We apologize for any confusion. It is important to note that this interview was pre-recorded on June 20th, 2024.

@urbanistgod

18 күн бұрын

I forgive you.

@mustavogaia2655

17 күн бұрын

No problem. Some other channels are just rehashing old audio as new interview - and this is clearely not the case. Apart from that, the Zeihan audience is so attentive that can time his appeareance by the length of his hair. Maybe the photo on the thumb caused part of the confusion.

@zibbitybibbitybop

17 күн бұрын

Guessing where the heck on the planet Peter is gonna pop up next is sort of a fun game for us to play at this point. 😂

@noahway13

16 күн бұрын

I guess that is why the debate was not covered...

@noahway13

16 күн бұрын

Does anyone know of a site of an economist who is making any predictions on the workings of a future economy when we all have a falling demography? I see a huge problem with a falling demography, the chaos of failing major nation states, and an aggressively growing multi-trillion dollar deficit (US) as the government tries to borrow to keep our standard of living fairly level and tries to subsidize industry for jobs and equipment. ... I am not a conspiracy theorist or anything but I have said for a decade that an economy based on growth is nothing but a Ponzi scheme. It is simple logic to know that the planet cannot have a growing population forever.

Peter is great, wonderful. But, I have not heard him say anything new, in a lonnnnnng time! 🇮🇪🎊🎉🤣

@chrishooge3442

19 күн бұрын

That's because demographics and geography don't change over the short term.

@WoTMike1989

19 күн бұрын

@@burnettis1 i think people got a little excited by Peter’s Ukraine War videos. Generally, the stuff he studies doesn’t change a whole lot over short periods of time. We get updates when updates actually happen. The Ukraine War was different and is what brought him to a wider audience. There was new information on a daily, sometimes hourly, basis

@cosmothewonderdog8602

19 күн бұрын

He has a thesis. It hasn’t changed. He just conveys it to different audiences. If you keep watching these videos, then you’re going to hear the same thing over and over. It’s not like he’s come to a different conclusion.

@user-bz8dv3lx5x

19 күн бұрын

Hes just been proven wron time and time again. russia will lose war. China collapse because of wave 2 covid dudes a CIA plant.

@tonywilson4713

19 күн бұрын

There's a serious question of *WHEN DID THIS INTERVIEW HAPPEN.* Anyone who watches Peter's channel regularly knows that the background in this interview is from his house in Colorado and anyone who watched his channel knows he is currently in Italy not Colorado. Also if you take a quick look at his beard and compare it to any of the thumbnails you'll see that his beard is much longer now than in this interview. If you do go to Peters channel and scroll down. The last time Peter posted from his house with that background was about 5 months ago and at that time his beard was a trimmed. Now that does not mean anything other than its unlikely this interview was done in the last few days. When it was actually conducted is up to the host of this channel to tell us.

This had to be recorded before "the debate"....

@blafonovision4342

17 күн бұрын

No difference. Only weirdos are paying attention to politics at this point. Regular people don’t pay attention until after Labor Day.

@bathhatingcat8626

6 күн бұрын

@@blafonovision4342 are weirdos still the only ones paying attention? Bang bang bang 😂

@michaelherron4306

5 күн бұрын

Before the debate, before the assassination attempt, before Biden stepped down…

There's a serious question of *WHEN DID THIS INTERVIEW HAPPEN.* Anyone who watches Peter's channel regularly knows that the background in this interview is from his house in Colorado and anyone who watched his channel knows he is currently in Italy not Colorado. Also if you take a quick look at his beard and compare it to any of the thumbnails you'll see that his beard is much longer now than in this interview. If you do go to Peters channel and scroll down. The last time Peter posted from his house with that background was about 5 months ago and at that time his beard was a trimmed. Now that does not mean anything other than its unlikely this interview was done in the last few days. When it was actually conducted is up to the host of this channel to tell us.

@matiasrodriguez6981

19 күн бұрын

Did you not hear them refer to the debate?? There is your answer.

@user-um5bk6fw1l

19 күн бұрын

And your point is?

@dmka12

19 күн бұрын

​@@user-um5bk6fw1l his point is there are a tremendous number of silly channels out there that take years old zeihan interviews and post them as new. What's the point in watching pre covid interviews etc or interviews during the Trump administration

@cosmothewonderdog8602

19 күн бұрын

@@tonywilson4713 And this matters because???

@tonywilson4713

19 күн бұрын

@@matiasrodriguez6981 Yeah which debate in which year? Go look at Peter's last video posted on his own channel. Look at the length of his beard. This interview was NOT done that recently.

This was obviously recorded a while back. Love Peters commentary, even when he gets it wrong , which is usually surrounding US politics. He is a self admittedly a leftist. Therefore he his political bias shines through. Leftist cannot help themselves when they are dealing with TDS. However I totally enjoy his commentary regardless. I have learned to filter his bias and glean insight post bias filtering. Good job Peter.

@LoriNorwood-ew7xd

11 күн бұрын

I believe he considers himself a globalist. Not really what either party is offering at the moment. In so far as immigration is our superpower and “the greatest skills transfer” in history, the MAGA obsession with xenophobia is just counterproductive nonsense.

@holtcrowder

11 күн бұрын

@@LoriNorwood-ew7xd You are probably correct. However, in my opinion all globalist are leftist. They want to control and oversee every aspect of our lives. They may be worst than just leftist.

