Educational Guides for my Community: 📚Scalping: larrycheung.substack.com/p/educational-guide-intraday-scalping 📚Intermediate-term Investing: larrycheung.substack.com/p/educational-guide-how-to-leverage

@shawnwolfe7577

Ай бұрын

I only have one question, Larry. Which will lose more value in the next five to ten years? The USD (upon the next printing spree) or the house? I'm guessing it's the $. Both could lose 50% or more, but the house has a much greater chance of regaining value. The USD might gain purchasing power for a while, but it'll be a dead cat bounce. So yeah. Hard assets. Metals. Real Estate. Land.

Keep in mind that during the 80’s people were encouraged to save due to the interest rates. Right now there’s very little incentive to save because those who are saving are watching those who are reckless taking it in. I’ve been trying to save for a home and it’s been discouraging to watch prices continue to not budge because there’s people willing to get into a mortgage where they’re paying 40% of their income. It’s insane.

@mikegarvey17

21 күн бұрын

The housing market in 2024 poses difficulties due to uncertainties about the Federal Reserve's ability to curb inflation and reduce borrowing costs without adversely affecting demand for assets like homes and automobiles.

@ThomasChai05

21 күн бұрын

Consider shifting from real estate to stocks during severe recessions. While market volatility presents short-term trading opportunities, it's crucial to approach with caution. This isn't financial advice, but investing during such times may be a strategic move, consider adopting the services of a financial expert.

@mariaguerrero08

21 күн бұрын

The best market strategy is to work with a credible investing coach. Since a while ago, I've been in touch with a coach, mostly because I lack the depth of understanding and mental toughness to deal with the ongoing market conditions. You lack the information necessary to succeed in a competitive market, not because you're doing anything wrong, but rather because of your lack of experience.

@CliveBirse

21 күн бұрын

@@mariaguerrero08Can you suggest the financial expert you've been using? It appears you've had success with their guidance.

@CliveBirse

21 күн бұрын

@@mariaguerrero08Mind if I ask you to recommend this particular coach you using their service?

Larry is right, the other ancillary expenses of owning a home; real estate taxes, homeowners insurance, HOA fees are becoming staggering. Even if a retiree is fortunate enough to own their home outright, these runaway expenses will chew up a fixed income budget quickly.

@jasonnolan9697

Ай бұрын

Any mass financial problem will result in bailouts for homeowners. printed money, they can tax.

@kevoreilly6557

26 күн бұрын

What is a real estate tax?… you mean property tax?

Another year, another year of no housing crash. People have been screaming housing crash for FOUR YEARS now. Between my house and investments, it has been the greatest 5 years of wealth building in my entire life. Even better than pre 2008. You should always own at least one home, even if you rent it out, and always be continuously investing in the market. Forget about timing, it is about time in the market. Always be in for the long haul. A lifetime of investing never goes wrong, ride those ebbs and flows to long term prosperity.

I've been watching the housing market closely, Prices have been skyrocketing for years. It's going to be tough for first-time buyers to enter the market." how can one diversify $280k reserve .

@SmithJones-yx1ut

Ай бұрын

Precise asset allocation is crucial, with some employing hedging strategies or allocating to defensive assets for market downturns. Expert guidance is vital for success. This approach has kept me financially secure for over five years, yielding almost $1 million in investment returns.

@MarkLeonard-xn8zs

Ай бұрын

in times like these, it's crucial to be cautious and not rush into the market , Who is this your FA , my portfolio needs urgent attention , been a lot of loss.

@SmithJones-yx1ut

Ай бұрын

“Tenley Megan Amerson” is the licensed coach I use. Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.

@EmersonLoyal

Ай бұрын

I appreciate it. After searching her name online and reviewing her credentials, I'm quite impressed. I've contacted her as I could use all the help I can get. A call has been scheduled.

@DeportillegalAliens

Ай бұрын

Is it worth using a 7 yr forgivable assistance loan ?that way I can stop renting and still have 4 months of expenses in savings at closing.

There isn’t really a supply issue. It’s the hogging of supply from investors. Which will continue to push to be a problem as it creates disparity between the rich and poor. Big polarization between families who can and can’t raise families to the American dream standard is a threat to the government which will be forced to change this. Either through policy or interest rate hikes. Sooner or later the bubbles gotta pop and rents have to match incomes

@unabonger777

Ай бұрын

raise taxes on non-owner occupied houses, force the corporate landlords to sell.

