NOTE: As some commenters have pointed out, this video is a reupload: earlier this week, we briefly uploaded the same video, but mistakenly described Tusk as President instead of Prime Minister, so we decided to correct the video and re-release it today. PS: Some commenters have also complained about the fact that we didn't provide axes on the graph at 0:55. This is entirely fair, and we should've put axes on the graph, so apologies for that. For those interested, the original graph is here: twitter.com/RafalMundry/status/1716905927016919209/photo/1, and the y-axis should run from 280,000 up to 440,000. Hope that clears things up, and hope you nonetheless enjoy the video!

@Nostrama

5 ай бұрын

Nice

@mariokartpro7406

5 ай бұрын

nice

@user-zy1ec6zj5l

5 ай бұрын

1) You presented the family policy as if PiS only continued what PO started in 2007. That's a lie... 2) PO was actually the party contributing to the emigration from the country. But you don't mention that don't you?

@superyamky

5 ай бұрын

Yes, I was gonna watch it, but was gone

@fabiano2867

5 ай бұрын

HAHHAHAHAHHA

A big problem is housing. People arent gonna have kids if they cant afford a 2 or 3 bedroom house

@user-ds8rj2vc4v

5 ай бұрын

Exactly. This will resolve itself in time. It'll drive down the house prices, which will then make them more affordable and allow people to have more children etc. It'll naturally oscilate around a certain amount.

@golfbl

5 ай бұрын

This indeed, how can I consider bringing a child into this world if I cannot provide it with a stable home?

@sobhansarthak6000

5 ай бұрын

Yet poor people are the ones with more children.@@golfbl

@claudiaroedel1368

5 ай бұрын

Why would I bring children in a world that will be in a climate and economic catastrophe?

@fungo6631

5 ай бұрын

More like people today wanting the latest iPhone every time. But also the fact that people have children later in their life, so they might want more kids but can't make them. I remember Italian radio mentioned that being one of the key elements of low birth rates.

How am I supposed to even think about having children, when my salary is well above average, and still 60% of it goes to landlord in one of polish major cities. The main problem is cost of living crisis in Poland, and landlords expoiting us with no regulations

@fungo6631

5 ай бұрын

Simple, don't live in the fucking center or any major city. I get it that you're too lazy to get up early to commute, but you save a lot of money.

@malal4726

5 ай бұрын

if you don't mind, how much do you earn and where do you live?

@quandmeme9970

5 ай бұрын

over half of Poles live in single-family houses. In fact, the birth rate could be much higher. especially since grandparents could take care of the children. Every Pole is the smartest, and everyone was convinced by Western propaganda.

@Mollygan

5 ай бұрын

​@@fungo6631 The jobs (at leat the well paid ones) are mostly in major cities, why do you think people are leving rural areas. Even in the outskirts of the cities are not that much cheaper and you ad 3H+ to the commute.

@ElliBeenie

5 ай бұрын

@@fungo6631 in many places, that’s not even an option anymore unless you are willing to commute for 3+ hours every day, because prices have hiked in the surrounding areas of major cities. And this isn’t just about being lazy. I’d rather live in an overpriced or shared flat than lose so much of my precious free time everyday, just to save what would essentially be less than 200 bucks. Maybe if 3 home office days every week were to become a protected right, moving a few hours away from your workplace would become a viable option (for some jobs at least).

I could name a few factors: (1) housing is getting increasingly expensive while government housing policies have mostly helped... banks and developersa (2) daycare prices for little kids high as well (3) Massive movement from smaller towns and rural areas to the cities means being disconnected from older generation. My friend who has kids said that the aid from grandparents is invaluable, but those who have moved to a big city left their parents behing far away being on their own. You can't leave your gid with grandma and grandpa then. (4) if you break religiosity by generations you'll notice that younger people in Poland are already largely secularized and even atheistic, like their counterparts in the west

@LEFT4BASS

5 ай бұрын

Actually, statistics consistently show that people have fewer kids the wealthier they are.

@yaboye3791

5 ай бұрын

​@@MlodyPartyjniakThey ruled for 8 years and had every chance to fix it- they chose to steal and do fuck all besides that.

@lightfeather9953

5 ай бұрын

​@@user-ny5hn1wc6kthe exception that proves the rule. You can't use an extreme outlier as a gotcha

@mdl2427

5 ай бұрын

Even as a developer myself, I have a agree the insetive for help to buy seemed to help developers as much or more than buyers in my honest opinion. I think rent to buy would make a good scheme. Where you pay rent for say 3-5 years then 50% of the rent paid goes to become your deposit so you can likely buy the property as usually its the deposit which stops buying in the UK rather than mortgage ratios.

@ruekurei88

5 ай бұрын

4 is an entirely useless factor unless you're one of those extremist religious sorts that like to push the 'family needs religion angle'.

"Just look at this graph" I'd love to do anything but, it's unlabeled and doesn't start with a zero. When will you learn to make reliable and good graphs?

@Eltener123

5 ай бұрын

also doesn't even say which of the references (if any) the data is from. They'd fail GCSE coursework doing this let alone a degree

@ohflip2173

5 ай бұрын

Look in the description

@user-ds8rj2vc4v

5 ай бұрын

@@Eltener123 This is the problem with getting news from poorly educated children. Their presentation of data is atrocious, and the conclusions they draw from the data are even worse. But hey, at least they're sponosred by an environmentally friendly £70 razer blade...Talk about integrity.

Religiosity is a meaningless stat in poland, because people say they are catholic, but just don't actively practice that, and churches keep their numbers high artificially, since no one actually completes the paperwork to change their kept records. They just stop practicing and leave it at that. The churches are simply empty compared to what it was 10/20 years ago.

@ermin2248

5 ай бұрын

Depends on the region. In rural areas although religiousity also declined it is still strong

@TheLastCrankers

5 ай бұрын

@@ermin2248 Not always, and even if, the smaller, the less meaningful of a difference they make.

@Sanvone

5 ай бұрын

Church keep numbers high, because per church tax is based on number of people living within it's boundaries with exception of those that went through procedure of leaving the community. So this way by default the higher ups can tax more from every single church and problem is especially bad in rich neighbourhoods, where attendance is usually lower.

@krowaswieta7944

5 ай бұрын

​@@ermin2248 But only 27% of Poles participate in masses (around 60% 20 years ago). Actually i dont know anyone, who is deeply religious (i live in a fairly large city in western Poland though; the east of Poland is kinda different). And ye, the process of secularisation in Poland excels every year. You know, usual causes - pedo-priests and financial scams.

@cv990a4

5 ай бұрын

It's not meaningless, it just needs (like every stat) to be treated with caution. For instance, there are countries for which "Catholic" is a cultural or political identity, not necessarily a reflection of personal philosophy. Poland is one of them, because (among other things) "Catholic" was a way of reflecting an anti-Soviet/Communist patriotism. Similarly, in Ireland, "Catholic" was a way of identifying as anti-British or pro-Republican. So most Irish still identify as "Catholic" even though the country has become in many ways functionally atheist - voting to legalize abortion and same-sex marriage. The historic oppressor was Protestant, so of course, if you're a good Irish person, you want to be "Catholic". What it indicates is that to the extent you want to measure some kind of meaningful religiosity, you need to dig a bit deeper. You might ask how often they go to church, for example, or other questions designed to elicit whether religion is actually meaningful in their life, as opposed to an identity.

I feel like one thing nobody talks about is how more and more young people feel broken and feel like the world is just going to keep getting worst. Their mental health is at an all time low. They can barely function to provide for themselves and are losing drive to even keep themselves going. You can call them fragile snowflakes. But millions of them from all walks of life are in this rut. They are very aware they cant provide for themselves and are not qualified to add even more burdern to their stress and anxiety. We have to think of so many issues like the housing, money, but also the mindset. Its just sad how hopeless your society feels if millions and millions of people arent having kids.

@nightVibes777

5 ай бұрын

The thing is though, that for countries like Poland, the standards of living have never been better. Of course, there anti-abortion laws in our country, housing market is a bitch, but all in all, it is still a better realm then the one from the 90's. So what is causing this huge depression? Maybe we are getting hopeless, because we expect too much from the world and from ourselves, looking at the people in social media etc?

@MoDa87

5 ай бұрын

@@nightVibes777we are much better educated. That’s why. We actually now understand how bad things are. Especially in regards to the government’s not being able to address the big challenges in this world. They have no answers for the climate crisis and ecological disasters we are seeing. Are things better financially? Yes to a certain degree. But not where it matters the most. Housing.

