>1 in 11,007 Chance >007 Chuya is double 0 agent confirmed.

@Loxu69

6 жыл бұрын

waiiiiiiiiiit a second THIS RUN WAS ON AGENT chuya will never be a true double 0 agent

@oxygengraphafonadelaverberator

6 жыл бұрын

Chuya is a true player, trust me.

@isq6672

6 жыл бұрын

god is real, trust me

@klooger28

6 жыл бұрын

As someone who has caught many cheaters in the past, having friends of the accused come out and say ""he doesn't cheat because i am friends with him"Is completely meaningless, he may or may not be legit, but these type of comments never help anything, and in my experience are more common when the person has infact cheated.

@l-l

6 жыл бұрын

Cockulous Love your aesthetic ♡

Bro really busted out the negative binomial distribution calculator

Here’s a bit of moderately incredible proof which your video provides: The spawn time of the last aliens wasn’t known when Chuya did his record speed run, yet it still complies with that rule. I don’t know the answer, I’m not even a gamer, but it does seem plausible: When luck is involved (Random Number Generators) the best runs will always contain extremely low statistical probabilities at the highest level of competition. The key for me is that Chuya’s run complies with a then-unknown rule to a few tenths of a second. That seems highly improbable unless it is in fact genuine. Just a thought.

@slothbin

4 жыл бұрын

This is a very good point

@dang476

4 жыл бұрын

Yeah the whole premise of poor odds to have such great spawns falls apart when you consider that will always be the case for the top runs, since that's literally why they are the World Records.

@mapler90210

4 жыл бұрын

this is the piece that stands out to me as well

@stephen827

4 жыл бұрын

This entire video is just an attack on a runner whitegoose doesn't like. Zero evidence except "he got too lucky wahhhhh."

@emperorofgaming8146

4 жыл бұрын

Stephen Goose never said he didn’t like the runner, and even said he might have done it. While the point raised above is certainly great, I’m sure Goose has thought of it. Don’t be so quick to judge.

Most people dont know that Goose is a tenured professor at the University of Speedrunning.

"This speedrun is by Takizawa, from Japan" *Googles most generic Japanese imagery possible*

@immatureeffects6634

6 жыл бұрын

Paul Pince Great profile picture.

@Orbitthemaster

6 жыл бұрын

I catch a Street Fighter 2 reference (E. Honda Stage to be precise).

@RedHairdo

5 жыл бұрын

For US players, Goose should use an oil barrel picture.

@theironsword1954

5 жыл бұрын

@@RedHairdo Sounds more like Germans, good replacement for the swastika. For the Americans, Julius Caesar getting stabbed to death by the UN and NATO.

@handsomebrick

5 жыл бұрын

@@RedHairdo Why not a cowboy with a six-shooter?

I don't know which Goose I like better, proper clean cut sweater Goose, or cursing 3 buttons loosened, sweating, aggressively celebratory after a major speedrun victory Goose. Either way it's always a delight.

@InkosiDeVinyl

6 жыл бұрын

LOL

@ianipoo

6 жыл бұрын

RWhiteGoose I first saw you speedrun at AGDQ when you and the other guy did Goldeneye with split controls and I loved it. Everyone said you looked like Vince Vaughn and my first thought was Aaron from the Walking Dead. Lol love your stuff man!!

@JackTheripper911

6 жыл бұрын

Marc R marc R..... Marc Rutzou?

@JackTheripper911

6 жыл бұрын

Marc R you've been found...... The ultimate truth is MINE

@LIVEREALFOOLED

6 жыл бұрын

RWhiteGoose It's fake RWhitegoose the black and white footage should be a give away. It's probably been recaptured on an emulator through an AMD card that used to have composite. It's an illusion, you would get far better results from a vhs so why do it this way?

This is a 34:03 long video, and that's my time. But it's weird, Chuya's time for watching this video clocks in at 33:59.

@kodi0223

5 жыл бұрын

had to have been listening to jpop while watching, it's the only way

@dddmemaybe

5 жыл бұрын

Everytime you listen to Jpop, reality distorts and takes 4 seconds off your life. You might say you miss them. But to a speed runner it's a great reward. Hell, put one of these guys on a spaceship into orbit while the recording device for their run is on Earth. Might save a millisecond. _Ooh- my precious._

@Urrarg

5 жыл бұрын

@@kodi0223 It's true, I was listening to Jpop and finished this video in 32:15. Not even Chuya will beat my score.

@sunnyhvar1992

5 жыл бұрын

Chuya isn't going to watch this video until it has a million views.... he has to be one in a million

@firesoups13

5 жыл бұрын

This is the funniest thing I've read on a YT comment in a long time. Good on you and thanks for the laugh.

Skedar is my new least favourite word

While I'm pretty indifferent toward the validity/prestige of this run, your videos stand by themselves as great entertainment. The formatting, dialogue, and delivery are top notch, even for those of us totally unfamiliar with the elite community.

@soupe_yt

4 жыл бұрын

yeah. tbh i don't care about these games and they're speedrunning history until I see that he has a video on it and then I'm so emotionally invested

I enjoy how obsessive this video is.

@roddydykes7053

6 жыл бұрын

Robert Syrett someone should make a “Skedor” counter lol

@_j_t_p_

6 жыл бұрын

same. i feel like obsession is part of the nature of speedrunning

@JeronimusJack

6 жыл бұрын

ye i don't really care about the subject i just enjoyed the slowly crumble of sanity hehe.

@OnyDeus

6 жыл бұрын

No just a hobby.

@melbournetransport8987

6 жыл бұрын

*this channel

Watching this i learned the word 'skedar' and within 10 minutes it had lost all meaning.

