*PREACH SCOTSMAN, PREACH!!!*

@Kharmazov

6 жыл бұрын

Amen!!

I start speaking in Scottish accent after listening to Mark Blyth. Immediate charisma of intellect.

IMO, Mark Blyth is the most lucid educator on our current situation. His book on austerity opened my eyes to what and why the US and Europe did what they did in 2008+ and its effects. With the corporate press now deceiving and misleading the people who are increasingly poorly educated and working in what is essentially indentured servitude, any wake-up call is likely to be violent. I fear for my children and do not see any way forward that doesn't involve visible sustained resistance to the masters of capital and our corrupt government.

@johnrgm3047

6 жыл бұрын

Capitalism in the West faces a crossroads choice, and I say this as a pro-capitalist but anti-globalist. Either it reigns in the worst excesses of globalism and largely returns to the post-WW2 "social contract capitalism" model (where the local population get fairly decent & secure jobs in return for the capitalists being free to do business and profit from it) or eventually there will be so many losers as a result of globalism that there will be such a political backlash that the very existence of capitalism will be under threat. Most wealthy countries do not engage in pointless wars with each other or violent revolutions because the populace have too much to lose. When the majority have little to lose however, they will see no little or no downside to violent upheaval. The elite 1% would do well to remember if the other 99% ever come after them, there is not going to be a happy ending.

@Xandrosi

6 жыл бұрын

Well said John.

@jsbart96

5 жыл бұрын

I've got his austerity book, just haven't had chance to read it yet. Looking forward to, but it's gunna take me a while to get my head around all the jargon ahah

@artoftheheart11011

Ай бұрын

@@johnrgm3047what do you think who will be the „winner“ at the end of the next accumulation phase and the subsequent unrests?

Love Mark Blyth. My favorite economist in the world.

Tiny detail but Kalecki was Polish. Mark Blyth is still brilliant though.

@userriottt6397

5 жыл бұрын

I am big fan of Blyth too, but he gets Kalecki 100% backwards here. "It follows from the above that a wage rise showing an increase in the power of the trade unions leads-contrary to the precepts of classical economics-to an increase in employment. Conversely, a fall in wages showing a weakening in their bargaining power leads to a decline in employment. The weakness of trade unions in a depres¬sion manifested in permitting wage cuts contributes to the deepening of unemployment rather than to relieving it." Kalecki - "Class struggle and the distribution of national income" sci-hub.se/10.1111/j.1467-6435.1971.tb00148.x That paper can get a bit heavy, Kalecki's thoughts on the topic are laid out more clearly in this article. monthlyreview.org/2013/04/01/marx-kalecki-and-socialist-strategy/

@TheLivirus

5 жыл бұрын

He refer to him as Polish in other interviews. He either brainfarted here or got corrected.

@02vLxcZF

3 жыл бұрын

@@userriottt6397 thanks for pointing this out! This oversight is far from trivial...Tx also for the excellent article summarising Kalecki!

@roc7880

3 жыл бұрын

he said in another lecture he was Polish

@TheGodlessGuitarist

3 жыл бұрын

@@TheLivirus "He either brainfarted here or" Profs in every field frequently make mistakes in public speaking. They are vastly more careful in what they write.

Kalecki's paper, “Political Aspects of Full Employment”, is definitely worth reading, as it did accurately predict the failure of post-war Keynesian policy, and Mark Blyth does an excellent job of highlighting this, along with the inherent shortcomings of the neoliberal era that replaced it, however it does seem that nobody's being particularly forthcoming with any firm ideas on where we should go from here. It appears that the options open to us at present are to continue with more of the same from the neoliberal camp, or what amounts to a return to Keynesian based moderate socialist democracy. I personally voted for the latter at the recent general elections, purely on the grounds that neoliberalism is a clear and present threat to democracy, and I figured the socialist democrat option would at least stop the rot and buy us some time to rethink things. What I do find odd in all this, is that nobody is considering the possibility of a return to a classical economic model with three basic factors (Land, Labour and Capital), as opposed to the current neoclassical one with just two (Labour and Capital). There are a number of very good reasons for doing this. For one thing it would give us the facility to accurately target fiscal policy purely onto parasitic economic activity (that which is concerned with the monopoly of common wealth), whilst removing the burden from the more productive, which would allow us to return the economic rent from the former to the communal coffers, where it could support a universal income, without the need to seize the means of production, or anything drastically Marxist. Furthermore, this could lend itself well to a geo-federal solution, where member states need only share a human rights charter and tax policy, thereby keeping things as reasonably decentralised and democratic as possible. I didn't personally study economics at university, but some of the subjects I did cover frequently touched on common ground, so I'd be most interested to hear what economists have to say about this, as it just seems to be something that never gets debated, and I've yet to come across a cogent argument refuting it... Anyone?