@thestarvingonetso5627

5 ай бұрын

@@nightVibes777 Things are not really as good as one could expect and I'd totally lean towards the argument of mental health. I live in a certainly way more catholic family than something non-religious or left-leaning. Despite the will to keep the values and what not, this remains a pretty toxic environment to be in, with returning uproar because of what is going on in politics and allegedly what the LGBT does, but happens that there's a stress being caused on me because of even very bullshit stuff. For the expectations standpoint you're pretty correct, but first and foremost I'd rather look at what is being expected from us and not what we expect. The most prominent example is probably how I face work market here, where I went to work that is obviously not so well paid, so I also didn't expect WAY too much for finances. But then I also expected reasonable work conditions where I go basically. I currently work my 7th job and I got miserably disappointed every single time, be it either some shenanigans with the contract, odd organisation practices considering you shall not get a moment of rest when there's no job to do - do even something totally pointless instead of taking a moment of chill and recharge to have energy to perform better on next tasks that matter, or basically not to mess yourself up. Or now at my current job it's basically great disorganization, old machines falling apart, lack of equipment and many other little factors that the staff has to overcome and carry the entire burden on their backs. Now even if someone is to say "but I have it fine", again it's been 7 jobs for me now and I'm hearing similar from other people I talk to, so work market is a bitch and needs being worked on some way as well. And the awareness of the problems with education system and healthcare probably don't boost anything either. To sum this up, saying that all is fine and stuff has never been better is a pretty shallow point of view. Being able to buy products and services which temporarily make you happy by a quick dopamine influx basically does not mean the life is actually good and a convenient environment for having kids. I hope this comment helps anyone.

@d.b.2215

5 ай бұрын

​@@nightVibes777Maybe we're feeling hopeless because despite all of our achievements so far, the world really IS going to shit? Just looking at the natural environment and climate going out of whack alone can already give you existential angst, on top of an increasingly expensive and lonely life

@covfefe1787

5 ай бұрын

simple tax the childless more and erect a giant wall on the border to prevent people leaving ie the Berlin Wall. introduce mass government propaganda starting from a very young age promoting families to young people. Educate young people that having children is not a choice but a national collective obligation for the greater good. thats the only way it will work. do the exact opposite of the one child policy but instead force people to have children by taxing most of their income to make having children cheaper than not having children.

it's weird that even in the updated Prime Minister edition the Births vs Deaths graph still has an unlabeled vertical axis. Did the birth rate really plummet to down to 0?

@sownheard

5 ай бұрын

lying with graphs is extremely common

@orktv4673

5 ай бұрын

yeah wtf

@noidea2568

5 ай бұрын

They do at least comment on it in their pinned comment and provided a link to the original graph, but I thinknit should still have been fixed. Hope they will try to do better in their future videos.

@rizkyadiyanto7922

5 ай бұрын

​@@noidea2568how about just not lying with statistic?

@Bob_the_Jedi

5 ай бұрын

No scale on the y-axis and no labels for the line. Very poor.

For an average working person in the developed world, having kids is a major risk nowadays. Family ties have weakened, the economy isn’t doing so well either, healthy food is super expensive, wages are stagnant, housing prices are downright crazy, overall mental health is declining, divorce rates are high, and so on and so forth. So if anything goes wrong, if you divorce, if you get sick, etc. you’re screwed. if not now, then later (low pension). Also, higher education is now required for so many jobs, so lots of people are much older when they finally have a stable career and can afford and actually want to have kids (and thus are more likely to have fertility issues).

@evilds3261

5 ай бұрын

Will the lower pension issue truly exist when young generations replace those in power as they get older? Surely they will be able to see that things do not work and will be able to reform society or the systems we rely on. Perhaps schools will finally teach kids how to be financially responsible and how to pay their taxes instead of assuming the parents will teach them (not all parents are that involved or knowledgable).

@JanKowalski-vj9py

4 ай бұрын

People don't want to have children due to very dark future programmed by EU criminals and econ-nazi.

@faustinpippin9208

4 ай бұрын

"Also, higher education is now required for so many jobs, " I think you wanted to say "also, more papers that say you wasted time for school are required for many jobs that could be done by 16y old with 2 weeks of training"

We have Polish wages and European prices. Ain't nobody can afford a good house let alone bunch of annoying kids.

@krasavchik8714

4 ай бұрын

Key word is “annoying”. It’s not that they are annoying, it is that modern lifestyles have no benefits from having kids.

As someone who's visited numerous countries all of this is expected really. Developed and industrialized countries naturally begin to have low birth rates regardless of their governmental regime. As seen in Japan to Iran and most rich gulf states to practicall all of the western world and lots of Latin America. Since once people understand how kids are born and have measures to prevent them in addition to living in societies where children's are net positive anymore people tend to have as few as possible. Already in my small and very rural and behind country most people who are educated and work jobs and have proper living conditions have at most 2 maybe 3 children meanwhile people in rural areas can have upwards of 10+. I live in Rwanda FYI

@user-ds8rj2vc4v

5 ай бұрын

Yeah. It's not a fertility issue. It's a stabilisation of the population. If you don't try and prop it up through migration, then the population will naturally stabilise. This is a good thing. You don't need continuous population growth.

@kagnetix6674

5 ай бұрын

@user-ds8rj2vc4v well not necessarily. South Korea is proof, they don't have immigration and they have the lowest birth rate globally and it's expected to get even lower as cost of living rises and youth depression increases, as well as older population voting primarily to maintain high pensions and overpowering younger and smaller generations. This will be a challenging how to fix this crisis to fix the inevitable demographic decline

@isiahjean-baptiste434

5 ай бұрын

But Latin America isn't developed at all. They're getting old before they even have a chance to develop.

@kagnetix6674

5 ай бұрын

@isiahjean-baptiste434 Compare Latin America to Eastern Europe.. Then compare them to most of Sub-Saharan Africa they are developed lol. Developed does not indicate rich/wealthy only you live in industrialized or mostly societies. Hench why South Africa has the lowest in almost all of Sub-Saharan Africa

@isiahjean-baptiste434

5 ай бұрын

@@kagnetix6674 Latin America isn't industrialized. Developed should be referring to quality of life- including infrastructure, education, health care, safety, running water etc.

I visited Gdansk and Warsaw last year and saw a lot of young couples with children. By walking through the cities i had the impression that Poland might have one of the highest fertility rates in Europe. It's crazy how the statistics and the impression of what you see in polish cities as a tourist is so different.

@filtheski1509

5 ай бұрын

larger cities have significantly higher fertility rates than the rest of the country (the richer the area, the higher TFRs are)

@boarfaceswinejaw4516

5 ай бұрын

same in any other country. its just the natural result of people who have kids being move visible and active.

@robertchmielecki2580

5 ай бұрын

Yup, that's why you don't base science on anecdotal evidence.

@joblakelisbon

5 ай бұрын

If you look at native white birth rates Polands rates are the same as the UK, Germany and France. When you add Africans and Middle Easterners into the mix those other countries over take Poland. Poland still has a fertility rate that is miles above Italy and Spain. In addition to this Poles of working age in the UK and Germany are having children so are propping up those countries numbers istead of their own. This reporters analysis is atrocious. My guess he dislikes Poland because they are nationalists and are openly hostile to Islamic migration, two things which the soft British liberal mind cannot handle, living as they do in a mollycoddled and weak society.

@_phosphorus

5 ай бұрын

How do you know if these children were Polish?

As a parend of Child under 1 year in Poland let me explain. There are many reasons why people my Age don't want to have children now or ever. Housing crisis - who wants to star a family living i a 1 bedroom, renred appartment, not being able to afford better? Access to daycare/kindergarden - fees can be as high as minimum wage, and still often there are long waiting lists. Raising children is very expensive, and a lot of young adulds, who were raised in poverty of 90's and early 2000's, don't want to give up a relatively comfortable lifestyle earned only recently. Plus the demographic trends since II world war - there' simply far less young adults in this generation than 10 years ago - still echoing trementous losses during the war.

@TomaszWinnicki

5 ай бұрын

Do you listen to Sławomir Mentzen?

@pieczkatomasz

5 ай бұрын

​@@TomaszWinnickihell no. That's a moron.

@MoDa87

5 ай бұрын

This is the case all over the developed world. The biggest problem is that houses have become an investment vehicle. It’s where the older generations hold most of their savings and wealth. Often owning multiple properties.

@kajtekii4666

5 ай бұрын

​@@MoDa87 this

@mygraphicprocess365

5 ай бұрын

​@@CR-rm4iyduring communist times people at least knew they'll get a house after starting family. Their life felt stable tho less wealthy of cheap consumerism.

0:55 There is no Y axis here. Please don't do this. Are you really being honest with these numbers?

The video title is misleading. Poland's birth rate has recently collapsed, but that doesn't make it the worst demography in Europe. The birth rates in Germany and Italy collapsed nearly 50 years ago and the birthrate in Spain collapsed nearly 30 years ago, and Ukraine's demographic crisis was even worse and that was before the escalation of the war almost two years ago.

@senhox970

2 ай бұрын

Poland's birth rate collapsed more than 20 years ago, so not that recent.

@michakrynicki7299

2 ай бұрын

​@@senhox970more like 2020 other than before that it was minor loses and gains

Hello from Poland. We’re facing enormous housing crisis building up since early 90s. In a nutshell housing prices are on par with western Europe while salaries are just a fraction of western Europe. People often pay rent as high as 50% of their salary. There is no social housing, the left (Razem) that got into parliament has such minority in the new (mostly liberal) coalition they didn’t get any budget for social housing + the government doesn’t seem like regulating housing policies and rather stick to the status quo. That for the housing, another one is no parental friendly policies, like free childcare having insufficient vacancies and the paid services are unaffordable costing as much as 30% of your salary.

