Market Bubble Popping Now? Bull Run Over Says Gary Shilling
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Gary Shilling, President of A. Gary Shilling & Co., discusses market outlook, possible deflation coming, and how the Fed is "stuck".
*This video was recorded on May 7, 2024
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0:00 - Intro
1:12 - Bull run over?
5:00 - Long-run returns
8:45 - Deflation
18:10 - AI and wages
20:55 - Fed monetary policy
23:20 - Bank failures
25:40 - Market sentiment
27:42 - 'Speculative' assets
30:26 - Career advice
#economy #investing #stocks
Пікірлер: 464
"Get more out of your credit cards with Kudos → save.onelink.me/4iKP/davidlin 💰 Use code “DAVIDLIN” and get $20.00 back after your first eligible purchase!" What is likely to be the best performing asset this year? Comment below and don't forget to subscribe! FOLLOW GARY SHILLING: Website: www.agaryshilling.com/ Twitter (@agaryshilling): twitter.com/agaryshilling
Gary shilling doesn't disappoint. it's so obvious that things are not improving. I'm looking at high-yield dividend stocks. Selling 200k worth of equities is stupid without reinvesting it. I might turn to cash soon if I don't invest it. Any particulars? (Buying bonds or CDs is not for me)
@gagnepaingilly
6 күн бұрын
The economy and stocks are two different things these days
@Lewyn298
6 күн бұрын
I also think everyone needs a Margin of Safety in their portfolios and just remember, It's time in the market versus timing the market.
@sommersalt88
6 күн бұрын
The market's instability makes DIY risky. You don't need to find the next NVDA to succeed in investing. Opt for top-notch ETFs, dividend aristocrats, and a trusted advisor. I've turned $480k into 33,000 in quarterly dividends using one, a major milestone.
@Curbalnk
6 күн бұрын
…maybe you should be more Blue Chip…, just say’n
@velayuthman
6 күн бұрын
@sommersalt88 I've been considering but haven't been proactive. Can you recommend your advisor? Could really use some assistance.
Our economy struggling with uncertainties, housing issues, foreclosures, global fluctuations, and pandemic aftermath, causing instability. Rising inflation, sluggish growth, and trade disruptions need urgent attention from all sectors to restore stability and stimulate growth.
@RossiPopa
13 күн бұрын
With the US dollar losing value to inflation and other currencies gaining traction, uncertainty looms. Yet, many still trust in the Dollar's perceived safety. Worried about my $420,000 retirement savings losing value, I seek alternative security for my money.
@FusunTumsavas-cq7tp
13 күн бұрын
With my demanding job, I lack time for investment analysis. For seven years, a fiduciary has managed my portfolio, adapting to market conditions, enabling successful navigation and informed decisions. Consider a similar approach.
@NicoleBarker-he2vp
13 күн бұрын
this is definitely considerable! think you could suggest any professional/advisors i can get on the phone with? i'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation
@FusunTumsavas-cq7tp
13 күн бұрын
Monica Shawn Marti is the licensed coach I use. Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
@NicoleBarker-he2vp
13 күн бұрын
I appreciate it. After searching her name online and reviewing her credentials, I'm quite impressed. I've contacted her as I could use all the help I can get. A call has been scheduled.
Scholars who study the stock market’s historical performance estimate that over time, the payment (and reinvestment, and compounding) of dividends have contributed anywhere from 30% to 90% of the S&P 500’s total returns. I want to spread across $4oo k into profit yielding dividend equities but unsure of which to get into.
@rachelonigirl
6 күн бұрын
There are many other interesting stocks in many industries that you might follow. You don't have to act on every forecast, so I'll suggest that you work with a financial advisor who can help you choose the best times to purchase and sell the shares or ETFs you want to acquire.
@frankedwardark
6 күн бұрын
True. Having the right financial planner is invaluable. My portfolio is well-matched for every season of the market and recently hit 90% rise from early last year. I and my CFP are working on a 7 figure ballpark goal, though this could take till Q3 2024.
@donovantobs
6 күн бұрын
Smart, If i wanted to do the same with my retirement funds too, how do i get started trading?
