Tesla Q4 Earnings - Key Takeaways (Ep. 754)

I discuss thoughts from Tesla’s Q4 2023 earnings report, shareholder letter, and Elon Musk’s comments to investors.
Tesla Q4 2023 shareholder letter: digitalassets.tesla.com/tesla...
Social
🐦 Twitter / heydave7
🎧 Apple Podcast: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast...
🎙️Spotify open.spotify.com/show/2iin015...
📸 Instagram / heydave7
Dave Lee on Parenting, / @daveleeonlife7659
NOTE: Please don’t fall for scammers who might impersonate me or others in the comment section. I do NOT give out my number or ask people to contact me.
💁🏻‍♂️ Disclaimer: All content on this channel is for discussion and illustrative purposes only and should not be construed as professional financial advice or recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Should you need such advice, consult a licensed financial or tax advisor. All views expressed are personal opinion as of date of recording and are subject to change without responsibility to update views. No guarantee is given regarding the accuracy of information on this channel. Neither host or guests can be held responsible for any direct or incidental loss incurred by applying any of the information offered. Author is long TSLA and other stocks at time of original video publish date.
Check out my archived articles/posts on Tesla and investing: teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threa...
#Tesla #TSLA #Stocks

Пікірлер: 557

  • @nickyma4409
    @nickyma44095 ай бұрын

    Dave, I really like to watch your each Quarter report analysis, as a long investor, you always have the positive views from long term! Thank you!

  • @petejames4672
    @petejames46725 ай бұрын

    I'm down so much its painfull , but holding on till 2030 .... come on Elon

  • @cohenkevinloriqueen818

    @cohenkevinloriqueen818

    5 ай бұрын

    I hope you have great pain tolerance.. probably end up around $100 again.. unless federal reserve starts cutting rates, I don’t see any short term catalyst this year for Elon’s Tesla..

  • @dannyy7654

    @dannyy7654

    5 ай бұрын

    If ur early, you're wrong. Rotate to real AI stocks and get them gains.

  • @hobo1704

    @hobo1704

    5 ай бұрын

    Come on Elon 😂 Have fun holding those bags..

  • @Frausnowwhite

    @Frausnowwhite

    5 ай бұрын

    Yeah, I bought about 50k worth, can’t wait for more of it

  • @fractalelf7760
    @fractalelf77605 ай бұрын

    Hey Dave, the reason Tesla energy showed down is that final sales didn’t make it in, they are counted until delivery and all the approvals are granted. Watch Q1 2024 to pop on energy.

  • @dr-k1667
    @dr-k16675 ай бұрын

    I love ending Tesla earning with a Dave Lee video. Thanks Dave.

  • @generubinaudio
    @generubinaudio5 ай бұрын

    Thanks for your thoughts Dave. I have been following you since 2012 when we were investors on TMC. I hope your wife and family are doing well.

  • @johnakitto
    @johnakitto5 ай бұрын

    As Elon said at the 2018 shareholder meeting, only two things matter: overcoming global battery constraints and solving FSD (and now Optimus). The next-gen ramp must be timed such that battery supply can keep up-that's why they've waited. And focusing on volume over margins increases fleet size, which is their FSD moat. Don't panic!

  • @Professor-Scientist

    @Professor-Scientist

    5 ай бұрын

    Thanks John.

  • @hobo1704

    @hobo1704

    5 ай бұрын

    FSD 🤣

  • @RunForPeace-hk1cu

    @RunForPeace-hk1cu

    5 ай бұрын

    FSD was announced in 2014 … 10yrs ago 😂😂😂 Still in beta. Maybe it’ll work when your grandkids goes to Univ 😂😂😂 In the meantime, pay Tesla money to test their pre-alpha software!!! 😂😂😂

  • @paulpaul7777

    @paulpaul7777

    5 ай бұрын

    China has oversupply issue on battery, so the battery is not a constraint in the point of global view

  • @dennishui1102

    @dennishui1102

    5 ай бұрын

    That’s the problem with Elon. Tesla is sitting on a gold mine in selling car softwares and getting a 30% cut, but just focus only on FSD. Also Tesla needs to build out the supercharging network faster.

  • @MancoDeLepanto
    @MancoDeLepanto5 ай бұрын

    I was waiting for this! Thanks Dave

  • @peteroconnell2677
    @peteroconnell26775 ай бұрын

    Thanks Dave for a balanced view as always! Looking forward to you and James discussing v12 after you get a chance to test it out!