@josephagnello3603

7 күн бұрын

Agree with you completely!

Whether or not PZ is right on all of his points, his real genius, imo, is in getting us to think about these issues.

@jean-marcfiliatrault266

19 күн бұрын

I would go further. PZ’s unique offering to the World is his ability to include so many distinct fields of knowledge and related facts and data into one vision of how things will unfold. Indeed, it’s the first time that somebody includes History, demography, economics, geography and geology into one! Everybody else typically uses one or two fields of knowledge to come up with a prediction.

@freeheeler09

15 күн бұрын

Agree! He even mentioned my own concerns about how fast agricultural production is declining as the climate crisis gets worse

@kevindivine2869

13 күн бұрын

The only thing he seems to have a harder time with is American elections. He tends to look at a macro level, which was good enough for 2022, but I think he also can ignore the effect of perception-- and I believe he discounts the general pissed-off-ness of the current American electorate, especially in the swing states. I also feel like he doesn't account for the effect of black swan events on American national politics, and now we have had three in a month 1] that Trump did get convicted, but outside of a few pockets most people understand it's a screw job; 2] Biden died, figuratively, in the debate and the Ds have formed a circular firing squad; and 3] Trump damn well came within a *literal centimeter* of actually dying last night. Add to that the fact that Trump [and his campaign, but mostly him] has suddenly learned to be prudent and circumspect, which has made this election a referendum on Biden, who is failing spectacularly. Like Ben Shapiro said on Bill Maher's show a couple nights ago, it's like when the velociraptors in Jurassic Park figured out the doorknobs--mayhem is going to ensue.

@TheStephaneAdam

7 күн бұрын

@@kevindivine2869 Indeed. Zeihan is a good generalist who's great at pointing out macro tendencies but he has two big weaknesses. First is that he tends to underestimate how adaptable nations and structures can be when they have to. China for example has pushed for increased productivity and with some migration the demographic collapse becomes a much gentler slope. Second he tends to miss how small structural details or individuals can shape things at critical moments. Like the Democrats being a very wide tent that's just not built to fight something like the Trump cult of personality backed by a captured Supreme Court.

The correct name for the inflation act should have been "the inflation PRODUCTION act". Atleast in the short-term. Long-term some of it may produce retooling that could help our economy. But our long-term debt may bring us down before then.

The issue with the Russian nuclear threat is that the weapons and their delivery systems are neglected. Russia has just not allocated the funds needed to maintain and keep their nuclear weapons operational. And with what little may have been directed for that, much of it would have been prime for embezzlement by the top brass who would see those systems as doomsday options at any rate. Russia has not modernized their delivery systems or updated their warhead electronics, targeting, or guidance and maneuvering systems. They are using 32+ year old weapons that have had zero maintenance or modernization. Even the USA has been scrambling to keep their missile delivery systems operational after rebuilding the minuteman missiles in the silos twice and they allocate $63 billion a year to maintain their nuclear weapons. Keep in mind that is as much as Russia has been spending on Defense for an entire year prior to the Russo/Ukraine war.

The most intelligent questions I have heard in a long time. Good show.

By now, those antique fireworks are not likely to even make it out of their silos.

Peter is great for geography, demographics and industrial inputs. Trump breaks his mind.

@user-xj6ym2jf5c

19 күн бұрын

Trump isn't queer

@pecan11

19 күн бұрын

No he doesn’t He just thinks he’s demented bec he is

@sephiroth6839

18 күн бұрын

@@pecan11 Peters original prediction is Trump would win 12 states. Ain’t no way.

@darachilds6817

18 күн бұрын

I agree. I will hold Peter is the absolute highest regard if he calls this election correctly. As it is, Trump lost the last election by 44k votes in 6 states when the majority were just so sick and tired of him. Now the roles are reversed and Trump (who always outperforms the polls) is leading. I think Trump might win 350 EC votes at this rate and quite possibly the popular vote.

@VancouverInvestor

18 күн бұрын

I agree...but don't underestimate the ability for midnight vote dumps from the Dem side.

The more I hear Zeihan the more it seems hes just saying the things the people who pay for his advice want to hear.

@uberraschtedame1510

4 күн бұрын

He is an expensive "charlatan", his predictions are based on assumptions, stereotypes of leaders and nations and they tend to have a short shelf live. Everything is garnished with selected data and plenty of pedantic tones.

He's calling for a Biden Landslide. So . . . he's an idiot?

This was fun!

I wanted to commend you on an excellent video. Your questions are brilliant, and I really liked the timestamps. The summary of the video was superb. A bit longer than most, but since it was so well written, it's a good thing. Subscribed

See peter zeihan interview, watch peter zeihan interview. Never skip!

I’m no longer quite so sure about a Biden landslide! ;) Peter is very good on concrete specifics like demographics, food and energy but I’m not so sure of his reasoning about people’s decisions. Example: he assumes that Trump being a “convicted felon” makes him look worse, as opposed to making the Democrats look corrupt and like. S.American dictatorship.

How many Chinese landing craft could avoid "smart" weapons? How many Chinese paratroopers could avoid "smart" weapons? How long could a Chinese military venture last, once the Mideast oil is cut off through the strait of Malacca? The US probably won't risk their carriers, but the US could deploy a dozen or more subs to close the Taiwan strait.

