People Are Still Too Worried About A Recession | BCG Chief Economist Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak
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Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at vaneck.com/MOATFG.
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Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
00:46 Economic False Alarms Over Past 5 Years
05:44 The False Recession Signal of 2022
19:36 VanEck Ad
20:17 What Is The Cause Of So Much Economic Pessimism?
26:26 Are Sovereign Debt Levels A Threat To Economy?
39:56 Permissionless III Ad
40:54 AI And Labor Productivity
54:04 How To Prepare For Actual Material Economic Threats
01:00:52 What Are The False Signals Of 2024?
01:06:25 Geopolitical Risks
01:13:10 U.S. / China Tensions
01:17:22 Black Swan: Solar Flare
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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Forward Guidance is sponsored by Van Eck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at vaneck.com/MOATFG
We’re in a recession. It’s not that we’re too worried. It’s that we are being lied to.
@jjoonathan7178
28 күн бұрын
Hope you weren't putting your money where your mouth is. If so... my condolences.
@BatmanBoss
28 күн бұрын
But models and stuff! Numbers and models and stuff say everything is great!
@1ntrcnnctr608
28 күн бұрын
prepare for solar flare!!!!
@fernmoss-456
28 күн бұрын
People who makes less than 75k a year in coastal cities are absolutely in recession. Cost of living is through the roof.
@dogetaxes8893
28 күн бұрын
I swear this statement comes from a beartard pretty much every year, and then when a recession does occur they move the goal posts and start calling for a second Great Depression. It’s the bears bread and butter.
Payroll survey shows people having 2-3 jobs and people who didnt want to work being forced back into the work place.
As a person with considerable visibility across much of the manufacturing sector east of the Mississippi, I can say with certainty that there has been considerable weakness in B2B and B2C business since mid-Q1. I've seen medium-large companies do large layoffs, be late paying bills, freeze engineering spend on new projects, and reduce/delay orders for input components. This is widespread, not isolated to specific sub-sectors or regions. The financial professional types keep pushing the "all is well" narrative, but as a 'boots on the ground' guy I must strongly disagree. I have my theories to explain the disparity, but that'd be a book of a reply.
@l.christoffersen7502
28 күн бұрын
Most of my portfolio is biotech and I've been getting slaughtered all year. We're definitely in a recession in some areas, but it's very uneven, the AI bubble is sucking up a lot of the money while other sectors and small cap stocks are hurting. It's easy to look at the overall average and say we're not in a recession but when reality kicks in and the AI narrative has to take a setback I think we might finally see a correction in some of these insane valuations among the large tech companies that are carrying the market.
@coop-us7tp
28 күн бұрын
@@l.christoffersen7502 Biotech will recover nicely when rate cuts begin
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@HTAlexis
27 күн бұрын
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27 күн бұрын
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27 күн бұрын
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27 күн бұрын
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27 күн бұрын
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Do you think XAI44X will pump before ETH?
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@kristii_86
28 күн бұрын
She's mostly interacts on Telegrams, using the user-name...
@kristii_86
28 күн бұрын
@WhitneyEston
@AnthonyFisher951
28 күн бұрын
Reason i invest in the crypto market; to make my money work for me, to prevent inflation from eroding my savings.
@CatherineMason425
28 күн бұрын
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@PaoloGiordano-k6n
28 күн бұрын
Building a good investment portfolio is more complex so I would recommend you seek Whitney support.
Price to Sales are nearly twice what they were at the 2007 peak, before the giant crash. I don't see how that means that people are worried about any recession today. They are obviously buying more stocks, without worry.
this is why consultants aren't investors. right here.
@josxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
18 күн бұрын
crazy right? the amount of nothingness that is heard. consultant myself here
This guy just chooses not to believe what real people say (household survey) and instead believes cooked books.
@bpb5541
26 күн бұрын
Well said. GDP, CPI, Umeployment all of it have been cooked.
Coastal cities in Liberal jurisdictions are in a recession. Midwest states in Conservative jurisdictions are not in a recession. The rest of the cities vary, but follow a similar pattern to the Coastal vs. Midwest cities.
I feel like he's dressing it up as "Judgement call," but actually just advocating for gobbly goop. lol
This is fine
@dialecticalmonist3405
28 күн бұрын
That guy is living in another world.
I think Jack was spot on in emphasizing the importance of the myriad of data that is available to investors about markets & the economy and the role that it plays in distorting reality. This growing universe of data as well as the wide availability of said data has created a paradox whereby we are more confused than ever about reality when it seems like we should be able to precisely predict say where the Dow will be trading six months from now or what nonfarm payrolls will be this friday. Phillipps point about the motivation of journalists is accurate, no doubt, but journalists have acted this way since time immemorial. General confusion seems to be on the rise and I think this paradox plays a large part in it
This guy knows nothing about the real world. spending is up because we have to buy over priced food & basic services we must have. look at what the actual customer facing businesses are saying about consumer spending.
