Ep. 129 - Hit Probability

Ойын-сауық

On this episode, Seth is joined by Jayden for another episode of Quinlan's Corner. This show dissects the five contributing factors as to why a bullet goes where it goes in a long range shot. The guys discuss how the variables at play can compound each other. By knowing and understanding the five factors, the shooter can start to establish their hit probability for a given target. The foundation has been laid for this with episodes 29, 31, 34, 44, 50, 52, and 57. We hope you enjoy this highly educational episode.

Пікірлер: 93

  • @grantharris1748
    @grantharris1748Ай бұрын

    “You’re groups are too small” should be on the shirt for sure

  • @kenbrown873

    @kenbrown873

    Ай бұрын

    I would buy a couple of them for Hornaday haters I know.

  • @gost166

    @gost166

    Ай бұрын

    And on the back should be "Your groups are still too small

  • @cmckulka

    @cmckulka

    3 күн бұрын

    @@gost166I would buy this shirt!

  • @Dad_with-boys
    @Dad_with-boysАй бұрын

    This episode finally gets around to what I have argued and discussed with people for years. The accumulation of all the “stuff” that affects the path of the projectile! It would be awesome if that “Hit Probability” could be an add on in 4DOF with the group analysis feature; determine your cone of fire, distance, add target size and it could give a percentage of hit probability!?!? Anyone else like that idea?

  • @ronlowney4700

    @ronlowney4700

    Ай бұрын

    🤷‍♂️ Because It is Still the Shooter Behind the Gun That Determines the Actual "Hit Outcome/ Success" (A Changing Variable That Can Also Be Measured), What About Tracking The Shooters Actual Outcome/Progress (Shooting Tendancies) and Comparing It to The "Theoretical Maximum Hit Probabilities"? This Would Help The Shooter Understand Their "Shooting Tendancies" and Where They Need To Improve! Is Their Problem Reading Wind or is "It" a Tendance to Flinch in a Certain Direction and What Does Their Gun Do On a Cold Bore Shot (Good Information For Hunting Purposes - Between a First and Second Shot)? 🤔

  • @Dad_with-boys

    @Dad_with-boys

    Ай бұрын

    @@ronlowney4700 that’s why it would be linked to a Group Analysis profile you created for your rifle, shoot it like you use it, Group Analysis the shots with “the nut behind the bolt” enter your ES and SD’s at a given temperature. The powder burn rate temperature sensitivity is already there. Give the distance and target size it and a good computer program will be able to give a theoretical hit probability. I know wind is a variable, good data in, good data out!

  • @justinrush6620
    @justinrush6620Ай бұрын

    Shirt idea: Seth's head (Bill Murray style) with the quote "the nut behind the bolt" 😅

  • @RMM--uv7uk
    @RMM--uv7ukАй бұрын

    I would definitely buy a Quinlan's Corner T-shirt and bumper sticker. 😂👍

  • @novicereloader
    @novicereloaderАй бұрын

    You guys should do "Quinlan's Corner" with a radar motif, "Miles Mode" with a rifle and a slide rule crossed like a coat of arms, "Slick Seth" with a guy shooting at a tornado and declaring "Wind? Never heard of her!", just to start. You could come up with a limited run for every employee you've had on the podcast and let them each pick their favorite charity from a Hornady-approved list to put proceeds toward.

  • @Jewlsterz
    @JewlsterzАй бұрын

    A "Your groups are too small" t-shirt with Quinlan's Corner(QC) and the Hornady logo ? Take my money. I want at least two and a couple ball caps too. You guys at Hornady are awesome

  • @kenbrown873
    @kenbrown873Ай бұрын

    I wish you would publish a article/white paper when you do a more technical matter, with some target results depicting in more detail on what you are doing and how you are doing the testing along with the results.

