Rate cut bets are back as unemployment rises | The Business | ABC News

The latest jobs numbers are another sign the Reserve Bank's attempts to slow down the economy are working. Financial markets now believe there's a strong chance of an interest rate cut in 2024 after the jobless rate rose faster than expected. It's a view also shared by most economists. St George chief economist Besa Deda expects the RBA to cut rates in November by a quarter of a percentage point. The Westpac group is forecasting three more rate cuts in 2025. In April, unemployment jumped to 4.1 per cent, up 0.2 percentage points from March and economists think it will hit 4.5 per cent by year's end. The rise was due to high migration and more people joining the workforce to look for a job, pushing up the participation rate. The underemployment rate also increased. Employees are working fewer hours compared to this time last year, despite nearly 400,000 more people in jobs. Competition for jobs is also heating up with job advertisements data from Seek showing there's been a rise in job applications. Businesses say they've had to cut back hours for casual staff and scale back hiring plans as revenue slows because people aren't dining out as much. The RBA Assistant Governor says the central bank is mindful of the pressure higher interest rates - designed to bring back inflation - are putting on households.
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