We're here for your brain, not your graphics. 💙💛💙💛

@mark8544

11 ай бұрын

Perfectly put.

@sjmurphysj39

11 ай бұрын

What are you, a zombie? Braiiiiins lol

@rositasultana3958

11 ай бұрын

​@@sjmurphysj39 hahaha! Got me, guys😂😂😂

@sebastianeckert1947

11 ай бұрын

Delicious brain

@PpAirO5

11 ай бұрын

​@@sjmurphysj39.. I was about to state that 😄

I don't mind at all when you skip too much editing, graphics and backgrounds when you don't actually need it. Your analysis are great and that's what I come for

@b_lumenkraft

11 ай бұрын

+1 !!

@angrydoggy9170

11 ай бұрын

You really get exited by a high quality analysis if you come for it.🤪 But I agree, it’s why I visit this channel as well, the other stuff is just a boon.

@Peteorama

11 ай бұрын

Yeah full agreement, couldn't have said it any better myself.

@kaerscarface

11 ай бұрын

If there would be ppl like Anders Puck Nielsen in sweden, even the sweds could have been a wonderful, bright and humorous people....

@CarlCalle

11 ай бұрын

​@@kaerscarface naaah. Don't judge us all that way! Even Swedes have started to wake up in my experince. Long overdue for sure. Slava Ukraini! 🇸🇪🇺🇦

"Due to some combination of incompetence" is the only bite-sized statement that gives a reasonable picture of every single decision Russia has made during this conflict, including launching the invasion in the first place.

@justinbrown691

11 ай бұрын

People often talk about how you shouldn't assume malice when incompetence is available as a solution, but they forget that malice and incompetence are not mutually exclusive. They may have been rigging explosives to destroy the dam and made a mistake. Rigging, inspecting and removing explosives isn't safe and you need real professionals to lower that danger to a reasonable level.

@garethmartin6522

11 ай бұрын

This is a tremendously stupid mistake to make.

@toraxmalu

11 ай бұрын

@@garethmartin6522 oh - spite and incompetence can lead to "interessting effects" sometimes…

@garethmartin6522

11 ай бұрын

@@toraxmalu When you assume your enemy is stupid, you are always making a terrible mistake.

@toraxmalu

11 ай бұрын

@@garethmartin6522 I don’t assume the russian as stupid in general. that they have clever engineers, well, have a look at the mentioned dam - not a simple feed to achieve. but when out of spite and / or incompetence a higher-up don’t listen to the grunts and their warnings, catastrophie is the result. and the russian had the controll over the dam gates and kept them closed and seems without having an eye on the water level in the resovior and the technical needs of the dam construction itself.

"Maybe they were just drunk"... the fact that this qualifies as legitimate military analysis is a mind boggling indictment on the Russian military

@arthurmoore9488

11 ай бұрын

Right. I know it's true, but I still had to do a double take at Anders of all people offering that as a legit explanation.

@julianbrelsford

11 ай бұрын

Tl;dr version of this video seems to be Russia does smart rational stuff and stupid irrational stuff. This event tips the scale way further toward the "stupid irrational" side, so much so that we're speculating it could have been a result of drunkenness, a miscommunication about or failure to follow orders, or something like that."

@garykempen

11 ай бұрын

That I considered it seriously and not as a joke speaks a lot to their reputation here in the West... 😮

@geopolitix7770

11 ай бұрын

@Julian Brelsford I don't think its so much of a tilting scale between "mythical strategic genius" on one end and "we're lucky they're so f***ing stupid" on the other. I feel that all those possibilities exist and it's more of a dartboard as to which one rolls around at a given moment. In reality this is rank incompetence and corruption battled by the occasional expert and diligent worker. Sometimes "Russia stronk!" overpowers the normal person.

@tessjuel

11 ай бұрын

Of course. But on a sidenote, if we go back in history it's amazing how often it has been a legitimate military analysis. Look up the 1788 Battle of Karánsebes for an extreme example.

We appreciate your thinking more than nice graphics - thank you Anders 👍

@larsrons7937

11 ай бұрын

I 100% agree. Nice graphics is just a nice topping, Anders' analyses is the central thing. And Anders is good at giving us things to think about, and making us wiser too.

@peterbluesman

11 ай бұрын

There is very poor thinking going on here, I’m not sure graphics’s would have made any kind of difference 😂

Your point that they squandered this as an emergency option was excellent, thanks for making that point.

@ETBrooD

11 ай бұрын

"Squandered" implies Russia has the privilege of waiting. I don't think they can wait, they have to relieve as many fronts as possible immediately.

@aleksanderfradkin7955

11 ай бұрын

Decree of the Gov't of the Russia of May 30,2023 No. 873: "Until January 1, 2028, due to the economic situation, the investigation of accidents at hazardous facilities and hydraulic structures, due to war, sabotage and terrorist attacks, IS NOT CARRIED OUT!"

@aleksanderfradkin7955

11 ай бұрын

All there is to know about Putin's mordor.

@Homobikerus

11 ай бұрын

​​@@aleksanderfradkin7955 that's the only valid point in support of theory that Russia did it I've seen so far. And a strong one! Although, the part "due to economic situation" doesn't exist in the actual text of decree. Which creates some doubts.

@terjeoseberg990

11 ай бұрын

@@ETBrooD, They’re only delaying the inevitable.

Turkey's proposal to have the dam investigated by a multi national team (incl Ukrainian and Russian specialists) was welcomed by Zelensky but refused by Putin. This is telling enough I believe.

@Mike-zx1kx

11 ай бұрын

POOtin called Erdogan 2 days ago and according to widespread media reports allegedly denied Russia were behind. POOtin´s refusal of an investigation tells everything we need to know. As a sideremark I cant help but appreciate that POOtin now have significantly less room to operate in, when he are a sought after war criminal. Not much prestige, even in Russia, to travel to the little fatling in North Korea, Chemical weapons against own population, dictator Assad and Lukachenko got poisoned last time he visited POOtin, so guess his normal row of automatic invitations, as POOtin puppet, could be affected as well. Seeing Russian decisions like this, on a spur, off course could be an indication to also escalate further into ordering nuke use, as they get slammed on the battlefield BUT should POOtin give such an order even the FSB will KNOW that if they do not immediately blast POOtin´s head of, should he give such an order, not one of them will ever see their family again and Russia will become an instant nuclear holocaust themselves, no matter if he orders one or 1000 nukes sent.. MAD stands! The time has come for the West to bring own forces to Ukraine. We cannot spend much more time watching this ongoing atrocity.

@adamsalassi8036

11 ай бұрын

Bingo

@dee-vee

11 ай бұрын

Can you provide first-hand sources for this?

@johnathanhughes9881

11 ай бұрын

@@dee-vee Obviously not, since they weren't present. BUT . . Zelenskyy has made no secret of the fact that he's keen. So the ball is in Putin's court. Truth be told I'm expecting nothing. . .

@dadananda

11 ай бұрын

Putin had to refuse as it would be against the law for him to have agreed. Just last week, Putin signed an order stating that any investigation of any damage to any infrastructure in the occupied regions due to whatever cause, has to wait until 2028. So, according to Russian law, Putin was not able to agree to the dam investigated....

Listening to Anders for 10 minutes is better than listening to the old US generals for an hour. And learning much more. He sees all aspects down to the earth not only from a military aspect, but also the humanitarian conditions in the situation. Thanks Anders. No wonder that they keep wanting heads of NATO from Scandinavia

@greenling.