@inbb510

5 ай бұрын

The problem is if you cap house prices, you need to give citizens an alternative way of investing and growing their wealth for the long term. Houses are pretty much the bread and butter method for developed countries to do this.

@kbbk.studio

5 ай бұрын

Thats another issue: people that have savings don't have other options of securing their money and "invesing" in housing becomes an easy solution. But it's not their fault. The fault is on the government and big housing development corporations.

@MoDa87

5 ай бұрын

@@inbb510ETF and stocks etc. it’s just that in Europe we got told these are too risky. Housing should not be a way to build wealth. It should be a home. The problem is not it’s a pyramid scheme and because we have more and more old people who own houses and who dominate politics, the required policy changes will never be implemented.

@MoDa87

5 ай бұрын

@@Macristoexactly. Our governments are making politics for old people. It’s actually a problem if democracy. There should be a maximum voting age. So that when the policies don’t impact you anymore, your opinion does not matter. I think what ever age people retire they should stop voting.

@szyszak9

5 ай бұрын

The reality is that Poland is one of the top countries in Europe when it comes to the number of houses being built every year so not sure what you are trying to say, have a look at the statistics and you will see, the prices are the other thing but in many rich countries of Western Europe you also need to spend 50% of your salary on housing, in many capital cities even 100% if you dont want to share it with strangers.

On top of that, we have a massive housing crisis, it’s actually cheaper for Polish people to buy a nice apartment in Spain or Italy, than in Warsaw or Wrocław. Many young people live with their parents up till their 30's and even longer because the rent is too damn high. Another reason that caused our fertility rate to drop in 2020 was the anti-abortion bill that was passed. Many women claimed that this alone, has halted their decision on getting pregnant, due to the fear of not being able to get proper health care in case the pregnancy might be endangering to their lives.

@baha3alshamari152

5 ай бұрын

Houses are cheaper in Ukraine than anywhere else in Europe and it's just next to Poland

@Adrian-Sko

5 ай бұрын

@@baha3alshamari152 gee, I wonder why is that... 😒

@baha3alshamari152

5 ай бұрын

@@Adrian-Sko - Salaries are low so the labour needed for construction is cheaper - Land value is low - Taxes are low - Landlords and house owners are desperate to sell so you have more supply than demand Despite all of that they have the lowest birth rate in Europe and the highest emigration rate and the highest death rate compared to birth rate

@Adrian-Sko

5 ай бұрын

@@baha3alshamari152 dude maybe, and I don't know, but MAYBE... It's because they're in the middle of a fucking war right now? Or did you forget about that completely? I feel that it's a quite important factor.

@baha3alshamari152

5 ай бұрын

@@Adrian-Sko The war is fought in only 1 part (the east and southeast) but the rest of the country is intact and safe In fact you can visit regions of Cherkasy and Ivano Frankvisk and Vinitsyia and Zakarpathia and..... and you won't even notice the war or feel it

One reason, kids cost more and contribute less to parents well being than in the past.

@MoDa87

5 ай бұрын

Housing is the biggest issue. But no government in the world will address that. Because their voter base needs high property prices, as all their wealth is tide up in that.

From my perspective (I'm Polish), Polish religiosity works differently in our country. It has extremely strong social bonds, younger generations do as their parents and foremost their grandparents would, so on the outside thy show how religious they are like going to church every Sunday, praying publicly etc. But this is a facade and many of them only show off in front of their families and societies. Privately, they enjoy living in a developed country, having more money than their parents ever had and thus having less children. Catholicism in Poland is falling and the taboo is breaking.

@Jery7773

5 ай бұрын

Is there also the issue of the taboo around having children out of wedlock? The US and many western countries where it is not a taboo seem to have relatively higher birth rates

@MoDa87

5 ай бұрын

Are they really wealthier? What’s the home ownership rate for young polish people? The people I grew up with all are renters, while our parents all had bought houses by the time they were our age 35-40. I right now could never buy the flat I grew up in. It’s valued at a crazy amount. I will Inherit part of it one day. But it will be a while yet and obviously I rather have my mum around longer.

@MA-gu2up

5 ай бұрын

​@@Jery7773 Those countries have a lot of immigration, that will affect results And they are also better off economically, so young people have better ability to form families earlier(even if they don't, they have better ability).

@covfefe1787

5 ай бұрын

@@MA-gu2up immigration is not the solution because even in Africa fertility rates are plummeting heavily. by the end of the century even Africa will have below replacement fertility.

@gawelszczytkowski1991

5 ай бұрын

​@@MoDa87The same in Germany and so on...

They won't fix the fertility rate as long as old people will be able to influence young generations on the country. We are currently living through a generation war in Poland, older generations want to dictate (and they do coz there is more of them) the lifestyle and influence our thinking at the same time they fecked up the economy and housing market. Unfortunately for them it doesn't work, people refuse to follow their lead and one of the outcomes is low fertility rate where young refuse to have kids without their life secured first (house/good job/savings). TLDR; No stable well paid job, no house, no savings, no stability = no kids.

@prustk

5 ай бұрын

Exactly 800 zlotys won't fix lack of apartment or stable well paid job.

@Vid-rd2vv

5 ай бұрын

Agree, 100% same here in Croatia 😕

@gilgameschvonuruk4982

5 ай бұрын

Public housing is the responsibility of local governments. Young people in cities fucked their own housing markets, by voting for parties that are unable to do proper urban planning

@inbb510

5 ай бұрын

Except the older generations in Poland had anything but economic stability so economic arguments can't explain it alone. The older generations were more Catholic which has a huge emphasis on "going forth and multiplying" due to religious duties. That was what kept the birthrates up despite the huge economic challenges.

@quandmeme9970

5 ай бұрын

​@@prustkover half of Poles live in single-family houses. In fact, the birth rate could be much higher. especially since grandparents could take care of the children. Every Pole is the smartest, and everyone was convinced by Western propaganda.

Main reason is young people emigrating to UK, Ireland, Germany etc. after ZSRR fell, Polish babies were/are born there. Some of those people are coming back and buying luxurious mansions, but their kids stayed behind. Meanwhile housing is expensive (for Polish salary) so young people can't afford it. The monetary benefits are a) small b) who in their right mind would have children when they don't have a home in "hope" of getting some benefits afterwards? c) inflation eats those benefits at faster rate than their rise

Hello. I'm from Romania. Allmost the same thing here. Emigration and low fertility. Why? Well, when you see that the prices in your own country are close to those in the west but the salaries are 2,2 lower....you do not want to make kids or stay in the country! Simple. The rich make a very close profit like those in the west, but they pay slaries 2,2 smaller. And the government pretend does not know the cause. The press eats allot of dirt : average income per capita, bla bla bla. salaries talked in the press are not close to reality!

@vasek571

2 ай бұрын

Romania has one of the highest fertility rate in EU. 1.74 it´s pretty good.

One thing not mentioned, that i think is a big contributor to the massive fall of the fertility rate in last few years is the almost full abortion ban and many hospitals' poor treatment of women giving birth. Many people just decide to wait, emigrate or not have kids at all than being forced to carry unviable pregnancy to term and all the trauma that comes with it

Ah yeah, the graphs without a scale, super useful. You could make 0.01% drop in £ value look like a massive financial crash...

This is because of the housing crisis. Young people in Poland don't want to start families when they see how expensive renting/buying an apartment can be. No amount of money from benefits will change this. Only forbidding of purchasing multiple houses by predatory investors will do the trick. Yet no one is talking about this

@Har1ByWorld

5 ай бұрын

"Only forbidding of purchasing multiple houses by predatory investors will do the trick" XDDD

@baha3alshamari152

5 ай бұрын

In Kamyanske houses are 9000 $ with all services and infrastructures (water , sewage , electricity...) yet people there have low fertility rate

@MiSt3300

5 ай бұрын

​@@baha3alshamari152 are you talking about a city in Ukraine? How can you even compare this country to Poland. Wages and living standarts are much worse, and there is a bloody WAR going on in Ukraine, in case you haven't noticed. In a country such as Ukraine $9000 is already a very high amount of money, they earn on average 300-400 usd per month, compared to Poland where the average is around $1800 monthly

@MiSt3300

5 ай бұрын

@@Har1ByWorld what's so funny? Do you like houses to stand empty as someone's investment while people have to rent overpriced apartaments?

@baha3alshamari152

5 ай бұрын

@@MiSt3300 Not all of Ukraine is in war In fact most of Ukraine is safe and far from the frontline Also 9000 $ in Ukraine is like 54000 $ in Poland Imagine 54000 $ house that is only 20 minutes away from a big city where jobs and services are plentiful

Fertility rate is low in entire EU. In some countries it’s higher due to immigration from other places and cultures where they still have big families, but then the question is if this is solving fertility problem or perhaps creating one or few additional problems elsewhere?

I think you overlooked the massive abortion issue. PiS has basically banned abortion in 2020 not only for demand, but also when mother’s life is in danger and when the child has mortal genetic defects. As you can imagine, a lot of young Polish women aren’t keen on basically risking their lives to have a child.

@chrzescijanintanczy258

5 ай бұрын

@MlodyPartyjniak A kto posadził partyjną Przyłębską na tronie trybunału konstytucyjnego który zakazał aborcję?