3 жыл бұрын

Skedar is also the swedish word for 'spoon' and it's pronounced 'hwedar', i've been here under a year and I hate it

Hey Goose. I've never speed runned in my entire life nor have I played Goldeneye. However, I've watched nearly all your videos (including the 2 hour long videos of levels I've literally never heard of of). You make everything incredibly interesting. It's fascinating.

@EliteWW

6 жыл бұрын

Aarron 123 same, im invested in a community ive never been a part of

@Rianoria

6 жыл бұрын

I'm exactly the same

@gajofre

6 жыл бұрын

Me too.. I'm just a regular player, but loooove to watch the speedrunning community, they are awesome. Great videos Goose.

@soupe_yt

4 жыл бұрын

same!! It's videos like these that edge me closer to speedrunning every day

What if because of this video, the whole world puts chuya on blast and he actually comes out and produces the original? The drama is better than wrestling.

Can't wait to rub one out to this vid

@PCReboot

6 жыл бұрын

Legend

@Bestien

6 жыл бұрын

To the top

@giraffecat

6 жыл бұрын

kzread.info/dash/bejne/p2aMmal8hcvAetY.html

@112ghostclown

6 жыл бұрын

Masturbating to a video where you dont have the record is speed cucking I guess. I let Goose decide on that one. Keep it up Karl

@OmegaVideoGameGod

6 жыл бұрын

@Karl, It's Yuri Soren from The-Elite, when I was on the Elite before I got myself banned because I wanted to move on. I just wanted to say you're amazing and I don't doubt you can beat because if a TAS run of attack ship agent can prove it's possible, you certainly can do it as well. I'll be cheering for you.

I think he did it. I think he caught lighting in a bottle and wouldn't be able to get even close again. The beautiful bastard.

@christinamorrigan8573

3 жыл бұрын

ONE IN A MILLIONNNN

It falls so far short of a reasonable burden of proof. Submitting a video that bad with idiotic music overlayed would makes it easier to dismiss without having to worry so much about the probability of attaining the record. Is the run legit : maybe. Did he prove it: no.

@four-en-tee

4 жыл бұрын

It honestly is a "guilty until proven innocent" situation we have. Until someone can definitively get a 19 second ending and record it on video, its safe to say the run is probably fake.

@Terranigmah

4 жыл бұрын

he just edited out the waiting time... that's why the vid has bad quality and is shaking, so noone can spot the cuts

@user-wh2zb5cm1f

4 жыл бұрын

bro this is from 9 years ago, people weren't anally irritated redditors back then and you could just post a video.

@greganzi8874

4 жыл бұрын

Someone else here said this: the fact that the alien spawns follow the rule they did not know at the time proves it. I don’t really know enough about the game to say anything about this, but it sounds plausable.

I've gotten MMO drops rarer than that run. Remember, rare things happen. it is only who it happens to that is the coincidence.

@jazzabighits4473

4 жыл бұрын

@Sparka But you do it more than that many times. You don't have more than half your runs fail on the way

@reptilianflizzy497

4 жыл бұрын

nodvick I was gonna say exactly this, I have multiple items in MMOs that have confirmed drop rates between 1in 20,000 and 1in 50,000, a few of these items require boss fights that last 2-10min. It seems very probable that a game with this level of RNG would have very low probabilities on its top runs.

@reptilianflizzy497

4 жыл бұрын

Jazza BigHits you actually do have close to half your runs fail due to reliance on other players to do things properly and boss fights often last up to 10+mins in an MMO whereas a level on perfect dark might take as long as 3 minutes or less, players with these rare mmo items almost never run the boss/raid thousands of times, they just get lucky running it a couple times per day and hoping for the best.

Did Todd Rogers upload this run..? Where’s the coffee stain

@Rmac524

6 жыл бұрын

on the in-game timer

@mracorn2669

6 жыл бұрын

This guy started the run in 2nd gear and was actually able to reach gear 20 an impossible gear to reach by the end of the run

@MatthewBaran

5 жыл бұрын

Savage sir 😂

Perfect Ace just tied this record!

Statistician checking in here. The odds of getting at least 3 successful checks in the first 35 is about 0.035%, or 1 in 2,815. What you're missing in your calculations are the many combinations which are slower on 1-2 of the 3 segments, but still faster overall. For what it's worth, I have serious doubts about your methodology in general here. Speedrun.com has half a million database entries. Those uploaded runs likely represent about 50-100 million attempts at various categories and games. Events less likely than this have happened hundreds of thousands of times. When you begin to look at short runs which contain large amounts of RNG, it's only natural that the leaders in those categories got incredibly lucky.

@markmccarthy8336

6 жыл бұрын

Particle physicist checking in here. I agree... it looks like another example of the "look elsewhere effect"

@MrAllallalla

6 жыл бұрын

The first things he's shown has no relevance cause it doesnt make sense. The 2nd one is pretty close but just a tad too high because of the problems. But with his 3rd he totally fucked it up. He discarded 75% of all runs with less than 35 checks just because a small percentage of the higher ones are slower...

@captaindapper5020

6 жыл бұрын

College drop out checking in here. I don't really have anything interesting to add to the discussion, just wanted to drop my credentials. Actually the question wasn't "what are the chances that some speedrunner listed in speedrun.com playing a short game with large amounts of RNG would get 1/14000 odds" the question was "How likely is the outcome of this one very particular run". I would have probably approached the problem similarly to goose; counting the total number of states possible for the denominator, counting the number of states where there were 33 success and 3 fails, and subtracting the number of those states that would result in the right door opening too quickly... idk