  • @petejames4672

    @petejames4672

    5 ай бұрын

    James thinks 1000 dollars by 2030 😮

  • @bobbybishop5662

    @bobbybishop5662

    5 ай бұрын

    Balanced ? 🤣🤣🤣

  • @Sharyf

    @Sharyf

    5 ай бұрын

    Balanced by what exactly? What is on opposit side of scales to pink glass goggles? 🤡

  • @roveriia6334

    @roveriia6334

    5 ай бұрын

    I am a James follower but James has Tesla stock going up every year which hasn't happened and no black swans in the next 5 years which is unlikely. I am a believer I follow what he says. I do my own research and keep realistic expectation. This coming from a long term investor and businessman that retired at 55. Good luck and I hope for the best and expect/accept the unexpected@@petejames4672

  • @ryanreeves70
    @ryanreeves705 ай бұрын

    $7500 up front rebate is like a huge interest rate drop ! LOWER PAYMENTS

  • @JonnyWaldes

    @JonnyWaldes

    5 ай бұрын

    Oh I never thought of that. I just figured you save $7500 one way or another. But yeah people are very sensitive to monthly payments.

  • @almostthere100
    @almostthere1005 ай бұрын

    Brilliant analysis, Dave! Many thanks.

  • @JoeVirella
    @JoeVirella5 ай бұрын

    Elon took his eye off the ball in Jan 2022 when he said that FSD would be so good that the next-gen vehicle didn't matter. He then set his sights on Twitter in April and the rest is history. Now we have this big growth gap because he got cocky, sadly.

  • @michelangelobuonarroti916

    @michelangelobuonarroti916

    5 ай бұрын

    The Twitter purchase has been an anchor on Tesla's growth.

  • @khalifornication
    @khalifornication5 ай бұрын

    You're Awesome Dude, Hope the Best for your wife, family and loved ones

  • @NatashaK808
    @NatashaK8085 ай бұрын

    Thank you, Dave! Great info! New Subscriber

  • @SamSam-qm1li
    @SamSam-qm1li5 ай бұрын

    Thanks Dave, we need you, you have been with Tesla for the long haul

  • @jgoemaat
    @jgoemaat5 ай бұрын

    Great analysis, but I don’t really know if they could’ve ramped multiple vehicles at the same time, especially with how unique each one is I think the teams can only work on so many things at one time, especially things like the cyber truck was so many technologies that really never been even used beforeand it’s expecting too much to ramp multiple vehicles at the same time

  • @michelangelobuonarroti916

    @michelangelobuonarroti916

    5 ай бұрын

    So, maybe too few teams?

  • @user-xu9zh1ui1t
    @user-xu9zh1ui1t5 ай бұрын

    I appreciate your honesty. And your clear, concise breakdown.

  • @gergc4871
    @gergc48715 ай бұрын

    I added 150 shares this morning.

  • @SteveBehalMUSIC
    @SteveBehalMUSIC5 ай бұрын

    Yours has been the most insightful analysis I’ve heard Dave. Thank you for that. I suggest the board needs to hold long time investors with a special dividend or two to keep the stock from tumbling during this transition period - thoughts please.

  • @davidwebb2337
    @davidwebb23375 ай бұрын

    Agree Dave. Thx for your vid.

  • @BeijingTesla
    @BeijingTesla5 ай бұрын

    Excellent insights Dave, many thanks

  • @georgegale6084
    @georgegale60845 ай бұрын

    Thanks. Market didn’t understand the opportunities. Time to make money.

  • @virgilwhetsel5289
    @virgilwhetsel52895 ай бұрын

    Thanks for adding much needed clarity to the analysis. I always appreciate and enjoy your discussions and calm, unbiased reviews.

  • @fastsnake

    @fastsnake

    5 ай бұрын

    "Unbiased", but he's never said anything remotely negative about Tesla his whole life...

  • @RajDeelish

    @RajDeelish

    5 ай бұрын

    Unbiased? 95% of his videos are about Tesla.

  • @Devilishlybenevolent

    @Devilishlybenevolent

    5 ай бұрын

    Unbiased? He's riding space karen the whole time 🤣🤣

  • @virgilwhetsel5289

    @virgilwhetsel5289

    5 ай бұрын

    @@Devilishlybenevolent I have been watching and listening to Dave Lee for about nine years. Listen carefully to what he says and consider every observation that he makes. His early observations on the potential of Tesla were spot on. It's money in the bank if you listen.

  • @michaelholmes8848
    @michaelholmes88485 ай бұрын

    Maybe maybe maybe. Excellent Monday morning quarter backing Dave.

  • @blakerupert4920
    @blakerupert49205 ай бұрын

    Really respect you Dave. The idea that Optimus sells next year, blatantly ignoring the warp effect of Elon Time, is pure copium. No chance it sells before 2026, and even that seems early given how minimally productive the units are rn

  • @davidwill1320

    @davidwill1320

    5 ай бұрын

    Musk didn't say sell. He said ship. I think those "sales" (shipments) will be limited in numbers and include deliveries to companies Musk owns. I expect shipments will be much like Pepsi buying 21 semis to do testing and evaluation. I agree volume production/sales won't happen until 2026, at best.