@MrBandholm

6 жыл бұрын

Well I am not an economist, but I have a degree in economy and taxes. Classical economy is not used for some simple reasons. For one thing, most of the companies in the world is build around the stock-market, where the most common type of company a 100 years ago (and older) where the Limited Liability Company model (a very common way of having business in the Nordic countries and Germany). That is important because it keeps ownership in a nation, where the stock company model, is effectively globalizing profit. If you can earn money on other countries, while staying home, you do it... Resulting in the companies no longer needing to stay in one place (because ownership has become global). This translate to taxes. But fundamentally, the problems in much of the western worlds, is not really about if you want to use a classical economic model or a neoclassic one... The trouble to a large extent is the lack of taxation and by that extent, investment into the Western societies. For example, if the US started to use an effective taxation model, not just on the middle class, but the rich and poor, and used that money, to invest into the US society, a lot of the challenges in the US would be solved over a fairly short period of time (say 1-2 decades).

@itcamefromthedeep

5 жыл бұрын

I'm in the same boat as you two educationally. Land is a notable case of a resource, but it's not all *that* special as compared to resources like time or reputation or mindshare or electromagnetic spectrum. I don't see how giving it a separate category clarifies things. Then again I may just be in a radically different place on macroeconomics. As to where macroeconomics goes from here internationally, I'd expect talk of Modern Monetary Theory is going to give a push toward hitting inflation targets through deliberate currency devaluation. I think the most stable outcome would be for central banks to decide to hit their inflation targets by buying national debt and forgiving it to put inflationary pressure on the economy while opening up fiscal space in a way that's as politically neutral as possible. This is as opposed to getting the same inflationary effect now through Quantitative Easing in a way that boosts stock prices.

@Reaper1947

5 жыл бұрын

@Simon Barfield More than half this country is in the same situation, the government won't do anything until the poor revolt and kill a bunch of them. Anyone who thinks I'm wrong I would warn you we are closer than you think to a revolution. Watch those yellow vest marches in France now 28 weeks in a row. TheReaper

@chriszanf

3 жыл бұрын

@@Reaper1947 As Mark likes to tell his American hedge fund managers "The Hamptons is not a defensible position!"

This is a great summary of Globalised Capitalism & Neoliberal Ideology of the 1980s & 90s as well as the ultimate failure of that system during the GFC...Its important to understand that Michał Kalecki who wrote this 7 Page analysis back in 1943 wasnt a "prophet" of the future, he used his intellect & experience to analyse what may happen to Global Capitalism if a "New Deal" being drafted in Washington at the time was put in place. As Mark said, after the end of WWII the US had the strength & energy to put their plans into action both in Europe & Asia (the Marshal Plan was only a small part of this). The resurrection of West Germany and Japan as industrial powers together with their currencies also helped to stabilize global capitalism. In addition to what Mark said, we also had waves of technological advances as well as financial system changes globally.

@zizit.m.6061

6 жыл бұрын

And he was polish, not hungarian.

