Fallout 76 How To Get All Rare Masks // The Science Behind Loot Drops

Ойындар

Here's the complete science behind #Fasnachtfallout76 loot drops that shows how to get all rare masks if that's what you're after. Full disclosure - this math HURTS!
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00:00:00 - Bethesda archives
00:00:48 - Theories vs Math
00:01:13 - Conspiracy theory 1
00:01:48 - Conspiracy theory 2
00:02:26 - How AFKing affects the game
00:03:39 - Conspiracy theory 3
00:04:19 - FO76 slow servers
00:06:42 - Conspiracy theory 4
00:06:58 - Event nuked
00:07:35 - Conspiracy theory 5
00:08:18 - SCIENCE!
00:08:23 - Mask rarity drop chance
00:09:45 - Your ACTUAL chances
00:10:51 - How many times to run event!?
00:11:49 - HOLY COW! That math SUCKS!
00:12:10 - Fasnacht mask pool
00:13:12 - To AFK or to walk?
00:13:39 - Thanks for watching!
We are No0dlP4ntz and oskapt. Thanks for watching!
If there is anything specific that you would like us to cover in the next #fallout76 video, please drop us a comment.

Пікірлер: 456

  • @Gamer_Aviator
    @Gamer_Aviator4 ай бұрын

    Get special perks as a channel MEMBER: kzread.info/dron/dASLtoFu2Y2ed-lD1LA7JQ.htmljoin

  • @PiLotTRr
    @PiLotTRr4 ай бұрын

    A fun story. The drop rates in 2019 were broken. The uncommon and rare masks both had a 1% drop rate. So when they brought the event back in 2020 they adjusted the drop rates so people would have a better chance to get the uncommon masks they desperately wanted. So they made the uncommon rate higher than the common. And Bethesda being Bethesda, they never bothered to change it again.

  • @Gamer_Aviator

    @Gamer_Aviator

    4 ай бұрын

    That's funny.

  • @Gamer_Aviator

    @Gamer_Aviator

    4 ай бұрын

    no way! that's crazy. it explains why the drop rate is skewed. i love how everyone just expects bethesda to screw everything up. -oskapt

  • @asianartist1

    @asianartist1

    4 ай бұрын

    fucking a - this makes a LOT of sense. i remember how hard that shit was.... it was so hard i stopped running fasnacht for like 1-2 years...

  • @funrun07haan50

    @funrun07haan50

    4 ай бұрын

    U gotta love bethesda for their trolling😂😂

  • @gametime2473

    @gametime2473

    4 ай бұрын

    This is the first Fasnacht I have gotten anything decent.

  • @eingames9931
    @eingames99314 ай бұрын

    The common masks are tied to how many bots survive. Players are so good at getting the bots to live that most times the odds are in favor of getting the uncommon ones. If some die then it becomes in favor of the common masks.

  • @darthsilversith667

    @darthsilversith667

    4 ай бұрын

    If 1 bot dies, you lose all chances at getting a rare

  • @Buderbukz

    @Buderbukz

    4 ай бұрын

    As darthsilversith667 as said. It's true. If even one bot dies, everyone is automatically disqualified from getting a rare. If that happens, quickly jump to another server and try and join another event that has 5 alive bots before it ends.

  • @fnusecurity5112

    @fnusecurity5112

    4 ай бұрын

    @@Buderbukz Been trying to jump in between events to do it twice in a hour. Your timing has to be perfect. Every time I tried, the Event already been done for and everyone gone. Do you have to wait for the awards to show up before you jump or the completion notice?

  • @Buderbukz

    @Buderbukz

    4 ай бұрын

    @@fnusecurity5112 In the scenario I stated, if any bot dies, immediately jump, do not wait for rewards. Leave the server and join another asap. If you are just trying to jump servers to get in more events, "no bots died", then yes wait for rewards before jumping. It isn't easy to find an event that hasn't finished on another server, but it can be done.

  • @Buderbukz

    @Buderbukz

    4 ай бұрын

    Say for example the super mutant stage a bot dies, leave right away and try a new server. There is absolutely no point staying on the server with dead bots as you will not even be in the running for a rare.

  • @Sandyman406
    @Sandyman4064 ай бұрын

    Got my first glowing mask today after 59 attempts…

  • @Gamer_Aviator

    @Gamer_Aviator

    4 ай бұрын

    Rock on. This math hurts, doesn't? :D

  • @jimmyx2834

    @jimmyx2834

    4 ай бұрын

    Yup. Haven't gotten one yet and I've done at least 30...finally got the raven which is the only one I have seen duplicated yet got me. Hopefully glowing blue devil fingers crossed

  • @llkjjjss

    @llkjjjss

    10 күн бұрын

    Got my first on my forth attempt.

  • @Lameloserlmao

    @Lameloserlmao

    Күн бұрын

    Got mine after 80 or so. But now I have 3.