@dariuszgaat5771

5 ай бұрын

Nie kłam, nikt nie zakazał aborcji, kiedy życie matki jest zagrożone.

Main reason is cost of living crisis but also a simple mindset change. We are the most religious country in Central Europe, and one of the poorest in the EU, yet we have one of the lowest fertility rates. A polling said that 40% of women aged 18-29 said they want to have kids now or in the future. Most said they want to have 2 kids however usually they have kids when they are in their late 30's, which makes it harder for them to have more kids.

@arpandas2243

5 ай бұрын

How is the Polish Media treating the new govt?? Have they changed their Allegiance

@Kalimdor199Menegroth

5 ай бұрын

@@arpandas2243 They are treating it well, since much of it subservient to EU interests and money. Of course they will not criticize or be skeptic of the people they are paid to support. Media in Poland has always been against PiS in vast majority.

@arpandas2243

5 ай бұрын

@@Kalimdor199Menegroth But they are being always accused of Pro PiS

@thewideawake1

5 ай бұрын

@@Kalimdor199Menegroth what about TVP?

@inbb510

5 ай бұрын

If only 40% want them, that means those who do want it must have on average 4 children or more to offset the lost births from people who didn't want them. Therefore you're fucked.

it's impressive that you've taken the time to figure out how to pronounce "złoty", especially considering your rather recent problems with pronouncing, for example, foreign names. good to see you grow in quality.

@JakubWasikiewicz

5 ай бұрын

Złoty doesnt have any phonemes that are too unusual to English. And it's short.

@kabyzdoch

5 ай бұрын

@@JakubWasikiewicz as short as it is, most of the people would've just said "zloty". even though that "ў" sound is present in english, it requires a bit of a research, a bit of effort, to actually find out, what's the difference between "l" and "ł". and they finally started making that effort. which, in my opinion, should be noticed and praised, to show authors that they're on the right path and that audience appreciates it.

@petitenoire

5 ай бұрын

I noticed that too while watching, well done! ❤

@Cubus-zapasowy

5 ай бұрын

@@JakubWasikiewicz They also mispronounce the name of Slovakia's Prime Minister Robert Fico as "Fiko". all the time. It's nothing new.

Wait a minute, Just about 3 weeks ago, you did a video saying that Italy had the lowest fertility rate in the EU. Now, you're saying that Poland has the lowest. Which is it?

@sunu84

5 ай бұрын

I also thought about it

@jurgbalt

5 ай бұрын

answer is - yes

@Bayard1503

5 ай бұрын

Who knows?? Most of Eastern Europe is in a crisis + Germany and Italy... who cares who's the worst if we're all going down a cliff?

@Osotogari1992

5 ай бұрын

problably new reports comes from Europenion Union. but not sure. Im from Poland so we are dying. Goodbye my friends

@jazznik2

5 ай бұрын

@@jurgbaltLol. So in 3 weeks I guess there'll be a 3rd country that they say has the lowest fertility rate.

Single women without children are on average the happiest group in society. That single sentence (if you ask me) makes fertility the single biggest challenge apart from climate change for us rn. We optimised our lives so much raising childer became a burden

The reason is that Law an Justice (PiS) is a party that specifically appeals to old people. Those child benefits are not enough to offset even the increased taxes PiS imposed on working population and those young people are absolutely aware of that - but the old people, who follow PiS religiously are either retired so it does not conecrn them, or are gaslit to such a degree that they believe they earn more despite it being obviously false. This causes a situation where child benefits are only truly benefiting unemployed parents. Most young people simply prefer to emigrate from Poland first and settle in a place with better pay before having children - and the fact that basically everyone below the age of 30 knows at least 2 languages helped with emigration enormously. If Tusk wants to solve demographic crisis, he has to focus on younger people with his policies, just like he did last time. The bad news is that it made him unpopular with the older voters.

@pritapp788

5 ай бұрын

Finally, a relevant observation. Societies that invest nearly all their effort and wealth towards the wellbeing of the elderly are not going to have thriving families and working age adults willing to have many children. It's the case in most of the world: most welfare spending is towards retirement pensions, and the cycle keeps worsening.

@kompatybilijny9348

5 ай бұрын

@@pritapp788 Bismarck really fucked us didn't he?

@Cubus-zapasowy

5 ай бұрын

@@pritapp788 More and more countries would put their effort to appease elderly voters and abondon young voters, because all of the developed countries are aging. Imagine trying to win an election, where over 50% of voters are over 60. It would be a reality soon.

@kompatybilijny9348

5 ай бұрын

@@Cubus-zapasowy The society will break down before that happens. Or the pensions will be completely removed to save at least the remnants of society.

Being a woman in PL, there are several things going on. For me personally, I'd like to have children, but I can't seem to find a boyfriend. I'm an introvert, I just never had one, and also watching my parents, I'm worried he'd be like my dad, who expects my mom to work full time AND still do everything around the house/children. This fear might be why I'm not looking for a partner urgently; I got a job and a hobby that's dear to me, I wouldn't just resign from it to become a homemaker. If I can't find a guy who'd share the house workload, I'll just stay single and childless. So will all those incels who complain about how "women should stay obedient and do housework." Guess both mine and their genes just won't get passed; meanwhile my male colleagues who have children are often super involved in taking care of them, e.g. they'll take free days if they get sick, they'll resign from job-related travel so their wife doesn't have to stay alone with the kids etc. Clearly the guys who want to get involved in housework and homemaking somehow manage to have children, I wonder why. In general, however, I think the issue is often that people are only just getting a taste for "good life" as adults and they don't want to resign from it by having children. E.g. one of my friends had to live her entire life in one room with her younger brother. She just wants to have her own room for a while. Ideally, she also wants her children (which she would also like to have in this general sense like me) to each have their own room, too. But that's just not viable in the current housing market; she's finding it impossible to move out from her parents' apartment at all, while working a "normal" job. In general, if you're not some sort of super sought-out specialist - programmer, doctor, etc - you'd have to sacrifice more than 50% of your earning just to rent something. There's not even a way to buy something. Meanwhile rich people can afford multiple large flats and many more just keep empty flats as "money security" and what not. And they perhaps have children, but not like super many children - often 2. So of course the birth rate in general is low.

@goranisacson2502

5 ай бұрын

Swedish person here, and one thing that made me curious in your reply was the story of your friend who grew up with one room for her and her sibling and now wants to live a good, economically independent life. Is this a common story for many Poles, that you have gone from relatively poor childhoods to earning more during adulthood than, say, your parents did at the time? I ask because I'm not sure if standards have generally risen very high in Poland during the last 30 or so years, as Sweden at least has mostly gone slightly down (relatively, due to a far larger population with a far less wealth equality), so the general mood up here is that things are just kind of moving along with vaguely negative changes. Whereas with you, it sounds like people's standards have gone up, and now people aren't really in a hurry to go through with something that will be very costly.

@savioblanc

5 ай бұрын

I'm all for your friend choosing the lifestyle she wants and for you as well refusing to have any children, if it means the husband refusing any housework. Alas, the Endgame though is civilizational collapse - hopefully not in your time but very likely so. It's ok though. You will be replaced with a more fertile populace, until they do fall for the very same reason in another time period. So the cycle goes.

@arthurrimbaud-ix5tr

5 ай бұрын

@@goranisacson2502 It's common saying at least. 90s were shit, 80s even worse (but more stable - no one had to be hungry). Many people with really great higher degrees went simply to Sweden to pick up strawberries etc just to send money for families. I'd say the biggest grow of living conditions happened post 2008. So it was bad but not even close as bad as in Russia.

@silence.4063

5 ай бұрын

@@goranisacson2502 can't speak for most Poles but my story was more or less exactly like you described. For the first 10 years of my life (I was born in 1999) I shared ONE room with THREE of my siblings, and in 2008 another sibling came along, making it four. In 2009 we moved to a bigger apartment but I still had to share a room with my two brothers. Both my older sisters got eventually married and moved out, but that was just around the time I was about to graduate from high school, when I finally got my own room. Needless to say, I found a decent paying job right after graduating and moved out soon after that, because I wanted to become economically independent as soon as possible. My parents never had enough money for us all to live comfortably, and although we were not hungry, it was still rough. The rise in the standard of living I experienced after I moved out, was dramatic and I would never give up on it in order to have children. I would also fear that they would have to go through same things I had to go through as a child, so that's what's stopping me. A friend of mine who lives with her boyfriend also doesn't want to have children for similar reasons, but there also comes the rise in awareness of how many things can go wrong in early childhood development, like how much trauma a parent could induce in a child, if they don't take proper care etc. Overall, I think the standards have risen dramatically since the early 2000s, but again, the bar was low. Poland is obviously still not the same level as Sweden lol but I believe there's way more opportunities now, than there was before.

@KA-dj3no

5 ай бұрын

Tee GDP per capita has risen 300% between 1990 and now, which is second highest in the world, just after China. So you can imagine how much life has changed for the people that were born in the 80' or 90'.

I have a problem with this concept: " we need workers to sustain retired people ", because the productivity pet hour for a 3X every 5 decade, and still going. We keep product always more with less people. So, where goes this production?