If you haven't read the paper by Michael Kalecki here is the url for the pdf: delong.typepad.com/kalecki43.pdf Kalenki adds, that if the government opts for full employment, there are things that need to be done to prevent it from coming apart at the seems. "1. Should a progressive be satisfied with a regime of the political business cycle as described in the preceding section? I think he should oppose it on two grounds: (i) that it does not assure lasting full employment; (ii) that government intervention is tied to public investment and does not embrace subsidizing consumption. What the masses now ask for is not the mitigation of slumps but their total abolition. Nor should the resulting fuller utilization of resources be applied to unwanted public investment merely in order to provide work. The government spending programme should be devoted to public investment only to the extent to which such investment is actually needed. The rest of government spending necessary to maintain full employment should be used to subsidize consumption (through family allowances, old-age pensions, reduction in indirect taxation, and subsidizing necessities). Opponents of such government spending say that the government will then have nothing to show for their money. The reply is that the counterpart of this spending will be the higher standard of living of the masses. Is not this the purpose of all economic activity? 2. 'Full employment capitalism' will, of course, have to develop new social and political institutions which will reflect the increased power of the working class. If capitalism can adjust itself to full employment, a fundamental reform will have been incorporated in it. If not, it will show itself an outmoded system which must be scrapped." Subsidizing consumption is a crucial component to full employment, along with structural changes in government and business. If these items are not pursued in tandem, then the objective of full employment will implode. At least, that's what I got out of reading Kalecki's "Political Aspects of Full Employment".

Blyth is briliant and concise as usual.

a return to Keynes is long overdue

O...M...G...I need to watch this like 10 times. Amazing! I'm re-queuing.

Fantastic clip, fortunately I have never played the government's\banks' game. If I really don't need something and I can't afford to pay for it up front then I don't have it. Thats my biggest insurance policy for the truly bad times ahead.

@Longtack55

6 жыл бұрын

Good discipline. I've had only one mortgage (on a home) and repaid it within six years. I loathe to play the banks' game.

@nicholasdickens2801

2 жыл бұрын

Like my neighbour said, and my father, “If you don’t earn it, you don’t spend it.” Once you’ve paid your priority bills, and general living costs, if you have anything left over, save it. Most things are just designed to get you to spend your money.

In the 50's and 60's you borrowed tto buy a car or house. Your monthly payments stayed the same but as each year passed your payments were made with a weaker dollar. So inflation zero out the interest on your loan. On top of that you had home intetest tax credit. Now no inflation and no wage growth so you can never get ahead.

And those who cannot pay the debt will never pay the debt!

Brilliant breakdown

Michał Kalecki was a Polish economist.

I would love to watch and share the most recent takeout interview I just caught the tail end of. I cannot find it anywhere. :(

Edit: got the original CBS video to work on another computer - but you will have to remove all AdBlocking etc. - Unfortunately the video on cbsnews does not work (firefox - everything allowed, and there is no other source on the web). Would an upload of the video on youtube be possible (maybe only audio to avoid copyright hassle ?

@BigHenFor

6 жыл бұрын

Xyz Same Subscribe to The Takeout Podcast and you should be able to download a mp3 of it.

The #Braveheart of economics!!:):)

The detail ignored by professor Blyth is that the main driver of inflation was the price of land caused by the low effective rate of taxation on the potential annual rental value of land and land-like assets (e.g., the broadcast spectrum, licenses to exploit natural resources from public lands and seas, and all natural assets with an inelastic supply). Again, what he fails to acknowledge is that today's inflation is extremely high for anyone who needs to acquire and use land. Note the extent that both rental and owner-occupied housing is so unaffordable in many parts of the world. It is not that housing costs so much more to construct, it is that the land cost component of housing often exceeds more than 50 percent of the price of a residential property.

@grantbeerling4396

6 жыл бұрын

Edward, a question.....and this is an honest point (not a troll like' i want to trip you up rubbish'). Should Government (ie law, taking lending back to Government control, getting rid of Lease ownership and thus the non working establishment, but to be honest not entirely sure how...) take housing out of the speculative market? It seems to me a lazy way to to invest capital (for those lucky enough to have excess from their labour)if you actually want to improve the future of your children (ie long term investment) and the environment they will inherit. Take land out of the equation then what would be the area of investment be? Hopefully high growth areas that actually improve our lot, not an ever decreasing need (ie a home).It should be noted that property is also a great way to launder huge amounts of money.... Personally I have everything I need ( I'm not rich just aware of value), but would like to know how to get people to the top of the hill to enjoy the view. The point i really got from the video is the danger of concentrating on one evil whether it be employment, inflation or inequality....each with their own theory, but all with a consequence...Maybe Donald Rumsfeld was right after all...ha ha

Can we get a link to the article that was in the Political Quarterly??