@bobnuttall461

12 күн бұрын

Perhaps, but China is not really dependent on supply from the middle-east, they have established supply lines from Russia’s eastern assets. The dependence on the Straits of Malacca supply lines are not as strategic as they once were.

"Adults aren't stupid." What reality does this guy live in??? Clearly not the same one I live in...or that George Carlin lived in.

@MarkGast

Күн бұрын

Well, I suppose if he wanted to be completely accurate he would say some adults of working pattern recognition. That would be a little to in your face for most his audiences.

Thanks for pronouncing his name correctly.

Idk about China not being able to compete in high end production. BYD and Hauwei have made insane strides. China by far leads the world in battery technology. China now has luxury cars that outcompete european luxury brands in terms of mileage and reliability. Their ranges as far as EV's are concerned absolutely destroy the competition. , Hauwei just unveiled a phone that can charge from 0-100% in 8 minutes. They have the best cameras a phone can have. They have replicated and are catching up on generative AI, and as far as general AI applications they're the best. Toyota just partnered with Hauwei to use components for autonomous driving. I just don't see it. I'd love to be proven wrong.

Can we get an "um" "ah" counter from the host 🙄

Peter!

Much is changing 😮

Peter also predicted BMW wouldn't be able to produce cars this year because of the Ukraine war.

@davidz7858

18 күн бұрын

His prediction is opposite of truth

@ljyljy88

18 күн бұрын

No he predicted in the next 10 to 15 years due to a lack of a replacement generation of workers and engineers to support German manufacturing.

@s0.0s

16 күн бұрын

@@ljyljy88 No, he specifically said BMW would run out of wires and copper and replacements would be so prohibitively expensive that they would stop manufacturing.

So we need a theoretical guide via economics that can propose a system with labor, capital ect.. in decline. Anyone know anybody who is doing stuff like that ?

@bobnuttall461

12 күн бұрын

Perhaps the balance between Labour and Capital needs to be re-established? Production is a partnership, neither one can exist without the other, without balance nothing gets made, both must gain… capital must get the larger reward because it takes the greatest risk but labour must gain or it moves to opportunities with higher reward. It’s not rocket science.

If China is going down soon, how can you explain that platforms like TEMU or brands like SHEIN have risen to the top within the last few years? Can anyone explain?

No doubt Peter is highly intelligent but where is he getting his statistics? It would be fresh if he could just put forth his opinions without his left of center ,democratic political leanings seeping through. It is truly obvious in his dialogue. His presentations are becoming less interesting and questionably on point.

Outstanding! Do yourself a favor and listen to this video!

At 41:00 his analysis of Trump is that he has no attention span. How does someone have the #1 TV show for a decade, build high rises and prestigous golf courses all over the planet, and become President, have no attention span? I think Peter threw his genius card out the window on that one.

What I do not agree in all of Peter thinking about Russia is their "frontier problem". If nobody will think invading Russia, because will get lost on the vast teritory, even only the european part, a teritory that doesn't have enough infrastructure, roads and railways, in the same way Napoleon get lost and Hitler's armies cannot hold the oil fields near Stalingrad, why the russians will need advanced frontier to the heart of Europe? Is about control of teritories, resources and populations. Is about acces to Bosphorus and better shores on Baltics. Is about the control they had in soviet times. So, about all these countries found protection in NATO, but Putin has his own interpretation about having NATO at the gates.

@darachilds6817

18 күн бұрын

I think you are mistaking how Russia views themselves with how you and I and the rest of the world views them. Their history tells them they are at risk.

@flxjay8985

18 күн бұрын

@@darachilds6817 The last two invasions on Russia were in 1812 by Napoleon, and in 1941 by Hitler. Both bites the dirt because of almost imposible logistics, terrain and winter. Have any ideea how russians have done war beyond their western border in the last.... 300 years, and why? Why did they atacked Poland and Finland in '39? Because of danger of being invaded by these countries?

@noahway13

16 күн бұрын

@@flxjay8985 I agree with you, I think. I don't think Russia is threatened by NATO at its door. I think they don't want NATO to advance closer because that takes away countries THEY can invade. BUT, I'm not sure, because of psychology-- like when a spouse is cheating, they are very suspicious of the other one cheating. Russia knows it wants to invade (I think we can think of a recent example...), so they are suspicious of getting invaded.

31:14 the water in fuel is a mistranslation. Similar to gas in USA not running on a liquid fuel but on a gas, because it is usually called gas short for gasoline not for eg natural gas.

@MarkGast

Күн бұрын

So, what is the correct translation?

was this recorded before the debate?

@rjsisco6056

19 күн бұрын

I think so. If you go to Zeihan on geopolitics, his KZread channel, he has his reaction to the debate posted CliffsNotes version; Trump will still lose because the true independents won’t vote away their votes

@0rthogonal

19 күн бұрын

Doesn’t matter. Zeihan doesn’t know shit about elections or polling. Pre-debate Trump is running away with it.

@listener523

19 күн бұрын

Pete is an interesting guy. He has this complex global model based on multiple interactions. Yet he gets his domestic views from tabloids like the Times.

@cdzrocks

19 күн бұрын

I'm definitely bookmarking this he's calling a big shot here.

@Tea4Texas

19 күн бұрын

Yep. Biden wins and the right (including me) will turn our backs on democracy.

Do we go back to a pre-industrial economic model? A nation of small to medium sized family oriented businesses? Churning dollars over back and forth in smaller amounts but on a massive scale? Deconcentration of wealth back to the citizenry? A nation of savers instead of consumers? Nah, nevermind. Couldn’t work.