@Wulfuswulferson

5 ай бұрын

Into the pockets of rich people

@rsantana389

5 ай бұрын

Company owners obviously

@johnsamuel1999

5 ай бұрын

Most productivity increases is thanks to improved operations, training and technology. So it mostly goes back to owners

@user-ds8rj2vc4v

5 ай бұрын

Their mindset is one that has no actual understanding of the situation. They seem to think that we need constant growth or at least completely stable population in order to maintain the current ageing population, which just isn't true. As you say, productivity has skyrocketed. And the wealth has funneled up into that retirement age population. They need to be spending more in taxes to fund the very benefits they're trying to claim. The older population milked the country dry of housing, healthcare and resources etc for decades without paying enough into it to cover themselves and are just hoping the younger generations will foot the bill. The problem is that they broke the whole system so bad that the bill can't be covered now. So how about instead we tax them and get them to cover their own costs. Things like free TV licensing. Why is it free for them? They get paid, they get pensions, let that cover it. Same for bus fare. Let them pay their own way for a change.

@netiturtle

5 ай бұрын

@@Wulfuswulferson amen, they eat like 9 meals for lunch and drive 12 cars during rush hour! And the 1% they they...they eat 239 cows, every morning! The very rich, which I assume you target and not middleclass, don't consume products anything near equivalent to their wealth.

Unless I'm mistaken - several months back you had a video lauding Poland's economy and how it was an emerging power in Europe. Mirage i guess given fertility.

@stekon9112

5 ай бұрын

No, all over the world if country is getrinf more developed, TFR drops. Does t metrer Europy, Asia or Africa.

@Adam6t

4 ай бұрын

hello from Poland! economy in Poland is in shambles. The previous video was a fake propaganda

Housing, housing and housing. No place to live = no fertility. It's THAT simple.

I thought it was italy

I'm Polish, 28 female and don't have kids. I would like to start a family, but I feel like something is broken in our society. I'm working part-time now (I used to have 2 jobs, one part-time, and one full-time, but the latter project has ended in Dec.), this is my first contract of employment ever even though I've been working since I was 19. I cannot count the times I've been scammed by my employers and they were never punished for that. Law enforcement for workers isn't really working. It makes you worry about your safety pretty constantly. I cannot get a house-loan, so I need to rely on renting. With every new rent agreement there's a raise. It grows faster than my salary even though I work in IT, so theoretically I should have it easy. I don't. So it adds to the feeling of not being safe. And above all there's a problem with human connection. Between men and women in Poland there is a HUGE gap. You can easily notice it even by coming here as a tourist. Men are getting more violent (even those with leftist views) and they seem not to understand their roles in society and in family-making processes. So it feels like both the macro- and micro environment is just hostile towards starting a normal, happy family.

@kubacentala3189

5 ай бұрын

What you mean by statement „men are getting more violent, and don’t understand roles in society, even those with leftist views”?

@gyozop

4 ай бұрын

Find a solution to have a family with children somehow. It is difficult and needs compromise and sacrifice, sometimes pain, but absolutely worth it. I am a Hungarian father of three, I am blessed. I have been planning everything in my life for this goal. I missed out on so many things, but I don't care, it is fantastic and the only thing that can motivate me in life. And I love Poland.

@michapiechowski1810

4 ай бұрын

Thanks for sharing. I find myself in a similar economic debacle, while also being from Poland. Out of curiosity: would you mind expanding on your experiences with men-woman relations in Poland? I'm curious about others' perspective on the matter

@kranuwa2441

4 ай бұрын

What do you mean by "they seem not to understand their roles in society and in family-making processes"? Asking just out of curiosity.

@JanKowalski-vj9py

4 ай бұрын

Women in Poland were equipped by far-right party "PiS" with very powerful legal tools that can be easely used against any man (violence complain) with no consequencies if the claim is false. This effectively made many women an "untouchables". What is written at the top of the thread is a perfect example of this trend. An IT woman is for men dangerous like a landmine so not strange she's alone.

It's very simple, just think about it; what did the pandemic cause that is one of most crucial matters when creating a family? It made prices of properties like houses and apartments skyrocket. Don't give out cash for kids that will leave the country anyway! Instead you should focus on giving them reasons to stay.

@MoDa87

5 ай бұрын

Yes very true. Direct payments don’t solve this. But creating an environment that helps people build a live can. For housing the first rule should be: no seconds until everyone had firsts. Meaning it becomes illegal to own a second home until everyone else had the chance at a first. Also houses should not be an investment. They should be a home. Now many people think this could be solved by cheap rents, but people don’t want to rent if they don’t have to. Why? Because when you rent it’s actually never your home. You can not do what you want with it. I want a garden, modify my house etc. In a rental I can not do that.

@faustinpippin9208

4 ай бұрын

the useless lockdown caused that and its by design "you will own nothin and be happy" enjoy your overprice shoebox aparments....

@faustinpippin9208

4 ай бұрын

@@MoDa87 "until everyone had firsts. Meaning it becomes illegal to own a second home until everyone else had the chance at a first." wtf, take your meds

people (women) just don’t want to have children, and I dont blame them. no such thing as a demographic crisis, just disinterest in having children.

As countries develop, the fertility rate plummets. This even applies to the developing world. They won't be able to reverse this. And it's even worse when you can leave the country for other richer countries in the EU.

the more conscious people, the fewer children

Great work

When housing costs 2.5 times what it should and over 30% of my earnings go to the government in taxes, even more when VAT is added to everything, then fuel duty tax, which I use to get to work, the sensible option is to have less children. Governments are historically very bad at doing anything financial. They will tax the working population more and compound the problem

Old people need to work longer. Simple as. I'm going to have to work till I'm 70+, might as well send the boomers back to work. They didn't do anything to obligate me to cover 20+ years of retirement for them.

The provided benefits pale in comparison to the burden of raising children. I don't see the fertility rate fixed without major changes economically and socially... one of the most complex problems of modern times...

@mephilees7866

5 ай бұрын

@user-ny5hn1wc6k I agree in the net positive of children being the deciding factor. By printing more money for more of a monthly salary, you would leave people not producing children to be more poor in relation. Hence, tackling the issue. returning to older economic family farm days. In which, having more children means producing more goods hence less poverty... but still, the social part is complicated...

@IhaveBigFeet

5 ай бұрын

I'm sorry but you can raise a child with 200 euros a month in Poland easily. That's enough for food, transport and school supplies. Contribute an extra 200 yourself for clothes and other things and its more than doable.

@IhaveBigFeet

5 ай бұрын

Because if you take God out of the picture our biggest evolutionary goal is to reproduce. Include God in the picture and our biggest evolutionary aim is to reproduce also.@@user-ny5hn1wc6k

@aar0n709

4 күн бұрын

People don’t just want to get by. Poles want to thrive they want to save and invest so they can retire. And hopefully pass something onto these children you want them to have

Please, always add values to the axis when showing a graph such as the one at the end of the introduction.

Real estate prices are still growing and government is helping in it. One of the good solution would be to subtract costs of real estate from income tax (let say you can cut 50% of your income tax and 50% of the real estate price). In Poland money from income tax are going to the city ( if current government will come back to this practice), so high real estate prices will cause lower gains for the cities so the cities will be motivated to do better city planning which is huge issue and they will free lands for developers which is huge issue because cities prefer to earn as much as they can from lands around the city(and they are not selling it).

It’s mainly old people who are religious in Poland now.

Raising fertility is pretty simple. Housing needs to be affordable, and the median wage of a 25 year old has to be able to support a family of five respectably, including holidays and such. That's what the parents of the Baby Boomers had. But of course both of these are impossible.

Your solution: we all know it, immigration, of course, God forbid promoting natality and helping people with housing to grow a family.

how is this even possible

we are still in the 2008 crisis & people cant afford children. make it easier to build apartments, cut red tape so it becomes easier for businesses and industry to exist, make education more focused and connected to business and industry so students can create social networks and remove central planing from education its just creates a lot of unnecessary bureaucracy and waste there is also no incentive to build new housing because of price control and too much regulation i think

@inbb510

5 ай бұрын

Ok but those EU housing regulations were made for environmental reasons (protecting wildlife), and protecting domestic farming. Housing and construction industry are some of the most polluting industries due to cement works and it being extremely resource intensive. If Europe deregulates the housing and construction industry, it would practically destroy their chances of ever honouring climate targets as offshoring those industries is essentially their entire strategy in the first place. Also if you know anything about the red tape behind the housing industry, cutting red tape would mean getting rid of quality checks, building on green belts and giving the public less say on what settlements are to be built. It's therefore easier said than done to just do away with red tape.

@boarfaceswinejaw4516

5 ай бұрын

"too much price control and regulation" begone, spawn of neoliberalism. the reason housing market got fucked in the first place is because people treated houses like investments as if they were bitcoin, rather than places where people should be allowed to live. the end result being that people spent a lot of money buying houses, and rather than lower the price to reach demand they just let the home sit there and rot whilst they wait for a buyer to buy the house for more than its worth. more houses is not going to solve an issue born from risk capitalists buying everything and then trying to sell it to people for more.

