Federal Reserve's Rate Hikes Are Not Over (Here's Why) | Joseph Wang & Dominique Dwor-Frecaut

Ойын-сауық

Can the Fed hike to 7 or even 8%? Dominique Dwor-Frecaut, senior analyst at Macro Hive, thinks so. Dwor-Frecaut joins Jack Farley and Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Fed, who share their outlook for interest rates and inflation in 2023. Dwor-Frecaut has worked at the IMF, New York Fed, The World Bank, as well as several hedge funds such as Bridgewater.
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut's latest piece on Macro Hive Prime (moved in front of paywall for the benefit of Forward Guidance listeners): macrohive.com/hive-exclusives...
Joseph Wang’s latest piece, “Come Hell Or High Water”: fedguy.com/come-hell-or-high-...
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Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter / fedguy12
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This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through link.curve.com/forward_guidance, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.
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Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
01:05 February Fed Meeting Debrief
04:28 The (Bond) Market Is Wrong
07:11 Fed Could Hike Interest Rates to 7 or 8%"
01:03 Joseph Wang on How High The Fed Will Go
15:46 Counterarguments To An The Uber-Hawkish Case
28:06 Curve Ad
29:10 Why Is Inflation Falling?
36:57 Are Financial Conditions Actually Tightening?
46:34 The Fed's Ample Reserve Regime
57:40 Quantitative Tightening "Come Hell Or High Water"
01:07:17 Yield Curve Inversion May Exacerbate
01:10:40 How Would The Fed Get to 7 or 8%?
01:14:45 Higher For Longer!
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Пікірлер: 190

  • @DeFi-Macrodosing
    @DeFi-Macrodosing Жыл бұрын

    Joseph, what a great and kind introduction to Dominique. Classy.

  • @theonlyconstantischange123
    @theonlyconstantischange123 Жыл бұрын

    "HAHAAAA JACK! You're trying to trap me" 😂 Love Dominique and I learn a ton watching her on macro hive each week

  • @moon3173
    @moon3173 Жыл бұрын

    takes so much mental energy to understand Dom...

  • @danielslavin00

    @danielslavin00

    Жыл бұрын

    It’s because we’re used to tik tok logic

  • @jacquelinemassaro454

    @jacquelinemassaro454

    Жыл бұрын

    I used captions

  • @davidm1411
    @davidm1411 Жыл бұрын

    Thank God. Someone who understands the Real Estate market.

  • @111sunder

    @111sunder

    Жыл бұрын

    “balance sheets can absorb these increases.” - yea, right up until the stock market crashes and wider unemployment rises (layoffs already starting).

  • @Xmj202
    @Xmj202 Жыл бұрын

    When fed guy speaks I listen 👂

  • @Mathematics.is.perfect

    @Mathematics.is.perfect

    Жыл бұрын

    You guna need to because the other guest you can't understand 😅

  • @detrockcity3

    @detrockcity3

    Жыл бұрын

    @@Mathematics.is.perfect she’s clear for me.

  • @GenXstacker

    @GenXstacker

    Жыл бұрын

    So does EF Hutton.

  • @GenXstacker
    @GenXstacker Жыл бұрын

    I see Joseph, I click and prepare to learn.

  • @henrycrews9344
    @henrycrews9344 Жыл бұрын

    Great to see Joseph back.

  • @ticker3132
    @ticker3132 Жыл бұрын

    Excellent content. Keep up the great work ya'll.

  • @mattanderson6672
    @mattanderson6672 Жыл бұрын

    Thanks Guys!

  • @edreeves121
    @edreeves121 Жыл бұрын

    Superb. Thanks

  • @sghetrick
    @sghetrick Жыл бұрын

    Great show

  • @Outsidereport
    @Outsidereport Жыл бұрын

    Great insights 👍

  • @alanbartram3147
    @alanbartram3147 Жыл бұрын

    Fascinating … brilliant !

