Kyle Bass On Energy, China, Inflation, And More
Texas-based hedge fund manager J. Kyle Bass, the founder and chief investment officer of Hayman Capital Management and founder of private equity firm Conservation Equity Management, joins Julia La Roche for a wide-ranging discussion on macroeconomics, geopolitics, and investment opportunities.
Regarding macroeconomics, Europe is facing one of the worst winters of high power prices ever due to its overreliance on Russia and policies pushed by shareholders, NGOs, and teenagers. As a result, Bass expects Europe to see a meaningful recession. What's more, he believes the solution to the mess in the short-to-intermediate term is more hydrocarbons and embracing nuclear energy in the long term.
Bass, a long-time critic of China, discusses why he thinks China will invade Taiwan. He also highlights how the Chinese economy is "circling the drain," and the banking system is hyper-levered, especially in real estate. He notes that investors should probably sell Chinese equities to limit the "risk to a genocidal regime that's likely to become militaristically belligerent."
The U.S. is still in the best position globally, according to Bass. His macro take is to expect a sharp recession, and depending on how aggressive the Federal Reserve is with its rate hikes; they could make it worse. Bass expects the U.S. to come out of that recession, and the Fed will cut rates by the end of next year or early 2024 and expand its balance sheet again. As a result, Bass is interested in hard, productive assets like rural land that can can generate superior returns that outpace inflation.
0:00 Intro
0:31 Energy is the ‘gorilla in the room’
1:40 A green plan pushed by NGOs, well-placed teens
2:11 Europe’s likely to see ‘meaningful recession’
3:20 Origins of Europe’s energy crisis
7:29 Energy crisis impact on consumers
10:54 Need to drill for more hydrocarbons now
11:40 Nuclear is the answer, but it’s 7-10 years away
12:27 Sophisticated investment plays in oil and gas
14:23 Oil companies as an investment play
15:33 The Fed is focused in the wrong place
17:28 A sharp recession
19:15 The Fed will be cutting rates in 12-18 months
22:30 U.S. LNG exports
25:39 Our democracy is at a fundamentally important inflection point
27:16 Major policy reversal needed to ramp up U.S. drilling
30:22 Risk of China invading Taiwan
39:36 China’s economy ‘is circling the drain’
42:17 Risk of owning Chinese equities
43:34 U.S. is in ‘best position’ of any country for investors
47:15 Macro picture in the U.S.
48:32 Opportunities in owning land
52:22 Update on the HKD/USD thesis
#kylebass #energy #china #naturalgas #hydrocarbons #nuclear #energycrisis #inflation #federalreserve #recession ##taiwan
Пікірлер: 45
Be sure to subscribe to the channel for more long-form interviews. And feel free to let me know if you have guest ideas! julia@julialaroche.com. Grateful for the support. ☺🙏
This is an amazing conversation. Everyone needs to see this to understand the state of energy, inflation as well as a little history. Well done Julia
@TheJuliaLaRocheShow
Жыл бұрын
Appreciate you, Bret!
Bravo! One will learn more here within an hour than a whole life of CNBC.
@TheJuliaLaRocheShow
Жыл бұрын
Thank you, Polemos!
Always look for conversations with Kyle. I like his spin.
@TheJuliaLaRocheShow
Жыл бұрын
Thank you so much, Richard! Glad you enjoyed the interview. I'll bring Kyle back on soon. 🙏
That was the best interview with Kyle that I've seen. Good job.
@TheJuliaLaRocheShow
Жыл бұрын
Thank you so much, James! Kyle is brilliant. I'll have to get him back on the show again.
380 subscribers and you’re pulling Kyle Bass and Hugh Hendry? 381.
@TheJuliaLaRocheShow
Жыл бұрын
Thanks, Rob! Just getting started :)
I’m a big KB fan. Thanks for this!
Great interview...kyle on fire !! True all !!
Keep up the good work - the word will spread about this channel. You are getting some great guests on the show and you ask good questions which shows you have prepared properly.
@TheJuliaLaRocheShow
Жыл бұрын
Thank you so much, RRR.
Suggestion: Bill Gross could be a fantastic guest. I'd like to see an interview with the Bond King.
@TheJuliaLaRocheShow
Жыл бұрын
I'll ask! I've never interviewed him.
Epic! Thank you guys.
Thanks. Keep bettering. Good luck
I like bass! But disappointed how he praised ESG ! That’s not capitalism …. It’s fiat governance
Julie Watch teal visions Maggie Lake..one of the most astute interviewers out there
when was this interview taken place? before JH speech made by the fed chair or?
@TheJuliaLaRocheShow
Жыл бұрын
Hi, We taped it on the afternoon of Aug. 31 and ran it on Sept. 1 in the morning.
@liyexiang666
Жыл бұрын
@@TheJuliaLaRocheShow cool, great content u have here. eagar to see u sit down with more successful investors. i don't know if u interviewed Stanley Drunkenmiller before, that would be a cracker
Wish I could buy shares of this podcast...
@TheJuliaLaRocheShow
Жыл бұрын
Thank you so much!!
Don't you think that Russia's lack of a quick slam dunk in Ukraine might dissuade China from proceeding with a Taiwan take over?
@linmal2242
Жыл бұрын
I think that it will observe carefully and prepare more, especially against Western sanctions. It will still invade.
KB needs to be Trump's second term finance secretary.
Kyle doesn't think China's big dependance on imported energy, food & metals might cause them to avoid sanctions by foregoing. a Taiwan invasion.
21:50, Julia, please call out your guests when they start spewing drivel. The guy says America is a democracy, but we were never intended to be one. We are a *REPUBLIC* ffs. Otherwise, your interview was good enough to want to hear you talking with other guests. But don't let them say stupid shit uncontested. Subscribed!
Let's pretend that AGW isn't real. Just fabulous policy so far. LOL Let's pretend that the imperfect is the enemy of science and common sense.
Kyle run for president bro
Real vision Maggie Lake
Tjis guy is a joke right from the start
Nice interview. But Bass painting countries like Russia as "communist" just shows his laziness in talking about Geopolitics. His political bias is also apparent throughout. Stick to facts Bass, not your interpretations and political biases... You really should get Peter Zeihan on for an interview! Next level!
@TheJuliaLaRocheShow
Жыл бұрын
Sent a request to Peter's team. Really enjoyed his book and would love to get him on the show. Thank you so much!
@pauldevincenti9427
Жыл бұрын
Zeihan is a tool. He is a propaganda arm of US misguided policy
@josephmelton4721
Жыл бұрын
Hahaha Peter is a covid fanboy. Literally just justified chinas totalitarian lockdowns on twitter yesterday. He’s garbage.
Um do you like what do you like think about like maybe um China?
@TheJuliaLaRocheShow
Жыл бұрын
Hi Stefan, Thanks for watching. You're right - I'm not a macro expert, nor do I claim to be one. I started this channel a couple of months ago, and I'm trying to learn by inviting some of the best and brightest folks I know and listening to them talk (not me). And, yes, I get nervous too! I plan to have more macro guests, investors, public company CEOs, academics, and more on this channel. I'm always learning and trying to improve.