@darknutgaming5510

5 жыл бұрын

I have a WR in an almost completely RNG Arcade game. It took literally about 10k completed runs to even have 7-10 chances at a good score, chances. I have 4 APWR runs and just from the RNG side of things, those magical times might not even come up as often than the statistics show. My game is 1:39 secs long and had, what I considered, 4 segments. Most, and I mean most like 95% of runs were over in 5 to 15 secs. I was lucky and the reset to starting was near instantaneous and I even reset to start 9/10 games-before they even began, because of the pre-start RNG. With 10k games completed (I once played like 7 hrs straight) and nearly 9x that never even began, I had 4 runs “above previous world record” . . . . . But there was a run . . . . . So unlikely . . . . I had broken the 2p world record with a friend earlier and was hot. We had taken a break and stopped filming. I popped back on to stay loose and I literally doubled the Previous WR. It’s an inconceivable score. The game is 40+ years old and no one could imagine a score like this possible. I have a photo but no video. I broke the game. I cracked the physics and had theeeee best luck with the RNG. I’m kinda glad I didn’t get the video because it’d’ve killed anyone’s hope of ever scoring on that game ever again. The RNG is unlikely but it’s there, you just have to place yourself in the right position to take advantage of it when it pops up in your favor. I think the Perfect Dark video is real, he shoots the last dude with like three shots. As soon as I saw that I had instant flashes to what I considered imaginary timers for events (#3 spawning) going off in my head (like the QB’s ‘in the pocket’ timer, in football) Oh snap, it just hit me, if the hypothesis is the video is faked. Would he have used a TAS? If so, how would the TAS respond to the RNG of the #1 spawning/shooting/turning/reacting to right door opening? With the odds that the video states, it seems MORE probably that what we saw was a human reacting to badass RNG than a TAS made to take advantage of a 1/11k ending. What did I miss? And the Arcade game was Death Race :)

@Disatiere

5 жыл бұрын

IT Guy Checking in here, Using probability to disprove something is legitemate or not is silly in general. just because a specific thing working out how it did is rare doesnt mean it never happened or will never happen

REAL LEFT-DOOR SKEDAR HOURS WHO UP

@shambles07

6 жыл бұрын

i love you

@ArgoLovely

6 жыл бұрын

raya nami begone

@napalmkitty6686

6 жыл бұрын

REPORTING IN MR CARINGTON IS GONNA HAVE MY NUTS AFTER THIS FUCK UP

@Koboldfunnywow

5 жыл бұрын

Look at this furry bird

@Sheerspeechcraft

5 жыл бұрын

LEFT BEEF GANG

22:29 minor note, you're calculating the probability that it happened on that byte check *or earlier* Now, this is the correct approach, it's just that you said it wrong.

one of the most historic speed runs of all time. full credit to ace for finally matching it.

So I'm not an expert in Perfect Dark's inner game mechanics at all, in fact, I have no idea how it works...BUT I am a programmer and I can potentially add some insight that wasn't mentioned in this video: 1. You said that every 2-4 frames, a 'byte check' is made. It is likely that the in-game 'byte checks' are determined using a modulus on the frame number the game has played on. so in other words: if [FRAME_NUM_NOW] % 3 == 0, then BYTE_CHECK If the discrepency between 2-4 happens only at the beginning and end of a sequence, then this would possible explain why. However, if the 2-4 frame check variance occurs midway through a time period (how you would you ever even know?), its possible that the same modulus check is being used, just not on the frame number, but something else. 2. Your probability calculations are not entirely reliable. In all of your calculations, you are assuming that each probably of a successful check is independent. In the case of computers/video games (especially older game like Perfect Dark), they would be using whats known as a 'pseudo random number generator'. This actually the very opposite of random. a PSRN works off an 'initial seed' value, and from there the next 'random' number can be exactly determed. It is what's known as a pure function -> the same input will always produce the same output. So for instance, lets say the PRNG algorithm is called f(x), where x is the seed. If the initial seed is 10, then f(x) will come at as 238 (as an example) every single time 10 is input. That value of 238 becomes the new seed to the next call for a random number: f(10) -> 238 f(238) -> 17 f(17) -> 111 f(111) -> 3 and so on. The purposes of these PRNG functions is to simulate randomness, despite being completely deterministic. Knowing this means that the probability of success on Check 2 might be dependent on Check 1. And Check 3 is dependent on Check 2, who was dependent on Check 1. I know some other speed runners in other games have reverse engineered the random number generators used in games in order to benefit their 'luck'. As for how Perfect Dark works though...I have no idea, but its pretty much guaranteed that its using some sort of PRNG. Just my 2 satoshi.

@handsomebrick

5 жыл бұрын

There are people who exploit the seeds but it seems very unlikely in a game like Perfect Dark that is constantly generating random numbers in response to the player's actions, especially at the end of a level.

I have never speedran anything but u make this shit seem so interesting.

Seems like another case of a PAL user in Japanese territory, which pretty much explains the terrible capture feed. The only thing I can think of is this guy had to have known something about the level since the forums showed he's hit a 19 ending before he even set a 2:06 (claiming a 19 ending on a 2:13 run). That means that not only are the odds of getting a 19 ending are so low only 1 person has done it, but he has done it on multiple occasions. Maybe PAL version has something different in this level? I don't know much about perfect dark or the expansion pak (much less for PAL), but when you enable 480i (576i here), doesn't the game run at 30fps? If so, is it possible that maybe the game does a doubly byte check at the end (2 byte checks every frame instead of 1)?

@ytrand5254

6 жыл бұрын

Please keep us updated If U Look Into this im Very interested now ( even tho i never speedrunned lol)

@slashermanexe

6 жыл бұрын

Yes, please do! Hopefully it'll shed some light on this mystery

@jameilious

6 жыл бұрын

keep me updated too, this could be it for sure

@FrcNeru

6 жыл бұрын

Actually, if you check his 2:37 in Special Agent (kzread.info/dash/bejne/d5aktZV9Z7WyqcY.html) he seems to get the Right door Skedars nearly as fast as in his 2:06 Either he had a little too much luck, or there is something really going on with PAL

@VGScreens

5 жыл бұрын

Also, has anybody tried messing with or limiting the RNG with a gameshark? That'd be my first approach, but I've never played with PD.