Money is not meant to control people, rather it is meant to be put to work producing more money for you. You cannot build wealth without putting money in its rightful place.

@katiekilbo

Ай бұрын

People dont understand that the prices of things are never going back down. This inflation is deeper than we think. Those buying groceries are well aware that the real inflation is much over 10%. The increments dont match our income, yet certain investors still earn over $365,000 in stocks and assets. Wish I could accomplish that.

@vanillatgif

Ай бұрын

Very possible! especially at this moment. Profits can be made in many different ways, but such intricate transactions should only be handled by seasoned market professionals.

@Faijan-zx5ov

Ай бұрын

Some persons think inves'tin is all about buying stocks; I think going into the stock market without a good experience is a big risk, that's why I'm lucky to have seen someone like mr Brian.

@BraunRob

Ай бұрын

Finding yourself a good broker is as same as finding a good wife, which you go less stress, you get just enough with so much little effort at things

@datguy82

Ай бұрын

Brian demonstrates an excellent understanding of market trends, making well informed decisions that leads to consistent profit

Excellent analysis and that's exactly what's happening -- developers are building apartment complexes. I see it everywhere here in the Northeast. I also see ridiculously high asking prices for existing homes and they are simply not selling.

During the Great Wealth Transfer the bequeathed estates will be sold for very high valuations but due to the increase in renters, the risk assets will continue to be debased.

Nice video, again

Most apartment developers are "merchant builders." They build, stabilize (lease-up), and sell. They don't stay in the investment to collect long term rental income. They typically get bought out by REITs, pensions funds, etc. With that said, it is very hard to make new apartment projects pencil in the current environment, with a 50-year peak in supply holding down rents. The projects delivering today were started years ago in the ZIRP (zero interest rate period) when project economics where vastly different.

fear a housing crash due to people buying homes above asking prices with little equity. If prices drop, affordability and potential foreclosures may arise, worsened by future layoffs and rising living costs. I want to invest more than $300k, but I'm not sure on how to mitigate risk.

@SandraDave.

Ай бұрын

Contemplate shifting your investments from real estate to other dependable options such as stocks, cryptocurrencies, or precious metals. Severe recessions present potential buying opportunities in the market, but it's essential to approach them cautiously due to the volatility that can provide short-term trading possibilities. While not offering financial advice, it could be prudent to consider investing, given that holding onto cash may not be ideal during this period.

@nicolasbenson009

Ай бұрын

It's often true that people underestimate the importance of financial advisors until they feel the negative effects of emotional decision-making. I remember a few summers ago, after a tough divorce, when I needed a boost for my struggling business. I researched and found a licensed advisor who diligently helped grow my reserves despite inflation. Consequently, my reserves increased from $275k to around $750k.

@Hectorkante

Ай бұрын

this is definitely considerable! think you could suggest any professional/advisors i can get on the phone with? i'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation

@nicolasbenson009

Ай бұрын

Finding financial advisors like Melissa Terri Swayne who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.

@EddyAgnes-vy4kp

Ай бұрын

Appreciate this recommendation, hopefully I can get some insight to where the market is headed and strategies to beat the downtrend with when I hear back from Melissa.

what about supply constraint since existing homeowners cannot afford new loans at high rates when they are enjoying low rates from past 15 years before the interest rate hike? what is the statistics on this factor

The law of supply and demand still applies. We have a shortage of housing between 2M-6M units. Until that resolves, housing prices overall, are not going anywhere. Oh, and since rent hasn't kept up with home prices, expect rent to go up.

@toinengwyn3935

Ай бұрын

With 15.1M empty houses and historically weak population growth (immigration included) in the past few decades, there is no shortage of housing. Note that it's called supply and *demand*. Supply may be low, but demand is at multi decades lows as well. It won't take a big jump in supply to get the ball rolling down. A record number of rental units are coming online in the near future. In many markets, rents are already lower than mortgage payments are.

If it does happen it will take years for there to be a correction anyways. Worst time to buy a house.

The building of apartments benefits only from volume. To build a house costs $275-$350 per square foot. The low is $250 and you would be hard pressed to fine it that low. Module homes is where it’s at.

