Nassim Nicholas Taleb - The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, expert on risk and randomness, discusses "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable," presented by Harvard Book Store. Nassim Nicholas Taleb defines a "black swan" as a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. Black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. How can this phenomenon be better recognized and understood? This lecture contains strong language.
More lectures at forum-network.org.
This talk was taped on May 19, 2010.

Пікірлер: 78

  • @georgimmanuelnagel6603
    @georgimmanuelnagel66032 жыл бұрын

    This guy is just so marvelous. He is a remedy against the modern world.

  • @nazdalaan
    @nazdalaan3 жыл бұрын

    I’m listening July 2020, and we’re exactly the situation he was talking about 7 years ago.

  • @elijahroman170

    @elijahroman170

    2 жыл бұрын

    sorry to be offtopic but does anybody know of a trick to get back into an Instagram account? I was dumb forgot the account password. I would appreciate any tips you can give me.

  • @kaseelisha9155

    @kaseelisha9155

    2 жыл бұрын

    @Elijah Roman instablaster :)

  • @elijahroman170

    @elijahroman170

    2 жыл бұрын

    @Kase Elisha Thanks for your reply. I got to the site thru google and im in the hacking process now. Takes a while so I will get back to you later when my account password hopefully is recovered.

  • @elijahroman170

    @elijahroman170

    2 жыл бұрын

    @Kase Elisha it did the trick and I actually got access to my account again. I'm so happy! Thanks so much you really help me out :D

  • @kaseelisha9155

    @kaseelisha9155

    2 жыл бұрын

    @Elijah Roman no problem :)

  • @downtourth
    @downtourth8 жыл бұрын

    *_Fat Tony has a saying, "It's easier to scam people of billions then to scam them of thousands. It's a lot easier to fool the multitude than to fool a single person."_*

  • @martijjjjn
    @martijjjjn10 жыл бұрын

    This man has such an interesting view on things. It's mind blowing what he tells in all his speeches and books.

  • @carlosfernando8768

    @carlosfernando8768

    8 жыл бұрын

    Bom 8

  • @vimalcurio

    @vimalcurio

    3 жыл бұрын

    @@carlosfernando8768 wdym

  • @osmanguney7324
    @osmanguney73249 жыл бұрын

    Great Speech!

  • @HardikBhakhar
    @HardikBhakhar3 жыл бұрын

    Maestro seems well rested. I wish I read his books 10 years ago.🙏

  • @Senecamarcus

    @Senecamarcus

    3 жыл бұрын

    True. I think the same. I wish I knew about him 10 years ago.

  • @mas1085

    @mas1085

    Жыл бұрын

    @@Senecamarcus Same here

  • @yoloswag6242
    @yoloswag62423 жыл бұрын

    2:40 the funny thing with Taleb is he always experiences issues with technology while explaining antifragility In stanford lecture he spilled water on macbook, now he is getting major mic feedback :D

  • @GBHForumNetwork
    @GBHForumNetwork11 жыл бұрын

    The video is from May 2010.

  • @dalveerbansal1324
    @dalveerbansal132410 жыл бұрын

    I agree he does ramble abit, still has some good ideas

  • @aaronwimberleymbamsf5776
    @aaronwimberleymbamsf57763 жыл бұрын

    truly amazing=]

  • @elicitwildly
    @elicitwildly11 жыл бұрын

    Good lecture. He seemed so pompous at the beginning, but after the first few minutes, became much more charming. What's the deal with that?

  • @johnanderson2654
    @johnanderson26543 жыл бұрын

    I like the gaffer's tape on the microphone. It's an anti-fragile material.

  • @PeteThecurious100
    @PeteThecurious1008 жыл бұрын

    More complex equals more fragile ....interesting point but stands to reason. One ox + one wooden plough equals robust. hmm Risk: I choose the top line .....(but have a bolt hole for what is sure to come!)

  • @billpalombi
    @billpalombi3 жыл бұрын

    Starts at 1:25

  • @jimcuddy7407
    @jimcuddy74076 жыл бұрын

    resonance is funny i like it

  • @ethanoyamawang
    @ethanoyamawang11 жыл бұрын

    lol he said wtf wow he is my true mentor~!

  • @mahadiknaikjakati
    @mahadiknaikjakati11 жыл бұрын

    great person,deep insight of market,must master his ideas to be successful dr satish

  • @evankant5965
    @evankant596510 жыл бұрын

    If Taleb does not want individuals to pay for the miscalculations of "too big to fall" business, why did Clinton scrap the distinction between investment and savings Banks in the first place? Secondly, why do households borrow, and why did credit proliferate in the 1980s? Doesn't it have to do with income distribution in the economy?

  • @steveretiredandcranky
    @steveretiredandcranky5 жыл бұрын

    It's absolutely amazing how often the "experts" are dead ass wrong.

  • @user-dd5kx5md5o
    @user-dd5kx5md5o8 жыл бұрын

    Did he mention Fat Tony at 25:08?

  • @younesszaim3234
    @younesszaim32343 жыл бұрын

    "I can not hedge risk of epidemics" 45:43 - Hello Corona Virus, can you hear me ?

  • @Hammett849
    @Hammett84924 күн бұрын

    Most said word goes to "shmucks"!

  • @tannorpilatzke2375
    @tannorpilatzke237511 жыл бұрын

    Starts at @1:24

  • @benjaminfonseka4951
    @benjaminfonseka49519 жыл бұрын

    Black Swan = Breaking or end of a commonly accepted belief e.g. when the earth is flat - the sun rotates around the earth- type of beliefs are shattered.

