China's Economic Forecast: The View from Congress

Please join CSIS on Tuesday, November 28th from 1:00pm - 2:15pm, for a panel discussion led by Congressman French Hill (R-AR) on Chinese economic forecasting and its relevance to understanding China's foreign policy. The panel will discuss projections of Chinese economic growth, the factors that affect it, and events that could alter its current economic projection. Congressman Hill will facilitate this discussion with Jude Blanchette, the Freeman Chair in China Studies at CSIS and Logan Wright, Partner at Rhodium where he leads the firm’s China Markets Research.
Sentiment on China’s economy has grown increasingly negative in the past few months, with public discourse variously emphasizing structural issues such as debt, demographics, and China's deteriorating relationship with the West. This panel will explore the domestic factors driving China's economic predictions, how to judge the Chinese economy’s performance going forward, and the implications of China's economic future on the country's foreign and defense policy.
Beyond the SCIF (sensitive compartmented information facility) is an effort by House Intelligence Committee members to connect with experts and leaders in the national security field to create an open dialogue on threats facing the United States and ways committee members can counter the malign actions of our adversaries.
This event is made possible through general support to CSIS.
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Пікірлер: 114

  • @mejiger
    @mejiger5 ай бұрын

    You don't see other countries talking about American economy or European economy; why is the west obsessed with Chinese economy

  • @AnthonyTolhurst-dw1nc

    @AnthonyTolhurst-dw1nc

    4 ай бұрын

    Because they’re worried about Chyna outpacing Murican economy.

  • @aggiinoor

    @aggiinoor

    4 ай бұрын

    Just because you dont see them on youtube doesnt mean they are not happening.

  • @jkuang
    @jkuang5 ай бұрын

    Just want to call out the White Elephant in the room: China's slow 5% GDP economic growth in 2023 is the same miraculous 11% economic growth in 2012. Further, China is aggressively moving toward high value growth, in the sectors of microchips, large ship building, and EV cars. China has passed Japan in 2023 to be the largest car exporter in the world, and most of the cars are EV cars. China can now produce 7nm chips AT SCALE. It is at the forefront of computer chips manufacturing.

  • @cindylin335

    @cindylin335

    4 ай бұрын

    Chinese cars are mostly on the low end and most Chinese car makers don’t make money.

  • @jameskamotho7513

    @jameskamotho7513

    4 ай бұрын

    That's not the issue here, paid bot but whether or not the information is credible...

  • @MissAwa515

    @MissAwa515

    4 ай бұрын

    Where did you get that? In Europe, the price of BYD is in the same range with Tesla. And because the cost of the Chinese cars is lower, such as labor cost, supply chain cost, cargo cost, etc. the profit of the Chinese cars is actually higher than Tesla.

  • @MissAwa515

    @MissAwa515

    4 ай бұрын

    My reply is to that cindylin

  • @miiaw9354

    @miiaw9354

    4 ай бұрын

    @@MissAwa515yeah your data seems to be more trustworthy than Cindy

  • @joeyx4056
    @joeyx40564 ай бұрын

    1990. The Economist. China's economy has come to a halt. 1996. The Economist. China's economy will face a hard landing. 1998. The Economist: China's economy entering a dangerous period of sluggish growth. 1999. Bank of Canada: Likelihood of a hard landing for the Chinese economy. 2000. Chicago Tribune: China currency move nails hard landing risk coffin. 2001. Wilbanks, Smith & Thomas: A hard landing in China. 2002. Westchester University: China Anxiously Seeks a Soft Economic Landing 2003. New York Times: Banking crisis imperils China 2004. The Economist: The great fall of China? 2005. Nouriel Roubini: The Risk of a Hard Landing in China 2006. International Economy: Can China Achieve a Soft Landing? 2007. TIME: Is China's Economy Overheating? Can China avoid a hard landing? 2008. Forbes: Hard Landing In China? 2009. Fortune: China's hard landing. China must find a way to recover. 2010: Nouriel Roubini: Hard landing coming in China. 2011: Business Insider: A Chinese Hard Landing May Be Closer Than You Think 2012: American Interest: Dismal Economic News from China: A Hard Landing 2013: Zero Hedge: A Hard Landing In China 2014. CNBC: A hard landing in China. 2015. Forbes: Congratulations, You Got Yourself A Chinese Hard Landing. 2016. The Economist: Hard landing looms for China 2017. National Interest: Is China's Economy Going To Crash? 2018. CNN: Forget the trade war, China's economy has other big problems 2020. Economics Explained: The Scary Solution to the Chinese Debt Crisis 2021. Global Economics: Has China's Downfall Started? .... It's 2024 now, please keep going to to make your political prediction, and China economy is still going strong.