This is due to people overspending on houses that are excessively over inflated. It also has to do with government interference with “band aide policies” that throw things out of balance. Covid BAD policy also exacerbated this mess.

But when interest rates drop, many home owners who didn't sell because of their low interest rate mortgages will be more inclined to sell so that will increase market supply and therefore reduce home prices as demands will continue to be low despite lower interest rates given the continued increase in debts held by Americans

@FatCatHash

Ай бұрын

But those people who sell would most likely also need to buy which means supply increases, but demand also increases essentially cancels out. Unless the majority of the sellers are looking to rent, move in with relatives, or own multiple homes.

@chesian

Ай бұрын

Those who would care about the interest rate means they would be selling and buying another home, so per the first reply, supply and demand don't shift much. Those who don't care about the interest rate, aka not looking to buy after selling, would just sell now.

@goldenparachute392

Ай бұрын

I agree with the two responses above and would add that it’s likely that home prices will hold up and possibly increase.

Your chart @ 4:23 is investor sales being at 26%, NOT ownership. So they are buying ~26% in Q1 2024, but they are still a small percentage of owners, overall.. it almost felt like you are saying investors own 26% of low-priced homes, which i believe is close to just 2%, overall OWNED by investors.. thoughts? Also, you cite climate change for increasing insurance costs. Inflation means it takes more to replace or rebuild a damaged house or car, and that means insurance costs correlate..

Larry my HOI increased 136% in 2023 ($1,100 to $2,600) and another 85% ($2,600 to $4,800) on top of that in 2024. I’m fearful for 2025. It’s a real problem in California if you’re in a Fire Zone like I am.

Homeownership rate has already dropped 20 bps from its recent high. Which is equivalent to around 500k households. Expected to continue falling. As far as home builders pivoting towards multi family. Not true. Most SFH developers don’t operate in multi. Multifamily has exploded in popularity because of the fundamentals and availability of cheap debt which isn’t available to SFH developers.

We have a lot of small rent only home builders.

What's your take on how U.S. $34 trillion debt and the Soc Security deficit affects future investing strategy?

Container homes , 3D printed homes , Tiny Homes is allllll coming onto market - we are shifting into a new paradigm

@alexbaek9838

Ай бұрын

Nope, disruption to revenue stream to the rich will not allow any changes to benefit the general population unless it benefits the wealth. EG, solar and PGE.

@user-tx2dc3vm7m

Ай бұрын

3D printed homes are just as expensive and non-3D printed homes. The only one that saves is the builder. There were several 3-D printed homes that were made in California and they the builder saved a lot of money but the homes went up for sale for half a million dollars+ each.

@s.k.6616

Ай бұрын

RV living.

@robertp9370

Ай бұрын

@@s.k.6616 im 33, I bought a piece of land for 3500, with electric and water easy to hook up nearby. I can buy a very nice toy hauler or 5th wheel or two for under 10k. My property tax is under 10$ a month and its zoned for RV living. my lot is 18,000 square feet, and I'm about to buy the land next to me and potentially the lot next to it for an addition 36,000 square feet. for a total of 54,000 square feet. I am never going to pay a half a million dollars for a house and get screwed over by maintenance fees. the housing market is just a bunch of debt servitude. Its a scam. ill wait 30 years if I have to for a 50% crash or more before I ever consider buying a house.

@jerkface38

20 күн бұрын

​@user-tx2dc3vm7m yeah idk wtf that dude is talking about. I literally looked into it. They are always marketed as cheaper but they are sold for extremely high prices. Last I checked they wanted $500k and that didn't include hookups

Hasn’t happened because the issue is supply, not rate

My flood insurance tripled in one year. It’s ridiculous. Still wouldn’t sell though as I couldn’t buy another anyways at these prices.

Great😮

I would also add the state and fed govts will not allow home price and property tax deflation. Free $, ubi, loan mods, eviction and foreclosure moratoria, mortgage forbearance, student debt forgiveness, 40 yr loans, $0 down fha loans,…this all means “home prices higher for longer”🤡

@nonexistent5030

Ай бұрын

They said the same in 08 lol

@toinengwyn3935

Ай бұрын

Thanks to record government subsidies and spending, the cost of living will continue to rise faster than incomes will. People will increasingly have to choose between buying basic necessities and keeping up with housing costs. There is no free government cheese.

