The LFP 4680 Battery Cell // + LFP with Tesla Silicon

Ғылым және технология

Can Tesla produce LFP in a 4680 battery cell? Yes, all the technologies unveiled at Battery Day are compatible with LFP. However, "Will they?" is a more nuanced and interesting question.
This video will cover the considerations involved in using a 4680 form factor, technology pathways for energy density improvements, and why I think LFP will become the dominant lithium chemistry.
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Timeline
00:00 Notes on the Q4 2021 Earnings Call
03:54 Introduction
04:56 Is a 4680 with LFP Viable?
10:02 Tesla's hints and my view
12:24 What I'm wrong?
12:59 The potential of LFP in the future
22:11 Is form factor an academic point?
22:57 Any barriers to Tesla LFP?
23:22 Are there an barriers to LFP us for other OEMs?
25:17 Summary: Roadmap and Cost Savings
#BattChat #BatteryTwitter
Intro Music by Dyalla: Homer Said

Пікірлер: 462

  • @thelimitingfactor
    @thelimitingfactor2 жыл бұрын

    Notes: 1) The 78% figure for the packing density was conservative. By staggered the cells, the packing density can be increased to ~90%. However, CATL/BYD are in reality closer to 400 Wh/l max than 450 Wh/l max, so I was aggressive there. That is, the estimate I provided would still be a good template. The math itself could have been dialled in better, but the results (250 miles), is still a good metric (in my view). 2) Although my assumption is that Drew was implying that the structural battery meant the 4680 structural battery, it could also mean a prismatic based structural battery. It's also worth keeping in mind that Tesla frequenly changes direction with their development plans and their thinking may have developed since Battery Day.

  • @motofunk1

    @motofunk1

    2 жыл бұрын

    Jordan, curious on your take. After battery day I made some estimates based on the presentation. I came up with the following. I modeled range based on a Model 3. 4680 Per Cell LFP - 80Wh Nickel Mag - 110Wh High Nickel - 120Wh 4680 Structural Pack - 960 Cells LFP - 77kW, 329 Miles, $2900 Cost, $37/kW Nickel Mag - 105kW, 448 Miles, $4180 Cost, $39/kW High Nickel - 115kW, 492 Miles, $5200 Cost, $45/kW It will be interesting once we see production cells and vehicles. I hope that the biggest surprise is going to be in charge time. I think Tesla is sandbagging on this for 4680. I am guessing we will see at least a 50% reduction out of the gate, with up to 75% possible with tweaks over time.

  • @thelimitingfactor

    @thelimitingfactor

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@motofunk1 Nice! More aggressive than I would have been, but not out of line with the information we've received from Tesla and Sandy Munro. That is, it's a matter of interpretation, but I can't fault the stats above. I'm just thinking of all the challenges they'll face and the increasing prices we're seeing in raw materials.

  • @motofunk1

    @motofunk1

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@thelimitingfactor True, rising material costs will have an impact, but I don't really count that. I just look at my cost estimates as 2020 dollars, time adjusted for inflation will happen. Thanks for the feedback.

  • @johnnymonsters9717

    @johnnymonsters9717

    2 жыл бұрын

    I feel their structural pack are for all batteries moving forward. Elon said the best makers of products are toy manufacturers. He is trying to create less variations not more

  • @castortoutnu

    @castortoutnu

    2 жыл бұрын

    It's π/4

  • @bobhoward1241
    @bobhoward12412 жыл бұрын

    Why are you not the number 1 you tuber regarding Tesla? Your analysis is literally amazing and informative.

  • @rivengle

    @rivengle

    2 жыл бұрын

    Cause it ain’t clickbait, good or bad.

  • @roddlez

    @roddlez

    2 жыл бұрын

    and it requires a basic level of engineering and technical competency that goes over a lot of peoples' heads.

  • @tommckinney1489

    @tommckinney1489

    2 жыл бұрын

    Jordan's videos are technical in nature and most people don't bother with technical details. Other KZreadrs are more financial in nature which appeals to a larger audience. Personally, I'm interested in the technical details so kudos to Jordan. But I agree, his subscriber numbers should be in the multiple 100 thousands.

  • @rogerstarkey5390

    @rogerstarkey5390

    2 жыл бұрын

    @Bob Howard He is, for those who pay attention.

  • @greengold6705

    @greengold6705

    2 жыл бұрын

    This is a science learning channel not a marketing channel like most other Tesla channels.

  • @kstaxman2
    @kstaxman22 жыл бұрын

    As always your coverage of batteries can't be excelled. The depth and accuracy of your research is beyond anything else out there. Thank you!