I love Mark Blyth........

In that where we are now is more like what capitalism has always been, Marx's prognoses now apply, whereas from the 1940s to the 1970s they were falsified. The middle classes are being destroyed, impoverished and reduced in number, the majority are being proletarianised (including becoming proletarians without even the proletarian jobs to go to), and the periodic crises and crashes of the market are producing widespread immiseration, which is real terms impoverishment. In other words, we are once again in the situation which the post war settlement ameliiorated, or merely deferred, in which anti-capitalist revolution is coming over the horizon, and in which socialist ideas and overtly socialist political parties are viable, and not just viable, but growing in viability inexorably, no matter how long corrupted and blinkered institutions like the DNC refuse to change to take advantage of what now works electorally.

@SpiritualFox

6 жыл бұрын

Global Capitalism sounds like Global Imperialism because that's what it is. Reality is unpalatable to the west. Without global economic, cultural, and military hedgemony, national capitalism, or regional capitolism, regain control. All this collectivist rhetoric is designed by intellectuals who seek upward class mobility. Invariably it descends into national socialism. As far as i can tell, all the anarchists in the comment section would be the first to be executed in the communist state they envision. Great. Let's do it.

@patrickholt2270

6 жыл бұрын

Keep reading.

@notrowland3944

6 жыл бұрын

Patrick Holt Socialism has also failed around the world it has destroyed countries and the people at the top are the only ones to profit decency is soon replaced with greed and a need to control others its human nature not an ism that ruins

@patrickholt2270

6 жыл бұрын

Welll, no, that would be Communist parties. Socialist parties, often so named, fight elections, winning some and losing some. The aim to reform the economy and society to greatly reduce economic inequality and break the monopolies by a mixture of strong regulation, nationalisation and forcing corporations to break into competing companies and rebuild strong public services so as to improve people's lives and write off most people's private debts is what is necessary and electorally popular. Only socialists intend to do those things. Non-socialists, including non-socialists in Socialist named parties, don't, whether they are liberals or social-democrats or Christian democrats or whatever else. Socialists, under whatever party name, when they have done those things have been rewarded with electoral success and have not destroyed their countries, quite the reverse. Thus the presidencies of Francois Mitterand, Frederic Delano Roosevelt, the 1945 Labour government, and the Scandinavian model built by parties called Social Democrat, for examples. Greedy people destroy such social gains, yes. Usually called conservatives, Liberals or Republicans.

@davida1b2c3d4c5

5 жыл бұрын

+Rodzilla "In America, racism is so virulent that white workers will destroy their economic future just be told that they are not inferior." Do you have any evidence for this?

Okay I agree that the 2008 bailouts were pretty dodgy, but whats the "next regime" that we need tp adapt. Considering the 1st two regimes were not very stable

I'd love to see this guy debate Peter Schiff

@tonyblaylock1309

6 жыл бұрын

john smith Blyth would eat his lunch for 7days a week

@Jstoney127

6 жыл бұрын

Schiff would be KO'd in less than 20 seconds.

@MrBandholm

6 жыл бұрын

Peter Schiff is a merchant, he understands trade in his narrow field of interest... Mark Blyth is an educator that spends his time with looking at the macro level of the economy. There wouldn't be a debate, because Pet Schiff wouldn't know where to begin or end, and Mark Blyth would be bored out of his mind, with a guy that didn't know anything.

Here are the two economists that were relevent to the period he's referring to: Michal Kalecki: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Micha%C5%82_Kalecki and Karl Polanyi: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karl_Polanyi

So everyone talks about the weather, RWolf as well but we're kinda short on what needs to be done to fix it and how to get there.

That was good except he neglected the importance of the oil shocks.

@chriszanf

3 жыл бұрын

If he had 8 minutes rather than 6,I think he would have covered it!

Any book recommendations for me to read on this and similar subjects?