  • @JustAPinkLugia
    @JustAPinkLugia4 ай бұрын

    For Fo76 servers running slow due to AFKers there’s also people who join the game when the game starts. It’s insane how bad loading times become

  • @Gamer_Aviator

    @Gamer_Aviator

    4 ай бұрын

    watch the video, dude. ;) -NP

  • @JustAPinkLugia

    @JustAPinkLugia

    4 ай бұрын

    @@Gamer_Aviator I uhhh.. I did. I don’t remember you mentioning everyone logging on at the same time. Just a lot of players being in 1 location. With each player having to load, render, and have sound to effects, explosions, and other players

  • @Gamer_Aviator

    @Gamer_Aviator

    4 ай бұрын

    i agree with you that the additional load of people spawning into the server at event time can cause problems. i've noticed the last few times that i was nuked out or the game crashed, and i tried to rejoin a server within the first 10 minutes of the event starting, that i get put onto a new, empty server where the event never started. i don't know if that's a new development or if i'm just unlucky at trying to get into a server and hit the end of the event. - oskapt

  • @LiberalsAreAllLosers-hp5wj
    @LiberalsAreAllLosers-hp5wj4 ай бұрын

    Had 4 of us running the event for 8 straight hours yesterday and 4 others on another server AFKing....0 glowing mask..

  • @deestonebreaker

    @deestonebreaker

    4 ай бұрын

    yup our own testing has shown that glowing mask has about a 0.5% chance. truly we have 1 out of over 240 events

  • @soulreaver64
    @soulreaver644 ай бұрын

    I got lucky with the 2 rare masks off the get when the event first started this time around. the problem is Bugthisduh is overly diluting the loot pool with each year of the event in order to time gate and push despairing people to the cash shop to buy their masks. I say hold out on the atomic shop until you get all the ingame rares just to push back and send a message.

  • @jeffbarnesyout
    @jeffbarnesyout4 ай бұрын

    Actually you could argue that AFKers aren't interacting much with the area (no weapons fired, etc.), so they probably have less impact on the speed of the server than ones who are actually playing. Yes, the growing mask pool has been making getting any particular mask that much harder. I think Bethesda should have rethought the drop rate before doing this. Thanks for the video.

  • @Gamer_Aviator

    @Gamer_Aviator

    4 ай бұрын

    Yeah, good point!

  • @malotonga4957

    @malotonga4957

    4 ай бұрын

    Also if adding more masks instead of 1 a hour they should do twice an hour or stating time instead of 7mins to talk to mc make it 10 mins so we can do double dips easier

  • @htmn4712

    @htmn4712

    4 ай бұрын

    @@malotonga4957god no, please don’t make us do fasnacht twice every hour

  • @thistle76

    @thistle76

    4 ай бұрын

    I have played and afk 120 times and only got 1 glowing... they are right about as the pool grows the chances of getting the rares go way down...they should of demoted the older rare masks to uncommon the old uncommon to common... then you will have a better chance of actually getting the new rares!

  • @thistle76

    @thistle76

    4 ай бұрын

    ​@@malotonga4957not so easy to double bip unless you have friends on other servers slowing it down...if you rush to get to another server why wouldn't they?

  • @havokstrife7094
    @havokstrife70944 ай бұрын

    I have fully participated in over 40 events and nada, so now I do actually afk it,why bust my ass for nothing.

  • @cgimichaelmyers2806

    @cgimichaelmyers2806

    4 ай бұрын

    Plus when you try to do the event people kill everything in less than a second so it's just better not to take part in the event.

  • @seanowens3153

    @seanowens3153

    Ай бұрын

    Bright light explosions blind my eyes and afk I go.

  • @lushdog4538

    @lushdog4538

    4 күн бұрын

    Also the less controls I push the more stable my connection and less crashes.

  • @datboi1971
    @datboi19714 ай бұрын

    Thank you for capturing footage of me and my friends! Fasnacht is fun and frustrating at the same time lol

  • @Gamer_Aviator

    @Gamer_Aviator

    4 ай бұрын

    :) yay! Indeed. Well said - fun and frustrating. -NP

  • @sammert7021
    @sammert70214 ай бұрын

    Great video, I finally got a rare mask today, a death claw one. Was AFK for 99% as had to make food but helped end the sloth and wolves. Might try that again!

  • @Gamer_Aviator

    @Gamer_Aviator

    4 ай бұрын

    Thanks! Niiiice. Congrats on the Deathclaw. That's a really cool one.

  • @seccosec

    @seccosec

    4 ай бұрын

    “Helped with the sloth”… I rarely have time to land a hit on it before it gets annihilated by half a dozen of mid-lvl and their uninspired railway op builds…

  • @sammert7021

    @sammert7021

    4 ай бұрын

    @@seccosec yeah I've played a couple of the events and not hit anything as some had one tap guns. Annoying but what's worse is when people spam the fat man and you cant see anything. At least you still get something from the sloth even if did not hit him.

  • @ImperialMunki

    @ImperialMunki

    4 ай бұрын

    Y'all get mad if we don't participate then get mad if we do 😂😂 ​@@seccosec

  • @StudioCreations
    @StudioCreations4 ай бұрын

    I have marched in 30+ Fasnacht Events so far this year and not one Rare Mask has dropped for me yet. The odds have not been in my favor. I will say, one of those events failed because no one had a God-Weapon in the 4-man group that actually walked in the parade (11 AFKers in the area though) and 3 Robots died at the very end (glowing wolves tore them to pieces) . AFKers need to participate in the event for the event to be successful, or no one will ever get rare masks. Ultimately this years Fasnacht has been very frustrating for me. :)

  • @peterclarke7240

    @peterclarke7240

    4 ай бұрын

    Mate, I hate to make it sound like I'm telling you to git gud, but the event is insanely easy. You don't need a God weapon or even legendaries to complete it.