Not gonna lie, I had a mini-heart attack when you said "Kryssstal with her Link to the Past run". My name is Kristal, and I enjoy LttP (though I don't speedrun it), and for a second I thought I was being accused of a crime I had never committed, and was about to be sent to speedrun jail. Which I assume is just playing a really slow game like Desert Bus.

@ImBarryScottCSS

5 жыл бұрын

"Kristal sets new untied world record on Desert bus from speedrun jail, after discovering groundbreaking new exploit allowing you to drive at 45.1mph"

@fukkthisnewupdate8882

4 жыл бұрын

ImBarryScottCSS lmao please

Great job as always man. I can’t help but watch till then end cause your videos are getting so good at telling stories and how you lay out all the information. Keep it up

Yeah it actually seems likely he did it. Seriously it seems more incredible that no one ever got another "19 ending" if the odds really are only 1/14000

@johnsorrows8998

5 жыл бұрын

Well im sure people have had 15 second spawns but werent speedrunning or reset the run because of a mistake made early most runners trash runs if they fall to far behind there personal best split times

@Tehblood

5 жыл бұрын

@@johnsorrows8998 that's exactly the point behind my comment. It's happened before. But it's not just those 20 seconds that decide the run. There a whole bunch of runs that got tossed for early mistakes that rolled 18 19 second ends.

@JorgetePanete

5 жыл бұрын

@@johnsorrows8998 , I'm*

@JorgetePanete

5 жыл бұрын

@@johnsorrows8998 too*

@JorgetePanete

5 жыл бұрын

@@johnsorrows8998 their*

I speedrun various Tetris like tgm3, etc. Nothing else. Yet you are the only content creator that I consistently enjoy, or even watch over half the time. Your writing, your voice, it is all perfection my man. A ton of people appreciate everything you do, and I really wish there were more like you in the community. Your quality is unmatched, in my opinion. Rarely do I ever comment but I felt like after multiple views of your entire collection I have to say something. If it means anything coming from some random, you are appreciated more than you probably know. So start teaching all the other so-called "representatives" of this community how bad you make them look! Cheers from Colorado.

The Skedar cloaking is like Pokemon 1/256 glitch on steroids

Great story tellers in history: William Shakespeare Morgan Freeman Notorious B.I.G. RWhiteGoose

@jamegumb7298

6 жыл бұрын

Shaun Cahill Forgot 3PAC.

@Funnymoney101

6 жыл бұрын

Forgot Summoning Salt

@killernukem5914

6 жыл бұрын

You forgot Slick Rick

@gorbysouls2305

5 жыл бұрын

vaatividya

@fartx211

4 жыл бұрын

Ahoy is a great youtube storyteller. I could listen to that guy all day.

You are one in million 😍😍😍

@anticlimbmax

6 жыл бұрын

Knowing your content, the fact that you're here simultaneously confuses and amazes me.

@SianaGearz

6 жыл бұрын

Uh, i have no idea who you are, but have you seen The Interrogation by randytaylor69?

@Aff3ct000

6 жыл бұрын

*miriyun

@jasonwalker6285

6 жыл бұрын

Lmao my man pig cake out here

@shlonk

6 жыл бұрын

Piggy

1) Video quality is probably explained by playing the PAL 50hz version and recording it onto a Japanese 60hz VCR 2) Judging from his post history, he played that level alot in spring of 2011 (he has regular updates in the "post new times" topic during that period) Not saying that confirms it, but it has some merits

@paradoxzee6834

6 жыл бұрын

That would explain why it is black and white but not the shaking and low quality.

@martinlund9524

6 жыл бұрын

If it was recorded to a VCR it is not that hard to beleve in the poor and shaking quality. A bad VCR and maybe some interfeerenc? this is very common. If you have a microoven that is on they can interrupt the signal or even a light switch that is "almost" on is quite normal also to get bad quality. But how likely is that if you think about it? I did have a few recored movies back then that was "good" quality and often after 1,5-2 hours it would just be shaking or some inteeferrenc.

@flamefusion8963

6 жыл бұрын

I find it believable personally.

@XaneMyers

5 жыл бұрын

@@martinlund9524 Sounds plausible, but what's the possible explanation for the random music? Their recording setup couldn't capture the audio from the TV?

@funnyjoke9225

5 жыл бұрын

Xane Myers he's Japanese, they just kinda do stuff like that

Real of Fake should be not the question here. Should the video be disqualified for such poor quality, no audio, and no time stamp. I can forgive the audio, I can forgive the quality. The time stamp should have had this video disqualified for the very reason that we are all having such a hard time crunching the numbers. The time stamp should be a required method to put this all to rest once and for all. No stamp? Disqualified! No matter how good it seems. My 2 cents after watching this. As there is no way I would be able to know. Sucks for the dude who got the record but if you can't play by a set of defined parameter rules, people will cheat and find a way to usurp those very parameters set. The time stamp was there for a reason and you glaze over it like it shouldn't matter that much. It should be a key point.

@LunaSolarysAD

6 жыл бұрын

Ty this exactly. Retroactively remove that shit. Ain't that hard.

@ChupachuGames

6 жыл бұрын

I think since it was allowed to be added with this quality it would be unfair to remove it after the standards changed

@1upJeCK

6 жыл бұрын

I agree but this looks weirdly altered and probably should have never been allowed..

@BrokenGodEnt

5 жыл бұрын

The defined parameters were not always what they are now. His lack of certain things wasn't as controversial when the run was uploaded, and if we get rid of his run because it doesn't follow modern day rules, we'll have to remove hundreds of runs from hundreds of games. Or else we're just being hypocritical by removing one.

