Crime Stats Are A Lie

Ғылым және технология

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We’ve been collecting and analyzing social statistics for about 200 years now. In some ways, we’ve made a lot of progress -- but in others, we’re just as clueless now as when André-Michel Guerry first set forth his laws of tracking crime. Mixing math and morality introduces so many possible variables that our interpretations of the data can range from insightful to harmful. Comparisons of violent crime between Scotland, India, and Estonia show just how difficult it is to make sense of social statistics, especially if we try to judge them in relative terms.
A handful of additional problems plague our analysis: data and its inferences that are good today might not hold up in the future, and a study of Boston-area youth shows how surprising long-term outcomes can be. Perverse financial incentives, underreporting, and catching minor criminals instead of the major drivers of crime all make our understanding of antisocial behavior that much more tenuous. Throw in the media’s use of our social statistics and it feels like the more we know about crime, the less we understand.
** ADDITIONAL READING **
Analysis of A-M Guerry’s “Essay on the Moral Statistics of France,” by Michael Friendly: www.datavis.ca/gallery/guerry/
English Translation of Guerry’s Essay, by Whitt & Reinking: www.datavis.ca/gallery/guerry...
“The Mismeasure of Crime,” by Mosher, Miethe, and Phillips (2011): sk.sagepub.com/books/the-mism...
“The Cambridge-Somerville Study: A Pioneering Longitudinal Experimental Study of Delinquency Prevention,” McCord, J. (1992). psycnet.apa.org/record/1992-9...
“Crime Waves and Moral Panics,” by Morgan Godvin: daily.jstor.org/crime-waves-m...
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Research and Writing by Matthew Tabor
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Editing by John Swan
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Huge Thanks To Paula Lieber
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Пікірлер: 1 200

  • @mr.sharma6504
    @mr.sharma6504 Жыл бұрын

    Last week in India, a truck scratched our car. But instead of calling the police, I called the owner of the logistics company and threatened to register a case against him. He offered to fix the dent for free since he owns a garage. The case was settled right there with no police being involved.

  • @TitusAzzurro

    @TitusAzzurro

    Жыл бұрын

    Unrelated to your story, but if i ever run a food truck I'll call it Sharma's Shawarmas. Good day sir.

  • @bn1193

    @bn1193

    Жыл бұрын

    @@TitusAzzurro Thats great name. But only if you start a shawrma truck

  • @flyingdragon6275

    @flyingdragon6275

    Жыл бұрын

    @@TitusAzzurro great name lol

  • @FirestormX9

    @FirestormX9

    Жыл бұрын

    @@TitusAzzurro you're a marketing legend, sir/ma'am

  • @avijitgoswami3082

    @avijitgoswami3082

    Жыл бұрын

    @@TitusAzzurro i hope you will be a successful businessman person 👍

  • @jinks3669
    @jinks3669 Жыл бұрын

    I am an Indian and I can tell you that most crimes here are not reported because no one wants to get into the judicial ,legal , criminal process. It is said here that "the process is the punishment" , so if you've been a victim , you'd suffer more during the prolonged process of getting justice than the crime itself. So many people spend their entire life fighting for justice .

  • @alexanderphilip1809

    @alexanderphilip1809

    Жыл бұрын

    Exactly.

  • @peterparker9954

    @peterparker9954

    Жыл бұрын

    Here in India, r@pe victims suffer more than the r@pists themselves, which is horribly misogynistic

  • @rakshit8570

    @rakshit8570

    Жыл бұрын

    Not exactly. 50 million cases are pending its reported thats why there are so much cases.

  • @rasputin774

    @rasputin774

    Жыл бұрын

    Not same everywhere in India though, there are some states with really good police, hence very high reported crime rates

  • @greendevil8796

    @greendevil8796

    Жыл бұрын

    Totally false and exaggerated statement from a room locked person Ig , you either are too narrowly visioned or u don't have time to do research , I've seen reports from the people you'd least expect . In no country do they complain about fights in a burger stall to the police bruh ... It's when a person physically has threatend u to almost take ur life or harmed your dignity that's when a person reports .

  • @abhigyanbisaria2603
    @abhigyanbisaria2603 Жыл бұрын

    As an Indian, I felt assaulted by that fist shake

  • @puneetmaheshwari

    @puneetmaheshwari

    Жыл бұрын

    Me too, let's report to police for spreading heat online /s

  • @hydronuke

    @hydronuke

    Жыл бұрын

    @@puneetmaheshwari bhai /s stands for serious i think you meant /j 💀💀💀

  • @cookiecrumbzi

    @cookiecrumbzi

    Жыл бұрын

    @@hydronuke /s means sarcasm

  • @puneetmaheshwari

    @puneetmaheshwari

    Жыл бұрын

    @@hydronuke /s is for sarcasm brother it is all over reddit

  • @Wmann

    @Wmann

    Жыл бұрын

    @@puneetmaheshwari Ah.

  • @VishalYadavSays
    @VishalYadavSays Жыл бұрын

    As an Indian we settle out fights with Angry Handshakes and settle the fight there only

  • @SwornInvictus

    @SwornInvictus

    Жыл бұрын

    I absolutely love how you guys handle aggression 😆

  • @maartenn2217

    @maartenn2217

    Жыл бұрын

    Y'all seem to have a little religious gang raping problem over there too

  • @adwaitnaravane5285

    @adwaitnaravane5285

    Жыл бұрын

    You you bloody.

  • @unknown-mx9it

    @unknown-mx9it

    Жыл бұрын

    @@maartenn2217 what! Where you got these type of information.

  • @srimanjha5112

    @srimanjha5112

    Жыл бұрын

    @@maartenn2217 source? or is it just trust me bro?

  • @Ethan_-iw8ug
    @Ethan_-iw8ug Жыл бұрын

    I'm Scottish and i'm surprised that alcohol consumed statistic isn't higher. It's literally our culture

  • @natendragon7172

    @natendragon7172

    Жыл бұрын

    Do your part and get those numbers up

  • @NoName-to5xl

    @NoName-to5xl

    Жыл бұрын

    That means you know it, you live with it and kniw how to manage it. Im from italy where wine is not even considered drinking. Its food. Cultures with stronger puritanical inheritance have the "drinking problem" like the usa.

  • @JustAPokemonCommentingOnVideos

    @JustAPokemonCommentingOnVideos

    Жыл бұрын

    india has 220 million muslims as well majority of whom don't drink alcohol at all as it is banned in their religion so that is even more embarrassing for scots that indians got this close

  • @remwastaken

    @remwastaken

    Жыл бұрын

    @@NoName-to5xl i mean here in italy i don't think people drink full on bottles of wine all the time. Also i think drinking wine is treated kinda like having a coke with a pizza or something. It isn't something you drink to no end on a night out, while more traditional alcohol i think is treated as a full on "let's drink a lot and have fun" type of beverage in scotlan. I could easily be wrong but from how people talk about pubs in the english peninsula it feels that way at least.

  • @MrGelliantGutfright

    @MrGelliantGutfright

    Жыл бұрын

    @@remwastaken English peninsula?

  • @kiran258
    @kiran258 Жыл бұрын

    Im Indian and I solve all my problems by shaking my hand vigorously , sometimes multiple times.

  • @sheezy2526

    @sheezy2526

    10 ай бұрын

    While wobbling your head?

  • @rickb06

    @rickb06

    5 ай бұрын

    ​@@sheezy2526yeah, don't be wobbly.

