Stark reality of India’s job crisis, why it’s hit women more: Off the Cuff with Mahesh Vyas, of CMIE
#ThePrintOTC
In conversation with ThePrint Editor-In-Chief Shekhar Gupta & Senior Associate Editor Manasi Phadke at Off The Cuff, MD & CEO of Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy Pvt Ltd., Mahesh Vyas talks about the state of the Indian economy, falling rupee, what key indicators say about the post-Covid recovery, unemployment crisis, consumer sentiment, and the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
00:00-02:16 What does CMIE do?
02:16-04:43 What is the concept of employment?
04:43-06:28 Employment data compilation
06:28-10:06 Trends in employment data
10:06-14:00 High unemployment rates in women
14:00-17:43 India's labour force participation rate
17:43- 22:59 Start-ups & recovery in SME sector
23:00-28:11 Manufacturing hopes & PLI scheme
28:11-31:57 Credibility, criticism of CMIE data
32:00-37:35 Agnipath scheme & human resource issue
37:35-40:29 CMIE research methodology
40:29-45:23 RBI rate hikes & consequences
45:23- till end: Resignation & jobless youth
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Пікірлер: 122
Excellent discussions! Among the many journalists in India, Shekhar Gupta and his team stand out! Perfectly nuanced and balanced!
@ThePrintIndia
2 жыл бұрын
Hi Aditya, thanks for your feedback
@adityabatman26
2 жыл бұрын
@@ThePrintIndia One of the few publications who demonstrate how once disagree and yet not be rude and uncouth with it. That makes a lot of difference in riling up emotions on the opposite side of the political spectrum.
@jigsaw2281
2 жыл бұрын
@@ThePrintIndia yes he is right total states, centre jobs can be given to 1 crore people ...It will be very good for country and economy
Nice conversation...able to get the idea of unemployment in India and different facets of Indian economy...Thank you so much sir...keep it up 👍
@ThePrintIndia
2 жыл бұрын
Hi Vikash, thanks for your feedback.
Amazing conversation. Mahesh was able to pull the drool out of the boring data points . You know a conversation is intellectual when there is no nonsense and non sensational things being spoken.
@ThePrintIndia
2 жыл бұрын
Hi, we appreciate you writing in.
being a recruiter, its my observation that 20 to 24 employment rate is falling due to the poor employable education they are receiving. its the failure of education not of industry. To add to the woes, the education system is giving high arrogance to youngsters with very low patience levels and a high desire for quick success.
@TheZenith790
2 жыл бұрын
are u out of your mind even the grads from so called good colleges are finding it hard to get decent jobs so what arrogance u are talking about the youngsters are going thru a lot just that old farts like u are clueless, instead of questioning the govt blame it on everything
@TheZenith790
2 жыл бұрын
youngsters are even ready to do menial jobs what else do u expect from them
@thyagarajanriyer3284
2 жыл бұрын
seeing the so called leaders, IAS/IPS officers, clerks in Govt etc. loot everyday, seeing the loot being shown in OTT everyday, seeing the cozy relationships between corporates and politicians everyday, how can a young fellow have patience and perseverence. for him the sources of lesson are these people. for him they are the examples of how to be successful. We voters only support looters. That's why our own brothers, sisters and sons do not have any patience and losing faith in hardwork. The change of mindset should begin with people in the 30-60 age group, who are supposed to lead by example.
@AbhinavKumar-mv5iw
2 жыл бұрын
What a load of crap. I know how companies look for superman right off the graduation with peanut entry-level salaries and then they rant about how recent graduates are unemployable. If you want high quality experienced and skilled talent, shell out more money, period. That's what top product based companies do. They never complain about graduates lacking skills.