Peter says Chinas population declines and China cannot feed itself. But if the population declines, there will be more food per person, not? I really don't understand why population decline is a problem. There are more upsides than downsides, I think.

@billpetersen298

15 күн бұрын

If most of the rural poor, are just old people. Where the younger few, have gone to the cities, as migrant workers. Rural farm production, and its infrastructure, will suffer.

@bobnuttall461

12 күн бұрын

That’s a difficult and complex equation but at its simplistic level to grow an economy requires more consumers, if there are fewer consumers and therefore more human assets required to be redeployed to food production then demand for high value consumer goods falls. That is far too simplistic but it makes things very (very) difficult for a government where the individual has no influence over change.

Seems his dislike of Trump has clouded his election prediction. Yes, it could go either way, but a blowout?? He is on an island with that opinion. If he is right, he truly is a genius.

@MarkGast

Күн бұрын

I dunno, I would vote for a corpse before I would vote for Trump. The people that will make the actual difference are the Independents in the swing states. Peter gave his reasoning and probable outcome.

acording to the record, this was recorded on June 20th, 2024 ... (before the 'debate', not that it matters ! ) Zeihan should STAY AWAY FROM THE DOMESTIC POLITICS ! He sucks to High Heaven !

China has huge waters wealth, and land fertility. They also have huge educational investment because education is sacred. They are way bigger than the US in Purchasing Power Parity. They are also wise beyond Western perspectives. So... stop cheering for their demise. I returen this week from 40 days there. China works well, their trains run at 120 to 150 MPH and on time. Their air is on time too. The streets are faster than ours to get you from point a to point b, including Shianghai.

@freeheeler09

15 күн бұрын

China doesn’t have enough fertilizer or fuel or water or actually fertile farmland to feed itself. And, look at how much the climate crisis has hammered water supplies and agricultural production this year and last. China is living dangerously with its reliance on its massive food and fertilizer imports. Only a handful of countries in the world are still significant food exporters. And, food prices are rising because of increasing conflicts throughout the world, rising fuel and fertilizer prices, declining soil fertility, water availability and agricultural production and a rising world population. Ukraine and Russia, two of the world’s most important agricultural countries, aren’t exporting as much food and fertilizer as they used to. China, India and many other countries will be seeing significant food shortages within the decade.

As a counterpoint, globalisation is not new, it’s a very US centric viewpoint… globalisation was prevalent in the colonial era, England, the Netherlands (Dutch), France, Portugal, “Germany”etc at all established global empires, the US simply repeated that behaviour through economic colonialism… that’s just a variation on the status quo. Population decline in the developed world is a function of affluence, avarice and arrogance, as wealth and health of the middle class increases the more people want and less that they are willing to give up to support having children, the more healthy a population becomes the less need there is for a large family to bring in income simply to survive and the more collective bargaining competes against capital the more growth there is an in income… none of these factors are a result of US economic strength, that was just a catalyst for acceleration. The analysis is very focused on China but fails to recognise that the same dynamics in all tier one countries, the US included. All of those countries require increasing population growth to keep growing their economies, that’s fundamental premise of Capitalism. I don’r argue against the benefits of Capitalism but it is xenophobia/religious exclusion that underpins the collapse of access to labour and growth in the numbers of consumers. In that sense what the analysis describes is China’s fundamental aversion to ‘foreign’ labour and capital inflows (I.e. globalism). The US and Europe are facing the same fundamental issue, they want growth but foreign ethnic labour and consumers are specifically not welcomed… Japan is the most obvious global example. I agree with some of the analysis but to suggest we are all doomed is too simplistic, in a connected world that is simply a market opportunity, time will tell l… it’s a fascinating era.

Role/future of Africa and Mexico in your predictions?

@JohnDoe-td3xx

17 күн бұрын

Cheap labor and mid lvl manufacturing, respectively And tequila!

@bobnuttall461

12 күн бұрын

A very interesting question.

Soon the world will move on!

Well, the CCP's Third Plenum is coming up in the next week. We might get an idea on what Xi is thinking with the official releases from the state media and the various interpretations from the China watchers.

Peter's great and I have tons of respect for him but the thing I never see acknowledged is that if his theory about Russia being dead-set on plugging/occupying land gaps to their motherland is incorrect then the entire raison d'etre for the supporting Ukraine to ever increasing degrees is completely invalidated and we're rushing hyper-aggressively into a conflict that has a very high likelihood of triggering the 90-minute nuclear war that permanently ends civilization and virtually all human life on earth. To me, that's an insane amount of confidence to put behind a course of action for which we only have our interpretation of historical analogs as evidence. When I consider this in context of how our government has been made a disaster of every conflict since Vietnam (perhaps with the exception of GW I), I'm not left with a great deal of confidence that they're operating with a great deal of competency or clarity in executing this conflict either. If it turns out that Ukraine is on par with Afghanistan (in terms of modeling and execution of the conflict) then we (i.e. the entire human race) is very likely in grave danger.

