The Trillion Dollar Question | TCAF EP115

Ойын-сауық

On episode 115 of The Compound and Friends, Michael Batnick and Downtown Josh Brown are joined by Rick Brink (Senior Vice President and Market Strategist at Alliance Bernstein) to discuss: inflation, what constitutes a recession, monetary policy, going long duration, the biggest risks to the market, and much more!
This episode is brought to you by Public. Visit www.public.com/compound to learn more about how to lock in a historic 5.5% yield on your cash.
More from Rick:
/ rick-brink-3556421b3
00:00 - Cold Open
10:01 - Intro
14:27 - Bond Yields
17:28 - GDP
29:58 - Interest Rates
34:16 - Is Wall Street outperforming Main Street?
37:28 - The 80's
46:12 - The Bond Vigilantes
50:09 - Cash
59:45 - The 60/40 Portfolio
01:13:40 - The Biggest Risk to the Market?
01:25:30 - Favorites
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Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Michael Batnick and Josh Brown are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management.
Wealthcast Media, an affiliate of Ritholtz Wealth Management, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here ritholtzwealth.com/advertisin.... Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. The information provided on this website (including any information that may be accessed through this website) is not directed at any investor or category of investors and is provided solely as general information.
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Пікірлер: 151

  • @TheCompoundNews
    @TheCompoundNews7 ай бұрын

    This episode is brought to you by Public. Visit www.public.com/compound to learn more about how to lock in a historic 5.5% yield on your cash.

  • @John_thetrader

    @John_thetrader

    7 ай бұрын

    i like Ricks energy

  • @JustMe-dw9rl
    @JustMe-dw9rl7 ай бұрын

    Guys , please bring Rick more often to your show. Rick you are smart ! The way he explains everything is just wow!

  • @conradhenninger2209
    @conradhenninger22097 ай бұрын

    This open has been awesome....people have interests besides the market....Josh has his music, Michael has his bad movies.

  • @angcx6192
    @angcx61927 ай бұрын

    The best cold open so far. It's always fascinating to listen to someone talk about something they have a passion for.

  • @cliffpeebles9705
    @cliffpeebles97057 ай бұрын

    I lift 12 ounces at a time. It's all about the reps. 🍺

  • @rainerluthershelley5131
    @rainerluthershelley51317 ай бұрын

    👍 Another good show. I couldn't believe how strong your guest is and quite informative too. Thanks again All.

  • @cyrusfryback6807
    @cyrusfryback68077 ай бұрын

    Great stuff as always!! Josh and Michael crushed it with an as usual awesome guest! Great work production team and everyone involved

  • @CharlieBrown247
    @CharlieBrown2477 ай бұрын

    Awesome show. Please bring Rick back soon! 🔥

  • @daedalusjones3804
    @daedalusjones38047 ай бұрын

    Fantastic show with lots of insight, humor and charge from Rick's enthusiasm.

  • @rossmacintosh5652
    @rossmacintosh56527 ай бұрын

    Wow! What a great guest Rick is! His enthusiasm is infectious and he brought with him a really lively discussion that was informative & potentially impactful on my thinking. That's why I regularly watch The Compound & Friends. This episode was great!

  • @toneeclark399
    @toneeclark3997 ай бұрын

    Had me at intro 🏋🏽‍♂️ LFG !!!

  • @lazybeatz
    @lazybeatz7 ай бұрын

    @33:33 🍻🍻🍻 love the enthusiasm!!! You gotta bring him back asap, he's the truth 🙏

  • @reaganwitten2272
    @reaganwitten22727 ай бұрын

    Fantastic show. Need to get him on more often!

  • @TheNoobTker
    @TheNoobTker7 ай бұрын

    Please bring Rick back sometime, such a refreshing take on the market and life compared to the street.

  • @Hoiks
    @Hoiks7 ай бұрын

    Dont ever stop. This is the best podcast. 1:00

  • @RodsStrengthTraining
    @RodsStrengthTraining7 ай бұрын

    Awesome to see a fellow powerlifter on the podcast!

