Hugely underrated video. People and countries who realize the implications of 100% Solar, Wind and Battery hopefully will make the right moves towards realizing it.

Amazing, this report should be sent to all politicians around the world.

@gvsubramanyam2299

3 жыл бұрын

other issues come up with which we have to live with: huge amount of solar panel waste after it's ends at the end of 25 years and again with batteries also as e waste. Prices of Lithium will go up with so much usage.

@stevetaylor2818

3 жыл бұрын

@@gvsubramanyam2299 Solar panels and batteries are now nearly 100% recyclable, and recyclable for a profit. So won't be a long term problem. And Yes, Lithium will go up and down, but upscaling of production always drives prices down, especially when adding the recycled batteries.

@gvsubramanyam2299

3 жыл бұрын

@@stevetaylor2818 Thank you Steve!

@Tony-cj6jy

3 жыл бұрын

@@gvsubramanyam2299 PV panels are already 95% recycled in Europe today, this will improve recycling becomes more interesting with scale. Lithium is very abundant material, short term price fluctuations are not to be confused with longterm effects. If price is higher consistently then it will trigger investment and increase production capacity.

@davesemmelink8964

3 жыл бұрын

Here in South Africa we have an energy shortage. Our government has wasted billions on new coal power stations and wants to build nuclear and rent fossil fuel burning floating power stations to make up the difference - idiots!

Ideally this should have 100M views.

Brilliant!

@graycrow

3 жыл бұрын

Thank you Steven for recommending this video.

@georwc08

3 жыл бұрын

Cheers. This will go viral shortly.

@chrisloveless7274

3 жыл бұрын

Steven, you are the man!!

@waples88

3 жыл бұрын

Yes, thank you Steven!

@zeipastel

3 жыл бұрын

👍

Fantastic report. If only 50% of this comes true, I'll be happy

Solving The Money Problem sent me Yall definitely earned a new sub 🙂

@FutureAZA

3 жыл бұрын

Right there with ya. Has to be a ton of us. SMR did a great job of breaking it down while leaving enough to motivate us to come see it for ourselves.

@dgjFOURlife

3 жыл бұрын

@@FutureAZA yea, "Ticker Symbol YOU" Also did a similar video like 16 hours ago. This little channel blowing up from them lol

@FutureAZA

3 жыл бұрын

@@dgjFOURlife They absolutely deserve it. This was an eye opener.

@dgjFOURlife

3 жыл бұрын

@@FutureAZA agreed

Still keep coming back for a colossal injection of hope!

I love the concept of “superpower”. I’ve been thinking about this for a while, but you’ve given me great terminology! Using it for intermittent things like synthetic fuel or CO2 capture makes a ton of sense.

I'm always AMAZED at how FEW people are interested in this information! Thanks for the information!

@davidd9316

3 жыл бұрын

None so blind . . . . .

@thefartist

2 жыл бұрын

This is not information, its just talk. Nothing backs up their numbers.

@TheWetdonkey

2 жыл бұрын

They are the only one that gets these numbers, kind of hard really trust it 100%. On their own "getting things right" page on their website they even have facts they've gotten wrong.

@gilian2587

2 жыл бұрын

This reminds me of the Scaled Agile Framework. That is not a compliment.

13:14 - yeah totally no wear and tear no degradation, no beaten out joints / bearings, no scratches on surfaces, no problems with rotor corrosion /s

@rowanbroekman3929

3 жыл бұрын

A rotor on solar? This is no nuclear lol.

@EnnairaM000

3 жыл бұрын

brotherhood of man May the Lord have mercy

@johanfredin5153

3 жыл бұрын

@@rowanbroekman3929 Solar needs to be cleaned.

@rowanbroekman3929

3 жыл бұрын

@@johanfredin5153 What do you mean? That it should rain once every couple of months?

@johanfredin5153

3 жыл бұрын

@@rowanbroekman3929 Apparently rain isn´t enough. The panels needs proper high-pressure washing sometimes.

Not a year old, but every now and then I come here, listen again and it blows my mind!

Great summary of a very complex topic. I now work for 10 years in this sector, currently as a market analyst. Still every day people supprise me in not getting this. There seems to be something in human nature that makes it very hard to understand exponential growth and it's implications, even when it happens right in front of them.

@davefroman4700

Жыл бұрын

Everything in our reality for thousands of years has been linear and localized. Everything is A B C or 1 2 3. Nothing in our environment has prepared us to think exponentially. And the human species IS a behavioral byproduct of its environment.

The storage problem is much, much bigger than you think. It is not just a matter of costs. Battery capacities are nowhere near what you would need for storage.

@lucascurtolo8710

3 жыл бұрын

Are you saying there isn't enough space to fit the batteries? If not, then it IS about costs. Just to be clear, when he talks about lithion ion batteries, he doesn't mean we should storage energy with our cellphone batteries, there are ways to scale them up to hit 1TWh+ capacity of storage...

