The calculation at 16th minute is fun, she is adding and subtracting 10% from each side and then wondering what the answer should be...36

@cocoa5117

2 жыл бұрын

she is so bad at simple math

@TommasoMinuto

2 жыл бұрын

exactly what i thought, doing the symmetrical 90/10 split was totally useless and overcomplicating, but i guess that in the moment she didn't see that. it would have mattered only if the previous split wasn't 50/50 though, so its a general calculation that would work in every case but in this particular incident is overzealous

@omdwivedi8702

2 жыл бұрын

are you familiar with a guy named Satyarth Jha

If each diaper costs 2 cents, shouldn't she multiple 1400 diapers with 0.2 cents instead of dividing it?

@acerejetuvieja7516

3 ай бұрын

its answered in the feedback section

Very authentic interview, unlike many "perfect" cases in other videos which seem totally staged. Especially appreciated the honest feedback at the end. Thank you for the effort!

@jonathanbis3141

3 жыл бұрын

Great comment. Would love to connect!

Hats off to Jenny. As the interviewer, keeping a track of the calculations is no mean feat. She did it so easily. Also, Even though Lisa stumbled, her presence and composure were very good.

Really like the fact that this was authentic; It shows that even the most experienced of us are still not perfect. This tells us that interviewers simply do not expect a perfect outcome but in fact a sound structure with 'common sesnse' and a structured approach

When I heard disposable diapers, I thought that maybe there could be 2 kinds of people who could use it....first and obviously the babies but second, maybe adult diaper market could also be considered. Now I know that it would not be a huge market or maybe even a significant market in comparison to the diapers market for babies, but I suppose to show MECE approach, one could have considered it and then later with the mathwork show that the adult diaper market is insignificant to the baby one. Just a thought. Otherwise I thought the the structure was pretty apt

Super helpful. Thanks Lisa and Jenny for walking us through this exercise.

@Managementconsulted

3 жыл бұрын

Super happy to help!

Chinese currency is not Yen but Yuan. Yen is Japanese currency. It doesn't sound like a big difference in English but to people who are familiar, they are completely two things.

@zhangethan1945

2 жыл бұрын

Caught that too, I work with Asian clients and that Yen/Yuan thing was really awkward, it kinda shows how little you know about the rest of the world outside of US. But for the rest of the case with quick hints she manages to recover from mistakes very well

@nealagarwal1050

2 жыл бұрын

I can’t believe they fucked up the name of the currency

@alysiawu3031

Жыл бұрын

plus 1

She handled it so well. This was tough!!

"Market Size" and "Market Value" are different. I thought this was a market size question so I ended up estimating how many disposable diapers are there in the Chinese market per year but as interviewees, we should clarify this question at the beginning.

Super helpful, thank you both!!!

Loved this interview, thank you both for doing it. Very easy to follow along to and gave me a clear understanding of what's expected in a market sizing case. Loved also that it wasn't "perfect", came across as very authentic!

This channel is so helpful thank you!

I really like your channel! Pls keep it up

@Managementconsulted

3 жыл бұрын

Thank you so much Jolanda!

Just to add. You could have added adults as well (Age group : 60+ years)

I was expecting a better performance from a Mckinsey consultant. She did many math errors and wasn't able to do a sanity check for the final number. But great work thank you.

Anyways it was nice, i am just starting to learn this and it's helpful, good job people!!!

@Managementconsulted

3 жыл бұрын

Glad it was helpful!

The content is really helpful. However, Yen is Japenese currency, Chinese currency is Yuan or just RMB. Big difference.

Excellent work. Thanks so much for your interesting videos on consulting.

5/80 is true if distribution is uniform, not normal. However, really well done case and get's the idea through.

@zhangethan1945

2 жыл бұрын

Yeah it really distracted me, no one would ever use normal distribution in a consulting case interview lol

@nfl09031996

2 жыл бұрын

In demographic, it's the closest assumption to size a range of ages.

@asingaraju2023

2 жыл бұрын

China has a strict one-child policy. In most countries, children in the age group of 0 to 5 years will be around 7% to 8% of the overall population and in this case, we can consider it as 5% due to political reasons and then do the math.

Logic is reasonable but math errors are keep distracting me: Spending on disposable diapers per week= 280/50 = $5.6 which can be rounded to $6 per week instead $4. Also the # of children within the age range (0-5): 1.2BN * 5/80 = 75M.

@nfl09031996

2 жыл бұрын

Using normal distribution, the 8/50 has different proportion.

Great technique. The only thing that was weird to me was the population estimation. A population pyramid is far from a normal distribution in terms of age and specially in a growing country such as China.

@melindatjia4684

5 ай бұрын

could you help explain why she needs to estimate the life expectancy (80 y-old) then have 5/80? does it mean if she wants to calculate the population of people under 15 y-old it will be 15/80? then what if she's looking for the population of people, say between 10-15? I'm super confused by this method

Interesting! Keep it up :D

@Managementconsulted

3 жыл бұрын

Thank you!

Super impressed by how closely were the calculations tracked. For the preference of the disposable diapers vs reusable diapers, I would've probably asked for some research related numbers. When I did this case myself, I used a 50-50 split which luckily came out to be 35 million. However, the interviewee's numbers based on the rural vs urban population was probably a better way to work out this number.