  • @puneetmaheshwari
    @puneetmaheshwari Жыл бұрын

    As a Indian i can confirm we don't like to go police for a fight with someone

  • @chromiyum6849

    @chromiyum6849

    Жыл бұрын

    Going to the police is for betas. Alphas can shake their fists for hours 😎😎

  • @wooshifgay462

    @wooshifgay462

    Жыл бұрын

    @@chromiyum6849 alpha male thing is a myth, you know that right?

  • @chromiyum6849

    @chromiyum6849

    Жыл бұрын

    @@wooshifgay462 welllll yes and no

  • @cookiecrumbzi

    @cookiecrumbzi

    Жыл бұрын

    @@wooshifgay462 yes, but the reply’s supposed to be a joke

  • @wooshifgay462

    @wooshifgay462

    Жыл бұрын

    @@cookiecrumbzi it definitely didnt seem that way, unfortunately people who define their entire personalities around the alpha male myth are more common that it should be

  • @nishanttripathi4021
    @nishanttripathi4021 Жыл бұрын

    TBH, here in India, we don't get involve physically easily but most of the time even a road rage constitutes only an exchange of "F-words"

  • @realShikha885

    @realShikha885

    Жыл бұрын

    More like MC BC, BSDK

  • @shinchannohara5621

    @shinchannohara5621

    Жыл бұрын

    "Hath lagake bataa"

  • @bn1193

    @bn1193

    Жыл бұрын

    Because when it comes to hand on hand fighting. Common people in India would have the idea "he is one among me" in the back of the mind. So you would hold back. I might be wrong but this is what I seen from many fights.

  • @asingha94

    @asingha94

    Жыл бұрын

    Haha mostly laga na laga na dikha na dikha na

  • @arnoldschwarzenigga2268

    @arnoldschwarzenigga2268

    Жыл бұрын

    @@asingha94 Yes ! 😂😂😂

  • @fugslayernominee1397
    @fugslayernominee1397 Жыл бұрын

    Being from India I can confirm we handle fist-shaking ourselves lol most people don't even want to go through the hassle of reporting normal fights/crimes until it turns real bloody.

  • @Butunmallick7851

    @Butunmallick7851

    Жыл бұрын

    We should ,this shows how mature Indians r

  • @ibadrizvi5740

    @ibadrizvi5740

    Жыл бұрын

    @@Butunmallick7851 It sounds more like a lack of trust in the policing system rather than maturity

  • @ashaypallav4158

    @ashaypallav4158

    Жыл бұрын

    @@ibadrizvi5740 It's not about lack of trust, it's about shame. If you go to the jail then the whole Indian society would look down upon you as if you have done some serious crime.

  • @ytbois9337

    @ytbois9337

    Жыл бұрын

    @@ibadrizvi5740 people feel thje police will attack them and put them in jail why ? becuz indians dont even know their rights in this country they have the right to do what they came but noboy uses them i have used ahelp from the police many times they are helpful and great the indian people break the rules and then they blame the police for putting a fine on then and then they cry on utube that police are attacking them

  • @devendrapoonia1

    @devendrapoonia1

    Жыл бұрын

    @@ibadrizvi5740 It is not about trust at all. It is a culture here, settling disputes without police involvement. Ground reality is always different. People always see negative part of it, but it is not always.

  • @SafavidAfsharid3197
    @SafavidAfsharid3197 Жыл бұрын

    In india living in a town of 130k in a poor state, i have seen very few crimes. Only 4-10murders in 10 year of living here. I haven't even gotten into fights in my school or colleges because and i have seen very few assult. When i visit some fight subreddit in reddit i always wonder like how they can fight like this. If we fight like that it would be considered attempt to murder here.

  • @xandex69

    @xandex69

    Жыл бұрын

    Wait you have seen 4-10 murders 💀

  • @danialrafid

    @danialrafid

    Жыл бұрын

    @@xandex69 How is that funny? 😐

  • @juliaf_

    @juliaf_

    Жыл бұрын

    @@danialrafid the fact that they've _seen_ that many

  • @ad2050

    @ad2050

    Жыл бұрын

    @@xandex69 I think he meant he heard of 4-10 murders in the past 10 years. People who witness murders usually know exactly how many they've witnessed, it's not a "4-10" type statistic they'll say. Also, English isn't his first language...

  • @o9708

    @o9708

    Жыл бұрын

    @@juliaf_ bro that's 4 in 130k, and that's too in 10 years, that's way less. That wouldn't even affect anyone's life in that city...

  • @12villages
    @12villages Жыл бұрын

    My Indian relative lives in the US. In closed door gossip, his take is that many in the US have some form of an unknown mental illness that makes them unpredictable on the streets.

  • @ravinakuwar1407

    @ravinakuwar1407

    Жыл бұрын

    Most of the people in west has very little inter personal contact with other people in their life and spend a lot of time indoors due to harsh winter there. Which makes them kind of anti Social beings.

  • @shantanupant7724

    @shantanupant7724

    Жыл бұрын

    Correct

  • @juanausensi499

    @juanausensi499

    Жыл бұрын

    It's not a mental illness, but a somewhat justified paranoia caused by some nasty vicious circles. Because everybody got guns, people are afraid, so they get guns. Because everybody got guns, people know their assaulters* could shoot them, so they tend to shoot first, justifying the other person's fears. *i mean 'assaulters' in the broadest meaning possible, that includes criminals, police and civilians

  • @chickenpuncher1674

    @chickenpuncher1674

    Жыл бұрын

    Probably do, but I dont think weve ever had organ stealing gangs tho.... Also he moved here, nobody forced him to, guy sounds like a wall licker.

  • @sian5483

    @sian5483

    Жыл бұрын

    Americans do seem to lack the idea of personal responsibility and self control. Yes mental illness exist but it’s rarely the case that your mental illness will literally turn you into a loose canon. Americans just use it to justify any form of violence they commit because their culture glorifies mental illness.

  • @shadowninja6689
    @shadowninja6689 Жыл бұрын

    Media reporting is definitely a problem with people's perceptions of crimes. There's been mayors of major cities that got voted out of office because (according to public polling) people believed that crime was up under their leadership, when in fact crime (including violent crime) was actually down, but because the local media constantly hyped up any violent crimes that occurred the public incorrectly believed that crime was up.

  • @KibitoAkuya

    @KibitoAkuya

    Жыл бұрын

    The opposite has probably happened too

  • @diakounknown1225

    @diakounknown1225

    Жыл бұрын

    @@KibitoAkuya well yeah. But seeing is believing. So what you mentioned won't affect most people. It's not irrelevant though

  • @emmafountain2059

    @emmafountain2059

    Жыл бұрын

    @@KibitoAkuya yeah, but it leans a lot more towards fear of crime. Making people afraid keeps them watching, nobody cares when the news says “everything’s going great, crime is down”, but saying “crime is rising and YOU are in danger, tune in at 10 to learn more”, convinces people they need to “stay informed”. Media is incentivised to scaremonger.

  • @ishansharma2463
    @ishansharma2463 Жыл бұрын

    I don't know if it's true or not, but calling police on someone in India is almost equivalent to ruining their lives cause it's really looked down upon in our country. So we would never do it for small fights, it's either resolved by the people around them controlling them or them just exchanging some swears and moving on.

  • @Samouraii
    @Samouraii Жыл бұрын

    Would you rather fight 1 Scot sized Indian or 100 Indian sized Scots? 🤔

  • @TheKingBeyondEverything

    @TheKingBeyondEverything

    Жыл бұрын

    I'd rather fight you for writing nonsense 😂

  • @SupahBro535

    @SupahBro535

    Жыл бұрын

    This is a very important question I need answered.