@4Fixerdave

15 күн бұрын

The problem is old and the solution inevitable, although insane. When someone with access to nuclear weapons threatens to use them "unless..." then the only logical solution is to forcefully push back. No leader can get away with nuclear blackmail. Allowing that would inevitably lead to further blackmail by that leader or another. Eventually, the blackmail price will hit the point where an all-out nuclear exchange is inevitable. So, we might as well get it on now. This is the undeniable logic of MAD. Was the initial support for Ukraine wise? It's possible to debate that. But, we did and then Putin made veiled threats about nukes. That's it, it's done, we're in. If we back out, Putin, Kim, or the next one will do it again, and again, and again, until the world ends. Threatening nukes to gain some offensive advantage cannot be allowed to work, our survival depends on this. There is no longer any logical argument to be made for not supporting Ukraine such that it will not lose. Though, that will not stop all the arguments about how much support we might give for it to win. And yes, I also don't think the logic of "a defensible border" makes a lot of sense for invading Ukraine and that the 2022 prediction was just luck,. I think it was just Putin messing with Ukrainian politics, losing to Maidan, then annexing Crimea because he was worried about losing Sevastopol. Then, the Ukrainians cut off the water to Crimea and when (in 2022) the reservoirs were down to 7%, he had to either invade or evacuate the civilians... he chose wrong again. It's not always driven by demographics and geography. Sometimes, a lot of times, it all starts with a mistake that snowballs... there was an old lady that swallowed a fly.

Excellent conversation

Zeihan actually believes in man-made climate change. How can someone who is so intelligent and informed accept that craziness? This makes his other conclusions suspect.

I wonder how Peter thinks of the policies of the WEF and how this influences the west politics and economics The centralising of power in the central banks

@bobnuttall461

12 күн бұрын

The WEF is largely an ‘influencer’ and exactly what the name says a forum. It has no real power to dictate the authority of any countries policy or power… the forum may attempt to create some consensus but no more than that. It has no power to compel.

When was this interview recorded?

@tonywilson4713

19 күн бұрын

YES EXACTLY and I have commented else where as a few others have. I know form his own channel that he's currently in Italy while the background for this shows he was at home in Colorado when this happened. The last time Peter did one of his own videos with that background was 5 months ago.

@MetisStrategy

18 күн бұрын

We apologize for any confusion. This interview was pre-recorded on June 20th, 2024.

@bobnuttall461

12 күн бұрын

A while ago.

Thank you for your insights - What a show!

Well stop causing chaos around the world. Maybe nobody will want to harm you. Stop harming others

They got a long way to get America back to what it was before they began giving it all away :'( but as i always say... haven't got tired of his America 1st ways of seeing things.

Very interesting but I echo the comment about when this interview was filmed? Surely there are questions about Biden now after recent poor interview. Maybe that doesn’t affect the election because he is better than the alternative. Interesting about Globalisation was ‘just to get the world on (the USA) our side’. So interesting about population decline, when I was at college we still thought overpopulation was a problem. Now it’s the lack of a young workforce that’s the problem, which many countries fix with immigration. But as Peter says integration can be a problem and I would say that unscrupulous politicians can use the backlash to get elected.

@MetisStrategy

18 күн бұрын

We apologize for any confusion. This interview was pre-recorded on June 20th, 2024.

Trump will shock them all . . .

@MarkGast

Күн бұрын

The only thing Trump could do to shock me is finally end up behind bars.

Peter is brilliant on China, but completely unaware of what has been happening here in the US Regarding immigration, the US has long standing legal immigration for the very best and brightest(top 1%). Ideally, we could accept the top 3%.

@matth2377

19 күн бұрын

Part of the problem is that we don’t need the top 3%. We need people who are skilled in blue collar labor, and we need them faster than we can vet them. I’m not thrilled about letting tons of immigrants in, but perfect is not on the menu when it comes to solving immigration in the US.

@henli-rw5dw

19 күн бұрын

I just don't see how anything he says will play out for China. Communists don't have to accomodate special interests, no gridlocks. The experts debate, and solution is rolled out. For example for demographics, they've already started paying couples to have children. Right now it's $4k for the 3rd kid in Guang Zho.

@oats6452

19 күн бұрын

​@@brijac04Dude do you know who you're talking to? This is CharlesWomack2166. That's Charles-fucking-Womack, bro. He know his shiz.

@TJ-vh2ps

19 күн бұрын

⁠@@oats6452Exactly! The 2166 in his name is because that’s the year he was born: he’s from the future! He knows what he’s talking about. 😂

@Seicks

19 күн бұрын

I'm sorry, but I frankly fail to see how Peter Zeihan is brilliant on.China. He's predicted China's collapse half a dozen times, and China's still there...

Does anyone know of a site of an economist who is making any predictions on the future economy when we all have a falling demography? I see a huge problem with a falling demography, the chaos of failing major nation states, and an aggressively growing multi-trillion dollar deficit (US) as the government tries to borrow to keep our standard of living fairly level and tries to subsidize industry for jobs and equipment. ... I am not a conspiracy theorist or anything but I have said for a decade that an economy based on growth is nothing but a Ponzi scheme. It is simple logic to know that the planet cannot have a growing population forever.

@freeheeler09

15 күн бұрын

Good points! And neoliberal capitalism has always been a Ponzi scheme. We humans have so far overdrawn the world’s resources and ecological capital that our resource and ecological deficits make the US debt look like a manageable problem. And the climate crisis, as the US Military calls it, is the big threat multiplier. Our economic and societal collapse is ensured.

