Michael Cembalest Returns | TCAF 129

Ойын-сауық

On episode 129 of The Compound and Friends, Michael Batnick and Downtown Josh Brown are joined by Michael Cembalest to discuss: antitrust and mag 7 stocks, the federal debt, the ultimate value trap, chip supply chains, the 2024 election, the long-term ramifications of Covid lockdowns, weight loss drugs, and much more!
Thanks to Public for sponsoring this episode. Go to www.Public.com and activate options trading by March 31st to lock in your lifetime rebate.
More from Michael:
/ michael-cembalest-02b9...
00:00 - Cold Open
14:28 - Intro
15:45 - Back to the Future
26:06 - NVDA and TSMC Chip Manufacturing
27:54 - Market Concentration
32:37 - Risks we're not thinking about with AI investment
42:04 - Doomsayers vs. Reality
49:02 - COVID and grasping complexity
54:38 - The Debt Issue
01:07:14 - How cheap is China?
01:13:47 - Healthcare (GLP-1) Drugs
01:18:46 - Top Ten Surprises
01:20:01 - The Election, Politicians, and the No Labels Movement
01:35:02 - Favorites
👕 Check out The Compound shop: www.idontshop.com
🎙️ Listen to our podcasts:
The Compound and Friends: link.chtbl.com/compoundandfri...
Animal Spirits: link.chtbl.com/animalspirits
Ask The Compound: link.chtbl.com/askthecompound
The Compound Newsletter: www.thecompoundnews.com/subsc...
Instagram: / thecompoundnews
Twitter: / thecompoundnews
Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for investment decisions and is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Michael Batnick and Josh Brown are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. See additional disclosures: www.ritholtzwealth.com/podcas.... “Likes” or other comments are not intended to be endorsements of Ritholtz Wealth Management, or their employees and are not compensated.
The Compound Media, Inc, an affiliate of Ritholtz Wealth Management, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation with, Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. See disclaimers: www.ritholtzwealth.com/podcas....
#thecompound #investing #stockmarket

Пікірлер: 212

  • @TheCompoundNews
    @TheCompoundNews4 ай бұрын

    Thanks to Public for sponsoring this episode. Go to www.Public.com and activate options trading by March 31st to lock in your lifetime rebate.

  • @jonjone661

    @jonjone661

    4 ай бұрын

    Michelle Obama is the 3rd most likely candidate for next president on Fanduel. As inconsequential as that is, she would raise some money, get large portions of the population on her side and she’s less than 95 haha.

  • @cliffpeebles9705
    @cliffpeebles97054 ай бұрын

    These shows just keep getting better. Great job of talking about politicized subjects while staying nonpartisan. I always feel smarter after listening to your guests, and I can use all the help I can get.

  • @midwestcannabis

    @midwestcannabis

    4 ай бұрын

    PEEEEEEEEEEEEEBBBBBBBBBBBBBZZZZZZZZZZZZ 🥳✌️🥳✌️🥳🥳

  • @mclaughlin2008

    @mclaughlin2008

    4 ай бұрын

    Agreed. I appreciate that he called out both sides of the issues and I too wish for more nuance.

  • @chrishayes7966

    @chrishayes7966

    4 ай бұрын

    I may be the #1 angler who listens to this.

  • @tbone8737
    @tbone87374 ай бұрын

    It's getting redundant. Every single TCAF episode is must watch TV. Great job Josh and Michael

  • @yuvraj94
    @yuvraj944 ай бұрын

    Every week. Fire guests Josh and Michael. Amazing job man y’all killing it.

  • @stevenkitchen1780
    @stevenkitchen17804 ай бұрын

    I met Michael Cembalest once about 10 years ago when I worked for JPM. It’s like meeting Jordan or Brady for investment bankers.

  • @sameluckyguy

    @sameluckyguy

    4 ай бұрын

    A gentleman and teacher

  • @haroldb6773

    @haroldb6773

    4 ай бұрын

    Didn’t happen

  • @jeffossola668
    @jeffossola6684 ай бұрын

    Love the vibe coming in, had me hooked instantly as a Midwest Italian.