11 ай бұрын

And field commanders from Ukraine wouldn't harm either 😉

@toto-yf8tc

11 ай бұрын

Except he forgot to explain you why Russians destroyed the dam instead of opening the locks

@lukasriha6007

11 ай бұрын

@@toto-yf8tc Right, but it's not a very smart question. Do you think that if they opened the dam and caused a humanitarian disaster on both sides of the river, that it could be blamed on Ukraine? Don't forget, this is the most Internet war in history. So public opinion matters.

@maxodgaard1335

11 ай бұрын

@@toto-yf8tc locks can be closed again.....🤓

@davidsnedeker8098

11 ай бұрын

becuz scandos were so militarily effective in wwii? or are you referring to ss nordland?

You have really no idea about how eagerly I was waiting for your analysis

@loduke3905

11 ай бұрын

Same

@eugene7309

11 ай бұрын

Yeah, and the analysis did not disappoint! Russians flooded their territory, destroyed their military fortifications and made it easy for Ukrainians to attack across the river during counter offensive because they are stupid! Brilliant!

You’re great at explaining the hard to understand circumstances that arise in this crazy war.

@BigDsGaming2022

11 ай бұрын

he is the best

@Disinformation_Hoax

11 ай бұрын

If by explaining you mean giving esoteric pseudo-scientific explanations that are actually quite hilarious. But when you have to fit the events to a certain narrative, that's what happens. Hs theories of course in no way reflect the realities of this conflict. But that's obviously not his aim.

Absence of fancy graphics makes your analysis even more compelling and trustworthy in my opinion. Greetings from Scotland.

As I wrote in a post yesterday. During the Soviet era, soviet forces had a substantial scientific corp. This all but disappeared after the break-up of Russia. So the West put quite some money into Russia - supporting glaciologists, periglacial scientists, hydrologists etc etc etc. I know this because I worked with them - both on translating key Soviet-era scientific reports - but also to make Soviet data available to the international community. (There is a reason why global temperature records changed slightly in the 1990s - scientists got loads better data from significant areas of the planet). Here is my hypothesis - Russia does not have a military scientific corp to talk about. We can be 100% certain that they did not ask civilian scientists to conduct a report of the fast and slow consequences of breaching the dam - as they excel at paranoia. Also - hydrologists, ecologists, climatologists agricultural scientists (etc etc etc) would have said "No, njet, nada". Partly because there is more than a 50% chance that Crimea is destined to become a permanent desert in the next year or two. Even after the occupation in 2014 did Crimea deteriorate significantly with a hefty negative evaporation/precipitation balance. Here is the likely scenario. Russians would of course consider blowing the dam as a defensive tool. I am sure that Ukrainians also have considered this option everywhere. But Ukrainians would make a consequence report. The Russian army does have an engineer corp. But they are engineers, with the know-how to blow stuff up and/or to set up masts, bridges, bunkers, build trenches and more operational "war stuff". They correctly calculated that it would take a lot of explosives. This dam held back approximately 16,694,094,724 Tons of water. That is close to 17 Trillion tons (not litres - TONS) of water. You are not breaching that with a few MLRS or storm-shadow missiles. Best way to blow this dam up? The thumb of rule - put a lot of explosives in the turbine rooms. Anyone wants to tell me that Ukrainian smuggled tons of explosives into the turbine rooms of the Russian-controlled dam? We are then talking about a bigger achievement in the anti-nuclear attack on the Rjukan heavy water factory during WW2 (Operation Gunnerside) My final point - even if the Russian armed forces had hydrologists with them - we have seen the quality of their maps since the beginning of the war. I doubt they have access to high-fidelity 3-D digital topographical models to help them evaluate where 17 Trillion tons of water would go. A final point of consideration: Did the group holding (and blowing up the dam) any idea where the people holding the southern front had placed their minefields? With the level of paranoia, we know exists? I am not even sure troops below the dam knew it was going to blow. This fiasco smells of incompetence, lack of command structure and large-scale oversight. Anyone thinking about unleashing 17 trillion tons of anything on their own land would think things through. People who are on record stating they want to eradicate a neighbour might not bother with that.

@SianaGearz

11 ай бұрын

Thank you

@neiltitmus9744

11 ай бұрын

Russia had a accident in a turbine house and and it accidentally killed 80 people

@RafaelRodrigues-zw3eb

11 ай бұрын

Thanks for your thoughts. I heard that there is a lack of proper mapping and comunnication about the mined fields within the Rússia forces. This fact leads to some recent accidents of russian operators blowing up on top of their own mine fields.

@iksander70

11 ай бұрын

Be cautious attributing to malice that which can be explained by incompetence. Or incompetence is a good cover story.

@oldernu1250

11 ай бұрын

This is a great analysis. Kremlin propagandists have urged destruction of Ukrainian dams since invasion. Why? Just a impediment to the expected offensive. Russia has no credibility. FSB imperialists should be stripped of every asset--hire financial trackers on commission.

You are my number one source when it comes to Ukrainian war. Thank you

@Vhalikuporamee447

11 ай бұрын

I love Anders' content, but I also suggest watching Perun. He's much longer form, but is still incredibly information dense and does well at conveying it to the viewer. Excellent channel.

@wmp3346

11 ай бұрын

@@Vhalikuporamee447 will do

@rositasultana3958

11 ай бұрын

Perun is Sunday 's high point. Also William Spaniel, although he posts rarely .

@eblita3698

11 ай бұрын

@@Vhalikuporamee447 I wonder how Anders has time to do this at all as he and his co-workers are in Danish media all the time explaining, -whileas they have their full time jobs at the academy at the same time

@ninatouchdown2500

11 ай бұрын

​@@eblita3698 They don't make daily update specials right now, only when something really important happens, like the Nova Kakhova Dam. But when the offensive comes, Anders will have his work cut out for him. He is my favorite military analyst on this war.

It is first time I have ever heard you get emotional. We should not forget how big of a catastrophe this is

@eblita3698

11 ай бұрын

We Danes get emotional when it comes to the Russians. They stayed for another year on a Danish Island after ww2 had ended. And ever since, even after the cold war, the Russian military pilots still were showing off into Danish zones on an almost weekly basis. Got the sense that they hadn't changed attitude at all

@andersjjensen

11 ай бұрын

I had the good fortune of training the first two batches of Estonian lads who came to Denmark for military training in '97. The Nordics entered into a mutual security agreement with the Baltics way way before they even joined the EU and NATO. The experiences the Estonians shared with me about what it was like to be an ethnic Estonian in an army where every officer was ethnic Russian made my blood boil. If you think Hitlers nonsense about the Aryan Race was bad, wait until you find out how ethnic Moscovites see themselves.... My heart bleeds for everyone who's been under the Russian boot. If I hadn't been retired with PTSD from a blast accident I would be in Ukraine fighting these assholes.

@soul0360

11 ай бұрын

@@andersjjensen Having had had severe PTSD for over a decade, and being 75% disabled because of it. I won't encourage anyone going to war, unless absolutely nessary. Like I would have, prior to being diagnosed, and understanding how messed up my brain is, because of combat. But I understand and respect your centiment. I've also worked with our Baltic allies for long periods of time, during my service. Several of which I'd love to call friends, though staying in touch is hard for me these days. I've stayed in all 3, and most other ex-Soviet NATO aligned countries. Both during service and as a civilian. I've meet lots of people. The stories I've been told, is 100% in line with what you say. But hearing the details, is a lot worse, then what your single comment or mine can convey. The people of the remaining Russian incorporated lands, need to rise up, remove their shackles, and demand their freedom from the Moscovite elite. So we can welcome them back into the global community, and they can prosper. Hopefully the follies in Ukraine, can show them. That Moscow isn't as strong and unbeatable an opponant, as they have been brought to believe.