  • @markmiller9894
    @markmiller9894Ай бұрын

    "Smart drunk uncle," Quinlan's corner hats and shirts

  • @MrCclimeGo
    @MrCclimeGoАй бұрын

    I really appreciate everything about the Podcasts; and yes I prefer the technical information most. From what I have found; there is no other manufacturer, willing to provide the in depth content that you guys are providing. There are other resources available for further learning, but Hornady is doing the best job of showing a comprehensive investment in the community and of course their customers. And hell Yeah ‼️ The T-shirt, Hat, Decal idea is a winner 🏆

  • @rodgermunson3178
    @rodgermunson3178Ай бұрын

    I do think you guys give the best pod cast about fire arm and hunting, All involved

  • @DanielReyes-hz1qk
    @DanielReyes-hz1qkАй бұрын

    Yes for the Quinlan's Corner T-shirt! Hat too

  • @kenneider5317
    @kenneider5317Ай бұрын

    Yes, get the T-shirt!!! Got to include the glorious beard!!!

  • @hinkrakagaming5532

    @hinkrakagaming5532

    Ай бұрын

    The beard is glorious, yet the man himself doesn't want to be depicted on it so let's respect that!

  • @collinweiss4983
    @collinweiss4983Ай бұрын

    Shirt idea: example of dispersion and hit probability on target with calculated average radius….

  • @John-sl5iu

    @John-sl5iu

    Ай бұрын

    Better T-shirt idea “#InMilesWeTrust” with a mustache somewhere.

  • @Reloadingallday
    @ReloadingalldayАй бұрын

    Great podcast, Seth and Jayden!

  • @MikeStJohn-du5ue
    @MikeStJohn-du5ueАй бұрын

    Well, yes we need a t shirt!! Great show and always enjoy the podcast. I also love the ARC developement info.

  • @UncleDave-cm9ks
    @UncleDave-cm9ksАй бұрын

    I enjoy all the pod casts, but I especially like the episode on the topics of hit probability and dispersion. Have you ever considered compiling the information you cover into a book? Having heard about Jeff Siewert’s book Ammunition Demystified on your podcast I purchased it and have started reading, it’s very interesting. I feel a book from Hornady based on the 5 or 6 episodes on the above topic would be a great companion piece.

  • @gman4785
    @gman4785Ай бұрын

    Enjoyed meeting a bunch of you guys at the NRA convention

  • @briancheek-jx1hs
    @briancheek-jx1hsАй бұрын

    Yes, I would absolutely love to have a Quinlan‘s corner T-shirt and some stickers, especially team Hornady stickers don’t have many of those. This is the best podcast I have ever listened to you or watched. I hope y’all keep them coming. I’m a huge fan of the podcast and very loyal customer of Hornady, thank you so much Brian Cheek

  • @hornady

    @hornady

    Ай бұрын

    Noted!

  • @joearledge
    @joearledgeАй бұрын

    Quinlan's Corner T-shirt, but only is it has his face on it too. Doesn't have to be a photo, can be artistic like the Bill Murry shirt, but his face has to be on it in some capacity.

  • @user-rk5es3wk2s
    @user-rk5es3wk2sАй бұрын

    Really enjoy your podcast. Quinlan shirt would be great

  • @veteranironoutdoors8320
    @veteranironoutdoors8320Ай бұрын

    Could you guys do a podcast on shotgun reloading, and pattern testing? I’ve just gotten into that world and after patterning some of your buckshot (thanks for using nickel plated!) I immediately thought of asking you about how you guys go about loading your shells.

  • @MrCclimeGo
    @MrCclimeGoАй бұрын

    Here's one for you J. When I'm riding my sport bike at 50 mph, in a 10mph cross wind, I can sit straight up and not experience a great influence on flight path (center of the lane) "low velocity high drag, less variability"; as compared to let's say 150mph in the tucked riding position, where cross wind is much more impactful, "high velocity low drag greater variability" and if I increase velocity to 175mph, the influence of the cross wind is even more pronounced; and would certainly result in chaos if I tried to sit up straight (high drag) vs being tucked in. Does that make sense for an analogy? It's definitely something you can experience!