  • @blakerupert4920

    @blakerupert4920

    5 ай бұрын

    Fair enough! Still... Elon Time can't be ignored. I'd put significant sales (>500 units) no sooner than 2028. @@davidwill1320

  • @nickjohns7254

    @nickjohns7254

    5 ай бұрын

    Get ready for sub 100 stock price soon.

  • @marianpazdzioch6632

    @marianpazdzioch6632

    4 ай бұрын

    well, some people never learn

  • @arleneallen8809
    @arleneallen88095 ай бұрын

    Seems like they would have ramped the Semi by now. They have had a long shakedown period with Pepsi and themselves, so I would estimate the Semi is technically ready to produce. They didn't break ground for the factory until recently, which suggest something else held them up. Certainly not capital. At the moment, I'm in the camp that thinks the 4680 production ramp has been the monkey wrench. All their designs were predicated on that supposed 56% improvement we saw presented in battery day. If not there yet, or at very low yields, that crimps all projects depending on it. Might also be why CT range came out so low. All highly speculative.

  • @belgiumhr3524

    @belgiumhr3524

    5 ай бұрын

    I don't think that's highly speculative. I would say it's extremely likely. The 4680 didn't deliver what they thought it going to deliver as it seems battery improvement seems to be on a plateau right now with only small improvements.

  • @davidwill1320

    @davidwill1320

    5 ай бұрын

    Yup...batteries. Most seem to think Tesla is flush with batteries, but indicators, like the delay with Semi and even CT, suggest otherwise.

  • @JOSELOPEZ-bq3us
    @JOSELOPEZ-bq3us5 ай бұрын

    Thanks Dave...

  • @gridcoregilry666
    @gridcoregilry6665 ай бұрын

    woah Dave, this is a STELLAR take, thank you

  • @jada90
    @jada905 ай бұрын

    Thanks!

  • @clantran5445
    @clantran54453 ай бұрын

    Dave please come back to hold our hand through this “white knuckle “ period.

  • @Miguelsw
    @Miguelsw5 ай бұрын

    Nice work David. BYD is making a mint out of the electric bus market. Surely tesla can adapt the semi for that market and give them some real competition

  • @rikers263
    @rikers2635 ай бұрын

    Great episode

  • @shingnosis
    @shingnosis5 ай бұрын

    You're 100% right. "Limbo period" was the first thing that came to my mind.

  • @oumuamua1963
    @oumuamua19635 ай бұрын

    I would love a boxier look on the model y giving a full SUV look

  • @jindatidicaprio6615
    @jindatidicaprio66155 ай бұрын

    Excellent points

  • @chrisose4585
    @chrisose45855 ай бұрын

    I will never understand why people were not impressed by Tesla. Model Y -First ever EV to become the best selling in the world. How is that not impressive ?!?!😂😂😂😂😂

  • @petejames4672

    @petejames4672

    5 ай бұрын

    Build quality

  • @Pete_YT

    @Pete_YT

    5 ай бұрын

    @@petejames4672only in the early model 3 ramp, not an issue anymore yet media lie about it.

  • @rudbeckia885

    @rudbeckia885

    5 ай бұрын

    Agreed

  • @richardwolf6269

    @richardwolf6269

    5 ай бұрын

    If you are only selling 2 models of high volume cars is why! Toyota’s and many other legacy car makers overall sales are much higher. No real high volume truck, no van etc.

  • @JamesBond-qv2ht

    @JamesBond-qv2ht

    5 ай бұрын

    @@petejames4672 rubbish. Build quality is fine.

  • @johnmacri7440
    @johnmacri74405 ай бұрын

    Great summary Dave. I’ve been saying for awhile Tesla needs to manage these calls better & express thought much more clearly. Dave you’re the best.

  • @roveriia6334

    @roveriia6334

    5 ай бұрын

    I expect Elon understands cause and effect an expected the current results. I expect Tesla KZreadrs to come up with tactics even though the real message is Tesla is just another car company that is spending billions on innovation that may or may not be monetized. If they do monetize these innovations profits won't be realized until 2026. This coming from a long term Tesla investor.

  • @ssing7113

    @ssing7113

    5 ай бұрын

    Elon did. He was toned down It’s called you’re delusional wanting what can’t be given and holding someone to impossible standards allowing yourself to get upset. Elon didn’t upset you. YOU did

  • @NextGenEvs
    @NextGenEvs5 ай бұрын

    I would pay ANY price for a boxier Model Y with a little high ground clearance!