@gorillaguerillaDK

11 ай бұрын

@@andersjjensen Sure they were the first? I remember we had some soldiers from one of the Baltic States in Holstbro in the early part of 95 taking part in the preparations for what ended up as the last UNPROFOR deployment!

@andersjjensen

11 ай бұрын

@@gorillaguerillaDK Correction: The first two batches at Prinsens in Viborg. It's been a "little while" so I'm not going to put the chips down on whether they were the first Estonians flat out.

Very interesting quote from 10:12: "I think it is hard to see a big strategic calculation for why this was a smart thing to do for Russia. In fact I think it was a stupid thing, not just because of all the damage that they made, also just for a purely military point of view" That pretty much sums up the whole russian operation in Ukraine so far ... Also, a few sentences later: "... or maybe they was just drunk" Which is probably the plain and simple explaination for a lot of actions from the russian military forces so far.

@KasumiRINA

11 ай бұрын

Yeah, I love when russians and even worse, russophiles, claim that "russia won't do that because it doesn't benefit them"... you mean like invading Ukraine in 2014? Or like annexing Crimea legally instead of claiming it's independent like South Osetia and Abkhazia? Or like coming clear and openly invading in 2022? Nothing they do makes logic... unless their only goal is genocide, of course. Now "final solution to Ukrainian question" said on russian TV makes sense, especially when their propagandist calls to _drown Ukrainian children._

@tomk3732

11 ай бұрын

Which shows why it could not be Russia. They have nothing at all to gain from this. Its a disaster for them. Dozens of civilians killed. 1000s of troops needed to run. Lots of equipment lost. Lots of positions lost. Defensive mine fields lost. etc. etc.

@MarquisVincentBissetdeGramont

11 ай бұрын

Hateful (r.acist?) stereotypes against another people are not arguments 🙄

@leisti

11 ай бұрын

@@MarquisVincentBissetdeGramont It's not a stereotype if it's true.

Nicely done, Mr Nielsen. You do better on an impromptu analysis than most commentators do with many hours of preparation. Your analysis is always edifying.

Thank you very much of your measured response to this tragedy. There is a lot of emotional commentary on both sides and your commentary is very much needed. This is a catastrophe that will take years for Ukraine to recover from.

@angrydoggy9170

11 ай бұрын

If only we can get Russia out, rebuilding it could be done pretty fast.

@rabbi120348

11 ай бұрын

​@@angrydoggy9170How much Russian criminal behavior do we have to put up with before we just confront them with overwhelming force?

@RobertSeviour1

11 ай бұрын

@@rabbi120348 Faced with overwhelming force, Putin will use nukes and to hell with the consequences.

@thomasherrin6798

11 ай бұрын

​@@rabbi120348 It would be best to provide Ukraine with a bunch of defence equipment as they can carry out the task themselves, more munitions, artillery and long range missiles seem to be the biggest improvement along with better surveillance drones to spot the enemy, a few more mobile air defence systems near the frontline would help also!?!

@rabbi120348

11 ай бұрын

@@thomasherrin6798 Agreed, but Russia, incompetent as it may be, can still bring a level of pressure to bear that may need more deterrence than Ukraine alone can provide, even with sufficient Western help. Like Finland in 1940. "The Finns fought valiantly and earned the admiration of the West," but ultimately just got crushed by a much larger and better-armed power. And at some point, if the disparity in size between bully and victim is great enough, it requires the victim's big brother to step in and give the bully an attitude adjustment. The other side is, it's simply insulting to the world's conscience that Russia can just be allowed to brutalize another people. And it would be a good shot across the bow for China (and even for Iran). In an ideal world, Ukraine would be able to handle Russia on its own. But I worry that if we deter ourselves that the end will "not necessarily be favorable to our side."

I would rule out the possibility of an accident, because the Russians first let the water levels rise to a record level in the days before the detonation ...

@Mike-zx1kx

11 ай бұрын

The "revenge decision on a spur" from inside Kremlin seems more likely and very Russian. They are experts in peeing in their pants. You know, the short feeling of warmth followed by a long unpleasant experience.

@dinodudedanny6324

11 ай бұрын

If the dam was damaged when the russians seized it way back when, and the russians (incompetent as they are) did a bad job at repairing and maintaining it, it is possible that the increased water levels could have been what caused a breach, but I think this is an unlikely scenario, I think russia did this aswell due to sheer panic, desperation or maybe even just pure anger.

@deepinthewoods8078

11 ай бұрын

@@dinodudedanny6324 Yep... classical Russian scorched earth tactics. And it shows to me that the Russians don't believe they can hold on to that part of Ukraine...

@anotherelvis

11 ай бұрын

The dam broke in two places at the same time, so I think that it must have been explosives.

@1djbecker

11 ай бұрын

@@anotherelvis There were explosion-like events recorded by seismic monitors. Erosion or similar failures would have started small, causing minimal seismic activity.

I was waiting for your take on this, very good and clear analysis as usual! Many thanks!

@eugene7309

11 ай бұрын

Russians flooded their territory, destroyed their military fortifications and made it easy for Ukrainians to attack across the river during counter offensive because they are stupid. Brilliant analysis!

I think it simply was a result of lack of maintenance and incompetence. Dams are not necessarily as stable as one might think and the forces dams hold back are immense!

@byakka

11 ай бұрын

This ☝️

Thanks for the quick analysis!

Thank you Anders

Excellent analysis. I agree with you on the likely etiology of the dam destruction. In order of likelihood, I would say its 1:) strategic incompetence 2:) Miscommunication blunder 3:) Panic 4:) drunken accident

Congratulations on 100K+ Anders! So good to see!

The most sane analysis yet. Thanks Anders.

@eugene7309

11 ай бұрын

Russians flooded their territory, destroyed their military fortifications and made it easy for Ukrainians to attack across the river during counter offensive because they are stupid. Brilliant analysis!

@515coldfire

11 ай бұрын

Lol for not so sane people

@dpelpal

11 ай бұрын

@@515coldfire Like putin thinking he could take "KYiv in threeeeeee dayyyyyyys!!!!" 🤣 What a mutt lol

@Janshevik

11 ай бұрын

Anders: destroying the dam benefits Russians Also Anders: this was stupid move by Russians

@danrooc

11 ай бұрын

@@Janshevik AND HE'S RIGHT. RUSSIANS PROVED ONCE AND AGAIN HOW PRONE THEY ARE TO STUPID MILITARY MOVES.