  • @user-uj5rx8nb9x
    @user-uj5rx8nb9x21 күн бұрын

    I really like the technical podcasts and appreciate Jayden's measured discussions backed up by a lot of lab work. Have learned more about the mechanics of rifle shooting since Episode 24 than in all of my experience. I understand his reluctance to be a public figure, but I really appreciate that he does these podcasts. I haven't been able to figure a way to calculate the effect of bullet drag variation on point of impact. Could Jayden provide some way to calculate it for other calibers like 308 Win? Thanks.

  • @UtilityBi11
    @UtilityBi11Ай бұрын

    I suggest, "In Quinlan, We Trust."

  • @onebadjack1313
    @onebadjack1313Ай бұрын

    T-shirt and hat would be awesome! I'd buy 2 of each

  • @bbdudeyt
    @bbdudeytАй бұрын

    Thank you Gentlemen! 2nd time thru this podcast and took as much notes as I could, and It all makes sense!! thank you for taking the time to do this, really sheds lights on "chasing your tail in the noise"!!

  • @hornady

    @hornady

    Ай бұрын

    Glad you enjoyed it!

  • @daveknowles3055
    @daveknowles3055Ай бұрын

    Make sure they're available in Canada and I am down for a hat/T-shirt.

  • @jameskirk3328
    @jameskirk3328Ай бұрын

    Yes, we need Quinlan's corner hats and shirts in the Hornady accessory catalog

  • @adamcrofts2717
    @adamcrofts2717Ай бұрын

    I’d totally wear a JQ approved shirt. Maybe with “I’m goin back to my cave on the back

  • @jeffprewitt7207
    @jeffprewitt7207Ай бұрын

    Agree with Quinlan T-shirt and cap.

  • @SMACK1978
    @SMACK1978Ай бұрын

    F$ck yeah Quinlan is the man!!!

  • @anthonyrstrawbridge
    @anthonyrstrawbridgeАй бұрын

    Always good to hear from these analytical minded shooters. Slightly off topic comment Random pattern size greater than a single hole whereas the pattern itself is not perfectly repeatable would constitute random error. Shot pattern scatter is beneficial in a shotgun load but rarely so in rifle and pistol shooting where the random error is difficult at best to correct. In a properly functioning firearm having an acceptable chamber and barrel bore; the cartridge and projectile will tilt about the center of gravity and will be offset from the bore centerline. Additionally, other mechanisms such as ejectors, extractors, and breech faces are additive in nature within many firearm designs and tolerances. The sum will equate too the total angle of the projectile in relation to bore centerline and likely will result in the exiting projectile having a cross velocity which in turn equates to a variability in both magnitude and direction. The initial projectile flight will begin with random variance relative to horizontal, vertical, or both thus resulting in the error dispersion. In many hunting rifle and cartridge designs the top priority is function. Conversely, in a laboratory type environment the priority may present with the goal of complete elimination of these variables ( Excellent capability to refine cartridges, bullets, loadings,etc.). Generally, most people will be somewhere between these extremes. As a pup I learned that precision match grade rifle actions are absolutely lousy in the field - the real world. The very quickly foul due to environmental and combustion conditions which tends to degrade the design (tight tolerances) itself. Where are you? 🤔

  • @andyjonathan2486
    @andyjonathan2486Ай бұрын

    T-Shirt idea: Front of the shirt: standard hornady logo on upper right Back of the shirt: Jayden’s head silhouette of just his baseball cap and beard. Caption: “QC”

  • @wyattgraham5711
    @wyattgraham5711Ай бұрын

    I have been thinking more of a natural dispersion donut, with the mean radius as the apex of the dispersion. The biggest thing I need to figure out too is what the sigma is of my dispersion. It would take a lot to figure out but could be cool to have.

  • @jwhodson
    @jwhodsonАй бұрын

    As a fellow person that likes to be in my cave i would put a quinlins corner decal on my car for sure.

  • @Dmounts
    @DmountsАй бұрын

    I’ll buy a shirt if y’all put it out. That would be awesome.

