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Duality of mind: biases, judgements stopping us from being Antifragile.

we have so many biases we cannot keep them straight, and in general we're not encouraged to think in the first place ... we end up working more for the things we are told we need to have, instead of working for the things that reveal the realization of ourselves and our curiosities and passions and good will towards humanity ... peace all

Loss aversion is only valid provided the decision-maker hasn't had loss, i.e. the avoid taking risk that has potential upside. But once decision-maker has already experience losses, decision-maker tends to take more risk to recover the losses, which ends up as sunk-cost bias or bias of escalating commitments.

@clumsydad7158

Жыл бұрын

the flip side is winning is addictive, and communities built on emergent phenomena, like the crypto expansion, was hard to walk away from. the thrill of gains/growth plus the identity with a community is potent ... it's basically a fundamental basis of human life/socialization/inclusion

Im glad you left up the one graphic. Makes it easier to keep the conversation's points in mind. Great work.

@PickingNuggets

10 ай бұрын

Thank you so much !!

Interstîng! Nice & intriguing way to analyse behaviour and bisases!

The content you deliver is always amazing

@PickingNuggets

Жыл бұрын

thank you !!

Man these videos are so great! Keep up the great work!

@PickingNuggets

Жыл бұрын

thank you !!

Hey! Good job with this channel. I've discovered Naval through it and watched a shit ton of his stuff already. Thanks

@PickingNuggets

Жыл бұрын

Thank you !

Thank you for such an amazing video and notes

@PickingNuggets

Жыл бұрын

You're very welcome!

This guy is a genius...he may not be always correct....I can relate to most of what he says from my experience in these past 72 years ..one thing I believe is that change is the norm ..if we can't adapt...we are screwed!!! Just sayin'

@rythmicwarrior

Жыл бұрын

Yes, change is the only constant.

@yoursubconscious

Жыл бұрын

wise advice all of us should be reminded of! 🙏

@GBOAC

Жыл бұрын

For which of his positions or statements he made do you feel he's incorrect?

@Anon-mb1um

Жыл бұрын

things can change pretty f***ing fast. the last two years proove me right. what's coming is truly the most dystopian nightmare people couldn't believe would exist. "You May Live To See Man-Made Horrors Beyond Your Comprehension" - Nikola Tesla.

Hey Picking nuggets please keep uploading these transformative videos! Also If I may; could you adjust the graphics (notes,etc…) because at times it becomes a lot on the screen and it can be hard to follow but I may be wrong and this could be my individual experience!

@PickingNuggets

Жыл бұрын

Thank you Jesse! I totally agree with your feedback. Im trying to improve the flow of the video by adding more images and keeping my reflections for the end

Awesome 💯 video keep up the work dude

@PickingNuggets

Жыл бұрын

thank you :)

THNx

KEEP IT UP ❤

@PickingNuggets

Жыл бұрын

Great work! Keep it up

@PickingNuggets

10 ай бұрын

Thanks, will do!

Quality content

Mr. Taleb, my favorite author!

Excellent content

@PickingNuggets

Жыл бұрын

thank you!

Great work! I try hard to use these biases on my channel. Very difficult mentally.

@PickingNuggets

Жыл бұрын

thank you :)

Lots of small risks with unknown possible upsides ✊ By the way when big oil companies search for new deposits of oil/gas they use same principle. They loose money many times on small scale but when they hit jackpot it pays for all previous losses and brings big profit 👍

@PickingNuggets

Жыл бұрын

interesting !

@TD05SSLegacy

Жыл бұрын

Lose money

@clumsydad7158

Жыл бұрын

the more catastrophes i've gone thru and survived, the more i see the most important thing is everyday mindset and health. to wake up and have a purpose and place and to realize some part of what you believe in ... yes it is prudent to have reserves for the future, but the essential quality of life is to 'be available' and in the flow of human productivity/creativity/relationality on a daily basis. we have so many mental health problems in our society because so many feel unwanted and unneeded in fundamental ways, as humans being.

13:30 great taleb quote

My House is asymmetrical. I love it ❣️

These videos and the authors respective books are remarkably similar and valuable and insightful and meaningful

@PickingNuggets

Жыл бұрын

thank you !

Thanks for bringing these gems

@PickingNuggets

Жыл бұрын

my pleasure :)

This channels growing and rightfully so

@PickingNuggets

Жыл бұрын

Thank you :)

Amazing. It's different styles the world class content thanks. Please! Can u make a content combination for a new entenpaneur.

@PickingNuggets

Жыл бұрын

Thank you :) will do!