  • @ezio_auditore5425
    @ezio_auditore54257 ай бұрын

    Top five favorite guests of all time. PLEASE have him on again

  • @leithshenstone
    @leithshenstone7 ай бұрын

    Rick the Brick for the win. What a great show guys. @Downtown and Batnick: thank you for creating and running such a formidable program. Your content touches me and my family’s lives in many aspects, not just financial. We greatly appreciate the effort you all put in to relentlessly deliver exceptional ideas and thought provoking concepts.

  • @1922DPenny
    @1922DPenny7 ай бұрын

    By far and away the best podcast on markets, if you know a better one I’d like to hear it.

  • @anthonyb3570
    @anthonyb35707 ай бұрын

    Duncan’s comin back home to the Carolinas baby!!! Wooooooooo

  • @PacificOutspread
    @PacificOutspread7 ай бұрын

    Very eloquent guest. Great discussion. Thank you 🙂

  • @TheNatX
    @TheNatX7 ай бұрын

    Fantastic conversation. I absolutely loved listening to this episode!!

  • @anacisewski7703
    @anacisewski77037 ай бұрын

    Thank you Josh for speaking truth to power. I’m not in the top 20%, and neither are my friends. We’re not out there in a spending spree because RENT, AUTO, GAS FOOD , and insurance takes most, if not all of our income.

  • @depietri1
    @depietri17 ай бұрын

    Great Show!!!! Still the best Podcast out there!!! @Josh what’s your Favorite 7-10 yr bond fund. You’ve been reading my mind.

  • @SMTraz
    @SMTraz7 ай бұрын

    Great episode, Rick needs to be in the regular rotation!

  • @ThaboHermanus
    @ThaboHermanus7 ай бұрын

    You guys are special. And shooting this in the studio is special. It honestly is bizarre that I have listened to so many episodes on my phone (podcast), and in the same weekend I come to KZread to catch the charts and the animated expressions I can sense on audio. I did mean to ask as an aside, did you not count the episode for the archives that Josh did while travelling with Tom Lee? I could be wrong. 🤷🏽‍♂️

  • @Beakerandgreg
    @Beakerandgreg7 ай бұрын

    Great conversation guys. Thanks again for introducing me to super interesting people!

  • @mattwhitney10
    @mattwhitney107 ай бұрын

    Rick was fantastic. Would love to see him on the show again!

  • @Lanark83
    @Lanark837 ай бұрын

    Terrific show. Would love some ideas on best way to get access to the type of high yield corporate debt of the type / duration discussed outside of ETFs and buying the odd single bond on an exchange?

  • @MJLU280
    @MJLU2807 ай бұрын

    Deadlifting 520 lbs is savage for 145 lb dude. 💪👊💪👊

  • @leestack
    @leestack7 ай бұрын

    Thank you all again for a great show!

  • @steverobinson8926
    @steverobinson89267 ай бұрын

    Wow… great show gents, thank you

  • @stevecatpatrick8056
    @stevecatpatrick80567 ай бұрын

    You know who's grtting impacted and not keeping up? State and local employees. You see any teacher wages going up in real terms? After rhe previous decade of wage cuts, they need a tin of real income gains.

  • @jaredking31

    @jaredking31

    7 ай бұрын

    Anyone who works at hospitals who isn’t a travel nurse or administrator is getting crushed too compared to pre covid

  • @Dpaq13

    @Dpaq13

    7 ай бұрын

    They need to be doubled and even then they’re still behind

  • @stevecatpatrick8056

    @stevecatpatrick8056

    7 ай бұрын

    @@Dpaq13 yep, Those are those employees in those middle two deciles that we can see getting mullered in the pandemic. Pathetic wage gains for the middle class relative to the other two deciles. That's who's taking the L which Mike and Josh glossed over, the middle class. They also kind of glossed over the top quintile doing well which is exactly where they fall.