@1upJeCK

5 жыл бұрын

If it just had the timer in the corner it wouldnt look so sketch.. the song isnt helping its case lmao

You can actually find out whether these times are possible if you analyze the random algorithm in Perfect Dark, considering the fact that random algorithms aren't random you can find out (by seeding correctly) if it is possible. And due to it being pseudo-random the actual chance of this happening could be SIGNIFICANTLY less, because similar "byte patterns" is essentially predetermined, so to ACTUALLY determine the chance you would have to know the entire pseudo-random byte pattern.

@PersonOnEarth

5 жыл бұрын

Absolutely true. Even if the odds are truly 1 in 11,000 that doesn't mean it should be suspicious to have been obtained. Sometimes crazy shit happens, once but never again. Sometimes you try and never get it. Some people hit a 1 in 3 million odds on a lottery scratcher buying only one in their lifetime. On the flip side I've personally bought tens of thousands and the best prize I've hit had odds of 1 in 3,600, and I was still lucky to get that. Odds are the furthest thing you can get from black and white when it comes to consistency. Always expect exceptions and never expect to get what you know is possible. You might get 100,000 "perfect" runs on Attack Ship Agent and never get this ending. This run could very well be real. It could be fake. Given that people have analyzed the video as best as possible given the quality and have not conclusively proved it to be fake, I think there's a better chance of it being real than fake and should be left alone until proven otherwise.

The amount of work put into this video is insane. Keep up the good work man I hope his video goes viral

One day I was playing through Mario Kart 64 for my girlfriend, and on Toad's Turnpike I got the exact same time 54:XX for all three laps, down to the hundredths. It was a bad set of laps too, I hit cars on each. I was in absolute shock. Wish I had been streaming/recording, or at least not have casually been mashing A through the results screen.

@jazzabighits4473

5 жыл бұрын

yeah but imagine that happening perfectly on awr run every lap

Another awesome video. I'll never get tired of your work, Goose.

The odds of a leaf falling at an exact specific time at an exact specific time are astronomically small. But leaves fall at specific times to specific spots all the time. To think that events with astronomically small odds don't happen is to vastly underestimate the number of things that happen.

@voidofmind

2 жыл бұрын

Leaves don't fall at specific times to specific spots "all the time". I would venture a guess that it's never happened before actually. Go try it yourself. Go in your yard and look at a leaf on a tree. Then pick a random time and a random position on the ground and see if it falls then/there. It won't. But if you look at a leaf already on the ground, it's a lot easier to "feel" like it was statistically likely to end up there.

@Darenimo

2 жыл бұрын

@@voidofmind I think you miss the point. The point is that if you see a leaf fall to a ground in a specific spot at a specific time, it has done so. Yet the odds of that event happening in exactly that way at exactly that time were so astronomically small, that you could never have predicted it in a million years. If you take all the speedrunners in the world playing all the games in the world for as long as they do, one of them is bound to have something extremely unlikely happen at some time, in some game.

I'm a statistician. I haven't checked your calculations though (too tired at the moment), but remember that any observed run has an incredibly low likelihood of occurring. So we should be careful in judging the validity of a run by using this type of reasoning. Because any the likelihood of any run (good or bad) occurring just the way it did, is incredibly low.

@ig2d

5 жыл бұрын

I'm not a statistician but this argument sounds bogus

@PatRiot-

5 жыл бұрын

He’s saying the odds of replicating any run- no matter how amazing or mundane Are quite low Likely implying that the odds could have happened considering how unlikely it is for any run to happen the way it does in the first place

@maniacturtle

5 жыл бұрын

@@PatRiot- as in.. the odds of his times are exactly the same as the odds of any other times? like... rolling a 1 then a 1 then a 1 is the same as the odds of rolling a 3 then a 2 then a 6

2011 KZread was a weird time where 1/10 videos had just shitty music, low quality, and no actual sound, so this speedrun fell into this category.

This is a ridiculously nerdy, obsessive report about a game that came out nearly two decades ago. I like it. SUBSCRIBED

Great in-depth video, love when people get immersed in subjects like this. It's truly inspiring

I have absolutely no clue why I enjoy this content type so much, I never speedrun anything, watch speedruns, or even know this game *at all*. Quality content I guess its just the history/numbers nerd coming out haha

Maybe he gave up speedrunning to focus on a career of Japanese polished foil balls.

@dantedeloden

6 жыл бұрын

Chalky lol so dank of a comment

@truthful_liar13

6 жыл бұрын

Chalky goddamnit

Fantastic rundown Goose. Thanks for all you do for the community. You make a complete outsider feel like he could talk shop with the pros. I mean, I can't. But it feels like it.

I had a look into this myself out of curiosity, I think Chuya did do it legit, but I would’ve taken down the record until Perfect Ace matched it a few years ago. The awful quality is because Chuya was trying to record a PAL N64 on an NTSC-J VCR, it technically recorded, but the video was in black and white and shuddered constantly. Chuya was running on PAL because Attack Ship is heavily advantaged on PAL as the region impacts Elvis’s behaviour. The lack of timer and audio is suspicious, but he might’ve just disabled the timer as he knew it was unreadable anyway to reduce the distraction. The audio isn’t as suspicious either considering video did once exist with original audio, and the run was likely verified with this, but only the music video survived since these were more popular in the Japanese scene, only the more popular one got reuploaded. Although the lack of timer and audio makes it much easier to hide a splice, the shaking video actually makes it a lot harder, since you’d need to make the shaking match up, and a splice is made more unlikely by the fact that the alien spawn times (unknown at the time of the run) match the legit values to within a few 10ths of a second, if the run was spliced without this knowledge they’d be really unlikely to match. Even the music chosen seems suspicious, a song called One in the Million on a run with almost unbelievable luck? Well, that’s not as bad as you’d think considering the music was likely chosen *because* of the luck, being dubbed over after the video was filmed. The run seems suspicious on the surface, but in reality it would harder to cheat than people expect, and since

@TylerChamb

5 ай бұрын

*t r u l y r e m a r k a b l e*

Ryan Lockwood would have skipped the 206

@TheGlamourNazi

6 жыл бұрын

He is a legend after all. Never seen a 206

@ImTakingYouToFlavorTown

6 жыл бұрын

What's the joke?

