This is amazing. I have seen this video a dozen of times and still find it awesome!

@aspasricha

Жыл бұрын

True!

Haha, i'm surprised no one mentioned the clip at 13:37 haha.... Love the camera man! :D

@jOasisTX

7 жыл бұрын

i get this strange sensation to go to panda express everytime I watch this video...

@rlam86

7 жыл бұрын

Haha, I'm happy someone noticed my comment!

@charleswesesky747

6 жыл бұрын

At first I thought I was seeing things to be honest. Had to rub my eyes and rewind.

@pawland7535

3 жыл бұрын

i came to comment section right away to see if someone else noticed that too lol

@formxshape

3 жыл бұрын

Someone please feed the cameraman!

His book is one of the best investing books ever written.

@vietnamstockmarket8350

5 жыл бұрын

Leggo My Ego agree very good book.

Such a good talk. Good questions too. 5/5 would watch again.

Thanks for sharing this talk with the public!

Thank you for sharing this talk.

insane. Amazing stuff

I have read Benjamin Graham's, Security analysis ( reprint of original 1934) and The Intelligent investor, books. You have added a bit more information.

Long video, but well worth the watch.

The beauty of this strategy is not only its embedded systematic approach to security selection but its logic behind why it works. The logic is simple, and often times, simple is better

Good presentation and no marketing stuffs from this guy. Well done!

Still watching this video today with the current pandemic. I hope everyone is doing fine. I can see intel with this investing strategy. Haha!

@randallwilliam2869

2 жыл бұрын

sorry to be so off topic but does someone know of a method to log back into an instagram account..? I was dumb lost the password. I love any assistance you can offer me.

Surprisingly I was surprised. Investments in high ROIC businesses underperforms the market.

@pawex8231

9 жыл бұрын

Jaromír Dvořák There is a known correlation between ROE and P/B ratio. As the ROE gets higher, so does the P/B. I was unable to find a similiar study on ROIC, but I might suspect it's the same story. Not only it's extremely rare for a company to maintain it's ROIC for a decade, people also tend to pay a hefty price for a high-ROIC enterprise.

20:14 The Magic Formula 34:04 The Acquirer´s formula.

Absolutely brilliant

Very good. Should one take into account unusual gain or loss when calculating the acquire multiple? Or is it just going to give less return?

@gastonloyo9957

11 ай бұрын

If you use EBIT, for example, then you are letting unusual profits/losses out of the equation.

Some nice metrics in this discussion.

Let me answer 51:50 question about why Buffett changed from Liquidator to deep value to franchise as I have read Buffett's biography a while back. He changed because he was afraid of confrontation. There was time when the angry workers of a liquidated company went to his office with pitchforks and police were involved and it traumatized him. He went to deep value until he met Munger. But I must say this talk blew my mind.

@Dr0111

3 жыл бұрын

I have read his book the snowball as whell. He bought a mill or other company in a small town. And thr company cash and assets minus liabilities where higher then the stock price. Bud when liquidating a company buffet found out, that there where real people working there. So thats why it easier to just buy great bussiness.

Tobias Carlise is going to be legendary

What I find is the weakness of this particular strategy is its oversimplicity. It doesn´t lack logic or a track record of outperformance, however like one person in the video asked what if a sufficient number of people used this strategy would it stop working and the answer is yes (maybe it will revert, no one can know for sure). Doing my own backtesting in the Russell 3000 universe with a quarterly rebalance and using the Ebitda/EV ratio, from 01/01/2001 the top decile returned 19% annualized up until 12/24/2014 (the date the video was published). However from this date to today (01/29/2022) the top decile only returned 5% vs 13% for the benchmark. The same is true for other very simple value investing quantitative models (like Greenblatt´s magic formula, or O´Shaughnessy´s models). Maybe this great advantage that Tobias and Greenblatt mention in their books (simplicity) may end up being the very reason for the downfall of their models

@Martin-qb2mw

2 жыл бұрын

The value factor is incredibly hard to arbitrage so there are good reasons to believe it can persist post publication. You are a mutual fund or pension fund manager who needs to put up good numbers every quarter are you really gonna invest into a strategy that can trail the market for 20 year periods? And even if you do, would you like to sit down with your investors and explain why your Emerging Market steel companies or ciggarette companies didn't deliver good returns? It's just not happening. If you wanna keep your job you buy Google instead and that's why the premium can persist even though everybody knows about it.