2 points. Your have to have money in order to risk it. An unstable environment creates unstable people and unstable families.

@clumsydad7158

Жыл бұрын

that is true, and as our society is atomized there is not much collective support for failures, in the sense most people are expected to be joe paycheck and not risk ... well, it does take all types to make a world

@gabbar51ngh

Жыл бұрын

Stable environment creates more vulnerable societies. The modern day weak families exist due to lower competitive pressures. Welfare by design reduces the competitive pressure and creates problems in the long run.

@clumsydad7158

Жыл бұрын

@@gabbar51ngh i think every aspect of life has two tiers or a duality, so some basic provisions for opportunity and equity are needed, and after that one is on one's own, so to speak. the problem with our contemporary societies of nationalism, racism, exploitation etc. is we purport to have liberty and equal markets, but it's not the case ... we always need to move to more generative and productive systems in a plural sense

@gabbar51ngh

Жыл бұрын

@@clumsydad7158 There's definitely exploitation which exists due to overreach of government through unnecessary taxation you could say. While I don't agree with the notion of going full Libertarian. Taxation should be kept to minimum as much needed. A classic liberal model. Govt has a place and should provide some common goods but if it can be privatized and be more economically viable then it should be allowed. Space exploration is a good idea. Back then it was Taxpayer's money being used. Now if few billionaires want to risk their own money at it. It's better that way then. Government still plays a large role but hopefully we see more private participation and decentralisation as contrast to completely govt led.

@clumsydad7158

Жыл бұрын

@@gabbar51ngh i believe in decentralization and subsidiarity, but large scale distrust hampers these efforts, as does human susceptibility to manipulation for large desires, myths, and grandiose narratives. we're still barely out of feudalism as i see things, we'll see where it goes over next 2,000 years

Is it right to say this is also a big factor with addiction? You rather have loads of small positive effects while postponing the problem confrontrations than enduring the small negative effects we experience from life.

@PickingNuggets

Жыл бұрын

It would make sense!

I'm retired now but I never really gave a crap about money and I always seemed to have enough for what I needed. Never worried much about it.

Thaks i liked this good

Now that tells us a lot about “Human behavior on debt” And how debt which is technically as it’s programmed in our brains is a “loss” makes people on loans or on debt more prone to burnout, stress and lack of focus! They are in unhappy situation that might have been avoided if they decided at some point earlier to not do it, however as they explained Losing a Ton of money at once Which for me resembles “Debt” !!! Does that make sense for anyone here on debt or been in debt or I’m biased!??

@clumsydad7158

Жыл бұрын

any society which foments so many addictive habits and willingly manipulates people into them will also promote debt as a solution ... i often think of future societies as ones of abundance, but that takes a collective mindset and trust we haven't yet sorted out. humans are always in the process of negotiating between freedom of choice and collective responsibilities,,, too much of either presents stability problems long-term, and it's not likely any clear path will be resolved soon. it's likely in hard to fathom ways a nearly eternal struggle

People prefer echo chambers. And not much else... collective insanity is what defines humanity.

@clumsydad7158

Жыл бұрын

humans are currently unfortunate in the sense we have too much information, it's overwhelming, and disturbing psychologically. our fragmented world systems are a type of chaos, and danger ... it takes a proper education and mindset to be in the world under these circumstances, but access to and promotion of that awareness is scant

Talking about biases: what is it called when you talk and write entire books about black swan events and the importance of being antifragile yet when we face such events you start panicking on social media like a little kid?

@christheother9088

Жыл бұрын

Oh, you noticed that too? Yeah, it did not look good. He's a cocktail party genius.

All human conginitive biases are highly useful to navigate our lives intuitively and efficiently. They work fine 95+% of the time. For small things that bias works well. For big things (which happen less than 5% of time), we should guard against coginitive biases.

@calmexit6483

Жыл бұрын

Where are you getting those statistics from?

@sp3815

10 ай бұрын

maybe the worked well in savnnah.not now

For those who want to implement stock investing strategies from these videos: Have a small number of stocks in portfolio Have more index linked ETFs than stocks Invest regularly with constant amount each month and number of units variable (most people do constant units)

@novideostoday

Жыл бұрын

No. If you can afford to lose money, you can take higher risk. If you only have 1000 to invest, it makes sense to put it all on stocks. Not ETFs. But if you have 10,000,000, you wanna do the opposite. You can afford to lose 1000. You cant afford to lose 10 million. You guys never understand this and will always stay poor.