@shiny5053

6 жыл бұрын

i'm taking you to flavor town yes

@UltimaKeyMaster

6 жыл бұрын

Just look up Streets 1:12. (And uh, don't click that time code, that'll just jump to that point in THIS video)

@BernardGarcon

6 жыл бұрын

i'm taking you to flavor town my life

This was an insane video. Thank you for making it!

Holy shit, I started this video thinking it was no chance I would watch it to the end, but it happened in a flash. A really good video that is able to hold my attention in this day and age of so many distractions. have my subscription, you earn it!

Someone please tell me what system I can play this on today I miss the game so bad and would die to play it again and how do they record or even stream it

Who would ever need a tape measurer?

This record honestly feels very similar to Marc Rutzuo's dam 00 agent 1:55 with its horrible quality along with being ahead of everyone else's time

Does the Xbox 360 version of the game use the same timing system to determine the speed of events in the level ending? Does the fact that it runs at a faster, more consistent framerate affect the frequency of the random byte checks?

Hey how did Boss get the falcon 2 on attack ship? Is he using the all weapons cheat or is there a way to get it normally?

You assume numbers to be random, but they are just an LFSR sequence. There's usually only tens thousands of possible sequences. Should disassemble and check, but... and if it checks against a piece of ROM, then the result is even less random. Also you're looking at the footage and watching for a splice. But there won't be a splice. What for? When all you need is better luck, just modify the ROM with a Game Shark. And there will likely never be proof! Even if the footage was at good quality and had its audio, there still wouldn't be proof.

@UltimaKeyMaster

6 жыл бұрын

There's also the problem that the old WR doesn't meet the current quality standards of the rankings, so really it *shouldn't* count anymore anyway. But I guess since there's no real proof that it's cheating other than poor video quality, they're not really gonna grandfather the time out since no one has managed it yet.

@oxygengraphafonadelaverberator

6 жыл бұрын

Chuya is my friend and doesn't cheat. I say "friend", as he has been on my friends list for nearly 8 years. I met him when PD came out on the Xbox 360 as an xbla game. He went offline for a few years because of the Fukushima incident but I've seen him back online every now and again. He is def 100% legit. He also is in the top 2 players in the world at Ikaruga.

@DeathBringer769

6 жыл бұрын

Yep, most games/software in general only have pseudo-randomized numbers. Truly randomized numbers are actually quite a bitch, as Random.org can teach you ;)

@handsomebrick

6 жыл бұрын

ROM checks are probably random enough, in any case they're unlikely to be manipulated.

@SianaGearz

6 жыл бұрын

No, not in the sense of being manipulated, but in the sense that they will introduce a distribution skew. At least LFSR is evenly distributed.

"It's my one in twelve thousaaaaaaand..."

Two questions: Is it possible to play this on an emulator at 60fps without affecting gameplay/timer? Is it possible to, with a hexeditor, alter the roll byte so when it rolls is different and/or the odds are better?

Just a question, when going through how fast they can uncloak with the byte check; would using a different version of the game hold different results? Some of the versions should run the byte check faster than others.

It's clear if any splicing happened, it happened at the final uncloaks, perhaps the last one.

@OmegaVideoGameGod

6 жыл бұрын

Maybe it's a TAS run.

@OmegaVideoGameGod

6 жыл бұрын

True.

@mathprodigy

6 жыл бұрын

Yea I'm not for sure but it was just my instincts since that's the most chance- dependent part of it all

@OmegaVideoGameGod

6 жыл бұрын

Very true then there's the beginning part which can be luck based.

@kodeytheneko

6 жыл бұрын

OmegaVideoGameGod tas is against the rules

it seems to me that (as you also mentioned) the wobble in the video could be there to help hide a splice, or it could be an artifact from recording/editing. if the wobble was added to help hide a splice then stabilizing the video would highlight it otherwise why bother making it wobble? it seems to me on first impressions that each frame jumps side to side so if you were to bring the odd frames left a touch and the even frames right a touch so they both line up perfectly again then it would become a stable video and then any jumping that happens after the wobble is removed would be evidence of a splice, unless im missing something on just how the wobble presents itself it should be a simple thing to do in an editing suite. as for the youtube account getting closed down due to copyrights. that is commonly encountered, if you get just 3 ongoing copyright claims at the same time on your account then you are gone. only if you can resolve a copyright claim properly before a thrid occurs or prove the claims are not legitimate can you avoid it, besides not using copyrighted materials obviously. many channels have been closed down temporarily due to a few spurious copyright claims and many more closed permanently due to real copyright claims mounting up. perhaps when he uploaded them he thought they would be safe there and so didnt keep his own copies? Sounds silly but maybe he never foresaw the big copyright banhammer that youtube put in place becoming a problem. the odds are slim but very plausible. without audio to analyze theres only the video to scrutinize. if after making it stable there isnt anything evident then its possible that the odds of it being real are higher than it being fake. this might be one of those claims that never gets resolved due to the evidence being flawed

@J0SHUAKANE

5 жыл бұрын

pal console recorded onto a japanese vcr. thats what makes it do that.

Thanks for making this entertaining and informative video. Controversies aside, it was interesting to learn more about Perfect Dark and the underlying mechanics of speed running attack ship.

