only place where when everything goes on sale people run out of the store"_ one.

@smdutt

2 ай бұрын

I agree, but their past behavior has been very profitable bc the fed has always bailed them out and reinforced those instincts over and over again. The fed put is still very much alive at this late stage, sadly.

I think FED should increase interest rates.. we are not seeing the economy slowing down.. rent and property are still too high compared to salary. People are still buying homes. Theres more buyers than sellers.

Thank you, this was a great video.

Very well explained!!

Barry Sternlicht has some interesting views on this matter worth paying attention to. You have to look at the underlying components of inflation, how they are determined/reported, and the risks. The biggest skew is from housing which he argues is a flawed statistic and we’re likely to see some real challenges ahead based on his data.

The inflation is that affecting people the most are energy. Food. Insurance. And they are removing those from the numbers. They need to make sure those are in there at 2% as well.

@Homeb

3 ай бұрын

That’s the thing, they won’t. They’ll continue looking at core and say everything is alright meanwhile gas prices are rising and companies are laying off.

Thx for great video. First time seeing your material, well done!!! It's a rare point of view online and I believe you are right. The only reason Powell is dangling that carrot of lower rates is because of the Presidential election. He'd prefer having Biden as his boss rather than Trump, the latter having critized him heavily. As you pointed out so well, between inflation still being sticky and even increasing again we can expect a 75 basis points (the 3 small cuts u mentioned) decrease at best and most likely less. I was in University mid 1980's and I believe a Savings Acct was paying over 12% interest (around 15% from memory) 1970's inflation stuck around for a long time. Mortgages must have been expensive, but at least housing didn't cost a fortune like today. Can u imagine how catastrophic that would be today? Powell doesn't want that as his legacy and I now believe rates could stay higher for longer than the market expects, unless Powell has seen signs the economy will break down and he'll be able to deliver those cuts. Time will tell

@NewMoneyYouTube

2 ай бұрын

Thanks for watching!

They aren’t lowering mortgauge rates yet because so many homes are being built and closing on large loans at high rates , helping the banks out and not the little guy once again. If they would just lower one point now it could be 200-400 less a month for us first time home buyers . I was hoping they were gonna drop it for me but I guess not . Really let me down , be nice if they could lower one point in next few weeks really would help Americans , single person paying 3000/month for first home interest over the term of a 350k home equals 940k nearly 600k in interest over 30 year term loan , but there is a trick to dodge that interest with line of credit and pay bit payments down on principle lowering that interest by hundreds of thousands of dollars . Still isn’t easy though best of luck to folks out there, banks making big bucks poorly manage it and get bailed out unreal

We all know this is political as we know that two months of inflation and stable economic activity is making federal reserve's mandate contradicting itself if they indeed begin the cutting cycle. I don't know why we're so addicted to growth in a exponential manner and using a percentage as a gage is just flat out irresponsible. We should be using a linear approach and shift the upper bound when it's fine to do so but big companies always argue that smaller businesses should keep up or fail but we know that causes insane imbalances that we see continue to widen.

@view1st

3 ай бұрын

In a debt based economy there has to be expansion or everything collapses. You can have infinite debt but you cannot have infinite growth (money, trade, etc. ) to match that debt and, unfortunately, that is where the US economy finds itself right now, the inflection point when debt exponentially rises faster than the capital to pay that debt.

4:07 Yes. Inflation is sticky. Month over month, it's looking worse. It bottomed autumn 2023 basically. Second wave coming and Swiss central bank cuts rates and so will the Fed. So inflation up, up up. Economy down, down down. Stock market probably up, up, up on easy money and expanding war.

@tonycamaj4560

2 ай бұрын

Wouldn't rate increases drop the SP500?

The mistake was 0% rates for over a decade. the damage has done. there is no recovering from this.

You should do more macroeconomics vids bud! This is great work ⭐️💫

Can you include other charts as well? Recession chart, price of oil chart, etc? 6:38

JP has never once said he'd do 3 rate cuts, annalist said that. he's just been giving speculators maybes to something he never promised to keep things stable. if he cut rates, it would jepradise the dollar's value and i don't see him doing that just to protect people's portfolios

@KENTUCKYUSA1

3 ай бұрын

If he spooks the bond market, game's over.

Thank you for this info!

“Confidence, confidence, confidence” - The Great Monetary Soothesayer

Good video! New subscriber.

Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is following this very serious and informative content cheers Frank 😊

The main inflation statistic that is holding headline inflation up is *shelter* the a data point that is *directly* affected by the interest rate and is also a lagging indicator so the longer they leave the interest rate unchanged the longer it will take for shelter to drop You'd think the guy incharge of setting the rates would analyse the data but for how he speaks and acts he clearly just looks at the headline figure

@nicks237

3 ай бұрын

Trying to learn here, but I assume shelter is directly affected by interest rates, because interest rates will be a contributing factor in rent prices, correct? Now, how is shelter affected when interest rates lower, but demand surges and increases home prices, which would then increasing estimated rent prices people could get, which contributes to the shelter category? Data I see is that every time average mortgage rates drop below 7%, loan applications increase, so could we not see home prices increasing once interest rates lower, which would increase shelter inflation on the CPI…lagged of course.

It is very misleading to show the chart of Indlation and Interest rate and say Interest Rates caused inflation to go down. It's at best a very poor use of common sense. Inflation cooled down, as the rates weren't even high. It is well known that Interest rate hike take between 1 and 2 years to show up in economic metrics. Inflation going down from 9% to 5% had almost nothing to do with Interest rates.

@yldrmcs

3 ай бұрын

I agree on that. people ignore the fact that supply chain issues were getting better after covid situation and that caused the inflation to be lower

Methinks June, July & Sept. Electoral considerations. 😊

Good video. Very enlightening.

Imagine if inflation ain’t high, that the coffee (cold brew) I buy. Used to be $5.79 two-three weeks ago and now is at $5.99. And months before that, it was $5.69… plus, I live in NJ. 😢😂

@Newarkguy38

3 ай бұрын

Sorry to hear hope you make it out of there. Good luck brother

@TonyRealTalk07

3 ай бұрын

@@Newarkguy38 Thanks brother, blessings

1:55 I respectfully disagree on that point. The economy is not thriving. There are huge layoffs in industry every month. It's not an economic boom. It's a speculative asset hyperbubble, period. Industry has left the western shores. It's an empty shell. Excellent charts by the way.

@NewMoneyYouTube

2 ай бұрын

Good points!

Spot on.

Nicely made video, I specially liked the highlighted chart , very clear to understand.

Keep the macro videos coming pls

US FED: Economic Inflation: Lessons learned: The US Fed has a goal, I repeat 'goal', of 2% annual inflation. And this is on top of all the 2%'s that came before it, which turns out to be an exponential amount of inflation over time. Most people do not have wages and benefits that keep up with the true cost of inflation, which causes many social and economic problems in this nation and in this world. Zero income is sill zero income and zero pay raises are still zero pay raises. This is also a NATIONAL SECURITY item as many nations in the world stop utilizing America's currency as a reserve currency due to in part America's currency being weaker in this world. America has less influence in this world, which allows other nations in this world to take the lead. As a nation becomes greater, it's currency should be able to buy more, not less. Higher inflation: * Obviously higher prices. * Also at times lower quantity. * Also at times lower quality. (And if not lower quantity and/or lower quality, then that much more higher prices). Many rich people and large corporations have taken America's wealth and hid it in out of country bank accounts and/or invested that wealth in other nations for various reasons. This has the net effect of basically stealing America's wealth from America. Now also, rich people and certain businesses operate on huge debt, and even the US Government operates on huge debt. These entities love higher inflation because it helps to wipe out their debt, as they pay back their debt with currency that is worth less (worthless). Additionally, things like saving's account's get next to nothing for 'normal' people trying to save money for future expenses. Those that are operating on debt get rewarded and those trying to be more financially responsible are getting punished. America's currency system is broken and needs to be fixed. In part, a law needs to be passed that the US Fed has to have a 'goal' of 0% (zero percent) inflation. Sure, this is going to piss off those who game the financial system, but it would help with curing some of societies' issues as well as strengthening US currency thereby strengthening America's position in this world as more nations would want to utilize the US Dollar as a reserve currency. Inflation is still going to occur due to various reasons, but we don't have to automatically have a goal of increasing inflation. Another idea might be to give the US Fed just 1 single job: Control Inflation, (and take away their other job of trying to have full employment). Let the markets control full employment. And for any entity that thinks economic inflation is a 'good' thing, then you must also be okay with many of life's social and economic issues as well as a nation becoming weaker in this world as it's currency eventually loses value in this world. You must be okay with poor people suffering and dying due to higher economic inflation. In part, at least some of this world's suffering and death is on you. You caused this with your higher economic inflation goals. (A man made problem and can have a man made fix with 1 simple change. Change the US Fed's economic inflation goal from 2% to 0% which would help ease suffering and death in this world.) And if you still say that 2% inflation would be fine, then surely you would not have a problem with making a Federal law that says that all businesses all across America are mandated to increase their employee's salaries by at least 2% every year, (the 2% just keeping up with inflation, any above 2% due to the increased value of that employee). Otherwise, it's a system set up by the rich to transfer wealth from the middle class and poor to the rich. And if the middle class and poor do not stand up for their own interests against the rich, who will?

