This crap is so scary. We have a dictatorship on the ballot! And people are acting like it's normal! And we have a guy on his way to turning 81 as our only alternative. This sucks.

@jackjurphy5020

Ай бұрын

Lmfao

The senate is the most key to keep. If the senate goes back to republicans, they will have a Supreme Court majority until 2050

@vehnashur2771

Ай бұрын

Project 2025 seeks to bypass the Senate.

@robreich6881

Ай бұрын

The Senate is a guaranteed loss if Trump wins because all the Republicans have to do is win West Virginia to make it a 50/50 with a VP tie breaker.

@wgjung1

Ай бұрын

Very optimistic think there will be 2050.

@leechowning2712

Ай бұрын

Worse, honestly, because if senate goes red this year, 2026 are mainly safe seats, and it will be 2028 before the DNC has a good chance to retake. Would be Trump trifecta, for basicly the whole cycle.

@AdamSmith-gs2dv

Ай бұрын

If the Dems lose the presidency they are losing the Senate. No way John Tester and Sharrod Brown survive an environment where Republicans win the popular vote

I'm voting anti-fascist, anti Project 2025. I find both presidential candidates repulsive, but Biden/Harris are going to be the lesser evil. I'm also expecting Harris to take over.

@SigFigNewton

Ай бұрын

I do not expect Dem leadership to be in touch enough to make that call

@Seigensi

Ай бұрын

there is no vote you can make that ends in anti those things in america. america is the fascist training camp for the world.

@markg.7865

Ай бұрын

I am voting blue no matter who, I don't care if it's Joe or not.

@keithlamontdavis8047

Ай бұрын

If Biden is at the top of the ticket, Trump wins.

Has anyone been asked to participate in polls. I have never been asked in my life.

@maxsmart9116

Ай бұрын

I participated in a poll in 2016. Several hundred million people live in this country. Maybe you'll get asked next time.

@Horus070

Ай бұрын

I was called in a poll phone call in Washington state but as the question went … it started to show it was more of a political propaganda then a poll for Republican candidates in Washington. I asked the caller if that was a poll paid by the Republican Party and she said she couldn’t confirm, but she did give the company name that was doing the poll. Unfortunately I didn’t write down

@Mostdefinitelynotabot

Ай бұрын

Has anyone been asked to participate in the price is right? I have never been asked in my life. I mean more people have been on the price is right then a poll sampling so. You have a higher chance of shaking Biden or Trumps hand than being polled.

@Creationweek

Ай бұрын

I get called most election years. I answer the questions about half the time the other half of the time I'm busy with stuff.

@RoboBlue2

Ай бұрын

I've participated in a bunch of phone polls.

Boomers never say die until they do.

@joeavreg2254

Ай бұрын

We keep saying it in a pleading tone but they won't listen.

@TheInsaneupsdriver

Ай бұрын

@@joeavreg2254 My dad is a racist bigot born in 46 that doesn't believe in science scientists the moon landing or computers, and even he hates trump.

@James-hd4ms

Ай бұрын

Joe Biden is not a boomer. The oldest boomer is 78.

Polls also show people want Trump to not run!

So explain the thinking of someone who would vote for another Dem, but not Joe/Kamala.

Ettingermentum is a must follow/subscribe, he does the work!!

@rrubens3026

Ай бұрын

The bestest

@christineherrmann205

Ай бұрын

And yet when I went to check the information box, they linked everything BUT him.

@slvskngs1317

Ай бұрын

I heard him on Chapo a year or so ago and have been subscribed to him since. Cool to see a face to go along with his words and voice.

@PauloAdriano-zo2ng

Ай бұрын

​@@rrubens3026 But is he the goodest? 🤔

Really glad to see Ettingermentum getting more speaking slots, I have always really liked his CTH appearances! Great ability to boil down information for the masses.

We are going to just slow walk into a Trump 2nd term. Biden’s team is going to just run out the clock no matter what the world says.

@wfyfwfyf

Ай бұрын

Then he’ll die in 2 to 3 years and leave his chit behind for us to clean up.

@austinturney745

Ай бұрын

I think you are correct that Biden inner circle just wants to string things along until time runs out. He will lose lose to Trump but he will have the satisfaction of defeating all the democratic alternatives.

@ElderStatesman

Ай бұрын

I think at this point, the Democrats see the writing on the wall and know our country is at a crossroads. Either we can upend the capitalist system by embracing socialism or we can quintuple down on a wealthy person's paradise (or our hellscape) by drifting into fascism. Democrats are so beholden to donors, they're willing to risk our country devolving into the Fourth Reich than to force a rich person into giving up an extra dime per dollar in taxes.

The crucial poll question is not whether people think he should stand aside, it is 'will they vote for him if he does stand '. The first question is about what people think other people will do. The second is what they themselves will do.