@thyagarajanriyer3284
2 жыл бұрын
@@AbhinavKumar-mv5iw in order to shell out more money, the value addition by the company should be high. Product companies add much more value as compared to service companies or industrial outfits. Product companies require such people whose intelligence and ownership level needs to be high. On the contrary, service companies & low tech industries run on SOP compliance. Scope for innovation is low. That's the reason why it does not make business sense for the service companies or low tech industries to pay high. There is simply no gain for them to keep over qualified people. The reason business processes are outsourced to a low wage country like India is because such ops do not add much value and they can be done by teams with low intelligence at mass scale using SOPs. Unless india elevates its quality of education at mass scale, we will not be able to innovate at mass scale despite having high potential. Even for hitech manufacturing activity like China, our education quality is grossly inadequate. Mind you...Vietnam and Taiwan are ramping up education levels and hitech industry base right under our nose at present. Just compare the GDP per capita of Vietnam, Taiwan and india for last 15 years. Remember, india and Vietnam GDP per capita was same in 2001. They were ahead of us in 2014 by 30%, now they are ahead by 70%. Vietnam is just 1 example. Therefore, till such time we fail our education, we will be dominated by numerous powers like Germany, japan, south korea, Israel etc and not just USA or China. India imports from China : FY'15 (Pre- Make in India) : $60bn p.a FY'19 (pre-Atmanirbhar) : $70bn p.a FY'22 : $94bn p.a Why are we so dependent on China, despite spending $5-10bn per annum in PLI grants to corporates? Why Make in India is failing since 7 years? The answer is very simple : we do not invest in high quality education. 😠😠 Therefore, high value add manufacturing or service sector will never grow fast in india. 😠😠 Therefore, our make in India will also be slow mover.... 😠😠 As a result, whatever 1 lakh cream talent we produce every year will migrate to USA, Europe and add value to the high value add industry in those economies. 😠😠😠 We educated people need to ask our corrupt Fekus and Pappus, why are you not investing in high quality education, deliberately?😠😠😠😠 🙏 Satyamev Jayate
Thank you Print for bringing in such good stuff . You know it is good stuff when there are only 192 likes for such a gem video .
Also i recently seen women discriminated in interviews because of misogyny where they are doubted of becoming pregnant and leaving for maternity leave. Girls are often doubted of relocation, travelling far away and face difficulties at home also. And i think companies require to create small town oppurtunities.
@puranjaysingh1571
2 жыл бұрын
this is usually what happens when companies have shrinking profits and poor future earnings outlook. They discriminate against women since they feel the maternity leave will eat into their already meager profits. Not a good trend
the biggest problem is the quality of education, an ordinary lack skills, even govt want people with general awareness, private companies assume high awareness plus additional skill to even train for new jobs
@anurag321_
2 жыл бұрын
Agree 💯
@thyagarajanriyer3284
2 жыл бұрын
Indian politicians do not want "thinking people" at mass scale. They want only such people whose independent thinking ability could be broken down by repetitive brainwashing. 😠😠 A person who is doing 'Rote learning'..his brain heats up easily if he thinks a lot as an adult. Such brains therefore can be easily brainwashed through repeatedly telling lies through godi media and WhatsApp universities. 😠😠 Even for selling a product through repetitive Ads, 'thinking population' are a burden to companies. Therefore it is a worldwide strategy of politicians not to give high quality education at mass scale. 😠😠😠 It is a matter of life and death for them. If they lose control over the brains of crores of voters what will happen to them and their children's political future?🤔🤔 Look at gulf & African countries..look at pakistan, Bangladesh..same way look at Govt school in india and 90% of private schools. A child cannot survive without 'mugging'. If a child asks lot of doubts, then the teachers complain to parents that he/she is disturbing the class and being oversmart. Even other children in the class shout and scream at a child which asks lot of doubts. That's because they learn from teachers' attitude towards curious children. The whole dirty game starts with the politicians obsession to control the brains of voters 😠😠😠
Large factories with large-scale employment creation will have to be in labour intensive sectors, eg, textiles. Since demand in this sector is necessarily seasonal, atleast to some extent, labour laws have to allow for flexible employment. Examples of Mexico and perhaps also Bangladesh. We have a long way to go to come around to that.