@SP-cx2qi
28 күн бұрын
The numbers are all showing things are going up, but it could actually be that your purchasing power is going down. I believe prices are actually showing currency devaluation.
@dialecticalmonist3405
28 күн бұрын
He lives in another world. It's crazy.
@bpb5541
26 күн бұрын
Look up the small buisness survey... it was bad, really bad.
Wage growth was only strong in the 18-26 yo age range. people with homes and children are getting wrecked.
@davidmann2524
28 күн бұрын
And it's still not enough to keep up witu the needs section of CPI so they are getting hammered the most...pretty much anyone that hasn't owned a home for longer than 10 years, is asset rich, or is upper 20% of income is getting killed.
Thank you
Great discussion. 🇺🇸 Diversify in Quality. 👍🏼
I'd be more convinced if he said yes public debt is high but here's why it's not a problem.
1:14:00 Latin America’s ISI (import substitution industrialization) is the historical example. Yes we can make all these goods but it’s a question of whether we have a competitive advantage. It also depends how industrialization is implemented there were mostly failures but some successes in Latin America when there was adequate domestic competition. The issue I see with build back better and chips act is that it’s repeating past mistakes and not creating enough competition. So we may end up with industries that produce goods domestically but aren’t particularly good at it so they can’t compete outside of the domestic market. So you take money from productive sectors and transfer to unproductive industry. End result in that scenario could be higher inflation. I think Boeing may be a good example of why the US has lost its way. One company with no competitors is going to not produce planes where the doors don’t fall off midair due to perverse incentives - why should I produce better quality if I’m unlikely to lose market share.
We are in a recession right now. We have been in one since Dec 2023.
Anyone who asks their own questions and then incorrectly answers them in the same sentence are usually not credible and are stretching to convince their audience.
F!cking bullish!t from start to finish. A cheerleader for the corporate America.
how on earth is nominal gdp growth exceeding nominal interest rates of debt levels now >.< debt to gdp is a criteria for downgrade by S&P. Gosh this guy is deluded...
@bpb5541
26 күн бұрын
13 of the last 15 countries lost reserve status if they went over 130% debt to GDP. The offical number put us above 120% right now. I think it is way worse. I don't believe their numbers. What this guy is talking about is moot.
Is this guy suggesting that inflation is NOT 30+% ? I have no idea what he is even trying to say. It's like he's living in his own private world. In which world is inflation not 30%???
Hindsight is 20/20. His explanations are just way too convenient after the fact. Who says things like this as it really happens? No one.
🇺🇸👍🏼
Clearly XAI44X was a right choice. Hope to learn more from you this is pure knowledge
Another example of dog Ford incredible business acumen next he'll be causing the whole province to close down
Always felt BCG is deluded by aggregate data...this just proves it lol
A consultant? Too vibey for my liking.
Uber more expensive then normal?? NOT HERE
@DoughnutswithSprinkles-wq4vo
28 күн бұрын
He's right about the relative prices in NYC though.
Hamas war? Omg
HARD LANDING in 2025 😞
XAI44X beats all the other ones right now
go buy the median house, and pay the bill for having a child in a hospital, and tell me we arent in a depression
No recession in eurozone? Bruh Right wing parties literally rising because of hardship
Another St Onge
This guy is living in a fantasy world and most models are BS.
@bpb5541
26 күн бұрын
Exactly. I wonder how rosy all those models look right before the Dot Com Crash or the GFC. I am sure 99% of them said things look awesome.
These clowns are to worried about Bitcoin.
@bpb5541
26 күн бұрын
What is there to worry about? It is the greatest preforming asset of all time because the Government has no control of it. It is outside their corrupt system. Those that hate on it... don't own any of it and those that love it but don't own it are hoping it comes down in price during a crash so they can buy it.
@SilverCpa
26 күн бұрын
@@bpb5541 just lol. I can't even. Y'all are brain dead. Outside government control yet massive manipulated by like ten whales and corrupt exchanges, wow what an improvement! You just proved my point for me with the price comment. Bitcoin is greater fool theory incarnate. It's done shit for months even tho there's like fifty ETFs now. Buying Buttcoin . Imagine what happens when they start selling.
XAI44X is the future and more than just another project, it has all of it
XAI44X is for small and big bags the best one. In 2024 finally we see big comebacks of real names
If you people know XAI44X you know the future, it is green! Green and going up
$XAI44X will 500 or 1000x I think
The XAI44X bullrun is where 10x 20x 50x all is possible. Keep thinking about how that is possible with BTC or ETH, because it is not.
XAI44X is the new and fresh AI coin! Awesome
XAI44X making ATH after ATH 🔥🔥
XAI44X made it, finally it is there and they have one main difference to common memes
Omg so bullish on XAI44X! ATH next month? 🔥
Forget memecoins. The next king in house is XAI44X
XAI44X is the new and fresh AI coin! Awesome