  • @glenncornwall4331
    @glenncornwall43312 жыл бұрын

    I love how you present your material without any kind of hype.You present your material in methodical logical manner knowing the breakthroughs are not quite there at this time.

  • @alisonl6767
    @alisonl67672 жыл бұрын

    Another brilliantly detailed but completely understandable for a total pleb, like me. 😁 ....and the fact that, "the illustrious James Douma" supports your channel, is THE unparalleled nod. Love it ! Congratulations!

  • @thelimitingfactor

    @thelimitingfactor

    2 жыл бұрын

    🤜🤛🤠

  • @SergTTL
    @SergTTL2 жыл бұрын

    I gotta say thank you to the author for such a high quality content and thank you for everyone supporting such a content. You guys are awesome!

  • @douglaswatt1582
    @douglaswatt15822 жыл бұрын

    Another exceptionally thoughtful and erudite analysis by the Limiting Factor

  • @Qattea
    @Qattea2 жыл бұрын

    I just recently found this channel…it’s pure gold

  • @KyungseoParkk
    @KyungseoParkk2 жыл бұрын

    my god, your analysis deserve far more audiences. Thank you for your analysis and insight! It's shocking how evidence based your videos are.

  • @edwardmorpeth5988
    @edwardmorpeth59882 жыл бұрын

    EXCELLENT PRESENTATION with logical structured thinking. Other communicators are guessing, with very little thought, are often calling others idiots. My viewing is limited to those with original well scripted ideas & meaningful visual backing. YOU ARE TOP OF THE LIST..

  • @thelimitingfactor

    @thelimitingfactor

    2 жыл бұрын

    Always great to hear from you Edward 🙌

  • @gridcoregilry666
    @gridcoregilry6662 жыл бұрын

    Amazing explanations even for someone like me, who has no educational background in any of these battery topics. It really helps to affirm the investment case of TSLA. Thank you!

  • @Bryan46162
    @Bryan461622 жыл бұрын

    Thanks Jordan, for another well researched and reasoned video! It's becoming increasingly difficult to find, reasoned, fact based discussion about any of this stuff out there as people seem to be hardening into uninformed, unmovable positions.

  • @alstud1
    @alstud12 жыл бұрын

    Your channel is fantastic. Full of real info/facts so well explained that instead of being confused after watching, I feel informed. Thank you sir!

  • @denismilic1878
    @denismilic18782 жыл бұрын

    I finally found a channel to learn from it about batteries. Kudos.

  • @joeabad5908
    @joeabad59082 жыл бұрын

    Did not understand much but enjoyed the whole 30:15min presentation.. your voice is hypnotic...

  • @dr-k1667
    @dr-k16672 жыл бұрын

    Jordon you are a credit to the Tesla Community and Investors. I always enjoy your work and now feel that the lead Tesla has only continues to grow. If I have understood you well, Tesla has OPTIONS and that means FLEXIBILITY which also means they have even more control over their DESTINY that leads to their DOMINANCE so that my outlook for the company as a whole only cements, but it also shows how precarious legacy automakers are in deciding which form factor, chemistry and ability to scale in order to even be in this game. There is so much here, I may just watch it again! Thank you so much for all that you do and for your Patreon supporters that allow you to do such deep dives.

  • @thelimitingfactor

    @thelimitingfactor

    2 жыл бұрын

    Oh hey thanks man! I appreciate the kind words. Amen - Tesla has options. That's as important as anything else.

  • @neillaldegheri9259
    @neillaldegheri92592 жыл бұрын

    Great content, superb delivery! Thanks for spreading science and hope

  • @jamesowens7176
    @jamesowens71762 жыл бұрын

    Another fine video with excellent explanations and well-sourced data. I love your channel!

  • @Clark-Mills
    @Clark-Mills2 жыл бұрын

    You can't easily make a structural battery with a prismatic cell; prismatic cells need cages to contain their (limited for LFP) swelling and the long format isn't conducive to torsional loading. A honeycomb structure with a depth relative to "diameter" (which may be why Tesla chose the 4680 ratio/format) allows for a true structural pack. How they physically lock the cells together, regardless of format, will be interesting though.

