The Trillion Dollar Question | TCAF EP115
Ойын-сауық
On episode 115 of The Compound and Friends, Michael Batnick and Downtown Josh Brown are joined by Rick Brink (Senior Vice President and Market Strategist at Alliance Bernstein) to discuss: inflation, what constitutes a recession, monetary policy, going long duration, the biggest risks to the market, and much more!
This episode is brought to you by Public. Visit www.public.com/compound to learn more about how to lock in a historic 5.5% yield on your cash.
More from Rick:
/ rick-brink-3556421b3
00:00 - Cold Open
10:01 - Intro
14:27 - Bond Yields
17:28 - GDP
29:58 - Interest Rates
34:16 - Is Wall Street outperforming Main Street?
37:28 - The 80's
46:12 - The Bond Vigilantes
50:09 - Cash
59:45 - The 60/40 Portfolio
01:13:40 - The Biggest Risk to the Market?
01:25:30 - Favorites
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Пікірлер: 151
This episode is brought to you by Public. Visit www.public.com/compound to learn more about how to lock in a historic 5.5% yield on your cash.
@John_thetrader
7 ай бұрын
i like Ricks energy
Guys , please bring Rick more often to your show. Rick you are smart ! The way he explains everything is just wow!
This open has been awesome....people have interests besides the market....Josh has his music, Michael has his bad movies.
The best cold open so far. It's always fascinating to listen to someone talk about something they have a passion for.
I lift 12 ounces at a time. It's all about the reps. 🍺
👍 Another good show. I couldn't believe how strong your guest is and quite informative too. Thanks again All.
Great stuff as always!! Josh and Michael crushed it with an as usual awesome guest! Great work production team and everyone involved
Awesome show. Please bring Rick back soon! 🔥
Fantastic show with lots of insight, humor and charge from Rick's enthusiasm.
Wow! What a great guest Rick is! His enthusiasm is infectious and he brought with him a really lively discussion that was informative & potentially impactful on my thinking. That's why I regularly watch The Compound & Friends. This episode was great!
Had me at intro 🏋🏽♂️ LFG !!!
@33:33 🍻🍻🍻 love the enthusiasm!!! You gotta bring him back asap, he's the truth 🙏
Fantastic show. Need to get him on more often!
Please bring Rick back sometime, such a refreshing take on the market and life compared to the street.
Dont ever stop. This is the best podcast. 1:00
Awesome to see a fellow powerlifter on the podcast!
Top five favorite guests of all time. PLEASE have him on again
Rick the Brick for the win. What a great show guys. @Downtown and Batnick: thank you for creating and running such a formidable program. Your content touches me and my family’s lives in many aspects, not just financial. We greatly appreciate the effort you all put in to relentlessly deliver exceptional ideas and thought provoking concepts.
By far and away the best podcast on markets, if you know a better one I’d like to hear it.
Duncan’s comin back home to the Carolinas baby!!! Wooooooooo
Very eloquent guest. Great discussion. Thank you 🙂
Fantastic conversation. I absolutely loved listening to this episode!!
Thank you Josh for speaking truth to power. I’m not in the top 20%, and neither are my friends. We’re not out there in a spending spree because RENT, AUTO, GAS FOOD , and insurance takes most, if not all of our income.
Great Show!!!! Still the best Podcast out there!!! @Josh what’s your Favorite 7-10 yr bond fund. You’ve been reading my mind.
Great episode, Rick needs to be in the regular rotation!
You guys are special. And shooting this in the studio is special. It honestly is bizarre that I have listened to so many episodes on my phone (podcast), and in the same weekend I come to KZread to catch the charts and the animated expressions I can sense on audio. I did mean to ask as an aside, did you not count the episode for the archives that Josh did while travelling with Tom Lee? I could be wrong. 🤷🏽♂️
Great conversation guys. Thanks again for introducing me to super interesting people!
Rick was fantastic. Would love to see him on the show again!
Terrific show. Would love some ideas on best way to get access to the type of high yield corporate debt of the type / duration discussed outside of ETFs and buying the odd single bond on an exchange?
Deadlifting 520 lbs is savage for 145 lb dude. 💪👊💪👊
Thank you all again for a great show!
Wow… great show gents, thank you
You know who's grtting impacted and not keeping up? State and local employees. You see any teacher wages going up in real terms? After rhe previous decade of wage cuts, they need a tin of real income gains.
@jaredking31
7 ай бұрын
Anyone who works at hospitals who isn’t a travel nurse or administrator is getting crushed too compared to pre covid
@Dpaq13
7 ай бұрын
They need to be doubled and even then they’re still behind
@stevecatpatrick8056
7 ай бұрын
@@Dpaq13 yep, Those are those employees in those middle two deciles that we can see getting mullered in the pandemic. Pathetic wage gains for the middle class relative to the other two deciles. That's who's taking the L which Mike and Josh glossed over, the middle class. They also kind of glossed over the top quintile doing well which is exactly where they fall.
