even the devs dont know the drop chance💀

@nguyenduythang7598

14 күн бұрын

it really become facts lol

@stoneman210

14 күн бұрын

someone needs to leak the hypixel RNG source code, just to see how absurd things are.

@sciencetheory2818

14 күн бұрын

They know but it's impossible for them to tell us cos it's funny

Programmer here: There's a non zero chance the way they described the drop chance was accurate, but with one crucial mistake. Instead of the rate starting at 1/8,000 just after the drop and becoming more common as people do nucleus runs (until 1/800), they may have accidentally made it start at 1/800 and get MORE RARE as people keep doing runs without a drop, until it reaches 1/8,000. This would effectively make alloys drop in "bunches" and go through dry spells if too many runs happen in a row network-wide without dropping one. This would explain why post Mining V3 alloys have seemed to be so common, because a ton more people are doing them and preventing a dry spell.

@Derailious

14 күн бұрын

Yeah something like that is definitely possible. All it would take is missing exactly 1 zero

@yeetdragon2413

14 күн бұрын

this makes a lot of sense

@RERE-iz2dy

14 күн бұрын

wait your b2b insane alloy moment where 2 players dropped alloy super close is now wrong also i cant wait for the real drop chances to be revailed

@diamondcraftmusic1005

14 күн бұрын

I think Thirty should be promoted to an Admin to fix the spaghetti Code

@bobsmith12345

14 күн бұрын

yea that sounds like something hypixel would code

If they make it so the alloy is as rare as the wiki claims, I will flip my desk.

@Hypixel_how_to

14 күн бұрын

I will die if so

@Hypixel_how_to

14 күн бұрын

I will die if so

@lool8421

14 күн бұрын

Yeah, alloy chance is already insanely stupid, no need to make it even worse

@lasagnapig630

14 күн бұрын

as someone who dropped an alloy in early game and sold it, i would cry if that happened

IMO every RNG/super rare drop should have some sort of pity filter like an RNG meter (you probably have heard this a lot but I still think it would help make the grind of skyblock reasonable and thus make it a better game)

@alism1080

14 күн бұрын

definitely, especially now that there's mythic rabbits that give sb exp (and have no pity like trophy fish) so some people can be locked out of maxing the game for a certain amount of time just due to bad luck, which is not how sb levels are supposed to be.

@blooddragon3723

14 күн бұрын

In that interview with jaya by fearless he said that everything should have a feeling of progression and that rng meters fixed that and that they should add it to everywhere its reasonable to do so

@oAbzi

14 күн бұрын

@@alism1080trophy fish have pity 100 for gold 1000 for diamond, but alloy needs a drop chance grinding it on Ironman is actually so ridiculous even pendant of divan imo

@mrdragonboi

10 күн бұрын

Agreed mate, I don't see why the nucleus can't have a pity and/or RNG meter system since, progression was a bit scuffed without it.

I like how the game has an official wikipedia and contains several inaccuracy. I reported some of them earlier but they haven't been fixed even a year later. If I don't know something and I want to get a full picture then I don't feel it professional if there's only approximate information up there.

@Lilaichii

14 күн бұрын

I've often had things fixed within the week, maybe the editor team got more proper by now since a year ago

math major here: So the way the phrase "people who dropped an alloy did so withing 1000 runs" is very misleading statistically. Say you have 1000 people, and they do 1000 runs each with drop chance being unknown. Then you go ahead and say that everyone who dropped an alloy did so within 1000 runs. This statement is true although it doesnt prove anything about the alloy drop chance! If you wanna investigate that I suggest: a) Find every person with 1000+ runs and ask them if they dropped an alloy b) Convince admins to run a loot test for like 1m runs at each hour mark. What you said is: "Find a lucky player and ask if he is lucky"....

I must say that 90% of divan's alloys droping before the 1000th run says very little about drop rate, and more about population of skyblock, very little ammount of players make over 1k runs, and a lot of people make 50 runs becouse of the xp and a lot of people go into a nucleus runs farming spree, probably less than .1% of players who made at least 1 nucleus run reach 1k runs, and let say average nucleus runs from people who at least made 1 is arround 10, that would perfectly explain that 90% of players drop a nucleus runs before 1000th run, becouse more than 90% of runs are before the 1000th, also the people who do more than 1000 runs make 1000 runs b4 theyr 1000+ runs, making it easyer than the condition is true

@Kascep

14 күн бұрын

That is exactly what I was thinking the second that he said it

@thecrazyeagle9674

14 күн бұрын

Yeah it's simply a fallacy to imply that "almost all alloys dropped has been dropped under 1k runs" -> "alloy is more common than 1/8000". With this statement alone, you cannot infer anything. With additional information, such as the data that was stated the last video you can make such inferences, but not just from this statement alone.

When you start doing blazes make sure you make it so donations increase the time you need to do blaze slayer. Its the best idea in the world that has absolutely no reprocushion and hasnt been done a certain frog youtuber

@Derailious

14 күн бұрын

I have set that up. It is definitely a good idea.

Average hypixel skyblock admins moment:

This is a lot of effort into finding the drop chance of something none of us casual players are ever getting. Lots of dedication tho im still watching this

we need more people to like the short guys

This isn't the only item with non-accurate chances. Flame dye had dropped many times from from blazes besides smoldering blazes even tho they are probably the most popular ones to kill for money. (I have 4x the amount of kills needed for the avg chance and havent dropped it yet) also based on other top players in blaze slayer, they haven't got the dye either. Some people also speculate the midnight dye also having wrong chances cause non have dropped on the server even tho the whole server has well above the total kills needed to drop one, we should've dropped plenty by now.

ngl the fact it has been this long and the wiki didn't clarify anything, it means the admins don't really know the chances well enough or the communication between the wiki editors/admins is awful

Does this mean the admins are gonna make it actually 1/8k or they gonna fix the wiki to say the drop chance it is now?