  • @sparksmcgee6641

    @sparksmcgee6641

    7 ай бұрын

    Oh shut up with the lie about under paid teachers. Teacher unions set the pay scale and thwy set it so you get ahit wages until at least year 9. Then in goes up and to the right with unreal total compensation. No 10th year teachers are ever in the press saying they're underpaid.

  • @AndrewUllman
    @AndrewUllman7 ай бұрын

    This guys spits fire

  • @sparksmcgee6641
    @sparksmcgee66417 ай бұрын

    Rick is a new favorite. Bond guys are never given enough credit until a time like now and then no one understands the math they rattle off.😂😂😂😂😂 Real good gueat once a year at minimum and another time just foe fun on off bond macro issues. Hell him and Lee in a rwo hour where Rick explains interesting macro movements proving Lee's dry macro points.

  • @sparksmcgee6641

    @sparksmcgee6641

    7 ай бұрын

    Just saw this was a 1:35 so a 3 hour duo cast

  • @jimdou4617
    @jimdou46177 ай бұрын

    I think you are missing a rather obvious factor that the government is grossly under reporting inflation which would make nominal GDP look really hot. This consideration would put a great deal in perspective..

  • @BaccaratDegen
    @BaccaratDegen7 ай бұрын

    I think I need to take a look at my Roth and 401K allocations. The yields of bonds vs MSCI returns are much greater, not to mention, the fees for international ETFs are too high.

  • @jeffossola668
    @jeffossola6687 ай бұрын

    JB definitely missed his buttons. Some great/funny stuff, 👍

  • @hwillia6
    @hwillia67 ай бұрын

    This is great 👍🏽

  • @ionescucristian3672
    @ionescucristian36727 ай бұрын

    Loved the energy. I think i have a new favourite guest

  • @TheZyphre
    @TheZyphre7 ай бұрын

    the dr strange analogy

  • @MrMike-zm8ex
    @MrMike-zm8ex7 ай бұрын

    I think Batnick should interview himself. He seems more interested in that than anyone’s ideas.

  • @tbone8737
    @tbone87377 ай бұрын

    Great show as usual you guys.

  • @mdcodered05
    @mdcodered057 ай бұрын

    I didn’t appreciate the Ben Carlson impersonation 😭

  • @chri6393
    @chri63937 ай бұрын

    For the lowest end wage growth was highest, but it takes 3 lifetime of wages to buy a house

  • @sparksmcgee6641

    @sparksmcgee6641

    7 ай бұрын

    No if you started one of those lowest wage jobs in construction.

  • @noun1986
    @noun19867 ай бұрын

    To me transitory always meant roughly the amount of time it took inflation to peak will be roughly the amount of time it will take to unwind because my expectation is that logistics issues, price increases, growth kpis, etc take years to work itself through the system.

  • @Markviews2020
    @Markviews20207 ай бұрын

    Josh is right! They Fed is giving me a raise!! I am spending more!

  • @patrickbramhill3434
    @patrickbramhill34347 ай бұрын

    Love the intro Josh !❤

  • @biffgriffbuford
    @biffgriffbuford7 ай бұрын

    I appreciated Rick's energy and passion in this ep. 🔥🔥🔥

  • @user-gh7ff9nk7z
    @user-gh7ff9nk7z7 ай бұрын

    Incredible conversation. Can you guys explain the concept of cost of carrying. You referred to this when discussing the Bill Zack an trade

  • @user-gh7ff9nk7z

    @user-gh7ff9nk7z

    7 ай бұрын

    Bill Ackman* Trade

  • @lobas1231
    @lobas12317 ай бұрын

    Awesome intro

  • @kyaghleah
    @kyaghleah7 ай бұрын

    I like this. Start with fitness training every time 🤓👍🤓 Get Josh lifting weights 🏋️‍♀️ 😀👍

  • @joeedo89
    @joeedo897 ай бұрын

    I wish y’all challenged Rick more. If everyone should just be in treasury bonds now what is the point of your industry?