@joelsommers

Ай бұрын

In swing states, Biden is down between 3 and 8 points (except for Colorado +6.5, Minnesota +3 and New Hampshire +3).

Good points! 1."Convention nomination is a committment to democracy" + 2. "people won't be mad at you for giving them what they want". Trump 's campaign to keep Biden tells you everything you need to know.

@grmpEqweer

Ай бұрын

Good point.

@justsittingherethinking2530

Ай бұрын

Trump will lose. If Biden runs it will be a landslide, if others run the races will be closer. Trump def. doesn't want Biden to run, that's a fake story. He's on tape talking about how easy Kamala would be to win against. He wants Joe out, it's the only way he even has a chance to win.

@TheMahayanist

Ай бұрын

Trump doesn't understand how elections work lol Keeping Biden is the problem for Trump, replacing him leaves the candidacy completely unknown and without any ground game or track record.

@SigFigNewton

Ай бұрын

He’s wrong about the source of Biden’s poor polling tho Inflation is a bigger deal than his perceived mental deterioration

@SigFigNewton

Ай бұрын

Incumbents lose following high inflation

Amazing track record for this guy.

@ryangrundy4290

Ай бұрын

As good as Allan Lichtman?

@SigFigNewton

Ай бұрын

One for one, super impressive

@theRagingBolt

Ай бұрын

One election. Big whoop.

@corvacopia

Ай бұрын

@@theRagingBoltit’s about his specific predictions since that time, not just the election as a whole

@00SmileTime00

Ай бұрын

​@@ryangrundy4290If Lichtman's model is so foolproof, why hasn't he made a prediction yet?

Pundits were calculating every traditional predictor of election results but completely ignored a new but obvious predictive tool and that is "GOP Crazy". Fortunately, GOP crazy is at an all time high going into this election cycle.

@brandonm949

Ай бұрын

GOP crazy is baked into the polls

We need good polling on whether or not Kamala WOULD drive turn-out.

@dr.zoidberg8666

Ай бұрын

We already have polling that tells us that she does better than Joe, but it's simpler than that: There are no "Biden or bust" people. Everyone who supports Biden in 2024 are Blue MAGA folks who will vote for any dem no matter what. Dems are popular & Biden is not. Swap out Biden & we only stand to gain.

@bicokun

Ай бұрын

Well, I’m getting a lot of campaign messages asking me how much I like the idea of Kamala Harris as the president (and then asking me to donate, natch), so I think they’re probably getting pretty good polling on that.

@grmpEqweer

Ай бұрын

I would rather vote for Kamala. I'm furious at Joe being an active accessory to gin ó side. I'm voting antifascism/project 2025, though. Project 2025 makes the choice super-clear.

@cassandratq9301

Ай бұрын

​@@dr.zoidberg8666 I think the retort to that is that the reason Biden needs to be switched out is to attract the NON "BIDEN OR BUST" cohort. Can Kamala help drive THAT group to the polls to vote Dem?

@gabet1075

Ай бұрын

@@bicokun I donated and they didn't ask me. I'll vote for either, but I'd kill to not have him on the ballot at this point.

Like this dude just sorta rambles on...and he's not like even 70 years old...wtf

Trump should be steamrolled by a Democratic candidate. One of the unspoken aspects of the debate is not whether it was a one-off that should somehow be ignored. Any Democratic candidate debating Trump should demolish Trump for his string of misconduct. How can anyone debating Trump not crush him? Instead Biden lost badly.Does Biden own a mirror? Does he watch any of the videos of his appearances? Biden should resign now and allow Harris to run as the incumbent and allow the nomination of an interesting VP candidate. Harris would have a big jump in approval once she becomes President. The "Biden crime family" BS would be gone. The "sleepy Joe" issue would be gone. The most Trump would have are his continual lies about the last three years and incoherent rambling about Harris' personal life thirty years ago. Is Harris my first choice? No. But the scenario with her running as an incumbent with a new name for VP gives Democrats the best chance of success, by far.

@aname8174

Ай бұрын

Kamala has no hope. Why you ask? Former cop that changed rules to keep people in prison.

I am not black, but I hear black people in comments being very supportive of Harris. They also think people who cannot respectfully say her name properly and insist on calling her by her first name only and not even saying it correctly sound like racists. Clean it up fellas I am a progressive and I get tired of defending progressives talking this way in comments it gives us a bad rep please try to be more respectful

@JEQvideos

Ай бұрын

I hear black people being really pissed that they voted for a candidate in a primary and then Democratic elites decide the candidate needs to go. Rich white men like Clooney and corporate donors are trying to force the guy they endorsed out. But hey, it's all good--young white leftists want Kamala to step up and replace him. She black, so that should be fine for black people right? Maybe it's just me but that comes across as condescending and racist af.

