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S&P500突破5500点，纳斯达克突破18300点，席勒市盈率(Shiller P/E)已经超过36倍，估值已经太高。历史上席勒市盈率超过30倍的，只有1929大萧条，2000互联网泡沫和2021年股市崩盘，每一次都给投资者带来了巨大损失。面对股市高估值，大家在赚钱的同时，开始有点莫名担心，市场这么疯狂，到底是可持续性的，还是随时可能进入暴跌模式呢？先锋领航(Vanguard)预测未来10年美国资本市场平均年化回报只有3.4%-5.4%，贝莱德(BlackRock)5月最新分析报告同样预测未来10年的股市平均回报只有5.4%。美股平均年回报2位数的时代真的过去了吗？另一方面，美联储不断向市场释放信号，说会降息，但就是不降，难道高通胀高利率的时代真的已经来了吗？决定未来10年市场走势的神奇数字，先锋领航和贝莱德预测的基础到底是什么？我们普通投资者2024-2025年应该怎么投资呢？
00:00 紧急通知! 世界进入全新经济周期!
01:35 中性利率 (Neutral Interest Rate / R-Star)
05:51 中性利率上升影响股市
08:07 未来股市增长降低
08:46 市场泡沫还是正常
11:07 2024-2025如何投资
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