'Much worse than the 1970s': Historian Niall Ferguson has a warning for investors

Top historian Niall Ferguson warned Friday that the world is sleepwalking into an era of political and economic upheaval akin to the 1970s - only worse.

Пікірлер: 949

  • @lucagreco1787
    @lucagreco1787 Жыл бұрын

    I wonder if people that experienced the 2008 crash had it easier because this market conditions are driving me to insanity, my portfolio has lost over $26500 this Nov. alone my profits are tanking and I'm don't see my retirement turning out well when I can't even grow my stagnant reserv.

  • @lucaswilliams9992

    @lucaswilliams9992

    Жыл бұрын

    @Abu.chowdhury I’m new to all this, heard it's a good time to buy and basically I've just got cash sitting duck in the bank and I’d really love to put it to good use seeing how inflation is at an all time-high, who is this coach that guides you, mind I look them up.

  • @raredreamfootage

    @raredreamfootage

    Жыл бұрын

    By portfolio I'm assuming you mean the "worth of your public stocks. If so, I would say focus more on the operational performance of the companies who represent those stocks than the paper value of the stock market.

  • @gerhard7323
    @gerhard7323 Жыл бұрын

    Love economics because nobody really knows anything.

  • @dragonflydreamer7658

    @dragonflydreamer7658

    Жыл бұрын

    They know exactly what they are doing, The problem is some times people and revolutions get in the way only to start the process all over again. First by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property.

  • @markleblanc172

    @markleblanc172

    Жыл бұрын

    Basically

  • @radar0412

    @radar0412

    Жыл бұрын

    Actually we're intentionally keeping you in the dark. But I wasn't supposed to tell you that.

  • @gregorysagegreene

    @gregorysagegreene

    Жыл бұрын

    Read my post above ... it takes a lot more work than the economists think.

  • @jiahan3849

    @jiahan3849

    Жыл бұрын

    Actually Niall Ferguson knows a lot more than most top economists. The reason? Economics is 1000 times more difficult than physics or chemistry.

  • @IAMBETTERTHANYYOU
    @IAMBETTERTHANYYOU Жыл бұрын

    It is gone, we lived through the zenith of our time.The corrupt government will take down this country like what happened to Rome. My condolence for anyone approaching retirement you may have concerns over whether your pension pot will stretch to cover the rising costs of living. Bad energy policy, bad foreign policy, bad regulatory policy , and insane fiscal policy.

  • @TruckeeFam

    @TruckeeFam

    Жыл бұрын

    50 and retiring early. I'm really concerned abt the future in all aspects of where we all going, in this breath finances ; how to stay afloat. I'm thinking about investing for the first time in the capital-market but how can i achieve all that given that the market has being a mess most of the year?

  • @MIchaelGuzman737

    @MIchaelGuzman737

    Жыл бұрын

    @@TruckeeFam I can relate to that on firsthand. I began with "THERESA MARY CHAMBLEE" whom is a fiduciary financial-advisor and my gains were guaranteed. In such instances, I would always recommend hiring an expert to guide you through unpredictable markets and simply provide you with indicators and tactics for determining when to join and exit the market.

  • @Americanpatriot723

    @Americanpatriot723

    Жыл бұрын

    @@MIchaelGuzman737 Please how can i reckon with such skillset? I'm seeking for a more effective investment approach on my savings, putting it to work because its getting killed due to inflation

  • @MIchaelGuzman737

    @MIchaelGuzman737

    Жыл бұрын

    @@Americanpatriot723 You can glance her name up on the internet .she's renowned and has quite a following. So it shouldn't be a hassle finding her

  • @Americanpatriot723

    @Americanpatriot723

    Жыл бұрын

    @@MIchaelGuzman737 Theresa really seem to know her stuff. I found her online-page, read through her resume, educational background, qualifications and it was really impressive. She is a fiduciary who will act in my best interest. So, I booked a session with her.

  • @tek6423
    @tek6423 Жыл бұрын

    I can envision double digit inflation. I’m 68 years old, I was a young family man trying to get my first mortgage back then (early ‘80’s). 9% adjustable mortgage, that jumped up twice into double digits. It took us years and years to recover from that. The upside was that we learned to live frugally. That is really important. Really. Learn to cook at home, drastically reduce dependence on restaurant food. Drugs, gambling…… really? Plenty of other ways to have fun. Find a reasonably priced fitness place, convenient to where you live, and exercise on a regular basis. Oh…. Here’s the key. Either don’t get married, or, find the right mate and DON’T get divorced. Invest in sensible ETF’s and diversify. Many of the personal finance sites I read stress buying and holding rental properties. Might be good, but I have seen and heard so many nightmare stories. That’s enough….good luck.

  • @nikolazunic6580

    @nikolazunic6580

    Жыл бұрын

    Haha divorce - that one falls under go woke and go broke

  • @annaplot2073

    @annaplot2073

    Жыл бұрын

    I am already learning to live frugally😅 no takeouts, picking cheap brands for home, etc I hope it doesn’t get too bad though. And though i am a girl, i am not planning on having kids. Don’t want to end up not knowing how to feed a kid. I guess the white demographic part of the planet is going to shrink even more.

  • @clemfarley7257

    @clemfarley7257

    Жыл бұрын

    Tommy. Great post.

  • @quaidcarlobulloch9300

    @quaidcarlobulloch9300

    Жыл бұрын

    🎉 but some drugs are medication and can improve your life in all measurable outcomes

  • @PERF5

    @PERF5

    Жыл бұрын

    @@quaidcarlobulloch9300we will have to switch from the daily cocaine to Adderall/Ritalin for some time 😡

  • @richardrose7382
    @richardrose7382 Жыл бұрын

    If I may add a slightly pessimistic note; it seems to me that quite often throughout history, politicians have distracted populations from internal unrest and mistrust of government, by getting into “good little wars” and everyone is either “with us or with them”. A distraction from problems that are very often created by their own politicians actions. And during war, privations and currency correction, can be addressed with impunity

  • @richardrose9943

    @richardrose9943

    Жыл бұрын

    You stole my name

  • @Emilthehun

    @Emilthehun

    Жыл бұрын

    This is 100% accurate. The reason behind all this China talk is the distraction. Unfortunately ordinary people don't seem to see through the fog to realize that it's our own politicians policies that got us where we are right now.

  • @titusp9488

    @titusp9488

    Жыл бұрын

    what you are saying is the sad truth ... Putin over estimate his ability to take Ukraine and Biden want this war for his political believes (righteousness) ... no one wanted the peace ... except for those living in Ukraine (not the politicians).

  • @weekendatbernies2265

    @weekendatbernies2265

    Жыл бұрын

    Oh, it’s that on quantum steroids at this point. Buckle up

  • @JD-my5ek

    @JD-my5ek

    Жыл бұрын

    Have you thought that maybe it’s the internal unrest and distrust that causes the wars rather than vice versa?

  • @royprovins7037
    @royprovins7037 Жыл бұрын

    If they went back to calculating inflation the way they did in the 70s we would be at double digit inflation now

  • @ericp4573

    @ericp4573

    Жыл бұрын

    Easy

  • @aliasoma

    @aliasoma

    Жыл бұрын

    Yes, someone said it would be about 12%.

  • @josephpeeler5434

    @josephpeeler5434

    Жыл бұрын

    Yep.

  • @josephpeeler5434

    @josephpeeler5434

    Жыл бұрын

    @@aliasoma If you go to Shadowstats, they use the government's pre-1998 CPI. They have it at about 14%. That matches my experience more than the govt's current bullshit numberm

  • @gerhard7323

    @gerhard7323

    Жыл бұрын

    Today's 10% inflation in the UK would be closer to 18% by 1970s calculations. Lies, damned lies and statistics etc.

  • @mythwaker1961
    @mythwaker1961 Жыл бұрын

    Heading for recession the UK has been in one for 6 months. Great interview and he is spot on

  • @slovokia
    @slovokia Жыл бұрын

    No matter how bad things get, Davos men and women will always be sitting in nice settings, eating good food and either making plans for the rest of us or being interviewed about those that do.