@brianschmidt704

Ай бұрын

Two thousand eight happened because of loans made to unqualified people and lots of teaser resets. I agree the government's all took a big hit so they will make sure that supply is crushed so the prices do not fall.​@@nonexistent5030

The crash is coming just have to be patient, it’s gona get bad this year

@dchangs

Ай бұрын

You wish 😊

@OllieBrux

Ай бұрын

You said the same thing in 2022 and 2023, im sure

They need to only allow corporations to be able to buy so many homes per county. They are monopolizing the market

@pedro72246

20 күн бұрын

Not really

@pedro72246

20 күн бұрын

People who own 2nd homes have more effect

Multistory luxury apartment buildings are popping up all over here in Orange county California

When you say the housing market affordability will get crazier once the fed pivots, what do you mean??

@uploadtime1780

Ай бұрын

Lower interest means higher prices.

@S0ulsinner

Ай бұрын

@@uploadtime1780 but there will be more supply? I don’t understand.

@uploadtime1780

Ай бұрын

@S0ulsinner More supply? Supply is creeping up now.. however we have an estimated 20 million "new arrivals", in the country with some states assisting on rent for them, we have inflation so building new is more cost prohibitive and that is causing existing houses to creep up in price, and if the fed pivots and lowers interest..... people will jump and go put house shopping again, fearful it may be their last chance at a lower rate.

@S0ulsinner

Ай бұрын

@@uploadtime1780 there will be more sellers too..

@goldenparachute392

Ай бұрын

@@S0ulsinner the people that are waiting for lower interest rates to sell are doing so because they want to buy their next home. One house is sold and another is purchased.

Folks have no idea what comes next. Next we get a liquidity, collateral, and credit crisis all at the same time. Inflation is just the cherry on top. When ... when the yield curve reinverts. That is when.

It all hinges on the unemployment rate…

American dream is over.

@idiocracyishere4531

Ай бұрын

Thank the spending by congress

@AO-qy8fp

Ай бұрын

@@idiocracyishere4531 yup, but unfortunately some people think collecting more taxes will fix the problem. When the problem is government spending irresponsibly.

@rapid5208

Ай бұрын

Yes, because Americans have woken up to global market shifts and its impact to local. Stop all the wars!

Sorry, but taxes/insurance aren’t going to be what causes housing to go down. The only thing that threatens housing prices is unemployment. We don’t have the same interest rate schemes we did 20 years ago on homes. Everything is fixed, and most owners are below 4% interest rates. If we have a recession that pushes unemployment above 8-10%, that could open up a correction. But until that happens, expect housing to stay high. And even that might not be enough. I still watch these dipshits in my local MSA bid $80k over on a bucket of shit house, just because they’re afraid of missing out. Paying $650k for a house that hasn’t received any major upkeep and maintenance since the Nixon administration. So long as that sort of insanity exists, homes will stay extremely valuable.

@Jake-pf4kv

Ай бұрын

if there is a crash, you will see it in places with the highest appreciation first

@toinengwyn3935

Ай бұрын

Unemployment is the main threat. But note that taxes, insurance, and maintenance costs are not fixed. In addition, a record amount of properties are owned by investors and speculators. Those represent another domino.

@eyeinsee

Ай бұрын

Im in insurance, people on fixed incomes can afford their taxes and insurance anymore.

@worndown8280

Ай бұрын

Id argue that if the recession hits, even a mild one, it might actually save housing. Right now the Fed is holding rates higher for longer. This means that all those rental properties, both single family and apartments, will need to have the debt rolled over at higher levels. Once that happens people will not be able to afford rents that allow the debt holders to service those loans. If a recession hits, the Fed may cut rates preventing those loans being rolled over at rates that cant be serviced. That means massive foreclosures and banks tightening lending even more. Both of those push down on single family home prices long term. Do I think it will be a 2008 crash, no. Maybe a 15% down turn over a few years. But on the other side will be higher rates and if immigration is addressed, and aging and shrinking population. Right now we are Japan 1990. Look what real estate did between 1980 and 2015 in Japan. That's what will happen here as well.

"what happens when one stops producing?"

Hedge funds who members are billionaires, corporations and politicians current and retired. These organizations are purchasing first time homes, with CASH. My neighbor sold her home to a family obtained a loan, not to a hedge fund who offered her $30,000.00 more.