@frankedwardark
6 күн бұрын
I've had majority of my holdings in ETFs, tech stocks and I've had 45% increase in my portfolio, especially with Nvidia P/E (price to earnings ratio) adding few others, personally, MICHELE KATHERINE SINGH take good care of my holdings.
@donovantobs
6 күн бұрын
This recommendation is coming at the right time because i am literally grasping for straws atm! I verified her online and scheduled a phone call with her.
What I don’t understand is, on one hand we are told the stock market will crash and yet on the other we are told ways of investing in the stock market. Oxymoron or paradox? I'm considering investing over $300k, but I'm uncertain about risk mitigation strategies.
@Andrian-ch3on
8 күн бұрын
Invest in real estate, ETFs and high-yield savings account
@BarbaraRichstone
8 күн бұрын
Just buy Gold and protect your assets, the stock market is a rollercoaster.
@RickMckee-nq4ni
8 күн бұрын
The market is not necessarily a rollercoaster if you know your way around the market, there are various opportunities in the present market to accrue good profit, If you are not too savvy with the market, just buy and hold on strong companies with good earnings, or consult with advisors on ETFs and actively managed funds.
@VitaliiSych
8 күн бұрын
Great gains there! mind sharing details of your advisor pleas? i've started gaining more cash flow with my employment and looking at putting money into stocks and alternative assets that can help build wealth over time
@RickMckee-nq4ni
8 күн бұрын
Kristin Amy Rose is the licensed advisor I use. Just search the name. You’d find her webpage and necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.
David looks like he just got off a 3 day bender. 🤣🤣🤣
Chinese have an electric car for $11,000. What does Tesla think about that? Dr. Shilling is excellent and well informed.
@yehimstone5492
14 күн бұрын
Ccp backed and no profit company with an ev that offers zero frills and safety features, think Yugo. Tesla laughs
@Mr_Hundredaire
13 күн бұрын
China and their 'quality products'
@Mark-pb8kj
13 күн бұрын
I can buy a pair of Oakleys or 10 pairs of Chinese sunglasses. The Oakleys will last longer.
@user-xg6yc8ho3w
13 күн бұрын
@@yehimstone5492 Not ture at all.
@prolific1518
12 күн бұрын
@@yehimstone5492 Tesla is absolutely garbage.
🚨SILENT🚨DEPRESSION🚨
@jonski_i
14 күн бұрын
🏆
@x1k790
14 күн бұрын
Already in it
@scott7521
13 күн бұрын
Greenspan is a criminal
Fed won’t allow deflation. Lmao
@HubertGeorge
13 күн бұрын
Allow? Even hint of it would be a green light to print like a rabid moron.
@drajdew1664
13 күн бұрын
😂
@beefbottom
13 күн бұрын
Famous last words
@kealgu
13 күн бұрын
He talked about decreased demand and continued globalization for causes of deflation, then went on to say services are more problematic, and he doesn't see how prices can go down. He seems to be of his rocker if he thinks politicians are going to be fiscally responsible. LMOA!
@cybermuse6917
13 күн бұрын
Not sure the fed can undo baselined sentiment destruction or economic demand destruction or debt defaults after the fact 👍 even if rates go to 0
honesty is priceless...
No cuts are needed at all.
@JocobsComments
12 күн бұрын
Right
@dylanvanhoorne3191
5 күн бұрын
They will to help biden.then blame Trump when he gets in for hyperinflation. Remember transitory lmao
Him getting excited about honey was my favorite part
Thank you for your videos mate.. Predicting< a reversal of a trend is risky, and even worse, I believe there is more to this market than we understand currently. When people are losing, they don't aim to increase their average, but that can only change if you have a personal trade guide and signal provider like that of Whitney Eston which has made me almost 11.5 on a 3.7 btc Trade capital over the last few weeks. Make the wise decision. Markets fluctuate in cycles that can last anywhere from a few days to several years. In the case of B -TC, it's difficult to make a bullish case simply from looking at the charts....
@LawrenceQuesada
8 күн бұрын
She's often interacts on Telegrams, using the user-name..
@LawrenceQuesada
8 күн бұрын
@WhitneyEston.
@Lian32522
8 күн бұрын
Trading with an expert is the best strategy for beginners and busy investor s who have little or no time to monitor their trades.