One of the more reliable Ukraine sites reported: Ukraine troops were assembled on some of the islands. Russian troops were told to retreat "in 2 hours, not 3 days". Which implies some action was planned, but events overtook the plan. A local Russian leader appeared on TV to say that nothing had happened as reports came in, only to return 1 hour later to blame Ukraine for the disaster. Again events overtook a plan. Which supports your current opinion that it was a mistake. The plan could have been to open the sluices, the dam was overflowingly full. Maybe lack of maintenance or the extreme depth of water meant they wouldn't open, who'll ever know? Then the dam was blown, perhaps attempting just to blow the sluices? My speculation of course. BTW: the same site reported that the nuclear plant can pump water from the river if needed, which is only necessary to top up evaporation. It doesn't need the reservoir at all. Ref: "Reporting from Ukraine" kzread.info/dash/bejne/hIWWs7qOqMnOd7A.html

@youtubeurevil

11 ай бұрын

Good comment ! I can confirm this as I saw same info from ukranian sources

@barthoving2053

11 ай бұрын

I also heard the theory that the plan was to blow only a small hole to let the Dnipro rise a little and for longer. If that was the case, then probably a hydro-engineer was not consulted. Of course even with the sluices fully open for a longer amount of time minor damage to the sluice walls that on the first glance seemed superficial, could be a weak spots that the water pressure turned into fatal damage within hours.

@advancetotabletop5328

11 ай бұрын

Good work. Reporting in Ukraine and The Enforcer have good coverage of the dam break as well.

@advancetotabletop5328

11 ай бұрын

Reporting, I think, is in error with the cooling pond. The pond has months of water, but, per The Enforcer who has done some research on other nuclear reactors, you need *years* of cooling for reactor rods, even those not in service. ):

@oohhboy-funhouse

11 ай бұрын

@@barthoving2053 You can't just blow a "Small" hole in a dam. The water coming through it has massive forces and will quickly erode the structure. No dam lets water out the centre, that creates a mortal weak point. Even letting water out normally isn't something you do without a plan as poor management can cause erosion.

Excellent comments on this, I always look forward to your videos.

I think you are correct in all your points, except how long the flooding will take to completely drain. I saw on another channel the dam that was destroyed early in the war to protect Kyev and apparently its still swampy around there. But yes, the orcs are totally nuts - there goes the Crimean water supply.

@BetaD_

11 ай бұрын

Yeah I thought so too. Can't imagine for the soil of such a large reservoir to dry up that fast

@nihluxler1890

3 ай бұрын

-Describes the Ukrainian blowing up a dam for strategic purposes. next sentence: « Hey, actually blowing that other dam is actually super bad for the Russians. They’re so stupid to have 100% done just because they’re evil, even though it doesn’t help them in any way »

Thank you for your insight Anders

This simpler (non-green screen) format is great! Great Analysis as always. So happy when you post.

@anderspuck

11 ай бұрын

Thank you. Glad you like it. I’ll consider using this format more and not just as a secondary option. 😊

Puck, thank you for taking the time to do this!! Simper fi, always faithful !

The message is the most important. Never mind the graphics. And this was the best explanation I've seen. Thank you.

If this was not on purpose, which I agree could be the case when you look at the general state of the russian army, I´m even more worried about their presence at the nuclear plant up river 😞

@mikeshoults4155

11 ай бұрын

Exactly! Right? Isn't anyone going to talk about the explosives they rigged to the Nuclear Power Plant? Everyone keeps saying "oh they would never do that" Just like they said about invading Ukraine and about blowing up the dam... So yeah.... What are we going to do about those explosives in the Nuclear Power Plant ?

@rositasultana3958

11 ай бұрын

You hit the nail in the head. I don't know if I'm more afraid of their malevolence, or their sheer ineptitude 😮.

@angrydoggy9170

11 ай бұрын

If the Russians breach the cooling pond, the nuclear plant will have no cooling water. Luckily the reactors have been shut down and only one is still in hot shutdown.

@tomk3732

11 ай бұрын

Russia army seems to be in great state - look how they smashed Ukrainian offensive!!! Leopards burning together with Bradly IFVs.

@Kakker71

11 ай бұрын

@@tomk3732 You talk about that one incident? Sure there are losses in an offensive, and someone fucked up. it happens. Anyway lets see how it goes the next couple of weeks. You want Putin to win? If so, why? He invaded a country to grab land he had no right to.

It's always fascinating to listen to your sharp analysis. Almost all media coverage just goes hyper crazy with all kind of wild speculations. Cheers.

@ulrikschackmeyer848

11 ай бұрын

Yes, he's i pretty bright bulb, isn't he?

@Lost-In-Blank

11 ай бұрын

Agreed. I follow the war on three KZread channels, one retired USAF, one Lithuanian living in Denmark, and one Ukrainian. And the other three have so much propaganda mixed in with their good info I often wonder if I'm wasting my time. Still, they're better than the CBC, CNN, or other TV. Anders, your channel is by far the best in not having propaganda.

@larsrons7937

11 ай бұрын

And unbiased too. A rarity these days (Perun is another unbiased one).

@Disinformation_Hoax

11 ай бұрын

Wait, this chnnel is not about wild speculations? (Hilarious pseudo-scientific drivel to fit a certain narrative. Come off it)

@larsrons7937

11 ай бұрын

Anders Puck Nielsen is Naval Military Analyst in the Danish Defense. His analyses are solely that, analysis with expertise in the field. He never fails to mention whenever something is his personal opinion. The rest is pure analysis. That's what make his uploads unbiased. Carlos, he said it was a quick upload; so don't expect a video he has been working on for weeks. And, like always, did state what was his own opinion. It is not pseudo-scientific, and not made to fit any narrative, except his own.

Minor english gripe: The the dam was “rigged” with explosives,it wasn’t being “mined” I appreciate the rest of the analysis.

I always appreciate your content. Peter Zeihan's view (long before the Nova Kakhovka dam was blown up) was that Russia would attack the agricultural infrastructure of Ukraine. Blowing up the dam decimates the productive potential of the south of Ukraine, incl Crimea. Accordingly, even if the Russians had to withdraw from the area, they would leave Ukraine with relative wasteland.

@MusicalMemeology

11 ай бұрын

Short term yes but they’ve essentially destroyed crimea’s agriculture and it’s water supply. If the Kerch bridge is hit then they’re going to be in a huge mess trying to evacuate hundreds of thousands. It’s almost like the west needs to manage Russia better than Russia is by for example warning for months and months about taking crimea so people can escape.

Drinking water and water for other uses in areas near the lake came from that lake. It will take some time to extend the intake pipes down to a lower level and pump the water up to the water systems.

@tomk3732

11 ай бұрын

New problem for the Russians.

To me the dam destruction is a classic "scorched earth" tactics and it would consume some resources to take care of. Also don't forget that the destruction of the dam also cuts the main water source for Crimea since the dam did feed a canal leading to Crimea.

@cindybraun371

11 ай бұрын

Putin said if he lost territory in Ukraine or Crimea nobody could have it. He is destroying it because he thinks he is losing. How many troops on the Russian occupied were affected. NONE! So now you know who did it! Then the power plant will blow since Russia mined it. When they withdraw it they will melt it down so they can blame Ukraine.. So evil..

@ThePandafriend

11 ай бұрын

Not only that, north and south of the reservoir are also fields which rely on canals coming from the reservoir. A major part of the grain production is gone until another solution is found or a new dam is built.

@initiative_general2227

11 ай бұрын

The thing is, they referendumd the areas they occupy and claim they are part of russia. So, they very much just flooded their own people with that.

@xax8918

11 ай бұрын

Crimea survived since 2014 without it i doubt it’s a very big deal….everyone brings up the crimea canal, it’s affects way more people in Ukraine who rely on it for water and electricity, over 1 million acres of Ukraines best farmland is now fucked and they’ve lost all the power it generated and it will cost over $1bil to fix

@angrydoggy9170

11 ай бұрын

@@nerzhul2455 That missile landing in Poland was a Ukrainian one. Everything else is Russian.

