The Real Fiscal Cliff: How to Spot the Ledge | Peter Schiff
Archived from the live Mises.tv broadcast, this lecture by Peter Schiff was presented at the Mises Circle in Manhattan: "Central Banking, Deposit Insurance, and Economic Decline" at The Metorpolitan Club in New York City on September 14, 2012. Includes an introduction by Llewellyn H. Rockwell, Jr. Music by Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com).
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I wish, I would very much like Peter Schiff for President.
@xsw882
4 жыл бұрын
hes merely an investor, he would be terrible for the working class
@jjmcwill1881
3 жыл бұрын
@@xsw882 K
@janstrotmann7686
3 жыл бұрын
@@xsw882 the working class would Benefit from Falling Prieces. (Once the economy starts to resteucture and once people realisice that The government is not there to Feed them
@TheAdamAdy
Ай бұрын
@@janstrotmann7686Thats the case of Argentina now. Theyre going through pain, but will benefit in the long run
Mises Institute always keeps it classy. Always a great speech when it's coming from Peter.
Wow. We must protect Peter schiff at all costs.
The fuck are we talking about diets for? The speech Schiff just gave is the type of speech we should not be taking for granted. This is brilliant stuff. Spread it.
Thank you, Mises Institute! Peter Schiff is amazing, and it would make a great study to go back and analyze from recorded video data how Peter has been right, and the laughing stuffed shirts and blouses were so, so wrong. He knows the principles and economic laws involved, and thus has the ability to predict reliably!
I was there at the Metropolitan Club when they gave this. The day before this the Fed had announced QE3 which pretty much led to Peter Schiff exploding onto the scene in this speech. He's always full of energy and knowledge, but you could definitely tell that the previous day's announcement filled him with twice the vigor.
Wow, I've been a listener of Peter for about three years. Only recently discovered Tom woods and mises u. Never thought I would see mises posting peter. The best crossover since the last spiderman movie
Keep up the great work Peter!
Always good to hear you speak... you have so much knowledge...
Schiff as always w/ no note cards - like a boss.
Peter Schiff is a very smart speaker.
I'm glad I can watch him on youtubes
Peter Schiff and Jim Rickards "get it." They should be President and VP.
@112brandon
6 жыл бұрын
That would be an interesting ticket!
Also...a serious topic with a sense of humor added. I enjoyed listening very much.
Awesome ambiance at this venue.
Well said my friend. Very well said.
This guy is GREAT! Every word he says is true!
very valuable speech !
He talked so fast I feel like I got 2 hours worth of info in just 41min. Great stuff!
Great video, thanks for the upload :-)
Well said Chaz.
Thanks Peter
like? He might have been off on timing... but his thinking is accurate and rational. Personally I appreciate his voice and perspective. It will help a lot of people prepare and avoid disaster.
Much truer today than then
No teleprompter no notes all from the heart
following that bit of advice will do a ton of good and roll back a ton of problems.
mises institute has got some pretty awsome facalities, looks like they are getting alot more money in :) good to see
Peter speaks truth.
Peter schiff is my NIGGA KEEPIN it 💯
At 28:00 . Great statement about the relationship between freedom and jobs and the results of the last election.
That crack on the wall behind him in the midst of all that hand made glory is extremely symbolic
Schiff on point as usual.
He is referring to the demand 'curve', not the equilibrium point. And more to the point, when he says 'demand' he is very likely possibly referring to infinite 'needs' relative to finite means. He also says even in this video that people can only demand as much as they produce (which is true), so he's not 'wrong', it is merely that the language we use is imprecise.
Because you say he never has new material and that's just not true. I've watched almost every video he's made and I listen to his radio show daily and he ALWAYS has new material. He is persistent because he sticks to his own convictions. He doesn't hide predictions he made that haven't come true like many others do. He repeats a lot of material because he always has a new audience and that's how you spread your message.
That was almost 4 years ago Rick Santelli gave his rant. Hard to believe it was that long ago.
Secretary Geithner did give an interview on C-Span where he said that medicare and medicaid were actually a fairly small percentage of the GDP and that the main contributor to the national debt was the Bush tax cuts. It is also true that the Senate already passed a tax package largely representing the Simpsons Boles plan but, as speaker, Boehner wouldn't even offer it up for a vote. As you have shown in a previous video, even Ronald Reagan said "social security has nothing to do with the debt."
I come from 2018 and the debt is now 21 trillion. I have no idea where it will end but the ledge has to be soon.
@hubblebublumbubwub5215
4 жыл бұрын
I come from 2019 and the debt is now 22.5 trillion
@georgebushdidcovid1919
4 жыл бұрын
Hubblebub Lumbubwub over 24 today
@koenpostma912
3 жыл бұрын
Well, it's just at 27.5 trillion. Nothing to worry about folks
@epicpancho5459
Жыл бұрын
$31 trillion club 😎
LOL. Schiff is so funny. He's like a DJ who comes to a gig and has no idea what he's going to play. Just pulls the cats out of the bag and makes it work. A Boss indeed.