Losing a smaller amount over year's in any activity that requires skills also erodes at self confidence in their skillset.

awesome

every processor I studied with: Don't use too many words on a slide. No one will read them. this professor: Hold my beer. 😂

Prospect theory is not workable in between the subject or happenance instead once the subject is over or the plot is over otherwise for a normal human being what matters most ?? It's how he or she can contain or manage or minimize loss

How Antifragility & asymmetry are same?

What are the three things?

Hi, can I ask what software you use to create this illustration? Thank you.

@PickingNuggets

Жыл бұрын

Canva! I made a tutorial -- kzread.info/dash/bejne/dZxstKqHfL2zkps.html

@mujtabajuya8499

Жыл бұрын

@@PickingNuggets Hi. I meant the main video, not the thumbnails. The way you present the ideas is very good. That is why I asked.

@PickingNuggets

Жыл бұрын

@@mujtabajuya8499 For all the illustrations i use Canva! And then for taking notes I use Google Keep, and for the video editing Imovie :)

Fuck... This is very very very good

@PickingNuggets

Жыл бұрын

thank you !

I picked a nugget by subscribing.

@PickingNuggets

Жыл бұрын

thanks :)

loose enough and you're out of the game. loss aversion is the logical choice for most people. the 4th bias is cherry picking.

Loss aversion is also the reason that you have to make 10 positive contributions at work to even out one mistake. It is complete crap.

4:02

Didn't watch because it started off with money. Money is a token. One should focus on reality.

Many of Kahneman's propositions are presented in isolation. Isolation of a starting position for instance. This means if I have a million dollars I am going to have completely different reaction to a potenetial loss of $1000 than a poor man. The worst thing you can do for anyone, is give him a Nobel prize,. Nobel prize for peace say to Barak Obama.

When this guy had a book to sell, all he mentioned was black swans. When a black swan finally did show up, he was nowhere to be seen. I guess he didn't have another book to sell.

The greatest illusion is the illusion of “I am” all else is subsidiary to that.

Amen brother, it's not thier money they're losing they are losing Americans money. Riase that debt ceiling to $100 Trillion bankers need a raise that OUR lineage will have to pay for for centuries to come.

“All” does not equal 95%

If you lose a million over time you still get to spend some, if you lose it in one go you dont

hahaha, deo loi keo loi dung duoc, hahhaha rat muon choi lai voi tao nhung danh bat luc :D toi nghiep.

"Crooks of randomness"... learn to recognize

Support your content with $Thanks

It seems buying the lottery is a positive black swan thing?

@PickingNuggets

9 ай бұрын

Nope. The upside is limited and known

Ironically, Women have been doing this since the beginning of time. They call it "spontaneity". My only question when it comes to asymmetry is concerning allocation.

@vidalskyociosen3326

Жыл бұрын

That’s why the MGTOW movement growing bigger everyday, research it and female nature they called it Red Pill knowledge I believe.

@sharris3480

Жыл бұрын

Relax before you choke on that bitterness.

If a Nobel Laureate doesn't get Talib, where do I stand?

@clumsydad7158

Жыл бұрын

little by little ... the world reveals itself to those who watch

why would you stop eating protein, what a bunch of crap

@user-vy5uy9fo8p

Жыл бұрын

Fasting is good though, dont know benefit for full vegan.

@ebrahimparpia169

Жыл бұрын

theres no benefit to eating fibre and vegetation, our body cant ferment fibre like monkeys, cows and horses, which turn fibre to fat using a cecum, we dont have that organ so we rely on fat from animal nutrition, all pastoralist tribes live happier, healthier lives than people in cities.

Nissan Teleb’s idea of embracing randomness and adventure rather than micromanagement kzread.info/dash/bejne/Y6Vhpdebn9Creso.html

People writing letters to Charlie Munger after this video 📈📈📈

@PickingNuggets

Жыл бұрын

hahaha I thought maybe I should do that haha

@Quickeasyguitarlessons

Жыл бұрын

What would you write to him?

@PickingNuggets

Жыл бұрын

@@Quickeasyguitarlessons just thank him for sharing his unfiltered ideas with the world

@Quickeasyguitarlessons

Жыл бұрын

Agree. He seems like a more straightforward guy unlike Buffet. 👍 Btw great to see your channel growing. Them subs are joining pretty substantially 💪

Please don't incoherently concatenate lots of different extracts!