  • @MySteamChannel

    @MySteamChannel

    Жыл бұрын

    Yep, the likes of you & I would not get a seat in front of that beautiful lake😋

  • @yyaa2539

    @yyaa2539

    Жыл бұрын

    A good summary of my feelings

  • @DrHughMonguscoque

    @DrHughMonguscoque

    Жыл бұрын

    and Jackson Hole

  • @maryrose4712

    @maryrose4712

    Жыл бұрын

    And flying in and out in their private jets and preaching about the climate.

  • @rob44441000
    @rob44441000 Жыл бұрын

    In 2009 Warren Buffet was saying that we will have inflation worse than 1970's.He also was saying about US bankruptcy

  • @chrisbluebird5037
    @chrisbluebird5037 Жыл бұрын

    Transfer of wealth usually occur during market crash, I've been looking up strategies and apparently both bull and bear market condition provides equal avenue to accrue massive gains, and a news article particularly mentioned a 54 year old that made $280k in 8weeks, how do I learn these strategies, my portfolio has been stagnant for months.

  • @joshspring7686

    @joshspring7686

    Жыл бұрын

    You have to get a financial-advisor/broker to aid you diversify your portfolios to include commodities, inflation-indexed bonds and stocks of companies with solid cash flows, as opposed to growth stocks where valuations were based on future potential earnings,

  • @miawhitlock9140

    @miawhitlock9140

    Жыл бұрын

    @@joshspring7686 Had a good run during my first year in the fin-market, I assumed I had a hang on it. However, things changed during the pandemic, and I needed to diversify into safe assets, so I approached a coach who devised a structure that matched my goals, and in my first year working with her, I made a whopping $695k, which I hope to scale to a million before the end of the third quarter.

  • @pigsbark4173

    @pigsbark4173

    Жыл бұрын

    @@miawhitlock9140 that's impressive!, I could really use the expertise of this advisors , my portfolio has been down bad....who’s the person guiding you?

  • @miawhitlock9140

    @miawhitlock9140

    Жыл бұрын

    @@pigsbark4173 credits to Jessica Meador Jones, one of the best portfolio manager;s out there. she;s well known, you should look her up.

  • @mesutserim1595

    @mesutserim1595

    Жыл бұрын

    @@miawhitlock9140 I curiously looked Jessica Meador Jones online and researched her accreditation. She seem very proficient, I wrote her detailing my Fin-market goals.

  • @richardsimms251
    @richardsimms251 Жыл бұрын

    Wonderful discussion but we must NEVER interrupt such a guest like this one. Let him stay on his subject and continue to talk and teach us. Thank you. A great program and otherwise a good interviewer. RS. Canada

  • @microfarming8583

    @microfarming8583

    Жыл бұрын

    This is all by design. Welcome to the Great Reset.

  • @shivasrightfoot2374

    @shivasrightfoot2374

    Жыл бұрын

    It would have been nice to see him interrupted and asked to address points like the fact the interest rates are now no where near what they were prior to the crisis in '73, we are coming off a decade of near zero inflation and are still below the inflation trendline from 2000-2008 even after the recent inflation, oil prices are below what they were prior to the invasion, and that the US is now an oil exporter and the largest world producer.

  • @amenbrother8818

    @amenbrother8818

    Жыл бұрын

    @@shivasrightfoot2374 Absolutely right! Americans learned from Paul Volker not to be like Arthur Burns. Inflation was deliberately stoked by the worst Fed Chair ever, Jerome Powell, who doesn't even have an economics degree. If Putler uses nukes everything is going to change anyway.

  • @stevemar8027
    @stevemar8027 Жыл бұрын

    How about we measure inflation now the same way we did in the 70’s? If we did, we would already be at 14-18%…

  • @failedfishermanBC

    @failedfishermanBC

    Жыл бұрын

    No we have expenses like Netflix, home wifi, meal kit subscriptions, etc. So the way to measure HAS to change - it can not stay the same and still be relevant.

  • @stevemar8027

    @stevemar8027

    Жыл бұрын

    @@failedfishermanBC huh? They still had food, gas, and homes, etc. in the 70’s. If we take housing alone, we no longer factor in home prices in the cpi !? Instead we use owners equivalent rent, which is a highly underreported number due to the way they survey rent and it makes up a full 33% of the inflation number. If we used actual home sales and accurate rent increases, we would be at double digits alone. This doesn’t even factor in the other ways the current measures understate current inflation vs. 70’s measures.

  • @anothercitizen4867

    @anothercitizen4867

    Жыл бұрын

    This appears to be a talking point that people of a particular persuasion are encouraged to post.

  • @skfanfanfan
    @skfanfanfan Жыл бұрын

    This is the best interview I saw this year. Both the host and guest are superb. Thank you.

  • @yyaa2539

    @yyaa2539

    Жыл бұрын

    The host and the guest ??? the view is superb 👌

  • @cuddyb9631
    @cuddyb9631 Жыл бұрын

    We are already in the big crash, Inflation is a catastrophe. To bring the stock market to a halt, the FED will have to pull all the stops. The unfortunate issue is that other markets are being decimated. If you want to stay green, you have to rely on a lot of diversification. Currently up 14% and being careful. Still a better deal than leaving it in a savings or checking account yielding 0-1 percent interest.

  • @carter3294

    @carter3294

    Жыл бұрын

    People believe their currency has the worth it does because they have no other option. Even in a hyperinflationary environment, individuals must continue to use their hyperinflationary currency since they likely have minimal access to other currencies or gold/silver coins.

  • @viviangall1786

    @viviangall1786

    Жыл бұрын

    @@carter3294 You are right! I diversified my $100K portfolio across various market with the aid of an investment advisor, I have been able to generate a little bit above $300k in net profit across high dividend yield stocks, ETF and bonds during this red season.

  • @Steyne968

    @Steyne968

    Жыл бұрын

    @@viviangall1786 How can I contact this adviser of yours? because I'm seeking for a more effective investment approach how good is this person at portfolio diversification, particularly with regard to digital assets?

  • @viviangall1786

    @viviangall1786

    Жыл бұрын

    @@Steyne968 My advisor is ’Nicole Ann Sabin’ In terms of portfolio diversity, she's a genius. You can glance her name up on the internet and verify her yourself, she has years of financial market experience.

  • @skyak4493

    @skyak4493

    Жыл бұрын

    If you want real certainty -DON'T TRUST SOURCES CLAIMING OUTSTANDING RESULTS ON SOCIAL MEDIA!!!! Spambots create threads faking popularity! Don't trust any financial advisor that isn't registered with legal authorities in your country!!!!

  • @thelastbison2241
    @thelastbison2241 Жыл бұрын

    Finally, someone telling the truth instead of lying.

  • @grip2617

    @grip2617

    Жыл бұрын

    How do you know?

  • @mellie9633

    @mellie9633

    Жыл бұрын

    NF always tells us how bad things really are or going to get. Start storing tinned food and dry goods and buy lots of water!

  • @beowulf1312

    @beowulf1312

    Жыл бұрын

    @@grip2617 How do you know, what you don't know?

  • @pakpala1

    @pakpala1

    Жыл бұрын

    He has been wrong so many times.

  • @thelastbison2241

    @thelastbison2241

    Жыл бұрын

    @@pakpala1 It doesn't matter if he is right or wrong. The process matters and the possibility at this point in history is a reasonable assumption. Impossible to always see the future clearly, but there are also points where the future is clear and other points when alternative history is possible. It might not be as bad as he mentions, but the things he says should be clearly considered. He is not making things up. I hate nothing more than historians giving up their inheritance from Thucydides and just making things up. Enough people in the news do that already.

  • @mack-uv6gn
    @mack-uv6gn Жыл бұрын

    He’s the guy that tells you what happens after it happens. He doesn’t know what’s going to happen anymore more the anyone else.