  • @The340king
    @The340kingАй бұрын

    Long time of flight reminds me of the time we were night firing the 8" Howitzers under illum rounds. We had approximately the same time of flight as the Mark Best Time for illumination. We called for the illum to be fired and seconds later fired the 8" high angle. About 15 seconds into the 65 second flight, we here the illum battery come on the radio and ask if we had traffic for that station. Pregnant pause from Hell followed by "did you fire?".........No. now we had 30 some seconds to ponder where our high angle shot was going to land! Luckily, there was another battery firing and their illum was good enough to see our splash. Talk about a pucker factor.

  • @thegriff9425
    @thegriff9425Ай бұрын

    Can Normandy please address why 4DOF will not load on my iPhone. I have contacted customer support and they have failed to get back. I'd like to use the app but it simply will not load.

  • @gavinbaker9697

    @gavinbaker9697

    Ай бұрын

    Same

  • @thecovlife3135
    @thecovlife3135Ай бұрын

    Love the content!

  • @Dungareeman
    @DungareemanАй бұрын

    Quintana corner with a pick of my drunk uncle at a professors podium or some type of character made up to represent Mr Q!

  • @TraditionalToolworks
    @TraditionalToolworksАй бұрын

    I was watching a podcast from Jan 25, 2024 and Seth had a silver yeti type cup and now at the end of May he's sporting a Hornady yeti style cup!👍

  • @onebadjack1313
    @onebadjack1313Ай бұрын

    Oh, a sticker too. I'm down for having that on my car

  • @TheGunNerd
    @TheGunNerdАй бұрын

    Id love a Quinlan's Corner shirt and possibly a hoodie too

  • @MrCclimeGo
    @MrCclimeGoАй бұрын

    I keep watching this one. It's awesome ‼️ 👍

  • @hornady

    @hornady

    Ай бұрын

    Glad you enjoy it!

  • @MrCclimeGo

    @MrCclimeGo

    Ай бұрын

    @@hornady The more I gather from you guys; I'm reminded of the adage, "I'd rather be lucky, than good any day"😂 I think Seth has even said it on a podcast 🤣🤙

  • @JosephBliss
    @JosephBlissАй бұрын

    I don't buy a ton of merch, but I would absolutely buy a Quinlan's Corner t-shirt, or even better a long sleeved hoodie sun shirt. I'll buy 2 if JQ's handsome, bearded face is on them. 😂

  • @joshjohnson1653
    @joshjohnson1653Ай бұрын

    I need a shirt with the beard on it! Or maybe a steve-o type shirt!

  • @JeffHenry-uo1nz
    @JeffHenry-uo1nzАй бұрын

    It's been a while since I read Mr. Siwert's book, so I will ask the question, is this what he referred to as Error Bugdet?

  • @jeffsiewert1258

    @jeffsiewert1258

    Ай бұрын

    Error budget is the components that go into determining the hit probability.

  • @zackogden716
    @zackogden716Ай бұрын

    Yeah I’d buy one of them t shirts.

  • @snprdog
    @snprdogАй бұрын

    Great podcast, listened to it twice...used the info at the last match.

  • @hornady

    @hornady

    Ай бұрын

    Great to hear!

  • @jeffsiewert1258
    @jeffsiewert1258Ай бұрын

    “Your groups are too small” with big beard & ball cap. Put me down for one.

  • @RichardArcher-qb2dt
    @RichardArcher-qb2dtАй бұрын

    Yes please for T-shirts 🙏

  • @johnl5974
    @johnl5974Ай бұрын

    excellent again

  • @hornady

    @hornady

    Ай бұрын

    Thank you! Cheers!

  • @JTEL1911
    @JTEL1911Ай бұрын

    Manson reamers wants some gear!!

  • @flounder870
    @flounder870Ай бұрын

    Please do an in depth analysis of loading SUBSONIC ammo. I have seen people using H100 to make Creedmoor Subsonic rounds and that feels unsafe in my mind.

  • @savagefury69
    @savagefury69Ай бұрын

    Please please go into detail on subsonic ammunition. I still don’t understand why it’s less accurate than supersonic rounds.

