This is a hard one to get your head around, but when you do, it will totally change your approach to investing.

@grimgamerxd3817

2 жыл бұрын

Great video totally agree that the market is irrational but what stops people from profiting is the behavioural side

@mpr106

2 жыл бұрын

Thanks for the only investment advice on KZread I pay any attention to! Possible future video idea… Comparison between chucking 20K into your S&S ISA at the beginning of the tax year vs dribbling in over 12 months…

@johnjoyce2508

2 жыл бұрын

what is a good online stock investing app or website to use?

@RandomGuyOnYoutube601

12 күн бұрын

It is very easy to see that even if all knowledge could be publicly available and all investors were totally rational, it still doesn't lead to perfectly predictive market. If it would, then rational investors would see it and they would stop to spent time and resources to take advantage of the market. And that would compromise the price discovery process.

@RandomGuyOnYoutube601

12 күн бұрын

You also got the mean revesion wrong. If there is a man which starts his cointossing with 20 correct guesses, it doesn't mean he will revert to average by having next 20 guesses wrong. It just means that in the next 100 tosses he still has probability 50% and with more and more tosses he should on average get closer and closer to 50% (520 out of 1020 is closer to 50% then 70 out of 120).

Great video. Really enjoy your insight.

I've watched Professor Eugene Fama talking about markets eficiency. It was a fascinating mind bender. You Sir explained this concept much much easier.Thank you and bravo.

It really worked for me after I look and try some tutorials, yours is the one that worked. Owe you a lot.

Great vid. Thanks

@user-oj9sk6gt1r

2 жыл бұрын

Thanks for watching Hit me up there ☝️☝️ There are profitable nods and patterns I'd love to show you 🚀🚀🚀🚀🎉

Phenomenal content that is free. Many thanks James

@JamesShack

2 жыл бұрын

You’re welcome!

Love it. Great insights into into what we need to accept

@JamesShack

2 жыл бұрын

Glad you enjoyed it!

Hi James, this was a pretty impressive video, especially with respect to the clear distillation of what can be a quite technical literature on economics and finance.

@JamesShack

2 жыл бұрын

Thank you very much for the kind comment!

Thanks for another of your great vids, James 👍

@JamesShack

2 жыл бұрын

My pleasure!

Very rational, thank you

Wow dude. This video is fire! Good job. Very interesting.

@JamesShack

2 жыл бұрын

Glad you enjoyed it!

Great video as always James, you ought to have a lot more subscribers.

@user-oj9sk6gt1r

2 жыл бұрын

Thanks.,,,,,,,,,, for watching DM me up Less talk more on to invest or trade on Bitcoin

Great video - very rational analysis! I am reading the random walk book by Burton Malkiel at the moment and I am thoroughly enjoying it.

This is like revision for my financial management ACA exam 😂

Another great video. Lots more to the markets which go against market efficiency. We have seen how much social media and fashion stocks can be impacted (Twitter, Tesla, Gamestop) from a comment or two and you can see in your example how Twitter moved a LOT over the few days of Elon's announcement and didn't really settle (even though you put a line to at a point to show the %!). Government decisions can impact certain sectors (defence, health). Not all information is particular public (private equity). People also have different beliefs and so will not want to invest in certain sectors, which can surely also lead to market inefficiency as they are being excluded based on non-monetary factors, and vice-versa.

Your videos always have a unique twist and and amazing insights. Thanks!

@JamesShack

2 жыл бұрын

Thank you, I’m glad you enjoy them!

The psychology of investing is fascinating, great video many thanks !

Great work - one of the best explanations I have seen on efficient market hypothesis and how it applies to everyday investors. Clearly, efficient prices rely on active investors trying to exploit the inefficiencies, otherwise market wouldn’t be efficient. So the big guys do a valuable job in that regard, even if they can’t beat the market as a group (by definition). One point you didn’t mention was about the skewness of returns - in the twitter example to upside vs downside risks were not so exciting and fairly balanced, whereas for a value stock that you believe is ignored and undervalued, the upside may be much higher than downside, even if it’s a 50/50 on what happens. I guess that’s part of the independent risk of the value factor.

Bedankt

@JamesShack

2 жыл бұрын

Wow, thank you Michael! You're actually the very first person to every give me a Super Thanks! It really does mean a lot, thank you again!

Been buying as much as possible in this dip. Buy low, sell high…always

Great video James. I love your channel

@JamesShack

2 жыл бұрын

Thank you!

Brilliant and so interesting.

@JamesShack

2 жыл бұрын

Thank you!

Hi James, great video as always! I don't suppose you could do a video explaining the electric car tax trap that the telegraph have written an article about on the 23/07/2022? My dad has a defined benefit pension and is concerned he could loose out on £10's thousands of pounds. Might be a good opportunity to raise awareness of this issue. Thanks in advance

James could you do a review of best etfs and index funds currently available to invest in via Vanguard or Invest Engine. I'm interested in international regions excluding USA which I already own

Nice!!!!!!

Nailed iy

Seems straight forward to me; the current price reflects both the now and an estimate for the future price which is why investing is a life time journey, is my own notion about such things.

thanks for your brilliant insights James! what are your thoughts on vanguards life strategy funds? still worth investing?

@JamesShack

2 жыл бұрын

Lifestrategy funds are a very useful way to get access to a globally diversified portfolio that suits your level of risk. They're super simple. Whether now is a good time to invest in general? Well that's answered in this video!

