Such great explanations in your videos Kie, one of the best and most honest thought out trader channels on YT. I think the main point missed is overtrading and fomo. I base trades on the fact that most goals (75% I believe) are scored in the last 15 minutes of each half, so for me there is a focal point where I am looking to trade. I also look at all shots on goal, not just on target and like to see Dangerous attacks at 10% or more higher than the match minutes and all this has to add up 100% even after my match selections and checking if there is value in the odds V probability. Therefore somedays I wont place a bet at all and it's that discipline that makes me profitable. Keep up the great work!

Great video! I use this strategy sporadically and have seen some great wins (need to be consistent to profit over time!).... Have you ever thought about entering the strategy at 23/24 minutes, but splitting your stake by 4, thus placing 1/4 of your stake at say 4-5 minute intervals after your 23 minute entry point? ---- I feel this would significantly increase profitability percentages, what do you think?

Hey Kie. These videos are great. I have a question for you. I plan to do the form & bet on matches with over 1.5 goals but I plan to wait for the 1st 10mins & get a slightly higher price. Eg before kickoff its 1.35 & 10mins after kickoff its 1.50. My question is will this give me value odds or does it just refect the current chance of over 1.5 goals happening?

Hey man I just like the enthusiasm on your face.....il definitely download and try your view of this......

For what it's worth this is one of the best and most inspiring football trading videos I've seen on YT and I think I've probably watched most of them at this stage, fair play Kie!

Another way to take advantage of rising odds is to place 80 per cent of your stake at the starting price and then 20 per cent around the 23rd minute. That way you don't miss out on the early goal but you'll profit from a later one. I have a formula for first half goals based on the odds of the favourite and the over 0.5 goals chance for the entire game. I bet at low odds but have a very high hit rate.

@blaxtotheworld6839

Жыл бұрын

Can you share the formula?

@simonround2439

Жыл бұрын

@@blaxtotheworld6839 I'm not going to share the exact formula but look for clear home favourites

@srinaidu8649

Жыл бұрын

A

@MrDj-rl2ef

11 ай бұрын

@@simonround2439 I don’t see anything on it Anyone ?

Great video! I learned so much and loved the way you presented the information

Interesting break down. I still wonder, now exchanges are so liquid would the adjustment for 'good' and 'bad' matches not be made? So two attack minded teams would only hit 2.0 after half an hour, two defence first teams would hit 2.0 less than 15 mins in... Seems unlikely 1 person would have spotted something a large group of layers hadn't, especially on top flight games?

Hello Kie, what is the link to download football goal scoring data? Can't find it. Thank you for the very good content.

Excellent content!

Everything conveys info, lineup, state of mind, mixed different tournaments, even full crowd or not

Some interesting points but I think you possibly are missing the best and most effective point that you are in control of, the amount of units you bet with, By also varying the amount bet with you can limit your loses, but increase you winnings with the use of compounding.

What I was thinkin of watching this video is laying over 0.5 goals when the odds are low and backing inplay once they're higher to lock in a profit. Do you ever do this?

What's your winning rate using that strategy

Cool stuff!

This can work with hockey, if book makers have a game with a say a score of 1-3 sometimes I pick up an under bet with a 2.5 goals gaps only (under 6.5) around -200 odds, got to be quick because these odds are usually in the third period with 10-5mins left. This bet leaves room for the winning team to score and empty net goal. Or the team that's down to score once and usually the other team will get the empty net goal. Leaving you with 0.5 goal room to win in many scenarios but it's betting still, good luck.

@davidsupolik1860

Жыл бұрын

Saw your comment, saw NHL match that's 3:30 to end (3:4) and bet under 8.5 for 2.31 odd. No one make another goal. Nice tip.

interesting thanks ^^

I would be happy with odds 1.7 and a 75 percent strike, do you have any sort of examples of what data you use for good and bad momentum?