  • @FrizzelFry

    @FrizzelFry

    4 ай бұрын

    Midwest Italian - first time I heard that one. I love it

  • @Bonebit
    @Bonebit4 ай бұрын

    You guys don’t fail when it comes to guest/topics and everything in between. Best show in media (ANY) hands down. Michael Cembalest is fun to listen to; His vast knowledge of so many subjects.INCREDIBLE!🔥🔥🔥🔫

  • @mclaughlin2008
    @mclaughlin20084 ай бұрын

    I didn't realize how a wide of a breadth of market impacting topics that Michael Cemblast could talk on. What a great interview.

  • @toetheline1591
    @toetheline15914 ай бұрын

    Amazing episode. I've watched both of his appearances and the man is smart af. Top 3 guest all time.

  • @TheCompoundNews

    @TheCompoundNews

    4 ай бұрын

    Love to hear it, thanks!

  • @davidwelcker4747
    @davidwelcker47474 ай бұрын

    Incredible man with broad and deep intelligence. Thanks, Compound!

  • @TheCompoundNews

    @TheCompoundNews

    4 ай бұрын

    Thanks for watching, David!

  • @volfan2053
    @volfan20534 ай бұрын

    He was skeptical the first time but was like a kid in a candy store this session. Made me tear up a little.

  • @kosi42
    @kosi424 ай бұрын

    After this episode I went on a Michael Cembalest binge and now I'm subscribed to his Eye on the Market podcast. He said in another interview because of his position, he reads like 2000 pages a week of stuff.

  • @18jibjib
    @18jibjib4 ай бұрын

    Michael Cembalest is a fantastic guest. Please sign this guy to a max contract!

  • @gpat138
    @gpat1384 ай бұрын

    Go ahead and put this guy on the Mount Rushmore of guests along with Nick Colas and JC.

  • @commycomentor9695
    @commycomentor96954 ай бұрын

    Incredible guest!

  • @karliechen4738
    @karliechen47384 ай бұрын

    Great show! Thank you guys!

  • @MatthewMS.
    @MatthewMS.Ай бұрын

    I was suggested to watch The Compound by the KZread algorithm a few months ago, I wish I knew of it earlier. Absolutely great shows every time, Josh, Michael & Ben are all incredible and have entertaining dynamics with each other and the awesome guests. LOVE ❤ The Compound. 🇺🇸📈 thx

  • @jsfnnyc
    @jsfnnyc4 ай бұрын

    Love, love, love this episode. And yes I watched the first Michael Cembalest show. Both great. 🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉

  • @ThaboHermanus
    @ThaboHermanus4 ай бұрын

    The magic you have captured by switching this to “in person” is working wonders. I so dig that a person like Michael, who protects his personal and professional space, comes here a second time and really gets into the “setting”. He even had to get Josh and Batnick to do “favourites” because he actually values the way it wraps it up. Conversations are just mind blowing as usual, but the rapport with TCAFriends is something to be admired and long may it last. Good luck to ChatGPT and Gemini trying to replicate the kind of production you guys put out.

  • @sumitkar8146
    @sumitkar81464 ай бұрын

    The best financial podcast on KZread- love this channel

  • @pauldegrouchy8842
    @pauldegrouchy88424 ай бұрын

    Incredible episode, thank you very much.

  • @zeus_2001
    @zeus_20014 ай бұрын

    Cembalest is the best.

  • @Beakerandgreg
    @Beakerandgreg4 ай бұрын

    Even better then second time! This guy is amazing.

  • @TheCompoundNews

    @TheCompoundNews

    4 ай бұрын

    Glad you enjoyed!

  • @chrishaener8702
    @chrishaener87024 ай бұрын

    Great show boys! Enjoyed every minute of it!

  • @Jaymans29
    @Jaymans294 ай бұрын

    Ty again for another week of dope content guys 💪🏼

  • @markd1908
    @markd19084 ай бұрын

    Been watching the Compound for quite a while now. Thank you so much for providing this content, AS TCAF WAYT, without charge. All of your guests are top notch, but Michael Cembalest is a step above. Could have listened to him for hours. Great show as usual and thanks again to the whole crew. Excellent!!!

  • @michaelsumma
    @michaelsumma4 ай бұрын

    This is always a great great show ! The guests are incredible and timely ! Thanks so much !