@ericfrost4768

2 жыл бұрын

​@@Martin-qb2mw I understand your point but do not think it is that hard to arbitrage at least to a certain level and believe the problem with this strategy is actually that using one multiple does not define value very well. Businesses are very complex and a company is only cheap if the multiple is lower than it should be, not low in a straight forward nominal way, some companies are just crap and deserve low multiples (A company with a 10 EV/EBITDA that should be a 15 is cheaper than one with a 4 that should have a 5). Don´t get me wrong, I would still rather invest in a simple value strategy rather than an index but believe that quantitative value investing can be done in a much smarter way.

@Martin-qb2mw

2 жыл бұрын

​@@ericfrost4768 My intuition says that you should be right but there is no data to suggest that stock pick can outperform quantative value. It's pure speculation on your part. Some guy on ARQ says that if the value factor had been arbed then value stocks would behave as noise, but they dont. They behave exactly like they have done in previous cycles which indicates that this factor is still a thing. When I can no longer buy pe10 companies and short pe50 companies then this factor is dead but that is not the case today.

@maxmustermann3690

Жыл бұрын

@@ericfrost4768 what do you mean "quantitative value investing can be done in a much smarter way" can you give some tips ? greetings

PB used to determine over value of under value. earing for most undervalue shares is falling years and most over value shares is increasing over the years

Great author

brilliant talk and interesting comments, guys :)

high value portfolio- still growing a quite high rate growth but available for much cheaper multiple

Insightful

Don't be nervous, it's good stuff

SO LOW GROWTH IS BETTER THAN HIGH GROWTH----VERY INTERESTING

Tobi is not a marketing guy. We can guess that from the way he explains things. That makes him more reliable.

@geospatialindex

5 жыл бұрын

I agree. He is a terrible speaker. But hey

@emilv4112

2 жыл бұрын

@@geospatialindex wtf? I think his skills were on fleek. Usually don't watch presentations, but this was GOLD.

good

glaumer portfolio has the highest rate of growth --earing, cashflow, book value, operating earning all are growing high.----you have to pay higher multiple to acquire these---19.8 pE, 10.8 PCF higher to acquire very expensive.

goddamn had to watch this twice

❤

5 year average return to the portfolio ---contrarian did the best.

GOOD COMPANY WITH FAIR PRICES OF WARREN- HIGH QUALITY AND GOOD VALUE--

HIs books are great too. I have made $135k this year alone using these techniques.

@khafreahmose8768

2 жыл бұрын

Dude like how?? $135k annually??? Please share your insight!!!

@Mikster_Mindo

2 жыл бұрын

Yes but you invested 23 million USD, so it is not that impressive

Whats the difference between enterprise yield and acquirer's multiple with ebit?

OK... Looks impressive... I need a concrete methodology or model What are the steps I must apply to outperform? The acquirers multiple? But I suspect if everyone starts applying the AM screen then prices will be driven up and the model will be confounded...

@Martin-qb2mw

Жыл бұрын

Even today you can buy companies at 2-3 times EV / EBIT when the market is trading at 13. This has not been arbitraged and it will never get arbitraged because it's too risky and too volatile.

somebody help me out here...does he mean that buying companies whose earnings are on the decline will outperform the companies whose earnings are on the rise? how does he know that these companies wont just go bankrupt? is he expecting them to just "mean-revert" (which apparently has no reason whatsoever). I confused, to me it just sounds like: buy failing businesses and they will outperform because they will magically bounce back.

@petershk

6 жыл бұрын

Albert Tseng More or less yes. But the key to remember is as an investor you don't make money based on well or how poorly a company does... You make money on how much better it does than other investors expect. So if a bunch of companies are expected to perform incredibly well then they have to do even more incredibly well for you to make money. If they are doing terribly all they have to do is survive. And because of human psychology companies that are expected to do well will tend to underperform relative to expectations and ones that are expected to do terribly will do better... Overtime... On average.