@netiturtle

5 ай бұрын

"cant afford children" seem logical but it goes against reality. Highest birthrates come from regions of the world where unemployed women sit in a single room house, surrounded by kids

@Cubus-zapasowy

5 ай бұрын

2008 crisis actually missed Poland. We didn't feel it at all.

@evilds3261

5 ай бұрын

@@netiturtle That's because reality is not logical, but logic can be reality, so reality varies depending on how logical people are. Why should society produce and raise children the government will only take for granted?

It's not about money. Lowest fertility is in upper-middle class and as Poland got richer more people are living comfortably... but few are so rich that having kids would not meaningfully cost them. Double the income today and it would depress fertility rates even more. Previous govt tried to incentivize births with cash but it made small difference, other countries in region also had this uptick in birth in this time frame without any payouts. Same goes for Hungary, with all the govt efforts they don't get any results. Maybe severe punitive tax rate on childless adults could make some difference, such harsh levy that you actually would be richer with a child for all the massive expenses this entails, but I don't think its even feasible. One big and completely unnecessary problem that was increased by previous govt is that they meddled with healthcare and abortion. Obviously less abortions are more births, but anyone who wants abortion can still go around this. Meanwhile it ruined the trust for maternity doctors. It's one thing to have a baby, and quite another to have a severely disabled baby, or be forced to carry out a pregnancy that is dangerous to you after doctors lie to you about risk and then lock you in the hospital. Even if this is rare instances, it was enough to ruin trust. The main problems are the same as everywhere else - modern urban lifestyle makes having children an elective project that will cost you a significant downgrade to your own quality of life. Even if in 10 or 15 years you will be happier with a family. The couples who would have kids usually push it back as far in time as possible, which makes economic sense, but then they may miss their window of opportunity or they end up with 1 child. For large percent of adults to still decide to have kids and have them in their 20s, we'd need some kind of pro-natalist culture, but we have the same Western individual hedonism as almost entire developed world.

@viktorialvov

5 ай бұрын

It ' not about money, exactly. And ban of abortion also played the role. I often tnink about this woman, who died in hospital while she needed medical abortion. How to believe doctors after this?

Me if I was in charge of demographics: “play Star Wars 2 music”, Me overlooking my new army of clones, “Magnificent aren’t they?”

There are 3 main reasons fot that and none of them was mentioned: 1) Housing crisis. Majority of young people can not afford a home. But that's nothing special, it's a global issue. 2) Anti-abortion laws - Previous gov. in the name of their ideology effectively banned abortion, what lead to actual deaths of women and police harassing people considering such action. That lead to the huge social unease and a feeling of insecurity. Who would want to have kids, if any unforeseen pregnancy issue could kill the mother? 3) Most of young male Poles are right-winged, conservative populists supporters, most of young female Poles are left-oriented. There is such a difference in ideology and general worldview that people just don't care as much about having a family, because it's hard to find a reliable life-long partner. And if you are not in top 10% of income, it is virtually impossible to have a comfortable life with a kind in tow with only one salary

@Cubus-zapasowy

5 ай бұрын

If abortion is the problem, then why Western Europe (where abortion is fully legal) has as bad fertility rate as Poland?

From my 1980's Uni Economics 2 class: 'Everywhere that the educational level and meaningful workforce participation of women increases, the number of children decreases.' The amount of freebee money Poland is giving away makes no difference in a professional women's life. It will not stop her from waiting until 30 to have that first child, if at all. That money would only encourage the poor or immigrants to have children. Is it even possible to convince & incentivize college (& trade school women) to get married and have kids during their early 20's? Or, will they fear missing out on wild partying & 'fun', and starting their careers? Is it 'cool' or 'fun' or 'socially responsible' for women to be mothers at the age of 22? The Polish, Japanese, Korean, & Canadian fertility rates will not rise until it is 'cool & easy' be monogamous + married with children at college or trade school.

@heartsofiron4ever

5 ай бұрын

The answer is not to force women out of the workforce, it's to raise salaries enough, so one person can feed an entire family.

@Adam6t

4 ай бұрын

@@heartsofiron4ever there are plenty of kids in Africa where women stay home. hmmm

@heartsofiron4ever

4 ай бұрын

@@Adam6t You want to live in Africa, with no clean water, food insecurity, and constant terrorism threats? Then you're more than free to go. The higher the infant mortality, the higher the birth rates, because many children will die before the age of 5

@Adam6t

4 ай бұрын

@@heartsofiron4everfood shortages . Living in a tent nad dirt everywhere yoy go. Is IT San Francisco?

@heartsofiron4ever

4 ай бұрын

@@Adam6t I'd rather live in a tent of San Franciso, then in Mali with the constant threat of ISIS kidnapping my children, and beheading my village

It’s just something that comes with development, even India, the very symbol of overpopulation, now has a fertility rate that is barely at replacement level, Bangladesh’s fertility level is even lower.

@heartsofiron4ever

5 ай бұрын

And it will keep falling

It beginning to look a lot like a series rn

Adding the price per square meter for new apartments in the center of Warsaw, well these are ridiculous where they already start now from 30k PLN per square meter.... If you would look further in the villages around Warsaw, you can easily buy a full house with decent garden for the same price. You just add commute time, although with working remotely that is no longer for 5 days a week.

they will start funding invitro again so hopefully that helps it at least a little bit

@grzegorzbrzeczyszczykiewic1139

5 ай бұрын

no it won't. It's a cool thing for some people (regardless of moral issues) but it won't solve the problem on national level. It's not that Poles can't physically make children, the problem is that they don't want to.

I wonder if any economist has ever worked out a means to keep a country's economy stable while having a reduced population growth? I ask because linking a country's standard of living directly to its population growth just seems like a losing proposition in the long run.

@stekon9112

5 ай бұрын

Korea and Japans economy is doing well.

You should really do the same type of video about Bulgaria, it is even more drastic in some aspects.

It's all cultural shift, it happens in all Western countries: 1.) Group of DINKs i s growing rapidly. 2.) People tend to choose their careers over children these days . 3.) People tend to delay the decision of having children, thus have fewer children and also 4.) biologically woman's fertility peaks in her early and mid-20s after which it starts to decline 5.) young people are broken and feel like the world is a gutter. They can't see a reason to bring a new life in to this world. 6.) People used to have children because they have had sex. The Pill disconnected sexuality from human nature. Except of Israel, all developed and developing countries use immigration to drive population growth, meaning all modern/ rich countries are dying.

Why not legislate the robotization of certain sectors of the economy of a country? This way the younger generations don't have to work twice as hard as the older ones did to stabilize the country

@aar0n709

4 күн бұрын

Very stupid person.

They need to make wages high enough for families to be comfortable with one parent working for at least the first 4 years after the child is born. The issue is couples in the west both need to work to make ends meet. The rich are to blame for taking more than their share from the economy

If instean of completely banning abortion and giving out money in cash, the governement would provide with free and available all the day child care, it would definitely help.

@JanKowalski-vj9py

4 ай бұрын

It worked during communist regime. Today it's considered a relict of a past. Sure, but it worked well.

Even seeing the image of a 500zł note is insane. I keep forgetting that thing exists lol

This crisis comes from wrong mentality of polish youth. We have all now. Money is enough. Only the problem is-Polish woman want socialism. Emigration is not an option, special-muslim emigration.

What the video didn't mention is that the Law & Justice party imposed a nearly complete ban on abortion. Some argue that the inability to access abortion discouraged at least some women from having children due to the unaddressed risks during pregnancy.

@grzegorzbrzeczyszczykiewic1139

5 ай бұрын

It was more like self-fulfilling prophecy as media (especially TVN) started a big scare campaign. While there was some case when a woman died because they didn't do abortion in time, it was a singular case and the risk of dying during pregnancy is very low in Poland. In fact countries that have higher mortality rates among pregnant women and newborns are usually those with the highest fertility rates. But when big media talked all the time that it's dangerous to get pregnant it might have had an effect.

@the_wolak1489

5 ай бұрын

it seems to be not so much relevant factor. I countries having less liberal abortion law than Poland fertylity rate is often bigger (f.e. in South America)

The graph at 1:04 is misleading because the Y axis is not labeled.

Most other European countries especially the ones western and Northern Europe have higher proportion of immigrants which probably raises their birth rates compared to Poland which has fewer immigrants from non-European countries who might have more children

I think one of the biggest reason is housing, its getting very expensive Everywhere. How are you supposed to have a child when you are barely able to afford your rent which takes half of your salary. And i say this as an engineer, i earn more than 60/70% of the rest of the population. Rising inequalities is not a problem because "rich shouldnt be rich" but when you are not able to afford having of child it should be a political question.

Nothing to do with religion. It's about money and safety of livelyhood. Those who lived through changes in '90 are scared for life, most of them are afraid what future brings. This is the first generation who massively stormed universities in hope to secure better future for themselves. Therefore Poland is a country with one of the biggest percentage of people with higher education. I'm not talking college, I'm talking proper higher university degree. Traditionally higher educated parents meet the standard: 2+1 family. One of the reasons: they actually calculate money. That "+1" is currently at the age where they supposed to start their own family. And its not getting any better. Your statistics showing exactly that. Now very likely they open doors for mass immigration "to save birth statistics". That will be end of the Poland as we know and begining of something completely different.