@matthouben4242

3 жыл бұрын

@@lucascurtolo8710 1 TWh is a really a lot. You would need e.g. 10 million Telsa Model S cars for that (as this car has a battery of 100 kWh). Or around 6700 times the Hornsdale Power Reserve (150 MWh) in Australia. And then you have only 1 TWh. Lets not only talk about capacity (MWh) but also about power (MW). The batteries must not only have the capacity in MWh, but also be able to deliver MW or GW of energy at once. If a 1 GW windfarm does not deliver, the backup batteries must be able to take care of this. If your batteries have a capacity of 5 GWh (which is already far beyond what current batteries deliver), they will deplete within 5 hours.

What is the quantity of the materials which we need to implement this and after how many years do we have to restore them? What is the Recycling quote to maintain the 100% renewables? Will we have enough ressources for example, Silver, cobalt etc.. , including that also other countrys will implement this System?

@samgerland6087

3 жыл бұрын

Cobalt is not needed.

@tinogruchmann

3 жыл бұрын

@@samgerland6087 Actualy its still needed.

@samgerland6087

3 жыл бұрын

@@tinogruchmann not with 4680 cells that is already in production.

@samgerland6087

3 жыл бұрын

@@tinogruchmann and also roughly 90% of batteries is currently being recycled, probably Will grow even higher then so with expansion and research

@aclassmedicine3306

2 жыл бұрын

Yes! Recycling vs single use fossil fuels/nuclear.

AWESOME!!! Tony open my eyes several years ago and I have been a HUGE supporter of him ever since!! Adam, happy to see you have joined him!!

@kdkd693

2 жыл бұрын

Same

One of the best talks this decade.

@13:15 - This is where you lost me. And it shows you know little about actual power generation operations. Solar and wind at those scales have huge maintenance costs. Wing tips of wind generators can only operate at a certain RPM and in order for them to stay subsonic and last a full 7 years. Replacement of blades has not been incorporated into your models and I'm sure maintenance of PV cells as well. It's very labour intensive to keep the cells turrets clean and operational year round. Infrastructure of the grid is also a large confounding factor as inverter efficiency and life probably aren't factored in as well. Due to the lower efficiencies the scale of wind and solar farms would be huge to meet the demand that the current alternatives could offer. All the current limitations holding renewables back could be addressed but not in 10 years. Seeing as it takes about that long to build a power plant, I doubt you'll see this kind of innovation that soon. But who knows? People have been talking about it for decades, maybe it'll happen soon.

@philtimmons722

3 жыл бұрын

Silicon Solar PV takes little to Zero Maintenance. No moving parts and fully self-monitoring. And typically has 25 year standard commercial warranties.

@aclassmedicine3306

2 жыл бұрын

You are confused 10 years to implement is for old tech and nuclear ☢️

This research blew my mind. Market forces are going to drive the energy changes we need.

Here because of Solving the money Problem. Thanks for an insightful presentation.

Steven Mark Ryan sent me

@DigitalNomadOnFIRE

3 жыл бұрын

Me too, shame he's so wrong on this subject lol.

@andrasbiro3007

3 жыл бұрын

@@DigitalNomadOnFIRE ?

@dgjFOURlife

3 жыл бұрын

@@DigitalNomadOnFIRE trolling?

@DigitalNomadOnFIRE

3 жыл бұрын

@@dgjFOURlife Read all my comments throughout this video. The only trolls are those pushing wind and earth based solar ;) Dead ends.

@dgjFOURlife

3 жыл бұрын

@@DigitalNomadOnFIRE Alright i checked out ur comments. You are invested in Tsla though Do you have 3-5 videos or a playlist you can link below that align with your beleifs/research?

and in 20 years what % of the total electricity output will be used to recycle the toxic leftovers of these systems? There's no such thing as an externality any more, every part of the lifecycle has to be plan for in advance.

Litteral goosebumps, finally i can share a easy link with what I have been trying to inform my close ones to watch for.

@redstar151

3 жыл бұрын

Yet my close ones don't watch it. I told them they're ignorant fools and i will download this piece of history to rub some salt in their eyes in about 5-10 years. 😤

@samgerland6087

3 жыл бұрын

@@redstar151 Yeah I even forwarded this to people ( in the field of the energy grid) they are like meh idk. Ignorance is still high yet the path is so clear. Still early days. Personally buying stonks in the field and have been doing it for a while. Not financial advice ofcourse lmao 🤣

@redstar151

3 жыл бұрын

@@samgerland6087 it's crazy people respond like meh idk.. The path is very clear and peopke can make allot of money. But my guess some dont like uncertainty. I have bought stonks too 2020 11 march 440x Tesla they gonna be the leader in this new energy space but people don't realise.

@samgerland6087

3 жыл бұрын

@@redstar151 awesome mate! Yupp Tesla is really making the future right before our eyes. Aswell as some other companies within the fields of renewable, vestas, solaredge, etc Theres a few nuggets out there. But ofc Tesla is a MUSK hold until trillions of marketcap ❤️ Be safe my friend, i have been trying to inform people for many years but I think it is honestly for no reason. All ppl care about is next drink, next tinder swipe basically. But it is my "mission" to inform people, the whole world is about to be turned upside down within many fields of very important tech

@jantjarks7946

3 жыл бұрын

Our world is based in the now and some more or less get what linear growth is. But that's it basically. Even I myself struggle to understand the implications. The changes are having such a massive impact.