@holyoli1976
8 күн бұрын
It was quite challenging to understand the different trends on my own until i found out about Whitney. Trading made easy.
@LucaBader189
8 күн бұрын
I have been working with Whitney for about a year now, her total professionals has delivered solutions well above my expectations, all thanks for putting this out here.
I love Gary. National treasure
@orirosengarten2572
13 күн бұрын
Dirty Gary
Can we get rid of the scam bots on these shows pushing phony services like this Tobias Hawke. To many scam bots that go into the comment sections and make up fake success stories on their investments giving credit to these scam services.
@user-hm5zb1qn6g
9 күн бұрын
YT is to busy censoring commenters who use "b00bies" or "f@t" in their comments. They don't have time to screen bots when there are so many hairy armpitted rainbow crowders to protect from unkind words.
@user-lb8bg6kj9m
6 күн бұрын
Yep. David is doing a poor job of managing his channel allowing these scam bots to run wild without deleting their posts.
I remember going to the grocery store with my father growing up. He would always complain about prices and say "son, one of these days you're going to have to pay $3 for a gallon of milk". In his mind that was his idea of total insanity. Last night I stopped by Walgreens and paid $6 for a gallon of water.
@jackj0833
8 күн бұрын
Idk what water you buy at Walgreens but I just bought 10 of them for 1.50 a piece for distilled 😂
@ct00001
8 күн бұрын
@@jackj0833 haha that ain't bad. Distilled is 2.75 in Indianapolis. But who wants to drink that lol. It's great for humidifiers and chemistry experiments though. Remmeber when tap water wasn't poison?
Thanks Mate, the sad truth is that no one has a clue, we all react to what happens as it happens and try to analyse it but can’t predict an iota of what is going to unfold in the markets… content creators are like amplifiers, when times are good they affirm it and try to tell you why it’s good and that it’s looking bullish but then all of a sudden the market turns bearish and everyone affirms it again and try to analyse why… it’s so sad that many are so powerless and it's not about guessing the market's next move; it's about playing it smart and steady during trading...managed to grow a nest egg of around 2.3Bitcoin to a decent 19Bitcoin in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Tobias Hawke, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.
@shockbj
12 күн бұрын
Tobias Hawke program is widely available online..
@batiaz
12 күн бұрын
Exploring new investment opportunities demonstrates your proactive stance towards financial growth during these volatile times. Diversifying your portfolio can play a crucial role in effectiveIy mitigating risks..
@BCelt348
12 күн бұрын
Throughout my involvement in various trading programs over the years, sifting through a wealth of information, I have yet to encounter anything that rivals the clarity, depth, and precision of Tobias insights. It's like uncovering a diamond in a coal mine.
@FURQANGAMER-jl9jo
12 күн бұрын
Indeed, the recent market downturn serves as evidence that a vast majority of individuals lacked a sufficient understanding of the underlying financial dynamics at play.
@LucasToledo-bb5gm
12 күн бұрын
Building a good investment portfolio is more complex so I would recommend you seek Tobias support.
David, thanks for your consistently excellent interviews - concise and incisive.
This is the 1st time I have heard Dr. Shilling. I like the old geezer....I'm an old geezer too.
Dr. Shilling is a real gem!! Thank you for presenting this insightful guest...good job, GREAT interview!! Good level headed insight...
"Old man shakes his fist at Bitcoin"
@const71
10 күн бұрын
said the soon-to-be-broke gen-z losers
@user-hm5zb1qn6g
9 күн бұрын
@Hundredcraptobot: Bruh.....
@fredcrossman5133
3 күн бұрын
Bitcon
Haven't seen Shilling in a long time. He's still sharp. Great interview!
"Absolutely no substance to it" It's amazing that these "doctors" don't have the ability to define "money".
@Darkskindiplo
14 күн бұрын
Obviously running cover for the fiat system that he has been so successful with. This dinosaur’s days are numbered
@Namegoeshere-op9hg
13 күн бұрын
The inability to define money correlates with the inability to understand bitcoin.
@OhDannyboy7
13 күн бұрын
Same thing came to my mind when he said that. As if the dollar is backed by anything with substance. Ignorant old hypocrite. lol
@MrAshaw83
13 күн бұрын
To be fair we can't really expect 90 year olds to... it's a lot to learn, and I'm sure he's spend a lifetime acquiring other knoweledge. I just don't really pay much attention to their thoughts on BTC.