Just my 2 cents: The Kremlin felt the need to show some sort of initiative, progress or success after Ukraine entering Russian territory. So they used the dam to create the impression that they are retaliating and are on the offensive.

@kjensen7819

11 ай бұрын

Exactly. Kremlin hardliners already suggest to bomb all the dams in Ukraine.

@64jcl

11 ай бұрын

But at the same time denying it was them and blaming it on Ukraine? Where is the rationale for this idea then?

@toto-yf8tc

11 ай бұрын

​@@64jcl there is no rational in whatever conspiracy theory is presented. If Russia wanted to do it they would have opened the locks. Over.

@s.z.9579

11 ай бұрын

@@64jcl Valid point. Honestly, I don’t know. But the Russians used ‚green men‘ in the Donbass after 2014. They didn’t take official responsibility for the military actions, but created the image of a strong, powerful and somehow tricky or clever state.

@tomk3732

11 ай бұрын

LOL! The incursion into Belogrod was to cover fall of Bakhmut. It was a butt of jokes on pro Russian channels. Patric L traveled to the area and in English did a whole episode showing that none of claimed areas were taken over by Ukraine.... by actually walking the streets with a camera. Stop trying to blame this on Russia - they are biggest loose in this disaster.

The draining of the reservoir will not reduce the obstacle that the the reservoir provided as reservoirs accumulate silt. The silt will make a crossing of the river, where the reservoir was, nearly impossible for a long time - just a thought.

Thank you for the video! I am happy to see that I am not incompetent myself for not understanding the timing of the destruction. The possibility that you did not entertain is that Russia is now on the logic of scorched earth in order to increase Ukrainian suffering.

@hectorvalenzuela4979

11 ай бұрын

That's what Western propaganda says but it's actually the opposite. Russia could have blown this dam way back when they first invaded, they've been actually trying to minimize unnecessary collateral damage. There's plenty of evidence that the Ukrainians had been bombing the dam since last year. Even the Washington Post wrote a story about Ukraine's planning to destroy the Karkhovka dam in 2022 and bragging about it. The Russians back then announced their fear of the consequences if the dam was destroyed. Remember that the Russians are controlling the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, and this damage will affect how they keep the nuclear plant cool enough. Also, consider that prior to the dam rupture, Kyiv started discharging reservoir upstream, and they've now opened up all 4 dampers to the maximum to maximize the release of water and thus increase the flooding downstream. Destroying the dam also affects Crimea negatively, so why would the Russians do that to themselves? makes no sense. There's plenty of evidence that Ukraine was behind this

@nerzhul2455

11 ай бұрын

Nordstream, Power pIant, missIes in PoIand story aII over again?

@bpj1805

11 ай бұрын

The purpose of scorched earth tactics is not to "increase suffering" per se (if that's a goal at all it's an instrumental goal, not an ultimate goal), but to deny the use of the land to the enemy. Usually for a period longer than the few weeks it will take for these waters to subside.

@thomasherrin6798

11 ай бұрын

​@@nerzhul2455 Wadscollop comrade!?!

@thomasherrin6798

11 ай бұрын

Russia had started the invasion with a scorched earth policy nothing has changed in that regard, look at all the bombed out cities, they have to be charged for all their war crimes and economic ties should remain fractured until the guilty are punished!?!

"I have a hard time thinking that this was a move that a competent military planner would have made." This description is applicable to virtually every move made by Russia from the beginning of this disaster of a war. The word 'freak' in Russian is 'урод.' But its connoted meaning is quite different. It means someone deformed and grotesque. This whole war is what you get when you have deformed and grotesque 'уродов' at the top pushing buttons in a mix of fear and rage.

@zulubeatz1

11 ай бұрын

I am afraid this is exactly how these things happen. Nothing Russia has done recently makes any sense, but they do it anyway. Firing at nuclear plants and bombing Hospitals they are a moronically led herd of misery.

@danielr82

11 ай бұрын

I tend to disagree. - we've heard all winter that the offensive will be in the spring, then we've heard all spring, we're waiting for the ground to dry. We also know that the potential places for offensives were (essentially in the south, in the middle or in the north, Over the river by Kherson (in south), or in Donetsk, or to the west of Kharkiv. - but where the offensive will actually come, nobody knew, Russia needed to spread my forces (and supplies, and weapons) over a very long battle line. (and the liveuamap) had been showing actions all along the front. There has been Ukrainian soldiers on both sides of the river at Kherson, so the possibility of advancement was real, and Russia did seem unable to stop them Except now. if the assault was planned in the south, it is immediately stopped, not just now, but also for many months. it's not going to be a matter of a few days waiting for the flood to subside, the land is being re-saturated as it was at the end of windows when the snows thawed and the rains came, it's been months of waiting for the ground to dry ready for the much fabled "spring offensive, and, now (with almost certainty) it won't come in this region until maybe august (2 months?) perhaps the end of august, at which point the window for movement of heavy vehicles is much reduced. Now the possible places for that much awaited offensive is only to the north (and the liveuamap shows less activity in the south (read Russia conserves ammunition's) and directs it to the north. - if this was a strategy play, it wasn't a bad one, it's reduced the battle lines, eased logistics and taken plays from their enemy. - also damaged infrastructure and displaced civilians. (keep in mind that the floods are not a defense to the artillery/missile range - but there is less Russian activity there now.) it's a make your planning harder win, a reduce my battle lines and make my logistics easier win, a take options away from you (force your strategy) win, for Russia There seem to be a lot of good for Russia come out of this and only a narrowing of possibilities for Ukraine. Then of course it's put the offensive back again, so it is also an action that might limit aid to the country. (limiting the time an offensive could be conducted in, - which will limit the progress, which will make the next US election seem all the more closer, - which may have some quite serious effects on the "largest supplier" will to continue supplying. Aside from potentially loosing a few defensive positions to flood waters (which they may re-occupy later) I don't really see a downside for Russia that would make me call them incompetent's.

@mikeblair2594

11 ай бұрын

@@danielr82 Your last sentence tells me you haven't been paying attention. This whole war (excuse me, the special military operation) has been a clusterfuck for the Russian army. The only reason they took as much in the south is Ukraine had traitors working for Russia in their higher command.

@MaxVerhaag

11 ай бұрын

@@mikecummings6593 and now please provide proof of that statement?

@carstenhansen5757

11 ай бұрын

@@danielr82I'm pretty sure they are waiting for them to have air support. I would assume that is ready soon. They would not in your wildest dream tell you or anyone else, expect maybe the Americans, when they would launch an attack. It's better to keep the enemy on his toes and all over the place.

No one can accuse the Russian military of competency and good organization, especially in this war. But the fact that newly intercepted recorded communications reveal that Russian mechanized forces were told to pull back and leave the front line on the left side of the Dnipro River (mobilized infantry forces were not -- typical Russia), and that the Russian Duma just passed a law last week that any terror attacks on a dam or any energy infrastructure do not need to be investigated does suggest that blowing up the dam was planned. As to the exactly WHEN it was supposed to be blown up... all the options you presented totally make sense. I hadn't thought about the various possibilities of possible Russian premature, um, explosion.

Valuable content as always, thank you!

Amazing as always, thanks for the hard work!