  • @Cibersocialismo1991

    @Cibersocialismo1991

    4 ай бұрын

    Neoliberalism is Dead 😅

  • @jianyangding6376

    @jianyangding6376

    4 ай бұрын

    Hard facts, thx for the summary

  • @YangZhang-ww6dv

    @YangZhang-ww6dv

    4 ай бұрын

    😂😂😂😂

  • @ycfoo4714

    @ycfoo4714

    4 ай бұрын

    😂. 3 experts or stooges

  • @SakuraGinny

    @SakuraGinny

    4 ай бұрын

    😂

  • @user-po5sn1is4w
    @user-po5sn1is4w4 ай бұрын

    If it’s so bad, why do you so worry about she?❤

  • @kshen7485
    @kshen74855 ай бұрын

    One of the big advantages and effectiveness of Chinese economy model is always under modification or adjustment to fit its high speed development and transformation in China, instead of western one that no one can challenge or change.

  • @Fr.VeniceLAI

    @Fr.VeniceLAI

    4 ай бұрын

    Absolutely agree how quickly and effectively the Chinese economic model, its growth and its high development can be transformed, like the last 4-decades of miraculous transformation of an impoverished nation, pre-1979, to present times, the PRChina attaining as the World's #2 Economy, following former Paramount Leader Deng Xiaoping's Economic Reforms and Adoption of Western Capitalism to permit and allow Chinese Private Enterprises to flourish and freedom to expand its businesses, locally and internationally. Exactly and precisely, following the present Paramount Leader Xi Jinping's course reversal back to Chairman Mao's Era Policies & Economic Models, it can be observed in the last just 3 years to 4 years, how quickly and drastically, PRChina's economic growth and development achieved over the last 4-decades, have had fallen and declined so much, via its Central Government's massive and unrelenting crackdowns carried out to destroy Chinese Private Enterprises as well as unleashing its Wolf-Warrior Diplomacy, causing de-risking and diversifications of Global Sourcing & Global manufacturing and Foreign Investments; re-locating, pulling-out, fleeing and moving away from PRChina. Just like a long, long line of moving Lemmings ... following the Leader, walking off the Cliff's edge and falling below to the rocks and be shattered to pieces !.

  • @lisahuang9543

    @lisahuang9543

    4 ай бұрын

    Yes, apart from changing their country leader Emperor Xi🤔

  • @pjacobsen1000
    @pjacobsen10006 ай бұрын

    Pretty nice discussion, but it seemed clear that while the two speakers had excellent knowledge of China, the congressperson, the moderator and the audience who asked questions unfortunately were wedded to the general media narrative about China. I blame the media again, for always presenting the most simplified, and the most sensationalist view on any foreign policy matter.

  • @Gingerzilla
    @Gingerzilla6 ай бұрын

    1:01:00 Exactly!

  • @k.k.c8670
    @k.k.c86705 ай бұрын

    This is coming from a country whose top politicians are wanting to declare 'communist garlic' as a national security issue. 😂

  • @eduardoangeles9876
    @eduardoangeles98765 ай бұрын

    These are so-called China Expert?? No wonder there hasn't been any comment and feedback on the conversion.

  • @MissAwa515

    @MissAwa515

    4 ай бұрын

    Get used to it. 😆

  • @ashybabs
    @ashybabs6 ай бұрын

    Brilliant discussion.

  • @misterwilliam
    @misterwilliam6 ай бұрын

    Starts at 5:18

  • @herokrime8795
    @herokrime87955 ай бұрын

    such low level debate on so claimed CSIS, very sad and disappointment on CSIS management.

  • @user-ve3zm9iy4y
    @user-ve3zm9iy4y4 ай бұрын

    Gov is rich,but most of people are poor

  • @kaimingraymondchoi9909
    @kaimingraymondchoi99095 ай бұрын

    There is a very powerful country on the planet which relentlessly looking for ways to contain China. This powerful country also has extensive information on the economic activities of China. The more they know about China the more effective would be their action against China. In view of this Chinese government has to do something such as reducing the transparency of their ecomonoic activities. This was foresaw by Deng before his death. He reminded his people to work hard and improve at the same time remain low key. With all the oppression from the West, China is facing a hard time. But all 1.4billion Chinese is desirous to withstand such oppression and stay afloat. These guys keep comparing US GPD with that of China. This is utterly ploitical statement but grossly un-professional. United States GPD "Worldwide" is far beyond reach by any country on this planet.

  • @PoiPoi5189
    @PoiPoi51896 ай бұрын

    Good stuff, thank you

  • @Kenny-vd5cw
    @Kenny-vd5cw4 ай бұрын

    Still in their own universe. Hopeless.