  • @NoName-to5xl

    @NoName-to5xl

    Жыл бұрын

    1 scot sized indian for sure

  • @TrekDelta

    @TrekDelta

    Жыл бұрын

    Would you rather fight a zombie sized chicken or chicken sized zombies?

  • @alexanderveritas

    @alexanderveritas

    Жыл бұрын

    Do you even watch *Bollywood* movies? A _Scottish sized Indian_ would be the *Bollywood* equivalent of *John Wick.* I’m telling you, none of us would stand a chance.

  • @PotionsMaster666
    @PotionsMaster666 Жыл бұрын

    Here in India, when the assaulter's uncle's cousin's nephew is a police inspector, reporting a crime becomes a bit hairy, lol

  • @shubhamdhull2060

    @shubhamdhull2060

    Жыл бұрын

    has here in india it very unlikely that some one in ur family or ur friend or some family member friend don't have some as a police as a friend or realtive also i have u don't have just sue them in court u can do that too

  • @friendlyatheist9589

    @friendlyatheist9589

    Жыл бұрын

    In india everyone has some connections in middle class so it's equals up

  • @hindustanimapper

    @hindustanimapper

    Жыл бұрын

    This is the case all over the world

  • @keeperse6

    @keeperse6

    Жыл бұрын

    @@hindustanimapper No, I don't think so..? Maybe in a lot of places, but certainly not everywhere.

  • @THUGPUTIN

    @THUGPUTIN

    Жыл бұрын

    No, road rage/assault are not reported in india... Majority of times, Indian crowd steps in and makes sure both go different ways or if they see someone wrong they'll join the assaulter to assault him for his fault...😂🤣😂 Even cops don't arrest for road rage/assault, often times they settle it through talking...

  • @ritanshusingh8064
    @ritanshusingh8064 Жыл бұрын

    Comparing Indian society to any western is not directly possible because Indian society and people behave like a closed system relying on each other much more than any western society. To see the difference, just observe people fighting on streets in India and any western country and you will see how different they behave

  • @WarWarWar4049

    @WarWarWar4049

    Жыл бұрын

    Right. Few months ago I was curious about how westeners fight in the streets compared to Indians. So I took two subreddits for a rough reference. r/gharkekalesh and r/justicenow. Btw justice now is banned for some reason. What I observed was even serious fights in India were limited to regular slaps and uneffective kicks. But even small disputes in west were met with serious punches which most of the time result in knockouts.

  • @rinkiek3917

    @rinkiek3917

    Жыл бұрын

    i think that is the whole point. That cultures affect how people behave in a society. Something that will not reflect in the numbers.

  • @ritanshusingh8064

    @ritanshusingh8064

    Жыл бұрын

    @@rinkiek3917 Its not same for every culture. A French or German culture would be much closer to American than an Indian culture. Also, the level of intermingling you see in Indian culture is unparalleled anywhere in the world. Have you travelled in Indian trains. In mere 6 hour journeys, people get bonded to each other sharing food and concerns.

  • @gamerrex5940

    @gamerrex5940

    Жыл бұрын

    Agreed!

  • @rinkiek3917

    @rinkiek3917

    Жыл бұрын

    @@ritanshusingh8064 That's whati'm saying. The fact that you can expect people to be more close to one another in the indian culture (making them less likely to be extremely violent) to a more western culture that promotes being indifferent and individuality (making the assaults more impersonal and extreme) are thr kinds of stuff numbers wont tell you. You'll have to live in India and the west in order to know these kinds of information.

  • @Arceaus98
    @Arceaus98 Жыл бұрын

    2:58 That "Does this sound familiar" honest to God sounded like you could put it in a movie as a villain's line somewhere. That inflection was unsettling lol

  • @skeetsmcgrew3282

    @skeetsmcgrew3282

    Жыл бұрын

    That's the beginning of a speech that ends in "The only solution is to eliminate the problem. Permanently."

  • @Imperiused
    @Imperiused Жыл бұрын

    This has really been an incredible series. I will ALWAYS recommend it anyone who'll listen!

  • @smileyp4535

    @smileyp4535

    Жыл бұрын

    Vsauce 2?

  • @antagonisticalex401

    @antagonisticalex401

    11 ай бұрын

    ​@@smileyp4535No. The series of Crime Analysis using Data Science.

  • @maninlove
    @maninlove Жыл бұрын

    As younger brother in Indian family, i can confirm waving your hand is definitely punching.

  • @user-vy5uy9fo8p
    @user-vy5uy9fo8p Жыл бұрын

    Till date I have never heard of a bank robbery in India and most of our banks have little to no security.

  • @maka6134

    @maka6134

    Жыл бұрын

    When you type bank robbery in india the indiatimes alone gives you 800 results of bank robberies. They definitely happen a lot.

  • @flyingdragon6275

    @flyingdragon6275

    Жыл бұрын

    but Banks have been hacked and Defulted lol

  • @user-vy5uy9fo8p

    @user-vy5uy9fo8p

    Жыл бұрын

    @@maka6134 Its not robbery but thieves

  • @maka6134

    @maka6134

    Жыл бұрын

    What do you mean? Thieves commit robbery

  • @srirampatnaik9164

    @srirampatnaik9164

    Жыл бұрын

    @@maka6134 I've heard of ATM robberies, but never a full on bank robbery.

  • @archiem654
    @archiem654 Жыл бұрын

    In india, if an assault happen, you go to their parents and they beat their son/daughter themselves to make you feel compensated. And not let the issue escalate. Orrr the two clans/families/communities gather to discuss. If one clan is lesser influential in any way, they have to compromise. 😥

  • @Your_spanish_el_amigo

    @Your_spanish_el_amigo

    Жыл бұрын

    Remindes me of village quarrels 😹

  • @archiem654

    @archiem654

    Жыл бұрын

    @@Your_spanish_el_amigo yep thats how it is solved in here. It usually becomes an issue of community. People are reporting crimes more and more now. But few years back (sometimes even now) ... people even compromised over murders with compensation decided by elders. But they wouldn't report it to police.

  • @zesky6654

    @zesky6654

    Жыл бұрын

    That basically clan based justice. It's more or less the same everywhere that doesn't have proper policing.

  • @archiem654

    @archiem654

    Жыл бұрын

    @@zesky6654 yeah... point is its still going on in India. In here it becomes an issue of caste - community. Sometimes it works, as it doesnt let conflicts escalate and gives quick closure. But majority of the times, its power play. The community/family that is more influential wins.

  • @VARMOT123

    @VARMOT123

    Жыл бұрын

    @@zesky6654 not really . There isn't much crime in Asian countries per capita as many people think there is

  • @arthurmorgan8638
    @arthurmorgan8638 Жыл бұрын

    I as an Estonian can agree that our country is one of the safest countries in the world but has high death rates to suicides and traffic accidents

  • @ritupandey2324

    @ritupandey2324

    Жыл бұрын

    I don't feel like I would say traffic accidents safe

  • @shiva4774

    @shiva4774

    Жыл бұрын

    Learn to drive

  • @aruncv1373

    @aruncv1373

    Жыл бұрын

    Why suicides and accidents?

  • @dekumarademosater2762

    @dekumarademosater2762

    Жыл бұрын

    @@aruncv1373 ethanol

  • @Butunmallick7851

    @Butunmallick7851

    Жыл бұрын

    How is it safe when people commit suicides🤣

  • @rakeshbarman3486
    @rakeshbarman3486 Жыл бұрын

    I didn't knew that a fist fights can count under real crime ,cuz here nobody goes to police for a fight

  • @rahulpal2490
    @rahulpal2490 Жыл бұрын

    We have dance battles in India, when ever we fight. So if you see a huge crowd following a horse with a man on top, understand. He is the reason for their anger.