@leochen887
13 күн бұрын
Correct me if I'm wrong, but Gary Shilling probably has a higher net worth than most bitcoin supporters. OTOH, Binance founder and CEO Changpeng Zhao (commonly known as CZ) was the crypto billionaire who lost the most money following the crypto crisis of 2022, with a net worth drop amounting to 82 BILLION U.S. dollars. Zhao was followed by FTX founder and CEO Sam Bankman-Fried, who lost a reported 23 BILLION dollars in only THREE WEEKS prior to his arrest over conspiracy and fraud charges in late 2022. Once the fourth largest crypto exchange in the world, FTX filed for Bankruptcy following a liquidity crisis in November 2022. But, hey, if you want to buy crypto currency, I'm sure there is somebody who would love to sell you as much as you wanna buy!! 😋
i have read his newsletter for years. One of the great voices to be heard. Doesn t follow the crowd and gets the macro correct quite frequently. Don t let his age fool you --- he still has it . Also no agenda like many many talking heads. His monthly newsletter is quite voluminous and unbelievable thorough.
I don’t know one person who has long term hope for the future of our economic system. It seems there is bleakness all around us. 😢
Hey my guy, prices are still rising and will do as long as the fed keeps spending.
@yehimstone5492
14 күн бұрын
Trillions for foreign aid and zero for us citizens
This time is not different
@jorge1170xyz
13 күн бұрын
So far it's been completely different. 15 years without a recession, when the usual interval is 7-8 years. Dow skyrocketing to 40k again despite a million reasons not to.
@JM-si8xr
12 күн бұрын
@@jorge1170xyzno different when quantitative easing occurred continuously since the 2008 crash...the coming crash was only delayed.
@user-hm5zb1qn6g
9 күн бұрын
@@jorge1170xyz you'll see....
Great interview , its good to hear his perspectives. He's a wise man with decades of experience.
David, you look tired brother. Take some time to relax and recover. God bless.
@wakethebarbarian4577
13 күн бұрын
David obviously works hard. He gets so many interviews with experienced old codgers. I hope he's getting rich, because his appearance is starting to show the stress.
Bang on. Great interview. Great guest.
Lovely old guy but he doesn't understand btc. How much of a speculation is the prospect of continued currency creation. Zero . They will continue to print and spend therefore btc is the lifeline.
@Resmith18SR
13 күн бұрын
Really, what would I do with my Bitcoin after making either a huge profit or loss on it other than cashing it for fiat currency, U.S. dollars? It's extremely volatile so it's not a replacement for currency and it's not a store of value. It's a Gambling token, that's it's only use.
@Doitallgp
13 күн бұрын
@@Resmith18SR you definitely shouldn’t be accumulating then. Not at these current valuations, nor the future greater valuations.
@Resmith18SR
13 күн бұрын
@@Doitallgp So Bitcoin only goes up, right? If I buy one today for around 60K and it goes back to 16K which it was just a short time ago, will you reimburse me?
@antpoo
13 күн бұрын
Bitcoin is speculation. To not see that is a mental illness.
@JasonAldeann-bt4xf
13 күн бұрын
Go try and buy a loaf of bread or some gas with your bitcoin ...lmao
The way I shall become wealthy is by making music videos which feature clowns eating cockroaches
Thank you David, great interview!
Good interview thanks David 🥰
No cuts are needed
27th comment. I've been waiting for 24 months for the market to correct.
I love linden trees. Thank you professor for your time :)
Gary is not pulling any punches on his crypto analogy.
@jaygatsby1
13 күн бұрын
Right, there is “absolutely nothing” to a global, borderless, secure, self-supporting, immutable, monetary network with a native coin that floats freely against all of the world’s currencies. It’s okay to be a critic, but he has no business speaking so definitively. I bet if he was pressed he would embarrass himself with his lack of knowing the details.
@jimbobarooney2861
13 күн бұрын
Gary is very grounded, great interview
@Resmith18SR
13 күн бұрын
@@jaygatsby1Bitcoin is so secure regardless that it's been hacked into numerous times and been confiscated by governments all over the world if they deem it necessary. So secure.