Excellent. One other thing you could do with "superpower" is grow food in vertical farms.

For the first time in a while I actually have hope. Thank you.

thanks for introducing this, Steven!

This video needs a wider distribution. I'll do my part.

Wow, this has been hiding from me on KZread for 2 whole months. Brilliantx3!

Wow. Just wow. This is one of the best report video I have ever seen. So interesting. Didn't knew how 20 min passed so fast. This report needs to be made reach to all the biggest companies around the World. We are so close to be sustainable.

Great presentation! Having worked in the utility wind and now solar industries, this is music to my ears--seeing fossil fuel power plants close down. We have a much cleaner future ahead of us.

I don't to be a kill joy but, copper and lithium have doubled in the last 6 months. Everyone wants an electric car or at least I do. Growing demands for these 2 elements will slow down the use for the power grid. Also, they are a limited commodity. Let's hope solar and wind can make up the expansion of new energy needed.

@MattCasters

4 ай бұрын

A few years later and the price of Lithium cratered, showing us how hard it is to bet on resource shortages in a world that lives of making money by selling the stuff.

Powerful information and presentation.

He's a marketer and as long as we're buying he's selling. Suggesting we'll build a wind, solar and batteries grid 4-5 times larger than our current grid just to match our existing grid, then build an extra 20% on top to intermittently power industry and other services. It assumes costs are exponentially lowered but how will industry lower costs with intermittent energy? It is an incredible amount of resources and land, and given the finite lifetimes of each energy component the entire grid would need to be replaced every 20 years or so. From a resource and land use standpoint alone this is not a sensible plan. It is full of wildly optimistic assumptions, and ignores anything to do with transmission, environmental impact and other complexities.

@slash196

2 жыл бұрын

The entire grid already needs to be replaced every 25 years. Fossil fuel infrastructure isn't immortal. Maintenance of the existing system is already expensive, we might as well replace it with something that works far better.

@dodiewallace41

2 жыл бұрын

@@slash196 Something that is wildly inefficient and requires 100's of times more resources per unit of power production isn't better if the goal is meeting our needs while minimizing environmental impact. Of course if the goal is adding so called renewable energy regardless of the actual effect they have that's a different story.

thank you soo much! Greetings from Austria.

Wow, a lot of hype. I'm sorry but until people address things like. What are you going to use to replace diesel fuel that powers all of the large trucks and trains and construction equipment that this country needs to run on. What energy source is going to be used to replace aviation fuel. That powers every aircraft that leaves the ground. You can't fly an airplane using batteries. Natural gas maybe, hydrogen maybe but weight is a real issue. And first have to build all new airplanes. Who pays for that? The airlines, the government. The space that is needed for the enormous wind and solar farms would be hard to grasp. And the battery banks large enough to store power for a whole city. What are the environmental implications when a whole battery bank needs to be replaced. What are you going to do with thousands if not hundreds of thousand of tons of batteries.These are important questions that need to be answered. If for no other reason, to at least see if anyone is even thinking about them. Please if you're going to make these types of projections. Also include some of the where the rubber meets the road projections. How many wind turbine are you talking about. I've heard there are already issues with what to do with all of the retired wind turbine blades. Don't get me wrong, I'm not against any of the things that were talked about. But showing just the sunny side and numbers is not the whole picture by any stretch.

@philtimmons722

3 жыл бұрын

Quick answer: Trucks run fine on Electricity. As do mining, construction, and farm equipment. Airlines have a whole other problem -- continental travel and fast-shipment may go hyperloop and leave Jets outdated. Again, all Electric.

@EnnairaM000

3 жыл бұрын

The future is not ours to see

No mention of ancillary services No statement of the technical readiness of the required systems No mention of grid forming inverters No mention of conflict minerals

Very interesting report!

The problem with all that dirt-cheap "Super Power" is that it's intermittent. Unless you use it to produce dirt-cheap green hydrogen. Now you've got seasonal storage, and Super Power becomes baseload power. You can even keep your H2 production running 24/7, never mind if some of the power is coming from H2 storage. So what happens to the U curve when you've got unlimited free fuel and unlimited long-term storage capacity?

@ericvisser1514

2 жыл бұрын

The battery component makes it NOT intermittent…..

@kenjohnson6101

2 жыл бұрын

@@ericvisser1514 ... and also not "dirt-cheap". That's the point of the U curve.