@martiwaterman1437

Ай бұрын

The narrative about pronouncing Kamala Harris’s name incorrectly did not materialize out of thin air. It was prompted by Tucker Carlson on his show when he was still on FOX. He was told that he was mispronouncing her name yet continued to mispronounce her name intentionally as a sign of disrespect toward her. Right-wing media and viewers followed suit. They need to clean up their act.

@keithlamontdavis8047

Ай бұрын

I *am* black. Black people care about defeating Trump. Nothing else is anywhere near as important. "Representation" and identity politics is superficial, especially when you have a black face furthering the wealth inequality policies of the donor class.

@brandonm949

Ай бұрын

I think black people don't care as much as you think they do. We call Bernie and Hillary by their first names too. We pick the most distinct part of a politician's name when referring to them, which in the VP's case is "Kamala". He should have the pronunciation down by now though.

@flamemasterelan

Ай бұрын

"They also think people who cannot respectfully say her name properly and insist on calling her by her first name only and not even saying it correctly sound like racists." GTFO with this nonsense. We always refer to politicians by single names, e.g. Clinton, Obama, Biden, Hillary, Bernie, Warren, etc. The only reason so many of them get referred to by their last name is because Bill, Joe and George are common names. She promoted herself as Kamala, her supporters in 2020 were literally referred to as the K-HIVE, AKA Kamala Hive.

Some of Biden's post-debate ad flood in my swing state featured Kamala.

@gabet1075

Ай бұрын

She's more popular than him, so they are leaning on her since they can't lean on him. Joe's ego hasn't changed that he believes that he is the only person who should be allowed to be President, though.

@SigFigNewton

Ай бұрын

Meanwhile republicans are saving their stockpiled funds, letting donkeys greatly outspend them… and republicans are winning in swing state polls

@ritaagopian4150

Ай бұрын

I’ve noticed this in my state as well. They rolled out those ads quickly.

@SigFigNewton

Ай бұрын

@@cassandratq9301 repeated ads for rocky road primarily featuring nuts?

Thank you for these thoughtful interviews on a weekend.

I'll vote for Bernie if he replaces Joe.

@grmpEqweer

Ай бұрын

Unfortunately? Bernie is older. I'd vote for him in a heartbeat, he's sharp as a tack. But he had a heart attack in the 2020 primaries.

@plutoloco2378

Ай бұрын

Me too. The only way I’d vote doe a dem is if it’s Bernie. Otherwise I’m voting for trump

@SunVKing

Ай бұрын

@@plutoloco2378 I can't tell if you're serious or trolling

@Mr.Volcanoes22

Ай бұрын

​@@SunVKing Almost certainly a troll. Or just a dumbass

@BulliezInc

Ай бұрын

They would never do that . Why people are even willing to vote democrat at this point is crazy to me . I mean after 2016 the party should have been thrown away and a new left party out it’s ashes

No offense to your guy Emma. He predicted one or two trends. No predictive validity or scientific basis

@Pain-rk7hu

Ай бұрын

Nate Silver is allowed to have a job cmonnn

@Beacon69ers

Ай бұрын

He's not so much a predictor as he is a translator of the actual situation. If you aggregate all of the available information you can make an assessment on what the outlook currently is, but he almost never gives a prediction especially this far away from the election.

@manteca87

Ай бұрын

@@Pain-rk7huhe only barely predicted one.

@LanceCady

Ай бұрын

​@Beacon69ers his assessment was pretty much a widespread understanding of the situation. It wasn't a shock that Dobbs fucked the Republicans. Everybody saw that coming. The only people who didn't see it were dumb conservative pundits.

@Brian-rt5bb

Ай бұрын

You're misunderstanding the argument - the point isn't that we should believe him because he accurately predicted 2022, the point is that we should believe him because he is making rational data-based arguments and the fact that he predicted 2022 further lends credibility as an example where polling contrasted with the pundits making subjective arguments and the polling was right. The point is that if you look at the data, Biden's prospects are in the toilet and circling, while it's largely pundits (pro-Biden ones this time) making weird hare-brained arguments that fly in contrast with the data. It is the people arguing against Josh's conclusions that are avoiding "predictive validity and scientific basis" by making up all sorts of unfalsifiable rules--an incumbent has a better chance, even when literally 75+% of the electorate thinks he shouldn't run again! Biden can beat Trump, he did it before! (sample size: 1 elections), Kamala will lose because Trump just has some special quality that makes women lose when they run against him (sample size: 1 elections)--and so on.

While replacing Biden at the Convention would be responsive to what people want, I worry this would set the precedent that could be used for the party to switch out any leftist candidate at the last minute. I remember when Bernie had the most delegates, he was the only candidate who argued the candidate with the most delegates should win. I think it would be best if Biden could somehow be persuaded to step aside.

Let's see how accurate this guy is in 30 years of polling history.