You have really overthought this. Regarding the US market, you need millions of distressed sellers for there to be a crash. There are about 140 million housing units in the US. 42% have no mortgage. Of the 58% that have mortgages, 25% have a mortgage under 3%. 65% of all mortgages are under 4%. These people are not in a hurry to sell. What would they buy instead. going from 3.5% on your current mortgage to 7% on a new purchase effectively doubles your monthly payment. Most people are not going to do this. I have 26 or so properties and I don't see me selling anything in the foreseeable future. What I really take exception to is your first article. There are plenty of affordable homes accross the US. The headline should have been that 40% of renters don't think they will ever own a home "that they want to own." There are plenty of homes that they could own. Don't over think this. If the 30 year mortgage drops into the 5's% you will see a huge upswing in home prices in desirable locations adding to this cycle.

@zkkjc29

Ай бұрын

agreed, and saying 40% of renters don't think they will ever own a home doesn't mean there is no demand.

@toinengwyn3935

Ай бұрын

Financial security trumps fixed low rates. Layoffs continue to rise aggressively, and incomes continue to fall behind the cost of living. And, as the video pointed out, property taxes, insurance, and maintenance costs are not fixed. Having no mortgage still means that housing expenses are still rising. Demand is so low today that it won't take a massive amount of distressed sellers to get the ball rolling. Back in 20087-2008, the failure rate of loans only had to tick up a few percentage points higher to send the market reeling. If rates drop, it will be because the economy is in dire straits. Credit may be cheap, but few will be willing to borrow or lend.

@markpoultonsrules

Ай бұрын

@@toinengwyn3935 You need to do a whole lot of more data gathering on the real estate market. Most of what you said is incorrect. Although I would tend to agree that the cost of house (taxes, etc) will increase, it is a logical fallacy to say they will. Property taxes decreased after 2008. Demand is not low. It is quite high compared to available units for sale. The reason demand is lower than it naturally would be is because of the golden handcuffs of a 30 year low interest mortgage and the fact that you cannot sell your current house and even if you downsize, your monthly payment will be much more than you are currently paying. You can make an argument that incomes are falling, but that is geographical in nature. The government is showing that real wages are actually increasing, albeit slower than inflation. The current market is almost entirely caused by low interest fixed rate mortgages.

@toinengwyn3935

Ай бұрын

@@markpoultonsrules "You need to do a whole lot of more data gathering on the real estate market. Most of what you said is incorrect. " What is incorrect? Golden handcuffs are only good as long as you can keep up with your current expenses -- generally through a steady stream of income that outpaces costs. Since 1973, average real wages have increased .7%. That is at best stagnant. Per Fannie Mae, only 6% of current mortgage holders cited low interest rates as the reason for staying put. Per the Fed and various studies, the vast majority of RE failures in the wake of the GFC occurred because of job losses and/or being upside down. In other words, you can't pay a fixed low rate with no income. Housing and other living costs may fall in the future. But this would most likely require a major recession accompanied by severe job losses and deflation in asset prices, including RE. Low demand is today is largely attributable to historically high prices while credit is no longer cheap or easy. Current sales are lower today than they were in 1999 despite the currently higher population. Interest rates were about the same or higher back then. But prices were a fraction of what they are now.

I'm seeing price declines since we got inflation data. One was reduced by 22%. I'm waiting to see if someone jumps in and buys these homes or if they will reduce even further.

@Donkiko-bz1lv

Ай бұрын

What area

@anniealexander9616

Ай бұрын

@@Donkiko-bz1lv Alabama

@anniealexander9616

Ай бұрын

@@Donkiko-bz1lv I live in Georgia. Things here are a lot more expensive with taxes being a lot higher. It would be nice to build a rental portfolio in Alabama and maybe retire there.

@eyeinsee

Ай бұрын

Thats the problem, people just need to chill for now dont jump in just yet.

$250-500 range is getting stung.

So many apartments been built around me😅

Not enough supply!!! Since 2000 housing units have grown by 25% but population growth has grown by 25% so therefore.... oh crap...

@toinengwyn3935

Ай бұрын

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, there were 15.1 million vacant homes nationwide in 2022. Too many units being concentrated in too few hands thanks to speculators and investors. In addition, the U.S. population growth rate has fallen to its lowest rate in decades. Fewer births leads to fewer household formations and therefore lower demand for units.