I'm sorry, but this is completely unrealistic. It only makes sense on paper and falls apart when you start thinking about the implementation specifically: area. There is only so much power a solar or wind farm can get per unit area. Solar panels obviously can't be stacked and wind mills can't obstruct each other. The upper limit isn't efficiency, its physics: there is only so much power in incident sun rays and only so much momentum in wind. You can bring down costs for those, but you still need to set them up somewhere. If the United Kingdom wanted to power itself entirely off wind it would have to cover more than the entire area of Wales. If America wanted to do solar then the equivalent of the entire state of Texas (probably more) would need to be covered with solar panels, back to back. That is to meet 100% of current demand. You are proposing FIVE TIMES MORE. Now I'm not even going to talk about the staggering quantities of rare earths you'd need for that, the insane amount of concrete to build all the facilities. To power California you'd have to cover Utah with photovoltaics. The land costs would already be through the roof, just wait for the environmental impact. So no, I cannot see this happening, unless I'm missing sth from the picture. If you don't believe me read the book "Sustainable Energy - Without the Hot Air" by David Macay, it's available for free on the web, or watch his TED talk "reality check on renewable". In short we need to cut down on consumption (far fewer cars, even electric, and planes), but also accept the fact that nuclear will have to play a big role in our grid, possibly gas as well.

I did a rough calculation and came with a rough 15% to 20% solar panel land usage in California. It is significant. I supposed, and hope that by 2030 FV will go over 50% efficiency to reduce surface occupation.

@kkarllwt

3 жыл бұрын

Put most of that into the vast deserts of Nevada

@EnnairaM000

3 жыл бұрын

Nice point

@gilian2587

2 жыл бұрын

Now run a corresponding calculation for the battery supply needed to give you 18 hours of backup energy for the whole state of California. Note that the cost of battery storage is $350/kWh.

@michaelporter6341

Жыл бұрын

@@gilian2587 maybe use plug-in electric vehicles as backup in some way!?

@gilian2587

Жыл бұрын

@@michaelporter6341 There are 14.2 million cars registered in California right now. A car battery stores around 24kWh or 24e3Wh. We can imagine for a second that these are EVs. 24e3Wh * 14.2e6 gives you 340.8 e9 Wh. Or 340.8 GWh. California uses around 259.5 TWh per year or around 711 GWh per day. If the policy is that a car is over 50% charge and the grid needs power, then the car battery fleet can supply a maximum of 170.4 GWh. If most cars are less than 50% than they'll add a draw of up to 170.4 GWh per day. So... the car fleet could supply enough juice for 5.75 hours of the average daily needed charge. Of course -- if the grid behaved this way... the wear and tear on your battery will be great enough to potentially substantially reduce the lifetime of your car battery. And you'll need a lot more storage than that to be blackout/brownout free during dunkleflaute events; which are not uncommon in the northern hemisphere in winter.

Amazing analysis. Very well laid out and simple to understand.

@johnchew503

2 жыл бұрын

A complete fantasy. Buying more coal and oil now.

It's already been 15 years since solar and wind have been installed in very large quantities and it will be another 30-40 years for the energy transition

@michelangelobuonarroti916

3 жыл бұрын

Unfamiliar with exponential growth, huh?

@kaya051285

3 жыл бұрын

@@michelangelobuonarroti916 I'm guessing you were not around in the 2000s? People back then were saying the same $hit Just look at Germany Solar PV installation it grew exponentially from 2000-2010 and people like you took out their crayons and kept extrapolating the exponentially and were claiming that it would continue and in a short few years the +50% solar install growth rate would mean 100% of Germany energy needs would be solar by 2020 And if the exponentially of +50% a year had continued indeed Germany today would be 100% solar PV powered The same argument was made for Italy and the whole of Europe and also the world Obviously the nonsense exponential expansion broke down as every exponential has to do But I guess each generation needs to learn the hard way

@TurreTuntematon

3 жыл бұрын

I guess you didn’t understand the presentation.

@ahlsn7346

3 жыл бұрын

@@TurreTuntematon the presentation was wishful thinkning.

@rowanbroekman3929

3 жыл бұрын

@@ahlsn7346 No, the presentation is worldwide, Germany invested in Solar when it was nearly 3 times as expensive as it is right now and it will be another far more cheaper within a decade. No other technology can compete, it's easy to see at least if you understand simple math.

SMR brought me here as well! Fantastic content

The question many investors ask is how much of this disruption is priced into asset values, as renewables outperform and high carbon energy assets decline in value. This trend has already been underway for a decade, we know it has further to go, the question is how much further? ~We need more focus and research to address this question

@EnnairaM000

3 жыл бұрын

Just do it

Two questions: 1. As you work to provide greater energy supply, should we not also consider what that energy is used for and what benefits are produced? How much energy do we really need? 2. Are you considering the energy costs and externalities of extraction and processing of lithium and other rare earth elements for batteries? Are those burdens imposed inequitably on populations working and living nearby?