We're really not in a good place on this channel if we're literally just interviewing assholes off of twitter

“Polls only count when I agree with them” - Blue/Regular Maga

@larryforbes6718

Ай бұрын

This was BEFORE Biden press conference and campaign appearances. Now polling like Marist n Split Ticket have Biden gaining, up 2%- head to head or up 1% w 3rd parties included.

@joeavreg2254

Ай бұрын

The idea that there is a thought process involved gives them too much credit. This is 100% about how they feel about the current situation. The majority of these freaks prefer Biden losing to Trump when they could have something truly terrible, like a person who isn't at least 70.

"A doddering old man who can't run the country" sums up the perception of Biden quite well in my opinion.

@grmpEqweer

Ай бұрын

Kinda. I think he's more competent offstage. But I'm terrifically upset with his actions in pal es ti ne. I'm voting against project 2025, regardless of who is at the top of the ticket.

@TheMahayanist

Ай бұрын

Except he's ran the country for four years.

@DementiaDon

Ай бұрын

@@grmpEqweer Lol Palestine. There's NOTHING that would change the situation there.

@ryangrundy4290

Ай бұрын

He’s been running the country though. Therefore, that perception is detached from reality.

@SigFigNewton

Ай бұрын

Nope. His problems are mostly due to inflation. Anyone have thoughts on those very rare cases where the incumbent was re-elected following high inflation?

If Harris had Bernie as her VP, she would be guaranteed a win. If she ends up the nominee, Dems will pick Mayor Pete as VP. I've said that since Biden picked her, that is what would happen.

@michellewhitfield5667

Ай бұрын

That is a terrible idea.

The notion any Democrat will beat Trump except Biden is not convincing. The people calling loudly for Biden to be replaced overestimate the strength of the other potential candidates and underestimate Biden’s. Name a Democrat, and there are always some Democrats who don’t like them. Even the guest admits Harris is not so popular or strong. I am not saying Biden is strong, but the guest underestimates the ability of the Democrats to select a new candidate all the Democrats and independents will get behind.

@firstlast8258

Ай бұрын

He has a great vice president donald trump also

@Sam-sz6qq

Ай бұрын

Exactly

@joca2903

Ай бұрын

what if Michelle Obama ran?......im just dreaming

@bicokun

Ай бұрын

@@joca2903Well, polling has Michelle Obama winning by double digit points, as I recall. Too bad she doesn’t want anything to do with that crap.

@grmpEqweer

Ай бұрын

Look. Project 2025 makes it super clear. I am voting against fas cis m. Trump is denying he is for it, but he's waist deep in project 2025. We have to nail 2025 to his door, because it's fas ci ism.

Love you guys! Keep up the good work. Gay love from Norway here

@grmpEqweer

Ай бұрын

❤for gay Norwegians.

@TheRuben_music

Ай бұрын

@@grmpEqweer Thansk! We gotta fight for our love

Is 'Going full Clooney' now part of the vernacular?

If Biden doesn't step aside, we are going to get tedius terrible Trump. And if that happens God help us all!

@markg.7865

Ай бұрын

I am voting blue no matter who it is, Joe or not.

@PaulEleftheriou-we7vr

Ай бұрын

@@markg.7865 I know, their is no choice, I wish we could have some one that would win.

@B03Eastwood

Ай бұрын

@@markg.7865 Yeah, but can you really blame anyone who thinks maybe the next president should be at least somewhat lucid?

@B03Eastwood

10 күн бұрын

Oh wow, this was just 3 weeks ago... How times change. and for the better somehow!

"Do this before bed and watch your tool grow in size." Lol. Solid ad.

And the same poll shows Biden in a tie with Trump. Hello!

@PFBM86

Ай бұрын

If Biden and Trump finish tied nationally in the popular vote then Trump is going to win the electoral college with ~330 electoral votes

Oh I thought you were saying his name was Ed Germentan or something like that 😂

11:20 Yes, but is "X" percent of people preferring Biden step aside the same as "X" percent of people refusing to vote for Biden?

@dayojohn7522

Ай бұрын

Thank you! They are too simplistic with their analysis.

The reason Biden hasn't provided a political reason to stick with him is that there really isn't a slam dunk one.

@grmpEqweer

Ай бұрын

IMO, Project 2025 is that slam-dunk reason. That's regardless of who is at the top of the ticket. My suggestion? Harris/Biden. Let him step back.

@SuzakuX

Ай бұрын

@@grmpEqweer Biden would never stand for that.

@JEQvideos

Ай бұрын

@@SuzakuX Neither would his base, primarily black women and union workers.

@justinokraski3796

Ай бұрын

VP Biden would be hilarious

@ryanweible9090

Ай бұрын

i dunno, his union credentials after his presidency were very strong, both working behind the scenes to get the railroad workers their time off, or him being the first psitting president to address the striking uaw workers. he passed the inflation reduction act despite joe manchin's attempts to destroy literally everything good in it. maybe those transfer as just dnc, but they happened under his watch so they are associated with him.