  • @sunrisejak2709
    @sunrisejak27095 ай бұрын

    Like it or not Tesla is viewed by most people including shareholders as a "car company". They are measured in that industry against other competitors by car product portfolio and unit volume. The failure to add new models and segments when compared with frequent launches by other manufacturers (BYD or even some leagacy as example) is concerning. With 3/Y being responsible for the vast majority of revenue is a risk if a softening of those "2" products. Too many long term projects happens. Sapping resources that have yet to be commercialized is another concern. Capex and R&D are high and again being spent on "futures". I own a M3 dual motor. Great car but,,,, To be honest it is not the car I truly desire. Tesla does not make a model that fits my wishes. However other manufacturers do fulfill the many segments and it's only a matter of time before I likely jump ship. Tesla needs to focus on expansion of car model offerings and the stock price and excitement among shareholders and potential customers would rise accordingly. Finally Elon wants more power. What Tesla really could benefit from is "Co-CEOs". This would help drive decision making in a better balanced way and not such a focus Elons visionary hobby shop. The board of directors are also too weak and failing in their roles to help guide the sometimes distracted CEO. Elon does not own Tesla. Yes, he's amazing but he and Tesla could be better with a more balanced plan and execution on time lines and project focus.

  • @amyniemann9564
    @amyniemann95645 ай бұрын

    Dave I can’t believe the comments we get when out in public?!?! People are believing the media lies and fud. I try to speak up and tell them but frankly I hate arguing with people. I truly wish Tesla would step up and do marketing. I don’t think it’s my place to correct the people I encounter. I love my M Y. We are boomers and every penny is in TSLA. I wish the timeline would move up we don’t have 20 years. Your observations are spot on, thank you.

  • @Pete_YT

    @Pete_YT

    5 ай бұрын

    Their ignorance is our opportunity. This is an iPhone moment.

  • @S2marone
    @S2marone5 ай бұрын

    Thanks Dave😸 👍

  • @2008israelramos
    @2008israelramos5 ай бұрын

    FSD, Optimus, battery breakthrough.....all long shots, but all could increase stock by 10-50x.

  • @LinasKricenas
    @LinasKricenas5 ай бұрын

    Nice to hear opinion of a person who is Tesla fan and supporter, but can judge things critically. I can't stand those toxic super-mega-fans ready to cut your throat when some critics are expressed.

  • @badam1814
    @badam18145 ай бұрын

    Ding Ding Ding! Dave Lee, is a winner! Tesla sat on it's laurels while Elon was busy with Twitter. Now there is a gap in their progress that investor's are paying for. Elon is spread too thin and Tesla is suffering. He's also opened himself up to massive criticism, which surely is wearing on him.

  • @nickjohns7254

    @nickjohns7254

    5 ай бұрын

    FSD doesn't work, robot is a pipe dream, car demand is slumping, and Musk is on drugs. It's time to sell this pig.

  • @spacecowboy2483
    @spacecowboy24835 ай бұрын

    If an investor wants to see a bigger cash flow and tesla becoming a better car company, it might as well steer clear and go for Ford because it is in the wrong investment. That is not tesla's roadmap, and that is ok. In fact, that is why so many people are invested in it (me included).

  • @justforthehackofit
    @justforthehackofit5 ай бұрын

    a compelling battery product well scaled up - now that would be something for '24

  • @Nilz4FR
    @Nilz4FR5 ай бұрын

    Energy Storage is Nr. 1 Dave - Cheers!

  • @timtessman3107
    @timtessman31075 ай бұрын

    Remember that while Tesla is still operating with leading profit margins, this is happening while they incur the added cost of including their FSD hardware in every vehicle. That has been estimated at $1,500 per vehicle.

  • @matthewgreig955
    @matthewgreig9555 ай бұрын

    Great commentary Dave. Been a TSLA investor myself since 2016. I agree with likely disagreement among management. The departures of Zach and Ganesh could explain some of this uncertainty. As for AI/robotics, this was never part of the OG investment thesis. I’m talking TMC days. I’ve hedged/cashed out significantly well above current prices and plan to re-enter later in 2024-25.

  • @diyguy446
    @diyguy4465 ай бұрын

    Wow thanks Dave for boiling the results down to a 10 min vid.... goooot jooooob

  • @georgeginsburg545
    @georgeginsburg5455 ай бұрын

    not having the $7500 tax credit on the Model 3 in 2024 is going to hurt sales.

  • @NewYork0110J

    @NewYork0110J

    5 ай бұрын

    Tesla car prices are high compared to the regular cars people are using. Range is the issue. I am tesla owner and investor do feel we need to change our expectations I always have feeling we wont be going to 20 millions exports by 2030 as we may have years of slow growth. Real world range and EPA needs to be close else the battery size need to be increased to increase consumer confidence. I am feeling Toyota has a bigger edge as Hybrid sounds better option if battery range differential is not improved.