That was captivating and thorough. Brilliant stuff

Speedrunning should be banned

@Eddyhartz

6 жыл бұрын

I guess that would stop the cheating

@rogerklotz7737

6 жыл бұрын

ikagura lol

@conkerlive101

5 жыл бұрын

Degenerates

@bbynmmyneedddy8954

5 жыл бұрын

@@conkerlive101 haha

I love all the thought and effort you put into this. It was very interesting. While the odds of that run happening were extremely low, crazier things have happened to me in gaming. In pokemon Y, I ran into a horde of 5 gligars, 2 of which were shiny. I haven't done the math but I'm sure the odds of what I encountered were lower than what happened to that guy.

Best work so far. Keep em coming

Can someone explain to me what the ending means? I couldn’t understand from the video. Like the 19 ending, what does that mean.

What are the chances of getting 2:06 without first getting 2:09, 2:08 or 2:07? Surely that would be astronomical?

@TheSynStalker

6 жыл бұрын

sammosammy That's an interesting point. With it being so unlikely you'd think that they'd hit every time along the way if they were even good enough to take advantage of the lightning-strike odds.

@jamesknapp64

6 жыл бұрын

on the order of 1/30, remember to get below a 2:10 is around say ~1/500 luck, remember the end is almost all about luck. There is next to no gameplay at the end. Thus *anyone* needs 1/500 luck at the end, then there is a chance that in fact you get an extra 1/30 on top of that (to make ~1/14000) luck a simliar thing could be on the Goldeneye 007 levels: Frigate Secret Agent, (gooses first Goldeneye Speedlore episode) Hostages complete extra randomly so. you could have lots of say 1:04 pace runs but NONE complete; then as you play you get better at the stage and your pace lowers on average to 1:02 before a run just magically (aka randomly) completes. Thus you skipped strait from 1:05 to 1:02 because of the RNG factor. On that Level Perfect Ace Ryan Isran went from 1:01 to 0:59 UWR; skipping 1:00. And then later that month LP went from 1:00 (previous UWR) and skipped 0:59 and got the new UWR of 0:58 on a luck baised stage like Frigate SA (or 00A) your PB could go several seconds lower with great RNG on a fast paced run.

@ootdega

6 жыл бұрын

This is just what he uploaded. Goose said allegedly he had been making attempts for a month.

@danieledward132

6 жыл бұрын

He might not have uploaded any other times. It used to be that you didnt upload a time till you were either done running or got a time you were happy with

@mrgfdge

6 жыл бұрын

he wouldn't be happy with an untied record? i find this very hard to believe.

It'd be really cool to see you collaborate with Summoning Salt someday. Perhaps a history on the world records of 007 or Perfect Dark?

@MrAllallalla

6 жыл бұрын

oh no i remember what happened the last time someone asked him that question kzread.info/dash/bejne/c21mtMaupsuee7Q.html

@WilfredCthulu

6 жыл бұрын

Sebastian G. I'm sure it could work if you just talk about one type of run and go over the most major runs of that (ex: just do agent any %, talk about the most revolutionary records).

Wow, I was a bit skeptical when you mentioned "I'll let you decide if it's real or not" but the explanation is clear enough that I still felt very satisfied with the ending. Great video.

Thank you goose. Keep these videos coming.

People win lotteries with less likely odds. I call the record as "not proven false". IMHO record stands.

You've never seen channels get removed due to copyright strikes???

@TheLastApostle

5 жыл бұрын

Not for gameplay he means. Speedrunners never get copyright strikes for just uploading runs. This guy got striked due to using copyrighted j pop song apparently

@crunch9876

5 жыл бұрын

Matt Petty back then they didn’t care about music. Now they do care and remove channels

Would it not be possible to stabilize the video based on the weapon mode on the bottom right?

Thinkimg outloud: That shakey vid without sound would make it easier to splice. Is it possible to use tool assist on this game? Then the number of runs could be automated untill the situation is encountered.Is it possible to disable sound and or color from the game. If so, would that have a performance effect. Is it possible to change memory settings? Approaching this from a how would one cheat.

The RNG used on the byte check is probably not very uniform. I recommend finding out what it is and finding its probability distribution, then recalculating your decloak probabilities.

@DeathBringer769

6 жыл бұрын

Most games and software in general use pseudo-random algorithms, not anything truly random: www.random.org

@sryan2640

6 жыл бұрын

Deathbrewer Yeah, that's what I said.

@TheMiracleMatter

6 жыл бұрын

This op needs more exposure !

But first, let's talk about parallel universes

Can you perform the negative binomial distribution on the last two enemy spawns? Or is an early second, late third different from a late second early third?

@OmnipotentEntity

6 жыл бұрын

This approach would give 1/5077 or so.

I love how you explain the engine's quirks. Perfect Dark is still one of my fav FPS ever with Half-Life

Hope you eventually do PD Speedlore :)

@theSato

6 жыл бұрын

Considering he doesn't have nearly as much personal involvement/experience in the history of the PD community, any series he did like that will just not live up to the 007 ones..

@jeffreycanfield1939

6 жыл бұрын

Sato Yeah he mentioned that before, but he also mentioned that he might do a collaboration with someone who has more knowledge than him about PD, which would be cool to see

@TheSynStalker

6 жыл бұрын

Sato - You might be right, but that's no reason to not do them. I enjoy all the vids he's done because he's simply good at making them. It isn't just the content and expertise that makes it good. I'm always interested in seeing him tackle a topic as long as he is actually interested in it. If he doesn't want to do a PD series then I don't think he should, but otherwise I'm here for it.

@aforgottenevent504

6 жыл бұрын

He said on the forums that he's planning to do Defection PA and have Karl co-host

@jeffreycanfield1939

6 жыл бұрын

AForgottenEvent Sounds awesome :D

Sounds like it's time for Karl to go for this record

Can the byte check be manipulated with some memory manipulation software or devices? What about the RNG?