@toinengwyn3935

Ай бұрын

@@HisCoconutGun 1. Only immigration is keeping population growth barely positive ---but not high enough to soak up excess units. 2. How many immigrants can afford current R.E. prices?

@toinengwyn3935

Ай бұрын

@@HisCoconutGun Again, immigration is not going to soak up the excess units. Inn addition, foreign purchases of U.S. properties is prohibitively expensive when the dollar is strong against foreign currencies. More families crowding into few units will not soak up excess units.

@toinengwyn3935

Ай бұрын

@@HisCoconutGun The historically low sales figures back up my point. Historically low demand for historically high prices at historically normal to below normal borrowing rates. When cheap and easy credit is taken away, fewer people can afford to buy under such circumstances. Note that inventory is elastic rather than static. There’s always new houses going up, and people needing to sell their existing houses.

@toinengwyn3935

Ай бұрын

@@HisCoconutGun In other words, you refuse to see the evidence because it doesn’t conform to your views.

You present a false dichotomy between building SFHs or rental apartment buildings (which are typically not managed by the builder). Developers can and fo also build for-rent detached houses as well as for-sale condo buildings.

I just don't understand why building your own home is incomprehensible to so many people

@AJourneyOfYourSoul

11 күн бұрын

People aren’t built like that anymore. Americans got soft.

I like tall apartment buildings. Houses are money pits, and everyone knows it. I like to live in apartments and I would like to own one someday.

Move to Italy or country that has housing. The US doesn’t have enough homes and the quality is poor. Prices in US need to drop 30%. Other countries have plenty of housing and would be glad to have you.

If government ever wants corporations to divest from rental properties, all they need to do is introduce a surtax on every property a person / corporation owns past the first X number of residential homes (1-4 units).

@Jon-rz2nn

10 күн бұрын

More regulation is never a good solution. In your scenario, it is simple for people to set up multiple corporate entities to get around this.

@alexaber9786

7 күн бұрын

@@Jon-rz2nn We fundamentally disagree. Regulation is sometimes a good solution. For example, asphalt plants upstream from pretty much any water source anyone uses is always a bad thing. Regulating asphalt plants away from communities of size / major farms is a good thing all of the time. Another example, lead pipes cause retardation in children. Preventing municipalities from using lead pipes as intake pipes from their water sources prevents harm to children's brains. This type regulation is good all of the time.

This video has major error. New single home building is UP while multi family housing starts are are DOWN. This video says the opposite which is false.

@nikosfarma5643

Ай бұрын

Have a reference for that? Thank you. I lean more with Larry at this point. (I am not relared with the channel or producer of this video)

Yes, but that doesn’t mean collapse

New home prices not falling. Builders build smaller homes with inferior finishes resulting in lower prices

@peterbedford2610

Ай бұрын

Exactly.. Lennar is leading the way

It's like the auto maker saw what student loans were doing and felt left out of the bankrupt American's trade. Buy a Tesla or a Toyota.

Bro we are in May And you are a bit out of scape If you put these 3 conditions a year ago I will continue to follow you

@redfellow1

Ай бұрын

It's mid April.

@TheFunkyair

Ай бұрын

@@redfellow1 bro if you are taking today as reference for invesment god helps you all

Why Hasn't It Happened Yet? AKA why I was horribly wrong.

@nikosfarma5643

Ай бұрын

Unlike most, he has the strength to review himself and reposition his initial view. Learn something instead of criticizing. RTK and Dalio have been predicting huges crashes a few years ago, crushes that never occurred (yet).

@toinengwyn3935

Ай бұрын

A RE downturn is a process, not an event. Instant gratification is what gets people into trouble.

I believe that nothing will happen until the CDBC's comes in. It may happen in the latter part of the year.

This no need to downsize three bed rooms.

I'm debt free, been saving hard and collecting interest on that money, it's safe not in the market. I paid off my 8.5 ac land not a few months ago after I sold my crypto.

But the crash is not happening ... Can you explain the 'fix rate mortgage with 30 years amortisation ...'. Is that true?

oof gonna be tough for this guys followers when they see he don’t got it like he thinks he got

Aint no housing market crash coming. Foundation is solid.

It's more complicated than he thinks

No housing crash coming.