  • @KentuckyRanger
    @KentuckyRanger4 ай бұрын

    Naturally, Reddit is going insane, with people thinking their new shiny glowing masks, should demand insane trades. I guess I'll just wait a while, after the event, for the dust to settle, and try to trade some of my rare non glowing masks, when peoples inflated egos come back down to Earth, LOL!

  • @scubasteve3032
    @scubasteve30324 ай бұрын

    Hey, great video! Very well put together! I finally after playing hours on end, I got the exact mask I wanted, the Glowing Blue Devil Mask!

  • @Gamer_Aviator

    @Gamer_Aviator

    4 ай бұрын

    Niiice! And thanks!

  • @twothreeactual9254
    @twothreeactual92544 ай бұрын

    Really enjoyed the breakdown. This event is always interesting lol. Toxicity is always up the roof the first week. After it kinda dies down. At least what ive always noticed. Anyway been very lucky this year… and all my rares attained via: AFK!! However when you afk, I got you with my quad rail explosive, nothing gets passed me. And of course a fire healing weapon.

  • @chris5942
    @chris59424 ай бұрын

    AFKers did statistically increase the number of bunched panties on any given server.

  • @gutzboy1

    @gutzboy1

    4 ай бұрын

    I call BS because I never saw any dropped panties at Fasnacht!

  • @clymdodds1020

    @clymdodds1020

    4 ай бұрын

    You’re a Slacker, Mcfly….

  • @chris5942

    @chris5942

    4 ай бұрын

    @@clymdodds1020 I play my share for the next shift AFKers. I have yet to see not enough players to win.

  • @clymdodds1020

    @clymdodds1020

    4 ай бұрын

    @942 It would take a little organisation. But as myth busters say"Failure is always an option" I would add apathy can kill anything and never underestimate human spite when it comes to getting nothing so that You get nothing too.... Anyway Fk the masks the smart money's farming infinite squirrel..... AFKers just drank the cool aid.

  • @seanowens3153

    @seanowens3153

    Ай бұрын

    ​@@chris5942it's a back to the future reference brotha, no one cares if you afk

  • @johnw8578
    @johnw85784 ай бұрын

    I heard from my cousin's girlfriend's mother's ex-neighbor's son's former-best-friend's uncle that if you eat a Fasnacht donut just before the effigy is burnt, you get a better chance at the rare masks.

  • @Gamer_Aviator

    @Gamer_Aviator

    4 ай бұрын

    hahahahahahah nice one.

  • @bellaing6963
    @bellaing69634 ай бұрын

    This was a good video. Well done & Informative. Ty guys 👍

  • @Gamer_Aviator

    @Gamer_Aviator

    4 ай бұрын

    Thanks! 👍 -NP

  • @barbadosslim5099
    @barbadosslim50994 ай бұрын

    This is the first time I watch a video in which science is actually it. Very, very nice indeed. Left my like and also subscribed. Very good job, gals 🤝🏻

  • @brandonfleming8910
    @brandonfleming89104 ай бұрын

    This is my first time participating in the event, missed out the other year and it sucks trying to get the old rare mask. I end up dropping all the common and uncommon ones cause i dont need a shit load of them😂

  • @Gamer_Aviator

    @Gamer_Aviator

    4 ай бұрын

    Yeah, you know we wish that they would put the old masks up in the Atomic Shop and offer only new ones during the event. That would make A LOT more sense.

  • @ImChurro
    @ImChurro4 ай бұрын

    The odds might be low but the odds are 0 if you don't participate so AFK away I say

  • @Gamer_Aviator

    @Gamer_Aviator

    4 ай бұрын

    YES!

  • @nigelwiffen6743
    @nigelwiffen67434 ай бұрын

    a great video ,thank you loved it.

  • @Gamer_Aviator

    @Gamer_Aviator

    4 ай бұрын

    Thanks!

  • @thecoffemug6574
    @thecoffemug65744 ай бұрын

    Great vid!

  • @Gamer_Aviator

    @Gamer_Aviator

    4 ай бұрын

    Thanks!

  • @jamesjosephgilchrist6616
    @jamesjosephgilchrist66164 ай бұрын

    Any research on the decorations, what combinations might affect turn out i run solo to avoid worthless afkers

  • @Gamer_Aviator

    @Gamer_Aviator

    4 ай бұрын

    Haven't looked into decorations yet, but I can tell you that I haven't gotten a single new plan for decorations. -NP

  • @jamesjosephgilchrist6616

    @jamesjosephgilchrist6616

    4 ай бұрын

    @@Gamer_Aviator jus a idea but i do know if keep a set of regular mask on you it atleast prevents more the same from popping sucks doing alone but have not had team in years

  • @brianrmc1963
    @brianrmc19634 ай бұрын

    I love this. Still waiting for a glowing one.

  • @Gamer_Aviator

    @Gamer_Aviator

    4 ай бұрын

    Best of luck. Keep at it.