@MassoodTavakkoli

Жыл бұрын

1. I remember a conversation I had with my uncle about internet speed, back when my dial-up speed was about 56 kbps. I told him about an article I read that predicted "Megabit-Per-Second" speeds to which he responded something along the lines: "That is overkill and a waste of resources, It'll serve almost no application. The speed today is more than enough for most use cases..." And to be fair I couldn't think of any applications to convince him of the benefits either. But today you are commenting on a video that you probably watched at 1080p60fps, I'm downloading multi-gigabyte-sized game updates and he's probably binge-watching a TV-Series on a streaming service. Although some people were probably imaginative enough to predict the use cases for gigabit-per-second internet connections, most people won't begin the creative process of developing applications, unless they're assured that the requirements are within the realm of possibilities. To answer your question (How much energy do we really need?), I think our current needs may be defined by our current constraints. Did we really "need" the internet speed we have today, or we figured that out somewhere along the way? Just one of the use cases mentioned in the video has me convinced that we "need" drastically more, drastically cheaper energy: Water Desalination. I'm sure we'll find out how much more energy we needed already as we manage to produce more energy. 2. In 1852 Aluminium was about $1200 per kg, twice the price of gold back then (which means it would have cost around $100k per kg in today's money, adjusted for inflation). The sheer demand for a commodity will eventually force the industry to find innovative, cost-effective, efficient, scalable, and sustainable ways to meet that demand. The industry is already finding more eco-friendly ways to extract lithium, for example, you can search for "lithium clay extraction". Most of today's lithium-ion batteries used for grid-scale storage (if not all) are of the "lithium iron phosphate (LFP)" kind, which contains no cobalt or any other rare earth elements. Although this video insists on not relying on future breakthroughs and technologies in its assumptions (which by the way is a very good approach) there certainly will be much more energy-efficient, cheap and eco-friendly ways to store energy. Take "Sodium-ion Batteries" as an example. It is not some hypothetical, far-fetched, experimental technology that is achieved on a limited scale in some labs and is only good for some scientific papers. CATL, the world's biggest battery manufacturer is starting to mass produce them as we speak.

Excellent. Duty lesson for all concrete heads!

Congrats 🎉. You guys called the top of the ESG mania

Wow, great ispirational video. Wondering why these economics don't make it in to mainstream media especially in countries like mine (Italy) , where we have a great solar potential. Discussions re a conversion to RE revolve around being Green and meeting the Paris cop21 targets, while we could make it for purely economic reasons

I assume this guy or group has never deeply researched how much it costs to produce an equal amount to relevant metals

Your second video I've watched this morning. Subscribed. Great presentation.

Unfortunately the reality is electricity costs for states who has the strongest “clean” energy initiative have been skyrocketing, Having affordable renewable energy is just the wet dream of green energy theorists who have no on the ground experience in the industry.

Steven Mark Ryan brought me here. Mind blowing analysis. Subscribed

I question if ultimately wind has any future at all. Solar is solid-state, wind is turbomachinery. Solar is so much cheaper to build and maintain, how can any rotating machinery compete? Regardless the missing key not mentioned is east coast to west coast ultra high voltage DC transmission lines. Moving bulk power from east to west and back is critical to converting the US to carbon-free energy. The current grid is north-south.

@andyfeimsternfei8408

3 жыл бұрын

@nick b Thats what the grid is for. Actually there's plenty of north / south capacity, east/ west is what is needed. No human alive on earth today will live long enough to see nuclear come back in this country. Plus the economics will never work in the US

@andyfeimsternfei8408

3 жыл бұрын

@nick b with today's tech, estimates run around 11.2 million acres would be required to power the US with solar. I live in NC which has 100 counties. The county I live in is 1/40 of the 11.4 million acres. 11.4 is roughly 1/3 of NC. Its a crude way of looking at it but spread that out across the country, and its not that much. Rooftops are about 1/2 that area alone. The bigger point is why would utilities look at anything but solar and batteries? They actually make their money from quarenteed rates of return on capital investments, not selling energy. The low risk, quick build time, simplicity and almost no regulatory requirements makes solar the investment they are all looking at. Its all about the money.

@andyfeimsternfei8408

3 жыл бұрын

@nick b Europe (particularly France) can do nuclear. The US is crippled from doing anything complex, technical or right. With that said, Europe and the rest of the world depends on getting their energy from other countries. Look at the US, we fight trillion dollar wars halfway around the world to secure our God given oil, haul it across the ocean, refine it in Gulf states, pipeline and truck it all around the country to burn in our ICE cars at 15% efficiency. Europe has its problems but I'm for the US cleaning up its act first and showing the rest of the world it can be done. In order for the US to do anything we must realize our limitations and the fact that our system demands a quick, low risk rate of return more than anything else. While I support nuclear, I just don't see it as a viable option in this country. We only do simple, cheap and quick anymore. Nothing beyond next year!

Great video! The RethinkX newsletter brought me here. 😊

Wonderful and inspiring job, thank you for the video.

@Peter Zeihan I like these guys assessment about our energy future much better then Zeihan assessment Wonder why Peter thinks otherwise (seems like a smart guy)? I found mention of Tony Seba on one of Peters videos and I’m so glad I investigated further. I just wish the RethinkX crew would do more popular podcasts to get the word out more! We need to keep sight of a bright future!

It appears that they gloss over the limited lifetime of current Lithium Ion batteries. They degrade as they are cycled. With current Lithium batteries, packs will probably have to be replaced every 15 years or so? Yes, he admits that the batteries are the expensive part. How long did they assume that the batteries would last?

@dejayrezme8617

3 жыл бұрын

Read the report. Does this look like they didn't do the math on that? Their solution to the battery problem is to overproduce solar panels massively because solar panels are ridiculously cheap now. So much much less batteries are needed.