  • @robertprawendowski2850
    @robertprawendowski28506 ай бұрын

  • @singlendhot8628
    @singlendhot86285 ай бұрын

    If anything, the panel did not emphasize the need to increase the rate of decoupling from China, especially for the corporate stragglers hoping for Xi to warm up to them (Musk, Cook, half of Germany etc.)

  • @benwang9745
    @benwang97456 ай бұрын

    10 min in and everyone has spoken and said nothing.

  • @JohnKan-uo7ne
    @JohnKan-uo7ne5 ай бұрын

    Where China’s GDP went?

  • @Cibersocialismo1991
    @Cibersocialismo19914 ай бұрын

    A discussion in the liberal void, we no longer talk about the quality of GDP, social development and qualitative improvement in/and the ability to accumulate national physical stocks, the discussion revolves around 'Growth rates' not even GDP itself.

  • @ming-weihe7976
    @ming-weihe79764 ай бұрын

    The economic forecast almost never right. If the forecast is right you can be a hero and rich. If you give a task to forecast a economy, How can you be right?

  • @jessialiu831
    @jessialiu8315 ай бұрын

    so weird there’s no comments to this video

  • @mingyulu9820
    @mingyulu98206 ай бұрын

    discussion without solid data, waste of time.

  • @satriojumeneng7055
    @satriojumeneng70556 ай бұрын

    While Chinese people are getting more prosperous now, it is time for all countries to benefit from the Chinese market. Therefore, there needs to be a better direction than decoupling from China.

  • @61weihao
    @61weihao5 ай бұрын

    Wow. After 3weeks and 24k views, NO COMMENTS at all.

  • @MissAwa515

    @MissAwa515

    4 ай бұрын

    Probably because it's some cliche and their opinions are a little far from the reality.

  • @shuilee2781
    @shuilee27814 ай бұрын

    China is trying to curb the blowup of its property sector. Hence, the heavy reliance of GDP on the booming property sector is no longer an viable option. Still, we are seeing China economy is propelling ahead in a considerably speed. They are not only moving up the industrial chain value, at the same time also trying to grab hold on the existing industrial sectors. 15 years ago, the China's handphone market were overran with copycat model. 15 years later, the China's technonology industry are flooded with super resilient and competitive products, so and so until the developed countries are setting up some tariff barrier to kep the China' competitive products at the bay. The success of China hinges on its diligent, highly educated, and self-discipline people, same as all the east Asian countries like Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Singgapore. Still, United States will lead the way in quite a number of industry, due to its receptive and vibrant culture and political system. However, the shrinking white population in US might be grooming another problem. The country might be heading to a more polarised society which might divert its away from its vibrancy and resilience of its political system.

  • @legendbe2023

    @legendbe2023

    4 ай бұрын

    China's main problem in longer-term is its aging population.

  • @gn4107
    @gn41075 ай бұрын

    This is a political approch, nothing about the economc forecast....

  • @stevekim2017
    @stevekim20174 ай бұрын

    Instead of predicting those doomsday scenarios for China's economy in the future. The US should worry about her own economy and declining power around the world. If you know how geopolitics and global market flow, it is clear to figure out that America has lost its influence over the world.

  • @user-ed9so2rb4k
    @user-ed9so2rb4k6 ай бұрын

    I like the comment that China is not doing anything to progress the education of the Chinese people!!! Really??

  • @legendbe2023

    @legendbe2023

    4 ай бұрын

    They needed good workers but things might be different in the future.

  • @paulmatters2641
    @paulmatters26415 ай бұрын

    The US economic growth for 2024 is projected by their own experts to be 1.4% LOL

  • @frankxu9675

    @frankxu9675

    4 ай бұрын

    You really believe the 5% Chinese growth rate?

  • @kennyjong0303
    @kennyjong03036 ай бұрын

    talking about china's economy without even a chinese

  • @zhenwenlu2607
    @zhenwenlu26074 ай бұрын

    China has a closed system with an open mind. America has an open system with a closed mind. I wonder how many of these speakers have ever spend any decent time in China or able to speak the Chinese language in order to comprehend the Chinese mind.

  • @WWLooi-js8rl
    @WWLooi-js8rl5 ай бұрын

    I listened to think-tanks from the U.S., Taiwan, Singapore and China itself, one thing that stands out virtually all think-tanks from the U.S. categorically painted a negative outlook of China. Hmmm... wonder who is telling the truth.

  • @legendbe2023

    @legendbe2023

    4 ай бұрын

    Good to listen to different sides so you get a balanced opinion. China is no longer a fast developing country. It probably over leveraged debts and its cheap labor. There will be a period of paying back, which means low to no actual growth. Its all cycles.