I could listen to you all day long while being blind-fokded and would consider it time well-spent! Thanks for providing impromptu and always informative succinct talks.

Great informative insights, Anders. Many thanks.

Thank you for your analysis of what might have happened. This was the first analysis that actually made sense to me. And thank you for putting this video out quickly without all these fancy maps and graphics.

in the team incompetent versus team evil debate, I am currently trending towards incompetent. Some shmuck was in charge of the dam, and didn't realize, that letting that thing fill up way over it's safe height, after it was already compromised by battle, could lead to omething bad.

@myothersoul1953

11 ай бұрын

A big worry is what will team incompetent do to nuclear power plants even though it is not in their own best interest.

@mrpocock

11 ай бұрын

There are rumours that Russia evacuated their vehicles in the 2 days prior, indicating that it was planned. It may have involved incompetency with the dam burst being more catastrophic than expected.

@skepticalbadger

11 ай бұрын

​@@mrpocock "Rumours".

@elingeniero9117

11 ай бұрын

@@myothersoul1953 Soviet team competent brought us Chernobyl in Ukraine.

@jp8911

11 ай бұрын

Except Team Incompetent lowered the water levels sufficiently low to place charges, then they bragged about placing charges, then raised the water to the highest ever levels which would cause maximum destruction. It was absolutely mined (those explosions were detected too, BTW) by Russia. Maybe they triggered it accidentally or prematurely due to incompetence, but it was 100% caused by Russian explosives.

I think you have a very valid point about the Russian one time option to weaponise that destruction at a time of greater strategic opportunity. Now theyve shot that chance and its one less tool in the box.

I really appreciate hearing your analysis, greetings from Japan!

Best analysis I've heard so far! Mange tak!

Before the dam was blown, Russia was getting hammered on their own state media over their inability to defend Belgorod. This changed the news. Back in September they were getting criticized over Kharkiv, and Nordstream mysteriously blew up.

@ThePaulv12

11 ай бұрын

Yeah, KEN you have a point. The whole thing might've been for the domestic russian audience for the reasons you mention. It seems to me to be the most plausible of all of the theories to me. Whether it's true is another story but this does seem to have the smell of truth to me at least.

@Kinematographer

11 ай бұрын

Didn’t it turn out that Ukrainians blew Nordstream though?

@mduckernz

11 ай бұрын

@@Kinematographer Very shaky evidence for it. They had seemingly considered it, but this is no evidence of it having actually been done. I daresay many states had _plans_ of how to do it - this is a common thing to do, so that if a situation arises where they want to do it, everything has already been figured out for it (like, I think even Germany probably did have plans for it!) There is just as much evidence that Russia did it. Or the US. I doubt we will ever find out for sure, unless someone owns up to it

@JimKalpa-qd9zr

11 ай бұрын

Anything to say about this administration's inability to defend our southern border? And we're not even in a war.😅😅😅😅

@JimKalpa-qd9zr

11 ай бұрын

​@@ThePaulv12you think it's plausible we did it?

Thanks for sharing, as always good from the military perspective :). I would not agree on the ecological and economic impact, this will not be solved in a few weeks. The dam should also have an impact on preventing floods and assist in dry periods especially for farming, thus we are talking here about one of Ukraine's key income.

you are the only source of reliable, undestandable, objective and to the point source of information that i have found, thank you so much for all your work.

Thank you for yet another excellent update, Anders!

I think it is also possible that with all the previous shelling and limited demolition of segments of the dam, a small structural failure of a part of the dam lead to the collapse of one of the interior spaces of the dam where demolition charges were placed by the Russians. While demolition charges would likely not trigger normally under such conditions, it is possible that anti tampering traps or pressure activated anti-tank mines were added to boost the effectiveness of the explosion as they are available in great numbers. These could have triggered, setting off an unintended collapse of the dam. it is also possible that mines placed up river to prevent river boat crossings flowed into the dam after tearing loose from their moorings. I'm not saying these are the most likely, but just another scenario.

@zulubeatz1

11 ай бұрын

Thoughtful points here.

@KasumiRINA

11 ай бұрын

Accidentally exploded exactly when counter-offensive started and within 24 hours Tucker Carlson started a show on Twitter with him and Robert Francis Kennedy Jr. peddling anti-Ukrainian conspiracies on the topic, WHILE New York times makes a propaganda piece about "nAzIs In UkRaInE" and UN with russian propagandists threatens to kill everyone who refuses to speak russian. Amazing coincidence that a worldwide propaganda campaign from Red Cross to United Nations and Elon Musk all started exactly on the day russians ACCIDENTALLY blown up the dam with tons of explosives. Amazing coincidence! They planned this for years, from buying Twitter to installing their puppets in UN and ICRC.

@tomk3732

11 ай бұрын

Remove the "mine" crap and just concentrate on previous shelling and water level as well as luck of maintenance for 30 years.

Thanks for such a quick posting on this.

I really appreciate your concise and organized information videos. THANK YOU !!!

thank you Anders. Always interesting to see your clips.

It’s possible that Russia wanted/needed to pull all of their defensive troops out of the area in order to counter the main offensive in the east. By making that area impassable for a month or two, it could free up a lot of troops to go and fight elsewhere.

@A_p_T53040

11 ай бұрын

Good point, even having just a month to free up half the troops there could seriously impact the coming offensive.

@KasumiRINA

11 ай бұрын

It feels more like a panic response to counter-offensive than thought-out action. Remember DniproHES, or the Yellow River Flooding, none of that really helped to slow the Axis down, but killed a lot of civilians. Same exact idiotic attempt to fight.

@tomk3732

11 ай бұрын

Nope. A lot of Russian troops - even seen by Ukrainians - were killed by flooding waters. No troops were moved from the area - in fact more may need to be added as a lot of defensive positions were wiped out.

Thanks that’s a very concise & clear analysis.

Sane. Rational. Rare. Needed. Valuable assessment.

Thank you for your clear and insightful message. And thank you for dealing with the consequences of the explosion both after and before the damn. It is hard to find information of the upstream effects.

Quite a wise and thorough analysis. Thank you. Charlie, sacramento CA.

Oh Anders, your laser sharp analytical skills make me and my famity always look forward to your next video. It's really addictive to follow your spotless logic and the astutely crafted technique of making complex events simple, fun and fit for the "Russia did it" narrative. I love the way you do it! Thanks for laying one more exciting piece of the puzzle on place. You rock!!!

Excellent analysis of a situation not yet entirely clear.

You explained everything in graphic detail without graphics. Efficient and effective therfore.

I'm looking for the diplomatic consequences. Will China and India start exerting pressure on Putin to end the war? Or, on the other hand, will the General Assembly ask Russia to resign from the U.N.?

@the_rzh

11 ай бұрын

China will under-bid local firms for the dam reconstruction project.

@ulrikschackmeyer848

11 ай бұрын

Will the Global South begin to understand the Russias sweet words of support and good intentions .....cannot be trusted. Russia does not even care enough to try to make desent lies! Is that an ally you want to depend on?

@delfinenteddyson9865

11 ай бұрын

lmao

@angrydoggy9170

11 ай бұрын

There’s no mechanism in place to expel Russia from the UN. As for China and India, unless international pressure gets too high to offset their gains from cheap Russian gas and oil, they won’t do anything.

@Katoshi_Takagumi

11 ай бұрын

Er... no and no, or on the other hand, still no.