Your videos are good in dark setting so that focus is on content

Incredible video as always James, I can tell such work goes into these. I think there are a few exceptions to what you've said though, specifically GameStop during the short squeeze, the price during that time had no correlation to the information available! Or what are your thoughts?

@NateDogg8870

2 жыл бұрын

That was technically trading (momentum) not really investing. The people who hiked up the price also benefitted from cornering the market through communicating within Reddit. Most importantly they knew the hedge funds involved had gone short. Nonetheless I get your point.

@JamesShack

2 жыл бұрын

My opinion is that markets are irrational at times. But we’re not able to consistently predict when it’s being irrational and profit from it. However, inefficiencies are more common where markets have poor liquidity, preventing price discovery and allowing market abuse. GameStop was an example of this and you often see it in other small cap stocks or in commodity markets like silver. Where there is poor liquidity individuals can manipulate the market.

how about the value investing?

I’ve beat the market consistently since investing for near enough 5 years. All in with Tesla. I have a high level of confidence that I’ll be multi-millionaire and retired before 45, I turned 40 earlier this week.

Random Walk is one old book that’s easy to make sense of… unlike The Intelligence Investor which (imo) is heavy going…. 🧐

The price of company stocks used to reflect the expected performance of companies. Now all markets seem to just follow each other. Frequently we see individual company stocks moving contrary to their performance.

@JamesShack

2 жыл бұрын

That’s because macroeconomics affects companies in similar ways. Now with globalisation, countries are much more correlated with each other too. However, markets have actually become more efficient over time.

Very similar to Betfair exchange!!!!! I’m following the next prime minister on there (I don’t have an account just following)

Hi James, I wanted to ask your thoughts on seeking out a fund manager. I have come into a lump sum of near on £100k. I am aware that the vast majority of fund managers fail to beat the market. But I also am very impulsive. I cannot quite call it risk tolerance, but sometimes I carried away and other times, quite the opposite. They say a little knowledge is a bad thing. And as much as I can write here claiming "it is time in the market, not timing the market", I do not trust myself in all honesty. Is it worth seeking professionals to manage my funds. And what would an average investment firm in london charge? I would be very keen to hear your response. Just to warn, I will post this same message on a couple of your more recent videos with the hope it catches your eyeballs. Thanks.

Excellent as always, good sir :) I have held back from putting more into my portfolio for six months given the present instabilities in the world (and the threat that Klaus Schwab will steal all my stocks :)). You have persuaded me to re-engage …

Having left the world of corporate pensions 5 years ago to swim among the shark infested world of SIPP 's I have to say your "advice" should be followed by each and every individual investor. You work with link is for you direct or the company?

@JamesShack

2 жыл бұрын

I'm glad you enjoyed the video. I'm a partner at Octopus wealth, so it's for working with me but through my company.

The stock market isn't easy especially for lazy investors. Anyone can make money from stocks if they do their own research. No one buys a house that's about to collapse (damaged property), so why should you buy a stock without checking the company first; how's the debt situation, how's the cash flow situation, how's the stock price compared to rivals, what's the financial outlook going forward. It takes a few minutes to do the checks. So don't rush it, do you checks, prepare your strategy and wait for the right time (when the price is right). Remember every stock behave differently. Good luck everyone.

@UK-nl4np

2 жыл бұрын

Or just buy a index fund, instead of trying to buy one stock why not just buy the whole market

I knew it wouldn't go through, I just knew Elon will not buy Twitter.

9:35 No - this misunderstands probability. The reversion to mean does not 'undo' the previous 10 head by having a slightly higher proportion of tails going forward. In coin tossing, the history is truly irrelevant. And - going forward - there is a 50%/50% chance of there being more or fewer tails over any number of tosses.

long sun block bro

Elon used twitter as a cover to sell Tesla equity.

Congrats, you just described the efficient market hypothesis. Something literally every finance graduate in the world knows.

@JamesShack

2 жыл бұрын

And now you don’t need to be a finance graduate to know what it is either. Thank god for KZread!

@TheUndulyNoted

2 жыл бұрын

@@JamesShack point being your clickbait title doesnt even include the words "efficient market hypothesis"

@JamesShack

2 жыл бұрын

​@@TheUndulyNoted If the title was "Elon musk helps explains the efficient market hypothesis" it would only attract people that already know what that is. Therefore I need to think of titles and thumbnails that will attract a winder audience to teach them new things.

@TheUndulyNoted

2 жыл бұрын

@@JamesShack EMH isn't "predicting the future" it's just pricing in perceived probability of each outcome

Keep out the sun... You are burning!

@JamesShack

2 жыл бұрын

I am indeed, well spotted!

I'll pass on Elon Musk, thanks. If something's worth knowing, I can learn it from someone who's not a jerk.

@___Truth___

2 жыл бұрын

You’d hate Isaac Newton

@timelston4260

2 жыл бұрын

@@___Truth___ If he was a jerk full of himself, yes. I'd have preferred to learn Newtonian physics from someone else, no doubt.

@jam99

Жыл бұрын

@@___Truth___ 80% of what Musk does is purely PR to grab attention. He is a superb businessman and utterly full of BS. I was fairly certain he did not want to go through with buying Twitter. It was all just a show... again, just like all his tech delivery schedules.

@terryo5672

Ай бұрын

No best not, you should only associate with the low IQ contingent.