  • @death_parade

    @death_parade

    Жыл бұрын

    WTF? What are you making people believe a marriage procession is lol?

  • @shiva4774

    @shiva4774

    Жыл бұрын

    Guys don't belive him. He is misleading u into thinking a marriage procession as fight 😂

  • @chromatron5230

    @chromatron5230

    Жыл бұрын

    🤣🤣

  • @vorrdegard2176

    @vorrdegard2176

    Жыл бұрын

    As an Indian 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂 Your comment is gold

  • @dekumarademosater2762

    @dekumarademosater2762

    Жыл бұрын

    @@shiva4774 perhaps, eventually?

  • @RetroBerner
    @RetroBerner Жыл бұрын

    Crime seems to thrive when people are desperate, but if despair is all you see all around you it may have less of an impact than if you see your peers doing well, while you are struggling.

  • @fjb4932

    @fjb4932

    Жыл бұрын

    Criminals are Not desperate. Unless you mean desperate to avoid honest work ? . . . - - - . . .

  • @TrippyTimesTwo

    @TrippyTimesTwo

    Жыл бұрын

    @@fjb4932 I mean, a lot of criminals ARE desperate. If someone resorts to crime to survive (and I specify survive, not to further their own lot in life, but to get food for tomorrow) odds are they lack the prerequisites for honest work, be it education or transport or otherwise, and thus are forced into crime just to get by.

  • @JohnAnderson-fj2rl

    @JohnAnderson-fj2rl

    Жыл бұрын

    No, desperation has very little to do with it. Genetic coding on the other hand...

  • @JohnAnderson-fj2rl

    @JohnAnderson-fj2rl

    Жыл бұрын

    @13. Ghani Ziyad Sagiansyah Yes, some people are born with certain traits, (higher production of testosterone, lower than average iq, for instance) or lack of thereof (poor ability to defer gratification, high impulsivity, for example) that predispose them towards criminality. Environmental factors can exacerbate the predisposition, I don't deny that.

  • @thatdamncrow9197

    @thatdamncrow9197

    Жыл бұрын

    @@JohnAnderson-fj2rl except IQ has long been proven unreliable And the childhood is much more important then any of the biological factors You just want to think of yourself as superior The reality is the majority of criminals had poor childhoods whether they lacked 1 parent or were neglected Others were abused physically, mentally, or even sexually There is a reason why serial killers were 25x more likely to have experienced psychological abuse as a child compared to the average population

  • @ad2050
    @ad2050 Жыл бұрын

    I'm an Indian living in Glasgow. Damn 😂 I love both India and Scotland so this was an interesting video. Having lived in Mumbai and Glasgow, I can 100% say that Mumbai is safer though.

  • @shantanubbhosale

    @shantanubbhosale

    Жыл бұрын

    after 26/11, the amount of police personnel here has gone up crazy, it could be the reason

  • @ad2050

    @ad2050

    Жыл бұрын

    @@shantanubbhosale Yeah that maybe a factor but generally after 2000s it's been safe... I think in the 90s Mumbai was much more dangerous.

  • @salientsolution5436

    @salientsolution5436

    Жыл бұрын

    In all fairness though, Glasgow (outside the city centre) has always been on the edge of safe and unsafe. I'd say other Scottish cities are some of the safest in the world; Edinburgh, Aberdeen, Dundee etc.

  • @ad2050

    @ad2050

    Жыл бұрын

    @@salientsolution5436 True. Edinburgh and Aberdeen are pretty safe 👍

  • @takeshikovach5165

    @takeshikovach5165

    Жыл бұрын

    That is completely a lie. You haven't lived in Glasgow. Crime in Mumbai is definitely higher. It gets reported, but doesn't show up in stats.

  • @cjfthistle
    @cjfthistle Жыл бұрын

    Awful bold of you not to ship that maths box to us in Scotland, KEVIN * Shakes fist menacingly *

  • @NiyumiGoldpetal
    @NiyumiGoldpetal Жыл бұрын

    I think the largest issue is both that we have too much and not enough data to actually figure things out. Biases, inaccurate data, not having the right variables, it's all still way too complex for humans to wrap their head around, and wrap it correctly. And even other issues like the types of people who run those countries could be a factor, as they don't see a problem and this don't make it known. There's also people who are likely to end up commiting crimes as a part of their nature (psychopaths, sociopaths) and others who might not commit crimes if we had enough help (people with anger issues). Too many variables, too many biases, and too much data all leads to tunnel visioning on one thing that might not even be important. And they might even be missing the forest for the tree.

  • @horizonkage

    @horizonkage

    Жыл бұрын

    today, as writing this comment it's -4C in Estonia. we have enough data. it's to cold to fight in the street.

  • @xSkyWeix

    @xSkyWeix

    Жыл бұрын

    I disagree. This is the nature of complex systems. Too much chaos make predicting beyond a certain point impossible. You can check chaos theory for more details.

  • @emmafountain2059

    @emmafountain2059

    Жыл бұрын

    This is why we should just feed all of the data we have into an ai and let it give suggestions. No bias and it doesn’t get tunnel visioned! (Im only half joking)

  • @me3333
    @me3333 Жыл бұрын

    As a Hoosier (Lives in Indiana) I can tell you that a lot of crime here doesn't get reported. More often than not the police make things worse for both parties so unless it's murder or something else super serious it's almost always better to leave them out of it and figure it out on your own. The thing to remember is that most of the time the police are there to make a report, it's not like they can prevent a crime that's already happened.

  • @notyourmangoladka

    @notyourmangoladka

    Жыл бұрын

    I thought it was only Indian thought process!!

  • @alexanderphilip1809

    @alexanderphilip1809

    Жыл бұрын

    @@notyourmangoladka its a conservative approach in societies with dysfunctional judicial and/or law enforcement systems. In India as well as apparently Indiana.

  • @KingsleyPlays
    @KingsleyPlays Жыл бұрын

    Loved your mind blow series back in the day. hope to see a comeback in the future!

  • @pruthvirajshinde9991
    @pruthvirajshinde9991 Жыл бұрын

    I was reading about R*pe rates and punishments the other day ( because a friend from the US told me that India is like the r*pe capital of the world ) and heres the math i did based on the data i gathered. USA reported around 145000 cases last year INDIA reported 31000 Now i considered how many cases are unreported USA : i found data suggesting between 35-60% unreported cases ( i am considering the 47.5 as it's right in the middle ) INDIA : data suggested between 70-85% , so 77.5% . Final values USA : 276190 cases theoretically. INDIA : 137777 cases theoretically . Do what you want with that information , it was just something i did cause i was bored and percentages seemed fun to solve at the time.

  • @gamerrex5940

    @gamerrex5940

    Жыл бұрын

    Interesting.

  • @RahulRajput-do6di

    @RahulRajput-do6di

    Жыл бұрын

    If you calculate it furthur based on population (cases per 1 million), you will be surprised.

  • @pruthvirajshinde9991

    @pruthvirajshinde9991

    Жыл бұрын

    @@RahulRajput-do6di yea the US only has about 330 million people , so close to 850 cases per million

  • @Khofax
    @Khofax Жыл бұрын

    It’s always refreshing to hear the importance of admitting we don’t know, claiming that there is an absolute answer to anything is just looking for trouble especially in science

  • @bluestonecreeper720
    @bluestonecreeper720 Жыл бұрын

    Absolutely love this series!