@mdtazuddinahamed7948
2 жыл бұрын
ঢ়যড
@thyagarajanriyer3284
2 жыл бұрын
Bangladesh GDP per capita was 40% less than India in 2014. Today they are 5% ahead of India. They are pulling away all labour intensive export markets from india systematically. 😠😠😠 We are only creating massive publicity in the name of make in India etc. India imports from China in 2015 was $60bn (pre-make in india). In 2019 (pre-Atmanirbhar) it was $70bn. In 2022 it is $94bn. 🤣🤣 PR activity, Man ki baat etc. does not generate employment. Only performance gives employment. 🤣🤣🤣 Hope india wakes up and throws Fekus and Pappus out soon 🤣🤣
I think the labor employability should be discussed for agriculture and non agriculture sectors separately. Else we would not have meaningful discussion on data.
Very informative and educative. Great to have had this opportunity to listen to Mahesh Vyas 👍🏼👍🏼
@ThePrintIndia
2 жыл бұрын
Hi Priti, we appreciate you writing in with your feedback.
I have been hearing this sorts of discussions for more than four plus decades but only discussions are still going without solutions.
Not Just Job's But Quality Of Jobs Matter Most. Majority People Earn Below 25K In Delhi, Mumbai. It's very less. Mehengai bahut hai . 😕
"U shaped" female labor force participation is a reality which needs to be considered. In an agrarian economy women tend to participate more due to abject poverty. As there are more manufacturing jobs- women, or their husbands, don't prefer women to work in a factory when they are able to make ends meet with the man earning. Finally in a service based economy- like in big cities- women participation goes up due to favorable workplace condition. So when we talk about X million jobs lost- we also need to tell which sector are we talking about. If it is just agriculture labor jobs which are lost by women- then it is not such a bad sign.
Shekarji seems a bit lost when the topic is not politics :) All the same a wonderful guest you invited and thank you for that
@ThePrintIndia
2 жыл бұрын
Hi Pramod, thanks for writing in.
@Subhashish69
2 жыл бұрын
Bang on :)
This guy arm chair expert. He says build large factories. What does that mean? Who is buying, resources, capital, price etc
@thyagarajanriyer3284
2 жыл бұрын
the answer lies in 1991-92...all of a sudden a country which was bankrupt and IMF stepped in to bail out...a country which had the 'Srilanka' moment saw itself being revived like a tiger. we saw 8% CAGR economic growth rate between 1991-2014. The answer lies in the smart decisions made during this period by 3 PMs..Narasimha Rao, Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Dr. Manmohan Singh. Indian working class income grew multifold during this period and we are all surviving the current difficult times because of the great work done by these 3 PMs.
Really alarming numbers but kudos to print and sg for awaring us of this issue Sg is role model for all aspiring journalist 👍
@ThePrintIndia
2 жыл бұрын
Hi Steve, thanks for your feedback.
That's actually not true,ppl simply don't give up looking for jobs,coz becoz u need money to survive,u can't afford that luxury
Why does CMIE use the working age group from 15 years and more??? As we are pushing for more education they should start at least from 18 years.
1. What are Pak and Bangladesh doing better than India , in terms security / mobility for Women as their Women Participation rate is much higher than us. All three have similar demographics and infra issues 2. What policy changes has Vietnam done except for subsidizing Industry - which India is following , as it has now become hub for Electronics on China plus 1 move of the Global Majors. Are we missing this massive opportunity 3. In India , huge Industrialization is happening in Jammu , even the state has run out land for Industry, mainly due to GST Refund incentive along with host of others. 4. Same thing happened when Industrialization took place in hill states of HP , Assam and UK - initiated by Sh Atal.
Police , Force, Defence - Ye Naukri Jaan Ka Sauda Hai. 😐
No1 cares about the job crisis ; only when it will cause real social disturbance is when the problem will begin
The impact of Congress's "Micro economies" idea. Seriously, if UPA had build infrastructure to support supply chain management we could have already had many factories that could employee many people. UPA still thinks that local provision stores is much better than industrialising Bharat
@desigulal
2 жыл бұрын
NDA in power for 15 out of last 30 yrs.
@srinisbir8781
2 жыл бұрын
@@desigulal Remaining 15 by Congress-led UPA. Don't shirk your responsibilites.