  • @awebuser5914

    @awebuser5914

    2 жыл бұрын

    The trick is that the current incarnation of the Model Y "structural" pack, really isn't used for significant structure! The Berlin (and Austin) Model Y's are still a complete unibody, with essentially just the floorpan missing! The "structural" body in white is a fully-stressed form, with all the lateral and torsional stability of the old design. The structural pack adds the lateral cross-bracing for side-impact protection, but beyond that, it's really just a floorpan that is bolted into place versus welded/glued. Munro and others will inevitably look it over, but 4680s in the "structural" pack will probably NOT be part of the functional structural rigidity of the pack, and honestly, you could argue that a Model 3/Y pack is "structural" since the cell blocks are extremely rigid and directly fastened to the pack casing. Basically, the Tesla structural pack is a production optimization (seats, etc installed from below), not a significant effort to actually make the pack part of the vehicle's stressed structure. I always find in comical when Tesla fanbois state that Tesla are based on a "skateboard" platform when that is categorically incorrect. ALL current Teslas are unibody vehicles with separate drive units installed independently from below along with a battery pack hung underneath, which has ZERO to do with the actual skateboard concept. A fully-developed EV skateboard will be a structurally-complete system that is the drive units and battery as a complete unit, onto which varying body styes could be mounted.

  • @Clark-Mills

    @Clark-Mills

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@awebuser5914 The Y has multiple modules which are then installed/wired into the pack. The structural pack is effectively a big module removing the concentric casing and with the cell honeycomb giving the stiffness. Your common timber bedroom door contains a weak honeycomb sandwiched between two planes and the doors are very rigid.

  • @patreekotime4578

    @patreekotime4578

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@awebuser5914 4680 only really works as a structural pack. Tesla has to maintain a standardized pack height across their manufacturing. So a pack that contains 2170s or prismatic cells into a series of steel housings with strong lateral bracing is simply not also going to accomodate 4680s with the same requirements. The larger the diameter of the cell, the more cells are lost every time you have a lateral break. If you try to package large diameter cells into discreet modules you loose any packaging advantage those cells have over small cells. Period.

  • @awebuser5914

    @awebuser5914

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@patreekotime4578 Ummm, I'm not sure what your point is, but the bottom line is that the 4680's are really a stop-gap concept and so-called "structural" unibody Model Y's (the ones with no floor) being built in Berlin and Austin WILL have alternate packs available in a year or so using exactly the same body, so the concept of the 4680 being critical to a structural pack is obviously incorrect. It's trivial to create a so-called "structural" pack with cells smaller than a 4680, it may be less mass-efficient, but that's essentially irrelevant.

  • @patreekotime4578

    @patreekotime4578

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@awebuser5914 You seem to be conflating two completely different things. Tesla has removed a redundant layer of steel that was an artifact of their original intention for swappable battery packs. But that layer of steel was not structural... thus why it could just be removed. That design revision had nothing to do with structural battery packs. Meanwhile when Tesla says "structural" battery packs, they mean several things... A: that the cells will be self supporting so that they do not require boxes within boxes of module packaging, B: that they will not require heavy lateral cross-bracing through the pack, and C: that the honeycomb structure will increase rigidity and reduce twisting of the entire vehicle which may result eventually in changes to the vehicle designs to reduce structure elsewhere in the vehicle. Obviously in the first iterations, the early 4680 vehicles will have redundant structural features which they will require to remain pack agnostic... but in time they should be able to create products that can leverage the structural pack to reduce materials and weight. Just all the more reason why they would want to produce LFP 4680s in house and also why we see their suppliers working to make their own 4680 type cells.

  • @navderek
    @navderek2 жыл бұрын

    Awesome videos. Happy to support your channel!👍

  • @inlinesix1187
    @inlinesix11872 жыл бұрын

    Love the vids man! Always look forward to them! Keep it up

  • @Curacars
    @Curacars2 жыл бұрын

    Great video again, probably have to watch it a few more times to completely get it

  • @rioriggs3568
    @rioriggs3568 Жыл бұрын

    Amazing video once again Jordan!

  • @imaro2358
    @imaro23582 жыл бұрын

    Thanks Jordan! This video exactly answers my questions about 4680’s. Can’t wait for your video on sodium.

  • @richardalexander5758
    @richardalexander57582 жыл бұрын

    A large portion of what I know about batteries is from watching your videos. Thanks very much!

  • @michaelvandermeer5852
    @michaelvandermeer58522 жыл бұрын

    One of your best Jordan!

  • @ellipsisfan
    @ellipsisfan2 жыл бұрын

    Bravo! This KZread video presciently anticipated Tesla's generally unexpected use of LFP chemistry in the Giga Austin Model Y's structural 4680 Battery Cells.

  • @KenLord
    @KenLord2 жыл бұрын

    I came here to say "but they said ...", but you beat me to it and covered it :) Another great video.

  • @weljenks
    @weljenks2 жыл бұрын

    Can’t wait for your sodium ion series since it can match present day LFP density and is theoretically far more abundant and inexpensive!

