Statistics 101: Joint and Marginal Probabilities

Statistics 101: Joint and Marginal Probabilities
In this video we look at the individual and joint behavior of two stocks: General Electric (GE) and Apple (APPL). More specifically, we analyze the daily returns for the entire 2012 trading year for these two stocks looking at the probability they suffer a tandem loss, tandem gain, or diverge. This leads to the construction of a joint and marginal probability table.
Keep in mind that 1) this video is not about finance per se and 2) it is not a time-series analysis. I am just using financial data to demonstrate the concept. Enjoy!
My playlist table of contents, Video Companion Guide PDF documents, and file downloads can be found on my website: www.bcfoltz.com

Пікірлер: 82

  • @ruchikasandakelum1308
    @ruchikasandakelum13088 жыл бұрын

    Love the words of encouragement at the begining

  • @ConcettaReda

    @ConcettaReda

    7 жыл бұрын

    I also appreciated that! I have barely any statistical background. My work is paying for me to take some additional courses. However, as a 24 y/o college grad it's been disheartening to go back to school and find things so complicated!

  • @troffhudson

    @troffhudson

    7 жыл бұрын

    Same.

  • @kaylaprentice5118
    @kaylaprentice51184 жыл бұрын

    I needed those words of encouragement so bad. I got tears in my eyes. My spirit has sort of been crushed because STATS is so hard for me. Thank you so much.

  • @BrandonFoltz
    @BrandonFoltz11 жыл бұрын

    Oh thank you so much for the kind words! But the real commendation goes to you for making the effort to learn and improve as you see fit (I really mean that!). Hopefully you can find other videos helpful as well. All the best, B.

  • @BrandonFoltz
    @BrandonFoltz11 жыл бұрын

    Haha glad you liked it! We often underestimate how much we can use a little pep talk from those around us. I try to put supportive people around me who have my best interests at heart. Thanks for the tip on the use of color. I try to think how it will help understanding so I am glad you found it helpful. Take care! - B

  • @Tenjobs
    @Tenjobs8 жыл бұрын

    Thank you very much for taking the time to create these videos, I love how you say that you and everyone has faith in us, it is very uplifting to hearing those words when sometimes we don't hear it from loved ones. Thank you and good job, keep posting more videos pleasssseeee :D

  • @Surya42930
    @Surya4293011 жыл бұрын

    Your honest approach of making these videos only to help others is much appreciated Brandon...Thank you from my heart

  • @BrandonFoltz
    @BrandonFoltz11 жыл бұрын

    Hi Azmeer! Thank you for your comment. All of my vids are organized into playlists which you can access on my channel homepage. KZread does a bad job of letting you know the video you are watching is part of a playlist. :(

  • @evesmith3201
    @evesmith32013 жыл бұрын

    Thank you Brandon Foltz you save me from a lot of headaches

  • @jennifer2386
    @jennifer23867 жыл бұрын

    Thank you so much for your first comment in this video. I really, really needed to hear this! I am a junior math major and I have been feeling quite blah! Again, thanks!!!

  • @neverxyouxmind
    @neverxyouxmind11 жыл бұрын

    That was an unexpected but definitely welcome pep talk! Love the video. The use of color definitely helped me understand that I was overthinking my problem set. Keep it up! :)

  • @goyalamit1984
    @goyalamit19843 жыл бұрын

    Thanks Brandon for adding your Stats video on an open source platform. I found them very helpful and much better than many paid platforms

  • @andersonfbrito_
    @andersonfbrito_8 жыл бұрын

    Guy, this video is amazing. It's so clear. Congratulations! Thumbs up for you! :)

  • @ThuyNguyen-bu9ge
    @ThuyNguyen-bu9ge10 жыл бұрын

    Thank you so much for explaining joint probability, to be able to learn about this subject with such a caring teacher is a blessing. Thanks.

  • @satishbanka
    @satishbanka8 жыл бұрын

    Very good video explaining the basics of Joint and Marginal Probabilities!!! Thanks Brandon!