  • @barefootman7569

    @barefootman7569

    7 ай бұрын

    Having a framework to determine that position and the ability to communicate that maybe now is a good time for that position now? Just spitballing here.

  • @barefootman7569

    @barefootman7569

    7 ай бұрын

    Cheers

  • @justinackley9954
    @justinackley99547 ай бұрын

    This show was next level.

  • @george6977
    @george69777 ай бұрын

    👍

  • @dougbrown7413
    @dougbrown74137 ай бұрын

    Really good stuff. Thank you.

  • @peterpayne2219
    @peterpayne22197 ай бұрын

    This man looks like Christian Bale from a distance.

  • @usazar
    @usazar7 ай бұрын

    This was complex. I need cliff notes

  • @Mr.Blue000
    @Mr.Blue0007 ай бұрын

    Someone correct me if I’m wrong here but if the top 20% is sitting on cash that they can spend and everyone else is in a credit crunch and we’re already at 8%. Let’s say the Fed goes to 10 it’s going to kill everyone who’s in a credit crunch but the top 20% are still going to be OK and then if the Fed cuts rates prices are going to go up on things aren’t they gas, food, etc correct? If so we’re looking at a FED assisted roll up of assets cause everyone in a credit crunch is going to have to sell their assets to those who aren’t.

  • @aaronkelly3035

    @aaronkelly3035

    7 ай бұрын

    They don’t care about Brokies. If the rich aren’t in recession these people don’t see the struggle

  • @erickarnell
    @erickarnell7 ай бұрын

    I'm always surprised that no one on these shows talks about the effects of demographics in wage growth (especially at the lower levels). There are fewer Gen Z kids moving into the job market than we had Millennials.

  • @toneeclark399
    @toneeclark3997 ай бұрын

    Second post. Excellent.

  • @joedonohue4600
    @joedonohue46007 ай бұрын

    Terrible assumption: Fed will just jump right in to save us

  • @jonathangat4765
    @jonathangat47657 ай бұрын

    Best show in some time.

  • @KL-nj9oe
    @KL-nj9oe7 ай бұрын

    It's just a matter of time. We all know it's coming. Buckle up and be prepared.

  • @TimLukeAnderson
    @TimLukeAnderson7 ай бұрын

    50+ 145 lbs bench pressing 300~ thats pretty stout for 145 , 225 is good for that weight by itself.

  • @1922DPenny
    @1922DPenny7 ай бұрын

    Absolute savage, saying Pat McAfee when he is talking about Covid

  • @indermann9523
    @indermann95237 ай бұрын

    So good

  • @DarkLordJmac
    @DarkLordJmac7 ай бұрын

    This guy looks and sounds like Hank Scorpio from the Simpsons.

  • @williamjamison4862
    @williamjamison48627 ай бұрын

    According to the google machine his personal best bench press in competition is 248. He could not BP 2x his bodyweight. He might have benched 300 before he cut a bunch of weight. He had a good story to tell and didn't need to embellish it.

  • @bytesizefinance9169
    @bytesizefinance91697 ай бұрын

    Bro, where did you get your cardigan?

  • @bytesizefinance9169

    @bytesizefinance9169

    7 ай бұрын

    P.S. I love it and want to buy it

  • @colewalker1837
    @colewalker18377 ай бұрын

    "The guy making the fries" still doesn't make enough. Not even close. Lol more 60.

  • @sparksmcgee6641

    @sparksmcgee6641

    7 ай бұрын

    What is enough? Right now today's dollars.

  • @sideline4937
    @sideline49377 ай бұрын

    Great show and guest. He was interrupted a lot, you guys need to let your guests finish their thoughts. Maybe Josh as a single host would work better?

  • @sparksmcgee6641

    @sparksmcgee6641

    7 ай бұрын

    Good points I noticed on this one but I think they'll get a better vibe if they spend more time together. Which hopefully they will. The two person does create a buffer from the interviewer tangents.