  • @freeroamer9146

    @freeroamer9146

    Жыл бұрын

    If only we had more that told us "what happened" after it happened! 😐

  • @jctai100

    @jctai100

    Жыл бұрын

    Wasn't he one of the few that warned about 08-09 financial crisis?

  • @tvm73836

    @tvm73836

    Жыл бұрын

    Why are these guys constantly taking China’s side instead of America’s re an independent country, Taiwan? Just like when Russia thought it could just walk into Ukraine, the West needs to protect independent nations that are targeted by dictators like Xi and Putin.

  • @mack-uv6gn

    @mack-uv6gn

    Жыл бұрын

    @@jctai100 yeah probably after it started. Economic cycles are going to happen, so all you have to do is take side and wait and eventually you will be right. 😂

  • @mack-uv6gn

    @mack-uv6gn

    Жыл бұрын

    @@shayjohnson5830 🤣

  • @trafficguy8872
    @trafficguy8872 Жыл бұрын

    He’s not pretentious or arrogant he’s telling the truth it’s going to get much worse.

  • @kirstinstrand6292

    @kirstinstrand6292

    Жыл бұрын

    HAHA...any of us could have said that. As if no one knows, already!

  • @paulawagstaff686

    @paulawagstaff686

    Жыл бұрын

    Of course it is. Absolutely 100% certain. You watch !!!

  • @coreyham3753

    @coreyham3753

    Жыл бұрын

    Long overdue for a significant correction.

  • @coreyham3753

    @coreyham3753

    Жыл бұрын

    Long overdue for a significant correction.

  • @tobybrown1179

    @tobybrown1179

    Жыл бұрын

    Look how much money has been brought into existence in the last few years, of course it will get much much worst

  • @intractablemaskvpmGy
    @intractablemaskvpmGy Жыл бұрын

    Niall Ferguson is one of the trustworthy authorities that should be heeded. Many academics are full of themselves, but NF takes an honest and objective look at history and current events.

  • @jupiterjames4201

    @jupiterjames4201

    Жыл бұрын

    Hes a perma-bear. Him an Nourielle Roubini kept rambling the same doom outlook throughout the greatest amd longest bull market in american history. They lost all credibility long time ago.

  • @luckyluke1503

    @luckyluke1503

    Жыл бұрын

    Not really. He works for the Rich and says whatever they want. I remember him arguing for this Century being China’s century and couple of Years later he went back on his words after the backlash from that.

  • @repealsection230forbigtech4

    @repealsection230forbigtech4

    Жыл бұрын

    @@luckyluke1503 Thanks, you took the words out of my mouth, he's a sold out shill for people that invested Communist China and the elite that sold everyone out to turn China into the world's factory while his people (oligarches) collected most of the profits

  • @usazar
    @usazar Жыл бұрын

    Ferguson is great. However, these are speculative predictions, we should take them seriously but not as Gospel.

  • @cocorna3282

    @cocorna3282

    Жыл бұрын

    COMPARE HIS WORDS to every Democrats projections and he looks like Nostradamus

  • @cloudpoint0

    @cloudpoint0

    Жыл бұрын

    @@cocorna3282 You mean because Nostradamus never made any useful accurate projections.

  • @didierdenice7456

    @didierdenice7456

    Жыл бұрын

    Stopped listening Fergusson as soon as i heard "my friend, Larry Summer" ! we are here in the very corupt circle of the Clinton, Obama, Klaus Schwab and Economic Forum, Great Reset (allowing the US NOT to pay back its enormus debt to other countries !) and One World Government... All those have been the architects of our coming disaster !

  • @cloudpoint0

    @cloudpoint0

    Жыл бұрын

    @@didierdenice7456 Which conspiracy poison did you swallow?

  • @damianchang6439
    @damianchang6439 Жыл бұрын

    Niall appears to be talking sense, you only have to listen to what Michael Burry, Ray Dalio are saying by autumn when Europe and other countries around the world head into winter will feel the ripple affects of Russia turning off the gas supply this the war, unemployment, record high interest rates will all lead to global recession that will make 2008 look like a walk in the park. The markets are governed by human sentiment and that never changes history proves as much. Could be wrong but history demonstrates this.

  • @bkdmd5352

    @bkdmd5352

    Жыл бұрын

    watch Jeremy Grantham's videos here on youtube.

  • @tde4792

    @tde4792

    Жыл бұрын

    Ray Dalio lost a lot of credibility with his "China is the future" stance

  • @VenturiLife

    @VenturiLife

    Жыл бұрын

    @@tde4792 Globalist thinking that led us into this disaster.

  • @dougm659

    @dougm659

    Жыл бұрын

    “Record high interest rates “? You must be very young….I remember rates north of 15% and I don’t see that happening any time soon….

  • @bkdmd5352

    @bkdmd5352

    Жыл бұрын

    @@dougm659 If you calculated inflation today the same way they calculated it in the early 1980's, inflation would be about 20%. How is a fed funds rate of 2.25-2.5% going to slow inflation?

  • @JVerstry
    @JVerstry Жыл бұрын

    Excellent valuable discussion...

  • @seanyun1278
    @seanyun1278 Жыл бұрын

    I like him Niall Ferguson because he is telling the truths:) He has unbiased views! Hope more people on CNBC TV can talk about things like him.

  • @seanyun1278

    @seanyun1278

    Жыл бұрын

    @@minoan438 You are a very biased person:)

  • @VoteLaborOut
    @VoteLaborOut Жыл бұрын

    Can we do another episodes on how accurate experts have been before and after COVID-19? thank you.

  • @themasterrogerdelgado
    @themasterrogerdelgado Жыл бұрын

    Economists are like meteorologists. They're more wrong than right and nobody holds them accountable. Niall is a well spoken weatherman.

  • @americanexpat8792

    @americanexpat8792

    Жыл бұрын

    Niall is a guy that can't get enough of himself.

  • @titusp9488

    @titusp9488

    Жыл бұрын

    FYI - Ferguson here is no economist ... as much as he likes to pretend to be one. He is just a one man talk show - who likes to toot his own horn as much as possible. He is a "historian" ... note that he is not much of one ... a revisionist for the British empire (forgetting American got its independence from the BRITS)... but he got kicked out of UK and now he is sing the song for the "US Empire". In reality it is quite amazing how much Americans love his ideas ... while no one worth anything of value would not take him seriously.

  • @michaelkolanis2032

    @michaelkolanis2032

    Жыл бұрын

    @@titusp9488 This sounds very personal. Do you bear some kind of personal grudge? On the economy, the problem is way too much liquidity that central banks created. As for Taiwan, that's a guessing game. And although China may be experiencing problems, so is the USA, Europe and Asia generally.

  • @johnricercato740

    @johnricercato740

    Жыл бұрын

    @@titusp9488 Brilliantly silly remark. Where to start? Firstly, anyone a liberal disagree with is not by definition ‘ not to be taken seriously’. Ferguson is a highly credentialed historian (Oxford and Harvard) and has branched out into economic history. Secondly, as liberals are only capable of dealing with simple Manichaean dichotomies, they have no understanding of nuance: the British Empire had bad and good aspects - as many former colonies recognise. ‘Revisionist’ as used by you merely means that Ferguson doesn’t subscribe to the whole liberal narrative about empire. Next - he wasn’t ‘kicked out of the UK’. Your final sentence is risible sophomoric nonsense, translatable into ‘he writes things I fervently disagree with, so he is a nonentity’. Don’t you realise how puerile you sound?

  • @titusp9488

    @titusp9488

    Жыл бұрын

    @@michaelkolanis2032 , well don't know him personally but do stand against his imperialistic ideas. American soldiers died in defense of liberty and freedom not for imperialism / suppression of others.

  • @yyaa2539
    @yyaa2539 Жыл бұрын

    When you drop an apocalyptic statement and then you go to cool down on a peaceful beach for super rich

  • @jakethomas1829

    @jakethomas1829

    Жыл бұрын

    We just watched Don't Look Up, and just like the movie, our government says Don't Look Up, at the impending global event.