@caradelatorre7710

3 ай бұрын

having zero inflation for long can cause deflation which can lead to lower wages. However that does not mean the over all cost living would go down. This is because business is based on loans that pay for everything the companies needs do not reset that fast. At best the loans reset every 7 years. Rents are based on demand and how the overall building costs.

@charlesbrightman4237

3 ай бұрын

@@caradelatorre7710 And yet, any economic inflation over previous economic inflation, overtime, becomes exponential economic inflation, (compounded economic inflation). If a person does not get pay raises, benefit increases and investment increases that keep up with the true cost of inflation, the person becomes poorer over time as far as buying power is concerned. Spread this out over a nation, the nation becomes poorer as far as buying power goes. Spread this out over a global economy, the global economy becomes poorer over time. Even businesses would have to contend with higher economic inflation with their own expenses. "IF" for example the US Fed had a goal of price stability, (no economic inflation nor economic deflation), most citizens and most businesses would be better off in a nation and in this world. Math is still math.

@charlesbrightman4237

3 ай бұрын

@@caradelatorre7710 Also, as a nation becomes greater, shouldn't it's currency be able to buy more, not less?

thanks for the explanation

It’s been getting worse since 2008's GFC because they did fix anything. They only managed to make it far worse with mountains of more debt that was the cause of the problem in the first place.

Keeping it at the current rate is killing us. The average weekly grocery bill is 300 dollars in Houston. He needs to increase the rates. Get to 6%.

@sunilpatel3739

3 ай бұрын

There needs to be consolidation and mergers in the grocery space to help lower costs too. In the meantime enjoy all the relative savings from Costco. They've been outperforming.

@pritapp788

3 ай бұрын

Why 6% only, not 8-10%? And how will higher interest rates make your grocery bill go down?

@sunilpatel3739

3 ай бұрын

@@pritapp788higher interest rates slow down spending and loans being taken out. Also there is more of an incentive to park cash in high-interest investments (aka not spending it). This will have a deflationary effect on prices. If businesses want to increase sales they will have to lower prices or close their doors.

@tonycrabtree3416

3 ай бұрын

@@pritapp788 8%-10% has proven to be a recession starter every time. 6% now while the economy can handle it just might do the trick of lowering inflation without too much pain. Groceries inflate with inflation. Cure inflation, cure rising grocery prices. When interest rates get painful, people become frugal. Frugal people stop overspending. Stop overspending and you lower demand. Lowering demand increases supply. To get rid of supply, producers put stuff on sale. Frugal people buy on sale products, on sale products reset the supply/demand equation. That’s the cycle.

@tonycrabtree3416

3 ай бұрын

@@pritapp788 Also, many companies borrow money to produce their products, instead of using their own cash reserves/profit margins. Supply chain financing. 6% just might prevent massive layoffs, but force companies to be more frugal.

1) CPI is not a real measure of inflation. 2) Wages proportional to inflation are unbalanced. 3) Asset prices have gone to oblivion masked by easy monetary policy for 40 years. 4) Fed options are either kill employment, corporate BKs, and a fiscal debt/tax issue OR drop rates and keep that stimulus machine going at the long term cost of majority of households not affording groceries or housing. Good way to cause a "French Revolution."

@misterstaple

3 ай бұрын

So were fkd

@tonycrabtree3416

3 ай бұрын

@@misterstapleYes. If Powell doesn’t raise rates. They have to stop/majorly slow speculation.

Nice vid

I agree with your video. The Fed should keep interest rates high. In fact I I don't think the inflation is coming down unless the FED keeps the rates high or even raises them slightly.