  • @stoneyj1a1
    @stoneyj1a1 Жыл бұрын

    Nobody has paid their student loans in 3 years. Billions on goods, houses, services, cars, etc. And there is still tons of stimulus programs available. Eviction moratoriums are still in place in many cities. The stimulus train has never stopped yet

  • @yamomanemjazz
    @yamomanemjazz Жыл бұрын

    Reminds me of milder version of George m Robinsons thesis ' the fed has lost its reaction function " I'm not qualified to have an opinion. Great show

  • @trapOrdoom
    @trapOrdoom Жыл бұрын

    “There’s something for zeh howx, and something for zeh dowvz” Her accent is godlike.

  • @verryveggie

    @verryveggie

    Жыл бұрын

    You are entranced? Just visit France! In each voice you will rejoice.

  • @Kid_Ikaris
    @Kid_Ikaris Жыл бұрын

    Haven't started yet, but realizing this about to be when I listen to another set of intelligent bonafide experts tell me the countering to what the last set of intelligent bonafide experts told me. Looking forward to the day when economics becomes a more settled science. At this point we're in the early stages in the grand scheme of things.

  • @AnneMarieBaiynd-TheTradingBook
    @AnneMarieBaiynd-TheTradingBook Жыл бұрын

    Loving this gal's accent -and commentary!

  • @MountainManEconomist
    @MountainManEconomist Жыл бұрын

    I agree with most of what is mentioned... However I've recently been given credit with "ZERO" verification. This is very worrisome. I'm sure I'm not the only one and there are many who are in worse financial situations. Reminds me a lot of 07/08

  • @b.h.1205

    @b.h.1205

    Жыл бұрын

    Just curious, what sort of credit product? BNPL, credit card, store credit...usually there's a verification in the background...that's co concerning for sure...

  • @MountainManEconomist

    @MountainManEconomist

    Жыл бұрын

    @@b.h.1205 credit card(s) and buying out a car lease.

  • @yamomanemjazz

    @yamomanemjazz

    Жыл бұрын

    @@b.h.1205 I don't know that guys situation but I am getting uptick in credit marketing as well.

  • @bosund7417
    @bosund7417 Жыл бұрын

    I wanted to hear them address the ability to service debt with continued rising interest rates. I keep hear people say that the Fed can't keep raising rates because of the debt burden. People use the term 'Catch 22'. I don't think Joseph or Dominique commented on that point. Perhaps they don't believe it's a real issue?

  • @jaysz6924
    @jaysz6924 Жыл бұрын

    Great chat….. to be faded…

  • @mohamedelwakdy7048
    @mohamedelwakdy7048 Жыл бұрын

    She is great

  • @detectiveofmoneypolitics
    @detectiveofmoneypolitics Жыл бұрын

    Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia 🇦🇺 still watching this informative content cheers Frank

  • @gregorkokalj9326
    @gregorkokalj9326 Жыл бұрын

    I think she is wrong. Does she know that the interest alone on debt for US is gonna be over 1T

  • @dt-jy1ig
    @dt-jy1ig Жыл бұрын

    Lending standards in the latest surveys are being tightened at a near record pace. Loan demand in all consumer categories have dropped in the latest surveys with auto loan demand plummeting. The situation in bank lending is deteriorating rapidly as credit conditions are in flux to a greater degree than your commentary suggests Joseph

  • @TM-fr7gh
    @TM-fr7gh Жыл бұрын

    Damn this woman is smart.

  • @detrockcity3
    @detrockcity3 Жыл бұрын

    Non-supervisory workers are getting the wage increases so the increasing gap between median and average wages makes sense.

  • @detrockcity3
    @detrockcity3 Жыл бұрын

    I express great displeasure and skepticism towards the entire concept of fractional reserve banking. Brigands and thieves. Off with their heads.