@clumsydad7158

Жыл бұрын

... sounds like your average media report/article these days 🙂

We make two kinds of descisions based on: 1. certainty or 2. uncertainty The descisions we make, can have 2 different outcomes. We were right or wrong. 1. certainty: a. right or b. wrong 2. uncertainty: a. right or b. wrong So there are 4 possible outcomes. I expect a few people to have some issues with 1.b. How can we make descisions, based on certainty when we're wrong? I think these kinds of descisions are the worst for us. We should absolutely be right about the future when we're certain, eh? Because we will likely have no backup plan, and no fallback strategy in place. Being wrong will cost us dearly. “It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so” -- Mark Twain As humans, we crave certainty. We crave certainty so much that we're quickly prepared to belive lies, myths and fallacies to ease our minds. When we - descide, with certainty but are wrong - we got to that point for a reason. Often, those with power and influence shoe-horn everyone into line. To improve 'confidence', which is so important to politicos (and even in the economy to some people!); especially around election time. For example, the media effectievely made up lies about COVID by making sure only one side to the story was told: the lockdown story. We become 'certain'. So a bunch of mathematical models, based on bad data, and bad forecasting were sold are the likeliest outcomes! BTW: To paraphrase some US politician: - We know what we know - We know what we don't know - We don't know what we don't know. The unknown unknowns! I don't think the unknown unknowns are such a big issue for us because we tend to stay flexible in our response to such circumatances.

I am new to the stock market. Every stock that I bought so far, I was out of luck because I bought them when they were expensive. I feel I missed out on all the stock opportunities so far for the tech stocks. I believe having 75K yearly income would be a good investment so I want to plug all my savings into the stock market. I know this sounds a bit dull but I would like to know if I should learn investing or let somebody else (more capable like a FA) do it for me? Please share your thoughts. I am kind of tired of searching for a good stock to buy and losing all the good opportunities

@miaejaita7119

Жыл бұрын

Even with the right technique and assets some investors would still make more than others, as an investor, you should've known that by now, nothing beats experience and that's final, personally I had to reach out to a stock expert for guidance which is how I was able to grow my account close to a million, withdraw my profit right before the correction and now I'm buying again

@miaejaita7119

Жыл бұрын

The broker I'm in touch with is *ASHLEY AIRAGAHI . I came across her in a Bloomberg interview and got in touch with her. You can use something else. For me, her strategy works hence my result. She provides entry and exit point for the securities I focus on

@amifutru2936

Жыл бұрын

Same here, i will praise Mrs Ashley over and over again because she has great skills, i started with $2,400 and after 2week i received a returns of $9,150 then i continue with her ever since she has been delivering.

@helenlewis4068

Жыл бұрын

I traded with her, The profit are secured and over a 100% return on investment directly sent to your wallet.

@ashleighking9073

Жыл бұрын

Whats~~ App 👆👆

It's not like you can choose to experience all the bad at once and all the good spread out, life is random, so pretty elemental useless information.

@DrRussell

Жыл бұрын

Appreciate the speakers may be more abstract than we would like, but wasn’t there a key lesson? To introduce randomness which entails asymmetry of downside vs upside to mitigate loss aversion cognitive bias? Sorry, you may know all this already.

@DrRussell

Жыл бұрын

Appreciate you making me think about this more

chinese torture .. what !!??

@VisiblyJacked

Жыл бұрын

Chinese water torture. The only torture is a drip of water but it drives you crazy.

I got as far as 67 seconds and....whom are you talking to?

I respect Nasim Taleb, but I disagree that knowing what your day looks like means you are dead, the more scheduling the more dead. Of course 100% scheduling takes the fun and adventure out of life but 0% scheduling means that you make no progress and are just bouncing off the walls. Surely this quote is taken out of context?

Ｐ𝐫Ｏ𝕞Ｏ𝓢ｍ

A “new normal” evolves from persistent, disseminated, low level changes, longitudinally.

It's wonder we can even hear Taleb with his 400 face masks and scuba gear on.

Please hire a graphic designer.

@lifebusinessproject

Жыл бұрын

Why?

@seanallenfenn

Жыл бұрын

@@lifebusinessproject there’s a lot of text on your videos which needs hierarchy. This isn’t meant to be negative criticism.

@daveyvane9431

10 ай бұрын

Please criticize stuff randomly

@smileitawaydude8882

7 ай бұрын

Introduce randomness and try to understand in his format 😂

@user-ic4ce8xb5v

6 ай бұрын

​​@@daveyvane9431It isn't random criticism though. You don't have to agree with it and it might not even be right, but it's constructive criticism intended to help the channel.

RAY DALIO, The changing World Order.

can't take this guy seriously anymore.

@HidingFromFate

Жыл бұрын

So what specifically set you off?

What a load of waffle.

What about healthy and poor.

He doesn't look like the picture of health to me...