@millholmehouse

3 жыл бұрын

Overproducing solar will do very little to solve the energy storage problem

Fantastic! Any breakthrough in energy has always led to massive growth..

The was an amazing video!

Excellent presentation ! Congratulations ! Humanity has to transition fast to "type 1 civilization".

@gilian2587

2 жыл бұрын

We are another 200 years away, at least, from that achievement.

Excellent

Thank you! ☀️ 😊 ☀️

Have you considered that the expansion of vertical farming will dramatically increase demand? A building with a 1 acre footprint that's 10 stories tall would need enough electricity to light 10 acres of crops, which is 50x more electricity than 1 acre of solar panels can produce. It makes no sense sq footage-wise. Nuclear is small and energy dense, great for high base load and can charge batteries. Just because something is cheaper doesn't mean it's better. Plastics and fast food are cheaper and look where they got us. "Don't tell me how to save money, I can't afford it." - Sandy Monroe

@economistfromhell4877

2 жыл бұрын

There are some implicit assumptions in here that may not hold. Do you want to explore them? Eg energy arriving from the sun per square metre that is used for crops is not necessarily the same as total energy per sq metre - and hence your arithmetic about a one square metre of panel only being able to support so many sq metres of stacked panel is ultimately true but probably not so dire as you make out? In addition given the huge excess of land for solar - 200 km radius solar farm in Australia can supply the entire worlds electricity needs - there is no necessary mismatch. Macdonals analogy doesn't hold - if the food is cheap but not nutritious then the food is expensive and hence not worth eating - that some people are fooled by their taste buds is another problem - but not a product problem. Hence therefore its always the cheapest product that is desired (but be careful define cost properly)?

Well don Adam & Tony. A fantastic explanation.

This is such a good analysis. The best I have seen on this subject. 100% correct and true.

Solar is the future

The downside of superpower is that with overcapacity of supply the earnings you will make for a given installation will drop unless you have a market for the excess energy. In the economics of supply and demand where you have too much supply the cost per unit is driven down. This means that commercial solar farms and wind turbines will drive down the cost per kWh. So, if you buy a solar array (~£4000 / $5,600) for your house and you were hoping to sell off the excess energy then you may well find that what you get back per kWh will not pay for the system within a reasonable amount of time. This is brilliant news for consumers because I can buy electricity for my car at £0.06 ($0.08) / kWh. But, as a producer I can only sell the excess from a solar array at £0.05 ($0.07) / kWh.

The battery capacity 360 TWh is absolutely infeasible with LiIon even in 100 years. There needs to be new battery technology which will be possible to scale 1000x more than LiIon. This model breaks on lack of batteries. Not to mention that in the next decade all batteries will go to cars and trucks where it is needed more than on grid.

@fotoguru222

Жыл бұрын

True about Li-Ion batteries, but the vast majority of the energy storage now and in the future will not require Lithium.

Great explanation about the impact of renewable energies on the economy and its vast benefits. Greetings from Bolivia🇧🇴

Sounds great but how do you store it? Succinct answer please. What about solar at night or wind when it’s calm?

Excellent analysis. With respect to Germany, P2G production and storage is particularly important.

I would just like to note that though the incremental, not always available, electrical supply can cost the supplier only a modest sum to service the debt to build it and provide some profit, the Transmission, Distribution and related fees which I pay for a residential home in Stamford, CT and which will presumably remain, is currently 11.14 cents/kWh or 58% of my electric bill. Add another modest 7% for the incremental electricity and its cost might be 65% of current cost. Cheaper but far from free though clearly and especially for Industrial use the distribution cost will be much lower than I pay for Residential distribution. Also my experience in Connecticut is well above national averages.

I’ve read that RAW MATERIALS to make solar panels & wind turbine will be scarce. An expert said that it’s just not feasible, to construct tens of thousands and more of these apparatus because there just won’t be enough steel/aluminum/iron etc

@dschledermann

2 жыл бұрын

Nonsense. Of the earths crust 8% is aluminium and 5% is iron. There is all the raw materials you could ever dream of. Just dig. The issue is usually some rare element that the "expert" assume to be a limiting factor, which in reality is not limiting (like cobalt is often portrayed for batteries. Except it's not. Plenty of chemestries without cobalt exist) because plenty of alternatives are possible.

@aclassmedicine3306

2 жыл бұрын

Seriously. Fe and Al are abundant and recycled!

@SamuelBlackMetalRider

2 жыл бұрын

@@aclassmedicine3306 there are other much needed materials that are not as frequent and easy to extract. Again, tens of millions of solar panels & wind turbines will be difficult to build. I hope we will make it though.

@mrRunist

2 жыл бұрын

@@dschledermann lol. "Just dig". You're displaying the same ignorant mentality that the Biden administration did saying that it's "not hard to dig a hole". Yes, it's extremely hard. Firstly, it's hard to find and explore a commercially viable deposit and secondly it's extremely hard and costly to make the mine. Sure, metals are abundant, but only abundant at vastly higher prices than they are at today.

This is so optimistic! Whoo hoo!

