Will the stock market rise another 50% by 2030? Dr. Ed Yardeni believes there’s a substantial chance this could happen. We discuss why in this Global Macro Update interview.
Dr. Ed’s thesis cites increasing productivity, fueled by advances in technology. This aligns with my AI/productivity boom theme: AI and automation will supplement workers, who are in short supply, making companies much more productive.
Dr. Ed says, “Productivity is sort of fairy dust: It boosts real GDP, it keeps a lid on inflation, it allows wages to rise faster than prices, and it's great for profit margins.”
Dr. Ed is a former chief investment strategist at Prudential Equity Group and at Deutsche Bank's US Equity Group. Today, he runs Yardeni Research. His chief markets strategist, Eric Wallerstein (formerly of the New York Fed and The Wall Street Journal) also joined our discussion.
In the interview, you’ll hear forecasts on interest rates, inflation, and the housing market, along with guidance on which market sectors investors should focus on now.
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Time stamps:
00:00 - Introduction
01:02 - Dr. Ed’s roaring ‘20s thesis
04:01 - Stocks up 50% by 1930?
05:26 - Disinflation forecasts
07:10 - The new normal for interest rates
10:18 - The health of the US consumer
16:28 - Rolling recessions
19:57 - Market sectors to watch
26:22 - Shutting off global trade
29:35 - Yardeni QuickTakes