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I think you ignored the biggest factor - the 2020 tightening the abortion law. Now abortion in poland is essentially not legal in any scenario. This decision caused some pretty long protests and likely impacted the fertility rate (thank you law and justice)

@jo9932

17 күн бұрын

The birth rate didn't change at all from that. It's been collapsing since the Ukraine invasion. It's something from that year that's dropping it to 1.3

most people won't think about starting a family until they're financially stable bc of the unregulated housing market, a working couple won't ever have enough money to buy their own house, or even just flat, the rent often takes up more than 50% of the income, + with the rising inflation(and greedflation) just getting by is tough my sister and her partner emigrated to norway recently bc they just didn't see any perspectives here the intense anti abortion laws prohibiting abortion even if the mothers life is in danger also play a significant factor, 10+ woman have died, people are scared about getting pregnant

@Cubus-zapasowy

5 ай бұрын

Abortion is legal if mother's life is in danger. Don't spread lies.

@evilds3261

5 ай бұрын

@@user-ny5hn1wc6kYou do know this will not work. A solution is not a solution if it creates more problems than it solves.

@evilds3261

5 ай бұрын

@@Cubus-zapasowy Yes, but only when it is too late. The laws are written in such a way as to only allow preventative action if it is apparent that the mother's life is in danger. By the time symptoms show up, lasting damage has already been done. Leaving a dead fetus inside the womb for too long can lead to life-threatening infections that can cause permanent infertility. Removal of a dead, rotting baby corpse is through abortion.

@Cubus-zapasowy

5 ай бұрын

@@evilds3261 If it's too late then you can't have an abortion anymore, so not really.

@evilds3261

5 ай бұрын

@@Cubus-zapasowy Some people consider removing a dead fetus from a woman's womb to be the same as abortion. I've seen women accused of abortion when they had to get a dead baby out of their bodies.

I feel like this is something ineviatable. Countries who developing or developed is having this fate in the end doesn't matter what kind of benefit they are presenting to their citizens. Imho you can not reverse this but only slow it down. Immigration is slowing down it for awhile but it is also causing a lot of demographic problem as well so it is kinda hard to find a solution for this. Maybe with the automation and developed AI countries can provide UBI but I am not really sure if it gonna happen in near future. Ppl are saying France and Sweden is above replacement rate but I guess the main reason is having a lot of immigration from other countries (which is causing demographic problems) and nice social benefits AND it is still not enough.

@meretricioussimp7759

5 ай бұрын

there wont be demographic problems if they take care and properly integrate immigrants

@user-ds8rj2vc4v

5 ай бұрын

Immigration is making the situation worse. It'll slow the population decline down, but also push down wages and increase housing costs. Wages and housing costs in relation to cost of living is the driving factor behind population decline.

@inbb510

5 ай бұрын

@@meretricioussimp7759 easier said than done. If those immigrants don't want to accept things like LGBTQ equality because of their devoutly held religious beliefs, then that society is going to have to make compromises to have above replacement level birth rates.

@Cockmonging

5 ай бұрын

@@meretricioussimp7759 or, you know, accept immigrants from places that aren't barbarian central.

@oussamafataicha2987

5 ай бұрын

Talking about barbarism? you guys are literally the only continent that lead to the killing of 50M people in WW2 and 20M in WW1 not mentioning the civil wars. @@Cockmonging

Reason is always the same, using money spending instead of creating methods.

It should be noted that any major polish baby boom since early XVII century ended up 2m below ground or on emmigration. The last big baby boom in Poland took place in early 1980-ties and as soon as those people were brought up and educated they en mass fled to UK and Ireland just after Poland's entry into EU. This way Poland lost a cohort that otherwise would be responsible for actual birth rate. Children of those people are now citizens of UK, Ireland and many other coutries but not Poland. There's no will to repeat the same process again as now we're very well aware the costs and that it would end with no benefits at all for the country. Someone else will use Poles as a cannon fodder or slave labor but not this time.

It's a tough issue getting to a sustainable birthrate.

It's worth noting that Poland sits on a pool of 20 million emigres who left due to poor economic conditions, primarily young working age men and fertile women. Now that Polands economy is good it's reasonable to assume many will be returning.

@timokohler6631

5 ай бұрын

Only problem is that it's not good.

@JanKowalski-vj9py

4 ай бұрын

They won't return or they will return only as retirees so they won't increase the workforce pool.

@IhaveBigFeet

4 ай бұрын

@@timokohler6631 It’s definitely much better than when they left, only a few thousand behind Spain in GDP Per capita PPP and will probably overtake them by end of 2024

@timokohler6631

4 ай бұрын

@@IhaveBigFeet Spain isn't exactly a prime example of a functional wealthy economy to be honest.

Henson shaving gaining international recognition.

TLDR: no, it does not. Poland has a TFR of 1.4 and is more fertile than South European countries.

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@juluviaarmstrong

5 ай бұрын

Hey there, I have been trading for about a few nonths now and just about every trade slaps me in my face. Nearly impossible for me to catch more than a few points. I try to do top down analysis and MTF analysis, but it doesn't work for me. I say to myself, clearly I'm in the 90% that lose money, so I open a demo account, do my analysis, then take the opposite of what I would normally take I know, it sounds stupid but I was desperate) and get the same result. I'm starting to feel hopeless, any advice for a struggling trader?

@Charlie34185

5 ай бұрын

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@danielt.tremaine

5 ай бұрын

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@elishadan212

5 ай бұрын

This is actually one of the reasons why I'm still very skeptical. Traditionally careful and bearish critics are now turning bullish and calling August the final double bottom. I think that the charts mean little if CP| remains high and Fed hawkish. We'll see tomorrow. Even if CPI is at or below the expected rate, I'd need to see a third

As a pole abroad I really hope everyone including me that left Poland for work to one day come back to Poland and help out our country 🇵🇱

@ermin2248

5 ай бұрын

@@trffft2866 Jews spent almost 2000 year outside of their homeland. Compared to this one generation of migrants are nothing

@ermin2248

5 ай бұрын

Ciężką pracą i z bożą pomocą uda nam się

@nnnik3595

5 ай бұрын

​@@trffft2866actually time will help you as polands wages are rising quickly in comparison to the competition.

@mkuc6951

5 ай бұрын

Its a great country but they have to fix a few things. Tax is a joke running a business is like being treated like a russian spy. Salaries rates have to increase generally or cost of living has to go down.

@nnnik3595

5 ай бұрын

@@trffft2866 I disagree. Several statistical analasys put you ahead of both Germany and England at the 203X mark.

Besides housing & daycare there is a huge disproportion between single man and woman. 5 vs 4 million. Many man, especially in rural areas are not able to find a mate. A huge number of them is alone and will stay alone forever. Government give money for couples to have kids but the problem is there is not enough couples. It also means that men in rural area who would be able to build a proper house to raise children won't do it due to lack of mate. Pararelly housing prices in cities are skyrocketing and the limit is not yet on the horizon.

Children are expensive.

@evilds3261

5 ай бұрын

@@vwqwe-gh6tdYes, they are expensive because they cost more than just money, but time, energy, and patience. Is it worth the effort to raise someone society will only take for granted? Why bring someone into a system that does not even care about you let alone your potential offspring?

The concept of demographic in economy makes sense, but at this point in time - been following the analysis since I was in highschool, I press F on that idea. I mean, it makes sense. Fewer people = no subsidy = no market = no labor = collapse. It makes sense...but look at Japan. Analysts said it should die off since what? 2 decades ago? People say doom about abandoned town, empty schools, and what not. Look at it now. It's quality of life index is still going up. Maybe, just maybe, smaller is not a collapse. Maybe size does not matter, but how you use it...I'm talking about population. Because fewer people = no subsidy = no retirement = less time to complain = no market = no demand = no inflation = low rate of growth doesn't kill you = not need that many labor which they don't have. Not just Japan. Singapore population is also zhite, and they do well. The population that will make you see bright future is where? Gaza. Say, you have 10M to invest. Where will you put it? In Japan or Gaza? Hey, you know Gaza has good demographic.

@fungo6631

5 ай бұрын

Japan's living standards have been dropping for some time, though. Taxes are always increasing, so people earn less money. Nobody said it would die off in 2 decades.

@sobhansarthak6000

5 ай бұрын

What are you talking about? Tokyo is going up but japan outside of big cities is dying, schools and hospitals have already closed down. Their index has gone up but their standard of living did go down and has become stagnant, 2 decades was a warning..they peaked around 2010 with 128 million people, decrease started around 2015 since then they have been losing 300-400k every year because of it they changed their immigration laws to allow more people in. Singapore has immigration actually massive amount of immigration.

@sobhansarthak6000

5 ай бұрын

@@user-ny5hn1wc6k Dude Japan has immigrants, they are mostly Chinese Koreans and phillipinos as well as Japanese descendents from Brazil. It's different. Mass immigration is problematic but Japan is getting immigrants based on talent and merit gradually. China's problem is separate, they can just do the opposite of one child policy and everyone will have multiple children they are an autocratic country.