@sparksmcgee6641
7 ай бұрын
Oh shut up with the lie about under paid teachers. Teacher unions set the pay scale and thwy set it so you get ahit wages until at least year 9. Then in goes up and to the right with unreal total compensation. No 10th year teachers are ever in the press saying they're underpaid.
This guys spits fire
Rick is a new favorite. Bond guys are never given enough credit until a time like now and then no one understands the math they rattle off.😂😂😂😂😂 Real good gueat once a year at minimum and another time just foe fun on off bond macro issues. Hell him and Lee in a rwo hour where Rick explains interesting macro movements proving Lee's dry macro points.
@sparksmcgee6641
7 ай бұрын
Just saw this was a 1:35 so a 3 hour duo cast
I think you are missing a rather obvious factor that the government is grossly under reporting inflation which would make nominal GDP look really hot. This consideration would put a great deal in perspective..
I think I need to take a look at my Roth and 401K allocations. The yields of bonds vs MSCI returns are much greater, not to mention, the fees for international ETFs are too high.
JB definitely missed his buttons. Some great/funny stuff, 👍
This is great 👍🏽
Loved the energy. I think i have a new favourite guest
the dr strange analogy
I think Batnick should interview himself. He seems more interested in that than anyone’s ideas.
Great show as usual you guys.
I didn’t appreciate the Ben Carlson impersonation 😭
For the lowest end wage growth was highest, but it takes 3 lifetime of wages to buy a house
@sparksmcgee6641
7 ай бұрын
No if you started one of those lowest wage jobs in construction.
To me transitory always meant roughly the amount of time it took inflation to peak will be roughly the amount of time it will take to unwind because my expectation is that logistics issues, price increases, growth kpis, etc take years to work itself through the system.
Josh is right! They Fed is giving me a raise!! I am spending more!
Love the intro Josh !❤
I appreciated Rick's energy and passion in this ep. 🔥🔥🔥
Incredible conversation. Can you guys explain the concept of cost of carrying. You referred to this when discussing the Bill Zack an trade
@user-gh7ff9nk7z
7 ай бұрын
Bill Ackman* Trade
Awesome intro
I like this. Start with fitness training every time 🤓👍🤓 Get Josh lifting weights 🏋️♀️ 😀👍
I wish y’all challenged Rick more. If everyone should just be in treasury bonds now what is the point of your industry?
@barefootman7569
7 ай бұрын
Having a framework to determine that position and the ability to communicate that maybe now is a good time for that position now? Just spitballing here.
@barefootman7569
7 ай бұрын
Cheers
This show was next level.
👍
Really good stuff. Thank you.
This man looks like Christian Bale from a distance.
This was complex. I need cliff notes
Someone correct me if I’m wrong here but if the top 20% is sitting on cash that they can spend and everyone else is in a credit crunch and we’re already at 8%. Let’s say the Fed goes to 10 it’s going to kill everyone who’s in a credit crunch but the top 20% are still going to be OK and then if the Fed cuts rates prices are going to go up on things aren’t they gas, food, etc correct? If so we’re looking at a FED assisted roll up of assets cause everyone in a credit crunch is going to have to sell their assets to those who aren’t.
@aaronkelly3035
7 ай бұрын
They don’t care about Brokies. If the rich aren’t in recession these people don’t see the struggle
I'm always surprised that no one on these shows talks about the effects of demographics in wage growth (especially at the lower levels). There are fewer Gen Z kids moving into the job market than we had Millennials.
Second post. Excellent.
Terrible assumption: Fed will just jump right in to save us
Best show in some time.
It's just a matter of time. We all know it's coming. Buckle up and be prepared.
50+ 145 lbs bench pressing 300~ thats pretty stout for 145 , 225 is good for that weight by itself.
Absolute savage, saying Pat McAfee when he is talking about Covid
So good
This guy looks and sounds like Hank Scorpio from the Simpsons.
According to the google machine his personal best bench press in competition is 248. He could not BP 2x his bodyweight. He might have benched 300 before he cut a bunch of weight. He had a good story to tell and didn't need to embellish it.
Bro, where did you get your cardigan?
@bytesizefinance9169
7 ай бұрын
P.S. I love it and want to buy it
"The guy making the fries" still doesn't make enough. Not even close. Lol more 60.
@sparksmcgee6641
7 ай бұрын
What is enough? Right now today's dollars.
Great show and guest. He was interrupted a lot, you guys need to let your guests finish their thoughts. Maybe Josh as a single host would work better?
@sparksmcgee6641
7 ай бұрын
Good points I noticed on this one but I think they'll get a better vibe if they spend more time together. Which hopefully they will. The two person does create a buffer from the interviewer tangents.