@geospatialindex

5 жыл бұрын

this is a really useful exchange thanks guys

@igrowfaster

3 жыл бұрын

Some go bankrupt but the deep value strategy still outperforms. The high returns incorporate some stocks continuing to go down. No way to know in advance which ones will be value traps.

SIMPLE MODEL HELPS US TO OUTPERFORM

13:34 bone apple tea

What's the story with @13.40? It seemed like a 'The Office' moment 😂

Great stocks and I just bought in on them, but I'm interested in making short term profit, let say turn a $150K to $500k in 6months, I'd appreciate tips on how what stocks to buy to make this much profit.

@bartoszdobroslaw9774

2 жыл бұрын

@Samanthwalter Archie That sounds great and how do i connect with her ?

@bartoszdobroslaw9774

2 жыл бұрын

@Samanthwalter Archie Okay i just found her website and left a message for her. thanks.

@mart5561

2 жыл бұрын

Buffet would tell you that doesn’t exist and there is no way to properly predict what the market is going to do in 6 months. Focus on knowing how to properly evaluate a company and the stock market will sooner or later agree with you. If you do this over a long term period of time you’ll b very rich.

@jayangli

2 жыл бұрын

Yup an investor Doesn't time the market

@lynchinvestor9758

2 жыл бұрын

What you are searching does not exist. Don’t get scammed by shady advisors who try to convince you otherwise.

This presentation should have started with the slide and statements of 35:53, then it would have been easier to follow. Information was interesting but the presentation was a bit fragmented and camera work didn't help. But thanks for the presentation.

@scottab140

6 жыл бұрын

Registered Investment Adviser who write book rarely are worth listening to.

OVER TIME UNECCELLENT OUT PERFORM THE EXCELENT.

is this talk done in America?

IBMs price to book ratio is 10:1, but Warren Buffett still loves that price. Sorting stocks by their p/b ratios is virtually meaningless when trying to find value.

@giraffevalue9245

8 жыл бұрын

+pools closed p/b ratio is a metric for value stock and only works well for value strategy. Not growth strategy.

@youngmyth

8 жыл бұрын

+Giraffe Value not to mention, IBM has infinite returns on tangible assets, given the larger composition of intangible assets

@2011blueman

8 жыл бұрын

Watch Buffett ducking the IBM question in this year's annual meeting on youtube. He's regretting the IBM investment. He went outside his circle of competence and it is biting him. Given the unusual ducking of the IBM question at the annual meeting, I would not at all be surprised if BRK is getting out of it's IBM position right now.

@bugida3266

7 жыл бұрын

wrong the lowest 10% of stocks by market to book on any stock exchange in any county has outperformed the overall market by 3-5% per year since the 1920's. Over a 65 year investment time horizon that compounds into a difference of about 650-1

@charleswesesky747

6 жыл бұрын

A low Price/Book value has been studied and usually outperforms the market.

SO WE ARE LOOKING FOR DECLINING EARNINGS AND UNDER VALUATION

buffet moved from liquidation method to franchise method. shes chandy it earning 2m on 8 capital and he valued 47m which was a discounted price.

13:38 gotta love the guy fucking munching in front of Tobias…

THE LITTLE BOOK THAT BEATS THE MARKET BY JOE

global market average yearly returns to portfolio sorted by PE, PB and PCF

@thomasorr1846

7 жыл бұрын

Md kabir yuan û

@thomasorr1846

7 жыл бұрын

I uuuuyjj

what bering backs the intrinsic value to market price-mean reversion.

his investment fund lags far behind the s&p500 after 3 years ...

@tutuji3181

6 ай бұрын

do you think it's because mean reversion takes longer these days, or it's an anomaly caused by covid.

Its funny how the person posing the question at 57:55 (with all the jargon not withstanding) asks how this strategy (acquirer's multiple) would work in companies which have managements with "motivations that are completely independent of the minority shareholder motivations". He ends up using "countries in Asia" as an example. My question is - why go all across the Pacific and use Asian companies as examples when the company in whose campus you are currently sitting is not that bad an example for this scenario!!