  • @PEOdysseus
    @PEOdysseus2 жыл бұрын

    thank you! you have a great "radio" voice. easy to listen too.

  • @prawnmikus
    @prawnmikus2 жыл бұрын

    Absolutely amazing content!! Just think of how the grid will morph by the mid '30s if battery energy storage can come in at $25/kWh. It will change everything.

  • @thelimitingfactor

    @thelimitingfactor

    2 жыл бұрын

    Yeah man!

  • @vico566
    @vico5662 жыл бұрын

    I always look forward to your analysis.

  • @Bunny-pr8gw
    @Bunny-pr8gw2 жыл бұрын

    Gonna sub to your Patreon soon as I get home from work. I don’t know anything about batteries but I love Tesla and I found this breakdown of their new battery fascinating.

  • @aussie2uGA
    @aussie2uGA2 жыл бұрын

    If I understand it correctly, from a marketing perspective, LFP could then be positioned as a standard energy source providing great range but lacking ultimate performance. The nickel could be positioned as an up sell for its lighter weight and higher performance?

  • @thelimitingfactor

    @thelimitingfactor

    2 жыл бұрын

    It could, but I'd think it would be better to use Nickel for the upsell. (as always, I don't claim to have a monopoly on the truth) You have the right idea: You can play around with form factor and chemistry to suit a particular need. There is no 'One Best' solution and it's about product-market fit.

  • @mikehill1613
    @mikehill16132 жыл бұрын

    Amazing analysis. Dang, you’re so brilliant.

  • @vaclavmatousek3007
    @vaclavmatousek30072 жыл бұрын

    That is so well researched!

  • @belspace
    @belspace2 жыл бұрын

    Great video as usual !

  • @nat3llite
    @nat3llite2 жыл бұрын

    You are so good at this. Thank you.

  • @edwardmorpeth5988
    @edwardmorpeth59882 жыл бұрын

    (1) Tesla 4680 manufacturing plants are certainly designed to handle LFP electrodes & electrolytes. (2) Tesla vehicle & storage production is effectively limited by cell availability. (3) Tesla has stated it will purchase as many cells as outside manufactures can provide . (4) It becomes a question of how fast Tesla can increase its in-house manufacturing.

  • @wirtschaftsrationalist412
    @wirtschaftsrationalist4122 жыл бұрын

    As always I understand like 15% of your videos. But i am very greatful for them!

  • @beugin150
    @beugin1502 жыл бұрын

    Thanks a lot Again Jordan, your video are so clear and valuable Thanks to reply to many of my questions

  • @johnvlg01
    @johnvlg012 жыл бұрын

    great video, dope intro song, left a like (thanks for putting intro song in description👌)

  • @thelimitingfactor

    @thelimitingfactor

    2 жыл бұрын

    Hey! You're the first person who's noticed out of millions, lol. Glad it was useful.

  • @fitzcarraldo2004
    @fitzcarraldo20042 жыл бұрын

    Thank you for your great analysis. In particular when you showed how the energy consumption efficiency of Tesla gives them a competitive advantage to use the LFP chemistry. It is now so obvious - because of the way how you explained it.

  • @KingLutherQ
    @KingLutherQ Жыл бұрын

    Great video! It's likely that Tesla is already developing LFP energy density and chemistry. And as soon as they hit a energy density that is satisfactory, they will apply it to the 4680.

  • @Klemeq
    @Klemeq2 жыл бұрын

    Well of COURSE different batteries have positives and negatives. That's how batteries work! /s

  • @kennyg1358

    @kennyg1358

    2 жыл бұрын

    Punny

  • @roddlez

    @roddlez

    2 жыл бұрын

    You're officially discharged from this conversation.

  • @rogerstarkey5390

    @rogerstarkey5390

    2 жыл бұрын

    I was SO close to commenting, but it was too bad even for me.

  • @FrunkensteinVonZipperneck

    @FrunkensteinVonZipperneck

    Жыл бұрын

    @@rogerstarkey5390 Roger, we appreciate your neutrality…

  • @DSC800
    @DSC8002 жыл бұрын

    Thinking out loud: Why not use both chemisties in the same car? If LFP has a long cycle life but less density, have a 40kwh pack that is used first, then draw on a 40kwh NCA battery. Even better, have the LFP pack provide power for cruising and then draw on the NCA pack for hills, accelerating, etc. Effecively reduce the cycle time on the NCA by half and the LFP is cycled twice as much.