  • @glennkeppel9836

    @glennkeppel9836

    Жыл бұрын

    I thought the exact same. Rich fuckers in lovely suits telling us that we're stuffed and then it's off home in the super yacht for pre dinner drinks.

  • @callummilburn8204
    @callummilburn8204 Жыл бұрын

    Niall Ferguson does not make accurate prophecies. He just brings up good points. This doesn't mean we may hit a cluster fuck. Just not the one he predicted.

  • @elanxx

    @elanxx

    Жыл бұрын

    When the Ukraine war started he said it would only last 10 weeks :)

  • @aquaworldresort4581

    @aquaworldresort4581

    Жыл бұрын

    I agree with you! Inflation is retreating.

  • @IamMonikaDLC

    @IamMonikaDLC

    Жыл бұрын

    Agreed 1000% , it's basically going to be the direct opposite of what he's saying which arguably could be just as bad till we sustain on our own two feet. The thing he's right about is there definitely will not be a soft landing.

  • @philmckay9973

    @philmckay9973

    Жыл бұрын

    Yeap

  • @skyak4493

    @skyak4493

    Жыл бұрын

    Historians have learned that they need to insinuate lots of disasters to hold a job. The alternative career path is "would you like fries with that?"

  • @deltasquared7777
    @deltasquared7777 Жыл бұрын

    A brilliant analysis by Niall Ferguson. The factors underlying the current economic crisis are qualitatively quite different from former configurations, and it makes no sense to think that applying remedies that have resolved the situation in the past will be applicable to the current situation. In particular, in the present circumstance am not convinced that the FED's current policy of raising interest rates will be effective in reducing inflation, but will instead contribute to spiraling it upward.

  • @deltasquared7777

    @deltasquared7777

    Жыл бұрын

    If the only tool you know of is a hammer, and the only possible thing you know to do with a hammer is to pound nails down, then everything becomes a nail. Perhaps economists should become aware that all hammers are not sledge hammers and that many hammers come with a claw end that can be used for extracting nails, and they should start looking for how to use this other end of the hammer.

  • @drscopeify

    @drscopeify

    Жыл бұрын

    I think he is very wrong. Niall Ferguson does not understand the geopolitics of Asia, he is not aware that if Taiwan falls to China, Japan and Korea are now split off from the rest of Asia, they will have no access to Australia, New Zealand and the rest of SE Asia. China wants to force nations to it's side and create a new world order where they dominate nations in their sphere, if Taiwan falls China wins so the USA cannot and will not surrender Taiwan it's Taiwan or nothing. This is not about the USA changing policies form the 1970s it is about a situation where if Taiwan falls to China, Asia then falls to China. It's as simple as that.

  • @deltasquared7777

    @deltasquared7777

    Жыл бұрын

    Taiwan can not "fall" to China. Taiwan is, has been, and will remain a part of China. Unlike the US hegemonic agenda, China has no expansionist interest in dominating Japan, New Zealand, or the rest of SE Asia.

  • @robertcox14
    @robertcox14 Жыл бұрын

    Dear boys, please increase "compassion dynamics" leading to cooperative actions. It isn't ALL a competition, it isn't a game to beat everybody else. It's called "living together in harmony."

  • @johnnykidblue
    @johnnykidblue Жыл бұрын

    So....basically, we're screwed?

  • @RedEyeFish1
    @RedEyeFish1 Жыл бұрын

    He said it right on ...You cannot have fix inflation without a recession... same as you cannot fix a leaky pipe without turn off the water..patching it will only works for the short term.

  • @apothe6

    @apothe6

    Жыл бұрын

    What if it's supply side, and those factors are easing

  • @praveenspike

    @praveenspike

    Жыл бұрын

    Exactly, as he said Powell might be the reincarnation of Paul Volcker just made my day. ROFL

  • @michaeldelisieux

    @michaeldelisieux

    Жыл бұрын

    At the point we ALL are at, it's just prepare, if possible, for impact!

  • @TheTruthSeeker756

    @TheTruthSeeker756

    Жыл бұрын

    I favor a soft landing rather than tanking the economy into the ground

  • @freeroamer9146

    @freeroamer9146

    Жыл бұрын

    Common sense, a rare commodity. Unheard of in the absence of fathers!

  • @ChalrieD
    @ChalrieD Жыл бұрын

    His perspective on this matter is relevant to be sure.

  • @JoeVirella

    @JoeVirella

    Жыл бұрын

    Yeah totally ignoring all of the deflationary factors. Population decrease, globalization and artificial intelligence.

  • @johncarder819
    @johncarder819 Жыл бұрын

    The higher level of debt is DEFLATIONARY. If inflation grows, the value of that debt declines. The decline was inconsequential in the 1970s, but it is huge today.

  • @r64g

    @r64g

    Жыл бұрын

    Inflation makes debt *easier* to service. Higher level of government debt in particular creates the *impetus* for inflation. Governments want the inflation because they can always tax a percentage of nominal GDP to service the debt - the bigger the nominal GDP (regardless if there's any real growth) the better.

  • @johncarder819

    @johncarder819

    Жыл бұрын

    @@r64g, that was true in the 1970s, and while it is still true, there's a difference now. There is much more debt now than there was. When inflation rises, the value of that debt declines, reducing the money supply. That, by definition, is deflationary.

  • @r64g

    @r64g

    Жыл бұрын

    @@johncarder819 By this flawed logic, the government can simply add debt to 1000% GDP and spend our way into economic nirvana without ever having to worry about inflation. Why hasn't anyone done it already?

  • @falkpatt

    @falkpatt

    Жыл бұрын

    @@r64g like Zimbabwe

  • @luckyluke1503
    @luckyluke1503 Жыл бұрын

    Inflation is actually above 16% in America. They just don’t look at Inflation the way they used to like in 1970’s.

  • @jakethomas1829

    @jakethomas1829

    Жыл бұрын

    J(r)oes, colored glasses?

  • @LarsonFamilyFarm-LLC
    @LarsonFamilyFarm-LLC Жыл бұрын

    I see a lot of youngster investors in the comments that will get a big surprise with painful learning lesson. Too bad they didn't live through the 1966-1981 period to be able to capitalize on the massive correction about to happen.

  • @atmavictu2995

    @atmavictu2995

    Жыл бұрын

    yeah economy is the same as the in 1966….you had internet and e-commerce and mobile phones and self driving cars…

  • @LarsonFamilyFarm-LLC

    @LarsonFamilyFarm-LLC

    Жыл бұрын

    @@atmavictu2995 You're not understanding the regular falls & severe corrections of stock markets....that's why you will learn an important message the hard way. Your thinking is way-off-base: Advanced Technology (beyond 1966) has absolutely nothing to do with...and does not hold up a synthetic, inflated, bubble high P/E and propped-up market ripe for a super hard correction. Wall street (and myself) will happily take your money from the unknowing, unaware and you.

  • @LarsonFamilyFarm-LLC

    @LarsonFamilyFarm-LLC

    Жыл бұрын

    @Ian Well, said. I was actually very impressed at how much power (money) the millennium and young investors have....after the 20% market correction we had from Jan to June this year they actually bear bounced it all the back (up 15%) to only a 5% correction. While that could be the PPT being active... I believe there was some serious money coming back in with all the young investors using the same charting tools...to buy, buy , buy. When you're buying stocks...it's good to check and see who the sellers might be...if it's JPM, Morgan Stanley and any/all the big stock holders unloading slowly...you really don't want to be buying using your charting tools showing green-go signals.

  • @atmavictu2995

    @atmavictu2995

    Жыл бұрын

    @@LarsonFamilyFarm-LLC I have been hearing apocalyptic PermaBears for over 40 years now, you are all the same...meanwhile I have stocks that went up 30-40 folds. You should see a shrink, yours is a pathological psychological disease than can be cured.