  • @user-qr7bg1oj1m
    @user-qr7bg1oj1m4 ай бұрын

    Economists are obsessed with publishing information about the Chinese economy falling into recession, as if they believe that the Chinese economy will eventually face collapse after being slandered and cursed by them😂😂😂

  • @legendbe2023

    @legendbe2023

    4 ай бұрын

    It ready is in recession, probably temporarily but it's all part of cycles

  • @Fish_Ventura
    @Fish_Ventura6 ай бұрын

    Oh, but we are back to “hoping” some in China leadership agree and will work towards us,, again. Same old hopes from the swamp creatures.

  • @JohnKan-uo7ne
    @JohnKan-uo7ne6 ай бұрын

    What is the impact of China’s military spending on China’s economy? They seem to have guns and rice at the same time.

  • @user_thelongwayaround
    @user_thelongwayaround5 ай бұрын

    Why don’t people leave comments? 15 thousand views and 0 comments?

  • @herman2008springboke

    @herman2008springboke

    4 ай бұрын

    Spamouflage, better things to do

  • @user-dq9yy5mw9k
    @user-dq9yy5mw9k5 ай бұрын

    China will Bounce back 🔙 very soon okay so God bless China ❤😂🎉😢😮😅😊₹ .,........... ....

  • @dankuo8561
    @dankuo85615 ай бұрын

    Great insights into China's current and future state

  • @leebarry5686
    @leebarry56865 ай бұрын

    You guys want China to be smarter ?

  • @user-mk6hs6gr1l
    @user-mk6hs6gr1l5 ай бұрын

    原谅我,刚翻出来。怎么这么多老美喜欢做中国经济负面展望的视频啊。我从登陆到现在,清一色都是各种学校,各种论坛和各种讨论会。关键是时间跨度最长的还能有20多年。。。。。。这到底是在预测个啥呀。

  • @gdl-ut8hy

    @gdl-ut8hy

    4 ай бұрын

    你就当是他们在念哈利路亚

  • @fanfanfoxdddd
    @fanfanfoxdddd6 ай бұрын

  • @Fish_Ventura
    @Fish_Ventura6 ай бұрын

    Yeah, Kissinger’s legacy, we now have to deal with it. Thx for being wrong and endangering the world K.

  • @Fish_Ventura

    @Fish_Ventura

    6 ай бұрын

    We wanted to strengthen China, to help us with Russia if I remember my childhood correctly. Cold War stuff.

  • @user-vj4sn1hk3n
    @user-vj4sn1hk3n5 ай бұрын

    Not easy to guess but not pretty I think.

  • @wenfulin
    @wenfulin4 ай бұрын

    The three stooges 😂 repeating the lies and predictions on China.

  • @amunra5330
    @amunra53306 ай бұрын

    Pure speculation

  • @skatefulfill
    @skatefulfill5 ай бұрын

    There is nothing new here. This is just rehash of what everyone already knows. Its a bit hard to take anyone seriously who wears a tailored suit that includes a high water pair of trousers.

  • @digitalera696
    @digitalera6966 ай бұрын

    Will China’s arbitrary detention be a concern for foreign investors especially when geopolitical tensions pervade?

  • @CJ-vc1sh
    @CJ-vc1sh6 ай бұрын

    I guess Trump can give a better forecast than these so-called experts.

  • @kritsdja
    @kritsdja4 ай бұрын

    🎪 😅

  • @rossbaker9721
    @rossbaker97216 ай бұрын

    This guys sounds pretty psychotic. Claims to have killed thousands of terrorists then says we can’t know how many we have killed until after the war.

  • @ashar29
    @ashar294 ай бұрын

    Fake discussion love u china

  • @chiaweinam
    @chiaweinam6 ай бұрын

    wow, these guys know nuts about China

  • @christopherelliot4964
    @christopherelliot49645 ай бұрын

    So. . . hiding and ignoring embarrassing information from view is a very Chinese conceit. . .revealing the TRUTH WEAKENS you!

  • @bin.s.s.
    @bin.s.s.6 ай бұрын

    Spreading the apocalyptic myth feels good?

  • @2017phattang
    @2017phattang6 ай бұрын

    战略不是在国际上的各国市场是在我手上的全部有关系的国际贸易市场中心。多年我的警告中国、不是在其他国家的贸易市场中心而在我的主人主权下成展。一直把錯误的观点实行与对待一直背后急急急的互动交流贸易,而把事件变得更糟糕的事发生、從贸易关系改变成战争争夺。这全是中国的無知愚蠢、聪明反被聪明误,一直用付出金錢弄成自己手上而錯誤在于不是他们国家的擁有主权利益。 為什么没有头脑的想、所有人都争夺盗偷属于我的主人帳号?