  • @Blade70
    @Blade702 жыл бұрын

    Catl really revolutionizing LFP battery tech. I hope more variety and innovation for all companies.

  • @vamsikrishna3855
    @vamsikrishna38552 жыл бұрын

    Love Your videos.

  • @ericborman631
    @ericborman6312 жыл бұрын

    This was a great video, thanks a lot

  • @timypp2894
    @timypp28942 жыл бұрын

    Thank you for another fab fact video.

  • @michaelplotkin7383
    @michaelplotkin73832 жыл бұрын

    Thanks again for a great video.

  • @Rob_Womack
    @Rob_Womack2 жыл бұрын

    Great video! Thank you!

  • @greengold6705
    @greengold67052 жыл бұрын

    Great video Jordan also really liked your interview with Dave Lee investing.

  • @thelimitingfactor

    @thelimitingfactor

    2 жыл бұрын

    Hey thanks man!

  • @trent_carter
    @trent_carter2 жыл бұрын

    I see two most probable paths for LFP in Tesla vehicles: 1. Tesla makes 4680 LFP in house 2. Tesla buys Prismatic LFPs from Chinese suppliers I don’t see the advantage of Tesla spending the r&d and more so the distraction of engineering resources when they can buy off the shelf with enough supply at reasonable prices. I agree both would end up in structural packs.

  • @vaclavmatousek3007
    @vaclavmatousek3007 Жыл бұрын

    This shit will make me invincible when arguing with petrolheads. Thanks a lot for the super high quality video, Jordan!

  • @FrunkensteinVonZipperneck

    @FrunkensteinVonZipperneck

    Жыл бұрын

    Nah. There’s no way to spark logical thinking in neuroactively-challenged Petrolheads.

  • @OhmicContact
    @OhmicContact2 жыл бұрын

    Yes my favorite channel!!!!!!!

  • @astranc
    @astranc2 жыл бұрын

    Great video as always. Perhaps take look at C4V's batteries. Prismatic, Cobalt free LFP, structural packs apparently tab less and using dry battery electrodes. Sounds very familiar

  • @seant1325
    @seant13252 жыл бұрын

    Thanks Jordan for another great video. This would be assuming that the maxwell dry battery electrode technology is compatible with the LFP chemistry...

  • @charleshaggard4341
    @charleshaggard43412 жыл бұрын

    Enjoy your videos....thanks

  • @castortoutnu
    @castortoutnu2 жыл бұрын

    Remember that a power train efficiency can only improve so much. The better it is, the harder it is to improve and the less it will have an impact on range.

  • @stevem3439
    @stevem34392 жыл бұрын

    👌👌 LFP 4680 with genius silicon doping for energy density is my guess as the ruling form factor from what you say Jordan. Luving it, thnx!

  • @kbmblizz1940
    @kbmblizz19402 жыл бұрын

    👏 Nice work.

  • @tommckinney1489
    @tommckinney14892 жыл бұрын

    i think the logical path would be for Tesla to offer LFP in structural 4680 packs. I think the reason they offer LFP in prismatic form now is because they aren't (yet) using structural battery packs (giga cast frames). Once they roll out giga cast frames, they'll use 4680 in all of them and forgo prismatic. So, for the model 3/Y, my guess is they will eventually offer the RWD version (previously SR+) with 4680 LFP and a range of around 325. The LR version will use NCA and have a range of around 400. Just my 2 cents worth.

  • @randolphtorres4172
    @randolphtorres41722 жыл бұрын

    THANKS4GIVING

  • @MrFoxRobert
    @MrFoxRobert2 жыл бұрын

    Thank you!

  • @michaelcoghlan9124
    @michaelcoghlan9124 Жыл бұрын

    Thank you. M

  • @terrancel1786
    @terrancel1786 Жыл бұрын

    Hey, Jordan you remind me of a random guy walking through the background in ten-forward on STNG (lol) cool soundtrack intro,

  • @wmartonejr
    @wmartonejr2 жыл бұрын

    Jordan Sir - can you share in your show notes your recording set up please? Love the sound and image quality.

  • @thezs5
    @thezs52 жыл бұрын

    Jordan, great job as always! One question: have you done any video on battery recycling? The alternative techniques, pros and cons, the players, etc? Would love to hear your take on it. I know getting info on the approach taken by private companies such as Redwood Materials probably is hard, but ABML, Li-Cyle and few others are public and probably share some details. Thanks!

  • @elektrotehnik94

    @elektrotehnik94

    2 жыл бұрын

    I know Fully Charged channel has done some quite OK work on this

  • @MDMTheGladiator
    @MDMTheGladiator2 жыл бұрын

    You Have An Awesome Narrative Voice!