Property insurance in red states like Florida is no better than California.

@guyz7777

Ай бұрын

And taxes...property taxes in FL are becoming outrageous

decreasing population… over time will increase supply. this is a measured in decades tho, sadly

@LiveWell6

Ай бұрын

US population is not decreasing. Especially with all the illegal migrant immigration recently.

@GD-8

Ай бұрын

Good point, so in the long term, prices will go down, adjusted for inflation of course.

Illegal migration exacerbates the shortage and also suppresses wages.

Investors have destroyed the housing market

I'm a real estate agent. Housing market in Atlanta is still very HOT. 670k house in a top school district went on the market and over a weekend it received 60 offers. I would say house prices in Atlanta is still very cheap compared to other big cities. And I believe prices will continue to go up due to the very main reason, limited supply.

@Donkiko-bz1lv

Ай бұрын

Yeah because all the rich own those homes now.

raise taxes on non-owner occupied houses and airbnbs. force them to sell.

My 3 reasons home prices will crash: 1. AI and Robotics will slash new home prices dramatically. 2. Investors will be forced to sell by politicians, who will make their ownership illegal. 3. Boomer's estates will be looted by nursing homes leaving nothing for their heirs. Of these, tech will be the biggest blindside as it always has been in the past.

Can we talk about the damn flippers. Grrr

From your best guess, when would the crash actually happen? Early 2025 ?

@jj-eo7bj

Ай бұрын

2045

@TortugaDeRio

Ай бұрын

2031

@goldenparachute392

Ай бұрын

@@jj-eo7bj😂

Clueless. Have they taken away the printing press? No chance for housing crash as long as USD can be printed.

@toinengwyn3935

Ай бұрын

Real estate thrives under demand-pull inflation (good economic times). We are experiencing cost-push inflation where the cost of everything is rising faster than incomes are. This does not help the RE market historically.

@w3s77

Ай бұрын

@@toinengwyn3935 So you mean like the 1970's? How did RE perform in the 1970's? You are clueless.

@toinengwyn3935

Ай бұрын

​@@w3s77 I'd be indeed as clueless and blissfully ignorant as you are if I ignored that the fact that the economy, and the RE market, are very different from what they were 50 years ago. Home buyers and the market are far more indebted today and therefore very susceptible to economic shocks (e.g. inflation and recession). See 2008 for a more recent example. 1. In the 70's, the real estate price to median household income ratio was never higher than 4.41. The price to income ratio is currently 7.61. 2. In the 70's, the savings rate was never below 9%. Today, it is below 4%. 3. In 1979, the average down payment was 25%. Today, the average down payment is closer to 10-15%. FHA loans represent a new form of subprime mortgages with down payments as low as 3%. 4. In the 1970's, banks kept mortgages on their books. Since the 2000's, lenders have heavily packaged and sold mortgages as tradable securities. Thus, RE has become highly speculative. 5. Today, owners treat their houses as investments rather than as shelter. Thus, a vast amount of debt has been taken out to establish AirBnb's, HELOC's, and hedge fund real estate portfolios.

@toinengwyn3935

Ай бұрын

@@w3s77 I would be indeed as blissfully ignorant as you are if I disregarded the fact that the economy, and the RE market, are very different from what they were 50 years ago. Home buyers and the market are far more indebted today and therefore very susceptible to economic shocks (e.g. inflation and recession). See 2008 for a more recent and applicable history lesson. For example, the real estate price to median household income ratio was never higher than 4.41 in the 70's. The price to income ratio is currently 7.61. In 1979, the average down payment was 25%. Today, the average down payment is closer to 10-15%. FHA loans represent a normalized form of subprime mortgages with down payments as low as 3%. In the 70's, the savings rate was never below 9%. Today, it is below 4%.

@w3s77

Ай бұрын

@@toinengwyn3935 Labor prices, up, raw materials up, permit costs up, home prices up. It's almost impossible to have inflation without home price inflation, it's the largest portion of the CPI calculation. No chance inflation rips and home prices decline, it's mathematically impossible. Please read how CPI and Inflation are estimated and understand the portion RE represents.

The collapse already started where it ALWAYS does. Volume. Inventory is rising quickly now. Goodnight.