Really nice content as always Shekharji! But I feel there are several gaps in the data shared and opinions presented. Firstly the numbers are at 100K ft level. Employment numbers at the national level for a country of 1.4B is a serious crime. Like you pointed out its important to note the numbers in north/south/east/west or at best state level given macro economics tie with socio-structural ecosystems Secondly, I am not sure we can compare numbers of India with Ban/Pak. Are the methodologies used same? Poor countries tend to have higher net participation (kind of similar to GDP growth% in EM) , same could be true in Indian states. What are the conditions that differ b/w India and these countries that could cause higher women employment? Thirdly, one cannot broadly compare men vs women employability because it depends on the education/skill profile and job sector they go into. For example, it was pointed out that women graduates are ample but not in jobs but that could be due to different sectors they go into predominantly. We know for sure there are far less STEM female graduates than men (this is world over). Where as there are certain sectors like hospitality, Human capital, etc. where women dominate at large and there are seasonal/black swan events like pandemic that had a severe impact Fourthly, just being graduate is not enough, employability is big concern. It is severely hard to hire in India specially in the high skill jobs, research reveals almost 45% of Eng/Tech graduates are unemployable. In this sector we practically have enormous amount of vacancies but very little are employable. I wish we had more slices and cuts of the data(across regions/states/job sectors/education profiles/skills demand-supply) because India is like Europe and middle-east put together. Talking about a gross number will be vague at best
Thank you for this interview.
Women employment in India so low. I have seen in China and Vietnam looks very high, adding in a big way to the country's growth and these two countries are most competitive in manufacturing, agriculture..
Can you also take into consideration that 1 in 4 MBA, 1 in 5 engineers and 1 in 10 graduate are employable, this reflects a much deeper problem that current economic condition, the old and irrelevant education which doesn't Carter to market need
Mahesh Vyas 👍👍
Have kV subramanian and him together,he has made good points about how flawed CMIE data is,other than what their work with company balance sheets etc is!!
@samnote2459
2 жыл бұрын
Exactly my thought.. would be good to have the two have a chat together
@libshastra
2 жыл бұрын
That would be an interesting idea. I wouldn't call it flawed as much as saying their data has blindspots or things that can't be explained by data alone. Similarly every analysis has blindspots that tries to account for issues with data collection (some massage the data through assumptions, for eg CMIE doesn't consider part time employment as employment, but govt surveys do - both are valid assumptions). We shouldn't really rely on one indicator or one analysis.
@mridulagrawal6687
2 жыл бұрын
@@libshastra i think I can give u a link to a paper that was written by a numbr of economists,abt CMIE data on labour force participantion, it's not just blindspots,it actually presents a totally different picture than the one on ground!!
@libshastra
2 жыл бұрын
@@mridulagrawal6687 it's the collection method that creates blindspots rather than anything else. That's why you always look at methodology first.
Great 👍 show
@ThePrintIndia
2 жыл бұрын
Hi Shivendra, thanks for your feedback.
Govt long term HR plan : govt is giving money to Skill India vendors. What about these Skill Development programme?
@thyagarajanriyer3284
2 жыл бұрын
Skill india is not a scheme...its a big scam...if you have any relative or friend as vendor in skill India, if he is close enough for you, please speak to him/her. he/she will tell you how officers from bottom to top and the vendors are minting money for doing nothing.
@lopamudraray4571
2 жыл бұрын
@@thyagarajanriyer3284 I worked in 2 projects. The vendors paid me minuscule.
@thyagarajanriyer3284
2 жыл бұрын
@@lopamudraray4571 you mean you worked under a vendor who took contract from Govt right?
Exhilarating talk; sharp questions and pointed answers.
@ThePrintIndia
2 жыл бұрын
Hi Minhaj, glad for your response
wow... SG showed his SECULAR face again with the last observation that unemployed are chopping heads. But Sir, please also enlighten us why only unemployed from a particular community are beheading for religious purposes while other community guys are damaging properties for better employment ?