  • @thelimitingfactor

    @thelimitingfactor

    2 жыл бұрын

    🤠🤜🤛

  • @amimartian
    @amimartian2 жыл бұрын

    All hail to the "Battery day"!

  • @alihyari7358
    @alihyari73582 жыл бұрын

    Hi Jordan, interesting video as always. I belive that the tabless design might enable thicker LFP electrodes and higher energy densities, which should improve energy/volume density of a proposed 4680 lfp battery. Couple that with reduced cost from DBE, and it seems that this route might become the norm for Tesla for most applications

  • @phila.6521
    @phila.65212 жыл бұрын

    I think you would enjoy listening to Dr. Shailesh Upreti. Very good video with Ev reporter.

  • @ghostindamachine
    @ghostindamachine2 жыл бұрын

    superb!

  • @hyric8927
    @hyric89272 жыл бұрын

    I'd love to see a deep dive video on Na-ion batteries!

  • @archigoel
    @archigoel2 жыл бұрын

    In the recent call, Tesla clearly said that LFP will NOT come in 4680 form factor, due to fundamental issues of the cell chemistry. Also, all stationary storage will go LFP.

  • @thelimitingfactor

    @thelimitingfactor

    2 жыл бұрын

    You didn't watch the video from what I can tell. I said stationary storage would go LFP.

  • @danielfreeman4765

    @danielfreeman4765

    2 жыл бұрын

    @archie, yes i recall vividly Elon stating this.

  • @patreekotime4578
    @patreekotime45782 жыл бұрын

    Per the point you made at around 6:30 about changing packing density of cylindrical cells, the recent Munro video about the Plaid battery shows that Tesla is now fitting 100kwh AND the charging electronics suite into the same package space as the old 85kwh pack. They have dramatically reduced the number of modules and bracing and all of this points them in the direction that we expect to see with 4680 structural packs. Which is interesting because it means that the lessons they have learned from 4680 designs have already bled over into 2170 designs. Which I think was a somewhat unexpected result. I had figured that the only way they could possibly fit 100kwh into the Plaid would be to switch to 4680s, but clearly there was a ton of room for improvements on the 2170 packs!

  • @FrunkensteinVonZipperneck

    @FrunkensteinVonZipperneck

    Жыл бұрын

    Very interesting. Thanks

  • @phila.6521
    @phila.65212 жыл бұрын

    I'm interested in the use of lithium phosphate, from low grade spodumene, as a substitute for lithium carbonate in LFP batteries. Seems to remove a step, as well as make use of lower grade resources.

  • @rogerstarkey5390
    @rogerstarkey53902 жыл бұрын

    Thanks again Jordan! As usual, you've taken my somewhat jumbled thought process, distilled it, dotted most of the i's, crossed most of the t's and I think largely confirmed my thoughts. Going for the second listen but first.... ..... Did you consider the "system efficiency" improvement from weight reduction of the whole vehicle using the structural pack. That may put the *vehicle* into the energy to weight band of the current Nickel pack based cars? ........ Would production rate /physical factory volume be a consideration? If the Wh per hour leaving a given size of factory is much lower for prismatic, that hands the advantage back to 4680?

  • @thelimitingfactor

    @thelimitingfactor

    2 жыл бұрын

    1) Nope - I was conservative. 2) Yup - But that's a 'should' be true rather than something I can demonstrate or have data on. 🤠

  • @rogerstarkey5390

    @rogerstarkey5390

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@thelimitingfactor 1) That's what I thought. 2) I agree, seems likely, but time will tell. 👍

  • @rogerstarkey5390

    @rogerstarkey5390

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@thelimitingfactor P.S.... You're REALLY back in the US, aren't you 😁😁 🤠 👍

  • @PyroManiacbwl
    @PyroManiacbwl2 жыл бұрын

    love your videos. Based on what Drew said I am still convinced that LFP will stay as prismatic, as they can be form dense and structural if engineered properly and dont require as much cooling. BUT, its possible that 4680 is easier to produce and if so would be could be a driving factor toward a preference in 4680.

  • @channguyen3349

    @channguyen3349

    2 жыл бұрын

    I think if Tesla succeed to mine lithium themselves in Nevada, they will put it in their own 4680 as LFP and perhaps with some silicon doping as Jordan said or replacing Iron with Manganese as Elon has twitted.

  • @sparks869

    @sparks869

    2 жыл бұрын

    I agree. CATL and BYD seem to be scaling prismatic LFP so Tesla has a plentiful supply. That can leave Tesla to focus 4680 for higher performance applications. Having a diverse battery supply chain only benefits Tesla and allows their suppliers to keep advancing LFP. Just because they can technically do 4680 LFP, doesn't mean they have to.