@KieMillett

Жыл бұрын

The ones I use in the video are pretty good examples, it is difficult to pinpoint the exact differences between good and bad games. All games fall on a spectrum between both teams frantically trying to get a goal to both teams not attempting to attack and waiting for the half time whistle. Practicing with small stakes is your best bet to see if you can get your desired strike rate. In my personal opinion I think it would be hard to bet at odds of 1.7 (58.8% implied probability) and have a 75% strike rate using any strategy, but anything is possible. Good luck 👍

@MrThaDoctor

Жыл бұрын

That would certainly be a highly EV+ result. If someone does it, they won't tell you :D

Goals Under or Over Which One Is Best?

What you describe as a strategy basically is what it comes down to all the time. Your personal skill. The reason your skill is most important is because all the data that you have, the bookmakers have them too. So using stats is pretty useless, just a way to pre-select e.g. If I take betfair data from 2011-2022 and look at every minute you could place a bet and the average odds (145 million individual bets placed), there is not a single minute which, over the long run is profitbale. On average, you lose 1,2% of your money. Closest is minute 39, where you only lost 0,2% if you bet on over 0,5 goals at min 39 ALL the time. The thing is, that you cannot trick math.

@Northsideman1

8 ай бұрын

Big difference between having access to data and being able to interpret it efficiently - this is where the punter can have the edge over the bookmaker - the punter has one - or at most usually two or three - events he's looking at - the corporate bookies - even with all their statisticians etc have many events to price on a busy day. With the best will in the world many mistakes will be made,

Soccer is my money!! I just keep an eye on a few games and bet over at the right time of the game. Also, look at the last 10-15 games and see how many goals were scored. For example, say the game is 75 minutes in or something like that and the game is 0-0. If you look at both teams and both have never ended in 0-0 end score, then more times than not you bet over 0.5. Just an example of one of my strategies

@twerking_hub

Жыл бұрын

How do you pick such teams and what do you look at and what league. If you don't mind sharing

Great work Kie. What software do you use ?

@KieMillett

Жыл бұрын

I am using Bet Angel, but I recommend browsing the market to find the one that's suitable for you.

Here is a little tip for you all. Select 3 games which start at same time, once game gets to the 20+ min mark, put a bet on each one for 1 goal. As soon as one match has a goal, cash out the other 2 for minimal loss. So for example £100 on each one, 2 minutes later one game has goal = £100, other 2 have a cash out for £90, so lose £20 = £80 profit. If you are super lucky, after 1 has a goal before you cash out the other 2, one of those can have a goal too.

@MrDj-rl2ef

11 ай бұрын

Do u have any other strategies that consistently work for higher pay outcomes ?

@MrDj-rl2ef

11 ай бұрын

And I’m not sure I understand your first Strategy after reading it a couple times I’m assuming u mean over 1 goal in the matches But the over 0.5 in the first half odds prob 1.23 at most ?

@DriesDroefneus

7 ай бұрын

@@MrDj-rl2ef He means choosing 3 live games who are still at 0-0 around the 20+ minute mark, so the odds for each one will be around 2.00 then

@JohnnyBarnes-th7zc

5 ай бұрын

Odds are not around 2.0 at 23 minutes earliest usually is around 40 minutes at best

@shauny6851

5 ай бұрын

@@JohnnyBarnes-th7zc For 1 goal in the first half odds are nowhere near 40 min at evens, it is around the 20-25 mark when at evens. I've been doing this for years.

“You learn more from failure than from success. Don’t let it stop you. Failure builds character.” - Unknown

Not bad

What I do is pick home team back odds 2 or less. Avoid the very high and very low scoring leagues. I normally lay the u0.5g fh market.

What site are you using at 12:08?

@KieMillett

Жыл бұрын

12:08 is the end of the video, did you type the wrong time by accident?

@BEYONDTHESCOREBOARD1

Жыл бұрын

My bad 10:27 is the correct time

I have a lot of success with no first half goal.

Real gambler's know... There are no shortcuts in gambling.... sometimes u feel a bet and it loses...and most of the time it's the bet that a sure winner

@KieMillett

Жыл бұрын

Some advice here: There is no such thing as a sure winner!

Can you send me your spreadsheet for working out the odds for first half goals. I will buy you a brew 👍

Is betting on red card yes/no a good strategy?