This model was specific to an interview environment right? Because I think in a lot of metrics we can get help from the internet ie the census data and population distribution to the exact numbers. Great amalgamation of analytical thinking and with the feedback 👏🏻

Why is there a major time difference between the Bain Market Sizing case and the McKinsey Market Sizing case? Is this due to the difference in style between the two companies?

Thank you so much for the video! I guess one factor that has to be taken into consideration is that the penetration rate would be very different between urban and rural areas - for urban areas, probably 95% of babies would use diapers; but for rural areas, which accounts for a significant proportion of the overall population, the % could drop to 20% or even 10% (assumptions made based on their income level and access to disposable diapers).

@TheAmigoBoyz

Жыл бұрын

The majority of China's population lives in urban areas. In fact it's around two thirds that live in cities

The structure that I took was to divide the entire population (1.4B) into urban and rural (6/4 split) and then taking half of which for females. For the urban population, I assumed the age group typically suitable for childbearing to be from 30-40 which is around 15% of the population, and within those, I assumed 70% that would want to have children (relatively low due to urban population having more women working). Assuming even distribution of people having babies within the age range, I took 20% to reflect the population that had a baby in the past two years (taking the assumption that the majority of diapers are from babies from 0-2 years old and that the two-child policy is in effect). Finally, I assumed 60% of the urban population buys disposable instead of reusable due to better economic conditions. For the rural population, I assumed the age group typically suitable for childbearing to be from 20-30 which is around 30% of the population, and within those, I assumed 90% that would want to have children due to cultural reasons. Assuming even distribution of people having babies within the age range, I took 30% to reflect the population that had a baby in the past two years. Finally, I assumed only 30% of the rural population buys disposable instead of reusable due to worse economic conditions. After calculation, I arrived at around 10M babies requiring diapers for the target year. I assumed 6 diaper changes daily for the urban population and 4 diaper changes for the rural population and assuming 350 days a year and 10 cent per diaper price (cheaper than US) I got a final number of $1.05 Billion market size in the urban market and $0.7B for the rural market. That would make 1.75B in total annual market size. Only started preparing for market sizing interviews so I apologize for making obvious mistakes or incorrect assumptions!

Good one! However, how about the adult disposable diaper market? Shouldn't she have clarified about it earlier? (Or did I missing the clarification of baby-only market?)

@aufa9471

3 жыл бұрын

Anyway, subscribing!

@Managementconsulted

3 жыл бұрын

That's a good clarification! Thanks for adding that in for the conversation

@tony3876

3 жыл бұрын

She went into it later

superbb

@Managementconsulted

3 жыл бұрын

Thanks! Glad you watched :)

Can you explain the break down of 1.2billion? as you have estimated 5 out of 80

Why is it 1400/ 10 cents?? Can you explain as the estimated per diaper spent was 20cents???

What about the diaper usage for population above 60?

People should do approximations to simplify things. She overcomplicates even 5/80?! Uniform distribution not normal btw.

@RadoslavRobert

3 жыл бұрын

10% out of 36 mil + 90% out of 36 mil, hmm how much would that be.. 26 :)).. 32.4 :)) omg. It is 100%!

Its a total waste of time seeing good consultants second guessing diaper mrp's. Its so much more efficient to rather Google the price & work on more important aspects

Chinese yen?🤔

We were supposed to do 1400*0.20 = $280 and not divide right?

@ninazawadi239

Жыл бұрын

Yeah I think she made a mistake because you would be spending 0.20 1400 times

Why did you guys not include old people? In my calculation they were a bigger group than children!

The way she rounded the population of 0-5 year-old is 'even distribution', not normal distribution...

@homemdoacucar

2 жыл бұрын

she obviously studied business administration and not enginering haha

@Josh-zw1ui

2 жыл бұрын

She used a uniform distribution. Which is simple, but not accurate. Population realistically distributed normally with a left skew (ageing population)

Would be interesting to ask a guy to take this interview lol

Shes not the smartest but her thought processes are very good

The population of China is 1.4 billion

China has a strict one-child policy and maybe one household will have only one child. So we can work around a number of people in the age group of 25 to 35 yrs (just married) and decide on the number of couples in this age group and find the number of kids within the age group of o to 5 years. Then move on with the calculation of urban vs rural, not using diapers at all, cloth diapers vs disposable diapers, and so on........Just another way to solve the problem but it might be a little difficult as told in the video.

@ninazawadi239

Жыл бұрын

They actually revised the one child policy in 2016 to 2 children .. although not as common it is possible to find a household with two children

adult diaper?

why she saying hundurd instead of hundred lmao

Could she pass the interview.

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

the assumption is totally unreasonable, for kids under 10 mom , at least 8-10 diapers a day, not 4. I think she should separate the ages into 6 month, 12 month, 18 month. .

hunderd

Typical Mckinsey jargon Seriously this is how you estimate a simple case like diapers? Overcomplicated ladies

chinese yuan...

her math skills is poor

An MD who doesnt know the difference between yuan and yen lol