@puranjaysingh1571
2 жыл бұрын
you're seeing ghosts where none exist
I heard the interview fully twice till yet... Simply superb... This brilliant Sir has clear and vivid answer to each and every questions asked except for the ones for which he says he is not sure.. The magnificent manner in which his agency collects and processes data deserves sincere appreciation.. He is really a visionary man... But It is sad to hear from him that the Indian government is currently unable to hire people for work due to financial crunch.. I am from Kerala.. I foresee a revolution going to take place here in the internet job sector.. This is because the central govt has decided to provide ISP license and other operational permissions to K-FON, a state govt. entity for internet operation in Kerala... If properly utilised, in this internet-driven era, it will create more jobs for the youth, who as per ur assessment the most disenchanted section due to unemployment.. In Kerala, every single child has smartphone with him or her.. So if more govt. and private services are brought under internet (i mean online), and the desperate youth are trained to operate and teach the internet in a cheap way without the offer of pension, i mean by hiring the youth for temporary jobs, revolutionary changes and miracles can be brought in as far as the economy of the state is concerned.. Internet and mechanisation, thus will create more ease of doing and jobs without the addition of additional burden to the government.. Those who are getting trained can be despatched to foreign countries, especially to countries like The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia where the works of NEOM city is taking place in rapid pace as part of Prince MBS's Vision-2030 plan.. It requires intelligent manpower in large quantities.. Technologies like Artificial Intelligence, Internet of Things, Robotics, Blockchain, Metaverse etc have great and ample chances there.. (It is a futuristic city 30 times bigger than NewYork.. Renewable Energies like Wind, Solar and green Hydrogen are the only energy sources present there.... ) So our children got a bright future in KSA.. For everything to happen, what is required here is data in cheap price, i mean to train our jobless intelligent young guys.. The 5G auction should be done in such a way by the govt. that non-corrupt governments like the ones under Modiji and CMs like Pinarayi (in my knowledge), who give utmost priority to the welfare of the poor, get upper hand in the handling of data so that the most valuable thing in the 21st century, ie. data could be perfectly synthesised by non-greedy govt. men themselves and a bright future for India's all category of population could be ensured by this.. The training of intelligent people in the aforementioned technologies is the key... Also by enabling our present and next generations to handle good English, both spoken and written English, would be another vital aspect for their bright future.. They should be able to survive in any part of the world with their expertise, i mean knowhow, in English and latest Internet technologies.. A Vision-2030 like what Prince Salman has in mind should be there on the minds of Indian rulers as well.. A policy like Agnipath can be implemented in the IT sector also by the govt. in the future if the government has money crunch to employ the Indian youth in large scale for the infinite future internet-related job opportunities if it has the fear of giving pension to them.. K-FON shows that if both central and state governments work shoulder to shoulder miracles can be created and also it emphasizes the need to strengthen ties with countries like KSA which are the nations going to lead financially and in many other aspects, the 21st century world ❤️❤️❤️
Such a wholesome discussion. Thanks to The Print
Thanks!
First time I heard that someone who actually knows how f**k up our situation is as country. And yeah I belong to that Gen between 1998 and 2002. Living in One of the India's Absurd Village and Policy Makers.
Thank you for all the data 🙏 very much appreciated
Very educative .... However I'd beg to differ with the gentleman on only promoting large scale industries instead of medium scale and small scale industries....This would discourage entrepreneurship....
Sensational headline...when women can afford and luxuries of being unemployed as Mr. Mahesh himself mentions.
Wrong questions, he is a statistician, a data scientist. He can’t be expected to answer economic questions. He can show problems, not causes, forget about their solutions.
Overall, the interpretation of data and suggestion of solutions (1992 2.0) is not very insightful. The answers also show a lot of bias. CMIE is good a data collection and analysis of that should be left to others.
@sudhirnayak8086
2 жыл бұрын
@@Sachin-vr4ms when SG asks about what needs to be done, he talks about 1992 reforms. And one of them mentions 1992 2.0
SG - Sir " request for analysis of increasing problem among young couples in conceiving and rise of IVF clinics. Why we are witnessing huge issue "
@sarabjitsingh4442
2 жыл бұрын
@@indusingh2013 Thanx , We shud add stress also. This is resulting in Couples going thru the routine rather than enjoying and participating fully.