  • @kellybamford6016
    @kellybamford6016 Жыл бұрын

    I really, really needed to hear your first comment today. Thank you sooo much for saying just the right thing. I have been struggling so much and there's so much riding on me doing exceptionally well in my stats course.

  • @FlyingCatPro
    @FlyingCatPro10 жыл бұрын

    Really enjoyed your video on "Joint and Marginal Probabilities" - very well explained and easy to understand - thanks. Towards the end of the video it makes mention of a follow on video about conditional probabilities. I've looked high and low for this follow on but can't seem to find it. Would it possible to let me know which video this is - a link would be great. Many thanks and keep on posting your great tutorials.

  • @jmrjmr8254
    @jmrjmr82548 жыл бұрын

    Hi, I;m following the Introduction to Probability playlist. At the end of the video you said that we were going to learn more about conditional probabilities based on this same problem (GE and Apple), but the next video didn't cover that subject. Thanks for the awesome lectures!

  • @garf5717

    @garf5717

    6 жыл бұрын

    hey, you can calculate the conditional probability simply by dividing the joint probability by the marginal probability of the condition that has already occured. For example: (assuming that G and A are not independent events!) if you want to know chance (=probability) of GE no loss given that Apple has no loss, or "P(G given A)". (1) you find the joint probability of both GE and Apple showing no loss, or "P(G intersect A)". (2) you find the marginal probability of Apple no loss, or "P(A)". (3) You divide (1) by (2). In other words, P(G given A) = P (G intersect A) / P(A). Hope this Helps !

  • @santhoshsaravanan7893
    @santhoshsaravanan789310 жыл бұрын

    hey brandon thanks alot for encouraging me. I am struggling in this topic because of the lack of explanation. You explained it very well

  • @BrandonFoltz
    @BrandonFoltz11 жыл бұрын

    Hey that's ok though! Learning should be challenging. I am sure you will do just fine. Thanks for the comment and hang in there. :) All the best, B.

  • @elmojoseph
    @elmojoseph10 жыл бұрын

    Thank you Brandon for your motivational explanation marginal and joint p's. You sounded crystal clear.

  • @ConcettaReda
    @ConcettaReda7 жыл бұрын

    Great video! Wonderful, really! I even like the music. One suggestion would be to link to the next sequence somewhere in the video or in the description. As of now, the auto-play is a different channel and I'm having trouble finding the video on conditional probability after having gone to your channel. I'll find it eventually, no worries, but that might be something to consider. Thanks for your service! This helped me!

  • @AkimboAliTheR
    @AkimboAliTheR7 жыл бұрын

    love your introduction. Yes we can!!!

  • @fakeburrito5404
    @fakeburrito540411 жыл бұрын

    Thanks for the positive encouragement and for a well-explained video with the colored presentation. As a visual learner I really appreciate it because the text in the book doesn't make sense to me because I am not a rocket scientist! Please keep up the good work and I'll be sure to remember you when I need assistance in the real world.

  • @pink_sails9226
    @pink_sails92266 жыл бұрын

    This was so helpful. Thank you so much!

  • @musankosi7616
    @musankosi76168 жыл бұрын

    thank you guy i like your vids you are so clear and that motivation at the beginning Awesome!!!

  • @erwinjedracho640
    @erwinjedracho6406 жыл бұрын

    thanks for making known the use of this topic. I fiound it hard to grasp the concept because i didnt see the use of it until ive watched this

  • @BudskiiHD
    @BudskiiHD7 жыл бұрын

    Really good stat videos, thank you!!

  • @ksadnfkjhsdnfnfd2342
    @ksadnfkjhsdnfnfd234210 жыл бұрын

    This video was the best explanation I ever had!

  • @OwenCarterDaHotTamale
    @OwenCarterDaHotTamale11 жыл бұрын

    Good video. Such a great explaination of everything.

  • @PS-db8td
    @PS-db8td4 жыл бұрын

    Brandon, thank you so much for making these awesome videos! Really really appreciate your help! This has made statistics like a cake walk. I have 1 question: In this video, around the end (19:05 mins to 19:28 mins), where you mentioned that there will be another video on Conditional Probability. I tried to look for that in all the playlists but could not find it. I very much appreciate if I could be directed to that video, if it exists. Thanks!