Peter Zeihen is a genius in terms of historic data and future strategy. I just have one problem when it comes to his analysis. In all his predictions USA comes on top like in Hollywood movies. if only he comes out of this imaginative world with obsession for his country USA , he will see that world will be a more multilateral / multipolar / dynamic power shift prone system , where NO one country (USA) or one power concentration ( EU or NATO or five eyes) can say they are morally superior and use their dangerous power concentration to arm-twist a less powerful nation… we will see more and more countries collapsing economically in developing world while Islamists and leftists will ruin USA / UK/germany / France. All four of these countries don’t make enough babies and have to import humans like beef or chicken to run USA economy. The immigrants who come may not hate Russia like existing white Americans and new immigrants may also be not ready to fight USA a war or may not believe in USA maintaining its imaginary superpower status when most nations have woken up to USA s sanctions based diplomacy. USA can be a powerful force but it won’t be able to control the world any more…

“The Democratic party will win this election by a landslide. If Biden doesn’t die…” 😅 Well, he kinda did…

Mr. Doom and Gloom

Makes you look at things......Peter needs to get a lil MAGA IN HIM................AMERICA IS THE ONLY THING......NO ONE IS OUR CANNON FODDER......WE HAD NO SECURITY FEAR PETER.....

Question to you; Who would be the puppet master and who would be the puppet? I think there is no place in a 21st century world for imperialist dominant type thinking. If we can’t share what this life has to offer we will not make it as a species.

And WE (the Goverment of The United States) have lost the faith and trust of the majority of the other Nations of the world. You don't tell people "Hay, let US keep your gold in OUR bank. We will keep it safe, and give it back whenever you want." but read the fine print. "Unless we don't want to, or if you do something we don't like..."

He said, prior to the Trump/Biden debate, that Trump will lose as long as Biden doesn't die. He also said he could change his mind if Biden died. Does he now believe that Biden is politically dead?

@markvargus6519

16 күн бұрын

He despises the Drumph (Trump). I think his hatred of Trump has definitely colored his analysis of the election. He just assumes that the majority of independents hate Trump as much as he does. Honestly, I have no way to figure out what's going to happen in this election.

The only country US is immigration is Canada? That seems to leave out a lot.

I think what you're saying about inflation is wage inflation. Reducing wage inflation to deflate wages is a problem. This continues to be the source of inequality in this country. Don't tax to pay for things. Just deflate wages. Taxation requires cuts and guts. Both parties lack backbone. So I'll vote for the bat shit crazy until it's been addressed.

@bobnuttall461

12 күн бұрын

Which country?

@chrisperkins7331

10 күн бұрын

So you think reguler folks should not have pay rises? On the other hand if you are saying that people like Musk should have their income reduced then I would agee with you.

Could China not try to evolve into a service economy with 500 million citizens fairly well off and well educated semi South Korea like and outsource the grunt work to VietNam region.

Peter Zeihan is over hyped. Not as smart as people think. If you can't dazzle them with your brilliance Baffle them with your Bull shit.

What does the genius PZ say about the election now??? He needs some serious TDS deprogramming. If he turns out to be right I’ll come back and give him props for his prediction. .

@freeheeler09

15 күн бұрын

Peter tried to be apolitical and base his analyses on history, economics and demographics. Ideological extremists on both the left and right have a hard time with people who don’t let themselves be blinded by ideology.

If you can have a global humiliation, every second of this conflict has been a global humiliation for Putin , i mean really, there must be a very high bar for humiliation in Russia.🙃

The they don't do tech well again... they copy very well.... but cannot do on they're own... that would threaten they're haves....

What if China immigrated 500 million young people from the third world to work the economy?

Peter thank you very much for your very clear and understandable assessment! I am continually sharing your information!

Peter speaks so quickly as if that lends credibility… at no point does he really identify any weakness in the current state of the US economy or its equivalent issues with demographics, labour and intellectual capital. (US will always be greatest, China, Russia bad, can only lose… US unbeatable)… Slow down on every sentence buddy, it will make a difference (it’s like Neil Degrass Tyson v Carl Sagan)… one is arrogant, one is a teacher… Peter is arrogant, settle petal… don’t speak down to people as if we are ignorant. As a counterpoint, globalisation is not new, it’s a very US centric viewpoint… globalisation was prevalent in the colonial era, England, the Netherlands (Dutch), France, Portugal, “Germany” etc., all established global empires, the US simply repeated that behaviour through economic colonialism… that’s just a variation on the status quo. Population decline in the developed world is a function of affluence, avarice and arrogance, as wealth and health of the middle class increases the more people want and less that they need to spend to support having lots of children, the more healthy a population the less need there is for a large family to bring in income simply to survive, and the more collective bargaining competes against capital the more growth there is increase in income… none of these factors are a result of US economic strength, that was just a catalyst for acceleration. The analysis is initially very focused on Peter’s perception of China’s economic and demographic weakness but fails to recognise the same dynamics in all tier one countries, the US included. All of those countries require increasing population growth to keep growing their economies, that’s the fundamental premise of Capitalism. I don’r argue against the benefits of Capitalism but it is xenophobic/religious exclusion that underpins the collapse of access to labour and growth in the numbers of consumers. In that sense way Peter’s analysis describes China’s fundamental aversion to ‘foreign’ labour and capital inflows (I.e. globalism but a Xenophobic intent to ‘take’ but never an intent to ‘share’). The US and Europe are facing the same fundamental issue, they want growth but not foreign ethnic labour and , irrelevant of their need… consumers are specifically not welcomed… Japan is the most obvious global example xenophobia v demographic collapse. I agree with some of the analysis but to suggest China is doomed is too simplistic, in a connected world that is simply a market opportunity, time will tell… it’s a fascinating era. So let’s summarise the assumptions: 1: Xi dies, something happens, incompetent people take control. I think that’s unrealistic. 2. China currently produces low end consumer products based on a competitive advantage of low cost labour but is incapable of moving up the value scale. Japan has proved that is a successful strategy. Government subsidies are supporting industry… mmm like the US agriculture subsidies fundamentally underpin the very survival of that sector, without those subsidies US agriculture would simply be unable to to compete in the domestic market, let alone in the global market. These arguments lack any sort of substance, politically motivated, and unable to recognise the paradox and the parallels with Japan post WWII from… “Japanese stuff is cheap crap, to hey it’s cheap but not really crap, better than the stuff we make here…”… And the we get the concepts of inevitable failure of Russian and China’s conflict strategies, Peter’s analysis are wildly optimistic about competence and capability.., a whole other discussion Short story, slow the heck down.