Nate Silver was way off in 2016. Polls aren't the be all end all.

@soyborne.bornmadeandundone1342

Ай бұрын

@@user-be4ou5lq9z So we're going off polling for popular vote bull crap that's meaningless, instead of the electoral college that means everything. Lol got it...

@ariefraiser140

Ай бұрын

​@@soyborne.bornmadeandundone1342 the electoral college still uses the popular vote. Silver wasn't "way off". The election came down to a few thousand votes in a handful of swing states. Additionally Silver gave Trump about a 28% probability of winning the election. I wish more people understood probability and just math in general because these polling discussions with people who don't is frustrating to say the least.

@thegreatharrisoni

Ай бұрын

Absolutely not true. 538 had Clinton winning the popular vote by 2 points, which she did, but only gave her a 4 in 5 chance of winning the election

@JEQvideos

Ай бұрын

Clinton was ahead 4 points on election night and had a 71% chance to win. At this point in his re-election bid Obama was four points behind Romney. The red wave drastically underperformed. The election for George Santos' empty seat was a dead heat in polling, but dems won by something like 8 points. The point here is not to assume that Joe Biden is guaranteed to win. It's to show the insanity of cowardly blue voters wanting to force out their own incumbent when he is shown with a slight advantage in the current polls AFTER the trainwreck debate and when the media and leftist influencers are shitting on him 24/7.

Wow. That's not how I expected Ettingermentum to look like that. Weird how you picture people differently in your head.

As much as the debate and the bombardment of Gaza had me not wanting to vote for Biden and wishing he would drop out... over the course of this public debate amongst Democrats, the media and the voters... I have come around to support him...surprising myself the most! I have come to have a better understanding about his overall economic big-picture philosophy, support for unions and the working class, and he has come out and presented a policy platform for the future that is energizing and a great contrast to Project 2025 and the Trump Goon Gang. So maybe this process will energize other people to support him too. I am also confident in VP Kamala Harris, as his back up!

@Tyiion

Ай бұрын

I have reached the opposite conclusion.

@maxbash6330

Ай бұрын

There is not nearly enough recognition on how successful Biden's economic and social policies have been. Inflation has decreased for the first time since 2020. There has been unprecedented economic growth in the left behind rural counties. The US GDP has outpaced every country in the G7. They have even outperformed China for the first time in 20 years. Unemployment is lower than pre covid rates, the monthly job creation numbers have been exceptional.The stock market is up. New infrastructure projects are underway all over the country. Insulin prices have been capped and student loans forgiven. He stood up to OPEC and released US oil reserves to lower gasoline prices. He was instrumental in the expansion of NATO. Why is this all being ignored because he had one disastrous debate. Take a look at his campaigning afterwards. Emma's outrage over the tragedy in Gaza is denying the fact that there is NO path for another candidate. Even Bernie Sanders is backing Joe, because he realizes it's the only way to get progressive policy enacted. Why has the IRS been clamping down on delinquent back taxes from billionaires. Why has the FTC been investigating corporations for anti trust violations. Why has the government been pushing to tax the 1% more? Doesn't that sound like Bernie's influence? A primary replacement of Biden would be disastrous, the candidate would lose. But Netanyahu would still be Prime Minister of Israel and Trump would hand him Gaza on a platter. I'm very disappointed in Emma, I know she wouldn't replace the goalie in a Stanley Cup final because he had one bad game.

@Tyiion

Ай бұрын

@@maxbash6330 Biden is already handing them Gaza. Watch his actions. Not his words. His words are meaningless.

@keithlamontdavis8047

Ай бұрын

So you want him to stay in even though he's losing in *every* swing state? You're going to vote for him, but do you believe he can win? Or does that matter to you?

@mattdombrowski8435

Ай бұрын

It would be fantastic if he could clearly articulate any of that in a way that convinces people that he's not acting like an elderly person in decline.

So what i take from this is that Biden ain't no Bernie.

dude knows of what he speaks

@rrubens3026

Ай бұрын

💯

@Seigensi

Ай бұрын

yeah, but it's american politics. It's like being highly educated in failed fiction.

9:14 That business about those who watched the Nixon-Kennedy debate on TV having a more favorable impression of Kennedy, while those who who listened to the debate on radio favored Nixon, being attributable to Kennedy's better visual impression than Nixon's--might not be the only explanation for the two outcomes. When that debate was held, many Americans still didn't own a TV. Many Americans, worked night shifts or had a day job and a night job or couldn't yet afford a TV. Others were living in rural areas out of range of TV broadcasts. The point being, that those who watched on TV might have been in an economic, educational, and professional class, different from that of the radio listeners. So that the different results between the TV viewers and radio listeners, might have had as much to do with the socioeconomic class of each audience than with the Kennedy's visuals being more persuasive than Nixon's.