  • @daudabidi
    @daudabidi9 жыл бұрын

    Dear Sir, Greetings, I am unable to find the video about Conditional Probabilities that you mention based on same table that you mention at the end of the video

  • @joshuafancher3111
    @joshuafancher31116 жыл бұрын

    Excellent tutorials! Please share your knowledge regarding Bayes Theorem and conditional probability.

  • @Seanosphere
    @Seanosphere7 жыл бұрын

    Great video! Thank you!

  • @miteshyelke4454
    @miteshyelke44543 жыл бұрын

    thank you, Brandon !!!!!

  • @JessicaSalsbury
    @JessicaSalsbury11 жыл бұрын

    Thanks - I'm taking statistics as part of my MBA program and my undergrad was in theatre, so I've had some catching up to do. Thanks!

  • @aniruddhashinde1774
    @aniruddhashinde17743 жыл бұрын

    Hello Brandon, loving the videos so far! However, I can't find the follow up video regarding conditional probabilities as promised in this video. Would you please make it?

  • @LGTVBA33
    @LGTVBA338 жыл бұрын

    hey brandon, did you upload the video you mentioned on conditional prob??

  • @seanhuang8800
    @seanhuang88008 жыл бұрын

    very easy to understand with graphic information

  • @BrandonFoltz

    @BrandonFoltz

    8 жыл бұрын

    +Sean HUANG Thanks! I try to make things visual since that is how I learn best.

  • @srijanagrawal4591
    @srijanagrawal45919 жыл бұрын

    thanks a lot brandon!!

  • @magictaylor7544
    @magictaylor75446 жыл бұрын

    Such an awesome intro

  • @norahsalman4988
    @norahsalman49888 жыл бұрын

    Thank you this is very helpful

  • @azmeerm
    @azmeerm11 жыл бұрын

    thanks for excellent explanation, I cant find the second (or next) video. How about an index?

  • @josiahzhou6382
    @josiahzhou63829 жыл бұрын

    i like this video thank you so much.

  • @nemanjastojanovic2876
    @nemanjastojanovic287610 жыл бұрын

    good job man

  • @velvetthai1347
    @velvetthai13477 жыл бұрын

    the video is really helpful. and it support me a lot as beginner in STAT. I am still wondering 1 things. How to calculate to have 65 in Apple loss, and 54 in no loss in apple, do we need to apply formula? would you mind to tell us too?

  • @faezehdoudman6013

    @faezehdoudman6013

    3 жыл бұрын

    I also have the same problem?!?

  • @agustinblacker1324
    @agustinblacker13246 жыл бұрын

    Hi! Great video! Really helpful! one question: how do you usually get the data to define the intersections (65,54,55,75). If I wanted to build this kind of chart, how do I have to get those kind of numbers (WHICH INFO DO YOU USE FOR IT)?

  • @agustinblacker1324

    @agustinblacker1324

    6 жыл бұрын

    no idea?

  • @akhachatryan9131

    @akhachatryan9131

    4 жыл бұрын

    Agustin Blacker yes, I am interested of the same question. So did you get answer?

  • @bijoudeaux1
    @bijoudeaux111 жыл бұрын

    Hi, well done vid. I esp agree with the comments about the pep talk and visuals. However, I searched for the follow up vid on 'conditional probability' and could not find it? :( Is it there?

  • @alanoodyassin3176
    @alanoodyassin31765 жыл бұрын

    you're great

  • @TheHendo112
    @TheHendo11210 жыл бұрын

    Do you have a follow on vide on conditional probabilities? I can't seem to find it. Thanks!

  • @ms.cordero2784
    @ms.cordero27849 жыл бұрын

    Thank you for the videos and the words of encouragement. I've been looking for the continuation to the Joint and Marginal Probabilities video, can't seem to locate it. Could you kindly post the link. Just want to commend you for taking the time to post the videos, I am truly struggling in the class.