  • @LarsonFamilyFarm-LLC

    @LarsonFamilyFarm-LLC

    Жыл бұрын

    @@atmavictu2995 lol, I'm not a apocalyptic permabear...I've calculated and can actually see a 60% stock market correction...then I'll get back in....simple as that.

  • @anthonycecil8299
    @anthonycecil8299 Жыл бұрын

    the seventies were wonderful, a big change in attitudes with the objective of freedom in many ways I hope this one turns out as well :-) Tony

  • @winstonlee6105
    @winstonlee6105 Жыл бұрын

    Niall Ferguson is an historian with excellent insights.

  • @avgonyma1
    @avgonyma1 Жыл бұрын

    Not just what he mentions, but the energy crisis (because most Eu nations can't meet the load demand by their own production). The electricity prices are skyrocketing, ans not just because of speculations, but real reasons (the changed weather and dimmer heat accounts for pretty empty water reservoirs). This (if nothing else) will push the Eu in recession. Chinese construction bubble just popped and will, due to the size of the country, spread to other countries.

  • @guyhommeNYC
    @guyhommeNYC Жыл бұрын

    Are they at Villa d'Este in Lake Como? Nice way to make us envious...

  • @guyhommeNYC

    @guyhommeNYC

    Жыл бұрын

    I was right. An elitist conference at Cernobbio. Although I like Ferguson's historical perspective

  • @phils5650
    @phils5650 Жыл бұрын

    In a commercial environment when a borrower has more debt, and there is higher risk associated to the borrower, the lender raises rates to acknowledge the increased risk associated with the debt. In the last 15 years the govs have embarked on massive overspending and creating deficits and debts that are unserviceable, and throughout this 15 process of accumulating this unserviceable debt, the fed has reduced rates instead of raising rates. This has essentially fuelled and encouraged more unserviceable debt. The motive of creating unserviceable debt could be the introduction of cbdcs to offer a resolution to the ensuing mess.

  • @timothyrday1390

    @timothyrday1390

    Жыл бұрын

    I agree with everything you write, except that the main driver of creating unserviceable debt is the political class and their never-ending quest for more power and wealth. They are at the core of the fiscal and monetary systems, so they benefit the most from large infusions of cash. It's not surprising then they always make pitches to the general public, "if we don't spend an exorbitant amount to solve x problem now, we will be worse off in the distant future." They are so full of themselves, that many actually believe their own propaganda and have lost sight of their own greed. You can see the giddiness in their demeanor in the media when faced with a new "crisis" because it reinforces their sense of self-importance. The current inflation crisis can be traced back to early 2021 when the new government passed the "American Rescue" stimulus of trillions in new spending after the fundamentals of the economy had already recovered (I, and many others, had predicted it would cause inflation back then, but we were ignored by the political class). They have continued to push for trillions in new spending since because that is all they are programmed to do in the detached reality in which they have ensconced themselves.

  • @phils5650

    @phils5650

    Жыл бұрын

    Hi. Timothy. Yes there an be no doubt that the drivers of this debt fuelled situation is the desired wealth transfer to the globalists. The public think the money spending is necessary as the causes all seem virtuous. But under proper scrutiny these excess expenditures were not based on science or economics. And the resultant debt fuelled situation has just facilitated the wealth transfer by the old pump and dump strategy. Interesting times.

  • @timothyrday1390

    @timothyrday1390

    Жыл бұрын

    @@phils5650 Yes, agreed. But to your point, some of the smarter and more forward-thinking among the oligarchy see that their access to the gravy train under its current structure cannot continue indefinitely, they have therefore latched on to co-opting the most promising technology to "reset" the next iteration of the system for their own power/enrichment. It is a fundamentally parasitic approach, and one that will be difficult to thwart by the common masses (especially if the elites continue to succeed in dividing and subverting societies along the way).

  • @williamfeldner9356
    @williamfeldner9356 Жыл бұрын

    The worlds best economic business historian……

  • @sang3Eta
    @sang3Eta Жыл бұрын

    1969 Hong Kong flu pandemic. 1971 US default on gold backed dollar. 1973 Vietnam war ends. 1974 Oil shock. 1981 Interest rates peak at 20%.

  • @tomspeed3354

    @tomspeed3354

    Жыл бұрын

    yep and after boom, boom and boom

  • @kirstinstrand6292

    @kirstinstrand6292

    Жыл бұрын

    1981 Aids explosion.

  • @Dedicated_.1

    @Dedicated_.1

    Жыл бұрын

    @@tomspeed3354 that’s over 10 years of price and geopolitical instability, not insignificant

  • @michaelplunkett8059

    @michaelplunkett8059

    Жыл бұрын

    Add the 1978 Iranian oil shock.

  • @jamcaseproductions8307
    @jamcaseproductions8307 Жыл бұрын

    Thanks buddy

  • @signalrepeater
    @signalrepeater Жыл бұрын

    What a beautiful location ....

  • @lukepiotr
    @lukepiotr Жыл бұрын

    Great interview. More of Niall Ferguson please

  • @AcmePotatoPackingPocatello

    @AcmePotatoPackingPocatello

    Жыл бұрын

    Hero ?

  • @gerhard7323
    @gerhard7323 Жыл бұрын

    I think I'm correct in saying that the world isn't actually producing much more than it was in the 1970s, but the only thing that's changed is the growing debt that's been attached to it. Really, in many ways, the last 50 years have been a great swindle and I'm sure that history will come to see it that way in good time.

  • @DrRock2009

    @DrRock2009

    Жыл бұрын

    Yup. Allow the world population to increase, scam the wealth off the people and now eliminate the people…😡

  • @peterkratoska4524

    @peterkratoska4524

    Жыл бұрын

    One person's debt is someone elses asset. 75% of US debt is private sector savings (and no shortage of buyers). The current inflation is the supply shock. We did stop much of the world economy for covid - which is unprecedented. I have plumber friends who can't get 2inch abs elbows. Myself having run a print business for decades I'm seeing unprecedented shortages of paper. The ports are still backed up. Its like the shift to household goods from military after ww2, there was major inflation then too. Oh and the world is producing far more than in the 70s. (I was around then too).

  • @athena3865

    @athena3865

    Жыл бұрын

    The world isn't producing much more than it did in the 1970's? Even the world population has more than doubled since then..... In the 1970's I didn't have a laptop, yes...the one I'm typing on, and that's just for starters....Were you around, then? Are you math challenged?

  • @gerhard7323

    @gerhard7323

    Жыл бұрын

    @@peterkratoska4524 Take a look at Macrotrends World GDP growth rate 1970 - 2022.

  • @gerhard7323

    @gerhard7323

    Жыл бұрын

    @@athena3865 Take a look at Macrotrends GDP Growth Rate 1970 - 2022.

  • @StockMarketCaddie
    @StockMarketCaddie Жыл бұрын

    Where was this interview?

  • @NoOne-fe8qt
    @NoOne-fe8qt Жыл бұрын

    Graham Addison? What book did they talk about at minute 11+

  • @tempus1253
    @tempus1253 Жыл бұрын

    The 1970's was a s...t time. Two gruesome recessions (1971-73 & 1977-78), 25,000 conscientious objectors forced to work for no pay as "volunteers" because hospitals refused to hire them, the gasoline shortage crisis of 1977-1978 and the freezing of wage buying-power entering its 10th year (1968-1978). And U.S. employers were gearing up to automate and outsource jobs leading to a 50-year long "Long, Slow Depression."

  • @AcmePotatoPackingPocatello

    @AcmePotatoPackingPocatello

    Жыл бұрын

    Pfffft your fibbing about the 1970s. Perhaps if you lived in Greece

  • @tek6423

    @tek6423

    Жыл бұрын

    I do not recall any “conscientious objectors” being forced to work anywhere for no pay. Tough times indeed, but that part does not ring true.