He's got to stop saying "like" every other word. Otherwise good insight.

This guest may have some valid and interesting points but his overuse of the word “like” is very distracting.

MEIDAS TOUCH has been insanely accurate in all the elections.

@sloanekuria3249

Ай бұрын

​@Acceptance-eh6vvI suspect they're quite aware

@savlosavage

Ай бұрын

What is a paid cjannel ... im fr unaware​@Acceptance-eh6vv

Hispanic voter in Wisconsin standing firmly with Joe Biden 2024!!

@TheHauntedKiwi

Ай бұрын

This might be the least real person on the internet

Said you’d link to the guests news letter. I don’t see the link??

I highly recommend studying the 13 keys to the White House. They have correctly predicted every election since 1860. It’s based on the theory that the candidates do not matter elections are primarily a vote in favor or against the party holding the White House. There is only 1 key about the traits of the candidates that being incumbent party candidate is charismatic, inspirational or a war hero Biden is clearly none of those do we lose that. The only key about the challenge party is the challenging party candidate uncharismatic. To quote Allen Lichtman who help create the system and is the only person who predicted both the 2016 and 2020 election correctly. “Trump is a great showmen but his showmenship only appeals to a fraction of the electorate he doesn’t have the overwhelming charisma of FDR or Ronald Reagan.” Biden has so far only lost 2 keys those being midterm mandate key and incumbent charisma key. there are 4 keys that haven’t been called yet 2 lean in bidens favor and two don’t those 2 that don’t being the foreign policy/foreign military success and failure key. If we replace Biden we lose the incumbent party candidate is a sitting president key and the inner party struggle key. Since if we replaced Biden there would be terrible inner party struggle so we would lose 4 keys with both the foreign policy keys leaning against Biden. Unless there a permanent cease fire which would be a miracle but highly unlikely. so if Biden doesn’t run we would lose 6 keys which is the number you need to lose the election. I don’t like Biden at all but I trust the 13 keys theory. It is always correct. The only other option that would not result in democrats losing is the less preferable Plan B. if Biden decides not to run he doesn’t just withdraw from running he resigns making for the “good of the country” making Kamala Harris president. That would save both the inner party struggle key and the incumbency key. We can’t go with Newsom or Whitmer as much as I wish we could it would be political suicide. Based on the keys to win we either go with option A which is the safer one stick with Biden or option B Biden resigns making Kamala president. Those are the only two viable choices this late.

@mhartan

Ай бұрын

You are correct as to the Lichtman analysis which upholds a Harris victory if Biden resigns and Harris runs as the incumbent. I believe Lichtman has said as much. It is pretty clear that Harris has a lot less baggage than Biden: She is not ancient; she is not implicated in the Biden crime family BS and she is not deep into the Gaza debate, either way.

@Andrew-of8uq

Ай бұрын

@@mhartan true as long as Biden fonts resign though not just drop out of the race

@airwindows

Ай бұрын

@@Andrew-of8uq Which would be worse. Nope, not that option.

@Andrew-of8uq

Ай бұрын

@@airwindows which option are you saying is worse?

@Serocco

Ай бұрын

The 13 Keys theory predicted Al Gore. That was wrong.

Time to choice were you stand , time to fight for the people ,Lets Go Joe!!!

Left is best.

Polling was pretty accurate in 2016. Mist the results were within the margin or error as I recall. But people act like being 1 or 2 points ahead means you are winning when really its a tie and also national polls are less relevant than polls tied to electoral votes.

@JPH1138

Ай бұрын

I got the impression that it looked like such a foregone conclusion on the popular vote polling that people didn't really get anywhere near as granular with the polling in the swing states as they should have. I recall handful of people DID point out that there was a path for Trump from the slim margins in the swing states, though, even if they got very little attention.

@belkyhernandez8281

Ай бұрын

@@JPH1138 I am basing my comment on a link that showed all the polls going back at least a year. I used to go to it weekly. I don't remember what the link is. And then separately pundits would say something like "Hillary is beating Trump in 9 of 10 polls! She is a shoe in!" But that gave a very false impression if those 9 of 10 polls were within the margin of error." I get it. I didn't want Trump to win either and hoped the polls were missing something. When Hillary lost it took me about 5 minutes to understand what was happening.

'His uniquely extreme age' is overshadowing what should be okay messaging and events,i.e. if Biden wasn't so old and frail,he and the democrats would be challenging without prejudice. .A very intelligent,serial understanding.

So why won’t he step aside?

I finally get see Josh's face!

There’s simply not a sample size large enough to give any credence to someone predicting elections. Variance is a real thing and there are an infinite amount of variables as well as changing conditions that can make a model that worked 4 years ago to be completely useless in this election cycle.

