Statistics 101: Joint and Marginal Probabilities
Statistics 101: Joint and Marginal Probabilities
In this video we look at the individual and joint behavior of two stocks: General Electric (GE) and Apple (APPL). More specifically, we analyze the daily returns for the entire 2012 trading year for these two stocks looking at the probability they suffer a tandem loss, tandem gain, or diverge. This leads to the construction of a joint and marginal probability table.
Keep in mind that 1) this video is not about finance per se and 2) it is not a time-series analysis. I am just using financial data to demonstrate the concept. Enjoy!
My playlist table of contents, Video Companion Guide PDF documents, and file downloads can be found on my website: www.bcfoltz.com
Пікірлер: 82
Love the words of encouragement at the begining
@ConcettaReda
7 жыл бұрын
I also appreciated that! I have barely any statistical background. My work is paying for me to take some additional courses. However, as a 24 y/o college grad it's been disheartening to go back to school and find things so complicated!
@troffhudson
7 жыл бұрын
Same.
I needed those words of encouragement so bad. I got tears in my eyes. My spirit has sort of been crushed because STATS is so hard for me. Thank you so much.
Oh thank you so much for the kind words! But the real commendation goes to you for making the effort to learn and improve as you see fit (I really mean that!). Hopefully you can find other videos helpful as well. All the best, B.
Haha glad you liked it! We often underestimate how much we can use a little pep talk from those around us. I try to put supportive people around me who have my best interests at heart. Thanks for the tip on the use of color. I try to think how it will help understanding so I am glad you found it helpful. Take care! - B
Thank you very much for taking the time to create these videos, I love how you say that you and everyone has faith in us, it is very uplifting to hearing those words when sometimes we don't hear it from loved ones. Thank you and good job, keep posting more videos pleasssseeee :D
Your honest approach of making these videos only to help others is much appreciated Brandon...Thank you from my heart
Hi Azmeer! Thank you for your comment. All of my vids are organized into playlists which you can access on my channel homepage. KZread does a bad job of letting you know the video you are watching is part of a playlist. :(
Thank you Brandon Foltz you save me from a lot of headaches
Thank you so much for your first comment in this video. I really, really needed to hear this! I am a junior math major and I have been feeling quite blah! Again, thanks!!!
That was an unexpected but definitely welcome pep talk! Love the video. The use of color definitely helped me understand that I was overthinking my problem set. Keep it up! :)
Thanks Brandon for adding your Stats video on an open source platform. I found them very helpful and much better than many paid platforms
Guy, this video is amazing. It's so clear. Congratulations! Thumbs up for you! :)
Thank you so much for explaining joint probability, to be able to learn about this subject with such a caring teacher is a blessing. Thanks.
Very good video explaining the basics of Joint and Marginal Probabilities!!! Thanks Brandon!
I really, really needed to hear your first comment today. Thank you sooo much for saying just the right thing. I have been struggling so much and there's so much riding on me doing exceptionally well in my stats course.
Really enjoyed your video on "Joint and Marginal Probabilities" - very well explained and easy to understand - thanks. Towards the end of the video it makes mention of a follow on video about conditional probabilities. I've looked high and low for this follow on but can't seem to find it. Would it possible to let me know which video this is - a link would be great. Many thanks and keep on posting your great tutorials.
Hi, I;m following the Introduction to Probability playlist. At the end of the video you said that we were going to learn more about conditional probabilities based on this same problem (GE and Apple), but the next video didn't cover that subject. Thanks for the awesome lectures!
@garf5717
6 жыл бұрын
hey, you can calculate the conditional probability simply by dividing the joint probability by the marginal probability of the condition that has already occured. For example: (assuming that G and A are not independent events!) if you want to know chance (=probability) of GE no loss given that Apple has no loss, or "P(G given A)". (1) you find the joint probability of both GE and Apple showing no loss, or "P(G intersect A)". (2) you find the marginal probability of Apple no loss, or "P(A)". (3) You divide (1) by (2). In other words, P(G given A) = P (G intersect A) / P(A). Hope this Helps !
hey brandon thanks alot for encouraging me. I am struggling in this topic because of the lack of explanation. You explained it very well
Hey that's ok though! Learning should be challenging. I am sure you will do just fine. Thanks for the comment and hang in there. :) All the best, B.
Thank you Brandon for your motivational explanation marginal and joint p's. You sounded crystal clear.
Great video! Wonderful, really! I even like the music. One suggestion would be to link to the next sequence somewhere in the video or in the description. As of now, the auto-play is a different channel and I'm having trouble finding the video on conditional probability after having gone to your channel. I'll find it eventually, no worries, but that might be something to consider. Thanks for your service! This helped me!
love your introduction. Yes we can!!!
Thanks for the positive encouragement and for a well-explained video with the colored presentation. As a visual learner I really appreciate it because the text in the book doesn't make sense to me because I am not a rocket scientist! Please keep up the good work and I'll be sure to remember you when I need assistance in the real world.