  • @elektrotehnik94

    @elektrotehnik94

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@sparks869 Up-and-coming battery shortage coming this decade (consequently, suppliers increasing prices) speaks towards Tesla needing to bring LFP largely in-house, if they want to compete cost-effectively for the cheaper market segment that requires cheap LFP batteries.

  • @markumbers5362
    @markumbers53622 жыл бұрын

    Excellent. Isn't there a recharging advantage with the 4680 design? Be interested if there is any difference in recharging speed between prismatic and 4680s.

  • @ModernDayGeeks
    @ModernDayGeeks2 жыл бұрын

    I'm curious as to what Elon and Tesla has in store in being able to produce their own batteries now... Awesome stuff, very insightful!

  • @rubenayla
    @rubenayla2 жыл бұрын

    Great video! Do you know if there's any difference in the strength to vibration between cylindrical and prismatic cells?

  • @thelimitingfactor

    @thelimitingfactor

    2 жыл бұрын

    An excellent question that I don't know the answer to. It's certainly a concern.

  • @AbeDillon
    @AbeDillon2 жыл бұрын

    One benefit of cylindrical structural batteries over prismatic structural batteries is: cylindrical cells offer structural support from all directions. They act almost exactly like a honeycomb structure. Prismatic cells like the BYD blade are much weaker to impacts perpendicular to the largest face on the cell (what most people would call the "side" of the cell).

  • @muzz817
    @muzz8172 жыл бұрын

    Hi Jordan, your videos are awesome, great work, thankyou. If Tesla were to make LFP, using the 4680 format might be possible but I can't see it stacking up against a prismatic cell design. As you pointed out LPF materials are so cheap compared with NMC that recycling LFP is not really feasible. And if LFP is only 20% cheaper than NMC per kW/h due to the cheaper materials then more than 70% of the price related to cell manufacturing. From the battery investor day we know that DBE will substantially lower production costs. Separately the 4680 cell format also lowers production costs compared with the 18650 cell format and larger cells means fewer cells per vehicle. Prismatic cells are already quite large compared with the 4680 cell format, I don't think Tesla would want to put more cells in their vehicles. It's the tab-less electrode design that unlocked the large cell format with lower internal resistance and better heat dissipation. A tab-less prismatic cell design would allow for much larger cells to be made at a lower price per kWh. These benefits combined with the benefits of the DBE manufacturing process could see prismatic cells perform almost as well at the current 18650 cells. It is worthwhile for Tesla to invest in a new form factor for LFP? Yes, If nickel battery’s are projected to only represent 25% of the battery market in the next few years and it was worth while moving to the 4680 cell format, then surely they would see be benefit of optimizing the prismatic cell format for LFP which is projected to be 75% of the market.

  • @douggolde7582
    @douggolde75822 жыл бұрын

    If Tesla makes 4680 LFP they could offer two versions with the same battery structure.

  • @MarkXHolland
    @MarkXHolland2 жыл бұрын

    'Straight from fish to lizard...' Such is Telsa's evolution. And no frogs!

  • @justanotherbozo
    @justanotherbozo2 жыл бұрын

    Just wondering about using/packing multiple form factor cylindrical cells to increase packing efficiency. Is that a reasonable approach to increasing volumetric density?

  • @78katz
    @78katz2 жыл бұрын

    Any idea what form factor the high energy density Gotion Hi tech LFP cells are? I assume prismatic, but might they be similar to the BYD Blade format?

  • @bkinstler
    @bkinstler2 жыл бұрын

    As always, great work, and much appreciated for the strategic comparisons. Overall, I don’t think it’s practical for Tesla to produce prismatic LFP, given the additional R&D and production costs. That’s what the CATL and potential BYD deals are for - LFP coverage for the near term, especially in China. In the meantime, Tesla can focus on its own 4680 production lines, and eventually add in LFP chemistry over time, with or without silicon. Plus, As you note, it fits with their design philosophy.

  • @JulioCesar-bv7co

    @JulioCesar-bv7co

    2 жыл бұрын

    IMO Tesla bought this silicon battery start up in Colorado for one reason SI

  • @pavelviltres
    @pavelviltres2 жыл бұрын

    Excellent work. Question: where is Lucid in the 22:11 chart?

  • @thelimitingfactor

    @thelimitingfactor

    2 жыл бұрын

    Hey man! It's not my chart, if you look you'll notice a credit to Sawyer Merritt. Besides, neither Tesla nor Lucid are the gold standard for range. Lightyear One is.