Wow, rarely did I see such ridiculous assumptions and time lines. Its almost dangerous, but only if you think it through. What do I mean? You bascially require exponentional growth in your base case, without mentioning that there is virtually no production in the western hemisphere. Reason is that China subsidised the domestic production so heavily, that no body else could compete. That is also the reason for your price observation - it has not much to do with innovation, as there has been virtually none. The effective performance of solar and wind is still ridiculous compared to production costs and related resources. Not to talk about maintenance (you need to replace parts, latest after 15-20 years) and then you need to get rid of these toxic components. Also interesting that you do not mention maintenance costs - it is like you produce a solar panel once, and that is it. No more replacement. No repairs. No disposal. Just like magic! Silly.

@gilian2587

2 жыл бұрын

P2G might be feasible if the cost of wind and solar comes down by another factor of 10.

Please make a video on Precision Fermentation as well ... 🙏

An amazing video.

Is biogas from plant and animal decay considered renewable energy?

Without long tearm energy storage for the winter in Hydrogen power to gas storage you are missing one of the main components needed for the energy transition.

14:27 yes, curtailing renewables is nutty (:-( Should be put to good use. 16:47 20% additional renewables investment for up to 200% superpower!

Came here from stock related whatsapp group. Adding to playlist on how to do presentation

Great presentation... I got excited just with the concept. What can we do to help move this along?

@dr-k1667

3 жыл бұрын

share this with your local and state representatives.

@km6xu

Жыл бұрын

@@dr-k1667, yes, and I ask people to not vote for those who are eager to destroy progress, as we here in the USA saw in 2017 when our national labs were largely kicked to the curb.

Hopefully these prediction become reality ... sooner than we think!

They forgot to mention how Super Grids can be combined with this. Check out the video from Real Engineering of you want to learn more

I agree Steven. And you did an amazing summary analysis on this material earlier this week (as always)

We should be building nuclear as a plan B in case the batteries can't save us. I really doubt the amount of energy storage needed can be met through lithium ion. What happens to the battery waste..?

@Fus1onplayz

3 жыл бұрын

What happens to the radioactive waste? Batteries could be recycled to huge huge percent.

@johanfredin5153

3 жыл бұрын

@@Fus1onplayz So can nuclear waste.

@aclassmedicine3306

2 жыл бұрын

Seriously? What happens to nuclear waste? Minerals can be recycled not fossil fuels or spent nuclear rods.

Thanks, ni8ce video, a lot to think about.

Negative electricity pricing is happening now in Europe. What we need is faster deployment of batteries.

The notion we can use Lithium-Ion batteries for industrial loads is misguided. From a material standpoint there isn't nearly enough Lithium, Nickel, and Cobalt.. we don't have many earths!... just one. Do some math. Lithium-ion offers very low specific energy density, only about 300 wh/Kg. You'd need over 3.6 Tons of materials just to provide One Mwh of energy. And you're talking about Terawatt hours? If you don't know what "Green Hydrogen" is, then you do a great disservice. Batteries, made from Lithium-ion, are absolutely the worst idea for industrial energy. They start loosing charge in only 4 hours, there is a Huge toxicity factor in their manufacture, and they pull from the grid in real-time. Green Hydrogen helps balance the grid (using renewables during off-peak), and provides reliable energy back to the grid during peak. Hydrogen made from renewables IS the battery. Until you actually do some calculations involving materials, and specific energy density, you haven't done your homework, and only serve to propagate propaganda in the misguided notion Lithium-ion can provide Anywhere near the storage we need on industrial scale. Use nature's battery: green hydrogen. You'll find the numbers actually work in scale up.

@andkosification

3 жыл бұрын

Completely wrong. We have more than enough Lithium, for storage you would use LiFePo batteries, all resources are abundant. "Green Hydrogen" is for most cases just a waste of energy, nothing more.

@TobyKinkaid11

3 жыл бұрын

@@andkosification We only have one earth, not six. Do a calculation as to how much Lithium, Nickel, and Cobalt needed just to do a fraction of the car fleet? Your opinion about Green Hydrogen demonstrates, you don't know anything about it. It's potent, safe, available to all people, and 100% non-toxic. If that matters to you, do some homework, if it doesn't, then you just prove my point, that Lithium ion as a world solution is impossible. We don't have the materials. Until you can face reality, you can't.

@andkosification

3 жыл бұрын

@@TobyKinkaid11 Again, there is plenty of Lithium available, we talk about storage. So no Nickel and Cobalt needed. Green Hydrogen is a waste of energy. Just do the math and you will see how much energy you will lose with hydrogen.

@TobyKinkaid11

3 жыл бұрын

@@andkosification Nonsense. No Nickel or Cobalt needed? You don't know the subject, and I'm not going to educate you.

@andkosification

3 жыл бұрын

@@TobyKinkaid11 There are different types of batteries. LiFePo is the best solution for storage, no Nickel or Cobalt needed. So what is your problem with LiFePo storage systems? (Lithium Iron Phosphate)

I'm sharing.

Lol, California has the most expensive electricity in the US

Interesting points: * Produce electricity so cheap, businesses could give away charging time to attract customers (just like they used to offer free WIFI not so long ago) * Municipalities could offer low cost energy to attract businesses. * Manufacturing could be repatriated back to the U.S.!