  • @matzewrath
    @matzewrath3 күн бұрын

    Well done breakdown of the fastnacht odds! I acutally got the glowing scorchbeast queen mask you mentioned. Damn, I guess I drained all my luck for an good while with that drop ^^'

  • @user-nn8uc7to4j
    @user-nn8uc7to4j4 ай бұрын

    Got 1 glowing atm, But, got god roll fixer from rewards xD I think my rng luck has been drained with that

  • @Gamer_Aviator

    @Gamer_Aviator

    4 ай бұрын

    :)

  • @spongbob18
    @spongbob184 ай бұрын

    ive done 100 ish with 2 characters 1 Afk so 50ish runs and only got 1 glowing its brutal thats on xbox

  • @HaydenMarkle-xc3fp
    @HaydenMarkle-xc3fp4 ай бұрын

    I ran the event 83 times and only got the winter man mask but I’m not complaining

  • @bandardantoly
    @bandardantoly2 сағат бұрын

    I don't even care about the glowing masks, I just want a Buffoon.

  • @liamjoe3690
    @liamjoe36904 ай бұрын

    I’ve run this event over 142 times so far. I keep the masks until Fasnacht is over and run a tally. So far I have over 8 rare drops and no duplicates this year. Run this video again afterwards and I will update my tally.

  • @3meralddoughnut
    @3meralddoughnut4 ай бұрын

    I'm still waiting for a single rare one.

  • @Lameloserlmao
    @LameloserlmaoКүн бұрын

    I have 3, i got 2 at 7am, and 1 at 7pm. I think you have a higher chance at getting it, but only if you've been in the same server for a few hours. At least that's how I've done it. That or Bethesda raised the odds.

  • @timostrom426
    @timostrom4264 ай бұрын

    i run 2 ps4s, 2 accounts. i run the event with one while the other plays tuba. sometimes they both play tubas, on dufferent servers. afk etiquette: play musical instrument or hide really good and don't wear a rare mask. people can push you out of the event, or lure enemies in to kill you, or nuke it. seeing a bunch of dorks spinning with your precious masks on bumms people out and makes them want to mess with you.

  • @Gamer_Aviator

    @Gamer_Aviator

    4 ай бұрын

    true

  • @Pipdad3000
    @Pipdad30004 ай бұрын

    Do the chance percentages reset everything I get booted ?

  • @Gamer_Aviator

    @Gamer_Aviator

    4 ай бұрын

    You have the same percentage chance of getting a rare mask every time. -NP

  • @kevinmckenna7261
    @kevinmckenna72614 ай бұрын

    Got one glowing mask at a nuked event and nothing since, jesters toothies etc. Not bothering now just ignoring the event and all those wasted nukes. Couple of days to go. Happy Fastnacht

  • @dragonmac1234
    @dragonmac12344 ай бұрын

    I usually play the game three or four hours a day and I think I've received more berets than anything else. Owl, Jester, Skull and (in the last couple of days) Scorchbeast masks have been dropping for me. I've also made a few caps selling radtoad and wolf meat to the vendors

  • @Gamer_Aviator

    @Gamer_Aviator

    4 ай бұрын

    Oh yes, same here. The radtoad omelettes are the new gulper slurries. :P I also just sell all my legendary weapons right away, since I'm pretty much married to my Holy Fire flamer. -NP

  • @dragonmac1234

    @dragonmac1234

    4 ай бұрын

    @@Gamer_Aviator Same here I have three Holy Fire's, one to burn everything to a crisp and another two for that OTT vibe 🔥😄

  • @Gamer_Aviator

    @Gamer_Aviator

    4 ай бұрын

    @@dragonmac1234 I wish I had different pint for it though. Mine's just regular looking.

  • @simontisdell
    @simontisdell4 күн бұрын

    How do you know how many times yourve run an event?

  • @Gamer_Aviator

    @Gamer_Aviator

    4 күн бұрын

    We keep track of how many masks we get and of what type. Total number of masks equals total number of events.

  • @robertalexander4310
    @robertalexander43104 ай бұрын

    I am at over 100 and no rares

  • @buttkickshibby
    @buttkickshibby4 ай бұрын

    What’s the story if I’m getting 0/20? 0 out of any number. My gf has gotten 2 and seems normal. I’ve done more events by at least double, and haven’t gotten a single glowing :/

  • @mamayl8592
    @mamayl85924 ай бұрын

    Just got my first glowing mask ( non-queen scorchbeast ). Have run the event probably 20-30 times. Just happy I got the first one under my belt, now everything else is gravy IMHO. Also got a father winter helmet.

  • @Gamer_Aviator

    @Gamer_Aviator

    4 ай бұрын

    That helmet is rare. Hold on to it. -NP

  • @AnimeShinigami13
    @AnimeShinigami134 ай бұрын

    Something bizzare happened to me odds wise at Fasnacht yesterday afternoon. I've been running a camp shop more or less since Fasnacht began south of town by the road. Grahm, the super mutant vendor came walking through my camp and through the intersection where the toads spawn during Fasnacht FOUR TIMES in an afternoon. I'm really curious what the odds of that are because yesterday the RNG really seemed to like him. Made me wonder if it glitched out or something or if I really was that lucky. Each time he was headed towards town I ran ahead, plugged in my headphones and called out "Grahm's coming guys!!! intersection with the toads! he's coming if you need to sell something!!!!"

  • @Exolt-
    @Exolt-4 ай бұрын

    I know it’s anecdotal but I swear 70% of the players who I see have glowing masks are under level 50. There has to be a correlation with your level and the drop rate. Almost feels as if Bethesda gives newer players a better drop rate.

  • @Gamer_Aviator

    @Gamer_Aviator

    4 ай бұрын

    hahaha that's funny

  • @Tyejohnston

    @Tyejohnston

    17 сағат бұрын

    @@Exolt- probably trying to get lower players to keep playing the game.