These are some of my favorite videos on the internet. I think you have excellent analyses. Having said which... I subscribe to the old maxim: "There are no accidents in the commission of a crime." The Russians might at some point say, "yeah it was our guys who did it, but it was an accident." They didn't mine the dam accidentally. Just a thought.

THANK YOU VERY MUCH for sharing your highly professional view, for clear speak as well as nuances!

Thank you, Anders. AFAIAC, it's your analysis that counts, not the editing or any graphics.

Thank you for this. Every time there is a dramatic event everyone speculates in what sort of 3 dimensional chess strategy was behind it. Sometimes there isn’t one. Sometimes it’s just mistakes and incompetence. I heard another report that Ukrainians saw Russian troops downstream drowning in their trenches because apparently no one warned them the dam was about to blow. That alone made me believe this was incompetence.

@ThePandafriend

11 ай бұрын

The vehicles were driven away though. So that seems a bit suspicious. Maybe they also wanted to copy the (scrapped) Ukrainian plans of causing a minor flood, but I don't see why you'd blow the dam up for this instead of just opening the gates or if it's insufficient destroying them. I'm pretty sure that if you have access to it you can easily destroy it in a more controlled way without explosives

@BaddeJimme

11 ай бұрын

@@ThePandafriend I doubt the gates are that big. Why would the gates be big enough to cause a flood when opened? Who would design it that way?

@landry2125

11 ай бұрын

Excactly. The mess in this war is that there is no real intelligent strategy at all from that side. And that is also a strategy

@scottshawn70

11 ай бұрын

@@BaddeJimme actually thats exactly what the gates are designed to do... to release a ton of water (or even create a flood if need be). The reason is to prevent the destruction of the dam. If the water level surpasses what the damn can hold you have not choice but to open the gates to the maximum to release the pressure on the dam. Unfortunately yes this will create a flood but this is supposed to be only in extreme emergency situations and only to save the dam from collapse. So yet the designers know what they are doing.

@BaddeJimme

11 ай бұрын

@@scottshawn70 If the water level surpasses what the dam can hold it should just flow over the top of the dam.

I am not fully convinced and still feel I am missing something . Your contribution is still important to try to orient oneself in the fog . Thank you .

@andersjjensen

11 ай бұрын

Your problem is that it is hard to convince yourself that Russia, once the brains of the USSR, has deteriorated into a state where incompetence, corruption, "yes-man" syndrome, drunkenness and habitual negligence is so pervasive throughout every link in the entire chain that everything they do seems almost random from the outside. Trying to analyse Russia's actions though a prisem of reason and coherent logic distorts the image more than it clarifies it. If you run though a "checklist" of "inflated ego, spite, pettiness, incompetence and self serving tendencies at the individual level" before you apply rational military strategy, then everything makes whole lot more sense. It's just SCREAMINGLY scary to apply that kind of thinking... to a country that has 6000 nuclear weapons and is lead by an autocrat who refuses to use the internet in any capacity because "it could all be fake".

Thank you for your excellent synopsis of this action. I always appreciate your cool and intelligent analysis.

Thank you for yet another brilliant and thought provoking insight as always. Don't worry about the graphics. It's ur thoughts that have us all here

Your conclusion makes a lot of sense. Seems likely it had been intended to be left behind as a booby-trap for the inevitably liberated Ukraine as it tries to return to civil life, and went off by some accident, mis-speak, dropped fag-end...

@jeffreyadams648

11 ай бұрын

I have it! A drunk tripped the switch.

@mikeblair2594

11 ай бұрын

@@jeffreyadams648 And probably went up with it. Or was ordered to do it. The Russian army, like the Soviet army before them does not reward individual initiative. It was probably ordered from the top.

One of the most sensible analyses I've seen so far. I've also heard speculation that some Russian might have thought a small hole in the dam would cause minor flooding, and so the big flood that followed was a surprise.

Thanks Anders! I listen to your presentations and I always just think: thanks Anders!

Love your analysis. Thoughtful, logical hopeful.

Again thanks!

I read somewhere that Russians wanted some limited damage to the dam so that only the islands in the middle of the river would get flooded and that's it. But they goofed and the damage and flooding was significantly more severe than expected. By the way- Russia was preparing to flood the downstream areas by raising the water level in the reservoir before the explosion. If this is really the case I wonder why the Russia didn't simply use the sluice gates. One possible explanation is that maybe Russia wanted to blame this on Ukraine so they wanted some explosion and some damage in the dam. But they miscalculated...

@ThePandafriend

11 ай бұрын

I don't think any of their supporters would have seen trouble with minor floods. And personally I also think that minor tactical floodings are a tactic which is okay to do. I don't support Russia, but I'm talking from a general point of view.

@hohhan1978

11 ай бұрын

Yes they can just open the fload gates😮‍💨 And Ukraine have uniquely extream immunity for such blames and when russia have presumption of guilt. And russian officials well aware on that. So it just makes 1000 times more sense for ukrainians to explode it, to ge also exclusive control of whole rever and frontline and cause A LOT of economical damage to russia. Just check the map it floaded mainly russia controlled half. And as you can see even without investigation NOBODY can even think that it was not russia.🤨 Such immunity the best source of irresponsibility. Just for the record. When UN requested to investigate dam Ukraine was first to refuse. Think about it!

@gramail2009

11 ай бұрын

Exactly TestTest12332 , my own thoughts...

@oohhboy-funhouse

11 ай бұрын

You can't just blow up a small part of the dam. The water would quickly erode the structure. Even emergency spillways can take damage, and that isn't a ragged hole. If you blow up a dam that lets it over top, it's all or nothing. You can see the not exploded sections getting peeled away at the edge by the force of the water.

@KasumiRINA

11 ай бұрын

This would also explain the UN, Red Cross and others non-response. It's likely they received instructions for trying to tell Ukraine to stop counter-offensive due to russian blackmail but since the dam was destroyed completely, none of these orgs had any other text since russians didn't prepare them for it and just went on with default 'spear russian language or die, Ukrainian Nazis' posting New York times and United Nations did to celebrate the biggest environmental terrorist act since DniproHES done by russians.

Thank you very much for this informative and interesting analysis.

An interesting and thoughtful analysis. Thank you.

I’m not so sure about the situation north of the dam (upstream). The bottom of the drained lake will consist of years of mud and sludge being accumulated over years, possibly meters thick in places. It takes a long time for it to dry out enough to make crossing it possible. I’m not too familiar with the geological conditions, but I’ve experienced that a lake bed can stay muddy for years after the lake being emptied. You get a hardened surface basically protecting the mud below it from dying out. As for the reason, it could just be scorched earth tactics deployed too soon.

@ekevanderzee9538

11 ай бұрын

Yes. But..... Even. A few miles in the most upstream part of the former lake will drastically influence the tactical situation. And the most upstream part hasn't that much of a sediment buildup.

@peterhagen3767

11 ай бұрын

@@ekevanderzee9538 Most of the lake vil have many meters af sediment. Most at the upper part where the river went out in the lake.

@peterhagen3767

11 ай бұрын

Exactly. My guess is that i might be over 10 meters mud in great areas.