@bravescd14

6 жыл бұрын

das kapital. social democracy is dead

@joshuaamy3010

6 жыл бұрын

Tesh ates A less economic-, and more social/cultural-focused approach can be found in Mark Fisher's (short) book Capitalist Realism

@ODYSSEUSXYZ

6 жыл бұрын

Yanis Varoufakis: And the Weak Suffer What They Must?: Europe's Crisis and America's Economic Future.

@grantbeerling4396

6 жыл бұрын

'23 things they don't tell you about Capitalism', by Dr Ha-Joon Chang, Reader at Cambridge Uni, written in a very accessible manner, but with an eye of human cause and effect.....

@Caldermologist

4 жыл бұрын

George Monbiot; Out of the Wreckage, A New Politics in the Age of Crises.

Government deficits are the private sector surplus. That is the key to understand. Mark does not get this yet and unknowingly thereby supports the neoliberal agenda. Stock flow consistent economic modelling shows this very clearly.

@RCPanzerTank

6 жыл бұрын

The Depth Effect see wynne godley, stock flow consistent economic modelling predates mmt by decades. Mmt do recognize it tho.

I like the hothouse comment, every gardener who thinks about the economy knows this, money is like shit, great big piles of it just stinks, but. spread it around and things grow. Vote Jeremy Corbyn, he's a gardener.

@1951GL

6 жыл бұрын

Agree except for the last sentence. Corbyn is a 1970 gardener, supporting Sinn Fein/IRA and any group in South America which is red and carries a gun or two. McDonnell is worse - a Stalinist. Labour could win with decent leadership and, preferably no connection with the London Labour Party. Caroline Flint possibly?

@lutherblissett9070

6 жыл бұрын

Nicely put Lynne!

@1951GL

6 жыл бұрын

Sorry, so do you. I heard Corbyn in 1970, 1974, 1980 and 1985 - so, as far as brain rotting goes, I'd advise you to look in a mirror.

@1951GL

6 жыл бұрын

Sorry sunshine - seen and heard him. You've been had, like a lot of youngsters who believe the "new" version. It's a mask. And no, I'm not a tory, nor a Lib Dem.

@nonfictionone

6 жыл бұрын

I couldn't vote for corbyn simply because he would OPEN THE FLOODGATES RE IMMIGRANTS. Then me and my children, and their children, and their children, etc. would regret it. The places these immigrants come from ARE WORSE than England, and they would make England just like where they come from. I can't say it more simply than that.

Compulsory education for the entire western world- The history of political economic corporate market forces reduced to absolute essentials!

Our world should become a global economy with world civic rights and freedoms as for capital, trade, goods, services and humans.

Polish economist! en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Micha%C5%82_Kalecki

sauce on the paper Blyth is talking about? want to read it.

Overall I agree with Dr. Blythe’s synopsis. However his condensation does gloss over some details that are important. For instance, one can forget that during the Reagan-Bush 1 yeas the postwar economic order was not dumped wholesale. It was Bill Clinton who killed Glass Steagall and post war financial regulations. Reagan and Bush, being transitional figures of the postwar period, understood the reasons why substructure should be kept in place. Further they knew all to well that their elections depended on the blue dog democrats. There was no way they were going to stomp on unions and employment. The idea was to free up some of the financial system allowing capital the flow to help alleviate inflationary pressures but it wasn’t supposed to become an all out orgy. It took the toxic baby boomers to take what was a modest change to the financial systems and turn it into the disaster of 2008.

"National economies", well that also led to WWI and WWII. Because protectionism prevented people from cooperating and integrating with each other as within the European Union.

He links low interest rates to low inflation as is the situation now, but doesn't include high interest rates in the causes of high inflation in the 70s and 80s. Businesses may need to increase their prices as their costs increase; banks have never had that excuse for their need to increase interest rates because the mortgages they create cost them nothing.

Hot damn!

Nice Mark, but Michał Kalecki was Polish, not Hungarian economist. And you should pronounce his name "Kale-TZ-ki, your pronunciation for polish ears sounds and literally means Michał "Disabled".

every system will have its own flaws. but selling govt companies at a dollar is evil.

I wonder whether the famous stagflation in the 70s might not be just an accident because of the oil crisis, that triggered massive inflation for the rest of the decade. that was not an accident, but a political choice of Nixon admin to resist the blackmail of Arab oil producers. what if without that event, the economy would have been just fine and adapt to the new environment without the Reaganomics?