@KieMillett

Жыл бұрын

Something I've never tried, first place to start is to look at the long term data for the number of red cards in games.

Hey mate...miss ur video stay consistent... I have been betting on underdog and i think there is where the value really lies..betting on underdog that are wrongly priced and are not suppose to underdogs...but your own strategy

@KieMillett

Жыл бұрын

Thank you Karim, good luck with your strategy 👍

Right trading is nothing to do of betting betting means you buy odd and you going to end ... What you can do is find value during 90 min back or lay or lay and back and work the market And how you know if the price value back at moment or lay so if market offer me odd that i think is lower than whats happening at game i buy the odd and maybe 2 min later the price adjust for right price that supost to be so what you do sale it ... if you repeat that 10 times you gonna make money in long term ... My advice is record your screen in 20 or 100 games and write down Odds for ever minute and also open the bet 365 odds for the market that you wannna studdy Keep writing per exeample If match lets imagine At 85 min the game odd 1.25 for the odd to have other goal i will lay that because Some games valur are 3 ticks usualy in under leagues 3 ticks per min other leagues 5 or if is over over maybe 7 per min so if you watch and spend hours at front of software that is gonna automatic in your head when the price is valur or not I continue to give you examples if odd is 1. 25 at 85 m i will lay but even if i thimk.will happen goal and if the odd are 1.50 i will try to back in under goals in some situiacions because the value ther are on under goals but if 85 min is 1.50 and at 88 is 1.20 i will lay under goals because if you think you will have 5 mi extra time you will have 7 m so means the price is 3 ticks per m so i will lay but if the odd 1 min to finish the match are 1.10 i will sale the position because the value at that momemt is on under because pays you 10 ticks per m This is trading you need spend loads hours and know the prices and you will get it automatic Punters are hard to be profituble because the syteam are very eficent ... trading is compltly diferent Good luck in your Journey

The is actually half of an actually legit 1st half system that cashes around 90% of the time

@KieMillett

Жыл бұрын

It's very hard to find strategies with >90% strike rates where you aren't backing at incredibly short odds.

you are beating the market by using Stats, Experience and Football Knowledge? And what do you think the bookies are using? Tarot cards?

@KieMillett

Жыл бұрын

They are bookmaking. Setting and adjusting the odds based on their exposure

@GNMbg

Жыл бұрын

@@KieMillett and based on stats, knowledge and experience. Maybe you can have an edge in leagues outside the top 5,but it is still pretty much impossible for people who are not doing this as a full time job

@danielseaburg9763

Жыл бұрын

A betting exchange isn't a bookmaker. Hope that helps.

@manuelpeteira2731

Жыл бұрын

@@danielseaburg9763 but the enchange it moves true the bet 365 Because i would say 70 % of the traders watching the bet 365 odds so you can guide your self from them record your screen On enchange and whit bet 365 and watch the market while you have the odds open from both Its not easy to learn straight way but whit dedication and patiance anyone can get ther I start in 2017 had take me 1 year and half to become profitble On echange and i use stakes of 0.20 pis to learn lets i put ther 20 pounds on balance and for learn were puting stakes of 1 % of the 20 pds not everyone have the paticience to do it its like when you go study on univerysty take you 5 years to become engineer and you spend loads of thounsands on this you can do way cheaper way to learn whit stake of 0.20 or 0.50 And focus to learn once you start make some money whit small money focus on %% and not at thr money now

Sorry to tell you, it does not make a profit long term. I have tried this over eight years ago over eighteen months it showed a 6% loss. Dont get me wrong some betting set ups do work well over full time, first half i have never found a trader thats managed to make it work well. Tip, if you like to have a bet in first half, for good returns just back the away underdog to win 0-1 in first half and back btts yes to cover the red on the 0-1 + 15% on top.

@KieMillett

Жыл бұрын

No strategy inherently works or doesn't work. Every strategy's success depends on the matches you use it on.

@MRasel-gx1wj

6 ай бұрын

Sorry to tell you, it does work really well for me. It depends how you pre-set your match selection based on starting price, quantitative data and price movement. My profit loss ratio with this strategy is 1,5. Well, it's really high.