@Derailious

14 күн бұрын

No clue but full permission to blame me if they make it harder to get

Is the watcher in dungeons broken rn?

Friend just dropped his second alloy today

I commented this before. But you really should have seen this coming thanks to Mr. Robot frog aka martincitopants! What are you doing?

Well I guess my rarest RNG item, the Quick Claw has a fixed chance (meaning its not like the alloy) but idk when I had it, but darn an alloy is just, luck issue?

goat

@Derailious

14 күн бұрын

W man

good correction. main takeaway is that all we can prove is that something is wrong.

i have a crazy i dea, double checking what you say might be a good idea

you have no idea how thankful ironman players are for you bringing attention to the divans alloy chance, because of it theres a non 0 chance things may be improved 🙏

I dropped an alloy on my 20th run. Was dope asf

Im pretty sure that things which are written in the wiki are approved by any admins ... and should be the way a specific mechanic is working. On the other im also sure that some game-mechanics are not working like admins think they do. So the conclusion is -> They wont change the wiki text in future ... but rather will look in the game how they screwed up the "global-drop-chance" and in worst case alloys are rarer in the end than now ... and a update-day-1-feature will be "fixed" 3 years later ... Be prepared guys if they think they should look at "Magic Find" ...

diana rng meter when

this is pretty funny that alloy drop rate was wrong

I dropped my first alloy on my 12th ever CN run lol

0:45 sinGLUAR player sources? :sus:

We forgive you skyblock news lord

bro saw the pug vid

theres more bots than real comments

I got an alloy in like 150 runs

I have done less than 500 and have gotten 2 divans alloys

Bro the bots

95 hours of blaze slayers is nothing i am currently have 4.5M Blaze slayer XP and its not that hard i`d say

i Didnt get one for 2700 runs

@silence8227

14 күн бұрын

Why did you do 2700 runs

Hum?

w

why r u absessed over this, second vid

@Derailious

14 күн бұрын

two videos = obsessed. you got me

"The vast majority of players who has dropped an alloy has done so under a thousands runs" 1:16 This is NOT the same as what you said in the previous video, and it does NOT imply that the drop rate is way more common. The data you showed in the previous does indeed imply that the droprate is more common, but this statement does not. To show this, imagine if people simply stopped doing runs after a thousand runs, then everyone who gets an alloy must necessarily drop it under a thousand runs, and so your statement does not imply anything.

@Derailious

14 күн бұрын

Correct, it is not the same thing as I said in the previous video. Which is why I corrected it. Also, the general drop rate info from the graphs in the previous video was correct. That data showcases a bunch of info- notably detailing how the drop rate cannot possibly be correct based on what it states on the wiki.

@thecrazyeagle9674

13 күн бұрын

@@Derailious Yeah that's awesome, and it seems like the data was done well. However, your statement about how "most people who have gotten alloy has gotten it under 1000 runs" it simply DOES NOT follow that the drop rate is more common. This is as others have pointed out, survivorship bias. "Most people who won the lottery did so with few scratch tickets" is a true statement, however, clearly, scratch tickets very rarely give a win.

@Derailious

13 күн бұрын

@@thecrazyeagle9674 My point is that combining that fact with the rest of the data points to the 1/8000 number simply being wrong. That was the entire purpose of the video. If the 1/8000 number were correct (or if it were 1/800,000) it would logically follow that many more people would end up having to do thousands of runs to drop an alloy. This has not generally been the case.

@thecrazyeagle9674

13 күн бұрын

@@Derailious That's absolutely right, however, what you just said isn't what you actually said. You said that most people who have it has done under 1k runs. I'm just trying to show that what you said in THIS video is false. Not in the previous video (see my scratch ticket example for why it's wrong).

@Derailious

13 күн бұрын

@@thecrazyeagle9674 In this video, what I've said is that the majority of people who dropped an alloy did so within the first 1,000 runs. This isn't up for debate, there's factual evidence behind it. I really don't understand what your argument is. Maybe i'm just being stupid and not getting it, but I have no clue.

Sixth

This reeks of survivor bias. You say that the vast majority of people who dropped an alloy dropped it within a thousand runs, but what about those who didn’t even drop one in the first place? Whoever did these calculations seemed to have some statistical knowledge but have they checked their assumptions?

@Derailious

14 күн бұрын

I mean its not survivorship bias to take the total amount of people who have dropped an alloy and make an analysis based off of those people specifically.

@Derailious

14 күн бұрын

Like, its objectively fact that of the people who have dropped an alloy based on the data collected, >50% dropped it in the first 1,000 runs. It would be survivorship bias to extrapolate based on that fact that most people get an alloy within 1,000 runs, which is what I corrected in my wording.

@cozygung

14 күн бұрын

It is survivor bias because you are using biased data; data that only consists of people who dropped an alloy. I don’t think you’ll see many people doing over 1000 runs….

@cozygung

14 күн бұрын

My reply got deleted. I said: “It is survivor bias because you are using incomplete, biased data; data that consists of people who have dropped an alloy. I can’t see there being many individuals who would do more than 1000 runs.

@Derailious

14 күн бұрын

@@cozygung I did not delete your reply, and the data does also include people who have not yet dropped an alloy. It once again is not survivorship bias because I am not making any statements about people who haven’t dropped one. There is no bias there, its just a factual statement.