  • @AcmePotatoPackingPocatello

    @AcmePotatoPackingPocatello

    Жыл бұрын

    @@tek6423 1970s were NOT TOUGH. COMPARED to the low wage, pisspoor healthcare, the 70s were a GOLDEN AGE

  • @kozani101
    @kozani101 Жыл бұрын

    The stocks are all down 30-70 percent dont lookat the dow or nasdaq

  • @R3tr0v1ru5

    @R3tr0v1ru5

    Жыл бұрын

    Many growth stocks down 75-90%+

  • @peters972
    @peters972 Жыл бұрын

    70s were great for gold, real estate, and oil, the new oil is lithium refining

  • @danielintheantipodes6741
    @danielintheantipodes6741 Жыл бұрын

    Currently, I feel as if I am living in 1929.

  • @nikoblub3755

    @nikoblub3755

    Жыл бұрын

    Worldwar 3 coming the USA will get there

  • @09Silverbull
    @09Silverbull Жыл бұрын

    Top 10 facts that the Federal Reserve & Central Banksters will never admit: 1) USA has a fiat currency. 2) Fiat currencies fail 100% on Earth. 3) Most fiat currencies fail at 30 years. 4) USA’s fiat currency is over 51 years. 5) Hyper-inflation is inevitable. 6) Currency debasement is inevitable. 7) Debasement = All cash worthless. 8) U.S. dollar = Leper w’ most fingers. 9) U.S. deficit is untenable. 10) U.S. currency debasement looming.

  • @Borat_Kazakh

    @Borat_Kazakh

    Жыл бұрын

    Wow, sounds so scary!! I'm going to buy crypto and gold. Those always do really well!!! Explain to us why the dollar is now the strongest currency in the world? Leave out the conspiracy theories and sloppy science.

  • @09Silverbull

    @09Silverbull

    Жыл бұрын

    @@Borat_Kazakh #8

  • @johnnysupreme5718

    @johnnysupreme5718

    Жыл бұрын

    @@Borat_Kazakh "we'll print as much money as we want and if you point out it's ridiculous you're a conspiracy theorist"

  • @davidcoard1978
    @davidcoard1978 Жыл бұрын

    Can't do a Volker with global debt levels so high. Roubini stated its delusional to expect a recession that is not severe.

  • @MikeyPaper

    @MikeyPaper

    Жыл бұрын

    Exactly.

  • @jonkayl9416
    @jonkayl9416 Жыл бұрын

    Great and very interesting. I Agree

  • @Logofat_Valassky
    @Logofat_Valassky Жыл бұрын

    Most people do not care where their money work when they sleep, so why would they think about '70s? Your briliant book Mr. Ferguson is teaching about a crucial shortage in education in field of history when we think about those highly payd quark matematicians. So even more likely similar behavior can be awaited in case of a nominal politician or businesman.

  • @jdlngwll
    @jdlngwll Жыл бұрын

    Curious as to where this interview was filmed.

  • @bcampbell1826

    @bcampbell1826

    Жыл бұрын

    I am almost certain, My guess this was done at the world economic forum held this past May 2022 in Davos Switzerland.

  • @bobchannell3553
    @bobchannell3553 Жыл бұрын

    He thinks they're heading for a recession in Europe. I wonder how he figured that one out. lol

  • @jerrymassey344
    @jerrymassey344 Жыл бұрын

    History repeats itself

  • @SenorTucano
    @SenorTucano Жыл бұрын

    I’m surprised anyone listens to Nial Ferguson given his track record

  • @dilibau
    @dilibau Жыл бұрын

    So we headin’ into Cold War 2…

  • @omar2k11

    @omar2k11

    Жыл бұрын

    Not trying to sound inflammatory but I've thought this and kind of realized that we've been in a currency war here for a while... and now Janet Yellen wants to price cap russian oil....

  • @R3tr0v1ru5

    @R3tr0v1ru5

    Жыл бұрын

    We've never come out of the first one.

  • @ronaldronald8819
    @ronaldronald8819 Жыл бұрын

    It is fairly simple, of every dollar printed 95 cents went straight into non value excessive market ballooning. The economy will stay out of balance until the excess dollars are backed by real value or taken out of the system.

  • @zAlaska

    @zAlaska

    Жыл бұрын

    I think when you take the Federal reserve requirement from 10% as it was for a long ever, down to 3% and now 0% as the credit Masters create credit and then sell it on Wall Street so that they can create some more with nothing behind it. A 10% deposit requirement on $10,000 creates $100,000 of credit potential. It's 3% deposit requirement creates 5 million dollars worth of credit potential. And if it's a zero percent deposit requirement you can create all the credit you can create if you can sell it, and buy the whole neighborhood with borrowed cash as I save $10,000 struggling to come up with a down payment. And that interest that never lets you pay off the debt because you're paying it with borrowed money and you have to borrow more money to pay what you borrowed because it's all borrowed. And if you get rid of the excess dollars there's no dollars to cover the debt, the interest. When the interest owed is more than the principal owed, complete bankruptcy will be at hand, unless more credit is created to cover the payments of just the interest which was incomplete and doesn't touch the principal which continues to grow. The way money is created, perhaps even the barons ought to fear.

  • @ronaldronald8819

    @ronaldronald8819

    Жыл бұрын

    @@zAlaska Cheers. That is well worded. Fiat Money introduced as dept and fractional reserve banking. The tools to let the masters take it all. Its the biggest heist in history.

  • @zAlaska

    @zAlaska

    Жыл бұрын

    @@ronaldronald8819 how many millions of dollars is your $40,000 home worth? Take the money and what are you left with? A dime that won't even buy a cigarette.

  • @zAlaska

    @zAlaska

    Жыл бұрын

    @@ronaldronald8819 I have been saving this hundred dollars to buy gasoline for over a year. During this time an additional $10 for my dollar and every dollar has appeared, seemingly out of nowhere. There's 10 times more dollars available to spend just like cash. Why is the price of gasoline gone up everywhere and why is the price coming down in America and skyrocketing everywhere? I've been managing your retirement and only charging 2%. Watch it grow and I'll only charge you 2% compounded every year and I get 2/3 of the profits by the time you retire because I charged 2%, which one using bankers math is only 2/3 of the profit. How much does your investor charge?

  • @FreePizza007
    @FreePizza007 Жыл бұрын

    I like the background. Holiday home!

  • @jassimal-thani6169
    @jassimal-thani6169 Жыл бұрын

    Where is the location the interview taking place?

  • @ericmalcolm3467
    @ericmalcolm3467 Жыл бұрын

    TRADING HAS NOT BEEN GOING WELL WITH ME, I HAVE INVESTED A LOT OF TIME AND FAILED, I TRADED ON MY OWN BUT EACH TIME I KEEP LOOSING MONEY. I DON'T HAVE GOOD STRATEGIES TOWARDS THE MARKET. PLEASE CAN SOMEONE PUT ME THROUGH ON THE RIGHT PATH.

  • @DiegoCarlossouza4

    @DiegoCarlossouza4

    Жыл бұрын

    I came here to learn how to trade after listening to this video I'm still confused, I'm a newbie and I'm open to ideas.

  • @Chadjenkins868

    @Chadjenkins868

    Жыл бұрын

    The best strategy to use in trading is to trade a professional who understands the market quite well, that way maximum profit is guaranteed. Because I have learned along the way of my investment that research and analysis are important, note that experience is more needed, than luck when it comes to the financial market.

  • @dauglasfumes7440

    @dauglasfumes7440

    Жыл бұрын

    Yeah you're right, most times it amazes me greatly the way I moved fro an average lifestyle to earning over $62k per month, utter shock is the word. I have understood a lot in the past few years to doubt that opportunities abound in the financial markets, The only thing is to know where to focus.

  • @Kelvin.luther.007

    @Kelvin.luther.007

    Жыл бұрын

    @@dauglasfumes7440 Wow buddy, that's more than a mouthful of profits you're making. How do you achieve this feat consistently? You must be a genius in trading.

  • @dauglasfumes7440

    @dauglasfumes7440

    Жыл бұрын

    @@Kelvin.luther.007 Anyways not actually, what I know about trading almost on zilch lol. I make huge profits on my investment since I started trading with an Expert, her trading strategies are top notch coupled with the little commission she charges on her trade.