  • @Tendertroll1
    @Tendertroll1 Жыл бұрын

    They are forgetting that a lot of business loans have variable rates which can be detrimental in the future

  • @tc102167
    @tc102167 Жыл бұрын

    What about the fact that the CPI calc will be changing starting with the Feb 14 read for Jan. It will show steeper drops. If u can’t win the game u change the rules. The fed just moved the goal post!

  • @davidcollins8150
    @davidcollins8150 Жыл бұрын

    itzzzzzzzz all in zeee data - could not resist

  • @boombamm2457
    @boombamm2457 Жыл бұрын

    24:40 meanwhile, dollar getting stronger today

  • @newt13spacerider7
    @newt13spacerider7 Жыл бұрын

    Please tell me the name of the book & author on 'Central Banking" thank you kindly n. I found it very Interesting. Why is the crypto industry allowing 'Circle to pollute it with its centralization especially since it can freeze large amounts of its coins with the flick of a switch? Someone asked it to demonstrate that & they did. Is that not 1 of the things we all fear about government CBDCs. Plus since a lot of their funding is coming from the US Fed, ally governments, IMF Central Banks & WEF. Why is the industry not talking about this? If they are not careful Circle could end up owning most of it & DEFI will no longer be DEFI since it'll be controlled by the Middle Men!

  • @maxg9680
    @maxg9680 Жыл бұрын

    There is no debate about soft or hard landing after the Fed lets its foot off the brakes with persistent rate hikes. The savings of the working people are about to be depleted. To the consumer, persistent inflation, even at a "benign" 4-5% going forward, equates to bankruptcy. Like Larry Summers said, the economy is more and more resembling Will E. Coyote, as the rate hikes are clearly insufficient to turn back inflation, running at 5+% after a year of tightening.

  • @marinawong9662
    @marinawong9662 Жыл бұрын

    People borrow money to make more money if the interest rate is low

  • @donniemoder1466
    @donniemoder1466 Жыл бұрын

    Everyone talks Bout inflation going down but do not talk about the effects of inflation going up the last 2 years. Prices aren't going down, they just are going up slower.

  • @Bs-Mervo
    @Bs-Mervo Жыл бұрын

    ANL22T, ETH, and more would be great.

  • @First_Principals
    @First_Principals Жыл бұрын

    She should debate Jeffrey Snydner from Eurodollar University.

  • @DrakeonDigital
    @DrakeonDigital Жыл бұрын

    How can a market be right or wrong lol. The market is the market

  • @seiyachan
    @seiyachan Жыл бұрын

    high inflation (or any inflation) is not sustainable, so is zero interest (or very low) rates!

  • @yeswecan4312
    @yeswecan4312 Жыл бұрын

    Or, they could cook the books on both sides of the Philips curve. Change how you account for employment. I mean 573,000 jobs created in one month with 500,000 added due to “demographic changes”. Also, the BLS has re-indexed CPI to a single year (2021) when inflation was already high, instead of two years. Watch reported CPI come down in the next CPI readout. Pass the punch bowl around.

  • @shanedavison7473
    @shanedavison7473 Жыл бұрын

    Rich people are rolling in dough now but the working class is being crushed.

  • @jarirutanen8762

    @jarirutanen8762

    Жыл бұрын

    It is all according to the plan: the USA has become a neofeudal state.

  • @JamesMullarneyIsAFraud

    @JamesMullarneyIsAFraud

    Жыл бұрын

    thus as it ever was. I used to be poor. Was horrible.

  • @togoni

    @togoni

    Жыл бұрын

    So not correct. This communist ideas have no future.

  • @kedy2898
    @kedy2898 Жыл бұрын

    BUY THE *ANL22T* AND HOLD THE LINE BOYS.

  • @gringadoor5385
    @gringadoor5385 Жыл бұрын

    She sounds like an end boss from Assassin's Creed.

  • @MattCRHughes
    @MattCRHughes Жыл бұрын

    Jeff Snider needs to be invited back to respond.