  • @FrizzelFry
    @FrizzelFry4 ай бұрын

    I think this was my favorite episode so far

  • @caseycasey4494
    @caseycasey44944 ай бұрын

    Any chance a flat mat could be made the size of the wooden succulent bowl and placed on the table? Maybe the mat could be your Compound sign. Great show BTW.

  • @AlwaysReliable
    @AlwaysReliable4 ай бұрын

    Let's go!! Excited for the episode!

  • @RobertPease
    @RobertPease4 ай бұрын

    One of the best episodes yet. Well done guys!

  • @MJLU280
    @MJLU2804 ай бұрын

    “Music is bigger than movies now”. I agree JB. Great show thanks guys MC is a very smart guy I get his institutional stuff always learn something new.

  • @jasonhawkins2717
    @jasonhawkins27174 ай бұрын

    Wow great guest!

  • @michaelskyros8803
    @michaelskyros88034 ай бұрын

    Amazing show. Love you guys.

  • @marckramerdc
    @marckramerdc4 ай бұрын

    Michael Cemblast is great!

  • @bobscott2872
    @bobscott28724 ай бұрын

    He loves you guys!

  • @dougbrown7413
    @dougbrown74134 ай бұрын

    Excellent show gentlemen.

  • @bakerbevcam4736
    @bakerbevcam47364 ай бұрын

    Amazing taping.

  • @nicklongo2939
    @nicklongo29394 ай бұрын

    I'm here for the laughs but I have to say the scope of the guests on this show is breathtaking. Special thanks to Barry Ritholtz and all the rest o' youse.

  • @michaelmiddleton3311
    @michaelmiddleton33114 ай бұрын

    One of your best interviews.

  • @redpillrepository
    @redpillrepository4 ай бұрын

    Another great show! Cembalest is a giant and it was awesome seeing him again. Don't hate the crypto rally, Josh and chill with that old energy FUD! That shit's so 2021 lol. We're still early - get involved and listen to Batnik 🤙

  • @usazar
    @usazar4 ай бұрын

    This was like a Scorsese movie, fantastic but I had to watch it in Three parts

  • @cruzalfaro556
    @cruzalfaro5564 ай бұрын

    Another great show gents!!!🎉

  • @jimdemerath1032
    @jimdemerath10324 ай бұрын

    Fantastic show

  • @frankstalzer6342
    @frankstalzer63424 ай бұрын

    Amazing show this week. Cembalest is one of the top guests I've seen on this show. Very knowledgeable & has some interesting perspectives on a range of topics. Josh and Batnick were also great, as always. Keep up the good work guys.

  • @TheCompoundNews

    @TheCompoundNews

    4 ай бұрын

    Thank you! - JB

  • @donyaschuk6538
    @donyaschuk65384 ай бұрын

    30 min mark look at Michael's eyes work. '15% of the market was GE and ATT'. Josh 'Are you sure about that?' Michael...50 50. Love it!

  • @stevemcleod4608
    @stevemcleod46084 ай бұрын

    I feel so grounded and informed, thanks for a repeat MC!

  • @gailsy1
    @gailsy14 ай бұрын

    Great show!😊

  • @Michael-tz7tj
    @Michael-tz7tj4 ай бұрын

    Fantastic again guys

  • @Bet-the-Over
    @Bet-the-Over4 ай бұрын

    Love this guest! Thank you

  • @JohnSuarezPeristlyeWealth
    @JohnSuarezPeristlyeWealth4 ай бұрын

    Not to quote Willy Wonka, but this being available reminds me of when he said, "So shines a good deed in a weary world…" 😂

  • @SamEbby
    @SamEbby4 ай бұрын

    excellent show.

  • @randystewart8899
    @randystewart88994 ай бұрын

    very informative, thanks

  • @indermann9523
    @indermann95234 ай бұрын

    Been waiting for this all day!

  • @liiliilii9921
    @liiliilii99214 ай бұрын

    i feel conflicted about you guys interrupting the guests. I simultaneously enjoy and get irritated by your riffs.

  • @davidweinstein3865
    @davidweinstein38654 ай бұрын

    great guest, he could do another hour and it'd be just as good

  • @sameluckyguy
    @sameluckyguy4 ай бұрын

    Great show

  • @SMTraz
    @SMTraz4 ай бұрын

    Hell Yeah! I was hoping Mr. Cembalest was returning soon. Going be a great episode!