  • @thelastbison2241
    @thelastbison2241 Жыл бұрын

    If it is worse than 1970s, I rather be the US than any other country. The dollar is reaching all level high compared to everything else. The US will outbid any other seller on essentials (if they are able to export it to the US) and everyone else will have to fight for whats left.

  • @chrishart8548

    @chrishart8548

    Жыл бұрын

    But what will the US offer if knowone wants dollars anymore. Because you won't be able to buy anything with them because the US don't produce anything.

  • @stargazer5073
    @stargazer5073 Жыл бұрын

    It's going to be worse!!! How can the little families prepare??

  • @LBJTV

    @LBJTV

    Жыл бұрын

    get rich or die tryin

  • @markhoward9743

    @markhoward9743

    Жыл бұрын

    By using their heads instead of their credit cards! You're welcome!

  • @thebiglebowski4309
    @thebiglebowski4309 Жыл бұрын

    Great piece.. 👍 agree totally.

  • @gerhard7323
    @gerhard7323 Жыл бұрын

    Bognor really is beautiful at this time of year isn't it.

  • @PP-oz2oj
    @PP-oz2oj Жыл бұрын

    Fed talks differently than have acted, hence the stickier inflation. Fed has been talking and talking and that’s it.

  • @josephpeeler5434

    @josephpeeler5434

    Жыл бұрын

    The Fed needs to normalize rates. They must unload trillions of treasuries and MBS off their balance sheet. The dollars received from the sell must be extinguished.

  • @shivasrightfoot2374
    @shivasrightfoot2374 Жыл бұрын

    The US is literally the largest oil producer of crude in the world now as well as a major exporter of crude. This is different from 1973. Increasing oil prices will also stimulate some sectors of the US economy, ones that have been especially neglected during COVID shutdowns (when energy producers had been delaying maintenance and repairs due to incredibly low oil prices). The Arab producers participating in the 1973 strike currently account for about three times as much oil as produced by Russia. In 1973 these Arab countries would have had an even higher proportion of oil production. Immediately upon the start of the embargo in 1973 oil increased in price by 150% and eventually increased 460%; in comparison oil increased about 33% after the start of the Ukraine conflict at its absolute height but has since August 31 been trading below prices on February 23, being currently about 15% cheaper than immediately before the conflict; oil prices today are almost exactly what they were three years ago in September 2019 prior to COVID. Inflation is still below trend from prior to the 2008 financial crisis despite the recent uptick. We are coming off a decade of near zero inflation. In the 1970s we had just quit the gold standard and had been plagued by inflation for years. Interest rates on 10-yeat T-bills were near 7% in Dec 1973 on the eve of crisis, they were 2% on the eve of the Ukraine invasion. Furthermore, the fall in house prices is not accounted for in CPI inflation data but does represent a significant disinflationary pressure. I would take a bet against Niall's position here.

  • @vijendrajaiswal
    @vijendrajaiswal Жыл бұрын

    Beautiful location. Which one is it?

  • @markhoward9743

    @markhoward9743

    Жыл бұрын

    South Dakota!

  • @vijendrajaiswal

    @vijendrajaiswal

    Жыл бұрын

    @@markhoward9743 thx,.

  • @dc7279
    @dc7279 Жыл бұрын

    Ferguson talking more sense on economics than he did on covid

  • @prashanthmale4913
    @prashanthmale4913 Жыл бұрын

    I wish I can paste my chart here but yeah market is tanking big time

  • @AG-dl4em
    @AG-dl4em Жыл бұрын

    where is the location?

  • @mham83

    @mham83

    Жыл бұрын

    Quite possibly Lake Como

  • @vc4510

    @vc4510

    Жыл бұрын

    Pretty.

  • @gmshadowtraders
    @gmshadowtraders Жыл бұрын

    LEGEND

  • @robertreynolds6072
    @robertreynolds6072 Жыл бұрын

    A lot of inflation is supply side. Reduce supply, demand too high, price goes up....this is the energy crisis and the supply issues from China being in covid lockdowns. Raising interest rates would be catastrophic in this situation.

  • @akp167

    @akp167

    Жыл бұрын

    You can’t blame supply for inflation because supply cannot be changed by policy in the short term. Demand managers have a duty to lower demand to match supply. Interest rates must be raised.

  • @robertreynolds6072

    @robertreynolds6072

    Жыл бұрын

    @@akp167 Mickey Mouse economics.

  • @alfred8294
    @alfred8294 Жыл бұрын

    Love this guy. He has EXACTLY my views. And Powell is responsible for the inflation.

  • @keto6789

    @keto6789

    Жыл бұрын

    He's wrong. I lived through the 1970s

  • @Peter-df2ip

    @Peter-df2ip

    Жыл бұрын

    @@keto6789 how so?

  • @keto6789

    @keto6789

    Жыл бұрын

    @@Peter-df2ip This isn't much worse then the 70s.

  • @jonathantaylor6926

    @jonathantaylor6926

    Жыл бұрын

    A lot of the inflation was caused by lockdowns, absurd anti-energy US govt and Ukraine war.. but low rates and buying MBS is all on the FED.

  • @TexasRiverRat31254

    @TexasRiverRat31254

    Жыл бұрын

    @@keto6789 YET

  • @braddeicide
    @braddeicide Жыл бұрын

    The only disaster we can have is hyper inflation because every single event is "fixed," by printing.

  • @ThisIsGoogle
    @ThisIsGoogle Жыл бұрын

    Shut up CNBC.

  • @daffidkane8350
    @daffidkane8350 Жыл бұрын

    The parallels of the 2020s to the 1970s is alarming. Ferguson and Sacks have some interesting ideas.

  • @raoulhery

    @raoulhery

    Жыл бұрын

    the more like the Weimar Republic and ultra inflation. We are going to buy food with cases of dollars.

  • @Borat_Kazakh

    @Borat_Kazakh

    Жыл бұрын

    @@raoulhery Better start prepping, dude. The zombies are coming out soon too!! Get plenty of AR-15s, ammo, and dried food. I would suggest living in your basement now!!

  • @freeroamer9146
    @freeroamer9146 Жыл бұрын

    Our vaccines don't work either, and our elderly have unfortunately been vaccinated! 😐

  • @kirstinstrand6292

    @kirstinstrand6292

    Жыл бұрын

    Thanks, now I won't comment on the same hoax.

  • @freeroamer9146

    @freeroamer9146

    Жыл бұрын

    Notice how the semantics is changing. There's a lot of explaining that needs to be done (gradually)! 😐

  • @jaredfontaine2002
    @jaredfontaine2002 Жыл бұрын

    Is this in Montnegro???

  • @stopato5772
    @stopato5772 Жыл бұрын

    WHERE IS THE LOCATION?

  • @missadda8890
    @missadda8890 Жыл бұрын

    Relax folks Brandons at the wheel.

  • @marcoAKAjoe

    @marcoAKAjoe

    Жыл бұрын

    He's slowly swerving us out of the lane

  • @AudiTTQuattro2003

    @AudiTTQuattro2003

    Жыл бұрын

    ...at least he knows proper English. No wonder you like Trump.

  • @susanrocksvold534

    @susanrocksvold534

    Жыл бұрын

    @@AudiTTQuattro2003 We Support an Alfa Male, he's a Lion. Jojo MaGoo was installed like a Toilet on Pennsylvania Avenue. There's no stopping US. With or without Trump the MAGAGENDA Platform will continue, simple as that!

  • @BStrapper
    @BStrapper Жыл бұрын

    When I saw the title referring to "an historian making a financial analysis".... I immediately concluded that this guy is probably a Brit... Britons with the most amplified RP accents often massively overestimate themselves, their skills, competences....and the power and importance of their country... At one point we will have a harsh recession, and in fact a recession has already started ... no big prediction... Want financial advices? you better listen to the folks who made billions in finance, Tudor jones, Buffet, Munger and many others ... not the talking heads who write in financial newspapers. The same guy wrote a book stating that Britain should not have entered WW1. He ignore that had Germany won WW1 and taken over Europe, Britain would have been the next domino to fall soon or later. That is exactly why the pre-ww1 British government decided to enter the war, oh surprise... Ferguson thinks that he is more clever than they were.