  • @cheyennechromy4830
    @cheyennechromy4830Ай бұрын

    My husband definitely would buy a shirt and sticker!

  • @hornady

    @hornady

    Ай бұрын

    Love that!

  • @eggbert191
    @eggbert191Ай бұрын

    Can you do a talk on the claims you can't shoot monolithic after shooting jacketed bullets? Makes no sense to me because they are both copper fouling. Why would mono bullets shoot worse after shooting jacketed lead?

  • @italian_badger1660

    @italian_badger1660

    Ай бұрын

    Hey mate, I load ssts and ttsx for my 308. I've noticed in my own rifle that after shooting cup and cores, my ttsx groups open up from .4-.5" to 1.5-2", unless I clean the bore. I believe it's to do with the gilding jacket of cup and cores being softer than the copper in monolithics.

  • @jackpearson7080
    @jackpearson7080Ай бұрын

    Question: does using different manufaturer cases , make a difference when loading the same load ?

  • @Kk-yt8bl
    @Kk-yt8blАй бұрын

    I recently started weighing my projectiles. I was having strange inconsistent grouping. I have found some bullets to have a .1 or .2 variance. The 178 eldx has some as low as 177.1 and high as 178.5. I used 2 separate scales. So if I shot once @ 177.1, next shot 178.5. At 300 yard plus this would create quite a ballistic change. My 212 eldx weighed within .1 gr for 25 projectiles. What is your spec and results in testing.

  • @codyway7424
    @codyway7424Ай бұрын

    I would like to see the results and standards of accuracy testing of your bullets. No top competitors that I am aware of in f-class shoot red box bullets.

  • @davidlaney8254
    @davidlaney8254Ай бұрын

    Is a Cliff Notes version of this video available?

  • @TheParkingLotGarage
    @TheParkingLotGarage5 күн бұрын

    My experience is 4DOF works well but stops working at ELR ranges.

  • @brassmonkeyidaho
    @brassmonkeyidahoАй бұрын

    Any chance you can reupload Episode 29: External Ballistics Part 1 to Spotify? 1-29 are missing. Thanks!

  • @hornady

    @hornady

    Ай бұрын

    Looking in to this issue

  • @hornady

    @hornady

    Ай бұрын

    Should have it fixed now

  • @brassmonkeyidaho

    @brassmonkeyidaho

    Ай бұрын

    @@hornady Yessir it's fixed. Going through the 7 episodes you listed for hit probability homework. I appreciate it, thanks.

  • @jaredstorrs4078
    @jaredstorrs407826 күн бұрын

    I could use some hornady swag

  • @hunterolson1162
    @hunterolson116218 күн бұрын

    I want a tee

  • @mastermoarman
    @mastermoarmanАй бұрын

    I want a t shirts 3x tall please.

  • @redrock425
    @redrock425Ай бұрын

    Easy answer, zero in a tunnel range 😉

  • @rosshill2565

    @rosshill2565

    Ай бұрын

    The closest one to me is about 400 miles. I think not. I have free shooting ranges one to 610 yards the other to 1200 plus (there are 1500 and 1800 yard targets for fun shooting). Yes, environmental factors are there, but usually early mornings in Northern Nevada. On a non stormy day, the wind is 5-6 mph or less and shooting is good.

  • @kbsurveyor
    @kbsurveyorАй бұрын

    Shirt sure, but a hat..........

  • @GavinM161
    @GavinM161Ай бұрын

    If you'll ship them to the UK I'd definitely go for a Quinlan's Corner T! And with all due respect, also love the "Smart drunk uncle" idea from @markmiller9894.

  • @colonelferringeyes9714
    @colonelferringeyes9714Ай бұрын

    29.25 WROOONG! The atmosphere doesn't "magnify" the sun or the moon when they're close to the horizon lol.... only in your minds eye young fella...

  • @robertjordan4755
    @robertjordan4755Ай бұрын

    Yes for the Quinlan's Corner T-shirt! Hat too

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