@idiocracyishere4531

Ай бұрын

Yes, in Florida

@timothygibney159

Ай бұрын

Prices went up 8%. Bidding wars still common

@DoomTubePorn

Ай бұрын

@@timothygibney159 lol lowest sales since 1995 with highest inventory since covid

@DoomTubePorn

Ай бұрын

@@idiocracyishere4531 Phoenix Austin

Im in St Augustine Florida, St. John County (right next to Jacksonville, oldest city in country) population has grown by 50% in the last 10 years. They are building new houses and apartment complexes at a staggering rate. Almost everything everyone says about other places do not apply here. Everyone is moving here. Its almost all wealthy northerners moving here too. Its a very expensive place to live. We don't have affordable places for the labor/teachers/cops etc. to live so we are building a bunch of affordable housing (1,000 sq ft or less homes) that emt/teacher/cop/county will get priority sales on. They need to quit building 350k+ houses and build WAY more 2 bed 1 bath neighborhoods like they just started building. Seems like we figured out we need it and have started building smaller but more affordable houses though. Long as all the dems moving here don't take their dumb ass policies with them that destroyed the places they were before, we will remain the shining house on the hill. Since DeSantis took over we went from purple to red and everyone is moving to Florida now. All the cops form NY quit the force there and are moving here for the $5,000 bonuses for cops and $45k starting salary with low crime rates. TGIF thank god I live in Florida. Our economy never even slumped from covid, we shut down for 2 weeks, within 2 months everyone said f it haha.

@AJourneyOfYourSoul

11 күн бұрын

Most people in the USA, outside of Florida, don’t understand how large the population is in Florida.

CFA must mean Completely Fooling Around

@goldenparachute392

Ай бұрын

Actually it’s the most difficult financial certification/designation to achieve. It’s more difficult than the bar exam and the CPA exam.

You’re all instructed to simply accept the schemes of a few thousand insiders. Or you could do a different kind of math…..

"Climate change" I live in SoCal and can confirm my climate hasn't changed.

Mate you ve been doomsday too early too long

BABY BOOMER TYRANNY!

We are starting to look like china, except that manufacturing jobs are mostly gone in the U.S. I pray for Trump to turn this situation around quickly.

I'm favoured $130k every 4weeks! I now have a good house and can now afford anything and also support my family

@SemiyasePuleo

Ай бұрын

Thanks to my co-worker (Alex) who suggested Claudia rea Lovell. She's a licensed broker in the states 🇱🇷🇱🇷

@SemiyasePuleo

Ай бұрын

After I raised up to 325k trading with her I bought a new House and a car here in the states 🇺🇸🇺🇸 also paid for my son's surgery (Oscar). Glory to God.shalom .

@Lve_4578

Ай бұрын

Can't imagine earning $85,000 biweekly, God bless Claudia rea Lovell, God bless America 🇺🇸♥️

@SemiyasePuleo

Ай бұрын

Yes she works with people all over the world, she's the best you can ever come across.

@SemiyasePuleo

Ай бұрын

There is her line 👇👇👇

Being asian though, I think American housing is incredibly cheap by international standard. US housing is only 7x income when it's higher in Europe and even more ridiculous 30x in Asia. If Americans are complaining about this, then the rest of the world is in hell. I think it's mainly the poor personal finance skills of ordinary Americans are to blame. Americans are far less frugal and spend far more irresponsibly compared to the rest of the world.

@1969bones69

Ай бұрын

Asian countries with 100 year generational loans....European housing with insurance in the hundred per year vs US insurance in the 10's of thousands per year. etc. Your comparison is apples to automobiles. You're not even in the same food class of comparisons. Not that you're wrong about Americans being useless with money. But comparing US to other countries real estate is disingenuous. They are nothing alike.

Rental is sky high out of control, too. Blame on current administration of Bidenomic. The 4 years of democrat control caused economic spiral down fall.

Cool, looks like this time is different then. Congrats to all the housing bulls, you guys won. Time to go spend more on the economy with your sweet equity

Housing for captures or external workers was to be a push topic for Canada told to me at the time. They said people would be making a push for this to be a sustainable option. This becomes hard to sustain when one worker needs to sustain a family vs just taking in 1 person for the job. Resources like food and other things don't get weighed in properly and advice from countries like Germany who have tried it. "It dements force" it creates imbalance when looking at each person and the issue of fairness complicates things

Give values are declining in every state. These declines will continue for years.