  • @Godisgreat301
    @Godisgreat3014 ай бұрын

    🔥🔥 great episode

  • @owenwilliams1324
    @owenwilliams13244 ай бұрын

    Fantastic guest. Great show

  • @chrishayes7966
    @chrishayes79664 ай бұрын

    Love this podcast. Thank u!!!

  • @TheCompoundNews

    @TheCompoundNews

    4 ай бұрын

    Thanks Chris!

  • @steveuhlman2368
    @steveuhlman23684 ай бұрын

    another great show Guys, thank you, even the cold open was informative.

  • @TheCompoundNews

    @TheCompoundNews

    4 ай бұрын

    Thanks Steve!

  • @sameluckyguy
    @sameluckyguy4 ай бұрын

    One of the best financial podcasts

  • @RichardSimmons1
    @RichardSimmons14 ай бұрын

    This guy is highly intelligent!

  • @midwestcannabis
    @midwestcannabis4 ай бұрын

    I Always hafta Comment! BEST INTRO MUSIC EVER. Gets my mood up always! ❤❤❤❤❤🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉

  • @cliffpeebles9705

    @cliffpeebles9705

    4 ай бұрын

    Just like a Friday dance party, right MWC?

  • @midwestcannabis

    @midwestcannabis

    4 ай бұрын

    @@cliffpeebles9705 I'd imagine so Peeebz! 🥳🥳🥳🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️🤣🤣🤣🤣

  • @myanrckay5959
    @myanrckay59594 ай бұрын

    The real value of LLMs for companies are how they can enhance and augment existing services / products and enable new products. A LLM you can interact with via an app has limited value, but a product with more / better LLM enhanced features presumably is going to win categories.

  • @justinbryant4402
    @justinbryant44024 ай бұрын

    Best intro/outro music in the game! Also the in-between isn't too bad either.

  • @TheCompoundNews

    @TheCompoundNews

    4 ай бұрын

    Appreciate it, Justin!

  • @midwestcannabis
    @midwestcannabis4 ай бұрын

    🎉🥳✌️ Party On Friends 🥳✌️🥳✌️

  • @matthiassalz1008
    @matthiassalz10083 ай бұрын

    i super appreciate the effort you put into your show. your guests are super smart and have a lot to say. do you notice though, that both of you tend to interrupt them while speaking?

  • @davidlkleinman
    @davidlkleinman4 ай бұрын

    Great guest

  • @MatthewMS.
    @MatthewMS.Ай бұрын

    24:28 💯 Josh Brown. 👏🏻🇺🇸

  • @feetwasher
    @feetwasher4 ай бұрын

    feels like Michael Cembalest is the smartest man alive

  • @jeffperkins6437
    @jeffperkins64374 ай бұрын

    Great show fellas….keep it up….

  • @sameluckyguy
    @sameluckyguy4 ай бұрын

    Mr Michael is a great teacher

  • @rainerluthershelley5131
    @rainerluthershelley51314 ай бұрын

    👋. Impressive guest .

  • @PalmBeachJunk
    @PalmBeachJunk4 ай бұрын

    This is the JRE of financial podcasts. Truth through long form unedited expression

  • @thewalruseater

    @thewalruseater

    4 ай бұрын

    Don’t insult this show by comparing it to the JRE conspiracy hour

  • @DAL201107

    @DAL201107

    4 ай бұрын

    Calm down. It’s a podcast. It’s good. Quit being such a d*mn fan boy of this for no reason. It’s not JRE or anything close to that genre. It’s The Compound. Two RIA guys talking to industry professionals about markets and life and everything in between. It’s a show. It’s not the second coming of Jesus. Relax.

  • @marckramerdc
    @marckramerdc4 ай бұрын

    I agree. Many of us are single-issue voters, irregardless of issue or side. It satisfies are human tendency to take the path of least resistance. Without getting too political, active voters and educated people accept the circus show of presidential elections for what it is, geopolitical entertainment. The issues are real. Collectively and as individuals we have to choose sides, knowing there is no one solution that will appease all concerned parties. And we can't in good conscience opt out. In the words of P. Diddy, “Vote or die.” 1:27:34

  • @rainerluthershelley5131
    @rainerluthershelley51314 ай бұрын

    I was all 👂 👂 👂. Thanks Everyone.