@richardtavares3210

9 жыл бұрын

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And the award of dumbest question of the talk goes to 38:45. He sure that Greenblat has enough money and does not care to make more money.

@pawland7535

3 жыл бұрын

he was right. He basically was trying to say either you or Joel is wrong. if Joel is not right then how did he manage 40% return for about 20 years?now Joel could easily say something and do something else so...

Problem with his gemicky formulas is, they only work until people catch on

@adityasalunke3444

3 жыл бұрын

Joel Greenblatt introduced this formula around mid 1980's

@danguee1

2 жыл бұрын

What - like a substantial part of the investment world suddenly starts to follow this relatively obscure method? Grow up.....

@Martin-qb2mw

Жыл бұрын

This has been known for 30 years and people still hasn't caught on. Nvidia still trading at PE 150.

1929 of the 600 stocks 200 traded less than liquideded value. some of them was selling net cash backing---less than cash after paying all liabilities. $1 was selling for .50c with string attached.

@danguee1

2 жыл бұрын

If any of that was in any way intelligible I might give it an upvote. Unfortunately, it is not possible to understand those 3 sentences - at all.

PE, PB, PCF, P operating earing. undervalue slow growth stocks portfolio and overvalue high growth stocks portfolio. 3 types slowest growth, medium growth, highest growth and three type of valuation most undervaluation, average ,most overvalued----9 types has come--- 3 are shown here-----

im gonna be rich as fuck!

@rlam86

7 жыл бұрын

What's the progress like now? :)

@urielmartinez6279

7 жыл бұрын

still working on it ;)

@rlam86

7 жыл бұрын

Uriel Martinez Haha, good luck and don't forget you're already rich :P

@urielmartinez6279

7 жыл бұрын

***** thanks man =)

@yoxal4373

2 жыл бұрын

Has the strategy been working for you mate?

Quantitative value of ra

4 years later undervalue shares earing improve and over value shares earing goes down

SO THE REAL DRIVE WAS UNDER VALUATION NOT THE GROWTH.

ASSET GROWTH, EQUITY GROWTH, PB VALUE, RETURN ON CAPITAL, RETURN ON EQUITY, RETURN ON SALES---- EXCELENT AND UNEXCELENT COMPANY

glamar underperform and value quinta out perform.

48:29 what he does

cash flow discountanted to get intrinsic value.

Reuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu

Thanks for this video! i've come back to watch it a couple of times as a form of recap. Just heard of Tobias' new book, i think he did an interesting interview with an Asian perspective too: kzread.info/dash/bejne/mWGZ2a6Iksytnto.html

NET CURRENT ASSET MODEL OUTPERFORM---CURRENT ASSESTS

He seems distracted.

Is it difficult to understand? or I am fool and idiot

BUFFET-YOU ARE MUCH BETTER OF OVER LONG TERM GROWTH RATHER THAN CIGAR BUTTS. HIGH QUALITY+ GOOD VALUE=High ROIC+ high EBIT/Enterprise value

@what_is_going_on7166

7 жыл бұрын

why are you screaming all the time? Who is your conversation partner that you are angry at?

TL;DW: It's basically EV/EBIT. They call it EBIT/Operating Earnings. It's a ludicrous strategy. It mostly returns crappy oil/gas, foreign mining and telecom companies, which are depressed for some reason already. Avoid this video and do something productive.

@tyler-iy4jk

3 жыл бұрын

Here's the top holdings in his fund portfolio right now: D R HORTON, BEST BUY, EBAY, MANPOWERGROUP, PULTE GROUP, SCHWAB CHARLES CORP, MOLINA HEALTHCARE, EVERCORE, ALLSTATE CORP. Seems pretty quality... yet cheap on acquirers multiple.

@Martin-qb2mw

Жыл бұрын

People see the data, see the returns, see the outperformance and still don't trust it. This is exactly why the strategy will work forever.

LOW GROWTH UNDERVALUE OUTPERFORMS HIGH GROWTH UNDERVALUE.

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misleading title