The debate + prosecution of Trump only solidified the republican base.

Talk about global destruction. Is it too late to cease Ai? Will everyone be… laid off by Ai? Suffering Ai jobloss for years? Swell robotics doing everything? Then everyone made slaves for an Ai new world order?

Peter just waves his hands and declares the Chinese incapable. Its true that Chinese manufacturing USED to be primarily low value-added, but they have been the worlds manufacturing hub for 25 frantic years. They have also developed tremendous technical sophistication. Witness BYD and electric cars. Or solar panel technology. And politically, Peter again waves his hands and suggests all the smart people were purged, and China can't address its issues. This is very wishful thinking.

One sided view. Not providing true picture.

I've been following Mr. Zeihan for 6 years. He will entice you with his confidence and bold statements, and with good skills in presentation. However, nearly all of his predictions are incorrect and what's worse, he's clearly a shill for the 3 letter agencies. It really is that simple. I can list all of the incorrect predictions, but if you doubt it, just keep following him (at your peril).

@freeheeler09

15 күн бұрын

Yogi Berra said “Making predictions is hard, especially about the future.”

@freeheeler09

15 күн бұрын

Peter knows that a significant fraction of his predictions will be wrong. But even the best batters in baseball only get on base a third of the time. I disagree with Peter’s predictions on agricultural productivity and resource shortages; I’m much more of a doomer. Peter is unique in having the courage to put himself out there. And the great value of his predictions is the serious conversations they start.

Can't feed on production or investment... be like termites ? End of video, but if no one cares about young you run out ....i wish i had kids in the early 80s priced out and able to keep my thing in my pants...

This guy is no expert 😂

Soon as it gets to @ 39:20 just quit.

Peter predicted bit coin would be on it way to less than zero.... $57000 +

Zeihan is lower version of Gordon Chang with worse and less education.

Peter is lying and in this whole podcast he didn't mention anything about defence corridor of US, effects of petro - dollar which gave rise to infinite minting of dollars. Today it has stopped.

Is one “solution” for China to adopt a “Lebensraum” policy to its fertile neighbors to the south?

I think this is pompous crap. In the long run, globalization will grow. Human migration has been going on for over a hundred thousand years. Human trade around the world has been going on for over 40,000 years, ever since people were living as tribes, not nation-states. People innately understand the economic benefits of global trade and migration, and will continue to do so, with or without nation-states, as long as it is humanly possible and economically beneficial.

PZ is so far off on SE Asia I can't believe it. I live here, have for over a decade. The corruption and the influence of the military and Oligarchs is entrenched. Also, the demographics, especially Thailand, are almost as bad as China. PZ is all over the map and I would question/test any of his observations by plumbing alternative opinions. He's provocative but blows a lot of smoke!

@johndamascus6039

17 күн бұрын

See my recent post. I've followed him for years. He's a charlatan who gets or grifts via the three letter agencies. None of his predictions of any import are correct. He is also totally indifferent to the complete cultural destruction of the USA, because he's been chosen due to rainbow status (few are aware of that reality and strategy by the handlers).

Brits as so much not enough young and why it's global as to why

Peter will never say anything bad about the military or nsa or cia.

@Brockliy

19 күн бұрын

??? that’s not his job my guy

@firefly9838

19 күн бұрын

They are evil... but they are necessary evil... and he knows that

@CentauriSphere

19 күн бұрын

so what

@Brockliy

18 күн бұрын

@@firefly9838 what does evil mean? do you honestly think every person working in these agencies are bad people? they’re everyday americans my god the conspiracy brain rot is insane

Peter has never been right about anything. One of the biggest grifters around.

This man, is so deluded.

@bellakrinkle9381

7 күн бұрын

Mental.😮

Talk about complete misinformation!

There is no historical case of a technological society with electricity collapsing. We live in a world where economists pretend that planned obsolescence is not happening.

@somika87

12 күн бұрын

Societies with electricity are not that old in historical terms. What is your point?

@psikeyhackr6914

12 күн бұрын

@@somika87 That using historical examples to talk about modern societies is nonsense. Only since WWII could leaders use television to BS their citizens.