  • @georgeginsburg545

    @georgeginsburg545

    5 ай бұрын

    @@NewYork0110J Interesting. I didn’t think range was a problem anymore unless you were going on a long trip. I know EPA recently enforced more accurate mileage ratings. But my big concern is having enough batteries, especially 4680 batteries, for the whole product line.

  • @e.w.6470
    @e.w.64705 ай бұрын

    Compared with the rev growth in 2022 and 2021, 19% in 2023 is a big slow down. It doesn't justify the stock price with a slow down rev growth and deteriorating margin if we only look at tesla as an auto business. However, the stock price is cheap if auto drive and robot business can materialize in the future. we are just not there yet although we can see lots of progress. I do hope Tesla will be the biggest AI company one day. The stock price is back to where it was three years ago. Innovation is not easy and it takes time and risks but we still believe the future is faster than we think, don't we?

  • @2023gainer
    @2023gainer5 ай бұрын

    Great Dip Opportunity in EV sector stocks in Jan. Fisker... Tesla.. Rivian and others including EVTOLS and EV charging. Thumbs UP video/ comment.. Thanks.

  • @simonpannett8810
    @simonpannett88105 ай бұрын

    Imo interest free loans to customers could swing deals without margin erosion?? All that cash in hand?? Model 2 could have been better prioritised vs CT??

  • @marcelobandeira9178
    @marcelobandeira91785 ай бұрын

    Hey Dave, wouldn't the cybertruck ramp filling the void until the next gen vehicle? A lot of the new technology deployed in the CT will be probably used for the next gen, so the CT may be getting used as a "prototype" to mature the new tech... What do you think?

  • @joshuaguo1326
    @joshuaguo13262 ай бұрын

    Down to $163 after Q1 delivery, please do a video!

  • @peter-hr1gl
    @peter-hr1gl5 ай бұрын

    Tesla's primary profit center TODAY is automobiles. Wish it was their energy division and maybe even their robotics or IA divisions, but they are not profit centers (yet). SO based on what generates revenue today, the EV market is at a breather point this year. I do view Tesla as dead money for most if not all of this year. It's a hold stock for me. If it drops again below $100/sh, might be a buy for me as it was when it last dropped to that level. All depends how the EV market plays out. If they do not come up with their own competition for solid state batteries, I think the 10 minute recharge time combined with having the infrastructure for that and having vehicle prices the majority of buyers can afford (whatever price point that is), then Tesla may become a strong buy or a sell. The problem I see with them right now is they think THEIR view of how people should drive (or not drive) and how THEY think people should interact with their vehicles (via limited haptic buttons and no other controls and using mostly a video touchscreen) will limit adoption. The wheels of user behavior grind slowly. Traditional auto makers who retain legacy controls will cater to a HUGE legacy market who are not ready to adapt/change (myself included).

  • @augustclark3337

    @augustclark3337

    5 ай бұрын

    The iPhone springs to mind... many said the same about the Blackberry keyboard..

  • @CasualCreed
    @CasualCreed5 ай бұрын

    Smartest ppl in the world doing What they are best at in the world. Who am I to doubt what they believe in

  • @Pete_YT

    @Pete_YT

    5 ай бұрын

    This 👆

  • @filippxx
    @filippxx5 ай бұрын

    Selling a few units of the bot as early as next year in Elon' time means a few units about 8 years from now in real life.

  • @Ryannnnnnnnnnnnnnnn

    @Ryannnnnnnnnnnnnnnn

    5 ай бұрын

    Not necessarily. Model Y was early. Model 3 was actually early as well, relative to the original timeline. And it lagged the revised, accelerated timeline only by 6 months.

  • @hobo1704

    @hobo1704

    5 ай бұрын

    ​@@Ryannnnnnnnnnnnnnnn they are cars 😂

  • @AlfredPapallo
    @AlfredPapallo5 ай бұрын

    Thanks Dave, I live in country Australia, and I would buy a Model Y if it was more like an SUV with 8" ground clearance and space for a spare wheel in the huge well in the trunk.

  • @filippxx
    @filippxx5 ай бұрын

    I think Elon is still addressing the earnings call like back in the days of exotic hypergrowth company, but it is not anything like that being part of the Magnificent 7. So get your shit together Elon

  • @poker4400
    @poker44005 ай бұрын

    I find it funny that most investors think Tesla is just a car company. It's more like 12 startups companies.

  • @juliahello6673
    @juliahello66735 ай бұрын

    I think the lesson here is that Tesla should use a platform to create several different models. That’s what other automakers do. Elon doesn’t realize that people like variety.