  • @no_goo

    @no_goo

    7 ай бұрын

    Watch the solo episode batnik did 2 weeks ago. No interruptions. Thought they were actually pretty good this episode. Didn’t find myself getting annoyed by interruptions at any point like in past shows

  • @sideline4937

    @sideline4937

    7 ай бұрын

    @@sparksmcgee6641 Perhaps the first half can be a solo interviewer to give the guest plenty of time to present their information, then bring the pair together as a comedy routine. Josh is quite the funny guy and he loves using Michael as a foil😄

  • @ionescucristian3672
    @ionescucristian36727 ай бұрын

    Guys, we all nerds here. We don't do this fitness stuff 😂

  • @gobc71
    @gobc717 ай бұрын

    Batnick with the zingers

  • @kurdi98k
    @kurdi98k7 ай бұрын

    Q3 GDP growth was 4.9% in real terms?? I thought it was nominal. Holy ...

  • @anacisewski7703
    @anacisewski77037 ай бұрын

    My reality… rent is going up 7%, not 2%., never mind food, car loan and credit card interest rates. Statistics is fun for you guys, but reality is hard for us working income folks.

  • @jluther1755
    @jluther17557 ай бұрын

    Bond Vigilantes you mean Love Vigilantes the Great New Order song JB.

  • @Kmaster0815
    @Kmaster08157 ай бұрын

    The MMT people were right.... bonds (high interest rates) are just government stimulus for rich people; It's poor and middle-class people subsidizing (not having access to affordable credit) rich people. It's just more "trickle down" garbage, that Josh has discovered doesn't work.

  • @saulserano4292
    @saulserano42927 ай бұрын

    I mean yah burger flippers at McDonald’s make more than they did 5 years ago in dollars. But their 25% increase is outpaced by the 40% increase in cost of living so they are worse off. I would think he knows that.

  • @GrayBlanket
    @GrayBlanket7 ай бұрын

    What is the trillion dollar question?

  • @sparksmcgee6641

    @sparksmcgee6641

    7 ай бұрын

    Where do bonds go???

  • @GrayBlanket

    @GrayBlanket

    7 ай бұрын

    @@sparksmcgee6641 Thank you!

  • @mrcmid9132
    @mrcmid91327 ай бұрын

    💤 💤 let me know when the yield curve normalizes from inverted.

  • @user-py9ek5vn1h
    @user-py9ek5vn1h7 ай бұрын

    6 -10% preferreds

  • @HomelessHomeowner617
    @HomelessHomeowner6177 ай бұрын

    9% increase on min wage or 5% of six figures lol. I need a high yield job😂

  • @davidmann2524
    @davidmann25247 ай бұрын

    I think it’s funny that these guys have Grantham on and still don’t understand the bear argument, which is fairly simple, with a lot of history to back it. The real question is when not if. And like every recession, we are in the stage of “it’s been a year where is it, things are fine, even though all this data is very concerning, the answer must be the market is unkillable” Maybe MMT has changed the game, and we are just going full in on inflation/wealth inequality. Also real wages aren’t up for the bottom, that’s tagged to CPI, which we all know is kinda bullshit by now. It’s merely a measure of what median urban wage earners are making not true inflation. When I see people parrot that they are making 18$ in Dayton at fast food places I know they are reading the misleading ads where they put up to in finis print. I live here and Tampa Bay is more expensive and none of these people are making more than 15. Shit first year electrician apprentice makes 14 an hour.

  • @ericfrith6358
    @ericfrith63587 ай бұрын

    Let the man speak, good grief.

  • @Capital_Alligator
    @Capital_Alligator7 ай бұрын

    Sweater szn 🔥

  • @marcz6653
    @marcz66537 ай бұрын

    It’s not that complicated…there’s too much money in circulation.