  • @garf5717

    @garf5717

    6 жыл бұрын

    hey, you can calculate the conditional probability simply by dividing the joint probability by the marginal probability of the condition that has already occured. For example: (assuming that G and A are not independent events!) if you want to know chance (=probability) of GE no loss given that Apple has no loss, or "P(G given A)". (1) you find the joint probability of both GE and Apple showing no loss, or "P(G intersect A)". (2) you find the marginal probability of Apple no loss, or "P(A)". (3) You divide (1) by (2). In other words, P(G given A) = P (G intersect A) / P(A). Hope this Helps !

  • @farahpangestuty3929
    @farahpangestuty39298 жыл бұрын

    Thanks very much for making the video. It is great. Just a small correction in your slide one ".... you are a financial analyst... " but on the slide it is written "analysis"

  • @prabhudaskamath1353
    @prabhudaskamath13534 жыл бұрын

    Thank you..

  • @panchishah7027
    @panchishah70275 жыл бұрын

    Please can you link the exact next video for this topic?

  • @redwan4829
    @redwan482911 жыл бұрын

    I was not able to find the next video!

  • @nishapersad
    @nishapersad10 жыл бұрын

    Do you have any videos explaining what the meaning of EPPI, EVPI, EPSI, and EVSI mean?

  • @emelianoor7143
    @emelianoor71437 жыл бұрын

    You haven't made a part 2 :(

  • @innakorzhovska9486
    @innakorzhovska94865 жыл бұрын

    Thanks for the video, but it seem not to have a continuation

  • @redwan4829
    @redwan482911 жыл бұрын

    I watched this clip however i was not able to find the next video "conditional probability". I went to the website but still no luck. please advise..

  • @bijoudeaux1
    @bijoudeaux111 жыл бұрын

    Hi, I have a question and I would really like if you can answer. I have searched other youtube vids and also google but I am left even more confused. 'Determine prob. that a purchase is made by cash or cheque given given customer paid 30-100 in clothes'. I get confused because OR means addition rule but the 'given' denotes that this is a conditional prob.. But the conditional rule uses multiplication rule for multiplication rule used the word 'AND'. I am stuck trying to work out this qstn. Btw

  • @caronkanareck6250
    @caronkanareck62507 жыл бұрын

    hi thanks for this. very helpful but now how do I find the next video ??

  • @VishalSinghVP

    @VishalSinghVP

    6 жыл бұрын

    yes where is next video

  • @funnyvideobymonster2795
    @funnyvideobymonster27956 жыл бұрын

    @BrandonFoltz can you make a video on Joint Probability Distributions and Random Samples.

  • @funnyvideobymonster2795

    @funnyvideobymonster2795

    6 жыл бұрын

    is that a yes! sir?

  • @visalrajk
    @visalrajk10 жыл бұрын

    Dear Sir, I am also unable to find the video about Conditional Probabilities in the playlist

  • @The2011nyc
    @The2011nyc6 жыл бұрын

    U the best

  • @abhinavsharma1976
    @abhinavsharma19763 жыл бұрын

    where can i find the part 2 to this video?

  • @bijoudeaux1
    @bijoudeaux111 жыл бұрын

    It's not in the playlist. I searched for it in all your videos and could not find it. :|

  • @rqvaliente
    @rqvaliente9 жыл бұрын

    Just made my homework a breeze!

  • @alirezafarzam9299
    @alirezafarzam92994 жыл бұрын

    I can't find the upcoming video to this

  • @chhuonsoklang
    @chhuonsoklang7 жыл бұрын

    I still don't understand why G intersects A equal 75?

  • @nucleartide
    @nucleartide11 жыл бұрын

    I hit a temporary rough patch! :D

  • @xueyonglin2749
    @xueyonglin27497 жыл бұрын

    hi

  • @tugvesancak
    @tugvesancak10 жыл бұрын

    the intro too long, so i gave u a thumbs down :(( just kidding :D

  • @xueyonglin2749
    @xueyonglin27497 жыл бұрын

    hi