@user-hm5zb1qn6g
9 күн бұрын
@@jaygatsby1 Bruh,.....
No cuts are warranted.
Cuts will happen. Fed can do whatever, even to 0 if it feels like it.
The guys who talk like this live in the past, it reminds me of Stephen Vanmeter. On paper, you may be correct but in reality, if they give every person a check for $10,000 a month and they know the average voter is so uneducated that they would cheer on this. The US never have to worry about deflation again. Deflation will never be an issue going forward, With the politicians we have.
@1967MGC
13 күн бұрын
LOL, if the FED gave out free money to Joe Schmoe on a grand scale I'd back up the truck on alcohol, tobacco, gambling, porn, ammo, and gun investments.
@user-hm5zb1qn6g
9 күн бұрын
@@1967MGC So, like 2020, then.
lol.. the FED is absolutely not independent. However; our government is controlled by it whereas the Bank of Zambia is probably controlled by the government.
By the way, I've known the drilling is a beekeeper for many years. I've seen him interviewed a number of times in the past and bringing this very thing up. He seems like a very interesting person, quite normal and somebody would like to live next door to. (When I say normal, I'm not saying he's not incredibly intelligent, just that he is also a great person)
🚨BANK🚨RUN🚨SEASON🚨
Interest rates are below historical averages. They need to go higher to crush inflation. The cost of credit must account for default risk and right now it’s not accurately reflecting that. The socialist world economies are actually bankrupt.
gold silver
@Theashleydenise
14 күн бұрын
🎯
@yehimstone5492
14 күн бұрын
@Theashleydenise until a fascist democrat president decides to confiscate the gold like FDR did in 1933. Biden and Elizabeth Warren are already talking about making it unlawful to self custody bitcoin. It won't stop at bitcoin.
Deflation means lower standard of living from inflation or deflation of money supply. All about standard of living.
@jorge1170xyz
13 күн бұрын
Depends heavily on what part of the economic landscape you are situated on, and how you are positioned.
Gary Shilling one of the old financial masters. Wisdom and knowledge oozing from his mouth.
@jabdav
13 күн бұрын
Bullshit... These are the crazy guys that got us in this mess
Good questions 👏
Love this one
Yup, Nope. Equities may be expensive but global liquidity is rising, the Fed is winding down QT and fiscal dominance still reigns going into the election. All that money needs to go somewhere.
@jorge1170xyz
13 күн бұрын
Just be careful not to dismiss the concept of Money Heaven, because it sure does exist. Just as a newly originated loan can make money appear from thin air, a defaulted loan can make it go straight to money heaven. Money doesn't ALWAYs have to go "somewhere".
Over the decades Gary has always been insightful. Thank you gentlemen
Very good interview
Was about to sign off at the end but glad I waited around - learnt about bees! 33:55
Warning about level of credit card depts in videos then advertising how to shop easier and faster on kudos with your credit card is exactly my humour! 😂😂
The last name seems appropriate but I suppose we will see very soon 😂
Wrong. As inflation goes up it takes more dollars to price the same stock. Duh🙄
I see no scenario with deflation given the amount of government spending
While I don't totally agree Gary about BTC, I don't totally agree with blindly holding BTC through multiple market cycles. The moderate approach has proven profitable. It's for swing trading when weekly RSIs get extreme/divs. Rainbow log charts getting disgenuously adjusted, and the 4 year guideline is not creating longer cycles, which is actually concerning in terms of overbought. I can tell what mindset you come from David, but honestly you should consider yourself lucky to have the guests that do come on your show considering where your wisdom level is at, no offense. Some of these people have been through more market cycles than you have been alive, and BTC has yet to prove itself in a recession environment so... while it does move with gold sometimes, it has mostly moved with tech stocks. I regard it as a tech commodity. If you don't think it is a speculative asset anymore, I don't think you are being totally honest with yourself. There is also a cult like fervor that is honestly not healthy... hope people know about the liquidity pool that the BTC ETFs have opened with Inverse ETFs now... But hey what do I know, I am just some guy in the YT comments section 😉
Great Hair David OMG!
😂 I didn't believe anything this guy said until he said "I dont have to worry about the price of a hair cut, but you do! 😂 truer words...