@no_goo
7 ай бұрын
Watch the solo episode batnik did 2 weeks ago. No interruptions. Thought they were actually pretty good this episode. Didn’t find myself getting annoyed by interruptions at any point like in past shows
@sideline4937
7 ай бұрын
@@sparksmcgee6641 Perhaps the first half can be a solo interviewer to give the guest plenty of time to present their information, then bring the pair together as a comedy routine. Josh is quite the funny guy and he loves using Michael as a foil😄
Guys, we all nerds here. We don't do this fitness stuff 😂
Batnick with the zingers
Q3 GDP growth was 4.9% in real terms?? I thought it was nominal. Holy ...
My reality… rent is going up 7%, not 2%., never mind food, car loan and credit card interest rates. Statistics is fun for you guys, but reality is hard for us working income folks.
Bond Vigilantes you mean Love Vigilantes the Great New Order song JB.
The MMT people were right.... bonds (high interest rates) are just government stimulus for rich people; It's poor and middle-class people subsidizing (not having access to affordable credit) rich people. It's just more "trickle down" garbage, that Josh has discovered doesn't work.
I mean yah burger flippers at McDonald’s make more than they did 5 years ago in dollars. But their 25% increase is outpaced by the 40% increase in cost of living so they are worse off. I would think he knows that.
What is the trillion dollar question?
@sparksmcgee6641
7 ай бұрын
Where do bonds go???
@GrayBlanket
7 ай бұрын
@@sparksmcgee6641 Thank you!
💤 💤 let me know when the yield curve normalizes from inverted.
6 -10% preferreds
9% increase on min wage or 5% of six figures lol. I need a high yield job😂
I think it’s funny that these guys have Grantham on and still don’t understand the bear argument, which is fairly simple, with a lot of history to back it. The real question is when not if. And like every recession, we are in the stage of “it’s been a year where is it, things are fine, even though all this data is very concerning, the answer must be the market is unkillable” Maybe MMT has changed the game, and we are just going full in on inflation/wealth inequality. Also real wages aren’t up for the bottom, that’s tagged to CPI, which we all know is kinda bullshit by now. It’s merely a measure of what median urban wage earners are making not true inflation. When I see people parrot that they are making 18$ in Dayton at fast food places I know they are reading the misleading ads where they put up to in finis print. I live here and Tampa Bay is more expensive and none of these people are making more than 15. Shit first year electrician apprentice makes 14 an hour.
Let the man speak, good grief.
Sweater szn 🔥
It’s not that complicated…there’s too much money in circulation.
If McDonald’s worker is getting 17 an hour without a master’s degree and growing wage at 10%, you bet I’m using that for justification at my review to get an commensurate increase. If not that gap closes quickly and I am working at McDonald’s and displace that worker.
PARTY on🎉
@cliffpeebles9705
7 ай бұрын
TGIF MWC
@midwestcannabis
7 ай бұрын
@@cliffpeebles9705 Thank God Its THE COMPOUND AND FRIENDS 🥳✌️🥳✌️✌️🥳✌️🥳✌️🥳✌️🥳🥳✌️ Party on Cliff 'Ol Pal! 🥳✌️🥳
@cliffpeebles9705
7 ай бұрын
@@midwestcannabis 👍 You are the King of emojis!
@midwestcannabis
7 ай бұрын
@@cliffpeebles9705 🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳✌️✌️✌️✌️
🎉🎉🎉🎉
Sorry to interrupt but the Spaniards stole gold , I just watched a documentary on the Incas
@sparksmcgee6641
7 ай бұрын
Silver mined from the America's is what caused massive inflation in Europe. Is was literally the money used everyday. Gold wasn't that much by comparison. Look at thw total mining numbers through 1650 or 1700
Tailrisks= declining revenues for the next 5 yrs
@indianajones3315
7 ай бұрын
Lower inflation = lower revenues
@allanpickett9419
7 ай бұрын
Hard to say
@allanpickett9419
7 ай бұрын
Lower rates= Higher revenues
The Algos don't care about the FED.
@echoeversky
7 ай бұрын
Demographics is fate and for the next 10 years it's going fubar.
GDP is pretty much government spending. Great job for missing that part.
@Reutzel507
7 ай бұрын
No mention of the jobs being added are government jobs. Which is not an actual sign of a robust economy. Also no mention of the job revisions. They are revising the jobs down to the point you are losing the jobs that were created.
@aaronkelly3035
7 ай бұрын
I wish they would have Peter schiff on
@Reutzel507
7 ай бұрын
@@aaronkelly3035 He would spend the whole episode telling them how wrong they have it.
Who is this guy ?
How is this guy 145 lbs lol crazy
So second soft landing in 60 years? Yeah, I don’t think so…
ppl like to talk about incremental upgrades of iphone. So what? Why is that a problem? I own 11, my partner 12, it is not like I switch phones every year. I do not live in US to trade in. Closest apple store is 700km away. You have resellers. but that is about it. And those ppl that talk about incremental upgrades do change them every year. What an irony.
Stocks are going to suck for the rest of the 20's
cnbc read as if the gdl was 2.9% so ... what is truth?