  • @Pete_YT

    @Pete_YT

    5 ай бұрын

    People like the best possible car they can afford. Most can’t afford yet. Next gen car will take Tesla to 20M units per year by 2030.

  • @ericl1421
    @ericl14215 ай бұрын

    Im glad the more volume less margin won, cause i haven't gotten a model Y yet. Lol. If FSD 12 is as good as it looks, will probably pull the trigger this year.

  • @russwright
    @russwright5 ай бұрын

    The best observation made here is that Tesla management has not managed this transition to the next gen vehicle very well. Now we're stuck in a few years of lull before the big takeoff with the low cost vehicle. A Tesla Van would be great. We have the Model Y refresh coming but how much did Highland help model 3 sales or margins? Seems like not a lot. Maybe they will go with 48v in the 3 or Y before the low cost car.

  • @mirvine1
    @mirvine15 ай бұрын

    This analysis focuses too much on Telsa the "auto" company. As margins on the cars go down, margins and profits on energy, software and AI will increase which is Tesla's future.

  • @JonnyWaldes
    @JonnyWaldes5 ай бұрын

    Bro honestly I view Optimus as marketing to sell cars. It's a tech demo like Honda Asimo. To show you how smart and good at building cool looking things Tesla is, in order to increase perception of the company. As a prototype it is really only 5% done, because the software is 95% of the ball game. They haven't demonstrated Optimus doing anything autonomously. It's just a remote control toy not even a working prototype. Dave I think you should manage your expectations. Wise man once said "Building a prototype is easy, production is hard."

  • @tipkoonline
    @tipkoonline5 ай бұрын

    Think it is hard to drive sales with few models to offer, Mecedes ,BMW have couple of dosen different models and variants and they sell about 2 maybe 2,5 mill of vehicles

  • @treelizard99
    @treelizard995 ай бұрын

    I had iniially thought that the long term volume of 3/Y would be 4 to 5 million per. Looks like I was off by half. Although I still wonder what the volumes would be with lower interest rates?

  • @42bill

    @42bill

    5 ай бұрын

    I’m pretty sure Tesla also thought the 3/Y could reach 4-5 million units per year. Look at the size of Giga Berlin and Giga Austin. They have room for many more production lines and neither of those plants are running 3 shifts. I think everyone is equally surprised that demand has fallen or at least leveled off

  • @CyclingNewsOnline
    @CyclingNewsOnline5 ай бұрын

    Worth pointing out that more cars on the road means more data for training FSD. Short term margin cuts are fractional compared to the earning potential FSD offers.

  • @j.c.4192

    @j.c.4192

    5 ай бұрын

    Garbage in garbage out data

  • @davidwill1320
    @davidwill13205 ай бұрын

    I'm fine with what I heard at this earnings call. No surprises really. I don't care about guidance for 2024, as I'm in it for the long haul. I keep my expectations reasonable and take into consideration everything Tesla does is on the cutting edge and may miss on established goals. AND I don't get sucked into all the hyper fan boy narrative that is so prolific on You Tube.

  • @leolaw624
    @leolaw6245 ай бұрын

    Without Tesla daily, I really hope that Dave can give us unbiased analysis, which he does. I know there are a lot of super Tesla bullish KZreadrs out there, but I'm not a big fan of it. Btw, good video Dave!

  • @christopherfry2844
    @christopherfry28445 ай бұрын

    i suppose utility storage is too boring to mention. Yet the S-curve looks Simply Stupendous!!

  • @christopherfry2844

    @christopherfry2844

    5 ай бұрын

    [further] In an eye blink, utility storage will replace a significant proportion of fossil fuel usage. No wonder Tesla is erecting the largest building on planet Earth.

  • @tHebUm18
    @tHebUm185 ай бұрын

    I feel like the biggest factor in 3/Y not ramping more is down to interest rates. If the interest rates for car loans were still 3% and the prices are what they are today, easily Tesla would be pumping out 500k+ more per year.

  • @thu-haeaster9246
    @thu-haeaster92465 ай бұрын

    Tsla should hire u as consultant and speaker :)

  • @richardwolf6269

    @richardwolf6269

    5 ай бұрын

    Don’t you mean pumper!

  • @Steph1
    @Steph15 ай бұрын

    I’m surprised to hear Optimus might get sales next year. That means they’re already considering production lines 🤯

  • @42bill

    @42bill

    5 ай бұрын

    Yeah Optimus will go on sale next year at the same time FSD is out of beta and is released all over as a final product. News flash: it ain’t happening.

  • @JakeIbeeMassa

    @JakeIbeeMassa

    5 ай бұрын

    Same as fsd was supposed to drive you from your LA to SF while you're asleep in 2019. Or it'll get pre order and deliveries will start at the same time as the Roadster. As Elon would say, he's extremely optimistic with his timeline.