  • @BicycleFunk
    @BicycleFunk Жыл бұрын

    Solid video Kevin! Knowing that you don't know is the most important knowledge one can have.

  • @MikeSimoneLV
    @MikeSimoneLV Жыл бұрын

    I love how you manage to make learning about statistics enjoyable and consumable. Thank you for all that you do!

  • @arnavcarpenter4063
    @arnavcarpenter4063 Жыл бұрын

    In India, the requirements are huge, but the resources are scares, thus, we have enough of nothing, we NEED more of everything. Therefore, our judiciary and police is overworked, they don't have time for things like a person slapped another. Actually people don't even go to the police for such things.

  • @aviralsood8141
    @aviralsood8141 Жыл бұрын

    It is honestly scary knowing how much of the public's thoughts can be influenced by a handful of reporters overplaying the shaky results of an amiguous scientific paper. This is where it is so important for there to be science communicators in the world who act as a bridge between the research and the public.

  • @DoglinsShadow
    @DoglinsShadow Жыл бұрын

    Excellent video! Loving this math series where you teach us practical application and mistakes of math. So fascinating and useful to apply.

  • @lewisw1587
    @lewisw1587 Жыл бұрын

    The crime mathematics videos you are making are so good!

  • @abbiearcher4716
    @abbiearcher4716 Жыл бұрын

    Scotland has a large Indian community. Are Scottish Indians basically the Hardest Hardmen on Earth?

  • @MuzikBike

    @MuzikBike

    Жыл бұрын

    If so I'm an outlier

  • @TargetRenegade

    @TargetRenegade

    Жыл бұрын

    No such thing as a 'Scottish Indian'. The only true Scots are White.

  • @horizonkage

    @horizonkage

    Жыл бұрын

    no it really doesn't. Scotland is over 99% white.

  • @robbofastora

    @robbofastora

    Жыл бұрын

    @@TargetRenegade I'm Scottish. If you're born in Scotland, you're Scottish. People of Indian descent who were born here, are also Scottish and are welcome here.

  • @TargetRenegade

    @TargetRenegade

    Жыл бұрын

    @@robbofastora lol. No. A dog born in a stable doesn't make it a horse.

  • @rushikeshsarap1604
    @rushikeshsarap1604 Жыл бұрын

    So saying that India is not a safe location for women to travel, is false too right? Cause the international media has consistently commented on India in a negative way due to these statistics.

  • @photosynth359

    @photosynth359

    Жыл бұрын

    It is, unfortunately that kind of news sells in the west because it feeds into the inherent biases of the western society and makes the average joe feel good about themselves. To them it reads "savage brown man country is predatory, if only they were intelligent enough to be like us"

  • @sliwka621

    @sliwka621

    9 ай бұрын

    ​@@photosynth359So the truth sells? Nice self-own.

  • @mauryanempire7503

    @mauryanempire7503

    2 ай бұрын

    Not due to statistics as statistics show opposite result

  • @bruinflight1
    @bruinflight1 Жыл бұрын

    Kevin, you are doing the most important work on youtube today. Thank you.

  • @necropolis6052
    @necropolis6052 Жыл бұрын

    " Now we measure everything and most of our measurement is wrong ", well that feels optimistic 😅

  • @sicko_the_ew
    @sicko_the_ew Жыл бұрын

    The police return the kind of statistics that make them look as good as possible. Or corrupt police stations do. I've attended a community policing forum in a small town in which the crime was completely out of control (the extreme case being 15 men armed with military assault rifles attacking a large holiday resort full of kids with laptops and phones, and spending a long enough time there - in broad daylight - to collect most of these), and being told by the officer designated to attend the meeting that the station had a problem with not being allocated vehicles "because it was a low crime area". According to the statistics they reported. Only. Another incident I recall was a cash in transit hijacking between towns, where the gang set up a road block at the site where they were robbing the van, and went from car to car collecting wallets and phones. It was common for those committing e.g. home invasions to take their time (time enough to try out a bit of sadism on the people whose homes were being invaded, often.) There was a guy who pulled up at the parking lot of a shopping centre, at night, at a busy pub (with things like fast food outlets next door), and someone just walked up to his door, using a shoot first, don't ask questions later approach. Shot him dead at point blank range. Dragged out his body, threw it on the ground. Drove off. Low crime area. I remember hearing lots of automatic fire just across the main road one night. Turns out it was an ambush of some tourists coming home from a restaurant meal. Log in the road, and they decided to rather try to just drive over it. They succeeded, and then the perps opened up on auto. Security company got there before the police (if the police even got there at all). The rumours were that some of the gangs were run by policemen. Maybe that was just drawing too many conclusions from the general police inaction in the area. My brother actually ended up in a bit of a "firing in the dark firefight" one night. Thugs tried to smash their way into the cottage of two women. These locked themselves into the kitchen, called for help, and my brother responded wearing just his underpants. Thugs shot at him, he shot at them. Wife was on the phone to the cops. Cops said they could "only respond to urgent calls". She put the receiver out the window to better pick up the sound of the shooting. To their credit, after that they sent a van. It's a ten minute journey. They took half an hour. Perps were gone by the time they got there. So my brother asks them to bring in the dog unit. Hot trail. Perfect chance to track them down. But "they can only be spared for serious cases" ... (And maybe can't be spared to hunt down off duty policemen moonlighting for the mob.) They eventually realized they would have to sort out the crime problem themselves. It really is a low crime area, now. (It just took a bit of patrolling and responding, and one or two successful apprehensions to put a stop to the crime. Not something you really want to do at the end of a day's work, but what can you do if the police aren't interested, and the politicians are not interested in making them be interested?) Anyway, there's a rather pathological case of the crime stats being a lie. One thing that's a reasonably good measure of at least the violent crime side of things is the murder rate. Its difficult to hide the murders (there are inquests for unnatural deaths, so it's not just a police officer's call what to describe the crime as.) Nationally we (South Africa) have unfortunately returned to an increasing murder rate. I'm told it's gone up to 70 people murdered every day, again. You could call it a result of poverty if you like, but then that leaves open the question of why Malawi (so much poorer) is so much less violent. Part of it is gangster politicians. My mother's municipal ward had to have a reelection after their new counsellor was murdered the other day, and apparently there's been a resurgence of these cases. Part of it is just the police not doing their job, too.

  • @SgtSupaman

    @SgtSupaman

    Жыл бұрын

    When a metric becomes a goal, it ceases to be a good metric.

  • @kcufhctib204

    @kcufhctib204

    Жыл бұрын

    South Africa... say no more literally every other african country has lower crime rates than South Africa.

  • @xiaohuli27
    @xiaohuli27 Жыл бұрын

    One of the problems with scotland is that theres almost no consequence for those who assault others. I was assaulted by 2 people in Edinburgh years ago with 5+ witnesses and both assaulters got community service which they managed to get out of.

  • @retrogiftsuk4812

    @retrogiftsuk4812

    Жыл бұрын

    Really sorry to hear that. I think one of the problems is that violence is often seen as OK from a young age. Mothers will let boys fight ("scrap") as long as no-one gets hurt (and no girl gets hit). "Boys will be boys" they say (and "don't hit girls" or "don't hit your sister"). You have to teach children not to lie and to share (children naturally lie and snatch toys from each other). When parents don't have a zero tolerance to violence is it a surprise that kids grow up using violence to deal with their emotions and grievances.

  • @popcornsniper

    @popcornsniper

    Жыл бұрын

    @@retrogiftsuk4812 Give them cold showers once they get 5 years old. To girls as well. I was shocked at how violent british people are.