Jefferson!!! I want that report ON MY DESK first thing tomorrow, and if it's not there, you can kiss your job goodbye!
I listen to Peter to learn about real economics... but he's worth listening to for the entertainment value alone. This guy can take someone with zero interest in economics and make it fun enough to want to learn it. I was a guy who had no interest in econ, but youtube vids from Schiff and Jim Rogers piqued my interest, and now I'm reading Rothbard, Mises, and Hazlett.
nice answer :)
@caseyrayz I misunderstood you. Thanks for the clarification.
The Ludwig Von Mises Institute is great! If you found this video to be informative please support LVMI
35:00 LOL!! Awesome. The dollar - "...Not even soft enough to have a legitimate use"
@keesdenheijer7283
4 жыл бұрын
35:00 ?
I feel like this is another future "Peter Schiff Was Right" video in the making.
Schiff, bang on as usual. -
Yes, I also wish Peter would run for our next President. I worry about my future finances and worry about what kind of financial life my children will have in 10 years.
If you are preparing, you should tell no one that you are. If you have already told people, you should divide up your stash, one being a throw away that your 'friends' can loot, the other being the one only you know about.
Schiff makes a lot of sense.
When was this speech done? Anyone know? Thanks
You're link isn't working even with the spaces removed. If it's a YT video, just put everything after the first forward slash after the end of com
I enjoy the street wise economics of this guy. Just don't think that the only reason people work is to earn money and buy goods. I think work can have intrinsic value as well. It's part of a balanced life.
Hi5, Mr. Schiff!
The value of real estate is determined by the cost and structure of its financing relative to its cash flow. For a steady payment, the Present Value (PV) goes up as the periodic interest rate goes down, and vice versa. By setting artificially low interest rates, that props up the PV of real estate, especially commercial real estate. The intent is to avoid technical default (margin call) on commercial loans with strict loan-to-value ratios. Rates go up, PV goes down triggers a margin call on LTV.
cool story bro.
@martin kelly. Were you listening to what Peter Schiff was saying here?! We need to have the Fed STOP printing dollars, reduce the size of government, immediately back our dollars with something of true value (gold, diamonds, etc) and have the Fed at some time raise interest rates.
Here for a recap of the financial crisis. 2023
That's what I was thinking. I can't imagine that JP Morgan Chase would be benevolent. Malevolent yes.
@PVBOG me too. Peter and RP I credit. I credit one of my former coworkers got me listening to PSchiff and it was my gateway into libertarian values.
I think it will take longer than anyone thinks for the dollar to collapse but agree with Peter that it is coming and when it does it will happen very quickly. I also wonder how long the bond bubble can continue it's bull market.
Peter what about the over production of processed foods? The price of commodities is forcing processors to produce more before the truly extreme high spike in commodities(Q1-2013)
Diluting the currency diminishes its purchasing power. The debt appears to become easier to pay off, but this approach pushes the price of everything else you might want to bye higher. You attack the debt from a nominal angle by inflating your currency, but eventually you destroy your ability to get what you want/need.
The stimulus did improve unemployment and gdp growth, the data is clear on that (and if we understand basic sectoral accounting balances & the conditions of deleveraging within the private sector we know what it's effects were going to be apriori, anyway). It was gravely insufficient but it was still a significant help. TARP is a completely different discussion. I'm sure we'd find much we agree on there.
awesome speech the gov. needs to use this man and try to get things back in order but the big egos in gov. wouldnt alow it so clamp on your repel lines were going over the cliff !!!!!!!!
There's plenty of John Galts who try as much as possible to avoid the system (see agorism). Schiff chooses to continue fighting the war of ideas on the front lines. Don't know if he'll be successful, but at least we'll be able to say we told you so.
Well said... But, one Important question? Now, who pays the HUGE bill that will have compounding interest in the stratosphere by the time my daughters are my age? That's unfortunately where I have to digress: Schiff is correct in saying "We will pay for it (the Wall Street debacle) now or we will pay ALOT more for it later AND it will be much more painful." The point is some companies should have bit the bullet to make room for others who were more adept and also more competent.
my bank offered me a fixed rate mortgage that is lower than my current 6% rate. No closing costs, no fees. Not sure what the hook is but I am assuming they don't have all of the documentation and want to sell the "new"mortgage as soon as it's refinanced with no cash out. You are probably right about #2 but we are still just printing money that isn't backed up by gold.
"The star of KZreads". :)
11:40 Crazy to think 11 years ago Peter asked what would happen if the interest on the national debt reached 1 trillion dollars In 2023 that actually happened haha... seemed crazy at the time but Peter was right
@TheAdamAdy
Ай бұрын
Peter is always right when it comes to economics and bitcoin. I would ignore his gold and bitcoin arguments though
Watching this in June 2019 and the FED is still chasing its 2% inflation target 😂 😂 However, dark clouds are now gathering on the horizon, people are starting to smell the storm already and it is going to be a big one!