  • @tatata1543

    @tatata1543

    5 ай бұрын

    I wouldn’t bet on seeing it next year or any time soon. I’m amazed people still take Musk at his word anymore. The guy is notorious for overpromising and underdelivering.

  • @clantran5445

    @clantran5445

    5 ай бұрын

    @@tatata1543 you are being kind. He needs to be jailed for faking FSD.

  • @texascajun9954

    @texascajun9954

    5 ай бұрын

    Elon stated they would SHIP Optimus robots next year, didn’t say SELL. IMO they will only lease them for many years until they reach millions a year in production and then maybe they will sell them

  • @charleschen4766
    @charleschen47665 ай бұрын

    SFD development is compute constrained for video training.

  • @machoopichoo2
    @machoopichoo25 ай бұрын

    Even though their were good reasons to delay the semi production, I am not sure why they are building the building now. They could have pre-built it, so. when ready to fit out and.start production, it was already there - no delays waiting for construction to be done. Just my $0.02

  • @XRP-O.G
    @XRP-O.G5 ай бұрын

    Fingers crossed we see low 1's before moving back up.

  • @carnesir
    @carnesir3 ай бұрын

    Where are u Dave when I need a conviction to hold on my Tesla shares

  • @NextGenEvs
    @NextGenEvs5 ай бұрын

    No $7,500 credit on the Model 3 is going to really hurt M3 sales after the hyped from the refresh dies down in 3-6 months.

  • @Ryannnnnnnnnnnnnnnn

    @Ryannnnnnnnnnnnnnnn

    5 ай бұрын

    Depends on interest rates 6 months from now.

  • @swainp2012
    @swainp20125 ай бұрын

    Can’t they partner with any OEM and start producing PHEV, EV in large volume?

  • @MrEd2291
    @MrEd22915 ай бұрын

    I agree with everything you said and am invested for the long term. I understand Elon comes with both plusses and minuses and you can't have one without the other. Nonetheless, Tesla's refusal to give any guidance about production or margins and refusal to fight actively against FUD is damaging to its long term goals and frustrating for investors.

  • @incognitotorpedo42

    @incognitotorpedo42

    5 ай бұрын

    At this point there is nothing Elon brings to the table that makes up for his horrible judgment and other negatives.

  • @JamesBond-qv2ht

    @JamesBond-qv2ht

    5 ай бұрын

    @@incognitotorpedo42 you win - dumbest comment of the day. Congratulations!

  • @claus1225
    @claus12255 ай бұрын

    Musk's Takeway: "G F Y"

  • @kevtheobald
    @kevtheobald5 ай бұрын

    Since I am not rich, I need more time to add shares to my portfolio. Today TSLA dropped down another chunk and I bought more. It will probably dip even more. Wall Street wants exciting announcements to give shares a sugar rush price jump, so they can buy low and sell on the hype. I think the unboxed production process is under valued. If Tesla makes it work, that will not only make the odds of the compact being successful, but it will alter the way Tesla designs vehicles. New models or complete upgrades for current models 😅will be designed with the unboxed process in mind. If Tesla cuts 30% of cost out of most models just from the new process that will have a huge impact. I believe this is why Toyota was quick to announce they are developing something like the unboxed process. I agree with Musk that Tesla developing production tools in-house is going to make duplicating the unboxed process very difficult. Tesla robotics program is impressive so far, but just like FSD, the final stages of development will likely be the hardest. For me 2024 and 2025 are basically building years. I am not going in thinking TSLA shares will go crazy high anytime soon. Think about how Tesla traded sideways for years before the moon shot happened. I am bad at timing stocks, so I just invest for the long-term and buy on dips when possible. If Tesla is not at $1500 by 2030, I will be disappointed. I am thinking $3000 is doable. The dream is $10000 or higher. Much would have to go right for that to happen. It is all a gamble.

  • @etran211
    @etran2115 ай бұрын

    Coming to Dave for common sense with a little of cool aid juice.

  • @natsidruk86
    @natsidruk865 ай бұрын

    He also talked about fsd...like 8 years

  • @kensi166
    @kensi1665 ай бұрын

    Stop dropping price. The timing is right to start marketing or pay $$ to main stream media. Gotta play the game.

  • @EdwinKua
    @EdwinKua5 ай бұрын

    I say lower margins and push out as many Teslas as possible. Build up the charging network where other EV brands can also tap into. The play is at market grip and dominance, not price war.