@sobhansarthak6000

5 ай бұрын

@@user-ny5hn1wc6k of course no one's denying that, but it will be gradual....they are still quite poor and India is diverse, they aren't against immigration because even going to another state within the country feels like another continent. They are against Muslim immigration from neighbours that is true but they aren't against other immigrants. Whatever opinion the rest of the world has towards their leadership their govt also changes. Their economic model is also drastically different than China...people can actually own things and enterprises are independent ..in China private citizens can't even own land in urban areas and none of the private companies are fully independent nor is their stock market. Their population decline won't be as drastic but China excels at cohesion which their biggest strength. China will continue to grow economically just because of how big it is, you cannot just ignore 17% if world's population. Demographic decline in smaller countries are a bigger issue because it's tied to their own security not just economy. If population declines in Estonia and Finland they are gonna get replaced by Russians. These things can be never happen in big countries. That is why so much stress is given to integration of immigrants , very few countries do it right and most of them are anglophones.

@jarnMod

5 ай бұрын

@@sobhansarthak6000 I think you look at a different index than me. My exposure to Japan is their bonds and stocks. Visit as tourist twice a year on average. My index is taken from their stay agency, translated. I think your index will be more accurate if you live there. I say their standard is going up because their life expectancy is up and you can call 86 stagnant for human life. Their stock seems stagnant but that's because they're driven by the few megacorps. I invest only in growth stocks which the recent one is doing pretty well so far. Their wage growth is minimal, but their inflation is also minimal. The only impact of seemingly inflation is yen fluctuation, of which a tourist like me enjoy rather immensely. I know their countryside is abandoned. That's my point. Their population decreases but every time I visit, I have better experience. Better accomodations. Better quality everything. It doesn't make sense isn't it? They should be going down, just like the analysis, but why don't they? I'm an investor by trade, so I don't trust papers. I trust results, and the result make me cautious on such prediction. It doesn't match the evidence.

Poland with 40mn population and landsize of france or germany is pretty populated already with multiple over a million city. It is no huge surprise. Dont know how much of food is imported but usually that is tipping point basic living costs go up. Emigration trend also suggests how close it is for optimal population.

The fertility crisis in Poland is considered dangerous due to its potential implications for the country's future population and economy. Here are a few reasons why it is concerning: 1. Declining birth rates: Poland's fertility rate has been decreasing steadily over the years and is currently one of the lowest in Europe. In 2020, the country had a total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.4, well below the replacement rate of 2.1 needed to maintain a stable population. With fewer births, the population will age rapidly, leading to a smaller workforce and challenges in sustaining social security systems. 2. Shrinking labor force: A declining population can result in a decreased labor force. This can lead to labor shortages in various sectors, negatively impacting economic growth, productivity, and competitiveness. It also raises concerns about the sustainability of pension systems and other social welfare programs. 3. Economic consequences: As the population ages and the workforce declines, Poland may experience a decline in consumer spending and economic activity. This can affect industries such as housing, retail, healthcare, and transportation. Additionally, a diminishing labor force can hinder innovation and technological advancement. 4. Long-term demographic imbalance: A severe fertility crisis can lead to a demographic imbalance between different age groups. A disproportionately larger elderly population can strain healthcare and social support systems, while a smaller younger population may face limited opportunities and higher burdens to support the aging population. 5. Brain drain: As young, highly skilled individuals opt for better career prospects abroad, Poland can experience a brain drain. This can further exacerbate the labor force shortage and hinder economic development. 6. Social issues: Low fertility rates can also have social consequences. As families become smaller, there may be fewer intergenerational bonds, impacting societal values and support networks. Additionally, the pressure on women to balance work and family life can increase, potentially leading to lower workforce participation rates for women. Addressing the fertility crisis requires comprehensive strategies that focus on improving family-friendly policies, such as affordable childcare, flexible work arrangements, and stronger support systems for working parents. It also involves raising awareness about the benefits of having children and addressing socio-economic factors that contribute to low fertility rates. 7. Dependency ratio: The fertility crisis in Poland also impacts the dependency ratio, which refers to the proportion of the population that is not of working age and relies on the working-age population for support. With a declining fertility rate, there will be a larger proportion of elderly citizens compared to the working-age population. This places a significant burden on the working individuals who have to support a growing number of retirees through taxes and social security contributions. 8. Social welfare systems: Poland's social welfare systems, such as pensions and healthcare, are designed based on assumptions of a certain population size and age structure. With a declining population, these systems face financial strain as they struggle to meet the needs of an increasing number of retirees. This can lead to reduced benefits, increased taxes, or even potential insolvency of these systems if reforms are not implemented in a timely manner. 9. Disruptions in healthcare: As the population ages and the demand for healthcare services increases, Poland's healthcare sector could face challenges in meeting the growing healthcare needs of the elderly. This may include shortages of healthcare professionals, increased healthcare costs, and potential strains on the healthcare infrastructure. 10. Cultural and identity concerns: A declining population can have cultural and identity implications. It may lead to a loss of cultural diversity, traditions, and values that are passed on through generations. The societal fabric of a country can be impacted, resulting in a sense of cultural loss and identity crisis. Addressing the fertility crisis requires a multi-faceted approach that involves government policies, social initiatives, and cultural changes. It involves promoting family-friendly policies and incentives to encourage individuals to have more children. Additionally, implementing measures to balance work and family life, improving access to affordable housing, and investing in education and healthcare systems can contribute to reversing the fertility decline and mitigating its potential dangers.

@evilds3261

5 ай бұрын

Ah, but why would they make housing more affordable or invest in education and healthcare if it will cut into their profits? This world cares more about money than it does about the lives of its people. Just look at the US healthcare system, it cares more about making money than it does about saving people's lives.

Number one reason is culture. People mostly see children as a burden or an hindrance to their careers or personal liberties. People point at x and y financial reasons but this isn't true, monetary measures have little to no effect on birth rates. Housing crisis wasn't a thing in the 70-80's when this trend took root. Women fully integrated the workplace, that's what happen.

Quality or quantity ?

The one thing the governments can do to fix this is simple and unpopular. Ban on birth control and abortion. Say what you want about sex rights but the death of a nation is far more tragic economically to you than a pregnancy

@yurikoshokugan4395

13 күн бұрын

And besides, it's not about "productivity rights", because people earlier had kuds despite the ban on abortion

The answer is simple, provide REAL economic benefits to having children. 1) The more children, the lower the mortgage rate for housing. 2) Support systems such as childcare are required with quality workers. Not only for working parents but for parents that occasionally need a break. 3) Recognition of a likely increase in domestic violence. Raising kids is stressful. We evolved with a desire to have kids. Our circumstances prevent most people from acting on it. If society wants women to have more kids, then society needs to shift its priorities to support both parents. The natural desire will unfold.

Britain needs to do more to encourage young families. We can't keep relying on mass migration to prop up the ageing population.

@noneofyourbusiness4830

5 ай бұрын

The way I see it, living in London is too expensive, but outside of London there's a lack of good jobs. Correct me if I'm wrong. This is a major cause of low fertility.

@baha3alshamari152

5 ай бұрын

No country has ever implemented a successful policy that increased birth rates There's nothing the government can do about it

@baha3alshamari152

5 ай бұрын

​@@noneofyourbusiness4830 Wrong, Georgia has the highest birth rate in Europe and Niger has the highest birth rate in the world

Most mathematical population/tax/birthrate/workforce models assume retirement at between 61-65 years. The modeling changes dramatically by adding an extra 1-5 years of work. For those fit enough, retiring at 70 is more than feasible.

@sobhansarthak6000

5 ай бұрын

Depends on the life expectancy no? For the govt its feasible but for common people retiring at 70 isn't, France had widespread protests over this just last year.

I can't find this one on Nebula :(

It is all about housing.

It just occurred to me. "is this why the peace and justice party abolished abortion?" I initially thought that it was just the normal Conservative action but this video definitely made me think about it. I don't think Tusk will reinstate abortion or at least he will ignore it as long as he can when people try to bring it up again. Maybe this sounds crackpot but I'm just thinking out loud. Love the video!

@Cubus-zapasowy

5 ай бұрын

Tusk has moved significaly to the left since he was Prime Minister before. I wouldn;t be surprised.

@evilds3261

5 ай бұрын

@@user-ny5hn1wc6kBanning contraceptives will increase STD and STI spread. Contraceptives protect against STDs.

@bobsteve4812

5 ай бұрын

@@user-ny5hn1wc6kThe last thing the world needs is more unwanted kids.

@grzegorzbrzeczyszczykiewic1139

5 ай бұрын

Tusk has left wing party as a coalition member and he has to throw a bone to them. But it won't be a drastic change, otherwise he would fall out with PSL, a center-conservative member of his coalition. So I think we will see at least return to status quo circa 2020 or maybe they will liberalise the old law (which was already conservative for European standars) a bit. But not too much as PSL is stronger than the Left party at the moment.

@viktorialvov

5 ай бұрын

And yet, the ban of abortion did not help PiS to increase birth rate. Because it never helps. They just outsourced abortions to Netherlands and Chech Republic. And before the war, a lot of polish women came to Ukraine for abortion, that's it.