  • @itechfive240
    @itechfive240 Жыл бұрын

    I thought that was a man. Wang you know inflation is not coming down in 23 and even the fattest dove Daly said she knows the rate needs to be 5% in 23 and likely to go higher in 24. This market can't even handle 4%

  • @richardc861
    @richardc861 Жыл бұрын

    ANL22T will do X2 maybe 3 max, you know it bro

  • @DragonBallFan685
    @DragonBallFan685 Жыл бұрын

    Can ANL22T be staked on Ledger?

  • @richardc861

    @richardc861

    Жыл бұрын

    No

  • @-Blick182-
    @-Blick182- Жыл бұрын

    The guest said "uuuhhhhh" way too much I could not finish the episode

  • @veitastic6866
    @veitastic6866 Жыл бұрын

    It seems like the bots have taking over the comment section. Too bad, i really enjoyed reading them.

  • @wtpwtp
    @wtpwtp Жыл бұрын

    Dominique is completely wrong that we have had the lowest employment rate in 50 years. So many people have lost their jobs due to the anti-science C-19 "vaccine" mandates who do not show up in the unemployment numbers!

  • @nicholasstenta2470
    @nicholasstenta2470 Жыл бұрын

    Powell seemed like he was on some downers, 100% serious, he seemed like he was on drugs. like homer in the simpsons x files episode. odd

  • @yunusbey_peynircilik
    @yunusbey_peynircilik Жыл бұрын

    ANL22T oNLY Few hours OLD !! IMAGINE THE POTENTIAL

  • @WallaceRoseVincent
    @WallaceRoseVincent Жыл бұрын

    Where is Jeff Snider when you need him? I'd like to hear his reaction to this video. Jeff Snider and Emil Kowalski vs Dominique and Joseph would be a great slug fest!

  • @trapOrdoom

    @trapOrdoom

    Жыл бұрын

    Agreed. Jeff comes off as a know-it-all which is hard to listen to sometimes, but I’d love to hear him debate his ideas against someone just as smart.

  • @johnnyairport

    @johnnyairport

    Жыл бұрын

    Emil bounced when Jeff brought in Steve Van Meter and for good reason.

  • @anonymousAJ

    @anonymousAJ

    Жыл бұрын

    I'd watch a roundtable with Jeff Snider, Joseph Wang, Tom Luongo and Bret Johnson

  • @detrockcity3

    @detrockcity3

    Жыл бұрын

    @@anonymousAJ no doubt. where are the debates?!? bring it on.

  • @norvikvoskanian4294

    @norvikvoskanian4294

    Жыл бұрын

    Would be a great debate but the timing of these needs to be discussed. They can all be right on different timescales and magnitudes

  • @aslanultra.1905
    @aslanultra.1905 Жыл бұрын

    I'm DCAing in ANL22T as well. ETH heavier DCA and ALGO. I'm taking your advice and starting Google tomorrow with a 50 dollar purchase and continuing Microsoft and Apple. VTI and VOO on another app and longterm portfolio. Here we go family!

  • @keremcelik2727
    @keremcelik2727 Жыл бұрын

    Excellent content. I used the last dip to stock up, buying ANL22T now its cheap, can't miss the presale.

  • @tunarmelikov7787
    @tunarmelikov7787 Жыл бұрын

    Truly love your candidness, I DCAed today again for BTC ANL22T and ETH

  • @MinchlX
    @MinchlX Жыл бұрын

    Hell yes $ ANL22T. Going to have a huge Q4

  • @richardc861

    @richardc861

    Жыл бұрын

    Hope you are right

  • @Ayloshmusum
    @Ayloshmusum Жыл бұрын

    Thank you for your research. I find your videos are well done. Will ANL22T hit 1000? Not sure but I hope so.