@epicpancho5459
2 жыл бұрын
I wish I was into economics before the bad happened
@epicpancho5459
2 жыл бұрын
November 2021 it's at 10%
@saeed9932
2 жыл бұрын
February 2022 : CPI is 7.5%
September 2021 We are about to fall faster than superman 🦸♂️ at magic mountain ⛰
So true :)
Mises Circle in Manhattan "Central Banking, Deposit Insurance, and Economic Decline". September 14-14 2012
I'd say that as soon as an organization has to fund itself by force is the point that that institution has gone off the fiscal cliff.
Money is too important to be left to government. Money is 1/2 of every transaction. Government, any government, is the greediest entity on earth and they supply inferior products and services.
@MeneTekelUpharsin
9 жыл бұрын
Banks are not greedy at all, they are only interested in the common good.
keynes wanted savings in good years and spending in bad - that's still central planning which eventually fails outright or has to be "restructured". No bias for pointing out the obvious. And "no one could see it coming" is referring specifically to US Keynesians who either did not see it coming or refused to see it coming to their biases. Kudos to the Swedes for seeing it.
If you look at history, after the Great Depression of the 30's, spending was necessary to climb out of the financial disaster. President Carter cut spending due to a mild recession when he was in office. It finally came through after Reagan took office but people really suffered and thought Carter was disconnected. As long as the Bush tax cuts are taking money out of circulation by padding rich bank accounts, the only solution is to print more money.
it's actually all relative. the US will still be the strongest currency compared to other currencies. that doesn't mean it will become worthless but "worth less"
Damn this appears to be aging quite well at the end of 2018.
To illustrate this further: When the Fed and the gov. increase money supply and public spending, GDP goes up. Not just nominally, but "overall production" really increases, driven by more artificial demand. Otherwise there would be no such thing Austrians call "boom" and no business cycle at all. And since this is the case, demand can not be "infinite" ("human wants" or "desires" are). We don't need to deny this part of the equation, but to stress the other one, the inevitable bust.
Good lecture and yes i'm inspired to educate others Yes i'm capitalist and i will protect capitalism with life The government is guilty and i vow to never live for the sake of state and i will say no to collectivism
"Human Action" by Ludwig von Mises. If you want to learn something start there.
There's a difference between saving/investing to cause growth and just squandering it away on useless goods.
Ron Paul / Peter Schiff 2012, David M Walker Treasury Secretary.
Dillon, first off if the dollar lost 15% of its value, gold would be higher then 2000.00, but i got hear this.
We already went over the fiscal cliff. It's realizing that it's a long free fall and it takes time before public feels the bottom when US dollar looses it's purchase power and remaining savings are destroyed through massive inflation.
Housing bubble 2.0 is here Peter!
It helps if you study some basic economics. I'm really not trying to insult you, I think it would help. You don't see the three different types of spending: 1) spending which ends the chain of production (consumption, paying for something which you intend to use for its own sake); 2) spending which furthers production (paying employees, buying equipment, buying materials, investment to these ends); 3) spending by the government. When Schiff complains about spending, he's referring to 1 & 3.
If you want greater clarification on any of my points, I'd be more than happy to answer a private message. It's tough with such limited space. If you think I just speak utter nonsense, we can just leave it at that. :)
The debt is worn down by inflation in 'real' not nominal terms. Schiff says that this problem has to be solved with a long held-off crash with high unemployment..these people won't be buying anything more than the food on their tables. It makes sense to me that a better way around the problem would be to allow wages to depreciate through inflation and thereby reduce firms costs and make the unemployment shock a lot lower
Dillon, just because gold supplies have increased for centuries does not mean it is not in demand! Spot gold have outperformed the gold miners, because it's cheaper to buy it then mime it! that means gold is still cheap, you cant look at gold in terms of its trading for 1730.00, you have to compare to the value of other assets, and its purchasing power. Peter said it best. if you have a quarter(pre-1965) you can buy a gallon a gas, fiat money loses, gold wins. They print, i will keep buying!
Peter Schiff 2016
Who is John Galt?
it relates to reality because vegetables become increasingly devoid of vitamins and minerals. They don't contain 1/100th of what they used to.
No one can tell you what the final "price" of gold will be in any given currency. An ounce of gold is an ounce of gold. Currency can be expanded or contracted. Gold is money. As a currency expands, the "price" expands. QE "Infinity" tells you that the "price" of gold will continue to expand over time, and if the USD does go into crisis, then you can be sure that gold will skyrocket.
What you said is true, but it only looks at one effect of inflation. There are others too, like the one I mentioned. Inflation also impacts unemployment and the labour force size. If you want to understand these things, study some economics.
Increasing the "number" of "dollars" in relationship to the "number" of "debt-dollars" is a "nominal" approach. PAYING off the debt is the "real" approach. Inflation reveals the intrinsic value of a fiat currency. Zero. Make no mistake. The US people will have to PAY for this debt one way or another... In my opinion it will be paid with a currency crisis and a collapse in purchasing power. I'm moving my time/energy into precious metals, land, and family/friends.
September 14
I was there and it did not feel like 41 minutes long.
Well, I understand your point to a certain extent. But what does this have to do with the terminology of 'spending' in basic economics? My statements weren't intended to explain the entirety of economics, and they explained nothing about the problems in our current economy.