Are you sure

And Trump's campaign is not even up on Kamala yet.

@TheMahayanist

Ай бұрын

Kamala has no track record, no ground game, no money. Switching to Kamala is a ploy to hand the election to Trump, period.

If Emma’s opinion is still the same by the end of next week (barring some giant f up by biden’s campaign) then it’s clear she’s completely myopic on this issue

@SuzakuX

Ай бұрын

People who think Biden's chances will improve are the myopic ones.

@ElderStatesman

Ай бұрын

What do you mean? I think Emma has been on the side of telling Biden to step down for a little while. What makes you think she's myopic on this? 😕

@airwindows

Ай бұрын

Or, the TYT influence reaches farther than I would've believed. I expect shenanigans from Jimmy Dore, but I thought better of Emma Vigeland.

@bb_4488

Ай бұрын

@@airwindows YUP

@bb_4488

Ай бұрын

@@ElderStatesman my point is that if the tide turns (and it seems like it is) to show that Biden is the best candidate rn and she still doesn’t change her mind, then she’s being myopic

Emma’s intelligence shining through here. Meanwhile over at TYT Audrey Meadows is showcasing her mauve lipstick. 😊

I think this guy is one of the best guests you've ever had on your show. Wow.

No dirty laundry up in here

I like Biden because he is a warmonger. I really like warmongers

@Seigensi

Ай бұрын

true american here folks. war lust at it's finest.

Always appreciate these specialist interviews

I would vote for Kamala, but NOT Biden.

Bernie said all in. I am all in.

@ainthatsomeshit

Ай бұрын

I think it would be inconvenient for Bernie to say otherwise, even though Bernie isn't senile and can probably live long enough to see Jimmy Carter die.

So what’s the chances?

@firstlast8258

Ай бұрын

Slim to none

It’s crazy that this was just yesterday and today Trump has won and it’s over

Get this guy on the Pakman show 😂

I'm an anti-Biden die-hard in that I won't vote for Dems if Biden is the candidate. (For the record I would never under any circumstances vote for any Republican, but Dems have to suffer for what they did to my man Sanders)

@airwindows

Ай бұрын

Are you in any way interested in what Bernie asks you to do? Or are you some kind of celebrity stan who does not actually care what Bernie wants and says he wants?

@zerobit7964

Ай бұрын

Then enjoy Project 2025 and the authoritarian hellscape you'll be allowing to happen. You'd rather Trump win than suck it up and vote for democracy even if you dont like the guy cos he fucked over Bernie?? If you are that moronic then there is no hope for you.

@KrimsonVagus

Ай бұрын

Dems will not suffer anything. They will take their money and run. We the voters are the ones who will suffer lol

@carlos_herrera

Ай бұрын

@@airwindows If I were a celebrity stan I would vote as Sanders recommends without taking into account that in his dotage he has become an establishment liberal with multiple positions I cannot support. In spite of his multiple incorrect positions in the present day, I appreciate his role in the creation of the US left, DSA, etc. This does not obligate me to endorse his embrace of the very same reactionary elements that killed off both of his presidential runs via institutional power plays and electoral chicanery. So I guess read 'Dems have to pay for what they did to my man Sanders' as 'as a working-class person, I need to see a lot more proof that Democrats represent me after they demonstrated at least twice (with 2024 pending) that they would rather risk losing with a complete turd ($hitlery, Biden) than allowing the people to actually vote for a candidate who professed real working class politics.

This guy is very impressive

Is there a poll that got it right 10 out of 10 presidential elections like Allan Lichtman did?

@TheWokenSpirit

Ай бұрын

Thank you! He developed a robust model that people are ignoring. Biden has the most key advantages.

@TheHauntedKiwi

Ай бұрын

Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah

abortion is on the ballot in FL too!

Josh face reveal

Re: debate - Everybody figured, "Biden asked for it - obviously he's loaded for bear!"

Bring on Allan Litchtman.

@TheHauntedKiwi

Ай бұрын

Bots out in force

@christopherstathis4419

Ай бұрын

@@TheHauntedKiwi Ain't a bot, sir/madem.

Love this guys work

@Seigensi

Ай бұрын

functionally, how has his work improved your life to inspire love?

Another day in Joe Biden's bashing day

@firstlast8258

Ай бұрын

He does it to himself mostly

Can't wait for this ghoul to meet his maker.

@joca2903

Ай бұрын

there are so many ghouls

@grmpEqweer

Ай бұрын

Trump AND Biden. Agreed. ... Project 2025 makes my choice really clear, though.

The problem with his analysis is that the polls show Biden doing the best against Trump, and “generic” democrats poll worse than Biden. Whether Harris or Newsom or Pritzker, they all lose according to the polls.