A 1000 likes...

"No inflation anywhere"? err wasn't a huge chunk of the bailout money thrown at food derivatives which caused a price spike that helped lead to the Arab Spring and isn't there a consistent trend in fixed asset speculation in urban centres, your stereotypical Chinese billionaire buying up empty luxury apartments in London, which in turn in leading to higher levels of debt, albeit of the illiquid kind?

Has he been invited back?

Capitalism with a social and environmental conscience,how? Punish the rich?

No inflation? The most expensive item people ever buy is a house and they have rocketed in real terms relative to incomes due to QE and low negative real interest rates

@kellnola

6 жыл бұрын

Real estate is not part of the inflation number. Asset inflation is different.

@helmethead72

6 жыл бұрын

A bubble waiting to burst. And who does it benefit? People who need a mortgage for 35 years? Those who can't afford to leave Mummy and Daddy's house? Or the banksters?

@martynfenton4862

6 жыл бұрын

ke.ux it should be part of inflation number. It's taking majority of after tax spend in uk. What's more it's being used in effect as an asset

@MrBandholm

6 жыл бұрын

Real estate is like most other things depending on the market. Britain open up for the richest foreginers to buy real estate, and the result was that prices went up, combined with not building new houses on a large scale, and prices stay up... But that is not inflation, one of the core parts of inflation, is that there are more money (at less value), resulting in the debt getting slowly eaten up... That is not happening in the UK, so it cannot by definition be inflation.

@cockoffgewgle4993

5 жыл бұрын

In the UK we also flatly stopped building council houses. We built 100k/year post-war upto Thatcher and then almost literally zero since. Throwing tens of thousands of basically free houses into the market anchors prices hugely. As well as reducing demand by giving people those houses. This, of course, has been a deliberate policy. The banking fraudsters need that asset inflation to leverage their shady dealings against.

the US Federal Reserve has a dual mandate, both full employment and price stability. the premises of Blyth's argument aren't sound

What about the idea of sovereign money vs debt money? Can we use sovereign money to grease the wheels a bit? And stop moralizing over what are symptomatic debts- such as the public debts.

So let's break this stupid cycle... socialism or barbarism.

Don't forget the rise of communism. Also decoupling your money from gold and silver doesn't help.

but when standard of living equalizes acrpss tge globe then its back tp inflatiion no inflation due to resource and manufacturing slacknesss which neutralizes inflation. its like a hold pond off a river that ever time the river goes up 2 inches thecwater flows into that which has room. the constant fear preached on news induces a reduction in money velocity so creating 13 tril still did not increase inflation In an open sytem tgeir is wage increase just not in america and europe it is in asia and africa tge only way to increase standard of living as a whole is tgru increased efficiency which is brought on by necessity which does not exist and innovation which is motivated by necessityvwhich does not exist. america and europe as a whole are like the 30 year old guy living in moms basement smoking weed playing playstation and the only thing that will motivate him is voting day for bernie. who like the wizard of oz is just a man and cant do much but lie to the simple minds.fear this ,robotics will free capital from the demands of erratic labor and this investment will turn te simpletons into tge useless eaters that justifies mass extermination. every solution creates a new problem and by the time its realizedby the masses its too deep to reverse

the minute other countrys started producing usa gdp produced less and now only thing securing its economy its na old oil dólar connection or else the usa finished

We do have inflation today though, it's concentrated in real estate and stocks.

That about sums it up, the big question now is what's next? Another Trump, another Brexit, or endless yellow vest parades? Best do it sooner than later, they are coming with the pitchforks. TheReaper!

Socialism is a good idea, actually. But dictatorial government like Communism? Nope.

usa will go back to a normal world currency with minor gdp, arrogante citizens, more left wing, 1930s unemployment, until their currency is in pair with growing countrys, poor countrys europe is connected to 2 Giants, china n russia and hopes there for human capital will be higher

You in no way simplified anything at all as far as I am concerned, iI am more confused now than I was before. So dint be so bloody smug at your ability to explain.