  • @ericward284
    @ericward284 Жыл бұрын

    Ya, I think people are just going to turn this video into "any crime statistic I don't like is absolutely untrue!"

  • @skeetsmcgrew3282

    @skeetsmcgrew3282

    Жыл бұрын

    As opposed to "Any crime statistic I do like is absolutely true."

  • @zesky6654

    @zesky6654

    Жыл бұрын

    @@skeetsmcgrew3282 The former is better by a long mile.

  • @pill0ck318
    @pill0ck318 Жыл бұрын

    "Most of our measurements are wrong" Immediately hit the like button. Was literally the first thing I learned at university

  • @jdblack7355

    @jdblack7355

    Жыл бұрын

    And then they proceeded to tell you a bunch of lies lol jk hope your day is well.

  • @HughGort

    @HughGort

    Жыл бұрын

    My condolences.

  • @prizrak-br3332

    @prizrak-br3332

    Жыл бұрын

    @@jdblack7355 Depending on where he attended university this is probably true.

  • @jasper7658
    @jasper7658 Жыл бұрын

    The reason Estonian alcohol consumption is that high, is because alot of Finnish people, who on average earn much more than Estonians, come to Estonia to buy cheap alcohol in mass. Although im not denying the fact that Estonians drink more alcohol than healthy.

  • @NickRoman

    @NickRoman

    Жыл бұрын

    And so the number they are trying to understand itself is wrong because of all of these complications that people don't understand.

  • @pranavsetpal
    @pranavsetpal Жыл бұрын

    I loved the 'Indians handle fist-shaking problems themselves" line, lmao

  • @e1lg537
    @e1lg537 Жыл бұрын

    Thye first study mentioned actually compared the trend of crime rate over a period of time. While I agree with you on the comparisons based on singular probabilities, trend comparisons are known to be extremely accurate when it comes to correlation. Many analysts agree that increased levels of lead was actually a very major factor in deciding the trend that crime rate followed the last few decades.

  • @cx24venezuela

    @cx24venezuela

    Жыл бұрын

    Maybe lead don't affect crime. But there are better numbers about how it affect the health

  • @alibobdagreat2834
    @alibobdagreat2834 Жыл бұрын

    I’m Scottish and I can confirm

  • @_ruted

    @_ruted

    Жыл бұрын

    I'm Indian and I can confirm

  • @jakemarshall360

    @jakemarshall360

    Жыл бұрын

    Say that again and I'll batter you! Jks

  • @prakhar9473

    @prakhar9473

    Жыл бұрын

    Im scotish indian and i unconfirm

  • @benjaminanderson1014

    @benjaminanderson1014

    Жыл бұрын

    I'm neither Scottish nor Indian and I reconfirm

  • @theguywhostoleyourcookies

    @theguywhostoleyourcookies

    Жыл бұрын

    I'm Confirm and I can scottish

  • @sauhaardcaushic782
    @sauhaardcaushic782 Жыл бұрын

    It bothers me why everytime we go in real depth of something we're always left with "we know nothing". The more deep you go the more far away the bottom seems to be. Do you have any thought on this?

  • @billlong9313

    @billlong9313

    Жыл бұрын

    For what it's worth, I found plenty of food for thought in a book published in 2017: "The Knowledge Illusion: Why We Never Think Alone" by Steven Sloman and Philip Fernbach.

  • @krishna.vineet
    @krishna.vineet Жыл бұрын

    For India, the factor "Culture" is also in presence

  • @archkral
    @archkral Жыл бұрын

    Amazing video! Thank you for making it :)

  • @ADITYAKUMAR-mb5ht
    @ADITYAKUMAR-mb5ht Жыл бұрын

    I am 26 year old and i have never ever seen two strangers are fighting with punches ...but there is a very popular statement in india that if two womens (public transport) have sitted very close to each other for more than 30 minutes than it will ve very very rare that they will not start talking 😅, Share of punches usually takes place with known persons like between between brothers or friend's, But small verbal war is very common in india (and i don't think peoples in india take it seriously and if you are a foreigner than you need to know this fact

  • @incom6897

    @incom6897

    Жыл бұрын

    I see many people abusing each other but i also not see fighing people

  • @jirachi-wishmaker9242
    @jirachi-wishmaker9242 Жыл бұрын

    Should've included iceland(where murderer, pdf files gets their 'honor restrored' , can pursue their dreams of becoming doctor, lawyer,etc.) Finland(one of the nation with least number of its citizens being jailed) Denmark with it 'life' imprisonment (of 12 yrs)

  • @danialrafid

    @danialrafid

    Жыл бұрын

    It's not gonna get them more immigrants, if that's the point of the 'lax laws

  • @Lerner7
    @Lerner7 Жыл бұрын

    भारत में पोलिस और कोर्ट के चक्करों में कोई नही पड़ना चाहता इसलिए यहां जिसके पास जितनी पावर हे उसकी ही धाक रहती है।

  • @abhyudayanerwat8558

    @abhyudayanerwat8558

    Жыл бұрын

    ++this. Criminal Justice system is a major factor to be incorporated in these studies.

  • @opaio9
    @opaio9 Жыл бұрын

    Fantastic Series!

  • @codebitcookie8053
    @codebitcookie8053 Жыл бұрын

    One of your best videos. Keep it up!

  • @MadhusudanSinha
    @MadhusudanSinha Жыл бұрын

    Between Veritasium and Vsause2, I am confused if the lead caused those crimes or not. Both of their arguments are convincing.

  • @U20E0

    @U20E0

    Жыл бұрын

    Vsauce2 did technically not support either theory

  • @Alkis05

    @Alkis05

    Жыл бұрын

    @@U20E0 You will never find a scientist saying that lead doesn't lead to rise in criminal indicators. You can't prove a negative. The burden to prove that lead causes rise in crime is on those that makes the assertion. By saying that no correlation can be found, Kevin is saying that those who made the assertion didn't meet their burden of proof. That the evidence doesn't point to it being a thing.

  • @RiannaPeterson

    @RiannaPeterson

    Жыл бұрын

    ?

  • @leorohrba8623
    @leorohrba8623 Жыл бұрын

    Would love to get the math box down here in Brazil!

  • @Regularcael
    @Regularcael Жыл бұрын

    i havent watched one of your vids in a while, this is a good one

  • @danhonks6264
    @danhonks6264 Жыл бұрын

    This is an excellent video, Kevin

  • @devilback8871
    @devilback8871 Жыл бұрын

    I had always thought that these surveys dont show the reality on the ground

  • @emypetcu
    @emypetcu Жыл бұрын

    Well, Willy is more violent than Apu ... Also you just made an enemy for life

  • @ShadowSlith789
    @ShadowSlith789 Жыл бұрын

    Damn we really do be living in a society

  • @rijulduggal5584
    @rijulduggal5584 Жыл бұрын

    3:19 : do you know or have children? me : i AM the child

  • @jaysnehpandey7089

    @jaysnehpandey7089

    Жыл бұрын

    For real

  • @HABA300
    @HABA300 Жыл бұрын

    Love the ending!!

  • @Strash_
    @Strash_ Жыл бұрын

    heh....Always a pleasure to see my country of Estonia get mentioned or compared ^^

  • @cjfthistle

    @cjfthistle

    Жыл бұрын

    I can tell you that Scotland thinks you’re cool! Every time I go to a conference about my job, we get told how Estonia is better than us 😂

  • @Strash_

    @Strash_

    Жыл бұрын

    @@cjfthistle huh...cool.... Well dont you worry Estonians thinks Scotland is cool! My sisters literally been dating a scotsman for an year now xD

  • @shiva4774

    @shiva4774

    Жыл бұрын

    I don't even know where ur country is. 🙁

  • @jirachi-wishmaker9242

    @jirachi-wishmaker9242

    Жыл бұрын

    @@shiva4774 Eastern Europe

  • @MrGelliantGutfright
    @MrGelliantGutfright Жыл бұрын

    Scottish people have never destroyed half of Leicester because they lost a cricket match.