  • @LuckyPunk13
    @LuckyPunk134 ай бұрын

    Top Quality as always..

  • @TheCompoundNews

    @TheCompoundNews

    4 ай бұрын

    Thank you!

  • @Miggy2j
    @Miggy2j4 ай бұрын

    Great work

  • @TheCompoundNews

    @TheCompoundNews

    4 ай бұрын

    Thanks!

  • @guercioryan
    @guercioryan4 ай бұрын

    Love Michael

  • @nowonderfreebeats2587
    @nowonderfreebeats25874 ай бұрын

    Can't grow forever... Reminds me of Peter Lynch - " It's gone up this high it couldn't possibly go any higher" 😂

  • @Wemdiculous
    @Wemdiculous4 ай бұрын

    This guy’s been on camera talking for 10 minutes… Is the show starting now!? As if when the show starts matters.

  • @momofomomofo
    @momofomomofo4 ай бұрын

    Great chat

  • @d.j.walker3671
    @d.j.walker36714 ай бұрын

    Write a law eliminating the ability to dodge estate tax through trusts. The donor class would hate that, but it should be done.

  • @Holdm81
    @Holdm814 ай бұрын

    "everyone's crazy" will be my favorite quote of 2024 lol

  • @thebarryman
    @thebarryman4 ай бұрын

    Why would insulin pumps be affected by a weight loss drug? They are primarily used by type 1 diabetics.

  • @3quarter
    @3quarter4 ай бұрын

    Wow!

  • @AndrewUllman
    @AndrewUllman4 ай бұрын

    1:01:27 lol, the reaction to comprises. Fastest uh uh ever

  • @BlackBuzzzard
    @BlackBuzzzard4 ай бұрын

    Cool; Micheal lists names on the Armagedonist chart. I like the boldness.

  • @DF-dz4nu
    @DF-dz4nu4 ай бұрын

    Citizens United, that’s why Congress will not touch the Mag 7.

  • @whtmasterd
    @whtmasterd4 ай бұрын

    Here is a thought, with all the COVID, 2008 GFC use AI to run various scenarios based on known data to assess the decision making that was made at the time. This might prove more useful than everyone's single focus opinions.

  • @tdedmondjr
    @tdedmondjr4 ай бұрын

    Love the show. Only objection is El Salvador comment. You would be shocked at how well they are doing right now

  • @aj8599
    @aj85994 ай бұрын

    Let's goooooooooooo DTJB

  • @AuraAlpha-sz9du
    @AuraAlpha-sz9du4 ай бұрын

    At 50:02, will he mention the cardiac event anomaly?

  • @marckramerdc
    @marckramerdc4 ай бұрын

    1:40:31 The Super Bowl Kelce/Swift Usher dynamic has that same feeling of shared culture. Good to remember that we geographical share space and our interests can overlap, especially after talking politics.

  • @marckramerdc
    @marckramerdc4 ай бұрын

    My wife’s uncle owns a Pizza Boche Ball Restaurant. And yes, he's Italian. Coratti’s Pizzeria Bar in Michigan. So, if you visit Ben C🍕

  • @DaleBrose
    @DaleBrose4 ай бұрын

    I would say you are correct Josh. Many voters are 1 issue voters. But you also made an interesting comment that you're clients claim their are "politics-ed out", so what if their one issue becomes they're tired to the politics that the two parties have forced us into and vote for the once issue to change or disrupts the status quo? I don't know. I'm giving serious consideration to going No Labels, if for no other reason, exercising my vote to signal that I'm tired....no, exhausted.....from what we have now. Now, I've been a Libertarian since Perot and 2024 looks to be the closest we've come to the "if not now....when?" moment.

  • @Yoloman79965
    @Yoloman799654 ай бұрын

    I’m with Michael got into China dip, some cheap valuations.

  • @marckramerdc
    @marckramerdc4 ай бұрын

    I agree. I'm politics-out (politixed out?) and we still have 8 months to go until the election. 1:30

Келесі