  • @poptarget
    @poptarget4 ай бұрын

    I think they should move some of the old rare masks from the rare pool to the uncommon pool when they introduce new ones. Based on popularity, move say the Raven, Winter Man, etc. out of the rare pool. I'm not convinced that there isn't a sub-category in the rare pool. This is my first Fasnacht and I've gotten the Raven, Brahmin, Winter Man and Hag from the rare category. No glowing or loon (the ones everyone wants)

  • @Gamer_Aviator

    @Gamer_Aviator

    4 ай бұрын

    yes. definitely. the ever-growing pool is making new rare masks nearly-unattainable. -NP

  • @rickx723
    @rickx7234 ай бұрын

    Nice video thank you

  • @Gamer_Aviator

    @Gamer_Aviator

    4 ай бұрын

    Thanks for watching.

  • @RingGeneralOG
    @RingGeneralOG4 ай бұрын

    What’s your thoughts on doing the tasks giving you a higher chance for better drop?

  • @Gamer_Aviator

    @Gamer_Aviator

    4 ай бұрын

    Haven't seen any evidence that that helps. I do them all. -NP

  • @RingGeneralOG

    @RingGeneralOG

    4 ай бұрын

    @@Gamer_Aviatorthanks for your reply

  • @perceivedvelocity9914
    @perceivedvelocity99144 ай бұрын

    It feels like a lot more people are going AFK this year.

  • @chris5942

    @chris5942

    4 ай бұрын

    I think they are trying to side husstle the rare masks for $ outside of the game. Cant blame them. Its rough out here.

  • @kyleportwood6169
    @kyleportwood61694 ай бұрын

    I've played every time I could and crashed on about 40-50 fasnacht events didn't get any rewards for the crashed events I only have 2 rare makes I've done the event over 100 times or the robot freeze in place and I gotta wait another hour to trying hoping I don't crash

  • @Gamer_Aviator

    @Gamer_Aviator

    4 ай бұрын

    I feel the crashing has gotten worse. -NP

  • @billhimself934
    @billhimself9344 ай бұрын

    That into was incredible

  • @rylanvaudry8016
    @rylanvaudry80164 ай бұрын

    I got the glow queen my second time!

  • @Slabbedask
    @Slabbedask4 ай бұрын

    I have so many masks i have no more space on the wall in my room where i display my rare items. The two last fasnachts have been crazy.

  • @VanillaFace413
    @VanillaFace4134 ай бұрын

    Does having a higher luck stat affect drop rates?

  • @Gamer_Aviator

    @Gamer_Aviator

    4 ай бұрын

    We have had that question, and we have no way of knowing or testing. We suspect yes. -NP

  • @Hopalongtom

    @Hopalongtom

    4 ай бұрын

    Only your real life luck, ingame stats do not make a difference!

  • @franciscoluna2126
    @franciscoluna21264 ай бұрын

    Bro I got my father winter pa helmet while afk and scrapped it without looking twice thesame day. Huge face palm moment but the hunt continues.😂

  • @kevinle1841
    @kevinle184129 күн бұрын

    That opening scene was nuts

  • @krazykaz8316
    @krazykaz83164 ай бұрын

    I still have yet to get a Glowing Mask

  • @obidasauceman6140
    @obidasauceman61404 ай бұрын

    It took me EXACTLY 72 hours to get one glowing mask

  • @obidasauceman6140

    @obidasauceman6140

    4 ай бұрын

    Ik this because I counted the masks, each mask is one event and in total that's amount of masks I have obtained

  • @obidasauceman6140

    @obidasauceman6140

    4 ай бұрын

    I was also afk for all of the events besides 5 when the event first launched

  • @obidasauceman6140

    @obidasauceman6140

    4 ай бұрын

    I just realized the new glowing masks are in the same category of rare masks so in that case I have a total of 4 rare masks only one of them were glowing

  • @restlessGuy69
    @restlessGuy694 ай бұрын

    Did 90+ runs on my main account and got absolutely no rare masks 😭but the moment I decided to make an alt account to AFK for the last week of fasnacht i got 3 in the span of 40ish runs……im absolutely floored at this

  • @ashleyreynolds8443
    @ashleyreynolds84433 күн бұрын

    I've done the event about 30 times now. Haven't got a single rare mask. Got so many uncommon ones I've been dropping them for the guys I play with. Still haven't seen that butter churn either

  • @mgf555
    @mgf5554 ай бұрын

    I got a theory ... the first times you are in the event the higher the rate to get a rare mask ... this is for you to play more events

  • @qhynie
    @qhynie4 ай бұрын

    Fasnacht needs a purveyor like murmph. Trade in crap masks for a random rare mask or event completion tickets sorta like overseer tickets to prevent hoarding and keep people playing. Just based on the size of loot pools, complete like ten events > trade in those tickets for a random rare mask > still a low chances of being exactly what you want but you're getting something for your effort; this current system is garbage. Imma probably walk away from this years without a rare mask, with almost 35 events/HOURS under my belt so far (sorry Bethesda I work and dont wanna burn up my xbox). Considering how so called community driven/celebrated fasnacht is, people end these weeks feeling burned out and left out. I've literally only had regular sbq and regular honey bee masks drop from new stuff. I had to buy reg blue devil, reg scorchbeast and 2 of the new plans from player vendors. All I want from fasnacht is a glowing sbq and glowing honey bee dammit. Also why wouldn't wastelanders check out this crazy robot parade, at least settlers and maybe raiders. How about revamping the actual event thats not been touched since it launched 5 YEARS ago. I like Helvetia all peaceful without the scorched, maybe add npc's to talk to even if its just easy rudimentary quests/dialogue and limited to just Fasnachts weeks.