  • @thepervysageofmountmyoboku9093

    @thepervysageofmountmyoboku9093

    Жыл бұрын

    yeah, they were pakistanis

  • @bryangoodwin6579
    @bryangoodwin6579 Жыл бұрын

    I’m 38 years old and I have been to counseling 4 times in my whole life. All those therapy sessions taught me was to look at myself and ask why whatever was happening is happening. And every time I would dig deep enough and find that reason.

  • @dhillaz

    @dhillaz

    Жыл бұрын

    Did it cause you to commit more crimes than your un-counseled counterpart of same age, IQ and social status?

  • @anentiresleeveoforeos2087

    @anentiresleeveoforeos2087

    Жыл бұрын

    you are mentally ill because you drink tap water and estrogen milk

  • @Bundpataka

    @Bundpataka

    Жыл бұрын

    @@dhillaz we don’t know what type of counseling the kids got, or if it was even a statistical fluke. The whole point of the video is how we can’t draw strong social conclusions from statistical data many times

  • @bryangoodwin6579

    @bryangoodwin6579

    Жыл бұрын

    @@dhillaz I don't have that data. Besides, my point is people know the reason they do the things they do if they look back far enough.

  • @tubester358

    @tubester358

    Жыл бұрын

    @@bryangoodwin6579 agreed, but usually it takes a specific set of questions to lead you to those answers and I suppose that's what therapists should be good at, but I fear you can also easily gaslight people that way if they believe it follows a clear line of logic. E.g. a therapist could manipulate a whole group of people to believing something about their nature that they otherwise wouldn't think about and cause them to act a certain way.

  • @neeld66
    @neeld66 Жыл бұрын

    Police is very corrupt in India and they wouldn't even register a complaint for things they consider petty. Many times people with genuines grievances have to go to war with police just to get them to register a complaint. Most matters are solved by people themselves. It's one of the reasons the stats are so low. But I also know that India is not anymore dangerous to live in than any average large sized country. Overall, the people are very kind and peaceful.

  • @VARMOT123

    @VARMOT123

    Жыл бұрын

    Not anymore corrupt than vast majority of the countries . Police are pretty corrupt in most countries

  • @neeld66

    @neeld66

    Жыл бұрын

    @@VARMOT123 can't disagree

  • @yugmathakkar4023

    @yugmathakkar4023

    Жыл бұрын

    It's not even about corruption to be fair. We have a very understaffed, underpaid and overworked police force and they would rather you settle non-serious issues like regular assault among yourselves, because they have a billion more violent crimes to focus on. We need more police force with a decent salary for this to stop.

  • @incom6897

    @incom6897

    Жыл бұрын

    I think indian police most stereotypical in world because of bollywood

  • @djphlange
    @djphlange Жыл бұрын

    why is it so hard to imagine that scots are rougher, harsher and tend to settle things with fists ? LOL it would be the same with the irish like when i picture England/UK, thats what i imagine , a lot of it is culture. there isnt much of a fighting culture in india, like street fist fighting, alcohol plays a part but not the leading role

  • @haneylondhe6697
    @haneylondhe6697 Жыл бұрын

    In India Successful criminal is in politics and fail criminal is in jail

  • @Exhora
    @Exhora Жыл бұрын

    I will be waiting for the math box to beade available to Brazil. This would be great to be used on classes.

  • @creekchub9714
    @creekchub9714 Жыл бұрын

    That math box looks awesome, I wish I had that when I was a kid

  • @jorgecoelho4051
    @jorgecoelho4051 Жыл бұрын

    I feel robbed of reason and time after this...

  • @ashishtiwari1912
    @ashishtiwari1912 Жыл бұрын

    Crime underreporting happens in most countries and there is no way to track each and every crime. Here in India, the police doesn't registers the complaint that easily. I would say corruption is a big problem among the police here. For a country as big as ours with such a big population, I think it is reasonably safe to live here except few regions that have a higher average crime rate than the rest of the country. In my 35+ years, I haven't seen people in rough street fights or anything. Some arguments and that is all about it.

  • @hippocampussashimi7819
    @hippocampussashimi7819 Жыл бұрын

    This video was a good reminder to get back to reading "Seeing Like a State" and recommend it to others here, I guess? A different focus than this video though, more on the value of collecting such statistics and the effects societal planners have by desiring and insisting upon such statistics, I suppose.

  • @WWIflyingace62
    @WWIflyingace62 Жыл бұрын

    I want to see a video on gun crime statistics and how they are manipulated to be either for or against gun control. Does gun control prevent violent shootings? Do loose gun laws engender more shootings?

  • @Bundpataka

    @Bundpataka

    Жыл бұрын

    The problem with US gun control laws is we don’t know how effective they can actually be, because in the US, they’re almost all at local levels, so anyone could leave a strict jurisdiction and get a gun in a lax jurisdiction. This has led to stuff like Chicago having strict gun control laws, but gang members being able to get illegal guns extremely easily, and thus commit gun violence

  • @nickchavez720

    @nickchavez720

    Жыл бұрын

    Does gun control inherently prevent gun control, not necessarily as there are pleanty of examples in the US where gun control is high but there is high gun crime still high as well. Like wise there there are places where gun control is loose but gun crime is low. And where you point to where gun crime is low and there is high gun control they were areas where gun crime was never that high to begin with. Then we can complicate it further by breaking down how criminals get guns, and most reported info suggests they were obtained illegally. So if we are trying to say that gun control has a direct affect on gun crime there is no data that really supports that.

  • @Daniel-vu7pi
    @Daniel-vu7pi Жыл бұрын

    This video is just a great reminder that correlation does not equal causation. Science isn't about simply observing and somehow "extracting" knowledge from observation; that's inductivism and it's false. Science is about explanation; an account of what is out there in reality, how it behaves and how it interacts with other stuff. This is true not just of mathematics and the physical sciences, but of all scientific inquiry in general and holds no matter what you're studying. Unless you're actually testing (i.e. trying to falsify) an idea/hypothesis, making an observation is useless. Anyone interested should read David Deutsch's "The Beginning of Infinity" =)

  • @adamplace1414
    @adamplace1414 Жыл бұрын

    I'm more and more convinced that sociologists just make it up as they go. Trying to ascribe a reason to group behavior that's in fact driven by individual motivations seems foolhardy.

  • @Bundpataka

    @Bundpataka

    Жыл бұрын

    Individual motivations are molded by societal conditions

  • @Gabriel2.0
    @Gabriel2.09 ай бұрын

    I studied statistics as a part of my engineering diploma and imediately I've realised that the entire field is fundamently impossible to trust. I can come with conclusive and supporting data for any conclusion I want to have and for any point I want to prove. which I actually did to prove my teacher wrong - with stats about the field of statistics.

  • @user-hq8wm8giyujcg
    @user-hq8wm8giyujcg Жыл бұрын

    if u want the crimes to be low, encourage individualistic education and independence

  • @Nicole-pt4bx
    @Nicole-pt4bx Жыл бұрын

    WHOA!! What a video!! Kevin, I hadn't seen you videos in a while but I'm SO GLAD I clicked this one! I feel as if my brain rebooted, I feel like we might communicate in a very similar way internally so the way you led the rabbit hole felt really organic and well paced. Playlisting this and sharing on all my circles 😊

  • @undefined6947
    @undefined6947 Жыл бұрын

    The only way to learn on purpose is by first accepting that you don't yet know. Seems obvious, but really it's a game changer when unrelentingly applying it to everything you can.