  • @richardc861

    @richardc861

    Жыл бұрын

    May never move from zero 🙈

  • @drphilipk
    @drphilipk Жыл бұрын

    We can run inflation hotter. 2% is a made up target by some NZ central banker. We will still be rational at 3-4%. Singapore had been running core at 5% for decades and kept its workers salaries blindingly higher. Everybody there now earns more than Americans across the board. How did they do this? They kept their foreign labor and maids salaries below minimum standards. We have a more dynamic and educated work force, let's run it hotter.

  • @BAY_AZRAİLL
    @BAY_AZRAİLL Жыл бұрын

    ANL22T, a pick with potential if they follow through!

  • @yusasavur
    @yusasavur Жыл бұрын

    DCA ANL22T and chill. You'll be obnoxiously rich in less than 5 years. What's 5 years among friends?

  • @kdddozkxk5144
    @kdddozkxk5144 Жыл бұрын

    AMZ to the moon

  • @incawarrior5470
    @incawarrior5470 Жыл бұрын

    Listen to Joseph if you want the same narrative that is discussed at CNBC.. just saying…

  • @dolunayyyay5996
    @dolunayyyay5996 Жыл бұрын

    Exciting times for Amazon’s *ANL22T* and it's community.

  • @yuki-pubgmobile6224
    @yuki-pubgmobile6224 Жыл бұрын

    You cant fight the ANL22T Fomo haha

  • @hamdikaya7272
    @hamdikaya7272 Жыл бұрын

    should you sell a little of ANL22T when you start to make a profit or just hold?

  • @klty7721
    @klty7721 Жыл бұрын

    Imagine missing the Amazon ANL22T on-going presale, HODL STRONG the public sale about to explode

  • @personalfreedom2700
    @personalfreedom2700 Жыл бұрын

    Pretty surprised there was not 1 mention of the biggest driver of deflation over the past 20 years… technology. AI will decimate employment and demand.

  • @sagitta4291

    @sagitta4291

    Жыл бұрын

    And demographics as well

  • @IT_Farhan

    @IT_Farhan

    Жыл бұрын

    No, humans will just do non-menial jobs. 200 years of industrialization, automation, and computing and we are at 3.4% unemployment.

  • @personalfreedom2700

    @personalfreedom2700

    Жыл бұрын

    @@IT_Farhan 5 million people leave the labor force and unemployment goes down… you need to dig deeper bro 😎

  • @kelvinphua5066
    @kelvinphua5066 Жыл бұрын

    Uhhhhhhhhhhh

  • @jetonkadrija3429
    @jetonkadrija3429 Жыл бұрын

    Thank you for the update ANL22T is done right, and waiting is part of the process,

  • @gulhekimoglu9133
    @gulhekimoglu9133 Жыл бұрын

    We will rise with ANL22T and Matic!!! Just HODL

  • @mutantryeff
    @mutantryeff Жыл бұрын

    We need to fix the "IN GOD WE TRUST" on the Fiat Federal Reserve Note to be "IN GOLD WE TRUST"

  • @anonymousAJ

    @anonymousAJ

    Жыл бұрын

    Let's amend the Constitution - add something in there that says "No state shall make any thing but gold or silver coin a tender in payment of debt"

  • @archpacman
    @archpacman Жыл бұрын

    I've dumped all of my SOL- its toast for now. All converted to ANL22T and king BTC.

  • @35anil11
    @35anil11 Жыл бұрын

    Could you please talk about ANL22T it’s very strong and took off in short time thanks.

  • @jacknaneek1681
    @jacknaneek1681 Жыл бұрын

    Classic. Bond market is wrong by Joe Wang is right. Bureaucrats always right

  • @mikerinaldi7170
    @mikerinaldi7170 Жыл бұрын

    Holy spam!!!

  • @ESMALO
    @ESMALO Жыл бұрын

    I’ve heard Amazon is killing it with *ANL22T*

  • @JaaraGaming01
    @JaaraGaming01 Жыл бұрын

    So basically bearish on everything except amazon's ANL22T

  • @S3N4.0
    @S3N4.0 Жыл бұрын

    We'll see about that. I don't mind to see the crash. I just hope I'll have a lot of USDT to buy more ANL22T live presale.