  • @steplaland
    @steplaland7 ай бұрын

    If McDonald’s worker is getting 17 an hour without a master’s degree and growing wage at 10%, you bet I’m using that for justification at my review to get an commensurate increase. If not that gap closes quickly and I am working at McDonald’s and displace that worker.

  • @midwestcannabis
    @midwestcannabis7 ай бұрын

    PARTY on🎉

  • @cliffpeebles9705

    @cliffpeebles9705

    7 ай бұрын

    TGIF MWC

  • @midwestcannabis

    @midwestcannabis

    7 ай бұрын

    @@cliffpeebles9705 Thank God Its THE COMPOUND AND FRIENDS 🥳✌️🥳✌️✌️🥳✌️🥳✌️🥳✌️🥳🥳✌️ Party on Cliff 'Ol Pal! 🥳✌️🥳

  • @cliffpeebles9705

    @cliffpeebles9705

    7 ай бұрын

    @@midwestcannabis 👍 You are the King of emojis!

  • @midwestcannabis

    @midwestcannabis

    7 ай бұрын

    @@cliffpeebles9705 🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳✌️✌️✌️✌️

  • @midwestcannabis
    @midwestcannabis7 ай бұрын

    🎉🎉🎉🎉

  • @cookinthekitchen
    @cookinthekitchen7 ай бұрын

    Sorry to interrupt but the Spaniards stole gold , I just watched a documentary on the Incas

  • @sparksmcgee6641

    @sparksmcgee6641

    7 ай бұрын

    Silver mined from the America's is what caused massive inflation in Europe. Is was literally the money used everyday. Gold wasn't that much by comparison. Look at thw total mining numbers through 1650 or 1700

  • @allanpickett9419
    @allanpickett94197 ай бұрын

    Tailrisks= declining revenues for the next 5 yrs

  • @indianajones3315

    @indianajones3315

    7 ай бұрын

    Lower inflation = lower revenues

  • @allanpickett9419

    @allanpickett9419

    7 ай бұрын

    Hard to say

  • @allanpickett9419

    @allanpickett9419

    7 ай бұрын

    Lower rates= Higher revenues

  • @echoeversky
    @echoeversky7 ай бұрын

    The Algos don't care about the FED.

  • @echoeversky

    @echoeversky

    7 ай бұрын

    Demographics is fate and for the next 10 years it's going fubar.

  • @Reutzel507
    @Reutzel5077 ай бұрын

    GDP is pretty much government spending. Great job for missing that part.

  • @Reutzel507

    @Reutzel507

    7 ай бұрын

    No mention of the jobs being added are government jobs. Which is not an actual sign of a robust economy. Also no mention of the job revisions. They are revising the jobs down to the point you are losing the jobs that were created.

  • @aaronkelly3035

    @aaronkelly3035

    7 ай бұрын

    I wish they would have Peter schiff on

  • @Reutzel507

    @Reutzel507

    7 ай бұрын

    @@aaronkelly3035 He would spend the whole episode telling them how wrong they have it.

  • @pulinmalhotra6816
    @pulinmalhotra68167 ай бұрын

    Who is this guy ?

  • @anhta31
    @anhta317 ай бұрын

    How is this guy 145 lbs lol crazy

  • @ocvegasproperty
    @ocvegasproperty7 ай бұрын

    So second soft landing in 60 years? Yeah, I don’t think so…

  • @gibdi0n
    @gibdi0n7 ай бұрын

    ppl like to talk about incremental upgrades of iphone. So what? Why is that a problem? I own 11, my partner 12, it is not like I switch phones every year. I do not live in US to trade in. Closest apple store is 700km away. You have resellers. but that is about it. And those ppl that talk about incremental upgrades do change them every year. What an irony.

  • @patrickharrison9677
    @patrickharrison96777 ай бұрын

    Stocks are going to suck for the rest of the 20's

  • @1309gsk
    @1309gsk7 ай бұрын

    cnbc read as if the gdl was 2.9% so ... what is truth?

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