2 жыл бұрын

Lets not fall for the "too cheap to meter!" fallacy again. It is extremely unlikely to happen.

Basic electrodynamics show this approach does not work. The electric grid needs ancillary power provided by massive spinning turbines to maintain energy frequency. To restart the flow when the grid goes down, spinning power is needed. Not all is about price and demand. Electricity is not like selling bananas 🍌

@philtimmons722

3 жыл бұрын

Not true. Inverters make 60 HZ perfectly with Zero lead or lag. And the future is HVDC (high voltage DC), so this becomes a moot issue, anyway.

@luiscontreras7945

3 жыл бұрын

@@philtimmons722 you make 3 separate statements. If the grid goes down (from increased demand like the recent Texas ice storm) wind and solar energy, stored in bateries does not solve the problem of re-starting the grid. If the TX grid had gone down, it would have taken weeks or months to provide service. Do you have a link supporting your response? Thank you.

Much needed elegantly, not to mention easy to digest information. Thanks for all your work Alan.

Top priority use of excess free power is the remineralization of vast atmospheric Carbon pollution. 100,000m years of natural sequestration released by us in the last 100yrs needs to be sequestered artificially now by us in 10 - 15 years.

@michelangelobuonarroti916

3 жыл бұрын

Agree.

@KleineJoop

3 жыл бұрын

Using what technological proces? Please tell me. Planting (food/edible) forests is the natural version, one we should also pursue as it is a wise and profitable investment.

Fantastic presentation. Thank you!

awesome presentation, very good research material

90 hours of storage. Let me tell you this. my solar system produces 2000 kwh a year but from november till mach only 20 kwh a month. so i need much more than 90 hours. how about 4 months of power to get through the winter.

@fotoguru222

Жыл бұрын

Yes, Your stystem is undersized if you want to be off the grid. You've discovered that energy transmission (the grid) can often be more economical than energy generation and storage. Getting the mix right is important to save money.

Fantastic report and presentation. Thank you

So, this concept of "super power" is key to the kind of system that you advocate here. To actually find productive uses for all of the surplus electricity generated by the large installed capacity that you foresee is no small thing, as you admit. What is more, I'm not sure who is going to build this capacity, if the electricity being made is being sold at very low cost. That's a big benefit to energy users, especially intensive energy users like data farms and aluminum smelters. But it sounds like a very low return business for owners of solar farms or wind turbines. What is the incentive for energy producers to install that enormous capacity? Is there any example in the world today where super power is being put to productive work?

@TheMagicJIZZ

3 жыл бұрын

UAE is using solar to make aluminium

@stonechips2011

3 жыл бұрын

I think the incentive for the energy producer is that it would be cheaper to have more capacity to generate, than to pay for expensive extra battery storage.

@stevenblackthorne4790

3 жыл бұрын

@@stonechips2011 Well, no doubt. The cost of building new solar electricity generating capacity is cheaper, per kWh, than the cost of battery or other storage capacity. This ignores that fact that the first is no substitute for the latter. There is good solar electricity generation for only six hours per day, so, at a minimum, one would need battery storage for at least 18 hours per day, to supply night-time electricity needs. More generating capacity does nothing to address that need. This is before we even consider the times in which solar electricity goes to zero, for days at a time, because of cloudy weather. Again, extra solar generating capacity does nothing to meet the needs of electricity consumers during those cloudy days, unless they are providing their own storage. In addition, my question is what incentive is there for investors to build more capacity, since over-capacity in this scheme would have already driven the price of electricity to near zero during times of high production. Suppose the price of the first kWh you generate is 6 cents, but the price of the final kW you produce with the last of your capacity is 1 cent. What is your return on investment on that last kWh in that scenario? Dr. Dorr says something interesting when he says "some regions might choose to invest another 20%..." (I approximate from memory). Regions? Are "regions" installing capacity? Is this a government-owned and operated asset? Again, he's big on praising the benefits of all of this cheap "super energy" for USERS of that power, but he's silent on why anyone would be willing to spend a lot of money building capacity that would sell only a very cheap commodity. It's an important hole in his argument, and no one here is providing a meaningful answer to this objection.

@Withnail1969

2 жыл бұрын

@@TheMagicJIZZ no they arent.

@davestagner

Жыл бұрын

@@stevenblackthorne4790You’re WAY too caught up in solar intermittency. There are three main factors that cause intermittency - nighttime, seasonal variation, and weather. Nighttime and seasonal variation are 100% predictable. We know when the sun rises and sets, and the angle it is at on any given day. Cloudy days do not cause a total disruption of generation, just a reduction - if there’s enough light for you to see, there’s enough light to generate electricity. And the number, frequency, duration of cloudy days is statistically predictable. Meanwhile, batteries aren’t the only storage game in town. “Superpower” electricity can be used to synthesize green hydrogen or hydrocarbon fuels, to get through the intermittent days and long winters. Spend the summer harvesting energy for the winter.

An ice and snow storm can stop wind power and photo voltaics from producing power over a large region. Remember the power outages on the East Coast a few years ago?