@bb_4488

Ай бұрын

@@wilddynamine8017 THANK YOU, I feel like the leftist alt media is a cult of its own while calling Biden supporters cult members

@grmpEqweer

Ай бұрын

She was plugged for a week and her numbers topped Biden. A lot of people just don't know who she is. So she could work on that.

@SuzakuX

Ай бұрын

Biden is not doing best against Trump except for the immediate poll the night of the debate, where Harris was two points behind him. More recent polls show Trump beating Biden and Harris beating Trump by as much as three points.

@firstlast8258

Ай бұрын

Biden is a generic brain dead Democrat tho

@Serocco

Ай бұрын

Biden still loses to Trump. If that's the "best" the Dems have, it's already over

You should invite the man who predicted 9 of 10 presidental races right. Not one who predicted one or two trends. That's ridiculous.

@TheWatchersDance

Ай бұрын

If you're talking about the "keys to the White House" guy, no thanks. He's a total hack.

@Serocco

Ай бұрын

Lichtman hasn't made an official prediction yet.

Can I post a comment, Israel? It isnt about Palestinians its just about my opinion about the presidential race in my country.

I think at this point WE ALL KNOW the taking points to hope for another Democratic candidate to run MR … you don’t need continuing beating the dead old horse 😓

hey Etti good shit guys

i don't know what i was expecting, and i mean this in a very neutral way: he looks like a josh

Interview Allan litchman

@andrewpeters5145

Ай бұрын

he is unreliable.

@TheHauntedKiwi

Ай бұрын

He's a fraud

I hate this video because they, and other pollsters, spend the whole time trashing Joe Biden saying that he should not run, without asking the most important question. If Joe Biden stays in the race, who are you going to vote for? Donald Trump? C'mon people, granted he's old. But he is not the only person in the administration. He has an incredible term to run on that he and his administration got passed and implemented. If Biden stays in I just don't see voters are going to say "shit, I'm voting for trump", or not voting at all. There's too much at stake to turn our backs on the most experienced, qualified, and moral candidate, who happens to be the incumbent. At this point, Biden is running. Who are you going to vote for?

@sartresreason9752

Ай бұрын

The Biden campaign has always assumed a close election. The polls don't reflect the reality of the choice voters will be making. It's the same as '22: women's choice and democracy are on the ballot, and more likely than not there will be voters that will cross party lines. Biden is old and slower, but no one was complaining after his SOTU address. It's really the single bad debate performance that started this whole replacement idea. Since then he's been at rallies and held a press conference. It's evident that he's still capable of performing his job. Professor Allan Lichtman says that polls really don't matter. When an incumbent has had a successful term, they win re-election.

@wm2429

Ай бұрын

Democrats will still vote for Biden but independents will not. Biden will lose in November if he stays in.

@MrZega000

Ай бұрын

Well if you recall 2016, a lot of people voted 3rd party which put trump in the white house

@joelsommers

Ай бұрын

Right. I disagree. I think they will certainly stay home, and this is born out consistently by polling so far.

I think Dick Van Dyke should run!

My question is who are these polesters calling?, I have had a few text me but anybody that's gonna be voting for the right side of history doesn't have a house phone and polesters do not usually call cellular phones or they're not supposed to.

@larryforbes6718

Ай бұрын

Split Ticket, Data For Progress polled 2,000 online fr jul1 to 3. They show Biden winning head to head or down 1 w 3rd party included. PBS/Marist poll of 1,500 shows Biden leading Trump by 2% or 1% w 3rd parties. He's now winning more good polls.

He's using a shure sm58 that's wild

Asks to explain us what you mean by fundamentals, proceeds to explain on his behalf. 🤦‍♀️

The democrats plan; 'hope for the best.'

Where's the link to this genius's work?

Emma's Warren side is back and is all for mamala.

The only thing I've heard Biden articulate since the beginning of the year is "We got a bunch of chips from South Korea." Does that swing even one vote? Who the fuck is that for?

You do so as Harris would be a certain win altough you can't see the future. Stop this BS.

@brandonm949

Ай бұрын

Biden is a near certain loss. Harris gives us a chance.

@Keepthepeacesharethelove

Ай бұрын

@@brandonm949 Maybe you are right. I'm not so sure.

@larryforbes6718

Ай бұрын

I can support Biden or Harris.

@Keepthepeacesharethelove

Ай бұрын

@@larryforbes6718 l support every democratic candidate because l want a democracy not a dictatorship.

Great thoughtful discussion. Dig it.

@SigFigNewton

Ай бұрын

They ignored the main issue. It’s the economy,

Omg he's real! He lives lol! Looks a little different than I expected. ❤ this guy

@SigFigNewton

Ай бұрын

He doesn’t understand the economy. Assuming that he is aware of how important the economy is, he must not understand how weak the economy is.

It's really not hard to predict the elections, it's a 50/50 shot

@Seigensi

Ай бұрын

100% either outcome is shit for the world.

Fantastic guest.