@donnievance1942

11 ай бұрын

I agree with you. NIelsen also seems to think that the Ukrainians will be able to cross the Dnipro down river below the dam in a few weeks after the water subsides. I have heard that the ground will likely remain too saturated for vehicular traffic for one to two years. What this means is that Russia has shortened the front that it has to defend by a couple of hundred kilometers, and that this situation will hold for a long, long time. Nielsen also downplays the significance of the many small beachheads Ukraine had established across the southern Dnipro. I believe that these beachheads were a serious and growing threat to the Russian rear, and that the threat would increase as the counter-offensive proceeds. Now Russia can withdraw all its forces along the southern stretch of the river and distribute them elsewhere. This is the likely explanation for why the Russians did this now, instead of later, when Nielsen thinks it would have been more militarily advantageous. This lets them redistribute their forces now, when they need them to oppose the counter-offensive on other parts of the front. I hate saying this, but this action seriously helps the Russian military situation. This is why we can be certain that the Russians did it. Also, it's a simple fact that no rockets the Ukrainians have could have damaged this dam in such a profound way. As Nielsen pointed out, it would take tons of manually placed explosives to do so.

@oohhboy-funhouse

11 ай бұрын

I don't think he was implying armoured spearheads driving over the drained lake. Anywhere that soldiers can move will be contested, probed or raided.

One thing this could be seen as is a delaying action where in russia frees up troops in the short term expecting ukraine to be impatient due to western political pressure to get another big win and hopefully soften the impact of ukraines counter offensive if it starts. Basically if ukraine starts a major attack now they will run into stiffer ressistence due to russia being able to concentrate their forces short term. If ukraine is delayed in their offensive because of this it also buys russia more time its also a win for russia but a phyric one as they would within the span of a few months have to fortify a much longer stretch of a frontline as the resouvar is gone now. So is also the case for ukraine so they too would have to fortify and use resources on that. its like pissin your pants to keep warm and russia has chosen a poor time to do this but it is also likely that they just dident feel like they had a choice or the internal system is soo fragile that any offensive off ukraine that would be sucessful could shake russia internally too much and so they elected the short term gain.

Love your videos.. While I appreciate your maps and graphics. Your talking content is ultimately what we are here for. 👍

💛💙💜💙💛 I figured you'd have something to say about this 🙂👍 Thanks, Anders!

Anders is the GOAT! 👍

Once again, ANDERS, thank you for your insight. I was shocked and horrified by this wanton disregard for life, nature. Yesterday, I watched a video that brought tears to my eyes. In this video, a female zoo keeper in Kherson was hysterical because she could not save drowning animals in the zoo. I know that human life is so very important and that so, so many people lost their lives, their homes as a result of this destruction. Yet, seeing this video live from her phone I was heart broken. The screaming and agony of those poor creatures ripped me apart. I read from experts that this dam could not have been destroyed by a missile strike but from explosion within the structure. The Russians planted explosives within the structure months ago. I hope that THEY PAY FOR THIS AND ALL OF THE OTHER DESTRUCTION they’ve done to the Ukrainian people. Paul Messina, New York City

Great points and analysis as always! It always comes down to smoking in the wrong place.

So in brief, Hanlon's razor: Never ascribe to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.

excellent as always

"Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat." Sun Tzu.

A really good analysis that covers most of the possible causes for the failure though I think you left out a couple of fairly major things to consider. In Russia on 31 May, a few days before the dam broke, the government adopted a decree that suspends the technical investigation of accidents of hydraulic structures "that occurred as a result of hostilities, sabotage and terrorist acts" in the territories occupied during the war with Ukraine. March 2022 Russia gains control of the Kakhovka dam and Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (KHPP). October 2022 Russian forces proudly boast they have placed explosives on the Kakhovka dam and inside the turbine hall of the KHPP. November 2022 Russian forces blow up the road bridge over the Kakhovka dam at the right bank end of the spillway valves. This explosion may have damaged some of the valves and the mechanism that operates them (two cranes that move on rails). From February 2023 water is allowed to build up in the Kakhovka reservoir possibly to make a breach of the dam more impactful. 28 May 2023 - 01 June 2023 water level in the Kakhovka reservoir has risen to the point where it is observed overtopping the dam. This is an incredibly dangerous event and something that dam operators everywhere strive to avoid as it leads to structural failure of the dam. The people who built the dam weren't stupid and included an emergency failsafe mechanism. The navigation lock at the dam could be opened to allow water to safely bypass the dam thus preventing overtopping. Unfortunately the Russians filled in the channel of the navigation lock back in October 2022. Oops... It is entirely possible that the Russians fearing a Spring offensive by the Ukrainians set in motion a sequence of events that would cause the Kakhovka dam to fail at a time when they expected Ukrainian forces would be crossing the Dnipro en masse downstream of the dam and making amphibious assaults across the Kakhovka reservoir. The flooding of land downstream of the dam while severe is a temporary problem that will abate in a couple of weeks. Of far greater concern is the loss of the Kakhovka reservoir. Water from the reservoir provided irrigation for large tracts of agricultural production. Two out of three water processing plants that provide drinking water to the towns and communities around the reservoir have shut down. There is also the not-so-small matter of the loss of fish stocks from the reservoir. This is a major ecological disaster. I struggle to understand how anyone could think Ukraine is responsible for this.

Thank you for the great analysis! Why do you think the response from other countries was so muted and close to non-existent?

Russian incompetence is very easy to believe at this point. They panicked at the thought of Ukrainians overrunning their positions and blew the dam to try to divert some resources away from the offensive. That it was a stupid move militarily surprises me not at all.

@nerzhul2455

11 ай бұрын

Ukroreich did it. Everyone knows it. No amout of botting can change truth

@nerzhul2455

11 ай бұрын

Nordstream, Power pIant, missIes in PoIand story aII over again?

@eugene7309

11 ай бұрын

Of course it is easy to believe. Removing they own fortifications and mine fields - thatś what usually armies do when they are afraid and stupid. We all know that Russians are afraid and stupid, don´t we?

@hohhan1978

11 ай бұрын

Such a nothing burger. They just stupid so thay should make a stupid moves. But none of this is true. It was just made buy ukrainians and heres why! I already wrote here, anyway. 1) Its currently not under Ukraine control so thay can't control water level for forcing operation. Now they have exclusive control of whole level of dnipro river. 2) Its producing free electricity for russians, now its not. 3) It was vital for crimean water supply. Now russians will deal with shortages. 4) All of bunkers and trenches on russian controlled shore are completely drown so now it will be much simpler to storm for ukrainians. 5) It cause 5 times more flooding on left bank than on ukrainian controlled right bank of dnipro. 6) Ukrainians immediately (without official investigation) used that as exuse for supplying 15 billion worth weapons to supply. 7) Right after floading was occurred ukrainians opened fload gate higher up the stream so it flooded even more of bunkers and tranches further of precious water line. 8) lover lavel of water makes it not safe to operate nuclear power plant on Energodar. Again no free electricity for russians. 9) Russians OWN this dam so if they need to fload something thay can just do that without any explosions simply buy controlling gates on it. 10) No one ever blame Ukraine! As far as their actions also causing more damage to russians. Doesn't even matter how much damage it will cause to ukrainians itself. Nobody cares! even Anders by him self not even considered that as an option. Even tho its bloody obvious whom to blame on benefiting with it.)

@jormungandr4690

11 ай бұрын

Not likely, they were probably moving their troops back and blew up that position.

Exactly my thought - when you have 1 shot it’s often better to keep is as a threat a contingency for the other side to keep accounting for than to actually excercise it

The usual excellent analysis, thank you sir!

Great analysis