  • @MaghrebProductions
    @MaghrebProductions3 жыл бұрын

    May 2021

  • @BG-bj1mf
    @BG-bj1mf3 жыл бұрын

    I thought it was my tinnitus getting worst.

  • @vimalcurio

    @vimalcurio

    3 жыл бұрын

    do you have

  • @tim53739
    @tim5373911 жыл бұрын

    That's his general demeanor; at least in his books. Very ireverant, prone to criticize others ect. it get's annoying at times but has value.

  • @shubhambiswas8627
    @shubhambiswas86273 жыл бұрын

    audio extremely low.

  • @xveredus
    @xveredus Жыл бұрын

    Rules of memetical nature

  • @billpalombi
    @billpalombi3 жыл бұрын

    Taleb begins at 1:25

  • @shortcutDJ
    @shortcutDJ5 жыл бұрын

    I thought this man wrote the script of the Black Swan movie i'm such a dumbass

  • @jogaleone7224
    @jogaleone72242 жыл бұрын

    every one of his jokes fell flat…i started feeling bad for him…i cant learn from people i feel bad for

  • @jonathanantoine4962

    @jonathanantoine4962

    Жыл бұрын

    No need to let the internet know you are an idiot, nobody care

  • @donaldc7954
    @donaldc79542 жыл бұрын

    Such an compelling talk ruined by the numpty who set up the audio. A real struggle to concentrate on what’s being said.

  • @Chrisdvc26
    @Chrisdvc2611 жыл бұрын

    That mic sound is driving me crazy

  • @tylerbrandon460

    @tylerbrandon460

    4 жыл бұрын

    Did they set up for a speech or a Latin American singer.

  • @mas1085

    @mas1085

    Жыл бұрын

    The video is 12 years old old tech back then

  • @johnbatchler8551
    @johnbatchler85513 жыл бұрын

    Black swan also applies to technology

  • @kinkokonko
    @kinkokonko11 жыл бұрын

    doesnt make much sense. If you need to apply the live cycle or a corporation to human life. Think Jimi Hendrix is going up Mozart is stable

  • @cristianmicu
    @cristianmicu Жыл бұрын

    3:45 sure professor taleb by the same logic lets return to the bronze age so we can avoid the majority of black swans

  • @user-rf1nk5ef8p

    @user-rf1nk5ef8p

    4 ай бұрын

    Jesus what troll are you, can’t even hide it

  • @lostinspace5127
    @lostinspace51279 жыл бұрын

    ok emotional Impact = blackswan events = too much noobs in the market = iam out of the game.

  • @MRTOWELRACK
    @MRTOWELRACK5 жыл бұрын

    Taleb often boasts about himself and mocks others, but besides that tiresome insecurity, Taleb offers some gems of wisdom, albeit inefficiently so. Still, Taleb relies too heavily upon pomp and ironically enough, his own antidotes when critiquing antidotes.

  • @coven-docx

    @coven-docx

    2 жыл бұрын

    thanks for saying it, haven't seen another person mention this...

  • @chiaroscuro1233
    @chiaroscuro12334 жыл бұрын

    Rewatching this as California electrical power monopoly goes into blackout

  • @timothyhilton3408
    @timothyhilton34084 жыл бұрын

    I have been known to read an entire book to get a few paragraphs of real wisdom, but this was unbearable.

  • @James-yl3kk
    @James-yl3kk11 жыл бұрын

    is it me or does he just rabble

  • @nparbat8182

    @nparbat8182

    4 жыл бұрын

    its just you.

  • @CV_CA
    @CV_CA2 жыл бұрын

    29:48 44:57 47:53 ops, hahhaha,,,,,

  • @mistax2k
    @mistax2k11 жыл бұрын

    haha

  • @ethanoyamawang
    @ethanoyamawang11 жыл бұрын

    lol So basically he said cnbc hosts are donkeys! lol

  • @TimGoth
    @TimGoth7 жыл бұрын

    I guess we know who's the schmuck here! I started to read "Black Swan" and couldn't stand it to finish it. Now I hear him talking it's even worst. He has interesting theories that I agreed with but how can you trust a judgment of such a person?! It's all clouded with anger, hate and jealousy. He is no less ignorant than all the people who he accuse of being so. What a miserable human being! I feel sorry for him.

  • @Stoney-Jacksman

    @Stoney-Jacksman

    6 жыл бұрын

    you seem kinda jelly..

  • @aidawarah4698
    @aidawarah46987 жыл бұрын

    His speech is so disorganized and full with "stuff like that" and "that stuff"' . Very disappointing for someone with a Ph.D. and what is so smart about his ideas? They are not robust themselves

  • @Deepskies1

    @Deepskies1

    3 жыл бұрын

    there is a full chapter in the Black Swan that talks about a mindset reflected by your comment, you are illustrating it perfectly.

  • @vimalcurio

    @vimalcurio

    3 жыл бұрын

    @@Deepskies1 lol

  • @screenerlook
    @screenerlook2 жыл бұрын

    You really have had to spent your whole professional life inside a university to go on a world stage with a hair like that!

  • @cristianmicu
    @cristianmicu Жыл бұрын

    if hes lecturing and he cant abstain to pronounce the f. word, then he' dont have any name, hes a nobody, and will stay a nobody, that also means that he has no respect for the audience or for himself either, ergo, a paria, nobody., , no matter how many books he writes. i made my opinions more..... robust, to stand the test of time and avoid black swans like taleb lecture in today's events

  • @devotionofunion
    @devotionofunion2 жыл бұрын

    Methods for Portfolio Robustness are at 41:30

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