  • @sevginindilirengi3131
    @sevginindilirengi3131 Жыл бұрын

    if ANL22T can grow organically like that they will dominate that industry

  • @kombinbenimisim8503
    @kombinbenimisim8503 Жыл бұрын

    Boys is it best to invest in *ANL22T* monthly or weekly? I'm thinking the fees will be higher if done weekly.

  • @sigmakeloglan
    @sigmakeloglan Жыл бұрын

    When I started the crypto process in 2017, there were few youtubers I trusted and you were one of them. This video confirms my impressions. As for me, I continue to DCA ANL22T.

  • @ENES_LORD2
    @ENES_LORD2 Жыл бұрын

    Can't deny the fact that Amazons ANL22T is the strongest bet to bring power back to this industry after we suffered FTX, Celsius, Tera and so on. Sure if they fail it's done for good, but I don't see that the biggest tech company in the world would put everything at risk just for that.

  • @utku1399
    @utku1399 Жыл бұрын

    BRO WHY ARE YOU NOT TALKING ABOUT ANL22T

  • @sjsjjdjdjdjdjsksk
    @sjsjjdjdjdjdjsksk Жыл бұрын

    Everyone waited for Amazon to create ANL22T and the time is ready

  • @iolaahmedova1788
    @iolaahmedova1788 Жыл бұрын

    I already converted all my ETH to ANL22T, now I feel like moving all my BTC to ADA as well.

  • @sisterbrothers1677
    @sisterbrothers1677 Жыл бұрын

    What's her Only Fans?

  • @aydanaliyeva5171
    @aydanaliyeva5171 Жыл бұрын

    I'm still bullish on crypto. Buying the dip on great projects like Algorand and ANL22T 😎

  • @westartie
    @westartie Жыл бұрын

    Been staking with ANL22T!

  • @richardc861

    @richardc861

    Жыл бұрын

    Good luck

  • @ahmetfratagca
    @ahmetfratagca Жыл бұрын

    I’m buying ANL22T on sale, waiting for BTC to maybe drop again before I add more. Hope to take some Eth profits by Sept proof of stake

  • @sasdasd5380
    @sasdasd5380 Жыл бұрын

    Not sure about BTC and ETH, but putting USDT in ANL22T for 10x makes sense.

  • @richardc861

    @richardc861

    Жыл бұрын

    Stick with BTC, safer

  • @project7702
    @project7702 Жыл бұрын

    We'll be going to the bottom within 6-9 months. For now, DCA-ing bi-weekly with 21usd in ANL22T /BTC and monthly 21 in CRO.

  • @messi_edits6
    @messi_edits6 Жыл бұрын

    ANL22T at less than $1. is like BTC at $100. When ANL22T finally blows it's gonna be epic.

  • @Relaxo17
    @Relaxo17 Жыл бұрын

    While everyone is focused on BTC, ETH or any top alt coin and playing defensive they are missing on quality projects that are about to be launched on CEX. For example ANL22T will hit mainstream soon, 10x-20x quite possible even during this bear market but only few people know about this.

  • @DavidSmith-on7os
    @DavidSmith-on7os Жыл бұрын

    You should buy ETH and ANL22T if you care about your future

  • @o7adam819
    @o7adam819 Жыл бұрын

    Why is ANL22T doing so well? That is concerning to me.

  • @richardc861

    @richardc861

    Жыл бұрын

    Me too, given it’s not real 😂

  • @KatanaInc
    @KatanaInc Жыл бұрын

    I’d rather buy ANL22T, atom, polka and polygon!

  • @sirzad36tv74
    @sirzad36tv74 Жыл бұрын

    WOW This may be the last time you can get ANL22T before it takes off 5,000%.

  • @mehmetemin3476
    @mehmetemin3476 Жыл бұрын

    ANL22T is brilliant. Hold the line crypto investors !

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