Just seems like normal betting tbh

@GNMbg

Жыл бұрын

Because it is

@KieMillett

Жыл бұрын

All betting is "normal". Every betting strategy is entirely dependent on using the strategy on the right markets.

@serbanaurelian4151

Жыл бұрын

He s actually saying that...if u choose the right markets u r gonna win.Ohhhh...Evrika! So,mathematically he doesn t have an edge,the market is absolutely tight ,the probability is 50% (adding Betfair commison of at least 2% makes it actually a losing strategy long term),but if u pick correctly u can win.Isn t that what betting is all about? The same goes for every market.This is not a strategy,surely not a winning one.Winning strategies are the ones when u have an edge .U don ' t.Plain and simple

@manuelpeteira2731

Жыл бұрын

@@KieMillett you need to study the markets not statistic s to find value i presume you still dont know whats diference of beting and trading

Has anyone seen a trader PNL for straight 12 months and say they in millions

Kie millett.... Sir! I'm a big fan of yours. I need a favor from you. I'm from Bangladesh. I need a bet 365 account. Can you please help me to have a varified bet 365 account? I would really appreciate sir! Waiting for your reply!

@KieMillett

Жыл бұрын

Sorry, I'm not able to create accounts on behalf of other people

This strategy is too hit or miss, but works better on games where there's going to be high scoring changes. A better strat for soccer games is to use the correction score combination strat at halftime or the beginning of the 2nd half where you take the team that is up 1-0 or 2-0 in the match and take that combo and bet on it. If you have enough money to bet on then give yourself some insurance and hedge it with betting on the draw or 2-1, 3-1, and 4-1 combo just in case the other team scores.

@austinewilliams7795

9 ай бұрын

hello, pls can you explain this better, i love the idea of this.

Kie, has someone hacked your Telegram account? Might be an idea to take a look👍

@KieMillett

Жыл бұрын

Hi David, I don't have a Telegram account, if you are seeing one it's most likely an impersonator.

@davidnuttall4796

Жыл бұрын

@Kie Millett thanks for that. Some guy was trying to get £500 off me for an API subscription. 🤣 I was asking "you" for the lay 1.01 on o2.5 market robot commands but "he" was only interested in trying to get me to sign up for something else.

@jaycalvin3783

Жыл бұрын

@@davidnuttall4796 Telegram is mostly used by criminals or for privacy purposes. No reason for yotubers like this to use that platform. Stay safe my guy! All of those in the comments are scammers.

@davidnuttall4796

Жыл бұрын

@@jaycalvin3783 cheers

Betting from minute 0 and taking a loss at 23 minutes is no different value than betting at 23 minutes and taking a loss at half time. Only a simpleton sees "oh odds are even now so lets bet". Trading is not profitable, otherwise you wouldnt have a patreon and try to make youtube money.

Sorry matey big fan of yours but you have no advantage over the market. The market is so efficient all through the half in respect to the action on the pitch . Some of the biggest syndicates in the world ensure it is on high liquidity matches.

@GNMbg

Жыл бұрын

true

@danielseaburg9763

Жыл бұрын

If that was true, then everyone would be outright breaking even minus commission. And nobody would be making profit from the markets. So, how does someone make consistent profit if the markets can't be beaten? because they can be beaten. That's how.

@timothywhitley383

Жыл бұрын

@@danielseaburg9763 If you think you can beat the betfair market pre game or in play on top flight football then wake up and smell the coffee. You are right on one thing though you may just may break even.

@techlos1

Жыл бұрын

​@@timothywhitley383🤣

@KieMillett

Жыл бұрын

Hi Timothy, I personally disagree with this, I see mental inefficiencies in the markets all the time. Also given how many people there are who are profitable for many years, I just can't see a way for the markets to be this efficient. However I'm open to evidence to change my mind 👍

U just talk and don’t show anything

@KieMillett

Жыл бұрын

I was explaining the strategy. If you are interested you can check out other videos on my channel where you can watch my actual bets.

West Ham 6 in 8 after 23 minutes, so you bet those and you are up four units. BUT also 8 in 8 in first half, you lay the odds and you are up eight units.