  • @corpierro
    @corpierro2 жыл бұрын

    Nice we see the "face" behind the channel holder!

  • @WelldoneGuarantee
    @WelldoneGuarantee2 жыл бұрын

    Oh, I'm waiting for them. Did apply to production Model Y already?

  • @thelimitingfactor

    @thelimitingfactor

    2 жыл бұрын

    I don't understand that question. Not sure which them you are referring to and which region of Model Y production

  • @roddlez

    @roddlez

    2 жыл бұрын

    According to the investor's call, Austin-built Model Y's already are running around with 4680 structural packs. It's just a matter of time until these are being sold to customers. My guess is that they are working out how to sell these along side the older Freemont-build Model Y's, since they could have significant weight and/or battery performance improvements.

  • @rogerstarkey5390

    @rogerstarkey5390

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@roddlez Maybe a larger question is "What happens to the 2170 cells from Nevada if Texas starts with 4680 and Fremont pivots (temporarily?) to lower range LFP cars?" ....... Options. 1) Sell them. 2) Powerwall, until such time as and LFP alternative is available (If constrained, most LFP would go to commercial projects??) 3) Install a 4680 line in Nevada to serve the Semi, then as it ramps, staged replacement of the 2170 facilities.... ? Just thought of another one. 4) A "low range" 2170 vehicle, non structural, smaller 2170 pack?

  • @roddlez

    @roddlez

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@rogerstarkey5390 interesting, but it will be at least a year before Texas produces enough vehicles to meet CURRENT monthly demand. Also we have every reason to believe that demand will be even higher a year from now. Just not sure how they will handle the different Model Ys in the interim.

  • @milojan1379

    @milojan1379

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@rogerstarkey5390 I don't know what is a deal with Panasonic. It is possible that they have to meet some buyer's quota.

  • @DLWELD
    @DLWELD2 жыл бұрын

    In the comparisons of blade to wound cells I'd like to see what the actual "active square footage" is of the 4680 battery material - ie unwind a cylindrical cell ( to get a biggish rectangle) and compare with the active area of a blade battery. Plus be good to see and compare the length of electrical path to the poles (tabless makes for very short paths) - so, how does a blade compared on this???

  • @Reddylion
    @Reddylion2 жыл бұрын

    Nice

  • @joncasamento5978
    @joncasamento59782 жыл бұрын

    Great presentation. I understand that LFP can be charged to near 100% where as the NCA batteries can only be charged to 80% without shortening the battery life. I think this is huge as the advertised range is more closely achievable for the LFP vs 80% for the NCA. I'm not sure that is addressed in the comparisons. Being able to use the full capacity of the battery as well as higher life cycles should make the LFP a clear winner. Now about other chemistries..........

  • @robinsoncrusoeonmars8594
    @robinsoncrusoeonmars85942 жыл бұрын

    You are really among the best. The amazing thing about Tesla is that they put it out there for anybody to see. Same with SpaceX. Not much hidden. Elon is true to himself and us when he says he wants the world to change. No other company or human has done or is doing innovation this way. If only other companies would learn from this. A good series might be to look for any companies emulating his methodology. Would be interesting. That being said, who could do what Elon does?

  • @pritambissonauth2181
    @pritambissonauth21812 жыл бұрын

    A video on the Blade LFP battery from BYD, most welcomed.

  • @thelimitingfactor

    @thelimitingfactor

    2 жыл бұрын

    Hey man! I don't know if you're referring to the one I already made or requesting one. Regardless, thanks for the comment!

  • @pritambissonauth2181

    @pritambissonauth2181

    2 жыл бұрын

    @@thelimitingfactor You are right you already made one. Thanks. Any more updates on the Blade cells?

  • @spadkins
    @spadkins2 жыл бұрын

    If we suppose that different form factors are optimal for different battery chemistries, might not the diameter of the cell be the deciding variable? My hunch: Tesla's batteries will be all cylindrical (none prismatic) and 80mm high. This will make them all work in the same battery packs, and Tesla will be able to adapt its manufacturing techniques the easiest. The different chemistries will all have different optimal diameters though. What do you think? e.g. Nickel 4680, Manganese 5480, LFP 6680, Sodium Iron 7280. (I made those dimensions up for illustration purposes, as I don't have any insight into how to calculate the optimal form factor.)

  • @krisvandermeulen253
    @krisvandermeulen2532 жыл бұрын

    Have you had a look at the One battery that seems to be two types of chemistry used - in different modules- in one battery pack?

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