  • @tenou213
    @tenou213 Жыл бұрын

    The thing with moral statistics is that tracking a thing is better than just not tracking it and going "welp, people are just different and life is hard!" Issuing policies based on numbers is just more reasonable in a macro sense because basis is easily judged and can be further modified based on updated numbers and studies. Issuing policies because enough of your voter base yelled at you isn't all that great in the current era of misinformation and doesn't build up into a more productive result..

  • @dd-uf9nw
    @dd-uf9nw Жыл бұрын

    How it works in india i will give an example here- There was a new neighbour in our locality and he was building his house(in rural india buying well furnished houses is still not a norm) and after some day he started furthering his house's boundary to the road and my father confronted him that you can't build anything on public property so he said you can do it too, nobody is stoping you. My father clearly told me that "if he(neighbour) don't stop just Demolish the boundary wall and pillars with a hammer" . Then someone suggested my father to call the police instead of doing it by yourself. The police came after some hours that they suggested my father and the neighbour that you two guys are educated and smart, instead of filing FIR(first information report) you can settle this by talking to each other. By luck my father and neighbour's brother were school mates and at the end both party decided that neighbor wouldn't futher his house's boundary but can stretch few inches of his house's terrace further. Edit: please don't mind grammatical errors and spelling mistakes.

  • @DetectiveJones
    @DetectiveJones Жыл бұрын

    Crime stats are wild, I was looking at some with my friend and found out that are rather peaceful town we've lived in for most of our lives, had more crime rate than many parts of Brazil, the middle east, and certain parts of Africa, notorious cities like Chicago, Detroit, New York, basically where the crime rate is actually high.

  • @greebfewatani

    @greebfewatani

    Жыл бұрын

    I don't know about other places you mentioned but middle east away from politically war torn regions is not that scary for the residents. The murder rate is pretty low too due to social restrains. For petty crimes and assaults, undereporting maybe the reason for the misleading data.

  • @Anonymimus
    @Anonymimus Жыл бұрын

    You really should make follow-up video with @Veritasium on this one, I think. As he recently made a video where he talked about how lead was responsible for causing more crimes.

  • @abdelrhmanhashem3256
    @abdelrhmanhashem3256 Жыл бұрын

    dude i was waiting for this episode.

  • @EXPLORADVEN
    @EXPLORADVEN Жыл бұрын

    👌👌👌 Knowing that we don't know is the ONLY place to start knowing. Otherwise Knowing just ends & ONLY rotting starts.

  • @Flow86767
    @Flow86767 Жыл бұрын

    I want to see 300 Scottish fighting 300 Indians in a inflated boat fight 😮

  • @smartbuys3118

    @smartbuys3118

    Жыл бұрын

    We Indians would let the Scotts fight among themselves,then the last Scottish man left would suffer a heart attack by the view of 300 men shaking their fists at him🤔🤔

  • @Your_spanish_el_amigo

    @Your_spanish_el_amigo

    Жыл бұрын

    @@smartbuys3118 😹😹😹

  • @pahadkivadiyose6978

    @pahadkivadiyose6978

    Жыл бұрын

    @@smartbuys3118 Based

  • @padwock2294
    @padwock2294 Жыл бұрын

    Brilliant video and then some. Lord bless. The only thing we can really do in terms of crime statistics with what we have is draw inferences and educated guesses off of the visible correlations between their timing/location and what is around them but it's so so SO important to always look at your "result" (inference) with a grain, or perhaps a whole handful of salt knowing you have no proof you had it right until you see change (and even then, it could be coincidence!) For an example I love (regardless out what any viewer may think of the subjects matter) that is, at least to me a fascinating hypothesis have a brief read of the "1972 Rockefeller Commission"/the "Donohue-Levitt hypothesis" looking at a possible correlation between crime rates dropping 18-24 years after abortion became much more accessible for citizens of the United states following Roe V Wade's precedent being set with the span of 18 to 24 years being set as this was the most common age demographic for criminals! It's a perfect example where no matter what it would be absurd to say "yes this one thing caused all of this undoubtedly" due to the vast number of other social changes that occurred throughout the period but also difficult to discredit entirely saying "no it had no impact at all!" because I mean, that's certainly a correlation that couldn't be proven to be involved without a magic crystal ball is just WAY too reasonable of an explanation to disregard entirely. As it stands, best way we can interpret crime statistics is on a balance of probabilities/it best standing to reason that one thing MAY correlate to another, try changing it and see what happens rather than only adjusting things when they are deemed to be associated beyond a reasonable doubt. Hope someone found my rant even half as interesting as I was writing it!

  • @hoovi1112
    @hoovi1112 Жыл бұрын

    input_1 = input("Insert a number here ----> ").lower() input_2 = input("Insert a number here ----> ").lower() print("The result when adding is..", float(input_1) + float(input_2)) print("The result when subtracting is..", float(input_1) - float(input_2)) print("The result when multiplying is..", float(input_1) * float(input_2)) print("The result when dividing is..", float(input_1) / float(input_2))

  • @DuchessandHammer
    @DuchessandHammer Жыл бұрын

    They are great statistics for passing laws and policies especially when those pushing the policies know they are not entirely true.

  • @50shadesofbrown25
    @50shadesofbrown25 Жыл бұрын

    Majority of times Crimes happen because of 'unhappiness', and happiness usually depends on ease of living, freedom etc. Take for example Finland, It's no 1 on the world happiness index and has one of the lowest crime rates. When a person is happy with where he is in life mentally and emotionally he has no valid reason to commit a crime. As DL smith famously said- "Well fed devils behave better than famished saints".One great tip for being happy is meditation, practicing gratitude and journaling your thoughts. Much love.

  • @ashwinjain5566

    @ashwinjain5566

    Жыл бұрын

    this mans single handedly solving worldwide crimes

  • @50shadesofbrown25

    @50shadesofbrown25

    Жыл бұрын

    @@ashwinjain5566 hahah just doing my part.

  • @Priapos93
    @Priapos93 Жыл бұрын

    Well stacked!

  • @jesseparrish1993
    @jesseparrish1993 Жыл бұрын

    True observations on crime stats. We've had a massive spike in the US in the last two years, meanwhile indications are that reporting rates have also declined. People give up calling the cops when they don't show up. That said, it's not completely hopeless. Usually, murder tracks fairly well with other forms of violent crimes, and murders are relatively easy to count.

  • @aruncv1373

    @aruncv1373

    Жыл бұрын

    There is a reason. Some neighbourhoods are deliberately left alone. These become test beds for drugs and prostitution rings. It’s a meticulous game to win votes of minorities. We have seen this in india. Ghettoisation is beneficial to politicians.

  • @jesseparrish1993

    @jesseparrish1993

    Жыл бұрын

    @@aruncv1373 Compare polling in NYC between white liberals and minorities on whether or not they want more policing. Al Sharpton - the man himself - described "Abolish the Police" as a "latte liberal" position. Letting crime go rampant is not popular with minorities. That's the paradox.

  • @NickCombs
    @NickCombs Жыл бұрын

    Kevin you didn't talk about inequality, which is a good indicator for violent crime. Also poverty, which is a good indicator for property crime. This isn't to say there aren't complexities we need to pay attention to. But it's not as if we have no strong results to inform our choices.

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