  • @thomasdooley5904

    @thomasdooley5904

    Жыл бұрын

    I don’t think you understand WW1. Perhaps you need to go look at it again. Germany did not start it and were not the main belligerent.

  • @BStrapper

    @BStrapper

    Жыл бұрын

    @@thomasdooley5904 "Germany did not start ww1"!!!! "Germany was not the main Belligerant" !!!! You must have been sleeping very deeply during your history classes...

  • @bertieschitz-peas429

    @bertieschitz-peas429

    Жыл бұрын

    @@BStrapper The slav's started it and they might well start another...

  • @Orson2u

    @Orson2u

    Жыл бұрын

    My ancestor was a bodyguard to a certain Austrian Noble in Sarajevo in the summer of 2014. Could his failure to protect this Royal heir have anything to do with the start of The Great War? Oopsies.)

  • @bertieschitz-peas429

    @bertieschitz-peas429

    Жыл бұрын

    @@Orson2u The Habsburgs weren't that bothered by the assassination of Franz as he shit the bed by marrying beneath his station but the serbs would not let the Austrian police join in the official investigation which was a political sleight that could not go unanswered.

  • @Kjom4
    @Kjom4 Жыл бұрын

    Where was this shot? I really can't imagine a place like this in the US.

  • @johnathanbarnes388

    @johnathanbarnes388

    Жыл бұрын

    Lake Como in Italy

  • @redshifttrucking4537
    @redshifttrucking4537 Жыл бұрын

    Wish they would have given a link to the book discussed.... my favorite CNBC commentator and Porsche enthusiast

  • @afterdark6822
    @afterdark6822 Жыл бұрын

    The current economic state is closer to the 1940's than the 1970's.

  • @naguoning

    @naguoning

    Жыл бұрын

    I feel more like 1930s (China in particular is bursting after lots of crazy growth) and we seem to be headed to war with Russia/China as the equivalent of Germany/Japan... vs the democratic states of Western Europe/UK/Japan/USA/Aus/Taiwan etc

  • @Leto2ndAtreides
    @Leto2ndAtreides Жыл бұрын

    It's interesting that Taiwan is currently important for its chip manufacturing so that neither the US nor China can tolerate the other party having full control of it. Although it appears that China is moving towards independence on that front. Anyway, as far as I know of it, the US military doesn't think that Taiwan can be defended. So provoking the Chinese on that subject is just dumb. There's no real good in treating China as an enemy anyway. Trying to hold onto power by keeping others down is a dangerous long term strategy... Always better to invest more in self improvement. Plus, assuming that the US did end up weaker than China some day, enmity would hardly have been a good thing to set up before that kind of future. As it is, we really need to work together internationally, to get the global economy moving back onto the right track... Preferably think less in terms of "countries" and more in terms of "what benefits people and humanity". Take the Ukraine war for example: Is there a commitment to the welfare of the Ukrainian people, or is it about "defeating Russia"? The way it's going, Ukraine could end up another Afghanistan... Because we don't truly think about people when determing our goals. Sanctions and giving Ukraine weapons aren't really a way to fasttrack peace and stability in that region. The sanctions may not even really be hurting Russia all that much vs the harm they're doing elsewhere (strange as that is)

  • @fc2790

    @fc2790

    Жыл бұрын

    As a person from Taiwan, 24 million Taiwanese just want to be left alone and not invaded by China. China defines what is a PROVOCATION. and China keeps changing the criteria. If you want to believe in what China wants, you are simply stupid.

  • @MichaelHayes_s6

    @MichaelHayes_s6

    Жыл бұрын

    Unlike Afghanistan, I think the people in Ukraine are benefiting hugely from US help. I suspect most Ukrainians would choose the path of fighting back and pushing Russia out. Peace in the region is not an option on the table, not in the short term. The atrocities committed by Russia so far make that clear.

  • @mebsrea

    @mebsrea

    Жыл бұрын

    The only “peace and stability” that Ukraine will see if Russia is not stopped is the peace of the grave, as the documented mass atrocities carried out by Russian forces and Russia’s own genocidal anti-Ukrainian rhetoric make clear. Giving control over the world’s energy, food, and fertilizer supplies to a regime that has shown itself to be a ravenous imperialist power with a clear list of planned future conquests would be utterly irresponsible. The price of resisting Russia today is far lower than it would be after another five or ten years of appeasement.

  • @Traci.Nelson
    @Traci.Nelson Жыл бұрын

    what an insightful clip...watch out folks!

  • @garydownes1594
    @garydownes1594 Жыл бұрын

    Where is this being filmed at??

  • @chrissalley9468
    @chrissalley9468 Жыл бұрын

    Americans really aren't prepared for what's about to happen. We actually believe that nothing bad can happen here but we are about to get a rude awakening

  • @freeroamer9146

    @freeroamer9146

    Жыл бұрын

    Sounds like wishful thinking! Know thyself.

  • @chrissalley9468

    @chrissalley9468

    Жыл бұрын

    @@freeroamer9146 🤷🏾‍♂

  • @keto6789
    @keto6789 Жыл бұрын

    This guys probably shorting the market and wants it too crash so he can't get richer

  • @EricTheBody

    @EricTheBody

    Жыл бұрын

    I’m poor and I’m shorting the market.

  • @keto6789

    @keto6789

    Жыл бұрын

    @@EricTheBody I'm poor and I'm 50% cash buying stocks as they get cheaper. If we hit 3400 I'll be buying then more at 3200. Then I wait.

  • @EricTheBody

    @EricTheBody

    Жыл бұрын

    @@keto6789 I kind of trike this new era of retail investing. It makes me feel a little more in control. (Barely)

  • @peterlewellyn2389
    @peterlewellyn2389 Жыл бұрын

    What is most important for us to learn about this presentation is where the hell were they? I want to go there, and sit at that table and relax sipping on a beer or wine.

  • @lucasstuart19
    @lucasstuart19 Жыл бұрын

    Is that Italy on the background?

  • @williampmcd8548
    @williampmcd8548 Жыл бұрын

    The lasting corner stone of any human society is truth. A relationship with this perfect perpendicular, truth, is the constant each human being shares.

  • @radar0412
    @radar0412 Жыл бұрын

    China has Nukes. That's a Dealbreaker for anyone who likes War. Our Political leaders don't like Nuclear War because they can't get reelected if everyone's a burnt piece of TOAST! 😂😂

  • @ahliong

    @ahliong

    Жыл бұрын

    Ooò

  • @airforcemax
    @airforcemax Жыл бұрын

    *¡watched at 2:30 pm Pacific DayLight Savings Time on Friday, 2 September 2022!*

  • @daffidkane8350
    @daffidkane8350 Жыл бұрын

    It’s not necessary that Ferguson is correct. Smart planners look at three scenarios and hedge their strategy for all three scenarios rather than place one scenario and place all bets on that strategy. The payoff could be great but also devastating.

  • @baardagaam
    @baardagaam Жыл бұрын

    Letting a historian predict the outcome of the Global Economic Equation is like letting a nurse design a bridge or a dam= not enough mathematics skills to do the trick... The weight of variables (geopolitical events, commodity prices, debt, GDP, inflation, government measures,...) is very important, otherwise anyone can take out a few variables and create a story around it... the weight also changes constantly, and to make it worse, variables also affect each other, creating a domino effect that makes it chaotic to predict any outcome (and certainly not by this dude here, altough he has some points about a European Recession because of gas prices, and the Geopolitical Risk of China)

  • @bighands69

    @bighands69

    Жыл бұрын

    Mathematics is no better at predicting the future than a dog barking.

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