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GUYS REMEMBER TO BE PREPARED
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorms are likely Monday afternoon into Monday night from east Texas into parts of the Lower-Mississippi Valley and Southeast. Damaging winds and several tornadoes, a few of which may be strong, will be the primary hazards. However, some large hail is also possible.
Synopsis
A strong mid-level jet streak across Texas will shift east during the day and into the mid-Mississippi Valley by Monday night. A surface low will move eastward through the day from near the Red River, into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and then occlude northward into the Lower-Ohio Valley by early Tuesday morning. A warm front will move north during the day across the Lower-Mississippi Valley and bring mid-60s dewpoints into the I-20 corridor during the afternoon. Thunderstorm activity is expected along and primarily ahead of a cold front which will move from east Texas Monday afternoon to central/east-central Mississippi by 12Z Tuesday.
Portions of northern Louisiana and central Mississippi
Expect relatively early convective initiation across east-central Texas, near the nose of the mid-level jet, where morning low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 60s with convective temperatures in the low 70s amid at least broken cloud cover. While shear will be strong (50+ knots), expect storm intensification to be gradual given ~750 MLCAPE and limited inhibition. However, by mid-afternoon as storms move into Louisiana, expect more robust storm development as instability increases and forcing for ascent intensifies as the mid-level trough starts to become more negatively tilted.
Significant mass response is expected after 21Z which will lead to a strengthening low-level jet and low-level shear. This timing will correspond well to peak diurnal heating and supercell intensity. As hodographs elongate between 21Z and 00Z, the low-level wind profile will become increasingly favorable with nearly pure streamwise vorticity in the lowest 750m of most forecast soundings. Most CAM guidance shows mature supercells in the region at this time which would support tornado potential, some potentially strong.
Diurnal thunderstorm activity is expected to become more linear through the evening with an increasing damaging wind threat. However, as the low-level jet intensifies, increasing isentropic ascent may be sufficient for additional warm-sector supercell development across Mississippi during the evening and into the overnight hours. The less favorable diurnal timing casts some doubt on the intensity of these supercells, but the wind profile will be extremely favorable (300+ m2/s2 0-500m SRH). Therefore, any strong supercells which develop in this region after dark would pose some strong tornado threat.
Mid-Mississippi Valley
The majority of 12Z CAM guidance shows a surface low track across northwest Mississippi. Therefore, the categorical Slight risk closely matches this mean surface low track. However, some guidance has a farther north track, most notably the FV3 near the MO Bootheel. Therefore since the Marginal risk is conditional on the surface low track, it now extends to the MO Bootheel, indicating the most likely northernmost extent of any potential threat for isolated damaging wind gusts from a low-CAPE convective line along the surface front.
..Bentley.. 11/19/2023