The Fed has a tough job, Powell has been consistent and said that they will "Likely be higher for longer..." They are data dependent so I'm sure there is data that they have that they aren't sharing, maybe going higher than 5.5% would have broken something. Right now it seems like they stopped raising rates a little bit too soon, but it's easy to be a back-seat driver. Unfortunately Core PCE will go higher, rents are going to increase because everyone's tax assessments went up which results in higher property taxes. Property owners aren't going to eat the increase, they are going to pass it on to renters.

I had the firm belief that inflation would continue falling fast under the assumption that 1) insufficient supply was a major cause of inflation, and 2) there is a significant delay in inflation coming down as a response to rate hikes. Regardless of how significant supply chain disruptions have remained as a cause of inflation, your video clearly illustrates that 1) this factor is not as volatile as I thought and it will take time to be resolved (if it ever is), and 2) the delay between rate hikes and inflation coming down seems to be negligible. I can see a possibility for this tight time correlation between rate hikes and inflation coming down being just a coincidence though. It would mean that inflation coming down could be caused mainly by an increase in supply, which would leave the effect of rate hikes free to have an effect sometime in the future (thus indeed there being a delay between rate hikes and inflation coming down). In any case, a few months ago I was expecting inflation to fall to extremely low or even negative levels. It clearly does not seem to be remotely probable right now in the USA, but I do fear it might happen in Europe due to weaker demographics and consumption, a weaker economic context, and insufficient supply being a bigger component of inflation to begin with. I fully expect the ECB to rush to cut rates in the coming months. We'll see how true or how comical this comment turns out to be.

Like a pendulum, maybe waves that swing back and forth are the nature of things. People like to think they have control, but maybe we don't, or not as much as we think.

Very informative and I agree with the sentiment at the end.

I heard a good video on current social security in usa? Can you cover this in detail or no ? Thanks. Great video

It's not *JUST* because of the volatility that we exclude food/energy when trying to evaluate underlying inflation. It's also that food/energy tend to be priced predominantly by the GLOBAL market and aren't good measures of what's going on DOMESTICALLY Also, PCE is the inflation measure that matters, particularly Core PCE. With Core PCE in the 2.x%, a Fed rate in the mid 4.x% would still be restrictive and putting downward pressure on the economy, so they have room to cut. Power keeps saying this, and KZread people just don't seem to understand

Wasn't the 70s inflation caused by dropping gold standard? Not really comparable in my opinion.

@KENTUCKYUSA1

3 ай бұрын

Ni, inflation started before the dollar was de-linked to gold. LBJ's guns and butter economy resulted in massive inflation.

Great content, as usual, Brandon and team.

Buying TMF heavy. They’ll have to drop rates soon

History has shown that the Fed supports the incumbent president - so while JPow might say they won't get involved in politics, the reality is that judging off historical actions we can expect the Fed to "support" Biden by cutting rates (they also kept rates down for the last presidential election, the same rates that people are now screaming were kept down for too long and caused the current inflation). I personally believe interest rates should be kept where they are (if anything I'm actually in favor of continuing to raise) but I think there's too much historical data that shows that the Fed generally supports the incumbent (by stimulating the economy).

They gonna hold interest rates until deflation happens and fks up everything.

@jonathantaylor6926

3 ай бұрын

You losing your house is a sacrifice the FED is willing to make.

Please make more of these videos. This inflation was/and/has already happened we printed a lot of money. There is no way to fix this. We have to wait for the new cost of living to catch up with the people that need to live through this generation. Interest rates may go down at some point, but I wish they would just hold for now and the market can stabilize for a few years.

The fact is, with the share of dollar based global trade reducing and shifting towards one-to-one currency exchange trading, the demand for USD in foreign countries is reducing. If the fed interest rate is reduced, foreign markets will not buy US treasury bonds. Leading to all the bonds only being purchased locally, driving up money supply within USA and resulting in inflation. In the past, when USA reduced interest rates and printed more money, the inflation used to be spread across the whole world. Not anymore. Good luck trying to balance your (US govt) books without printing money, the way the rest of the world has been functioning forever.

Well it went into 15-19% but kills construction work.

Well said .

Raising interest rates even once will cause the market to drop. I believe Japan recently raised rates. I agree the market is pricing in rate cuts that may not happen. So be prepared.

its like telling a spoilt child theirs no ice cream, the answer is NO ! you've eaten it all and its gone till next shopping.

In '70 the US debt was irrilevant, so the FED doesn't have the same freedom it had back then...

@tonycamaj4560

2 ай бұрын

Exactly. We're in unprecedented economic times.