Doubt it.
Yes, before covid I could get a haircut for $5-7 but now the cheapest I can find is $20-25 so there is much room for deflation
@oldscratch3535
12 күн бұрын
I can cut my hair for 10 minutes of my time and an $18 set of clippers. Buzz your head and put a hat on if you want to save money.
Deflation can't come anywhere near into play until you first have disinflation
Best interviews on KZread 👍👍👍
"It's a fiction, there's no substance behind it that anyone can identify".... 100% agree this describes the US dollar.
This guy predicted the 2008 recession in 2006/'07. He also predicted a housing crash in 2012 (didn't happen) He also predicted a global recession in 2013 (didn't happen) He also predicted an oil crash in 2015 (didn't happen; albeit oil prices decreased for a short amount of time before jumping back up) He's a bit of a broken clock, which makes him unreliable in his predictions -- he'll be right eventually, but when?
55%? It looks to me that the shiller pe is indicating 100% overvaluation. What am I missing here David?
This is just baloney. The guy says invest in long U.S. bonds because interest rates will come down; also invest in U.S. dollars because interest rates will stay high. You can't have it both ways.
Gary Schilling was the 2 handed economist Truman said he didn’t want working for him.
Typically with the surge in AI and robotics deflation would but the governments endless money printing will only accelerate and easily cancel any deflationary gains.
“Just panting to be bought” Haha
deflation is a myth because money printer go BRRRRRRRRRR
@vincentyeo88
13 күн бұрын
Can't do this in other countries, otherwise their currencies will crash.
@vincentaltoro8725
13 күн бұрын
@@vincentyeo88 Dollar will soon crash. I hope you have a garden and you're growing your own food; grocery stores will be empty. Godspeed.
@vincentyeo88
13 күн бұрын
@@vincentaltoro8725 Thank you for your reply. Unfortunately, I live in an apartment, but it's nearby to a supermarket.
All the people I know are punting in the stock market. I am waiting to see my shoeshine boy starts pumping all his cash into the stock market. 🙃🤣
Inflation measurements should be taken from San Francisco. Everything is very expensive here.
Deflation! EXCELLENT!
In EUrope crypto over 1000 Euros must already be reported. Or else ... 60 hives?!?! WTH!
The fed creates the bubbles by inflating which altimately burst causing a depression. Edward G. Griffins book The creature from jekyll Island explains this.
If there was deflation the government debt would be so astronomical relative to already how astronomical it already is
He called 20 of the last 2 recessions
Fiscal dominance is real. Basically $1 trillion USD in interests payments is sloshing around trying to be spent. It’s like a perpetual Federal Reserve interest rate cut (FNA economic stimulus).
Nope, equities will only go higher!
@mxoldtimer4braaappp858
13 күн бұрын
If they cut ; stocks will go down
Ha ha. David went out for a few last night.
@wakethebarbarian4577
13 күн бұрын
He's a great interviewer. But yeah.
"part of that whole yale thing."
He likes the dollar and treasuries 😂
I agree with him on some points, but this guy seems to think that cheap buggy whips are at attractive values, because these newfangled horseless carriages don't have anything pulling them.
“Good luck” is an awful answer to a very credible question.
Interesting
There goes bitcoin. No one could tell me what bitcoin does or how to use it. Except trade it like playing cards on a screen.
you can always trust Gary Shilling
Problem is the FED Powell is a disgrace
What will stocks crash into?? The dollar is not backed by gold anymore.
The value of an immutable honest ledger and a fixed supply that won't be manipulated escapes this old fart. Like there is substance to the dollar.
This guy has been calling collapse since the day he was born!
The value is that Bitcoin is not controlled by a central group. That is why they do not like it.. they cannot control it.
Its like listening to Charlie Munger😂.... rest in peace
David looks sick. Hope you feel better!
"stocks are..." is an imprecise position to start with. Which ones? The sp500 is dominated by a few. The rest of the market is so diverse that it makes no sense to me to talk about "the stocks".
"I'm neutral, Fed said they'd bail out".... That would mean bearish. They don't bail out when everything is hunky dory mate.
There is blood in the street from the treasuries bond perspective, couple are death and others are slowly bleeding