Peter is smart, well informed, but he doesn't do nuance because it's bad "tv". Peter is VERY good at what he does. He is a generalist. Which means he only reports on the broadest strokes. He might know the nuance and detailed perspectives... but you don't hear that from him. It's important that anyone listening to him understands this. The best example what him saying Ireland has no agriculture, or too little agriculture. In the broadest sense, an argument could be made for this. But the details reveal that the Irish agricultural "brand" is a huge money maker. Also regarding Russia, Biden has squandered at least one Ukrainian chance for victory by worrying too much about "escalation management". Had Biden let you Ukraine win by giving it what it needed in the window of opportunity, Russia would be out of 90% of non Crimea Ukraine and would be negotiating what to do with Crimea. Instead 100,000s of more deaths.

@chrishooge3442

19 күн бұрын

Russia always had to lose slowly or they would escalate. You've got the benefit of hindsight...as do I. Putin stuck his hand into a wood chipper and now it's chewed up to his shoulder. His economy is wrecked. The Russian military and it's reputation is wrecked. Nobody wants Russian military equipment now...because it's shown to be inferior. Meanwhile some 500,000 men have been killed or catastrophically wounded. Another 1+ million have fled the country. Russia's demographics are on a terminal decline. This ends the same as 1917.

@LiveWellUkraine

19 күн бұрын

​@brijac04 I'm not aware of any Irish cattle farms that are not grass fed. They may grain finish. So, I'm not sure what grain they would need to grow. Also, the US imports a large percentage of our food. Even though we actually are "food secure " if we needed to be. Many people don't realize that farm subsidies serve a national security function. All that to say this... Ireland is food secure or close to it. Ireland's big problems are immigration and being a wealthy nation, only on paper. It's an accounting trick. The "Double Irish" is no more. Inflation/housing is destroying the middle class. Whether they have to import some grain is the least of their worries.

Peter nailed Trump and the failings of Republican Party which I’ve voted down the line since 1996. You can’t be a Republican, beat up on republicans holding different ideas, then expect those republicans to come out for you in November. I’m not for democrats, I voting against maga.

For someone who gets so much right, Peter is clueless concerning President Trump and the Jones Act.

@CyanTeamProductions

19 күн бұрын

I can understand how he could be wrong about Trump but how is he wrong on the Jones act specifically?

@rjsisco6056

19 күн бұрын

@@harrymaciolek9629 I’m sure his analysis of Trump as person/president is spot on; I pray he’s right about Trumps candidacy. Trump is an abomination. It’s funny that you think he’s wrong about the Jones act when those with expertise in maritime logistics (c.f. KZreadr “What’s going on with shipping”) are in 100% agreement with Zeihan. Besides being a perfect example of the dunning Kruger effect, it seems that you are a Trumper. A.k.a. neo fascist non-American

@harrymaciolek9629

19 күн бұрын

@@CyanTeamProductions For a better explanation than I can give I refer you to the “What’s Going on with Shipping” channel. But it’s mainly national security implications.

@rjsisco6056

19 күн бұрын

@@harrymaciolek9629 I follow that channel to and you’re oversimplifying Sals take on Zeihan’s take kzread.info/dash/bejne/e4KNuaONiqyWdM4.htmlsi=EMAo-OUDJPJWnx8A

@ShowboatHK

19 күн бұрын

Yep. He needs to stay in his lane.

With A.I. and well over 2 million engineers in China, I'm sorry but calling for the demise of China is so premature.

@chrisperkins7331

10 күн бұрын

The problem with your thought is that AI and 2 million engineer cant fix the problem that all western stysled economies have. That is, the idea that on a planet of limited resourceses endless growth is possible; Humanity has created a life style that nature can't support. If natures recycleing capasity colapses than we go back to the stone age.

WHERE DOES THE CONVICTED FELLON CRAP COME FROM? You like zoo courts?

@TheVeritas2100

18 күн бұрын

LOL! Zeihans gets his Talking Points from the DNC and the WH daily ... the only thing is is allowed to do is to Pick & Choose which ones to PARROT that day ! 🙂

The Europeans had no choice but to stand between us and the soviets they could not move. We did not have to convince them.

I live in Russia, and i like Peter, but i hate him for using "security" and "defend" when talking about Russia. Russia never felt insecurity. Moscow wants to expand the empire that's all

cia point of view

@jonathanaustinstern1

19 күн бұрын

better than the CCP point of view

@firefly9838

19 күн бұрын

Evil but necessary evil like bane said

Zeihan is losing all credibility with this election analysis 🤦🏼‍♂️🤦🏼‍♂️🤦🏼‍♂️

@matth2377

19 күн бұрын

One doesn’t have anything to do with the other. His election analysis doesn’t have anything to do with his global demographic analysis and vice versa.

@ddoppster

19 күн бұрын

Says a Trumper I'd wager. Who else would sound that invested?

@listener523

19 күн бұрын

@@matth2377 It shouldn't but it does. Effect his credibility that is. And I say this as someone who owns most of his books and generally agrees with his model. But his dogshit takes on domestic politics hurt his credibility. Because when you present stupid theories on an area outside your expertise? Anyone knowledge in thay area is going to discount your knowledge.

@paperandmedals8316

19 күн бұрын

🙄what don’t you wait for it to play out to decide how off he is. I find him spot on. I’m moderate republican voting democrat. Not for Dems, against maga.

@listener523

19 күн бұрын

@@paperandmedals8316 And I am sure that your wife's boyfriend is very proud of you. But that's not the position Zeihan put forward.