Dude....I haven't played Perfect Dark in YEARS and I don't have a head for maths at all, but this video was awesome. Extremely well narrated and very entertaining

Drink when you hear "Skedar".

whenever someone says Goose doesn't have 200IQ, show them this video

@dddmemaybe

5 жыл бұрын

Ok if you click read more you are signing a contract(a meme contract) where everytime you have to scroll down to this comment everytime you load this video, ok? Goose doesn't have 200IQ.

@handsomebrick

5 жыл бұрын

@@dddmemaybe "Goose doesn't have 200 IQ... he has 2000 IQ"

I've heard it's possible to recreate the sound of a conversation by looking at the small fluctuations of air in a no-audio high-definition video recording of a bag of chips that was in the room at the time. Are we sure it's not possible to get some software that will look at small fluctuations in the video and decode the timer in the bottom left?

Has there been an analysis of the pRNG the game uses? In reading up about the PD tas it sounds like the script in question is available somewhere. I'd be curious if its handling these extremely unlikely occurrences with the expected odds.

I've studied quite a bit of combinatorics at uni, and when you showed the first probability, I immediately thought "no that's not right, you should consider the three byte checks in the entire time span" and then you went and did that. You never disappoint, Goose.

Despite the terrible video I think it is a legit run. No matter how unlikely the lucky ending is, all it tells us is that it IS possible.

I do a lot of stats in college for my major. Your statistics are on point. Your presentation of those stats is better than most professors I've seen. Great job dude.

@DeathBringer769

6 жыл бұрын

Though it's important to note that most games and software in general use pseudo-random algorithms for convenience, not anything truly random: www.random.org/

where did you get the 256 byte figure? im figuring its meant to be bits so the game is checking 1 byte in total looking for a particular bit or set of bits to be turned on. i dont speedrun at all jsut find your videos interesting. is it possible to overclock an N64 in order to check those bits faster therefore saving time.

Simply put there is not enough evidence to say whether is real or fake. So it should not be considered a legitimate world record, until new evidence comes out. Other than that fantastic Analysis, can only imagine all the work to make this. Truly remarkable and inspiring. Keep it up.

@nickmisner65

6 жыл бұрын

Lucio Castro I understand where your coming from, the burden of proof lays on the accuser. If you don't have proof if cheating, there's really no reason to imply that it's there.

@fluidxd5476

6 жыл бұрын

Nick Misner the burden of proof is on the one making the claim lol

@TheSquareOnes

6 жыл бұрын

Wouldn't that mean the opposite? It's possible that it's real and there isn't enough evidence to show that it isn't, so we should give them the benefit of the doubt and count it. Maybe put an asterisk with a note pointing out the issues to make people feel better. The quality is obviously garbage but if other runs of similarly bad quality are accepted then this shouldn't be an exception just because of how lucky it is. Now I only follow Elite running through this channel so it's possible those runs have been purged and if so this should go too for that reason alone, but my understanding based on every single Rutzou run ever shown here is that abysmal quality is still counted. Of course, it would be totally reasonable to just stop counting all runs of quality so low they cannot be properly analyzed and if things like this are an issue in the community then that might be the best move forward. They could even take a half measure and maintain two sets of records, one including all runs and one of only the runs that can be verified. That would be more work but would allow us to track both "the confirmed best times" and "the possible best times, if you believe in miracles." But in any case it seems like a change in the community as a whole would need to take place before any action is taken on this particular run since it's not actually impossible (which is the way most other faked runs are discovered, not just "this is unlikely" but "this literally cannot happen in the code") and presumably meets the current low bar for quality standards.

@luciocastro1418

6 жыл бұрын

Cyan Light Yeah you are totally right. The argument goes both ways. I just personally think runs with a quality so low that its impossible to determine if its real, due to all fhe new discoveries of fake runs, should not be accepted anymore.

@TheSquareOnes

6 жыл бұрын

I can definitely agree to that, purging all of the ridiculously poor quality runs would solve a lot of these issues.

For some reason I believe its real

What is the ending thing like ending 19 whqat is that??

finally making some PD videos, great Goose. Hope to see more, cheers from Argentina

M Y F R I E N D S

there's no way to know. obviously, assuming something is fake because of how good the RNG is is ridiculous, shiny pokemon are 1/8000, so if we assume that anything near 1/10k is fake, then shiny pokemon would be 'impossible.' assuming it's fake because of the lack of video quality is another overreach. does a high-quality run ACTUALLY have a lower chance to be faked? or is it just that in a world without strict proof standards, it becomes easier to disguise cheating? there's no way to know for sure, just like any other record. ace and karl could be conning us, we have no way to know for certain. even if you were to watch karl in person, there's still the possibility that he's some nefarious mastermind capable of faking live performance.

@RichterVonFuchs

6 жыл бұрын

I don't think the pokemon is a fair comparison because at the rate that you see pokemon it is statistically more likely. Especially amongst people who shiny hunt. Remember (at the base 8192 chance) the odds of you seeing at least 1 shiny pokemon after 5,678 encounters is exactly 50% and you're seeing pokemon constantly. Where as using RWG's own words there have only been roughly 200 runs that have been on world-record pace. Even assuming that he amounts to 25% of them that is still .4%, less than half a percent. All that said it's technically possible in the same way that you could get a shiny pokemon as your starter on your first ever pokemon so there's not enough proof to disprove it. While it DOES break the uploading guidelines now it didn't back then and I don't like the idea of invalidating a run with rules created after the fact so I don't think it should be removed too.

Is it possible that the Japanese NTSC version has a higher probability of a 19 ending? Are the checked bytes different from the English version?

Is it just me or is the 0 in 2:06 not matching the jitter of the rest of the screen? At 20:38 in the video.