  • @faze_blaze7151

    @faze_blaze7151

    20 сағат бұрын

    @@qhynie I completely agree because if your unluck for say (me) I feel as if players who are doing the work and running the event are getting trash while I see people plastering all over fb are like wow got so many glowing while just afking.Which is werid saying I feel as if doing something in the event should impact your loot but at this point im just rambling lol.I feel as if though if they did trade like trade an amount of the normal version of the mask to get the glowing variation would be cool or just straight up as you said trade a certain amount of common or uncommon mask to get a rare mask!

  • @pixelwalker4964
    @pixelwalker49643 күн бұрын

    I have insomnia, I dont sleep much at all. Ive missed a total of 16hrs of the event, Ive gotten no glowing mask.

  • @lyricboss115
    @lyricboss1154 ай бұрын

    you’re pretty good with numbers I need you when I do my taxes 😂

  • @Gamer_Aviator

    @Gamer_Aviator

    4 ай бұрын

    😆

  • @takewhataway
    @takewhataway4 ай бұрын

    Thank you for doing this "research". Anyone with basic statistic knowledge wouldve known already about the chances and how the game works, but you're helping more people understand (and it's not gonna do much if you're AFK-ing). It also makes me feel better for not wanting to do AFK while working or sleeping lol goes both ways. All of the tinfoil theories are wrong of course, but the issue that never being mentioned when we focus on AFK is when only a handful of active players are around vs LOTS of AFK, and then the enemy spawn increased, and there's a chance one robot will die, hence ruining the statistic of getting the rare mask. Ive been in that situation and if I didnt have friendly fire, I know for sure at least one robot would die.

  • @Gamer_Aviator

    @Gamer_Aviator

    4 ай бұрын

    Yes, indeed. When it comes to AFKers outnumbering the players, simply bounce to a different server untill you get a better one. The one only with AFKers will fail and they'll move too. -NP

  • @takewhataway

    @takewhataway

    4 ай бұрын

    Easy to say. But by the time I found out Im failing the fasnacht I'm in, that's one chance ruined because of the AFKers. Ofc its easy to say "I'm gonna sit here, you go and find a different server" ☺lovely. But anyway. it is what it is. @@Gamer_Aviator

  • @Lordoftheapes79
    @Lordoftheapes794 ай бұрын

    Something you didn't cover is how the percentages shift toward common masks as robots get destroyed. These numbers are based on a perfect completion, tho it's rare to lose robots, it's still a factor.

  • @Gamer_Aviator

    @Gamer_Aviator

    4 ай бұрын

    That's a very good point. We just haven't ever experienced robots being lost yet, but you are correct, if any get killed during the march the loot quality drops.

  • @Lordoftheapes79

    @Lordoftheapes79

    4 ай бұрын

    @@Gamer_Aviator this is why the uncommon pool actually has the biggest number on your equation. I lost 4/5 in one event due to glowing wolves and no one healing. I didn't get a mask from that one, but it looks like plans are still rewarded.

  • @pr0f3ta_yt
    @pr0f3ta_yt4 ай бұрын

    I afk the WHOLE event. Using a old PS4 and a fan for cooling. I took off the plastic body of the ps4. In the whole week and a half of the event I have gotten. 2 Glowing Blue Devil. 1 Loon. 1 Brahim. 2 crazy guys….

  • @Gamer_Aviator

    @Gamer_Aviator

    4 ай бұрын

    cool

  • @DumaVadamee109
    @DumaVadamee1094 ай бұрын

    To add onto this video, people should be looking at this events loot drop chance like a gacha game or like destiny/borderlands. The reason these drop chanced don't change from anything you do is because the drop chance is tied to a systum randomizer. Gacha games a very similar because they host these shop sellers usually called banners that sell a particular character or weapon a a fixed, randomized percentage rate (and by law they have to publish those ratee to players). Many people have tried many methods to increase the drop rates, and swear up and down that their "rituals" do work, but in reality unless the game company changes the randomizer's code it won't change for anyone. Same thing for borderlands or destiny, you can spend months doing raids or bosses but because of their games randomizer code, they might never get the right weapon or roll of a weapon. The who reason they do this is to keep people playing their game. If a gamess too easy or loots too easy to get or can be duped, no one's going to be playing it after a year. If the games too harsh on difficulty or rewards people will strait up quit and never play it again. A randomizer is both a equalizer of luck and a unconscious stop sign to keep players from ruining the game themselves. So long as players have something to Chase, without feeling their being cheated, they are less likely to get upset about results and less likely to try to cheat th systum.

  • @MrLogan124
    @MrLogan1244 ай бұрын

    Does luck have any affect?

  • @Gamer_Aviator

    @Gamer_Aviator

    4 ай бұрын

    That's a really good question. Luck as in LUCK in your loadout. There's really no way of testing it. theoretically .... yes?.... but you'd have to run the event multiple times with the exact same variables to know for sure.