This was so helpful. Thank you so much!
thank you guy i like your vids you are so clear and that motivation at the beginning Awesome!!!
thanks for making known the use of this topic. I fiound it hard to grasp the concept because i didnt see the use of it until ive watched this
Really good stat videos, thank you!!
This video was the best explanation I ever had!
Good video. Such a great explaination of everything.
Brandon, thank you so much for making these awesome videos! Really really appreciate your help! This has made statistics like a cake walk. I have 1 question: In this video, around the end (19:05 mins to 19:28 mins), where you mentioned that there will be another video on Conditional Probability. I tried to look for that in all the playlists but could not find it. I very much appreciate if I could be directed to that video, if it exists. Thanks!
Dear Sir, Greetings, I am unable to find the video about Conditional Probabilities that you mention based on same table that you mention at the end of the video
Excellent tutorials! Please share your knowledge regarding Bayes Theorem and conditional probability.
Great video! Thank you!
thank you, Brandon !!!!!
Thanks - I'm taking statistics as part of my MBA program and my undergrad was in theatre, so I've had some catching up to do. Thanks!
Hello Brandon, loving the videos so far! However, I can't find the follow up video regarding conditional probabilities as promised in this video. Would you please make it?
hey brandon, did you upload the video you mentioned on conditional prob??
very easy to understand with graphic information
@BrandonFoltz
8 жыл бұрын
+Sean HUANG Thanks! I try to make things visual since that is how I learn best.
thanks a lot brandon!!
Such an awesome intro
Thank you this is very helpful
thanks for excellent explanation, I cant find the second (or next) video. How about an index?
i like this video thank you so much.
good job man
the video is really helpful. and it support me a lot as beginner in STAT. I am still wondering 1 things. How to calculate to have 65 in Apple loss, and 54 in no loss in apple, do we need to apply formula? would you mind to tell us too?
@faezehdoudman6013
3 жыл бұрын
I also have the same problem?!?
Hi! Great video! Really helpful! one question: how do you usually get the data to define the intersections (65,54,55,75). If I wanted to build this kind of chart, how do I have to get those kind of numbers (WHICH INFO DO YOU USE FOR IT)?
@agustinblacker1324
6 жыл бұрын
no idea?
@akhachatryan9131
4 жыл бұрын
Agustin Blacker yes, I am interested of the same question. So did you get answer?
Hi, well done vid. I esp agree with the comments about the pep talk and visuals. However, I searched for the follow up vid on 'conditional probability' and could not find it? :( Is it there?
you're great
Do you have a follow on vide on conditional probabilities? I can't seem to find it. Thanks!
Thank you for the videos and the words of encouragement. I've been looking for the continuation to the Joint and Marginal Probabilities video, can't seem to locate it. Could you kindly post the link. Just want to commend you for taking the time to post the videos, I am truly struggling in the class.
@garf5717
6 жыл бұрын
hey, you can calculate the conditional probability simply by dividing the joint probability by the marginal probability of the condition that has already occured. For example: (assuming that G and A are not independent events!) if you want to know chance (=probability) of GE no loss given that Apple has no loss, or "P(G given A)". (1) you find the joint probability of both GE and Apple showing no loss, or "P(G intersect A)". (2) you find the marginal probability of Apple no loss, or "P(A)". (3) You divide (1) by (2). In other words, P(G given A) = P (G intersect A) / P(A). Hope this Helps !
Thanks very much for making the video. It is great. Just a small correction in your slide one ".... you are a financial analyst... " but on the slide it is written "analysis"
Thank you..
Please can you link the exact next video for this topic?
I was not able to find the next video!
Do you have any videos explaining what the meaning of EPPI, EVPI, EPSI, and EVSI mean?
You haven't made a part 2 :(
Thanks for the video, but it seem not to have a continuation
I watched this clip however i was not able to find the next video "conditional probability". I went to the website but still no luck. please advise..
Hi, I have a question and I would really like if you can answer. I have searched other youtube vids and also google but I am left even more confused. 'Determine prob. that a purchase is made by cash or cheque given given customer paid 30-100 in clothes'. I get confused because OR means addition rule but the 'given' denotes that this is a conditional prob.. But the conditional rule uses multiplication rule for multiplication rule used the word 'AND'. I am stuck trying to work out this qstn. Btw
hi thanks for this. very helpful but now how do I find the next video ??
@VishalSinghVP
6 жыл бұрын
yes where is next video
@BrandonFoltz can you make a video on Joint Probability Distributions and Random Samples.
@funnyvideobymonster2795
6 жыл бұрын
is that a yes! sir?
Dear Sir, I am also unable to find the video about Conditional Probabilities in the playlist
U the best
where can i find the part 2 to this video?
It's not in the playlist. I searched for it in all your videos and could not find it. :|
Just made my homework a breeze!
I can't find the upcoming video to this
I still don't understand why G intersects A equal 75?
I hit a temporary rough patch! :D
hi
the intro too long, so i gave u a thumbs down :(( just kidding :D
hi