  • @danielstapler4315
    @danielstapler43155 ай бұрын

    I think the model 2 will arrive earlier then they are saying. Let's say you were going to make a model 3 using the unboxed method. The components wouldn't change: doors, trunk, bonnet, body, windscreen, door glass, door internal construction, wheels, tyres, seats, mirrors, etc, etc. You would need steer by wire and brake by wire. Now for a model 2 you need a lower performance motor than the model 3 even if the M3 motor would be the easiest approach and the car needs to be smaller size. One change is putting the doors, trunk, bonnet on a jig with the body to paint them all at the same time. If a shortage of 4680 cells was the issue, that would not delay the setting up of the new process or producing 100 compact model cars. They can't say let's wait for 4680 availability, ok they're here, now let's start the 18 month Model 2 development process.

  • @Gargamel-n-Rudmilla
    @Gargamel-n-Rudmilla5 ай бұрын

    I think energy and services will have to fill the gap in growing Tesla in addition to modest @20% growth in autos for 2024-2025. If the US FED cuts more than once because inflstion starts another leg down to 2% then I can see EV sales out performing expextations. Also Ford and GM are cutting EV production giving Tesla a breather. I see price rises for US EVs if the economy just keeps humming along. With Cybertruck having a massive halo effext on the brand and hoefully a bit more mainstream ( tv, auto magazine, newspaper ads) to widen awareness to fight the FUD.

  • @gridcoregilry666
    @gridcoregilry6665 ай бұрын

    very interesting comments here, many seem to be new to TSLA or in for the short term, they have no idea

  • @yogiyoda
    @yogiyoda5 ай бұрын

    How low might Tesla stock price go in the next few months? I'm bag holding like I did in 2022 :(

  • @table_tennis_fever
    @table_tennis_fever5 ай бұрын

    you can forget optimus. WAY FAR into future. we don't just want a robot fold clothes in an awkward way, we wanna stretch it first to avoid wrinkles, and that will take tesla another year to solve. it'll seriously be a DECADE before the robot can do a few useful things properly at home. Why don't we solve its predecessor first, aka FSD? that's still nowhere in sight. let's hope v12 is not just another local max

  • @frankdindl790
    @frankdindl7905 ай бұрын

    Interest rates are hurting everyone including Tesla.

  • @simengreen2671
    @simengreen26715 ай бұрын

    Cybertruck is ramping, probably dont need to cut prices on M3 and MY to much, updatet M3, soon updatet MY, and if rates are down next two years.. I think they will do well

  • @MattKozFinancialFreedom
    @MattKozFinancialFreedom5 ай бұрын

    Thanks Dave, why is it that the scaling of CyberTruck & Semi is ignored when reflecting upon this growth gap?

  • @Ryannnnnnnnnnnnnnnn

    @Ryannnnnnnnnnnnnnnn

    5 ай бұрын

    Because rightly or wrongly, investors essentially do not believe the semi will ever happen, and Elon has tamped down the Cybertruck expectations quite forcefully.

  • @robkeshav800
    @robkeshav8005 ай бұрын

    I wonder if Tesla's growth in Semi and other related product is constrained by internal 4680 battery production and other batteries being made by Panasonic & other vendors. As they say the chain is as strong as the weakest link.

  • @davidwill1320

    @davidwill1320

    5 ай бұрын

    I think that is, at the very least, a contributing factor.

  • @krch001
    @krch0015 ай бұрын

    It would really help if folks share (ballpark is good enough) how many shares they own for perspective e.g. someone saying I am so down and crying about it when owning 5 shares..you get my point.

  • @Mrkevino77

    @Mrkevino77

    5 ай бұрын

    Holding 941 all in I’m 61 was hoping to start selling next year and retire but looks like I’ll have to postpone that for another couple of years! Kinda pissed but could be worse and I’m confident for the long term

  • @krch001

    @krch001

    5 ай бұрын

    @@Mrkevino77 Hang in there, better days will come..

  • @42bill

    @42bill

    5 ай бұрын

    Sold all my 2463 shares at 220 a week or so ago as I saw a big fall coming after earnings. Glad I did and I think we have at least half a year of the stick falling more on the average. I will go back all in only if/when tsla dips to 140 or maybe 120.

  • @krch001

    @krch001

    5 ай бұрын

    @@42bill that’s a nice bag. Be careful of timing the market though. Great if it pays off! All the best. For people who own much less especially the younger folks (under 40) I recommend not to buy and sell but just dca while the stock is down which could very well be for the next 10-18 months.

  • @Pete_YT

    @Pete_YT

    5 ай бұрын

    Around 11k shares. Holding.

  • @LionheartLivin
    @LionheartLivin5 ай бұрын

    From my experience in the market and understanding that market price especially in the short and sometimes even medium term is not truly dictated by the fundamentals of the business my best educated guess is that now is an accumulation period for many huge investors both retail and institutional!!!;)🎉🎉🎉❤❤❤ not fin. Advice of course

  • @LarryH49
    @LarryH495 ай бұрын

    It may have to do with 48 volts.