  • @vibrantdye

    @vibrantdye

    4 ай бұрын

    Not online. It's all based off odds.

  • @Hopalongtom

    @Hopalongtom

    4 ай бұрын

    Only your real life luck, the player stats make no difference on drops apart from weapon durability.

  • @Anigma1978
    @Anigma19784 ай бұрын

    The only glowing mask I've got was on a server where over 3/4 of the people in the event were afk. So the afk is false. Then I cycled through every mask I have, changing masks after each event and got 3 rares back to back to back, none glowing though. Then haven't gotten a rare since.

  • @danielbrogdon9192
    @danielbrogdon91924 ай бұрын

    The struggle is real

  • @temporary2834
    @temporary28344 ай бұрын

    This made me feel a bit lucky cause I've gotten the raven mask and the glowing SBQ mask so far, but I really want the old man winter PA helmet

  • @Gamer_Aviator

    @Gamer_Aviator

    4 ай бұрын

    Nice!

  • @user-un7ef5xp3i

    @user-un7ef5xp3i

    4 ай бұрын

    Finally got the helmet put it on my union armor and lost the set bonus. In the stash box it went

  • @nogardmarith
    @nogardmarith2 күн бұрын

    I so got the glowing scorch beast mask which I'm happy about. I've played the games pretty much from the beginning of the game and first 2 years running it never got a rare mask not until last year did I get all the Common masks.

  • @johnw8578
    @johnw85784 ай бұрын

    I have had bad luck for masks at every Fasnacht season...BUT, I have gotten some of my best legendary weapons from the event.

  • @systemerroar9465

    @systemerroar9465

    4 ай бұрын

    Yea seems they didnt bother to nerf legendaries rewards. Guess they thought to give somethin ppl in return cause geting rare mask is wild goose chace for now...

  • @nukacolanut6095
    @nukacolanut60954 ай бұрын

    Why not during Faschnat, have random ghouls or scorched around the wasteland wearing masks? More time playing...more exploring. Also, I've noticed that when Graham shows up during Faschnat, it causes the event to not start.

  • @Gamer_Aviator

    @Gamer_Aviator

    4 ай бұрын

    Yes! We saw him too. What's up with that?

  • @OfficialZomia
    @OfficialZomia16 сағат бұрын

    After like 3 days straight of trying for the mask i want i afk when i sleep and do it when im active

  • @SilverDashies
    @SilverDashies4 ай бұрын

    Glowing mask seem have like 1% of drop because I already got 4 rare mask but they not glowing ones

  • @Regu1arGuy
    @Regu1arGuy4 ай бұрын

    I ran Fas 105 times and received 3 rares total luckily one being a glowing. I got Buffon, Demon, Glowing Scorchbeast in that order. So in theory I should’ve received 2 more masks, however after speaking with several others that have done 100 plus I’ve found similar results. It could just be a dozen people with highly unlucky rng, couple that with the 0.33% chance to hit the rare you want and that’s a rough two weeks. Realistically the best thing to do is afk as much as possible just to try and put more numbers in the pool. I will say though all 3 rares I did receive was when I was actively playing and not AFK. Most likely another statistical anomaly.

  • @ScumsaveChris
    @ScumsaveChris4 ай бұрын

    We were on the same server today. I was on my way and someone nuked it. Around 3pm Central time. Yesterday I work nights so today is my weds still.

  • @Gamer_Aviator

    @Gamer_Aviator

    4 ай бұрын

    cool!

  • @ZuulGatekeeper
    @ZuulGatekeeper4 ай бұрын

    Very happy, it was a long grind must have done over 180 events the last two weeks. My rare haul from 2024's masks 1x glow scortchqueen, 1X glow scorch beast, 1 x glow Bee & from 2019's masks 1x Loon, 2 x Raven, 2 x Hag, 2x father winter & 2 x Buffoon.

  • @CeruleanTalon1
    @CeruleanTalon14 ай бұрын

    I've run it 84 times (no AFK) and still no rare masks. LOL A friend has run it 1/2 that many times and has 2 of them. Doesn't matter, I'm just enjoying the challenge of the potential.

  • @Gamer_Aviator

    @Gamer_Aviator

    4 ай бұрын

    yeah. Same here. :) -NP

  • @Vladolak
    @Vladolak4 ай бұрын

    Sadly, two weeks playing the event on Xbox for me and no rare mask :c

  • @BraveSirPaul
    @BraveSirPaul4 ай бұрын

    133 events run so far this year, and I have only managed to get three rare mask (two from previous years, and one glowing one from this year).... or a rare mask drop rate of 2.26% Fasnacht use to be a fun event that my group use to enjoy and looked forward to. We would plan to be on together and make a day of it in game from around the world - now it is a grind and heartbreak with untradeable plans that we cant share amongst ourselves to help those that missed out, or masks with such a low drop rate in bloated loot pools. At the moment (2023) with the masks we have 5 in the common tier 9 in the uncommon tier 15 in the rare tier Compare this to the original distribution in 2019 5 in the common tier 5 in the uncommon tier 1 in the rare tier So, I think BGS need to rework the event to make it more rewarding and enjoyable - • Revamp the loot pools • Mask pools need to be reworked - the common tier should be say twice the size of the uncommon tier, and the uncommon tier twice (or larger) than the rare tier • Ongoing - move all (or some) rare masks from the previous year into the uncommon tier, and move all (or some) uncommom masks in the common tier to maintain the ratio between the tiers • Correct the tier drop rate, so to the 2019 rates, so that common dropped more frequently than uncommon, which was more common than rare. • Place a "lock out" on rewards to prevent duplication (especially the masks) until all rewards from each tier of rewards are obtained • Remove the "untradeable" flag from plans

  • @cecilpalmer9468
    @cecilpalmer94684 күн бұрын

    Ive been running Fasnacht pretty consistently for both times this year and have a grand total of... One rare mask. My lucj is abysmal-

  • @chuckcookus
    @chuckcookus4 ай бұрын

    I sold my deathclaw and winterman masks for $18K each and bought two mutation serum recipes so they're good for something.