Excellent discussion.
INR touching 80 per dollar how can govt afford pension !
We need to stop interfering in industry. Regulations should be strict and sensible. But capital markets and abuse of enforcement powers needs to be checked. Politicians and bureaucrats cannot be allowed to run around harassing the public and industry while the financial markets are filled with frauds and scamsters. There should be a check and balance.
How does CMIE earn revenue?
@tarunsurana4464
2 жыл бұрын
Their database of Indian companies called “prowess” is subscription based where they charge over 1 lac rs. And they have 1000s of subscribers
The reasons could be social and "law and order".
Holi Cow, 11 crore people lost jobs in last 5 years.
Also, if the husband is working in a better job, women will be reluctant to work. This is proved also by the fact that poor states have more women working. So when woman does not want to work how, we can force them.
SG Really Nice Guest....... Keep it Up
@ThePrintIndia
2 жыл бұрын
Hi Dhansukh, thanks for your response.
Thank you for an informative video
👍👍 #ThePrint #Politicker #PureScience #CutTheClutter #GlobalPrint #ThePrintOTC #World360 #ScientiFix #CourtUncourt #NationalInterest #MindOverMatter #PurePolitics #TILWithThePrint #ThePrintKYC #Journalism #India #VandeMatarm 🇮🇳 👍👍
@ThePrintIndia
2 жыл бұрын
Hi, thanks for your feedback.
Public Finances are broken - need supporting data. The Print can do a separate CTC.
Off the cuff , you could have asked him about whereabouts of his relatives A P Shah and Susan Thomas.
My god!! Great insight!
At last Shekar corrected himself and realised its Mumbai and not Bombay any more.
The definition of a worker is based on government jobs.... That they're employed if they even work an hour a week in gurmeet departments.... Can't blame CMIE :)
@libshastra
2 жыл бұрын
They are still paid for it. In all global economies part time jobs are still considered as employed. So the Govt is not wrong in it's count.
Damn this man has reach
Excellent. Gupta ji sud do one regarding the Pak’s Mirza and expose his connections with 56 Indian Muslim MP’s and also the owner of an Indian news channell. Mirza’s word not mine.
@ThePrintIndia
2 жыл бұрын
Hi Nitish, thanks for writing in.
Is this CMIE a reliable organization. No definition of job online, no publications online? Two directors share surname? website looks shady.. something fishy here..
Nothing new or knowledgeable from this Mahesh, need more information on corruption, why unemployment, agriculture improvement or privatisation, sports improvement, etc.
reduce import tariff..like say on Chinese goods??
Sir 138 crore ki jansankhya me 70 se 80 % log yuva hai yaani lagbhag 90 crore log Kam karna cahate hai , 7 se 6 % unemployment hai, iska matlab hai keval 4.5 se 5 crore log berojgar hai, yani 66 se 70 crore logo pass rojgar hai. Is hisasab se hamari economy ki GDP china and USA Kai guna Jada honi chaiye thi. Lekin mujhe lagta hai kevel 10 se 12 crore logo ke pass hi rojgar hai, baki dependent hai yaa chotta mota bus Kam cahalo Kam karte hai. Hamare desh ki employment situation bhot kharab hai
I am curious about their funding. How do these think tanks earn?
@desigulal
2 жыл бұрын
george soros
I have no hope for india after watching this
LArge factories logic is so 90s
Mahesh is so un Indian, says I do not know when he does not know, hope the journalists learn that.
Very interesting 🤔 point of view
P V Narasimha Rao was rss member.
Push cart is not job? Chai wala not job? Plumber, carpenter not job? Please define job...
The same people who are worried about unemployment are the ones who say population growth isn't a problem anymore and we shouldn't have strong (draconian is the word for them) measures to control population. Oh now I get it..are unemployed actually are Martians!
Sekar, if you had done this interview in 91-92 Vyas would have been equally negative and only would have seen glass less than 25%. Caution is good but incorrigible pessimism.
Nothing new in the conversation as this is age old phenomenon of job scarcity. This is sort of marketing.