  • @Gamer_Aviator

    @Gamer_Aviator

    4 ай бұрын

    Good deal!

  • @peterclarke7240

    @peterclarke7240

    4 ай бұрын

    I run an aristocrats build, so I'm giving masks away at this point, as I always have maxed caps 🤣

  • @zellodine4708
    @zellodine47084 ай бұрын

    Does you luck stat increase odds? It f****** should. Ive done 40ish and no rares.

  • @Gamer_Aviator

    @Gamer_Aviator

    4 ай бұрын

    Hehehe. Yes. It should, but I don’t think does, sadly. -NP

  • @DadGamerLife
    @DadGamerLife4 күн бұрын

    I have been afk'i g as much as I can and I only got 4 rare masks but all on Friday and 2 were glows that were back to back. Outside of Friday all my other masks have been common and uncommon. The RNG in this game is just a pain in B-hole

  • @RRRobertLazer
    @RRRobertLazer4 ай бұрын

    Wow i fucking love what youve done here

  • @Gamer_Aviator

    @Gamer_Aviator

    4 ай бұрын

    Thank you!

  • @nathanmurray5860
    @nathanmurray58604 ай бұрын

    The fasnacht event makes the servers run slower.

  • @Gamer_Aviator

    @Gamer_Aviator

    4 ай бұрын

    yes it does, especially when the servers are full. - NP

  • @Steve-go6oq
    @Steve-go6oq4 ай бұрын

    My son and i have played when we can. Between us we've gotten : Winter Man, Winterman Helmet, Loon, Deathclaw and glowing Blue Devil. Can't complain.

  • @Gamer_Aviator

    @Gamer_Aviator

    4 ай бұрын

    Nice haul! -oskapt

  • @darkstar6923
    @darkstar69234 ай бұрын

    The odds sound right. I have mostly received more uncommon masks than anything else.

  • @Gamer_Aviator

    @Gamer_Aviator

    4 ай бұрын

    cool

  • @ScumsaveChris
    @ScumsaveChris4 ай бұрын

    I swear I saw the person on top of the church yesterday morning when I go home from Work. I can’t even afk my controller keeps disconnecting.

  • @blckspector
    @blckspector4 ай бұрын

    I have done waaaaaay more then 20 and have not received not 1

  • @Gamer_Aviator
    @Gamer_Aviator4 ай бұрын

    If after watching this you should wish to AFK, here's how: kzread.info/dash/bejne/h3VoxseraMTQZqg.html

  • @fnusecurity5112

    @fnusecurity5112

    4 ай бұрын

    Question. Does everyone running that one event. Get the same Rewards? Like if I get the Scorch queen mask. Does that mean the other 15 people get the same Mask?

  • @Gamer_Aviator

    @Gamer_Aviator

    4 ай бұрын

    @@fnusecurity5112 The odds are the same for every single participant. The drops for other players don't affect your results. Theoretically, every single participant can get the same mask, but the odds of THAT are astronomically small. - NP

  • @fnusecurity5112

    @fnusecurity5112

    4 ай бұрын

    @@Gamer_Aviator OK.

  • @christopherzertuche1904
    @christopherzertuche19044 ай бұрын

    The only rare mask I’ve been able to snag so far is the Glowing Blue Devil mask

  • @binghamtonblows
    @binghamtonblows4 ай бұрын

    I have legitimately played 8 times a day or so and not even sniffed a rare mask

  • @lonesnip3rwolf
    @lonesnip3rwolf2 күн бұрын

    Ive done it well over 100 times so far using my character and afking my fiancees character and still no glowing mask or even just a rare mask. Either i have the worlds worst luck or the drop rates are insanely low!

  • @Gamer_Aviator
    @Gamer_Aviator4 ай бұрын

    Thanks for watching. Please remember to 👍and subscribe to the channel.

  • @EZEfallout
    @EZEfallout4 ай бұрын

    Never tell me the odds! Good luck everyone!

  • @DarkPhoenix87
    @DarkPhoenix874 ай бұрын

    In the first few days I got 3 glowing masks. Since then, I only get the usual masks like soldier, witch, giant.

  • @ThePowerlesscheese
    @ThePowerlesscheese4 ай бұрын

    at this point ill just buy the glowing scorchbeast and honey bee masks from the first person that sells them to me

  • @Gamer_Aviator

    @Gamer_Aviator

    4 ай бұрын

    hahaha. Well, there's "rare" and there's "barely attainable." Bethesda made these rare masks nearly impossible to get.

  • @rjyoung1968
    @rjyoung19686 күн бұрын

    I fall outside the stats - not one Rare drop to date and have been doing it religiously when Im on

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